Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

Discussion in 'Trading Systems and Strategies' started by Nigel Price, Jul 1, 2013.

  1. jasper

    jasper Trader

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    Hi Nigel
    I have been trying to find a thread on the gold trades following last weeks reversal on the weekly charts??
    Jasper
     
  2. basilc

    basilc Trader

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    Good evening Nigel,

    The quality of feedback I received after dropping my small pebble into the Forum pool last Friday, speaks volumes about the remarkable thread you created when introducing the PAST Strategy on 1st July 2013! Thanks to one and all - it is much appreciated.

    From now on I shall resist the temptation to dive in until after the CLOSE of the first Weekly candle depicting a new trend. Had I been more patient, as frequently suggested in PAST strategy, I'd not have been stopped out 8 times in succession. And being stopped out twice at breakeven after showing nice potential profits merely added salt to the wounds. OUCH!

    I might not be gaining pips yet but I'm certainly gaining experience.

    Sláinte.
     
  3. Olu

    Olu Master Trader

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    usdjpy

    Abe got the better of his counterparts in the elections but the usdjpy didnt soar. I then sold it as shown on the chart. It is a free trade now and if it rallies back to the entry point there is still a profit made on this trade

    Olu
     

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  4. Olu

    Olu Master Trader

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    Thanks for the above clarification. :D

    Olu
     
  5. Nigel Price

    Nigel Price Master Trader

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    Classic case of buy the rumour, sell the fact Olu!

    Have to admit, reading the coverage over the weekend I was thinking the elections could send USD/JPY on its way again to the upside. Just goes to show, you can never know for sure what way a market is going to react! Pointless trying to predict it.

    I was looking at long gold last week and l spent the whole week reading about how catastrophically bearish the gold chart is, 900 and below, etc. Now that it's popped above 1300 everyone is saying massive short squeeze, record shorts, etc.

    The news really does just follow the price.

    Good luck for the coming week!
     
  6. Nigel Price

    Nigel Price Master Trader

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    Hi Jasper, thanks for the question.

    I didn't manage to get in here to post about the gold trade last week unfortunately, I had a few more pressing things going on here that needed my attention.

    However I'm more than happy to go through it now for you.

    For me, it wasn't a clean trade at all, and I currently don't have a position. Which is unfortunate for me, because price has moved to the upside quite nicely. But first and foremost I always concentrate on keeping my losses to a minimum and I'm happy I did that.

    Here is the weekly reversal signal in gold that I was watching:
     

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  7. Nigel Price

    Nigel Price Master Trader

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    And below is the 4 hour chart as I saw it at the time.

    I was hoping for a clean break of the trendline, perhaps a retest, and then a move away to the upside.
     

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  8. Nigel Price

    Nigel Price Master Trader

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    And here is the updated chart. As we can see, price did largely follow the path that we thought it would, just not in a very tidy fashion.

    As traders, we have to be able to cope with this - price will rarely behave exactly as you expect, in fact most often it will do the exact opposite.

    It's not the ability to predict the direction of price that separates the profitable traders from the unprofitable, it is the ability to control losses and exploit opportunities when they arrive.

    Hope this helps Jasper. Good luck :D
     

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  9. Olu

    Olu Master Trader

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    usdjpy

    The waiting continues...
     

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  10. basilc

    basilc Trader

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    I haven't figured out how to post charts yet but for what it's worth, I'm short NZDJPY after making absolutely sure all PAST criteria have been satisfied. Profit target is ± 800 pips!

    Sláinte
     
  11. Nigel Price

    Nigel Price Master Trader

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    A very good infographic on realistic expectations in trading:

    http://forexuseful.com/authors/forex-useful/forex-realistic-monthly-returns-infographic

    The combination of wild expectations and the use of large amounts of leverage to attempt to achieve them is what takes many traders out of the game prematurely.

    In the case of the PAST Strategy, where it is possible to endure a long period of small losers before seeing a large winner, a lot of traders will trade too large during the losing period and then will not be around for the big winner when it comes.

    Something to bear in mind... :D
     
  12. Olu

    Olu Master Trader

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    excellent going...:D

    Olu
     
  13. Olu

    Olu Master Trader

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    UsdJpy Update

    Latest Developments
     

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  14. Nigel Price

    Nigel Price Master Trader

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    USD/JPY

    Do you still have the trade marked below open Olu? (red arrow)

    It looks like it could develop very nicely if price continues to fall...
     

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  15. Olu

    Olu Master Trader

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    Yes it is still open.

    Olu
     

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    Last edited: Jul 23, 2013
  16. Olu

    Olu Master Trader

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    Trade Closed

    2nd half hit lowered stop for a profit. Now flat

    Olu
     
  17. Olu

    Olu Master Trader

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    UsdCad

    one by one all the signals we talked about on this thread are working out...
     

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  18. fortunatus

    fortunatus Trader

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    Great Job

    Hi Guys,
    Great job going on here
     
  19. myknees

    myknees Trader

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    Nice one, great to see the patient rewarded, your updates are appreciated - THanks
     
  20. Nigel Price

    Nigel Price Master Trader

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    Hi Guys, I've been working at dollar/yen this week.

    I'll post a full review of how it went at the weekend.

    For now though, this is the trendline I will be focusing on for the remainder of the week.

    All the best for now :D

    Nigel
     

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