Blockade Risks Affect Global Markets (04.29.2026)
The US dollar index held near 98.6, while the 10-year Treasury yield remained around 4.35% as markets prepared for the Federal Reserve decision, widely expected to leave policy unchanged. Attention also extends to other major central banks, while persistent tension in the Middle East continues to shape rate expectations.
US stock futures moved modestly higher ahead of key earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, which are set to offer insight into the strength of AI-driven investment. Some consumer and financial names advanced after results, even as earlier trading reflected caution in the technology sector.
Donald Trump instructed officials to prepare for a prolonged naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, targeting vessels linked to Iranian ports. Although Tehran has signaled openness to a temporary reopening of the route, the outlook points to continued disruption in energy flows and sustained pressure on global supply.
Economic Calendar
Euro Lingers Near Lows
The Euro is trading near $1.17, hovering close to two week lows as geopolitical uncertainty and major economic data weigh on sentiment. Investors are awaiting Eurozone GDP and inflation figures alongside pivotal central bank decisions. Recent caution followed President Trump's rejection of Tehran’s latest diplomatic proposal, heightening regional tensions.
Although the ECB is projected to maintain current interest rates, rising inflation expectations suggest a continued hawkish bias among policymakers for the coming months.
For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1750, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1670.
Gold Slips Below $4,600
Gold prices dropped below $4,600 per ounce on Wednesday, hitting a one month low as the Strait of Hormuz closure intensifies inflation fears. While Donald Trump noted Tehran's request to lift the US naval blockade, the International Energy Agency’s warning of a major supply shock has kept markets on edge.
These persistent energy disruptions reinforce expectations that central banks will maintain high interest rates, further dampening the appeal of gold as a non yielding asset.
First resistance is seen at $4640, with initial support near $4550.
Yen Nears 160 as BoJ Signals Gradual Tightening
The Japanese yen hovered around 159.6 per dollar on Wednesday, remaining dangerously close to the critical 160 threshold. Despite the Bank of Japan maintaining rates at 0.75%, officials raised inflation forecasts while lowering growth outlooks amid global instability.
Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at a steady tightening path, supported by several hawkish policymakers. Also, Satsuki Katayama reaffirmed that the government remains ready to intervene should the currency experience further excessive volatility.
Initial resistance stands at 159.90, while the first support is located at 158.80.
Sterling Faces Double Pressure
The British pound dipped toward $1.35 as geopolitical friction and domestic political tension dampened investor appetite. Sentiment soured following reports of Donald Trump’s dissatisfaction with Tehran’s latest diplomatic proposal regarding nuclear negotiations.
Locally, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a significant parliamentary challenge over a controversial ambassadorial appointment. With the Bank of England expected to hold interest rates steady this week, the currency remains sensitive to both these evolving political risks and global energy developments.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3570, with support around 1.3480.
Silver Keeps Under Pressure
Silver held near $73 per ounce on Wednesday, following a steep drop as the Strait of Hormuz closure heightens global inflation fears. The International Energy Agency’s warning of a major supply shock underscores the severity of Middle East energy disruptions.
These tightening supplies reinforce expectations that central banks will maintain elevated interest rates to combat rising costs. The prospect of prolonged high rates continues to weigh on silver and other non-yielding assets.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $75.50 while support is located around $72.80.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude traded near $104.15, holding firm as supply uncertainty linked to disrupted shipping routes continued to influence pricing.
A considerable share of global oil flows remains affected, while sanctions pressure and ongoing friction between Washington and Tehran keep the market sensitive to any diplomatic shift.
Brent’s resistance is seen at 106.20 with initial support near 102.90.
Nasdaq 100
The US 100 Tech Index traded near 27,180, posting a modest daily decline after an extended rally. Short-term swings have become more frequent, reflecting profit-taking and fast-moving liquidity conditions.
The broader structure still remains upward, supported by continued strength across major technology names.
Nasdaq’s resistance is at 27.500, with initial support near 26.900.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
Bitcoin traded around $77,000, easing after briefly climbing above $79,000. The retreat reflects profit-taking as markets digest shifting signals from the Middle East, including proposals aimed at easing tension around the Strait of Hormuz.
Even with the pullback, monthly performance remains positive, supported by renewed ETF inflows and institutional participation. Price action continues to suggest consolidation above key support levels.
Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 79,900, while support is at 75,400.
Chinese Yuan (USDCNH)
The offshore yuan traded near 6.83 per dollar, staying close to a multi-year high as companies increased hedging activity ahead of a heavy dividend season expected to total around $70 billion between June and August.
Forward pricing has encouraged firms to secure exchange rates early, while regulatory tightening and renewed tension between Washington and Beijing continue to shape sentiment.
USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8420, with support positioned near 6.8180.
US Investment Surges by 3.3%
US core capital goods orders rose 3.3% in March, marking the largest increase since 2020 and signaling continued strength in business investment, driven in part by spending tied to AI.
Durable goods orders also increased 0.8%, pointing to broader improvement across industrial sectors.
Key Drivers:
- Gains in communications equipment, autos, and parts
- Higher orders for military aircraft and machinery
- Continued investment supported by favorable tax policies
Dollar Surge Pressures Euro and Metals (04.30.2026)
U.S. equity futures pushed higher Thursday following strong results from major technology firms. Alphabet jumped 7% on robust cloud revenue, Amazon gained nearly 3%, and Microsoft advanced on accelerating Azure growth. Meta, however, fell 7% after issuing a softer spending outlook and slower user expansion. The earlier session had shown mixed performance after the Federal Reserve kept policy unchanged, while internal disagreements signaled rising uncertainty tied to geopolitical risks.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.42%, close to one-month highs, after the Fed maintained rates but pointed to a firmer policy path in response to persistent inflation. Four policymakers voted against the decision, highlighting widening divisions within the committee. Markets have now removed expectations for rate cuts this year and are even pricing the possibility of a hike in 2027, as energy-driven inflation and Middle East tension continue to support yields.
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 2.5%, reaching its highest level since 1997. The move followed rising oil prices linked to ongoing conflict in the Middle East and renewed signals from President Donald Trump that pressure on Iran will remain in place, reducing expectations for a swift resolution.
Economic Calendar
Euro Hits Three-Week Low
EUR/USD dipped below 1.17, marking its weakest performance in three weeks. This decline follows a surge in the dollar driven by the Fed's hawkish stance. Rising oil prices have further intensified inflation fears, increasing demand for the dollar as a safe haven.
For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1710, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1610.
Gold Nears Monthly Lows
Gold is trading near $4,550, holding close to a one-month low. Surging energy costs have heightened inflation fears, reinforcing expectations that central banks will maintain restrictive monetary policies. These persistent high-rate forecasts continue to limit any potential upside for the metal.
First resistance is seen at $4610, with initial support near $4490.
Yen Weakens Past 160
The Japanese yen dropped beyond 160 per dollar, hitting multi-month lows. Following the Bank of Japan’s decision to hold rates at 0.75%, investors are betting that upcoming hikes or near-term intervention will fail to provide the currency meaningful support.
Initial resistance stands at 160.50, while the first support is located at 159.80.
Pound Turns Cautious
The pound softened to around $1.35 as markets analyzed updated UK economic outlooks. Investors remain cautious while awaiting critical policy signals from the Fed and Bank of England, coupled with shifting headlines surrounding the ongoing US-Iran diplomatic negotiations.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3530, with support around 1.3390.
Silver Stalls Near Lows
Silver remained near $72 as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns. These pressures have intensified expectations that central banks will implement further rate hikes, keeping the non-yielding metal near its recent lows.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $74.00 while support is located around $71.00.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude climbed beyond $112 per barrel, extending a rally of nearly 15% this week as the ongoing Middle East conflict kept the Strait of Hormuz largely restricted, tightening global supply conditions.
Brent’s resistance is seen at 115.10 with initial support near 110.20.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 rose to around 27,250, recording a solid daily gain and maintaining strong performance across both monthly and yearly horizons, even as projections point to a slower pace of growth ahead.
Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 27.500, with initial support near 26.900.
Chinese Yuan (USDCNH)
The yuan strengthened toward 6.84 per dollar, stabilizing after recent losses as manufacturing PMI data signaled continued expansion and exceeded expectations.
USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8520, with support positioned near 6.8250.
Bitcoin (BYCUSD)
Bitcoin traded at $75,696, slipping slightly from the previous session while remaining weighed down by losses accumulated over the past month and year.
Even so, expectations for a gradual rebound continue to support the broader outlook.
The cryptocurrency’s first resistance stands at 77,600, while support is positioned at 74,900.
Eurozone Core CPI arrived at 2.2%, matching expectations and dipping slightly from the previous 2.3%.
Takeaway:
Core inflation is cooling slightly. No upward shock → less pressure for aggressive ECB action Reinforces a cautious, data-driven policy approach.
Market angle:
→ Modestly EUR-negative or neutral
→ Maintains stable rate expectations over hawkish shifts
...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Eurozone Unemployment for March reached 6.2%, matching both the prior reading and market forecasts.
Takeaway:
→ Neutral impact on the Euro
→ Reduces urgency for the ECB to accelerate easing
Takeaway:
Core inflation is cooling slightly. No upward shock → less pressure for aggressive ECB action Reinforces a cautious, data-driven policy approach.
Market angle:
→ Modestly EUR-negative or neutral
→ Maintains stable rate expectations over hawkish shifts
...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Eurozone Unemployment for March reached 6.2%, matching both the prior reading and market forecasts.
Takeaway:
- Labor market conditions stay resilient
- No immediate evidence of economic weakening
→ Neutral impact on the Euro
→ Reduces urgency for the ECB to accelerate easing
++ Update
Brent reacted quickly, briefly jumping toward $126 before pulling back near $116.50–$115. The sharp reversal shows how sensitive oil has become to strike rumors, shipping risks and Gulf-related headlines.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk point. Even without a full closure, blockades, tanker seizures or military activity near shipping routes could keep a risk premium in oil.
For traders, oil is now moving less on classic supply-demand data and more on escalation risk. Unless diplomacy improves or shipping flows normalize, Brent may stay highly reactive with sharp moves in both directions.
Iran Strike Rumors Keep Oil Volatility High
Oil markets turned volatile again after reports suggested the US may be considering new military options against Iran. Possible scenarios include strikes on Iranian infrastructure or operations around the Strait of Hormuz, keeping geopolitical risk firmly priced into energy markets.Brent reacted quickly, briefly jumping toward $126 before pulling back near $116.50–$115. The sharp reversal shows how sensitive oil has become to strike rumors, shipping risks and Gulf-related headlines.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk point. Even without a full closure, blockades, tanker seizures or military activity near shipping routes could keep a risk premium in oil.
For traders, oil is now moving less on classic supply-demand data and more on escalation risk. Unless diplomacy improves or shipping flows normalize, Brent may stay highly reactive with sharp moves in both directions.
A Cautious Start to May (05.04.2026)
Global markets opened May with currently being driven by a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, monetary policy expectations, and evolving investor sentiment. Equities, especially tech, continue to climb on strong earnings momentum, though stretched valuations leave little room for error.Tension around the Strait of Hormuz keeps oil elevated, feeding inflation concerns, while “Project Freedom” and renewed US-Iran dialogue offer brief moments of relief. The result is a market that shifts tone quickly, with commodities reacting to every headline.
The bigger picture stays fluid. Energy, inflation, and central bank signals are tightly linked, and markets are adjusting in real time. In this setup, agility matters as much as direction.
Economic Calendar
Euro Rebounds Above $1.17
The euro climbed past $1.17 in early May, bouncing back as markets weighed the ECB’s latest policy signals against surging energy costs. While interest rates remained unchanged, President Christine Lagarde noted a unanimous decision despite active debates regarding future hikes.
Persistent inflation risks and hawkish warnings from officials have intensified expectations for upcoming tightening. Market pricing now anticipates several rate increases throughout 2026, with the initial move potentially arriving as soon as July to combat worsening price dynamics.
For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1760, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1690.
Gold Holds Above $4,600
Gold prices stayed firm above $4,600 as markets weighed geopolitical tensions against potential diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran. Although high energy costs sustain inflation fears and hawkish central bank outlooks, the metal remains under its previous peaks.
Strong support persists, however, due to steady central bank acquisitions throughout the first quarter, preventing a deeper slide in the asset.
First resistance is seen at $4650, with initial support near $4580.
Yen Stabilizes Following Intervention
The Japanese yen settled near 157 per dollar this Monday after last week’s sharp rally, largely fueled by suspected government intervention. Traders are staying alert for further official action, as Japanese authorities often step in during periods of extreme volatility.
This recent recovery followed a drop past the critical 160 threshold. Despite these efforts, the yen faces ongoing pressure because of the wide interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which continues to favor the dollar.
Initial resistance stands at 157.90, while the first support is located at 156.80.
Sterling Hits Multi-Month Highs
The British pound climbed to nearly $1.35, marking its strongest performance since mid-February. This rally followed the Bank of England’s decision to maintain interest rates at 3.75%, a move supported by a nearly unanimous vote. Governor Andrew Bailey characterized the stance as an "active hold," signaling that the committee remains vigilant regarding inflation.
With surging oil prices creating fresh economic uncertainty, policymakers are closely tracking energy-driven costs, suggesting that the door remains open for future adjustments if price pressures fail to subside.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3630, with support around 1.3540.
Silver Gains on Diplomatic Progress
Silver climbed above $75 this Monday, continuing a two-day rally as Middle East tensions showed signs of cooling. Sentiment improved after news that civilian vessels would be escorted through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially easing trade disruptions.
Furthermore, Iran’s review of the latest U.S. diplomatic proposals has increased hopes for a peaceful resolution. While silver remains well below its conflict peaks due to its industrial nature, recent price stability indicates a market shift from defensive positioning toward a period of cautious optimism.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $76.70 while support is located around $73.80.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude traded close to $108 per barrel, stabilizing after recent declines. Sentiment improved following Donald Trump’s announcement of “Project Freedom,” aimed at clearing shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside signs of renewed diplomatic engagement.
Prices are still high given the strategic importance of the route and ongoing disruption risks. OPEC+ maintained a steady policy stance, signaling only a modest increase in output.
Resistance is seen at 110.10, with initial support near 106.50.
Nasdaq 100
The US 100 index advanced toward 27,776, maintaining a strong upward trajectory across multiple timeframes. Solid earnings expectations and relatively stable rate assumptions continue to support the sector.
Stretched valuations and broader economic risks still point to the possibility of slower gains over time.
Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 28,250, with initial support near 27,600.
Chinese Yuan (USDCNH)
The offshore yuan traded near 6.83 per dollar, with activity subdued during China’s extended holiday period.
Recent data showed manufacturing activity easing slightly but remaining in expansion territory, while private surveys indicated stronger momentum. Recent figures continue to reflect resilience despite external pressures.
USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8350, with support positioned near 6.8100.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
Bitcoin moved above $80,000, continuing its recent advance and reflecting strong short-term momentum. Despite this move, longer-term performance remains uneven, with annual returns still in negative territory.
Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 81,500, while support is at 78,200.
++ Update
USDJPY
A sudden surge in the yen kept markets alert for the possibility of renewed intervention by Japanese authorities. The currency strengthened to around 155.7 per dollar during thin Asian trading before easing back and stabilizing near 157. This move came after last week’s estimated ¥5.4 trillion intervention, which followed a break above the 160 level.
Unconfirmed intervention amid thin holiday liquidity has exaggerated price swings, leaving analysts to expect selective action and rate hike prospects to provide only near-term support.
Tensions Return to Center Stage (05.05.2026)
Global markets are navigating a renewed wave of geopolitical risk as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz intensify. The Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering around 98.5.
Economic Calendar
Euro Stabilizes Amid Rising Tensions
The euro traded near $1.17 in early May as investors assessed fresh US tariffs and growing signs of a June ECB rate hike. Geopolitical risks intensified after reports of an Iranian strike on a US warship in the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices to four-year peaks. These developments follow Tehran's warning that American involvement in the region would violate the existing ceasefire, fueling widespread market concern.
For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1760, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1640.
Gold Steadies Near $4,500 After Slide
Gold stabilized near $4,500 on Tuesday after a nearly 2% decline in the previous session. Heightened Middle East tensions have driven energy costs upward, intensifying global inflation fears. Market volatility follows reports that U.S. forces repelled Iranian attacks while escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, the UAE confirmed intercepting cruise missiles and attributed a major fire at the Fujairah port to an Iranian drone strike, keeping geopolitical risks elevated.
First resistance is seen at $4650, with initial support near $4500.
Yen Slides on Safe-Haven Dollar Demand
The Japanese yen weakened past 157 per dollar this Tuesday, reversing recent gains. This slide follows a strengthening USD, fueled by safe-haven demand as escalating Middle East tensions threaten the fragile four-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran.
Initial resistance stands at 157.90, while the first support is located at 156.80.
Sterling Steady Ahead of UK Elections
The British pound traded just below $1.36, maintaining its recent momentum near two-month highs. Investors are currently focused on Thursday’s municipal elections, where polling suggests Keir Starmer’s Labour Party may face significant setbacks. Oil prices continued to climb following reports of Iranian missiles striking a U.S. warship in the Strait of Hormuz, further escalating regional geopolitical instability and market uncertainty.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3630, with support around 1.3540.
Silver Under Pressure Near $73
Silver remained below $73 this Tuesday, struggling after a nearly 2% drop in the prior session. Rising Middle East tensions have driven energy costs upward, intensifying inflation fears and dampening demand for the metal as market participants weigh the impact of higher prices.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $73.80 while support is located around $71.50.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude held near $114 per barrel after a strong rally of nearly 6% in the previous session.
Developments in the Strait of Hormuz, including direct exchanges between US and Iranian forces, raised concerns about the stability of the existing truce and kept supply risks in focus.
Brent’s resistance is seen at 114.50 with initial support near 106.50.
Nasdaq 100
The US 100 Tech Index traded at 27,655, easing slightly on the day.
Over the past four weeks, the index declined 14.32%, while still showing a 39.73% annual gain. Forward projections point to levels around 27,134 by quarter-end and 25,476 over the next year.
Resistance stands at 28,250, while the nearest support is located at 27,600.
Offshore Yuan (USDCNH)
The offshore yuan strengthened toward 6.81 per dollar, reaching a two-week high during the extended holiday period.
Demand for yuan-based settlements increased, with transactions through the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) rising to CNY 1.46 trillion in March, nearly three times higher than five years ago.
USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8350, with support positioned near 6.8100.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
Bitcoin rose to $80,832, gaining 1.25% on the day. The asset is up 17.32% over the past month, though still down 16.51% yearly. Projections suggest a near-term pullback toward $79,959, followed by a potential move to $88,173 over the next year.
Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 81,500, while support is at 78,200.
Central bank gold buying rose by 36 tonnes in Q1 2026, reaching 244 tonnes, the highest level since Q4 2024 and above the five-year average of around 228 tonnes. For comparison, the 2016–2020 average was about 115 tonnes, less than half of current levels.
Purchases have now topped 200 tonnes in 10 of the last 11 quarters, showing steady demand. Poland led with 31 tonnes, bringing its reserves to a record 582 tonnes and closer to its 700-tonne target. Uzbekistan added 25 tonnes, while China bought 7 tonnes.
Central banks continue to increase gold holdings at a faster pace.
Software Dominance in Private Credit
Software firms now dominate the U.S. private credit sector, accounting for roughly 20% of all loans issued by Business Development Companies (BDCs). This exposure has doubled since 2016, surpassing Commercial Services at 19%, and far exceeding Healthcare or Commercial Products. Because BDCs offer retail investors access to mid-sized and distressed debt, this concentration is significant.Furthermore, true exposure likely exceeds reported figures due to inconsistent sector labeling. This hidden overlap complicates risk assessment, as private credit becomes increasingly tethered to a single industry.
Inflation Expectations Ease with Oil (05.06.2026)
Global markets remained sensitive to geopolitical developments and central bank expectations as investors monitored the ongoing Middle East standoff and shifting monetary policy outlooks.The pause in US military operations and the continuation of the ceasefire have eased pressure across markets, pulling oil prices lower and reducing some inflation concerns. This shift has supported both precious metals and risk-sensitive assets.
Energy prices continue to shape expectations around central bank policy. Earlier oil spikes strengthened the case for tighter monetary settings, while the recent pullback has slightly softened that outlook, though uncertainty remains high.
Economic Calendar
Euro Stabilizes as ECB Hikes Loom
The euro held near $1.17 while investors weighed escalating Middle East tensions and new U.S. trade pressures. High oil prices persist amid the ongoing standoff with Iran, while Donald Trump’s plan to pull 5,000 troops from Germany and slap 25% tariffs on EU cars added to the volatility. Though the ECB recently paused, its warnings on inflation have led markets to price in over three rate increases this year, signaling a shift toward tightening.
For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1760, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1660.
Gold Climbs as Tensions Ease
Gold climbed back above $4,600 per ounce, marking a second straight advance as signs of easing pressure in the Middle East softened oil prices and reduced inflation fears.
Washington stated that the ceasefire remains intact and confirmed the end of active military operations. Although sanctions tied to Iranian shipping remain in place, the temporary pause in Hormuz escort operations helped stabilize sentiment after energy-driven selling pressure weighed on bullion.
First resistance is seen at $4675, with initial support near $4580.
Yen Recovers Amid Lower Oil Prices
The Japanese yen strengthened toward 157.5 per dollar, recovering after three consecutive sessions of weakness as both oil prices and the dollar eased.
The currency remains highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East due to Japan’s dependence on imported energy, while markets also remain alert to possible official action following earlier suspected intervention.
Initial resistance stands at 158.10, while the first support is located at 157.20.
Sterling Softens Ahead of Local Polls
The pound hovered just above $1.35, pulling back from recent peaks as focus turned to UK municipal elections and predicted Labour losses. While high oil prices maintain inflation risks, leading markets to expect three rate hikes this year, the Bank of England recently held steady. Policymakers cited economic uncertainty from the Iran conflict as a primary reason for their cautious stance.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3610, with support around 1.3520.
Silver Rebounds as Tensions Ease
Silver climbed past $75 on Wednesday, recovering from earlier losses as cooling Middle East friction lowered oil prices and calmed inflation fears. Officials confirmed the month-long ceasefire holds, with U.S. focus shifting to protecting shipping routes. President Trump halted an initiative for stranded vessels to explore a potential deal with Iran, though the Iranian port blockade remains.
This rally follows weeks of pressure, where soaring energy costs fueled expectations that central banks would keep interest rates higher for longer to combat inflation.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $76.50 while support is located around $73.80.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude slipped below $108 per barrel for a second session after US officials confirmed that Operation Epic Fury had completed its objectives.
Washington also paused assistance for ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz while diplomatic channels with Iran are reassessed. Restrictions linked to Iranian shipping still remain in effect, and negotiations continue to face obstacles surrounding the naval blockade.
Brent’s resistance is seen at 110.50 with initial support near 106.50.
Nasdaq 100
The US 100 index jumped 363 points to 28,174, extending a powerful rally that has delivered gains of more than 16% over the past month and over 41% year-on-year.
Even with the strong upward momentum, projections continue to point toward a potential correction over the coming quarters.
Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 28,500, with initial support near 27,700.
Chinese Yuan (USDCNH)
The offshore yuan strengthened toward 6.81 per dollar, approaching its strongest level since March 2023 as demand for defensive assets eased following improving signals between Washington and Tehran.
Comments from Donald Trump regarding possible progress with Iran and future talks with China, combined with stronger domestic data, also supported the currency.
USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8350, with support positioned near 6.8100.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
Bitcoin traded near $81,285, posting modest gains on the day. The cryptocurrency has climbed nearly 13% over the past month, though yearly performance remains negative.
Current projections point to a limited near-term pullback before a possible longer-term recovery.
Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 82,800, while support is at 78,200.
+ Stock Market Update +
- Global stocks rallied on US–Iran deal optimism, led by tech.
- Brent dropped over 9% below $100 as bond yields and the dollar fell.
- Gold topped $4,700, and Bitcoin extended its rally.
- Sentiment rose on possible US–Iran nuclear talks, though no agreement is reached.
- Tech surged on strong AI investments and earnings from AMD and Samsung.
- Analysts say gains depend on Middle East de-escalation and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Lower Oil Changes the Market Equation (05.07.2026)
Markets opened with a softer dollar tone as optimism around a potential US–Iran agreement continued to build.The dollar index slipped below 98 after reports suggested both sides are nearing a 14-point framework deal that could end the conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and restart broader nuclear discussions. Lower oil prices eased inflation pressure and reduced demand for defensive positioning.
The Japan 10-year government bond yield in eased to around 2.49%, retreating from multi-decade highs as falling energy prices reduced strain on the import-heavy economy.
The US 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.35% after a sharp prior-session drop, with improving diplomatic prospects and softer oil prices helping calm inflation expectations.
Economic Calendar
Euro Nears Two-Week High
The EUR/USD pair held above 1.1750, hovering near its two-week peak as optimism for a U.S.–Iran peace agreement weakened the dollar. Fading geopolitical risks and reduced expectations for aggressive Fed tightening have dampened safe-haven demand.
Despite a minor dip following strong U.S. economic data, the pair recovered as market sentiment improved. Investors are now turning their focus to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report and upcoming macro data for the next clear directional signal.
For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1760, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1660.
Yen Gains as Intervention Fears Persist
USD/JPY dropped below 156.50 as investors evaluated potential peace developments between the U.S. and Iran. The yen found support from lingering caution that Tokyo might intervene again, particularly after the pair recently surpassed the 160 mark.
Additionally, hawkish rhetoric from the Bank of Japan regarding potential rate increases to combat persistent inflation has further constrained the pair's upward movement, keeping traders alert to a shift in policy.
Initial resistance stands at 156.50, while the first support is located at 155.20.
Pound Struggles Despite Strong PMI
GBP/USD found it difficult to hold above 1.3600 even after UK Services PMI beat expectations at 52.7. Investor attention is now locked on Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls. With job growth projected to plunge to 60K from 178K, this report could spark significant dollar volatility and dictate the pair's next move.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3610, with support around 1.3520.
Gold Steady Near $4,700
Gold remained near $4,700 following a 3% surge, as prospects for a U.S.–Iran deal dragged oil prices down and softened inflation fears. Washington reportedly used Pakistani mediators to deliver a draft memorandum aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
While cheaper energy reduced the perceived need for restrictive monetary policy, supporting market sentiment, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that war-driven inflation remains high. This persistent price pressure continues to provide underlying support for the metal.
First resistance is seen at $4720, with initial support near $4675.
Silver Stabilizes on Peace Hopes
Silver held above $77 following a sharp 6% jump, as potential for a U.S.–Iran breakthrough pulled oil prices down and eased inflation fears. Washington has reportedly used Pakistani mediators to propose a framework for ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
While the market awaits Tehran’s response and further nuclear negotiations, the drop in energy costs has reduced the pressure on central banks to keep interest rates elevated, providing significant support to silver's recent recovery.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $78.70 while support is located around $73.80.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude steadied above $101 after collapsing nearly 12% in the previous session.
Markets continued evaluating the likelihood of a diplomatic breakthrough after reports that Washington sent a proposal to Tehran through Pakistani mediators focused on ending the conflict and gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran is expected to respond soon, although broader nuclear discussions are likely to continue.
Resistance is seen at 104.20, with initial support near 101.80.
Nasdaq 100
The US 100 Tech Index climbed beyond 28,500, gaining more than 2% in the latest session and extending its monthly advance above 14%. Lower oil prices, easing geopolitical pressure, and reduced expectations for further aggressive Fed tightening continued to support technology shares.
Even with the strong move, projections still suggest some cooling later in the year, with forecasts pointing back toward the 27K region by quarter-end.
Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 28,800, with initial support near 27,700.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin traded near $81,100, easing slightly after struggling to maintain recent momentum.
The asset remains down more than 14% over the past month and over 21% year-on-year as high borrowing costs and broader uncertainty continue to pressure risk appetite. Despite this, longer-term projections still point toward a possible recovery toward the $88K region over the next year.
Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 82,800, while support is at 78,200.
Offshore Yuan
The offshore yuan strengthened toward 6.80 per dollar, extending gains for a third straight session and reaching its strongest level since February 2023.
Improving sentiment around a possible US–Iran agreement and hopes for smoother energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued to support the currency.
USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8350, with support positioned near 6.8020.
Japan likely spent $30 billion (¥4.68 trillion) in a second intervention to defend the yen near the 160 level. Analysts view these as short-term fixes against high US rates and energy prices. While markets price a 72% chance of a June hike, further intervention remains likely to curb volatility.
Optimism Returns to Markets (05.08.2026)
Optimism surrounding a possible US–Iran breakthrough softened the dollar and lifted appetite for currencies and risk assets, yet renewed friction around the Strait of Hormuz kept energy markets unstable.Oil, gold, equities, and crypto all reacted to the same underlying question: whether the current calm can hold long enough to ease inflation pressure and shift the direction of global policy expectations.
Economic Calendar
Euro Nears 1.18 on Diplomacy
The euro approached 1.18 against the dollar as growing optimism for U.S.–Iran diplomatic progress improved global risk appetite. While expectations for aggressive ECB rate hikes have softened, several policymakers remain vocal about persistent inflation risks within the eurozone. Currency traders are keeping a close watch on Middle Eastern geopolitical shifts for the next major market move.
For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1760, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1660.
Yen Weakens Amid Ceasefire Risks
The Japanese yen fell past 157 per dollar on Tuesday, erasing previous gains. A strengthening dollar, fueled by safe-haven demand, weighed on the currency as fresh Middle East tensions threatened to collapse the month-long ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, unsettling global markets once again.
Initial resistance stands at 158.10, while the first support is located at 157.20.
Sterling Hits Multi-Month High
The pound climbed past $1.36, marking its highest point since February as Middle East diplomatic progress lifted market confidence. Investors are tracking UK election results for their impact on Prime Minister Keir Starmer's political future. Additionally, expectations for another 50 basis points of Bank of England tightening continue to provide support for the currency's upward trajectory.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3610, with support around 1.3520.
Offshore Yuan
The offshore yuan strengthened toward 6.79 per dollar, reaching its highest level since early 2023 as optimism surrounding a possible diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran improved sentiment.
Markets also reacted to expectations around a future Trump–Xi meeting, while Chinese regulators reportedly tightened oversight on refiners linked to Iranian oil.
USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8350, with support positioned near 6.8100.
Gold Reclaims 4,700 Level
Gold climbed past 4,700 this Friday after a volatile previous session. Growing U.S.–Iran friction revitalized safe-haven demand, while ongoing inflation risks from high energy costs kept investors on edge. Although prices are recovering, the metal still remains well below the highs recorded at the onset of the conflict.
First resistance is seen at $4725, with initial support near $4675.
Silver Gains Amid Renewed Friction
Silver rose past $79 this Friday following a volatile session, finding support as Middle East tensions flared again. Renewed clashes between the U.S. and Iran dampened hopes for a diplomatic solution and reignited inflation fears, keeping investors cautious. Despite this recovery, silver prices remain more than 15% lower than their levels at the start of the conflict.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $80 while support is located around $77.70.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude moved back above $101 per barrel as renewed US–Iran friction revived supply concerns tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicated US forces intercepted Iranian attacks near the route, while negotiations over reopening shipping lanes remain unresolved.
The IEA estimates that nearly 14 million barrels per day of supply is still being affected.
Brent’s resistance is seen at 101.80 with initial support near 99.10.
Nasdaq 100
The US 100 Tech Index traded around 28,580, posting a slight daily decline. Despite a nearly 14% drop over the past month, the index remains more than 42% higher year-on-year.
Forecasts continue pointing toward lower levels later in the year, with expectations near 27,134 this quarter and 25,476 over the next 12 months.
Resistance stands at 28,800, while the nearest support is located at 28,500.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin traded near $79,314, slipping 0.9% from the previous session. The cryptocurrency has fallen more than 10% over the past month, while yearly losses approached 23%.
Current projections still point toward a recovery to around $79,959 by quarter-end and above $88,000 over the next year.
Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 82,800, while support is at 78,200.
Markets Lean Cautiously Risk-On (05.11.2026)
Global markets remained focused on the intersection of geopolitics and policy as investors tracked developments around Iran and the upcoming Trump–Xi summit in Beijing on May 13–15. Discussions are expected to cover the fragile ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz, trade tensions, Taiwan, and rare earth exports, while both sides also prepare agreements tied to agriculture, Boeing aircraft, and technology cooperation.US equities closed the week at fresh highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extending gains on strong labor data, resilient earnings, and continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. The broader rally persisted despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East.
The dollar index slipped below 98, its weakest level in ten weeks, even after strong employment figures. Markets continued balancing solid US economic data against concerns that higher energy prices could keep inflation pressure in place and delay future Fed easing.
Bond markets reflected a more cautious tone. US Treasury yields moved lower as investors sought safety following weaker consumer sentiment data, while Japan’s 10-year yield climbed on stronger wage growth and renewed concern over energy costs tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Economic Calendar
Euro Rises on Easing Geopolitical Risks
The euro rose past 1.175, reaching its best level in weeks as optimism regarding U.S.–Iran ceasefire talks lifted market sentiment. Support also came from expectations of further ECB interest rate hikes. While these factors pushed the currency higher, gains were limited by fresh trade friction after Donald Trump cautioned the European Union about potential tariff increases.
For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1770, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1660.
Gold Falls Below 4,700
Gold dropped under $4,700 after Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This renewed instability sparked fears of persistent inflation and prolonged high interest rates, weighing on non-yielding assets. Additionally, strong U.S. jobs data reinforced confidence in economic resilience, further dampening the metal's appeal as investors weighed geopolitical risks against a strong domestic outlook.
First resistance is seen at $4725, with initial support near $4645.
Yen Holds Steady Near 157
The Japanese yen remained around 157 per dollar, ending the week largely flat as Tokyo's warnings failed to spark a lasting rally. Despite official readiness to act, no new intervention was confirmed. While rising real wages in Japan support the case for further Bank of Japan policy tightening, the yen faces heavy pressure from a resilient U.S. dollar. Persistent geopolitical friction between Washington and Tehran also continues to weigh on the currency, offsetting domestic hawkish signals.
Initial resistance stands at 158.10, while the first support is located at 156.50.
Sterling Holds Near Highs
GBP/USD is trading around 1.3590, maintaining levels near multi-month peaks as the pound gains from a hawkish Bank of England stance and dollar softness. Ongoing inflation risks and energy cost pressures provide a solid foundation for rate hike expectations. Investors are now shifting focus toward upcoming U.S. inflation reports and UK GDP data, which will likely serve as the primary catalysts for the pair's next trend.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3610, with support around 1.3520.
Silver Consolidates Near Multi-Year Peaks
Silver is trading around $80.24, consolidating near multi-year highs as investors balance safe-haven demand against a stronger dollar and easing inflation fears. Middle East volatility and U.S.–Iran uncertainty continue to drive fluctuations, while upcoming U.S. inflation data dictates market sentiment. Despite short-term overbought signals, the broader technical outlook remains bullish, supported by resilient industrial demand and ongoing supply constraints.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $82.90 while support is located around $77.70.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude surged above $104 per barrel, gaining more than 3% as stalled US–Iran negotiations and renewed conflict risks tightened supply expectations around the Strait of Hormuz.
The move reflected growing concern over disruptions to global oil flows, with broader energy markets reacting in the same direction.
Brent’s resistance is seen at 106.50 with initial support near 104.20.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 continued trading near record highs, supported by ongoing enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and strong US employment data.
Stretched technical conditions point to the possibility of consolidation after the recent rally, with markets also tracking inflation data, Federal Reserve expectations, and geopolitical developments.
Resistance stands at 28,800, while the nearest support is located at 28,500.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin traded around $81,000, extending its recent recovery and holding above the $78,000-$80,000 region. Institutional demand and continued ETF inflows kept momentum constructive, while traders focused on the $83,000–$84,000 area as the next major test.
Support near $79,000 remains important if volatility increases.
Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 83,000, while support is at 79,000.
Chinese Yuan
The offshore yuan remained near 6.80, holding close to its strongest level in more than three years.
Stronger Chinese inflation figures and improving economic signals continued to support the currency, while softer dollar demand ahead of expected US-China diplomatic discussions added further momentum.
USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8020, with support positioned near 6.7800.
Euro Holds Firm as ECB Bets Rise (05.12.2026)
President Trump described the US-Iran ceasefire as being on “massive life support” after dismissing Tehran’s latest proposal, which reportedly included sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade, and continued Iranian influence over the Strait of Hormuz. Even with diplomatic channels still open, the standoff continues to unsettle energy markets, keeping oil prices firm and shipping routes under pressure.The shift has quickly filtered into bond markets. Japan’s 10-year yield climbed to its highest level since 1997 as traders increased expectations for a Bank of Japan rate increase, driven by rising fuel costs and broader inflation pressure. In the United States, Treasury yields also pushed higher as concerns grew that borrowing costs may remain restrictive longer than previously expected.
The dollar regained momentum as investors moved back toward defensive positioning. Ongoing uncertainty around Hormuz and the possibility of renewed confrontation continued to support energy prices, leaving inflation concerns firmly in place. Attention now turns to upcoming US inflation figures and the planned meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping later this week.
Equity futures traded with a softer tone ahead of the inflation release, though enthusiasm around artificial intelligence continued to keep major technology and semiconductor shares close to record territory.
Euro Holds Near Peaks
The euro stayed above $1.175, maintaining levels near a three-week high. Investors are balancing escalating U.S.–Iran friction with a growing likelihood of further ECB rate hikes. Soaring oil prices, driven by the Strait of Hormuz standoff and failing diplomacy, have intensified regional inflation fears.
Markets now expect at least two interest rate increases this year after Christine Lagarde confirmed the central bank's readiness to take swift action if price pressures persist.
For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1770, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1660.
Gold Falls Toward 4,720
Gold prices dipped toward $4,720 as a strong dollar and persistent inflation fears weighed on the metal. Uncertainty surrounding the U.S.–Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz disruptions kept oil prices high, intensifying worries about supply chains.
Investors stayed defensive before crucial U.S. inflation reports, while talk of possible new military operations in the Middle East added a fresh layer of geopolitical risk to the global market outlook.
First resistance is seen at $4770, with initial support near $4675.
Silver Dips Toward 85
Silver fell toward $85 as initial gains disappeared. High oil prices and inflation fears, driven by Middle East volatility and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, weighed on the metal. Donald Trump's comments on the unstable U.S.–Iran ceasefire further clouded the outlook.
While industrial growth and safe-haven needs previously supported prices, investors have now moved to the sidelines ahead of critical U.S. inflation data to find a clearer trend.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $87.80 while support is located around $83.20
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3610, with support around 1.3520.
Yen Weakens Toward 157.5
The Japanese yen slipped to around 157.5 per dollar for a second day as a dominant dollar and U.S.–Iran ceasefire uncertainty fueled inflation risks. Investors are monitoring high-level discussions between Japanese and U.S. officials for signs of currency intervention.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan suggested that soaring oil prices might provide enough inflationary pressure to justify additional interest rate hikes soon, even as geopolitical volatility continues to support the dollar.
Initial resistance stands at 158.10, while the first support is located at 156.50.
Sterling Eyes 1.36 Level
GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias near 1.36, consolidating close to multi-month peaks ahead of the pivotal U.S. inflation report. A hawkish Bank of England stance and broader dollar weakness continue to underpin the pound.
However, upward momentum has slowed as investors evaluate stiff technical resistance, UK political developments, and global geopolitical risks, keeping the pair in a cautious holding pattern before the next volatility catalyst.
Chinese Yuan
The offshore yuan remained firm near 6.79 per dollar, its strongest level since early 2023, supported by stronger trade data and growing attention around the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting. Chinese exports jumped sharply in April, while imports also reached record levels, reflecting resilient demand tied in part to AI-related investment.
Inflation figures also pointed to gradually strengthening price pressure as markets prepared for high-level discussions between Washington and Beijing.
USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8020, with support positioned near 6.7800.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude climbed above $105 per barrel as renewed strain between the United States and Iran increased concern about prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump described the ceasefire as being on massive life support after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal. Markets also weighed reports of possible US military planning and shipping escorts, while Saudi Aramco warned that ongoing supply interruptions could delay stabilization in global energy markets.
Brent’s resistance is seen at 106.50 with initial support near 104.20.
Nasdaq 100
The US 100 Tech Index advanced toward 29,204, extending a powerful rally driven by earnings strength and continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence.
Technical signals now point to stretched conditions after the recent surge, leaving room for a period of consolidation.
Resistance stands at 29,400, while the nearest support is located at 29,150.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin traded near $81,200, easing slightly after stalling below the key $82,000 barrier following a strong recent run. Institutional demand and continued ETF inflows continued to support the broader structure, while inflation risks, Federal Reserve expectations, and Middle East developments remained central to sentiment.
Technical indicators still point to constructive medium-term momentum despite near-term consolidation.
Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 82,800, while support is at 78,200.
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