Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Dollar Strength Pressures Euro and Precious Metals (05.15.2026)​

Bond markets ended the week under continued pressure from inflation and energy costs. Japan's 10-year government bond yield pushed toward 2.7%, its highest level in almost ten years, after producer inflation accelerated to 4.9% in April. Higher oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict continued feeding price pressure, while BOJ policymaker Kazuyuki Masu openly supported a faster path toward rate increases.

US yields followed the same direction. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.5%, reaching a one-year high as recent inflation data strengthened the case for tighter Federal Reserve policy. Wholesale inflation recorded its sharpest rise since 2022, while consumer prices posted their strongest increase since 2023, driven largely by energy costs. Markets have now started considering the possibility of another Fed increase before year-end.

The dollar also gained traction, with the DXY approaching 99 and heading for a weekly rise of more than 1%. Stronger inflation readings and fading expectations for policy easing continued to support the currency, while attention still lingers on the Trump–Xi meetings in Beijing.

Equity markets paused after another record-setting run on Wall Street. Futures traded little changed as technology shares held onto strong momentum. Cisco rallied after lifting its outlook, and Nvidia extended gains after Washington approved additional chip exports to China, reinforcing optimism around the AI-driven rally.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Tests 1.1650​

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1650 as investors assess frozen U.S.–Iran negotiations and persistent geopolitical friction. The stalemate in peace talks keeps energy costs elevated, which feeds inflation expectations and complicates the monetary policy outlook.

This prolonged uncertainty continues to strengthen the U.S. dollar, keeping the euro under pressure.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1770, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1610.

Gold Slips Toward 4,600​

Gold declined toward $4,600 per ounce this Friday, marking a 2% weekly loss. Surging U.S. inflation data, fueled by Middle East instability and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, has solidified expectations for high interest rates.

With the Federal Reserve unlikely to cut rates in 2026, some investors are now pricing in a December hike to combat persistent geopolitical and price pressures.

First resistance is seen at $4640, with initial support near $4580.

Silver Continued to Drop for Two Days​

Silver declined toward $81 per ounce on Friday, marking its second straight day of losses. This retreat follows broader weakness in precious metals as surging U.S. inflation data, the strongest in years, fuels expectations for prolonged high interest rates.

With energy disruptions in the Middle East driving prices higher, markets have abandoned hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, favoring a stronger dollar instead.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $84.20 while support is located around $80.00.

Yen Weakens Toward 158.5​

The Japanese yen dropped to approximately 158.5 on Friday, capping a weekly decline of over 1%. A strong U.S. dollar and intensifying inflation expectations have solidified the case for continued Federal Reserve tightening.

Simultaneously, high oil prices due to Middle East conflict pressure Japan’s import dependent economy, even as BOJ officials signal gradual rate hikes to manage domestic inflation.

Initial resistance stands at 158.75, while the first support is located at 156.80.

Sterling Hits Four-Week Low​

GBP/USD declined to 1.3368 as a dominant U.S. dollar and intensifying UK political instability weighed on the pound. Strong U.S. economic data supports the Federal Reserve’s restrictive policy stance, overshadowing recent UK growth of 0.6%.

Ongoing domestic fiscal concerns continue to fuel volatility, keeping the pair under significant pressure.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3400, with support around 1.3340.

Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan softened toward 6.79 per dollar, stepping back from a multi-year high after renewed Taiwan-related friction surfaced during the Trump–Xi summit.

Although trade and energy discussions showed progress, warnings from Beijing over Taiwan added fresh uncertainty. Even with the pullback, the yuan continues to hold relatively firm for the week.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8020, with support positioned near 6.7800.

Nasdaq 100​

The NAS100 traded close to record territory near 29,372, extending a powerful rally supported by resilient demand for technology shares and continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence.

The index gained 0.73% in the latest session and is now up more than 11% over the past month. Momentum remains strong, though technical signals point to stretched conditions after the recent surge.

Resistance stands at 29,700, while the nearest support is located at 29,000.

Brent Crude​

Brent crude climbed above $106 per barrel, heading for a weekly advance of more than 5% as stalled diplomacy kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively restricted.

The prolonged stand-off between Washington and Tehran continued disrupting global energy flows, while Trump warned that the ceasefire remains fragile. The IEA also flagged persistent supply shortages as oil shipments through the region remain constrained.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 107.50 with initial support near 105.20.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin surged more than 2.5% to around $81,420, breaking above the recent consolidation range and reclaiming the $80,000 threshold. Regulatory optimism following the CLARITY Act and expectations of a more market-friendly Fed direction helped drive the move.

Strong institutional buying absorbed recent selling pressure, leaving the asset firmly above major moving averages with the $82,000 region now back in focus.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 82,800, while support is at 78,200.

 

[zForex]

The AI Rally Faces Its Next Test (05.18.2026)​

US stock futures slipped while attention turned to Nvidia earnings and upcoming results from Walmart and Target for a clearer read on AI momentum and consumer spending.

Oil prices and inflation concerns stayed at the center of markets as US–Iran tensions continued, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep policy tighter for longer.

The dollar index climbed above 99.3 to a six-week high, while the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.63%, its highest level since January 2025. Markets are now looking toward the upcoming FOMC minutes and PMI data for further direction.

Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached a 29-year high near 2.8% as rising energy costs and yen weakness strengthened expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike. Comments from BOJ official Kazuyuki Masu calling for faster tightening added to the move.

Economic Calendar​

Dollar Strength Pressures EUR/USD​

EUR/USD moved lower toward the 1.1620 region as dollar demand stayed firm on rising oil prices, Middle East tensions, and expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep rates restrictive for longer.

The euro continued to face pressure from weak Eurozone growth and persistent regional uncertainty, leaving the pair with limited momentum for recovery.

Bullion Cracks Under Inflation Weight​

Gold fell below $4,550 per ounce, extending last week’s sharp decline as the stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields continued to weigh on prices.

US inflation data came in stronger than expected, supported partly by higher energy costs tied to Middle East disruptions, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may keep policy tight for longer. Concerns surrounding stalled US–Iran negotiations and attacks on regional energy infrastructure also kept uncertainty high.

The first resistance is seen at $4,580, while initial support stands near $4,500.

USD/JPY is Back in the Danger Zone​

The yen weakened toward 159 per dollar, marking a sixth straight daily loss as expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy continued lifting the US dollar. Rising energy prices linked to Middle East tensions added to inflation concerns, while stalled US–Iran negotiations kept pressure on market sentiment.

With USD/JPY approaching the 160 level once again, attention is turning back to the possibility of intervention from Japanese authorities.

Initial resistance stands at 160.00, while the first support is located at 156.80.


For EUR/USD, the first resistance is located at 1.1770, while initial support stands near 1.1610.

GBP/USD Searches for Direction​

GBP/USD traded with mixed momentum as near-term technical support helped stabilize the pair despite broader weakness over the longer term.

Sterling continued to react to fluctuations in dollar strength, UK economic conditions, and shifting rate expectations, leaving the pair sensitive to incoming macroeconomic signals.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3340, with support around 1.3300.

Silver Dragged into a Deeper Pullback​

Silver dropped below $75 per ounce, marking a third consecutive daily decline as stronger inflation pressures and tighter policy expectations weighed on sentiment. The metal also faced pressure from a firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields after stronger US inflation data reduced hopes for Fed easing.

Additional weakness followed UBS lowering its silver demand forecast, pointing to softer industrial demand and improving supply expectations.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $76.30 while support is located around $72.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 moved lower toward 28,878 as markets paused after a strong AI-driven advance.

Although broader momentum in tech shares remained constructive, higher Treasury yields reduced appetite for growth stocks and triggered short-term profit-taking across the sector.

Resistance stands at 29,700, while the nearest support is located at 29,000.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude climbed above $107.5 per barrel, building on last week’s gains as supply concerns around the Strait of Hormuz remained in focus. Limited progress in US–Iran negotiations, reported attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, and tighter Russian crude flows continued to support prices.

The lack of progress following the Trump–Xi summit also added to uncertainty surrounding global trade and shipping routes.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 109.70 with initial support near 107.00.

Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan weakened toward 6.81 per dollar as softer Chinese economic data continued weighing on sentiment. Housing prices recorded their sharpest decline in nearly a year, while industrial activity slowed further amid weaker exports and pressure from external trade conditions.

Retail spending also lost momentum, highlighting fragile domestic demand despite a modest improvement in unemployment figures.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8350, with support positioned near 6.7800.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded near 76,925 as the market entered a consolidation phase following recent highs. Momentum softened after the latest rally, with rising Treasury yields continuing to pressure risk-sensitive assets.

Technical indicators remained mixed, showing cautious sentiment as Bitcoin tested lower trading ranges while resistance levels continued limiting upside attempts.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 78,200, while support is at 74,700.

 

[zForex]

Oil Above $110 Begins to Pressure Equities​

Brent crude climbed above $110 as US-Iran tensions intensified, shifting focus away from the AI-driven rally and back toward inflation and rising energy costs.

Bond yields remained near multi-year highs, while uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continued to add pressure across equities and corporate earnings.

 

[zForex]

Is the Worst of the Energy Shock Over? (05.21.2026)​

Signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations brought some relief to global markets, easing concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and pulling oil prices away from recent highs. The shift also softened inflation worries, though the policy outlook remains uncertain as major central banks continue navigating stubborn price pressures.

The ECB still faces pressure from high energy costs, while softer UK inflation and labour data have reduced expectations for further BOE tightening.

Debate continues over whether the Fed has finished raising rates in the US. Technology stocks extended their advance, gold and silver retained support from geopolitical uncertainty, and currency markets remained active, with the yen benefiting from intervention speculation while weak Eurozone growth weighed on the euro.

Economic Calendar​

Europe’s Growth Problem Takes Over​

The euro slipped below 1.16 as weak growth figures and expensive energy imports weighed on sentiment across the region. First-quarter GDP expanded just 0.1%, while inflation reached its highest level since 2023, keeping the ECB under pressure to maintain a restrictive stance.

With PMI surveys approaching, the next clue for the euro may come from whether business activity shows signs of stabilization or further slowdown.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1660, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1550.

A Pause in the Precious Metals Battle​

Gold remained above the $4,500 mark as signs of progress in US-Iran talks eased pressure across energy markets. Lower oil prices helped calm inflation concerns, reducing the urgency behind further monetary tightening. Even so, uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next move kept buyers and sellers locked in a wait-and-see battle.

First resistance is seen at $4550, with initial support near $4400.

Export Strength Gives the Yen a Lift​

The yen strengthened beyond 159 per dollar as softer oil prices and a weaker dollar improved demand for the Japanese currency. Optimism surrounding possible progress between Washington and Tehran raised hopes that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could ease, while strong export figures added support.

Despite the recovery, the 160 level remains firmly on the radar due to the possibility of official intervention.

Initial resistance stands at 160.00, while the first support is located at 158.20.

Inflation Relief Changes the Conversation​

Sterling traded just below 1.34 after inflation slowed to 2.8% in April, coming in below forecasts following the introduction of a new energy price cap.

Labour market data also pointed to softer conditions, with unemployment moving higher and wage growth losing pace. The combination prompted a reassessment of how much further the Bank of England may tighten policy this year.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3430, with support around 1.3340.

Silver Finds Some Breathing Room​

Silver held above $75 as improving sentiment surrounding US-Iran relations helped steady commodity markets. Lower oil prices eased concerns about inflation and reduced pressure for additional rate increases, creating a more supportive backdrop for metals.

The outlook, however, remains closely tied to future signals from the Federal Reserve.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $75.70 while support is located around $72.50.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude stabilized above $105 after a sharp selloff sparked by signs that Washington and Tehran may be moving closer to an agreement.

Hopes for the eventual reopening of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz improved the supply outlook, while successful tanker crossings added to the optimism.

Even so, supply constraints remain a concern, with industry leaders warning that a full normalization of regional flows could take years.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 105.00 with initial support near 102.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index climbed to 29,187, extending a strong advance that has delivered gains of more than 8% over the past month and 38% over the past year.

Enthusiasm surrounding technology and artificial intelligence drives performance, though longer-term projections suggest a more moderate path once the current momentum fades.

Resistance stands at 29,500, while the nearest support is located at 28,650.

Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan remained near 6.80 after China's central bank left benchmark lending rates unchanged for a twelfth consecutive month.

Policymakers appear reluctant to introduce fresh stimulus despite softer economic activity and rising energy-related inflation pressures. Broader attention has also shifted toward regional developments, including reports of a possible visit by President Xi Jinping to North Korea.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8350, with support positioned near 6.7950.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded near 77,876, posting modest gains while remaining largely range-bound over recent weeks.

Although prices remain far below levels seen a year ago, projections point to a gradual recovery through the coming quarters. For now, the market appears content to consolidate while waiting for a clearer catalyst.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 78,200, while support is at 74,700.

 

[zForex]

Japan’s Inflation Slows, Yields Rise (05.22.2026)​

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield held near 2.78%, remaining close to a three-decade high despite softer inflation data. Core inflation slowed to 1.4% in April from 1.8% in March, its lowest level in four years and below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a third consecutive month.

Across the Pacific, US Treasury markets showed greater stability. The 10-year Treasury yield held around 4.57% after two consecutive sessions of declines, as mixed signals from US-Iran negotiations left the outlook for inflation and interest rates less clear.

The same uncertainty carried over into currency markets. The dollar index traded near 99.2, close to a six-week high, while reports that recent negotiations had narrowed some differences between Washington and Tehran were balanced against lingering questions surrounding inflation and monetary policy.

Economic Calendar​

Europe’s Recovery Stumbles Again​

The euro drifted back toward 1.16 after fresh PMI figures painted a weaker picture of the Eurozone economy. Business activity contracted at its fastest pace since late 2023, with higher living costs weighing on consumer spending and service-sector demand.

Rising input costs added another challenge, pushing inflation pressures higher and raising concerns that price growth could move closer to 4% in the months ahead.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1660, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1550.

Diplomacy Offers Hope for Gold​

Gold remained above $4,500 as conflicting headlines from Washington and Tehran left the market searching for direction. Iranian officials suggested recent proposals had narrowed some differences, but reports that enriched uranium stockpiles would remain inside the country complicated hopes for a final agreement.

Markets also eyed reports that Iran is discussing a permanent toll system in the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, a move opposed by President Trump. Despite recent stability, gold remains below levels seen before the conflict, as persistent inflation concerns continue to fuel expectations that central banks may keep monetary policy restrictive.

First resistance is seen at $4550, with initial support near $4400.

Softer Inflation Takes Pressure Off the BOJ​

The yen drifted toward 159 per dollar and moved closer to a second consecutive weekly loss after inflation data weakened the case for immediate policy action. Core inflation slowed to 1.4% in April, the lowest reading in four years and the third straight month below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.

The figures reduced expectations for a near-term rate increase, leaving the currency without a strong catalyst for recovery.

Initial resistance stands at 160.00, while the first support is located at 158.20.

Britain’s Growth Streak Comes to an End​

Sterling held near 1.343 even as fresh PMI data showed the UK economy slipping into contraction during May, ending a year-long expansion streak. Businesses reported softer demand, rising cost pressures, supply disruptions, and job cuts, reflecting the economic fallout from regional tensions and domestic uncertainty.

The figures followed softer inflation data and signs of cooling labour-market conditions, reinforcing concerns about the strength of the UK economy.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3430, with support around 1.3340.

Silver Marks Time as Talks Continue​

Silver stayed above $76 and headed for a largely unchanged week as developments in US-Iran negotiations continued to shift the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

Officials on both sides pointed to areas of progress, but disagreements surrounding Iran’s uranium reserves remained a major obstacle. With no clear resolution in sight, precious metals balanced hopes for diplomacy against the risk of renewed tensions.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $75.70 while support is located around $72.50.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude futures climbed above $104 per barrel on Friday after reports indicated that Iran’s Supreme Leader instructed officials to keep the country’s enriched uranium stockpile within national borders, adding another layer of complexity to ongoing negotiations. The development sharpened disagreements with Washington, which views the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program as a central condition of any deal.

Despite Friday’s rebound, Brent still ended the week more than 4% lower as hopes for a diplomatic resolution continued to limit broader gains.

Resistance is seen at 106.00, while the nearest support stands at 102.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded at 29,354, gaining 60 points from the previous session. The index has advanced 9.60% over the past four weeks and stands 40.35% higher than a year ago, underscoring the sector’s strong performance.

Future estimates from Trading Economics models and analyst forecasts suggest the index could ease toward 28,540 by the end of the quarter and potentially drift lower to around 26,853 over the next year.

Resistance stands at 29,500, while the nearest support is located at 28,650.

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan held near 6.80 per dollar for a second consecutive session after the People’s Bank of China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged. The one-year Loan Prime Rate remained at 3%, while the five-year rate stayed at 3.5%, extending an unchanged policy stance for a twelfth consecutive month.

The decision reflects a cautious approach from policymakers despite signs of weakening domestic activity. Industrial production growth slowed to its weakest pace since July 2023, while retail sales expanded at their slowest rate since December 2022.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8350, with support positioned near 6.7950.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded at $77,683, rising 0.18%, from the previous session. Over the last four weeks, the cryptocurrency gained approximately 0.75%. Despite the recent improvement, it remains down 27.60% compared with a year ago.

Looking ahead, Trading Economics models and analyst projections indicate Bitcoin could reach roughly $79,364 by the end of the current quarter, with estimates pointing toward $87,826 over the next twelve months.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 78,200, while support is at 74,700.

 

[zForex]

Metals Start the Week with Fresh Energy (05.25.2026)​

Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement shaped markets at the start of the week. The prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing regional tensions weakened the US dollar, supporting EUR/USD, the Japanese yen, and the offshore yuan.

Gold recovered part of last week’s losses, while Brent crude extended its decline on expectations of smoother energy flows. Bitcoin posted modest gains, and the US 100 Tech Index continued its upward momentum, reflecting a broader improvement in risk appetite.

Economic Calendar​

Diplomatic Progress Lifts the Euro​

EUR/USD began the week on a firmer note as renewed confidence in a possible US-Iran agreement reduced demand for the US dollar. The pair climbed back into the middle of the 1.1600 range during Asian trading, recovering ground lost late last week.

Even so, the rebound remains in its early stages. Last Thursday’s slide to 1.1575 marked the lowest level since early April, leaving traders cautious about whether the latest advance can develop into a broader move higher.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1660, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1580.

The Rush to Safety Begins to Fade​

Gold moved closer to $4,600 at the start of the week, recovering part of last week's decline as expectations for a US-Iran agreement improved.

Reports suggested the proposed framework could include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing regional tensions, releasing certain Iranian assets, and creating a path for further discussions surrounding Tehran’s nuclear program.

The shift in sentiment encouraged buyers back into the market after several sessions of weakness.

First resistance is seen at $4590, with initial support near $4500.

Yen Finds Relief After a Tough Week​

The Japanese yen strengthened beyond 159 per dollar, bouncing back from three-week lows as falling oil prices and a softer dollar improved conditions for the currency.

Optimism surrounding a possible US-Iran agreement added support, particularly as reports pointed to the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy route for many Asian economies.

The combination of lower energy costs and reduced demand for the dollar helped reverse part of the yen’s recent weakness.

Initial resistance stands at 159.50, while the first support is at 158.20.

UK Data Disappoints, Sterling Steady​

The British pound remained comfortably above $1.34 despite a series of weaker-than-expected economic releases. Retail sales fell 1.3% in April, more than double the forecast decline of 0.6%, largely driven by reduced fuel purchases as higher prices weighed on demand.

Public finances also deteriorated, with the budget deficit widening to £24.3 billion. The figure exceeded forecasts and represented the largest April shortfall since 2020, highlighting ongoing pressure on government finances.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3520, with support around 1.3440.

A Brighter Start for Silver​

Silver advanced toward $78 per ounce, reversing part of last week’s decline as confidence improved around a potential US-Iran agreement.

The improvement in geopolitical dialogue supported demand for precious metals and helped silver regain momentum after a softer finish to the previous week.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $78.70 while support is located around $75.

Initial resistance stands at 159.50, while the first support is located at 158.20.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude futures dropped nearly 5% toward $98 per barrel, extending last week's losses as optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement gained traction.

Reports indicated the proposed arrangement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reduce regional hostilities, release frozen Iranian assets, and establish further negotiations focused on Tehran’s nuclear activities.

The possibility of smoother energy flows and lower regional risk encouraged selling pressure across the oil market.

Resistance is seen at 96.00, while the nearest support stands at 94.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index rose to 29,812, adding 124 points, or 0.42%, from the previous session. The index has gained more than 9% over the past month and remains over 39% higher than a year ago, reflecting continued strength across the technology sector.

Looking further out, Trading Economics models and analyst forecasts suggest the index could ease toward 28,883 by quarter-end and move closer to 27,160 over the next year.

Resistance stands at 29,500, while the nearest support is located at 28,650.

Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan strengthened to nearly 6.78 per dollar, reaching its strongest level since February 2023 as broad dollar weakness supported emerging market currencies.

Sentiment improved after comments from a senior US official suggested Washington and Tehran were moving closer to an agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Some caution remained after President Trump stated he would not rush into a final deal, leaving room for further developments in the negotiations.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8050, with support positioned near 6.7650.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded at $77,683, gaining 0.18% from the previous session. The world's largest cryptocurrency has added roughly 0.75% over the past four weeks, although it remains 27.60% below its level from a year ago.

Forecasts from Trading Economics and analyst estimates suggest prices could rise toward $79,364 by the end of the current quarter, with longer-term projections pointing to $87,826 over the next twelve months.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 78,200, while support is at 74,700.