Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Iran Talks Collapse and USD Gains Again (04.13.2026)​

US stock futures started the week lower after Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of US–Iran negotiations. Major indexes fell by more than 1%, while JD Vance left Islamabad without progress, citing unresolved disputes over Iran’s nuclear policy. Rising energy prices added pressure just as earnings season began, with major banks set to report.

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.35%, reversing last week’s decline as tension intensified. Higher oil prices reinforced inflation risks, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep policy tight for longer.

The dollar index moved back above 99, regaining ground as demand for safety increased. Persistent geopolitical strain and elevated energy costs continued to support the currency.

The 10-year government bond yield in Japan climbed to 2.48%, its highest level since 1997, as rising energy costs lifted inflation expectations and encouraged markets to price in firmer policy from the Bank of Japan. Negotiations between US and Iranian officials ended without agreement after 21 hours in Islamabad, with disputes over control of the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear policy still unclear.

Euro Falls as Diplomacy Falters​

The EUR/USD pair retreated as risk appetite vanished following the collapse of US–Iran negotiations. After 21 hours of fruitless dialogue, tensions flared when CENTCOM declared a maritime blockade on Iranian ports starting Monday. Iranian officials noted that trust remains unestablished despite diplomatic attempts. This deteriorating geopolitical climate spurred a flight to safety, fueling US dollar strength and pressuring the euro.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1720, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1640.

Gold Slips on Blockade Concerns​

Gold fell roughly 2% to under $4,700 on Monday, erasing previous gains as Donald Trump’s proposed Strait of Hormuz blockade heightened fears of a global energy crisis. The failure of US–Iran talks in Pakistan further fueled inflation anxieties. With rising energy costs, investors now expect central banks to maintain tighter policy or delay rate cuts, maintaining downward pressure on the metal, which has lost over 10% since the conflict began.

USD/JPY Finds Resistance Near 160.00​

The USD/JPY pair faced resistance during Asian trading as fears of official Japanese intervention curbed further yen weakness. Despite this, the dollar remains supported by the broader macroeconomic environment, preserving the pair's bullish bias. Technical indicators suggest additional upside, though a definitive move above the 160.00 threshold is essential to validate a stronger continuation of the current uptrend.

Initial resistance stands at 160.20, while the first support is located at 159.00.

Sterling Softens Against the Dollar​

The GBP/USD rate dipped to 1.3401 on April 13, 2026, marking a 0.46% daily decline. While the pound pulled back, it remains resilient over longer timeframes, holding a 0.61% gain for the month and a 1.60% increase compared to last year.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3460, with resistance around 1.3350.

Silver Slides Under $74​

Silver dropped nearly 3% on Monday, dropping below $74 as fears of a worsening global energy crisis took hold. Prices retreated after the US announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following deadlocked negotiations with Iran. While Washington cited ongoing nuclear concerns, Tehran reportedly sought control over the vital waterway. These geopolitical shifts have spiked inflation risks, fueling expectations of tighter central bank policy and leaving silver down over 20% since the conflict's onset.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $76.70 while support is located around $73.00.

First resistance is seen at $4800, with initial support near $4610.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 index traded at 24,937, gaining 0.14%. Over the past four weeks, the index has risen 1.14%, reflecting steady momentum.

Recent gains were supported by improved sentiment tied to ceasefire developments, yet shifting expectations after the weekend negotiations suggest conditions could change quickly. Equities remain highly sensitive to headlines across regions.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 25,250, with initial support near 24,700.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude surged about 8% to around $103 per barrel, recovering last week’s losses after the United States announced a blockade targeting vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports following failed negotiations. The restrictions are scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. Eastern Time.

The talks ended without progress, with Washington citing continued nuclear concerns, while Tehran reportedly demanded broader concessions, including control over the strait and access to frozen assets.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 104.40, with initial support near 100.00.

 

[zForex]

Middle East Drives China Trade​

China faces significant economic exposure in the Middle East, having committed over $269 billion to investment and construction projects in the region since 2005.

Saudi Arabia leads as the top recipient with $82 billion, followed by the UAE at $48 billion, Iraq at $40 billion, and Iran at $25 billion.

The region's trade ties with China have also surged, more than doubling since 2017 to reach $317 billion in 2024.

This figure is nearly four times the $85 billion in trade recorded with the United States during the same period. These numbers highlight China's deep and growing reliance on the Middle Eastern economy.

 

[zForex]

Markets Embrace Cautious Optimism (04.14.2026)​

Markets shifted toward risk-on sentiment as easing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy pressured the U.S. dollar.

The dollar index hovered near 98.3, holding close to six-week lows as improving sentiment encouraged a shift toward riskier assets.

Bond markets reflected the same shift. The US 10-year Treasury yield remained near recent lows around 4.29%, while Japan’s 10-year government bond yield eased to roughly 2.45%, pulling back from multi-decade highs as softer oil prices reduced inflation pressure.

Economic Calendar

EUR/USD Nears 1.18​

EUR/USD rose to the 1.1765–1.1770 zone, hitting a peak not seen since March as the US dollar suffered its eighth straight day of losses. Hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran, coupled with unclear Federal Reserve policy, have dampened dollar demand.

While improved risk appetite lifted the euro toward the 1.1800 mark, persistent threats to the Strait of Hormuz and potential energy shortages may cap these gains by restoring the dollar's appeal as a safe haven.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1770, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1640.

Gold Recovers on Diplomatic Hopes​

Gold climbed to approximately $4,760 on Tuesday, rebounding as the US and Iran signaled interest in negotiating a long-term ceasefire before their current truce expires. President Trump noted that Iran initiated contact following the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian President Pezeshkian expressed readiness for talks under international law.

Easing oil prices further dampened inflation fears, lowering expectations for higher interest rates. Even with this recovery, gold remains roughly 10% below its valuation from the start of the conflict.

First resistance is seen at $4800, with initial support near $4610.

USD/JPY Eases From 160.00​

USD/JPY pulled back from the 160.00 level as improving market sentiment dampened demand for the safe-haven US dollar. Optimism regarding a potential resolution to the US–Iran conflict encouraged investors to move away from defensive positions.

The yen found support as traders anticipated a Bank of Japan rate hike in April, following the decision to hold rates at 0.75% in March. Market focus now shifts to US Producer Price Index data and upcoming Federal Reserve remarks, both of which are expected to influence interest rate outlooks and drive further volatility.

Initial resistance stands at 160.20, while the first support is located at 159.00.

Sterling Hits Seven-Week High​

GBP/USD climbed past the 1.3500 threshold, reaching its highest point in seven weeks as the US dollar lost momentum. Although the announcement of a US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz caused a momentary flight to safety, investors quickly returned to riskier assets amid growing optimism for a diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3510, with resistance around 1.3350.

Silver Rebounds Above $76​

Silver rose toward $76 on Tuesday, recouping recent losses as the US and Iran signaled interest in negotiating a long-term ceasefire before their current truce ends. President Trump stated that Iran initiated contact following the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while President Pezeshkian confirmed readiness for talks under international law.

Easing oil prices further lowered inflation fears, softening the outlook for restrictive central bank policies and providing extra support for the metal.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $77.70 while support is located around $73.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded at 25,465, posting a daily gain of 1.06%. Over the past four weeks, the index has advanced by around 3.29%, while its annual performance remains notably strong at 35.24%.

Despite the recent momentum, forward projections point to a more cautious outlook. The index is expected to move toward 24,431 by the end of the current quarter, with the possibility of a deeper pullback toward 22,484 over the next year.

From a technical perspective, resistance is seen around the 25,810 level. On the downside, initial support is located near 25,250.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude surged roughly 8% to around $103 per barrel, recovering last week’s losses after the United States confirmed a blockade targeting vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports following unsuccessful negotiations.

Washington cited ongoing nuclear concerns, while Tehran reportedly sought broader concessions, including control over the strait and access to frozen assets.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 104.40, with initial support near 100.00.

 

[zForex]

Risk-On Mood Lifts Currencies and Metals (04.15.2026)​

While the United States continues to enforce a naval blockade on Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran is reportedly considering a temporary suspension of shipments to support renewed negotiations.

This shift in tone helped ease defensive demand for the US dollar, leaving the dollar index hovering near 98 on Wednesday, close to six-week lows and nearly wiping out the gains recorded since the conflict began.

The US 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.25% after two consecutive sessions of decline. Hopes for renewed diplomatic progress helped moderate inflation pressure, allowing yields to settle near recent lows.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield stabilized around 2.41% after easing in the previous session, as uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s policy path remained in focus. Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted the need to closely assess the economic consequences of the conflict, noting that higher oil prices could place additional strain on Japan’s growth outlook.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1800​

EUR/USD held firm near 1.1800 as hopes for renewed US–Iran negotiations weakened the dollar. Support for the pair stems from improved market sentiment and cooling US inflation, with talks expected to resume shortly. Further gains likely hinge on diplomatic breakthroughs, as ongoing energy and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz maintain the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted the bank is prepared for conflict-related risks but cautioned that it is too early to dismiss the war's full economic impact.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1800, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1770.

Gold Climbs Above $4,800​

Gold remained above $4,800 on Wednesday following a 2% gain, as hopes for a US–Iran peace agreement eased fears of an energy-led inflation spike. Reports indicate both nations are preparing for a second round of negotiations after previous attempts stalled.

Although the US maintains its naval blockade of Iranian oil in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is reportedly considering a temporary suspension of shipments to foster a better environment for the upcoming talks. This potential diplomatic shift continues to anchor the metal's recent strength.

First resistance is seen at $4870, with initial support near $4800.

USD/JPY Stabilizes Below 159.00​

USD/JPY remained below 159.00 as opposing market forces limited movement. While optimism regarding US–Iran diplomacy pressured the dollar, the yen failed to capitalize on this weakness. Persistent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten energy supplies, creating economic anxiety for Japan due to its heavy reliance on oil imports.

This ongoing resource vulnerability effectively offsets safe-haven demand, keeping the yen under pressure.

Initial resistance stands at 160.20, while the first support is located at 158.10.

Pound Climbs Toward $1.36 on Peace Hopes​

The British pound strengthened toward $1.36, hitting its highest point since mid February. This rise follows improved risk appetite fueled by hopes for US–Iran peace talks in Islamabad, even as the US blockade of Iranian ports continues. Falling oil prices below $100 per barrel further supported the currency.

However, persistent inflation risks and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz have shifted market expectations. Traders now anticipate a more aggressive Bank of England, pricing in nearly two interest rate hikes by the end of the year.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3600, with resistance around 1.3510.

Silver Surges Past $79​

Silver maintained its position above $79 on Wednesday after a powerful 5% rally, driven by the prospect of a US–Iran settlement. This diplomatic shift has mitigated fears of a massive inflation spike linked to energy costs.

While the US naval blockade persists, Tehran’s potential move to pause oil shipments is seen as a gesture to facilitate upcoming talks in Islamabad. Further aiding the metal’s ascent are retreating oil prices, which have slipped under $100, and a weakening dollar that recently touched a six-week low.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $82.00 while support is located around $77.70.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude traded near $95 per barrel, holding onto recent losses as attention turned to the possibility of renewed negotiations before the current two-week ceasefire expires. Donald Trump indicated that discussions could restart within days in Pakistan following earlier failed talks.

The United States continues its blockade of Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran is reportedly considering a temporary halt in shipments to support diplomatic progress.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 97.50 with initial support near 94.30.

NASDAQ 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded near 25,872, gaining 458 points or 1.81%. Over the past four weeks, the index has advanced approximately 4.93%, while yearly performance remains strong at 41.71%.

Projections suggest the index could move toward 24,431 by the end of the current quarter and decline further to around 22,484 within the next year.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 26.200, with initial support near 25.250.

 

[zForex]

Optimism Supports Markets (04.16.2026)​

Market behavior pointed to a gradual return of confidence rather than a full risk rally. Participants are responding to improving signals, but sentiment remains closely tied to the next developments in diplomacy and energy supply conditions.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Holds Near Pre-War Highs​

EUR/USD remained steady near pre-war peaks as optimism over a potential US–Iran deal supported the currency. Despite fresh US troop deployments and Christine Lagarde’s warnings regarding high energy costs, the ECB maintained a cautious stance on interest rates, keeping the euro supported amid shifting geopolitical headlines.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1840, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1800.

Gold Still Above $4,800​

Gold continues to be above the $4,800 level, finding support as hopes for prolonged ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran improved market sentiment. This recovery occurred despite persistent friction in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed under continued tensions.

First resistance is seen at $4870, with initial support near $4800.

Yen Recovers to 158.8​

The yen strengthened toward 158.8 against the dollar, reversing earlier losses. This rebound followed signals from Japanese officials regarding active discussions with US authorities and a firm commitment to intervene in the currency markets if volatility necessitates decisive action.

Initial resistance stands at 160.20, while the first support is located at 158.10.

Pound Stabilizes Near $1.36​

Sterling traded near $1.36, holding near multi-month highs as improving sentiment around potential ceasefire extensions supported the currency. While this optimism provided a steady floor for the currency, gains were tempered by a wary market reaction to news of further US military deployments in the region.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3600, with resistance around 1.3510.

Silver Tops $80 Amid Peace Hopes​

On Thursday, silver climbed past $80, nearing monthly peaks as traders weighed the potential for a lasting US–Iran peace agreement. While such a deal could mitigate inflationary pressures, the metal's price still remains notably below the levels seen prior to the conflict’s onset.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $82.00 while support is located around $77.70.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude stabilized above $94 per barrel after sharp volatility earlier in the week.

Sentiment improved on expectations of a possible ceasefire extension and broader cooperation between the United States and Iran, although uncertainty around shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued to cap confidence.

The resistance is seen at 97.50 with initial support near 94.20.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 climbed to 26,293, marking a strong daily advance and extending its upward trajectory. Performance remains solid on both a monthly and yearly basis, even as forward projections signal the possibility of softer conditions in the periods ahead.

The resistance is seen at 26.900, with initial support near 26.100.

 

[zForex]

Not a Surprise: A Repricing Move​

The recent rally in US equities may look sudden, but the groundwork was already there. Positioning, sentiment, and policy expectations had been building in the background.

One of the main triggers was the shift in US–Iran expectations. Markets were pricing a more disruptive scenario. When tensions showed signs of stabilizing instead, portfolios had to adjust quickly, pushing equities higher.

Positioning played a big role. Many investors were hedged for downside risk. As prices moved up, shorts were closed and hedges were reduced, adding fuel to the rally.

This is a familiar pattern. Markets don’t always move on new information. They move when expectations change and positioning gets forced to realign.

 

[zForex]

Markets End Week on a Positive Note (04.17.2026)​

Markets closed the week with a cautiously positive tone as expectations of continued US–Iran ceasefire discussions supported risk appetite. Progress around ceasefire discussions reduced immediate pressure and softened demand for the US dollar.

Gold Steady Near $4,800​

Gold held firm near $4,800 on Friday, heading for a fourth consecutive weekly rise. While doubts remain regarding reported peace terms, optimism over a potential US–Iran ceasefire has dampened inflation fears and interest rate expectations, providing consistent support for the precious metal.

First resistance is seen at $4840, with initial support near $4760.

Silver Nears $79​

Silver remained stable around $79 on Friday, positioned for its fourth weekly advance. Although deal specifics remain unconfirmed, growing confidence in a potential US–Iran ceasefire has cooled inflation worries and reduced expectations for further central bank rate hikes.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $81.50 while support is located around $77.40.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude eased toward $98 per barrel, trimming part of the previous session’s gains as improving prospects for a US-Iran agreement reduced immediate supply concerns. However, uncertainty over whether Tehran will formally accept the proposed terms continued to limit confidence.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 99.50 with initial support near 95.20.

Euro Remains Near 1.18​

EUR/USD maintained its position near the 1.18 level as growing optimism over potential US–Iran peace progress supported the pair. This upward support was reinforced by market expectations for prolonged ceasefire discussions and upcoming diplomatic sessions, both of which continued to pressure the US dollar.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1830, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1760.

Yen Weakens Past 159​

The yen dropped beyond 159 per dollar as Governor Ueda avoided clear policy guidance. He highlighted the difficult balance between rising inflation threats and potential economic slowdowns, causing the currency to retreat.

Initial resistance stands at 160.20, while the first support is located at 158.10.

Sterling Dips to $1.356​

The British pound eased to $1.356 as markets lowered expectations for a Bank of England rate increase. However, growing optimism regarding a possible resolution to the Middle East conflict helped limit further losses.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3600, with resistance around 1.3500.

Offshore Yuan (USDCNH)​

The offshore yuan strengthened beyond 6.81 per dollar, reaching multi-year highs following strong economic data from China. Concerns over supply chain disruptions linked to the Iran conflict remained a key risk factor.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8290, with support positioned near 6.8050.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 climbed to 26,335, posting a moderate daily gain and extending its upward trend. Performance remains strong on both a monthly and yearly basis, even as forward projections point to the possibility of softer conditions in the periods ahead.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 26.900, with initial support near 26.100.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)​

Bitcoin slipped to $74,672, extending its recent pullback with a modest daily decline. The cryptocurrency remains under pressure on both a monthly and yearly basis, though forward projections still suggest the potential for recovery over time.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 77,000, while support is at 69,000.

 

[zForex]

Inside Option Flows and Market Trends​

Markets are not moving just on headlines. A big part of price action comes from positioning in the options market and how those trades get unwound. If you only watch spot prices, you miss the real driver.

Expiration = Volatility
As expiries approach, things get messy. Market makers hedge aggressively, and those flows can push prices fast in either direction. Many “unexpected” moves are actually just hedge adjustments playing out.

Income Strategies Are Changing the Game
Covered calls and similar strategies are everywhere now. They generate steady income, but they also cap upside and create a steady supply of sellers. This adds a structural weight on rallies.

Who Is Trading Matters
More investors are shifting toward income-focused setups, especially as retirement approaches. That means more option selling, more liquidity, but also more hidden volatility when positioning gets crowded.

Bottom Line
Price is not just about data anymore. Option flows, hedging, and investor behavior are shaping the market behind the scenes. If you want to read moves properly, you need to watch that layer.

 

[zForex]

S&P 500 Hits Record Highs​

S&P 500 futures reached fresh all-time highs on reports of a second round of US–Iran peace negotiations. This rally has pushed the index up over 12% from its March 30 low, triggering a powerful short squeeze that is rapidly accelerating price gains.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin rose above $76,000 and reached its highest level in the last 10 weeks.

 

[zForex]

Risk Sentiment Fades with One Seized Vessel (04.20.2026)​

U.S. forces seized an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman, while Iran halted plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stepped back from talks. The resulting energy shock has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates unchanged through 2026.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed to around 4.27% on Monday, rebounding as renewed friction between Washington and Tehran revived inflation concerns.

In China, policymakers held lending rates steady for an 11th straight month, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%. First-quarter growth accelerated to 5% from 4.5%, keeping the official 4.5%–5% target in focus as authorities maintained a supportive policy stance.

Economic Calendar

EUR/USD Pressured Near 1.1750​

EUR/USD is struggling near 1.1750 as reignited US–Iran tensions drive investors toward the dollar. Reports that Tehran has rejected further talks due to "unrealistic expectations" have sparked fresh safe-haven demand.

This escalation, paired with energy-related inflation fears, has strengthened market conviction that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for an extended period, further weighing on the pair.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1800, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1720.

Gold Slips Below $4,800​

Gold fell over 1% on Monday, erasing previous gains as renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices higher and fueled inflation worries. The escalation follows the seizure of an Iranian cargo vessel by US naval forces in the Gulf of Oman, prompting retaliatory maneuvers from Iran.

Although President Donald Trump suggested a diplomatic resolution remains possible before upcoming discussions in Pakistan, Tehran has expressed significant skepticism regarding a deal. These rising geopolitical risks and energy costs have pressured the metal as markets reassess the global economic outlook.

First resistance is seen at $4840, with initial support near $4740.

Yen Retreats as Energy Risks Mount​

On Monday, the Japanese yen weakened toward 159 against the dollar, erasing recent gains as spiking oil prices, triggered by a sharp escalation in US–Iran hostilities, weighed on the energy-dependent economy. Following the US seizure of an Iranian vessel and Tehran’s subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude prices surged over 5%.

This geopolitical friction has overshadowed the Bank of Japan's outlook; while Governor Kazuo Ueda remains non-committal regarding a near-term rate hike, the central bank is widely expected to revise inflation forecasts upward to account for rising energy import costs.

Initial resistance stands at 159 .20, while the first support is located at 158.10.

Sterling Climbs Near 1.3600​

GBP/USD approached 1.3600 as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz increased market sentiment and dampened dollar demand. Lowered geopolitical tension has revived forecasts for Federal Reserve rate cuts extending into 2026.

The pound remains supported by persistent expectations that the Bank of England will maintain its tightening cycle, sustaining the currency's broader upward momentum.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3550, with resistance around 1.3440.

Silver Drops to $79​

Silver declined nearly 2% on Monday, retreating toward the $79 per ounce mark as heightened friction in the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices up and reignited inflation fears. This reversal follows the US seizure of an Iranian-flagged vessel, which prompted Tehran to target shipping and tighten its grip on the vital waterway.

Although President Trump suggested a diplomatic resolution remains possible before upcoming negotiations in Pakistan, Iranian officials have expressed deep skepticism regarding a potential deal, dampening market hopes for a swift de-escalation.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $81.50 while support is located around $78.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index climbed to 26,546, adding 1.29% on the day. Over the past four weeks, the index has advanced by 9.74%, while annual performance stands at an impressive 49.06%, underlining strong upward momentum.

Forecast models suggest the index could ease toward 26,086 by the end of the quarter and move closer to 24,402 within the next year.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 26.900, with initial support near 26.100.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude surged more than 5% to trade above $95 per barrel, reversing earlier losses as tensions intensified around the Strait of Hormuz. The move followed reports that U.S. forces seized an Iranian cargo vessel after it ignored instructions while leaving the region.

Tehran responded by targeting vessels and tightening its grip on the waterway, arguing that recent actions violated prior ceasefire arrangements.

Another round of talks is expected in Pakistan, yet the outlook remains uncertain as supply risks stay firmly in focus.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 97.20 with initial support near 94.00.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin traded at $74,438, gaining $565 from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, the cryptocurrency has advanced by 8.38%, signaling renewed buying interest, although it still shows a 14.95% decline over the past year.

Models suggest Bitcoin could reach around $77,683 by the end of the current quarter and potentially rise toward $85,254 within the next year.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 77,000, while support is at 69,000.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan remained stable around 6.81 per dollar, staying close to its strongest level since February 2023 after Chinese authorities left key lending rates unchanged. The one-year Loan Prime Rate remained at 3.0%, while the five-year rate held at 3.5%, marking the eleventh consecutive month without adjustment.

Policymakers appear focused on preserving stability as deflation pressures gradually ease, even as external risks, particularly developments in the Middle East, continue to shape the broader outlook.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8290, with support positioned near 6.8050.

 

[zForex]

Markets Stabilize Amid Diplomatic Standoff (04.21.2026)​

The US dollar index hovered near the 98 level as investors assessed the potential for a long-term peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Such a resolution could diminish the demand for safe-haven assets.

Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to lead the American delegation in Pakistan, with Iranian officials also expected to attend. However, President Donald Trump has cautioned that the current truce is unlikely to be extended without tangible progress. This geopolitical backdrop, combined with softer oil prices, has mitigated inflation fears, strengthening the consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates.

US stock futures edged higher as the market focused on the negotiations in Islamabad ahead of the impending ceasefire deadline. Despite earlier reluctance, Tehran’s decision to send delegates has provided a slight support to sentiment, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This follows a cautious Monday session where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreated from recent peaks, partly influenced by a dip in Apple shares following the appointment of a new CEO.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slipped to approximately 4.25%, reversing earlier gains as prospects of a diplomatic breakthrough eased hawkish policy expectations. Investors are also closely monitoring Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing as a potential successor to Jerome Powell.

In Asia, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell to 2.38% for a second consecutive day. This decline reflects ongoing ambiguity regarding the Bank of Japan’s policy trajectory. While the BOJ is expected to hold rates steady to monitor Middle East risks, it may soon signal a shift toward normalization. The bank is anticipated to hike inflation forecasts while trimming growth outlooks. However, the combination of lower oil prices and a stabilizing dollar has provided much-needed relief for both the yen and the Japanese bond market.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Slips on Renewed Iran Tensions​

EUR/USD drifted toward 1.1785 as stalling US–Iran ceasefire negotiations drove safe-haven demand for the dollar. Iran’s refusal to negotiate under pressure has clouded hopes for a swift diplomatic fix, driving investors back to the dollar.

While the euro remains capped by this uncertainty, the market expects the European Central Bank to hold rates steady in April, with focus now pivoting toward potential policy tightening in the coming months.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1800, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1730.

Gold Holds Near $4,800​

Gold prices stabilized above $4,800 per ounce on Tuesday as focus shifted toward the second round of US–Iran talks in Pakistan. Vice President JD Vance will again lead the American delegation, with Iran signaling its participation despite previous hesitation.

The stakes remain high ahead of the impending ceasefire expiration; President Trump has warned that the truce will not be extended without a formal agreement and that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until a definitive deal is reached.

First resistance is seen at $4840, with initial support near $4740.

Yen Weakens Amid BOJ Uncertainty​

The Japanese yen hovered near 159 per dollar on Tuesday as markets weighed the Bank of Japan’s cautious policy outlook. Analysts anticipate the BOJ will maintain current interest rates this month to evaluate the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict, though a shift toward normalization could be signaled for June.

The central bank is expected to adjust its economic forecasts, likely hiking inflation projections while cutting growth estimates to reflect the persistent impact of high energy prices and the geopolitical risks stemming from the Iran conflict.

Initial resistance stands at 159.20, while the first support is located at 158.10.

Sterling Approaches Key Support​

GBP/USD is retreating toward 1.3500, nearing critical support at its nine-day EMA and the base of its current ascending channel. This pullback follows an unsuccessful attempt to clear the two-month high of 1.3599, which stands as a significant hurdle.

Although the pair is easing, momentum stays constructive with the 14-day RSI at 59, suggesting further upside remains possible. While the bullish trend is preserved above 1.3500, a decisive break below this floor could trigger a more substantial downward correction.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3550, with resistance around 1.3440.

Silver Stabilizes Near $80​

Silver prices steadied around $80 per ounce on Tuesday following recent volatility, as market attention shifted toward the critical second round of US–Iran negotiations in Pakistan. Vice President JD Vance is set to lead the American delegation, with Iran indicating its participation despite earlier hesitation.

The stakes are substantial, as President Trump has signaled that the current ceasefire will not be extended without a formal deal, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked until a resolution is reached.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $80.40 while support is located around $78.00.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude retreated toward $95 per barrel on Tuesday, reversing some of Monday's gains. This decline follows news that Tehran will send a delegation to Islamabad for further negotiations with the US before the current two-week ceasefire ends.

The move signals a pivot from Iran’s previous refusal to re-engage in diplomatic talks.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 97.20 with initial support near 93.80.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index dropped to 26,658 on Tuesday, April 21, declining 0.31% from the prior session. This 82 point slide contributes to a broader 10.21% contraction over the last month, marking a clear short term correction.

While the index maintains a strong annual gain of 45.86%, current projections suggest further cooling. Forecasts indicate the index could retreat to approximately 26,086 by the quarter's end and potentially reach 24,402 within the next year.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 26.900, with initial support near 26.400.

Offshore Yuan (USDCNH)​

The offshore yuan remained stable around 6.81 per dollar on Tuesday, hovering near its strongest point since February 2023. This stability followed China's decision to maintain its benchmark lending rates for the eleventh straight month, leaving the one-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.0% and the five-year at 3.5%.

This neutral stance highlights a cautious approach by officials; while domestic deflation is cooling and the economy shows resilience, authorities remain wary of external volatility, specifically the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8290, with support positioned near 6.8050.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)​

Bitcoin traded at $75,632 this Tuesday, easing by 0.33% from the prior session. The cryptocurrency has faced significant pressure recently, dropping roughly 11.48% over the last month and remaining down 19.08% on an annual basis.

Despite this volatility, market projections suggest a potential recovery. Forecasts indicate the digital asset could rise to approximately $77,683 by the end of this quarter and potentially reach $85,254 within the next twelve months.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 77,000, while support is at 73,800.

 

[zForex]

Crude Oil Prices​

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon states that oil prices could hover around $80 to $100 per barrel in the next three to six months. However, a major escalation in the Iran conflict could drive those prices as high as $170.

While the current risk of a US recession has not seen a significant rise, gasoline prices reaching $80 by July would likely hurt economic data for the third quarter.

 

[zForex]

Markets Lose Confidence in Ceasefire (04.22.2026)​

U.S. Treasury yields held near 4.3% on Wednesday, supported by resilient economic data and ongoing tension in the Middle East after planned U.S.–Iran talks were scrapped. Strong retail sales reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady, while Kevin Warsh signaled a firm, hawkish policy stance.

The dollar index stayed above 98.3, reflecting continued demand for safety as Tehran indicated the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed during U.S. naval operations, even as the ceasefire was extended to allow new proposals.

Equity futures moved higher, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 up about 0.4% and the Nasdaq-100 rising 0.5%, as the ceasefire reduced immediate escalation risks. Attention now turns to earnings from Tesla, AT&T, Boeing, GE Vernova, and CME Group.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield held around 2.4%, with policymakers expected to leave rates unchanged while weighing the economic impact of higher energy costs and persistent external risks.

Despite a temporary extension of the ceasefire, persistent geopolitical risks and hawkish policy signals continue to weigh on sentiment across global markets.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Slips as Ceasefire Remains Fragile​

EUR/USD drifted toward 1.1750 as persistent uncertainty regarding the US–Iran standoff supported the dollar. While President Trump extended the current ceasefire to facilitate further diplomacy, the environment remains volatile.

Recent warnings from Iran’s military about potential responses to perceived threats underscore the fragility of the ceasefire. This blend of short term calm and underlying geopolitical risk continues to fuel safe-haven demand for the dollar, capping any significant gains for the euro.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1800, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1680.

Gold Holds Below $4,750​

Gold remained under $4,750 per ounce on Wednesday, continuing its decline as diplomatic prospects between the US and Iran faded. The cancellation of JD Vance’s Pakistan trip following Tehran's refusal to negotiate, coupled with ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions, weighed on the metal.

Despite President Trump extending the ceasefire, Kevin Warsh’s hawkish signals further dampened demand for the non-yielding asset amid high uncertainty.

First resistance is seen at $4840, with initial support near $4715.

Yen Weakens Amid BOJ and Geopolitical Shifts​

The Japanese yen hovered near 159.2 per dollar on Wednesday, pressured by ambiguity surrounding the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting. The BOJ is anticipated to hold interest rates steady to weigh the economic consequences of the Middle East conflict, though it may signal a shift toward normalization in June.

Markets expect the bank to hike inflation forecasts while cutting growth outlooks due to high energy costs. Additionally, the yen suffered as the dollar strengthened following the collapse of planned US–Iran peace talks, despite President Trump’s extension of the current ceasefire.

Initial resistance stands at 159.70, while the first support is located at 159.00.

Sterling Nears $1.35 as Dollar Weakens​

The British pound remained near $1.35, retreating slightly from a three-week peak as investors balanced domestic political noise with global friction. Sentiment was influenced by Olly Robbins’ clarifications regarding Peter Mandelson’s vetting process, alongside Iran’s refusal to engage in negotiations, which sparked criticism from Donald Trump. Despite mixed signals from recent UK labor data, the reports had little effect on the currency’s movement.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3550, with support around 1.3440.

Silver Slips Toward $79​

Silver stayed below $78 per ounce on Wednesday, extending losses as hopes for a US–Iran diplomatic breakthrough faded. The cancellation of JD Vance’s Islamabad trip following Iran’s refusal to negotiate, combined with ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, weighed on the metal.

Despite President Trump prolonging the ceasefire, hawkish signals from Kevin Warsh added further downward pressure amid high market uncertainty.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $80.40 while support is located around $76.20.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude jumped roughly 8% to trade around $103 per barrel, reversing last week’s decline after Washington announced a blockade targeting vessels connected to Iranian ports. The restrictions, set to begin at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, followed unsuccessful negotiations in Pakistan.

Tehran’s demands (including broader regional concessions and access to frozen assets) highlighted the depth of the standoff, keeping supply concerns firmly in focus.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 99.20 with initial support near 96.80.

Nasdaq 100​

The US Tech 100 continued to trade above 26,000, holding close to record territory as enthusiasm around artificial intelligence remained the primary driver. Gains have been persistent, supported by strong earnings from major technology firms.

Technical indicators suggest the rally is becoming crowded, increasing the likelihood of a pause or consolidation after the recent surge.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 26.900, with initial support near 26.400.

Chinese Yuan (USDCNH)​

The offshore yuan strengthened slightly to around 6.82 per dollar, recovering part of its earlier losses as corporate demand for yuan-based settlements increased. Ongoing discussions between Ecobank and the Bank of China on direct local-currency settlement frameworks highlight a broader shift toward diversified payment channels across Africa and Asia.

A firmer dollar following stalled negotiations limited the currency’s advance, even as the ceasefire extension kept diplomatic channels open.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8330, with support positioned near 6.8120.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)​

Bitcoin traded near $77,542 and continues its steady advance over recent weeks. Over the past month, prices have increased by approximately 9.36%, even though performance remains lower on a yearly basis.

Ongoing institutional accumulation and sustained inflows into spot ETFs have provided a solid foundation for the rally, while short-term price swings remain likely as the market digests recent gains.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 79,800, while support is at 75,400.

 

[zForex]

Strait Standoff Won’t Let Inflation Cool (04.23.2026)​

The United States and Iran remain locked in a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, restricting access following failed peace talks.

Trump confirmed that the ceasefire will stay in place without a fixed timeline as Washington awaits Tehran’s proposal, while Iran continues to resist negotiations under current conditions.

The ongoing disruption has pushed oil prices higher, pushing inflation concerns worldwide and raising fresh worries about supply shortages and broader economic strain.

With energy risks still in focus, inflation pressures remain persistent, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged while markets look to upcoming economic data for clearer direction.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.31%, its highest level in more than a week, as elevated energy costs reinforced expectations that interest rates will stay steady. The dollar index held near 98.5, close to a one-week high, supported by continued demand for safety.

Attention now turns to jobless claims and PMI data for clearer economic signals.

Economic Calendar​

Policy Patience Keeps Euro Afloat​

EUR/USD traded just above the 1.1700 threshold, hovering near 1.1710 after the extension of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire reduced immediate pressure on markets. Trump indicated that Iran faces no strict timeline to submit its proposal, allowing sentiment to stabilize.

ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks signaled that officials are comfortable waiting for more decisive economic evidence before reconsidering interest rates.

The pair faces resistance at 1.1760, while the nearest support stands at 1.1640.

Gold’s Shine Fades for Now​

Gold retreated toward $4,700 per ounce, surrendering earlier strength as persistent strain around the Strait of Hormuz continued to push energy costs higher. Iran’s firm control over the route and ongoing U.S. restrictions have tightened shipping flows, reinforcing inflation concerns and weighing on demand for precious metals.

The prolonged standoff has left the metal roughly 10% lower since the conflict began despite the open-ended ceasefire.

The metal’s first resistance is seen at $4770, with initial support near $4640.

Waiting on Tokyo, Watching Oil​

USD/JPY held steady as attention shifted to upcoming economic releases from Japan and the United States. Japan reported a ¥667 billion trade surplus in March, driven by 11.7% annual export growth, while imports climbed due to higher fuel costs.

Rising oil prices tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on the yen, keeping markets focused on forthcoming CPI figures, U.S. PMI data, and inflation expectations for direction.

Initial resistance stands at 159.70, while the first support is located at 159.00.

Pound Tests the Floor at 1.35​

GBP/USD slipped below 1.3500, now hovering around the nine-day EMA near 1.3493 after a brief pullback. Even with the recent decline, the broader structure still allows room for a recovery toward the 1.3599 peak if support remains intact.

The 14-day RSI near 56 suggests momentum is still constructive, though a sustained break below the moving average could open the door to a deeper correction.

The pair’s support stands near 1.3550, with resistance around 1.3440.

Silver Feels the Weight of Energy Costs​

Silver slipped to roughly $76 per ounce, reversing the previous session’s advance as continued restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz kept energy markets tight.

Iran’s control of the waterway and the ongoing blockade of its ports have disrupted global shipping and sustained upward pressure on fuel costs, intensifying inflation concerns and weighing on industrial metals.

Silver’s resistance stands near $77.80 while support is located around $74.00.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude climbed to around $104 per barrel, marking a fourth straight day of gains as diplomatic efforts stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed.

Iran’s firm grip on the route has constrained global shipping, while the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports has intensified the confrontation. With supply routes under pressure, energy markets continue to price in sustained disruption.

Brent faces resistance at 105.20, with initial support near 101.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The US Tech 100 advanced to 26,743, continuing its powerful run as demand for artificial intelligence technologies drove broad gains across major technology names. The index has staged a sharp recovery from earlier declines and now trades near record territory.

While individual stocks like Tesla have shown volatility, the broader trend remains upward, with valuations increasingly stretched after the recent surge.

Resistance is seen at 27,000, while initial support stands near 26,400.

Offshore Yuan​

The offshore yuan weakened to around 6.83 per dollar, marking a third consecutive decline and reaching its lowest level in more than a week. Demand for the dollar strengthened as confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz intensified, including the seizure of vessels and continued enforcement of shipping restrictions.

This environment has kept pressure on regional currencies despite ongoing ceasefire arrangements.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8520, with support positioned near 6.8180.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin hovered around $77,700, easing about 0.7% from the previous session after pushing into the $78,000-$79,000 zone. Institutional demand and improving sentiment have supported the broader structure, yet price swings remain evident, with performance still negative on both a monthly and yearly basis.

Strong trading volumes and repeated breakouts highlight active participation, while the $75,000 area continues to act as a key foundation for short-term stability.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 79,800, while support is at 75,400.

 

[zForex]

Geopolitics Reassert Control (04.24.2026)​

Markets moved into a risk-off phase as escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled US–Iran diplomacy supported the US dollar.

The dollar index hovered around 98.8 on Friday, heading for its first weekly gain in three weeks as stalled U.S.–Iran peace efforts lifted demand for the currency. Tensions intensified after President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to take action against vessels laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to uncertainty across markets.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to about 2.44%, its highest level in over a week, after inflation data pointed to renewed pressure from rising energy costs linked to the conflict. Core inflation rose to 1.8% in March from 1.6% in February, marking its first increase in five months, while headline inflation edged up to 1.5% from 1.3%. Even so, inflation remains below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, suggesting little urgency for immediate policy tightening.

The US 10-year Treasury yield also moved higher, reaching roughly 4.33% and extending gains for a fifth straight session. Ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept energy prices elevated, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy stance as markets continue to reassess inflation risks.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Hits Two-Week Low​

The euro slipped below $1.17 as the ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz and collapsed US–Iran diplomacy fueled risk aversion. This geopolitical friction, combined with grim economic data, has severely dampened sentiment.

April reports indicate the Eurozone’s private sector is contracting at its sharpest rate since late 2024. Furthermore, Germany has lowered its 2026 growth outlook, identifying surging energy costs as a primary obstacle. These factors continue to drive investors toward the dollar, capping the euro's recovery.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1720, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1640.

Gold Eyes Weekly Slump​

Gold remained under $4,700 per ounce this Friday, tracking toward a 3% weekly loss. Spiraling US–Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed energy prices higher, fueling inflation fears and expectations for tighter monetary policy.

Despite the continued ceasefire extensions, the prospect of rising interest rates has dampened the appeal of non-yielding assets. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty remains high, yet the shift toward hawkish central bank sentiment continues to cap gold’s upside.

First resistance is seen at $4730, with initial support near $4625.

Yen Nears 160 Threshold​

The Japanese yen weakened toward 160 per dollar on Friday, capping a 1% weekly decline despite intensified intervention warnings from Tokyo. Finance Minister Katayama signaled that authorities have a "free hand" to counter speculative moves.

Although March inflation data edged up to 1.8% due to the Iran-related energy shock, core prices remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. This suggests a likely policy hold next week, leaving the yen vulnerable to surging oil import costs and persistent Middle East instability.

Initial resistance stands at 160.00, while the first support is located at 159.30.

Sterling Finds Support​

The British pound stabilized near $1.35, recovering from recent lows while remaining near its weakest level since early April. Although strong PMI data suggested a bounce in business activity due to defensive stockpiling, global friction remains a headwind.

Stalled diplomacy and volatility in the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive sentiment despite the current ceasefire. Furthermore, local political noise surrounding an upcoming parliamentary hearing for senior Labour officials has introduced fresh uncertainty for investors tracking the currency.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3500, with support around 1.3410.

Silver Nears $75​

Silver dropped toward $75 per ounce on Friday, marking a 7% weekly decline as escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz drove energy costs and inflation expectations higher. Stalled diplomacy and ongoing naval blockades have intensified geopolitical risks.

Despite extended ceasefires, the market anticipates tighter monetary policy to combat rising prices. This shift toward higher interest rates has significantly curbed the appeal of non-yielding metals like silver.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $76.00 while support is located around $73.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The US Tech 100 traded close to 26,900, lingering near record territory while recent gains began to lose pace.

The broader trend remains upward, supported by sustained demand for artificial intelligence-related stocks, yet the advance appears stretched after weeks of strong performance.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 27.000, with initial support near 26.700.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude climbed past $106 per barrel, heading toward a weekly gain of nearly 18% as stalled negotiations and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightened global supply.

Naval activity and shipping disruptions across the region have restricted exports from key producers, keeping energy markets on edge. Despite temporary ceasefires, questions around transport routes continue to drive strong upward momentum in oil prices.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 101.50 with initial support near 97.50.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin traded around $78,000, pausing after a powerful multi-week advance despite a modest daily pullback. Institutional demand and steady inflows into spot ETFs have provided consistent support, helping prices remain resilient during short-term swings.

The market structure remains constructive, with attention centered on the $79,500–$80,000 area as the next major test, while support near $76,500 continues to anchor recent gains.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 78,900, while support is at 75,400.

Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan traded within the 6.81–6.83 range per dollar, holding near recent lows as demand for the U.S. currency remained firm during ongoing tension in the Middle East.

Weaker daily reference rates from the central bank added to the pressure, while the pair found support around the 6.80 area. Recent price action points to a period of stabilization, with the potential for short-term rebounds emerging as volatility settles.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8520, with support positioned near 6.8180.

 

[zForex]

Oil Market Sends Mixed Signals​

The global oil market is exhibiting a sharp pricing split as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz impact 15% of supply. While front-month prices have surged past $100 following a 500 million barrel inventory drawdown, longer-dated 2027 contracts remain relatively flat.

The gap suggests that while short-term shocks are priced in, the curve fails to reflect long-term risks. This pricing mismatch may offer strategic opportunities for investors as the market potentially underestimates lasting supply constraints.

 

[zForex]

Risk-On Start to the Week (04.27.2026)​

Markets opened the week on a more positive note as signs of potential de-escalation between the US and Iran weighed on the US dollar. The dollar index eased to around 98.45 after an initial jump tied to the cancellation of talks in Islamabad.

Political signals took center stage as Iran hinted the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and extending the ceasefire if restrictions are lifted, eyeing a path toward easing tensions after the cancellation of talks in Islamabad. The proposal helped steady sentiment across markets, even as the conflict entered its ninth week and continued to disrupt energy flows.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Gains Momentum​

The EUR/USD climbed toward 1.1730 during Monday’s Asian session as the US Dollar retreated. The Dollar Index slipped to 98.45, reversing gains made after the Islamabad peace talks collapsed. Sentiment improved slightly following Tehran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting blockades.

Market participants now brace for heightened volatility ahead of crucial policy rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the ECB.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1750, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1640.

Gold Rebounds on Peace Hopes​

Gold prices climbed back above $4,700 per ounce on Monday, recovering as Tehran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This fresh diplomatic offer through Pakistani mediators suggests a potential de-escalation by postponing nuclear discussions.

While the yellow metal found support from these easing tensions, gains remain capped. Persistent inflation risks and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates continue to keep bullion under pressure as central banks monitor the fragile ceasefire

First resistance is seen at $4730, with initial support near $4625.

Yen Holds Near 159.3​

The Japanese yen stabilized near 159.3 per dollar on Monday as markets anticipate the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision. While rates are expected to remain at 0.75%, the BOJ may lift inflation forecasts and trim growth outlooks due to the Middle East conflict.

Governor Kazuo Ueda is tasked with signaling a commitment to normalization to support the currency. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Katayama warned that authorities retain a "free hand" to take decisive action against speculative volatility.

Initial resistance stands at 160.00, while the first support is located at 159.30.

Sterling Reclaims 1.3500​

The GBP/USD climbed past 1.3500 on Monday, hitting a one week high as dip buying surfaced during the Asian session. The pair rose toward the mid 1.3500s as the US Dollar retreated. Risk sentiment improved following the reports of Tehran’s proposal.

Declining oil prices further cooled inflation fears, lowering the necessity for aggressive Fed hikes. Combined with anticipated Bank of England tightening, these factors have significantly supported the Pound’s near term outlook.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3500, with support around 1.3410.

Silver Gains on Geopolitics​

Silver climbed toward $76 per ounce on Monday, marking its second consecutive winning session as safe-haven demand intensified. Tensions escalated after US President Donald Trump canceled a Pakistani delegation visit, citing Tehran's diplomatic offer as insufficient.

This deadlock, coupled with the ongoing US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, has fueled fresh supply disruption fears. While these risks support the metal, surging energy costs could trigger persistent inflation, potentially inviting further monetary tightening that would curb upside momentum for non-yielding assets.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $76.50 while support is located around $73.50.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude drifted toward $102 per barrel after briefly approaching $104.

Earlier gains followed the suspension of diplomatic talks, which tightened supply conditions. Now in its ninth week, the USA-Iran conflict continues to disrupt energy flows, an impact the International Energy Agency describes as a significant supply shock.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 103.50 with initial support near 97.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq traded near 27,125, marking a gain of roughly 7% since the start of the year. Reports that Iran put forward a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz helped sustain positive sentiment toward technology shares.

Momentum remains firm, supported by strong corporate performance and continued interest in growth sectors.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 27.200, with initial support near 26.700.

Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan advanced to around 6.82 per dollar, hovering close to its strongest level since February 2023. The move followed encouraging domestic data showing China’s industrial profits rising 15.5% year-on-year in Q1 2026, highlighting resilience despite ongoing Middle East tension.

Producer prices have also begun to stabilize after a prolonged deflationary phase, easing pressure on manufacturers. Strong export performance continues to support the broader recovery.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8520, with support positioned near 6.8180.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin traded at $77,827, down $848 (1.08%) from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, the asset has declined 17.33%, with the yearly performance showing a drop of 18.06%.

Despite recent pressure, prices continue to hover within a well-defined range, suggesting consolidation rather than a structural shift.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 78,900, while support is at 75,400.

 

[zForex]

Silver Pressured Under $76, Eyes $69.40​

Silver continues to trade under pressure below the $75.70–76.20 resistance zone. As long as this area holds, downside risk remains in focus.

Key levels to watch:

$72.70 first support level

$72.00 next downside marker

$69.35–69.40 major support zone

Bias:
Failure to reclaim resistance keeps selling pressure active.

Gold Faces Ceiling at $4,670​

Gold slipped toward $4,600 as renewed US–Iran diplomacy eased immediate tension. Still, high energy prices and persistent rate pressure continue to weigh on the metal’s outlook.

On the 4-hour chart, $4,670 remains the key resistance. Unless price breaks and holds above this level, the head and shoulders pattern stays intact, pointing to a potential move of roughly $220 toward $4,450.

Diplomacy may slow the decline, but as long as rates stay high and $4,670 caps rallies, downside risk remains consistent.

 

[zForex]

Growth Slows, Inflation Lingers (04.28.2026)​

The dollar index held near 98.5 as new diplomatic updates from Tehran, including a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, eased pressure on defensive demand. Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve meeting, where policy settings are expected to remain unchanged.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.35%, a one-month high, as markets positioned for the Fed decision, which could be the final meeting led by Jerome Powell.

The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.75%, the highest since 1995, while raising its FY2026 inflation forecast to 2.8% and lowering the growth outlook to 0.5%.

US stock futures edged higher ahead of earnings from major firms such as UPS, General Motors, Coca-Cola, Visa, and Starbucks, with after-hours gains led by Bed Bath & Beyond and LendingClub.

Economic Calendar​

Inflation Gives the Euro a Pulse​

EUR/USD traded near 1.1720 in early Tuesday dealings, supported by firmer inflation expectations across the Eurozone. Market positioning suggests the European Central Bank is likely to keep borrowing costs unchanged while allowing more time to assess incoming data, helping the euro retain a steady footing.

Initial resistance is seen at 1.1750, while the nearest support stands at 1.1670.

Gold Tests Lower Ground​

Gold eased toward $4,650, extending its recent retreat as attention shifted to renewed dialogue between Washington and Tehran.

Reports that Iran may reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for easing restrictions reshaped expectations around supply risks and inflation pressures, limiting demand for the metal.

First resistance is seen at $4730, with initial support near $4615.

Tokyo Hits Pause, Yen Steady​

The yen moved back toward 159 per dollar after the Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged, while updating projections to reflect stronger inflation and slower growth in fiscal year 2026.

The revisions highlighted the economic strain linked to higher energy costs, keeping policymakers attentive to currency stability.

Initial resistance stands at 159.50, while the first support is located at 158.60.

Sterling Finds Balance Above $1.35​

The pound remained above $1.35, recovering from recent lows as markets prepared for a packed calendar of economic releases and central bank decisions. Current pricing points to the Bank of England maintaining its policy rate at 3.75%, providing a stable backdrop for the currency.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3570, with support around 1.3480

A Cooling Phase for Silver​

Silver traded under $75 per ounce, continuing its downward move as supply disruptions and persistent inflation pressures shaped demand across industrial metals. Renewed diplomatic activity added another layer of uncertainty, keeping price action subdued.

Resistance is seen near $76.70, while support is located around $73.90.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude advanced beyond $109 per barrel, extending the previous session’s climb as markets evaluated the chances of a sustained ceasefire and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following Iran’s latest proposal.

Ongoing supply disruptions continue to keep the energy market on edge.

Resistance is seen at 104.10, with initial support near 100.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded around 27,248, preserving its upward trajectory after a powerful four-week advance.

Momentum indicators remain supportive, although stretched conditions suggest the pace of gains could moderate in the near term. Maintaining levels above 27,250 keeps the broader trend intact.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 27.500, with initial support near 26.900.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)​

Bitcoin hovered near $77,122, slipping modestly as strong institutional inflows through exchange-traded funds balanced recent declines and lighter trading activity.

The broader structure remains constructive, with the $75,000 zone acting as a key anchor, though reduced liquidity leaves room for sharper swings if momentum fades.

The coin’s first resistance stands at 79,900, while support is at 76,400.

Offshore Yuan (USDCNH)​

The offshore yuan strengthened beyond 6.82 per dollar, remaining close to its strongest level since February 2023.

The move followed strong domestic figures showing China’s industrial profits rising 15.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, showing continued resilience in the manufacturing sector.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8420, with support positioned near 6.8180.

 

[zForex]

Gold Slips 2% Pre-Fed​

Gold fell over 2% on Tuesday as markets await the Federal Reserve’s April 29 policy decision. In Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Chair, officials are expected to maintain interest rates within the 3.50% to 3.75% range.