Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

myknees

Trader
Jun 26, 2013
93
0
22
Hi myknees, I currently have a position short in USD/JPY from last week and I will be monitoring it over the coming week to see if I can make it last for as long as possible! If more trendlines appear in USD/JPY I will try to post charts here in advance.

If you are looking for a fresh reversal signal, crude looks like it might be in for a fall in the coming weeks - let's wait and see!

As always, it's not whether we are right or wrong in terms of market direction that is important, it is keeping our losses under control and letting our winners stretch their legs when we can. Good luck for the coming week :D

:) Great update - Much appreciated and thanks for your efforts :)
 

Olu

Master Trader
Hi guys,
Just as Nigel and Olu pointed out, the Oil looks promising. Okay, is anyone looking at the cadjpy below? I will personally love to trade this if i get a pull back close to the 96.10 zone, that way their will be enough space to trade into, considering the fact that we could meet a minor support at the 94.00 zone. Well, i kinda like the PA on the monthly TF. Anybody thinking this way?

Hi F

I was going to highlight cadjpy too. Thanks for putting up the chart. It is now officially on the radar along with crude oil. Hope we do well with them. You are also right on your possible entry at 96.10. A trend line I put up on the 8h chart has a breakout zone around 96.20 so if price turns from there it would equate to the classic breakdown and retest behavoiur we see so many times

Olu
 
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Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Hi guys,
Just as Nigel and Olu pointed out, the Oil looks promising. Okay, is anyone looking at the cadjpy below? I will personally love to trade this if i get a pull back close to the 96.10 zone, that way their will be enough space to trade into, considering the fact that we could meet a minor support at the 94.00 zone. Well, i kinda like the PA on the monthly TF. Anybody thinking this way?

Hi fortunatus - absolutely, CAD/JPY looks like it could be ripe for a fall too. I am personally holding short positions in USD/JPY from last week so I might just focus on crude for now - keep things a bit diversified! The Canadian dollar is often correlated with oil though, so perhaps both will fall together over the coming weeks!

You bring up a good point in relation to the monthly timeframe - as we all know, this Wednesday is the last day of July, so those of us with a bit of a longer term perspective could take a flick through the charts on the monthly timeframe to see if we can get any clues about where price might be heading as we move through Q3.

That said, it is worth remembering that the monthly chart moves very slowly and can test a trader's patience. The reward for the hard work though is that if you can get positions early on a monthly trend it can be extremely lucrative.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend :D
 
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Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Some light weekend reading!

- an interesting article on candlestick performance, from Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine :D
 

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Jakspratt

Trader
Jul 19, 2013
14
0
17
CADJPY

I shall be watching CADJPY - here is my counter trend line on a M30 chart. Price could fall back from the WS1 @ 95.68. Looking for a close below the black line
 

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Jakspratt

Trader
Jul 19, 2013
14
0
17
Some light weekend reading!

- an interesting article on candlestick performance, from Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine :D

Nigel, thanks for that link. It is based on stocks but I am sure candlestick patterns are much the same in Forex. I followed through to the website which is fascinating but will probably take a lot to absorb.
The link for those that might be interested is: http://thepatternsite.com/index.html
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Hi Guys just a last point before the trading week starts - for the Yen pairs in particular - if you look at the chart, we have see quite a sharp move down in the last couple of days of last week. Quite often after these sharp moves the market will consolidate for a while or retrace slightly. I don't know whether this will happen this week or not, no-one does, but be prepared for the possibility that the market might just go nowhere for a few days. Especially during the summer, Mondays can be very quiet. Just something to bear in mind!

Good luck for the coming trading week!

:D
 

Jakspratt

Trader
Jul 19, 2013
14
0
17
CADJPY

Have entered CADJPY. My original plan was thwarted by Gap down on Sun Ni (black line) so I waited for another opportunity and entered at 95.172 after cross of counter trend line (red line). currently a few pips up
 

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Olu

Master Trader
Crude Oil

Guys well done on the cadjpy. I am not in yet as I was looking for a retracement to 9620 which did not happen. It appears price has the intention to move downwards

Crude oil bounced off the 104.00 line and appear to be going up. But as Nigel said when I noted the same on the usdjpy last monday - it is early days yet

Olu
 

fortunatus

Trader
Jul 8, 2013
17
0
17
Hey
Looks like the retracements we are looking for is beginning to form. Lets see how it plays out. Jackspratt, i wouldn't have taken that trade; In my opinion, it is sometimes best to wait for a notable pull back especially when price has rallied down . Hope Nigel would shed more light on this .

Guys well done on the cadjpy. I am not in yet as I was looking for a retracement to 9620 which did not happen. It appears price has the intention to move downwards

Crude oil bounced off the 104.00 line and appear to be going up. But as Nigel said when I noted the same on the usdjpy last monday - it is early days yet

Olu
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
...it is sometimes best to wait for a notable pull back especially when price has rallied down . Hope Nigel would shed more light on this .

I think the main point to remember is that everyone has their own style and their own way of entering the market.

A market that looks overstretched to Mr A can just look very strong when viewed through Mr B's eyes.

On the occasions that the market snaps back, Mr A, who saw it as overstretched, is very happy with himself and pats himself on the back for having such remarkable market insight. Mr B is left nursing his losses.

On another occasion, despite the apparently stretched conditions, the market just continues straight on without stopping to take a breath. Suddenly Mr B is looking very clever and Mr A is kicking himself because he missed out on a great trading opportunity.

The same thing can be said for trading news announcements. Some people avoid them like the plague, saying that to trade them is akin to gambling. Others take the view that some will go for you and some will go against you and over time it will all even itself out.

The criteria that you use to enter the market are not important. What is important is that when you are wrong, you get out quick. And when you are right, you exploit the opportunity to the full.

Say for instance you make a bet on the market direction after a particular news announcement. You accept that your odds of being correct are 50 50, or evens. That's just a gamble, right? No point in doing that?

Well what if on the occasions that your guess is correct you make an average of 100 pips, but on the occasions you are wrong you lose 75 pips? Would you be trading then?

Of course you would, all day long.

People can get preoccupied with trying to identify a perfect set-up or being correct as much as possible, and in doing so lose sight of the bigger picture. It's not about the exact price that you place your order, it's what you do afterwards that's important. :D
 
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fortunatus

Trader
Jul 8, 2013
17
0
17
Okay Boss. Taken!:D

I think the main point to remember is that everyone has their own style and their own way of entering the market.

A market that looks overstretched to Mr A can just look very strong when viewed through Mr B's eyes.

On the occasions that the market snaps back, Mr A, who saw it as overstretched, is very happy with himself and pats himself on the back for having such remarkable market insight. Mr B is left nursing his losses.

On another occasion, despite the apparently stretched conditions, the market just continues straight on without stopping to take a breath. Suddenly Mr B is looking very clever and Mr A is kicking himself because he missed out on a great trading opportunity.

The same thing can be said for trading news announcements. Some people avoid them like the plague, saying that to trade them is akin to gambling. Others take the view that some will go for you and some will go against you and over time it will all even itself out.

The criteria that you use to enter the market are not important. What is important is that when you are wrong, you get out quick. And when you are right, you exploit the opportunity to the full.

Say for instance you make a bet on the market direction after a particular news announcement. You accept that your odds of being correct are 50 50, or evens. That's just a gamble, right? No point in doing that?

Well what if on the occasions that your guess is correct you make an average of 100 pips, but on the occasions you are wrong you lose 75 pips? Would you be trading then?

Of course you would, all day long.

People can get preoccupied with trying to identify a perfect set-up or being correct as much as possible, and in doing so lose sight of the bigger picture. It's not about the exact price that you place your order, it's what you do afterwards that's important. :D
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Morning All!

This week is a blockbuster in terms of economic data -

Wednesday - FOMC
Thursday - ECB
Thursday - BOE
Friday - NFP

This is great for the news junkies amongst us, but sadly it doesn't make for great trading conditions. These large news announcements usually mean tight ranges in advance of the release, as traders are reluctant to take big positions before they know what the data is. The release itself then generates a quick jump in whatever direction, and then we often settle into a tight range again as the market digests the move.

Just be aware that these are coming up, and remember, no trendline is any match for a central banker! :D
 

Jakspratt

Trader
Jul 19, 2013
14
0
17
Hey
Looks like the retracements we are looking for is beginning to form. Lets see how it plays out. Jackspratt, i wouldn't have taken that trade; In my opinion, it is sometimes best to wait for a notable pull back especially when price has rallied down . Hope Nigel would shed more light on this .

You were probably correct fortunatus - this trade initially made 10 pips but then reversed to my stop and has ranged since then - probably overstretched
 

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myknees

Trader
Jun 26, 2013
93
0
22
Morning All!

This week is a blockbuster in terms of economic data -

Wednesday - FOMC
Thursday - ECB
Thursday - BOE
Friday - NFP

This is great for the news junkies amongst us, but sadly it doesn't make for great trading conditions. These large news announcements usually mean tight ranges in advance of the release, as traders are reluctant to take big positions before they know what the data is. The release itself then generates a quick jump in whatever direction, and then we often settle into a tight range again as the market digests the move.

Just be aware that these are coming up, and remember, no trendline is any match for a central banker! :D

Agreed with Wednesday and Friday - I think I would literally fall over backwards if Thursday contained any surprises :)
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Daily Chart Opportunity

Hi Everyone,

Usually I like to stick to the weekly charts for my larger anchor timeframe analysis. The reason for this is quite simple - weekly trends can last a long time. Also it means that I can do my analysis at the weekend and then just concentrate on one or two charts all week, without jumping around different instruments, looking for a trade. I find that I sometimes end up taking trades just for the sake of it when I do that.


However, every now and again I will take a look at the daily charts during the week, just to see if there are any intraday set-ups that I could trade using the PAST principles. These daily turning points can end up being quite profitable sometimes too.

I noticed that EUR/USD was looking quite interesting today - it looks like it is about to finish the day with a long wick potential reversal candle. It might be worth keeping an eye on tomorrow. Obviously the wild-card here is the FOMC, which will likely generate some volatility. If you decide to trade, first and foremost make sure your risk is controlled and limited, and if you decide not to trade, that's good too - another trade will come along soon enough.

All the best :D
 

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