Discussion in 'Trading Systems and Strategies' started by Nigel Price, Jul 1, 2013.
Stop moved to breakeven now...
Very nice entry!
Once I determine my thoughts about trend and market direction I just hunt for trendlines. Your strategy is just right for me.
Stop moved to 99.70... It looks like we might get a retracement
I came across this system when reviewing the Forex Useful Site and I find that it clarifies things a great deal. there is a lot of similarity between the idea of the 'Snapback' system sold by the Ong Brothers. However, PAST gives you a better chance of getting the trend right and like Olu, once you move down to the 4H or 1H time frames you see oodles of possible entries. Whilst the best opportunities are going to be in the first week after the reversal candle, I am still seeing slightly smaller trades in the third or even fourth week after the reversal. I hope to be able to post some images of my trades in the weeks to come.
usdjpy give us a 'break'
When this line goes it would be explosive imho
I am not the thread starter but welcome to the thread. I am not aware of the snapback strategy however I would say this is a good strategy. I would like you to expand on your premise that the best trades will be in the first week. Why do you say that? Are you thinking that there will be many failed reversals and that the follow up price action will only be in the first week? This baby (sorry strategy) can yield hundreds of pips if the real trend change is caught.
Looking forward to your charts
Thanks for welcome Olu. My point about the best time for taking trades is based on the change of trend - the longer time goes on, the more likely that the (new) trend will become exhausted and reverse again. I am particularly looking out for the trend reversals that happen at extremes and plot the monthly Swing highs and lows to see how close price is to these - This would also increase the likelihood that the trend change will travel a significant distance.
UsdJpy - Support Line Broken
'Unfortunately' I took of three fifths of my position when I moved the stop to 99.70
Thanks J for your reply. I think I get what you are saying. You are saying that if a downtrend, for example has been going for a long time ther is more likelyhood that any reversal signal and trade will be weak and therfore the norm will re-inforce itself. Am I right?
Also I think you are saying that if a trend has really gone on for soooooo long that the move has become extreme any trend change will most likely last a longer. Am I right here too?
Lastly how do you determine extreme?
Last 2/5 closed. Flat now. Price is retracing...
Yes to the first question but in determining extreme (and this is a bit arbitrary) I mark the most recent high and low on a monthly chart and consider if price on a Weekly (or Daily) is near these levels, then it is at extreme and chances are that it will reverse - not always, but higher probability.
Your USDJPY trade has gone very well
Thanks for your clarification and insight. I will look out for that relationship between monthly highs and lows and extremes.
I didnt get this l leg down today in the usdjpy but it appears a bigger trade is looming if we dont bounce from here. And this can if it happens carry on for a frw hundred pips...
Abenomics is working...
Thanks for the updates guys.
Anyone spotted any potential trades for next week - Key day reversal or dojis as per the manual ?
Looking forward to it, Jakspratt! Welcome to the thread
Hi myknees, I currently have a position short in USD/JPY from last week and I will be monitoring it over the coming week to see if I can make it last for as long as possible! If more trendlines appear in USD/JPY I will try to post charts here in advance.
If you are looking for a fresh reversal signal, crude looks like it might be in for a fall in the coming weeks - let's wait and see!
As always, it's not whether we are right or wrong in terms of market direction that is important, it is keeping our losses under control and letting our winners stretch their legs when we can. Good luck for the coming week
Thanks Nigel. I will take a look at crude
Weekly Bearish Reversal as Nigel said
Just as Nigel and Olu pointed out, the Oil looks promising. Okay, is anyone looking at the cadjpy below? I will personally love to trade this if i get a pull back close to the 96.10 zone, that way their will be enough space to trade into, considering the fact that we could meet a minor support at the 94.00 zone. Well, i kinda like the PA on the monthly TF. Anybody thinking this way?
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