Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Tensions Keep Markets Defensive (03.27.2026)​

Reports indicated the Pentagon may deploy up to 10,000 additional troops, while Donald Trump postponed potential strikes on Iran’s energy sector by 10 days. Higher energy prices strengthened inflation concerns, pushing expectations toward tighter Federal Reserve policy, with markets pricing nearly a 50% chance of a rate increase by December.

Markets remained cautious as escalating U.S.–Iran tensions drove demand for safer assets and supported the U.S. dollar. The dollar index traded just below 100, extending gains after three consecutive sessions as Middle East tension supported demand.

The US 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.41%, heading for a strong monthly rise as energy costs reinforced the same policy outlook.

The Nasdaq 100 traded at 23,695, falling 576 points (2.38%) from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, the index has declined 5.19%, though it still shows a 22.89% gain over the past year.

The euro stayed under pressure near $1.1540 despite rising expectations for further ECB rate hikes, while the Japanese yen hovered close to the critical 160 level, raising intervention concerns. Sterling also weakened amid falling consumer confidence and heightened geopolitical risks. The offshore yuan traded near 6.91 per dollar, marking a third consecutive session of losses

In contrast, precious metals found some support, with gold rebounding above $4,400 and silver recovering from recent losses as temporary relief measures eased immediate market stress. Overall sentiment remains fragile, shaped by ongoing conflict and persistent inflation concerns.

Brent crude slipped below $107 per barrel, trimming earlier gains after Trump extended Iran’s deadline for reaching a deal by 10 days. He confirmed that 10 oil tankers were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an insurance program to support regional shipping. Tehran rejected the US proposal and presented its own terms.

 

[zForex]

Euro Under Pressure Near $1.1540​

The euro hovered around 1.1540 on Friday, remaining below the $1.16 mark as investors moved away from riskier assets due to escalating U.S.–Iran tensions. Markets now anticipate up to three ECB rate hikes this year following Christine Lagarde’s hawkish inflation stance, even as fading German consumer confidence signals deepening economic anxiety.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1580, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1500.

Yen Hovers Near Critical 160 Level​

The Japanese yen remained around 159.5 per dollar on Friday, flirting with the psychological 160 threshold that previously sparked intervention. Politician Satsuki Katayama warned that authorities are ready to take "bold actions" to support the currency as soaring energy costs strain the economy. Persistent Middle East tensions and doubts over a U.S.–Iran deal continue to weigh on the yen, which is now facing a sharp monthly decline.

Technically, resistance stands near 160.00, while support is firm at 158.80.

Gold Rebounds Past $4,400​

Gold surged past $4,400 per ounce on Friday, recovering from a sharp previous-session decline. Markets found temporary relief after Donald Trump postponed potential strikes on Iranian energy facilities until April 6 and noted that Iran allowed tankers to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. However, Tehran rejected the latest U.S. proposal, issuing its own counter-conditions. Persistent conflict and high energy prices continue to fuel inflation fears, keeping global expectations for tighter monetary policy firmly in place.

Gold sees support near $4350, while resistance is around $4500.

Sterling Declines Toward $1.33​

The British pound fell toward $1.33 as investors sought safety amid escalating US-Iran tensions. President Trump suggested Iran wants a deal but is “afraid to admit it,” while Iranian state media rejected talks, demanding unilateral guarantees and possible fees for ships in the Strait of Hormuz. UK consumer confidence dropped to record lows in March, fueling inflation worries. Markets now price in two to three Bank of England rate hikes, with a 70% probability of one next month and a second expected by July.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3290, with resistance around 1.3410.

Silver Rebounds Above $68​

Silver traded around $68 per ounce on Friday, recovering from a previous sharp selloff. Markets found temporary relief after Donald Trump extended the deadline for a potential deal with Iran. However, Iran rejected the U.S. 15-point plan, counter-proposing its own terms for waterway control. These ongoing tensions and high energy costs continue to fuel inflation fears and hawkish central bank expectations.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $67.50 while support is located around $70.70.

 

[zForex]

Gold recovery looks limited​

Gold is hovering around $4,430–$4,450, struggling to extend gains despite geopolitical tension. The temporary pause in U.S. strikes offered some relief, but uncertainty remains elevated.

Markets are now focused on rates. Rising oil-driven inflation has pushed U.S. 10Y yields toward 4.45%, with expectations shifting away from cuts and toward a more hawkish path.

A strong dollar is adding further pressure. Technically, gold is stabilizing after testing ~$4,100 lows. Price is still below key moving averages. Immediate resistance is at $4,570, while first support stands at $4,300.

 

[zForex]

NFP and Tensions Lift Dollar (03.30.2026)​

Markets remained risk-averse as geopolitical tensions and anticipation of key U.S. labor data supported the dollar. The dollar index held above the 100 mark after four consecutive sessions of gains.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield slipped to around 2.36% but stayed near its highest level since 1999. The US 10-year Treasury yield eased slightly to about 4.4%, remaining close to its highest level since July 2025

EUR/USD stayed under pressure with a bearish outlook as investors focused on upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls and ongoing Middle East uncertainty. The Japanese yen strengthened beyond the 160 level amid rising intervention warnings, while sterling weakened further as confidence data deteriorated. USDCNH held near 6.91 per dollar, staying close to its weakest level in almost three weeks

In commodities, gold rebounded toward $4,500 on safe-haven demand, and silver remained volatile as the conflict showed no signs of easing. Brent crude opened the week roughly 3% higher, trading above $115 per barrel and reaching its strongest level since July 2022.

Nasdaq 100 traded at 23,110, falling 454 points (-1.93%) from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, the index has declined 7.53%.

Overall, sentiment continues to favor the dollar as traders await clearer signals from economic data and geopolitical developments.

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

NFP and Tensions Lift Dollar (03.30.2026)​

Markets remained risk-averse as geopolitical tensions and anticipation of key U.S. labor data supported the dollar. The dollar index held above the 100 mark after four consecutive sessions of gains.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield slipped to around 2.36% but stayed near its highest level since 1999. The US 10-year Treasury yield eased slightly to about 4.4%, remaining close to its highest level since July 2025.

EUR/USD Faces Sustained Pressure​

The EUR/USD pair remains under significant pressure as markets shift their focus to upcoming U.S. labor data, specifically Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Despite a temporary pause in U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, Middle East tensions continue to discourage investor sentiment.

Traders are closely monitoring preliminary employment indicators for hints regarding labor market resilience. In this risk-averse climate, safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar is reinforcing a increasingly bearish long-term outlook for the euro.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1560, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1460.

Yen Strengthens Past 160​

The Japanese yen surged beyond 160 per dollar on Monday, recovering from earlier losses as officials ramped up verbal warnings. Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura expressed growing concern over speculative spikes in both currency and crude oil futures. His comments signaled that authorities remain on high alert and are prepared to take direct action to stabilize the market.

Technically, resistance stands near 160.50, while support is firm at 159.30.

Gold Rebounds Toward $4,500​

Gold climbed back to $4,500 per ounce on Monday, recovering from earlier losses as the Middle East conflict entered a volatile fifth week. Tensions surged as Yemen’s Houthi forces launched attacks on Israel, threatening critical Red Sea shipping lanes and Saudi energy infrastructure. This expansion of the war front continues to drive haven demand amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

Gold sees support near $4350, while resistance is around $4520.

Pound Slides Toward $1.33​

The British pound fell toward $1.33 as investors sought safety amid escalating US-Iran tensions. UK consumer confidence dropped to record lows in March, fueling inflation worries. Markets now price in two to three Bank of England rate hikes, with a 70% probability of one next month and a second expected by July.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3220, with resistance around 1.3300.

War Tensions Keep Silver Volatile​

Silver recovered to around $70 per ounce on Monday after earlier losses, but remained highly volatile as the Middle East conflict is not close to resolution. Tensions escalated as Iran-backed Houthi militants. Reports also indicate the US military is preparing for extended ground operations in Iran following the deployment of additional troops.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $70.00 while support is located around $67.20.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin traded at $67,143, rising $1,193 (1.81%) from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, the cryptocurrency has gained 2.13%, though it remains down 18.67% compared with a year earlier.

Forecast models point to prices around $66,926 by the end of the quarter and near $75,396 within the next year.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 68,300, while support is at 64,200.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude opened the week roughly 3% higher, trading above $115 per barrel and reaching its strongest level since July 2022, when the Ukraine conflict disrupted global energy markets.

With the Iran conflict entering its fifth week, confidence in a quick resolution has faded. Pressure intensified after Houthi militants in Yemen joined the confrontation, while additional US troops were deployed to the region.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 110.80, with initial support near 105.00.

NASDAQ 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded at 23,110, falling 454 points (-1.93%) from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, the index has declined 7.53%, though it still shows a 19.88% gain over the past year.

Projections suggest levels near 22,439 by the end of the quarter and around 20,479 within the next year.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 23.350, with initial support near 22.700.

 

[zForex]

Dollar Dips as Markets Eye Data and Conflict (03.31.2026)​

Markets showed mixed signals as a softer U.S. dollar allowed EUR/USD to hold near 1.1500, with investors turning attention to upcoming Eurozone inflation and German retail data.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Trades Near 1.1500​

The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.1500 level, rebounding as the U.S. dollar softens despite persistent safe-haven demand. Investors are now shifting their focus toward upcoming German Retail Sales and Eurozone HICP inflation data for fresh directional cues. Sentiment improved following reports that Donald Trump may be open to ending the conflict with Iran without demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which weighed on the dollar. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that long-term inflation expectations remain stable, helping to temper aggressive interest rate forecasts.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1510, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1410.

Yen Holds Gains Near 160​

The Japanese yen settled around 159.6 per dollar on Tuesday, maintaining recent gains as intensified verbal warnings from Tokyo increased intervention expectations. Currency chief Atsushi Mimura reaffirmed that the government is prepared to act decisively, echoing recent stances from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

These official cautions followed the yen’s brief slide beyond the critical 160 level, a threshold that previously triggered market intervention in July 2024. Despite this support, the currency remains pressured by surging oil prices fueled by the Middle East conflict, which disproportionately impacts Japan due to its heavy reliance on energy imports.

Technically, resistance stands near 160.50, while support is firm at 159.30.

Gold Hits Volatile Month​

Gold climbed toward $4,600 per ounce on Tuesday as easing oil prices provided some relief, but the metal remains on track for roughly a 13% decline in March, its worst monthly performance since October 2008.

Throughout the month, gold has been pressured by an oil-driven inflation shock that pushed both investors and central banks toward a more hawkish stance on interest rates. The Middle East conflict has now entered its fifth week with no signs of easing, with Iran effectively shutting the Strait of Hormuz and threatening Red Sea shipping.

Gold sees support near $4420, while resistance is around $4580.

Sterling Hits Four-Month Low​

The British pound drifted toward $1.32, marking its weakest level since early December and a monthly decline of over 1%. Persistent risk aversion, fueled by potential U.S. ground operations in the Middle East, continues to overshadow nascent progress in Iran negotiations. The Bank of England’s outlook has shifted dramatically; markets now anticipate at least two rate hikes in 2026, with a 70% probability of an increase as early as next month. This hawkish turn reflects growing fears that energy-driven inflation will remain sticky.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3100, with resistance around 1.3250.

Silver Rebounds Above $72​

Silver climbed past $72 per ounce on Tuesday as cooling oil prices provided brief relief. Despite this recovery, the metal is set for a monthly decline exceeding 20%, marking its sharpest drop since September 2011. Throughout March, precious metals faced persistent pressure from an energy-driven inflation shock, which spurred investors and central banks to adopt increasingly hawkish interest rate expectations to counter rising costs.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $72.5 while support is located around $67.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index fell to 23,166 onTuesday, March 31, dropping 179 pointsor 0.78%. While the index has declinedapproximately 7.31% over the pastmonth, it maintains a year-over-year gainof 19.19%.

However, current macromodels and analyst projections suggestfurther weakness ahead, with the indexexpected to hit 22,439 by the end of thisquarter and potentially retreat to 20,479within the next twelve months as growthconcerns persist.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 23.350, with initial support near 22.700.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude futures declined toward$106 per barrel on Tuesday, reversinggains following reports that DonaldTrump may conclude the militarycampaign against Iran. This potential deescalation suggests a shift in strategy,even if the Strait of Hormuz remainslargely under Tehran’s control.

Despitethe price pullback, regional risks persist;a recent strike on a Kuwaiti tanker nearDubai and ongoing threats from Houthiforces in Yemen continue to highlight significant vulnerabilities for Persian Gulf shipping and globalenergy supply.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 110.80, with initial support near 106.40.

 

[zForex]

The dollar index has climbed nearly 3% this month, breaking back above 100 and heading for its strongest monthly performance since July 2025.

 

[zForex]

Optimism Lifts Forex and Gold (04.01.2026)​

Markets turned more optimistic as easing geopolitical tensions reduced safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar.

EUR/USD climbed above 1.1550, supported by improved risk appetite and expectations of a more hawkish ECB stance amid energy-driven inflation. The Japanese yen held near 160 with continued intervention signals, while sterling rebounded after recent losses as the dollar softened. In commodities, gold rallied toward $4,700 on easing rate expectations, whereas silver remained under pressure despite brief stabilization, reflecting the broader impact of higher-for-longer interest rate outlooks. Overall sentiment improved, though markets remain sensitive to upcoming U.S. data and geopolitical developments.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Gains on De-escalation Hopes​

EUR/USD climbed past 1.1550 as the US dollar retreated amid improving risk appetite. Optimism surged following Donald Trump’s signals of a potential withdrawal from the Iran conflict within three weeks, dampening safe-haven demand. The euro found support as ECB officials suggested that heightened energy-driven inflation risks might necessitate a more hawkish policy. This combination of easing geopolitical tensions and shifting interest rate expectations continues to drive the pair’s recovery.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1570, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1510.

Yen Holds Gains Despite Energy Pressure​

The Japanese yen stabilized near 159.6 per dollar on Tuesday, maintaining gains as intensified verbal warnings from Tokyo raised intervention expectations. Currency official Atsushi Mimura reaffirmed the government’s readiness to act decisively, echoing recent stances from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. These official cautions followed the yen’s brief slide beyond the critical 160 level, a threshold that previously triggered market intervention in July 2024. Despite this support, the currency remains pressured by surging oil prices fueled by the Middle East conflict, which disproportionately impacts Japan due to its heavy reliance on energy imports.

Technically, resistance stands near 160.50, while support is firm at 158.50.

Gold Rallies Toward $4,700​

Gold climbed near $4,700 per ounce on Wednesday as signs of de-escalation in the Middle East improved market sentiment. Hopes for lower oil prices have reduced fears of further interest rate hikes, providing a tailwind for the metal. Optimism grew following reports that Donald Trump is open to ending the Iran conflict even with the Strait of Hormuz restricted, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled a potential willingness to negotiate a resolution.

First resistance is seen at $4720, with initial support near $4650.

Sterling Rebounds on De-escalation Hopes​

GBP/USD snapped a five-day losing streak as shifting sentiment surrounding the Iran conflict weighed on the US dollar. Markets reacted positively to reports that Donald Trump is open to ending hostilities, though Iran’s core demands persist. The pair climbed 0.32% on Tuesday amid volatile trading as dollar selling pressure eased. Near-term direction now hinges on a heavy slate of US data, including ADP employment and ISM PMI, ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls release during the holiday.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3100, with resistance around 1.3250.

Silver Retreats on Hawkish Shift​

Silver retreated toward $74 per ounce on the first trading day of April, extending a dramatic 20% decline from March, its sharpest monthly drop since September 2011. The metal now sits nearly 40% below its January peak, pressured by energy-led inflation that has forced central banks to adopt a more aggressive interest rate stance. Investors have abandoned previous forecasts for two US rate cuts in 2026, pivoting instead toward higher for longer expectations. Although easing Middle East tensions offered brief stability, overall market sentiment remains remarkably fragile.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $78.50 while support is located around $74.00.

 

[zForex]

Gold Tests 4,770-4,780, Reversal Risk Builds​

Gold moved toward $4,765 as tension in the Middle East eased, supporting expectations of softer oil prices and less pressure on interest rates. The rebound reflects improving sentiment, though the broader macro picture remains mixed.

A stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields continue to restrain gains, keeping the recovery contained. Despite the recent bounce, gold is still down more than 10% for March and remains roughly 17% below its record highs. Focus is now shifting to upcoming US data and signals from the Fed for clearer direction.

Technically, the $4,770-$4,780 zone stands out as a strong resistance area, where selling pressure is likely to re-emerge. A rejection from this band would keep downside risks in place, with $4,580 remaining the key support level to watch.

Silver Meets Firm Resistance at $77​

Silver is trading near $75 following a short-term recovery, though upside momentum remains constrained. Solid US data, a resilient dollar, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to limit gains.

Technically, $77 represents a critical resistance level, where selling interest is likely to reappear if prices move into this range. A renewed rise in oil prices or an increase in risk tensions could prompt a quick reversal from these levels.

On the downside, a deeper pullback could drive prices toward $71.65.

 

[zForex]

Markets Wait for Geopolitics and NFP (04.02.2026)​

Markets remained cautious as investors awaited key geopolitical updates and U.S. labor data.

The dollar index moved back toward the 100 level on Thursday, reversing a two-day decline as uncertainty intensified following Trump’s remarks on the Iran conflict.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.37% as hopes for a swift resolution to the conflict faded. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield advanced to 2.38%, marking a record high and ending a three-day decline.

EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1600​

EUR/USD stabilized around 1.1590 early Thursday as traders turned cautious before Donald Trump’s address on the Iran conflict. Despite this uncertainty, the euro found firm support as markets increasingly price in potential ECB rate hikes for 2026. This shifting monetary outlook is helping the currency maintain its footing against the dollar ahead of key geopolitical updates.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1630, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1530.

USD/JPY Volatility Near 159.00​

USD/JPY stabilized around 159.00 as conflicting market forces balanced the pair. While ceasefire optimism in the Middle East dampened dollar demand, persistent intervention warnings from Tokyo provided a floor for the yen.

Domestically, Japan’s Tankan survey hit a four year high of 17, showing manufacturer resilience despite high energy costs. The US ISM Prices Paid index surged to 78.3, signaling intense inflationary pressure while the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%.

Investors now await Donald Trump’s address on the Iran conflict and US jobless claims for further direction.

Technically, resistance stands near 159.30, while support is firm at 158.00.

Gold Retreats Near $4,690​

Gold slipped toward $4,690 per ounce on Thursday, ending a four day rally as the US dollar regained momentum. While Donald Trump suggested that primary objectives in Iran are nearly met, his warning of potentially intensified military operations over the next three weeks reignited safe-haven demand for the dollar.

This dollar strength, coupled with rising oil prices and heightened inflation concerns, has pressured the non-yielding metal as markets anticipate a more restrictive monetary policy environment.

First resistance is seen at $4900, with initial support near $4640.

GBP/USD Reclaims 1.3300 Level​

GBP/USD staged a recovery from its March lows, rebounding past 1.3300 on Wednesday to snap a nearly two week losing streak. Despite this bounce, traders remain cautious ahead of Donald Trump’s address and the Good Friday Nonfarm Payrolls report. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has tempered market optimism, warning that expectations for near term rate hikes may be premature.

Meanwhile, the US ISM Prices Paid index hit a four year high of 78.3, fueling fears of a stagflationary environment. Since major markets are closed Friday, the employment data will likely trigger a volatile opening on Monday.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3230, with resistance around 1.3380.

Silver Falls on Dollar Strength​

Silver fell over 3% to approximately $72 per ounce on Thursday as the US dollar surged following Donald Trump’s primetime address. The President avoided a definitive timeline for ending the Middle East conflict, noting that while strategic goals in Iran are nearly met, military operations might intensify over the next three weeks.

This rhetoric supported the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, putting significant downward pressure on precious metals as investors pivoted back toward the dollar.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $78.2 while support is located around $71.10.

NASDAQ 100​

The US 100 Tech Index rose to 23,724, gaining 1.18% fromthe prior session. Over the past four weeks, the indexadvanced 4.03%, with annual performance still up28.09%.

Forecast models suggest a potential move toward 22,439by the end of the quarter, with downside risk extending to20,479 over the longer horizon if borrowing costs remainrestrictive.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 24.250, with initial support near 23.650.

BRENT CRUDE OIL​

Brent crude advanced more than 3%, moving back above$100 per barrel and reversing a two-day decline. Updatedstatements from Washington suggested that militaryobjectives could be reached within weeks, whileacknowledging that diplomatic channels remain active.

The combination of operational risk and uncertaininfrastructure stability has kept supply concerns in place,supporting prices.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 102.80, with initial support near 97.30.

USDCNH​

The offshore yuan slipped to around 6.88 per dollar,ending a three-day recovery as the US dollarstrengthened on persistent uncertainty surrounding theMiddle East conflict. Reduced expectations for FederalReserve rate cuts, combined with firm energy prices,continue to support the dollar.

Officials signaled that operations in Iran may reach keymilestones soon, but left open the possibility of furtherescalation if conditions change.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8930, with support positioned near 6.8640.

 

[zForex]

Is Gold Heading Toward 4365?​

Gold dropped 4% in early trading, hitting $4,580 as the intensifying Middle East conflict drives a dual-threat for the metal. The war has taken oil prices higher, creating fresh inflation fears and expectations for more aggressive interest rate hikes, which have significantly supported the US dollar.

Technically, the $4,530 to $4,535 support zone is now critical. Should the conflict trigger further spikes in energy costs or a break below this floor, analysts suggest the path could open toward $4,365 as the safe-haven appeal of the dollar continues to overshadow gold.

 

[zForex]

Silver Drop Puts $66 in Focus​

Silver fell more than 6% in early trading, dropping to around $70 as a stronger dollar, supported by comments from Donald Trump, added pressure on precious metals.

Persistent uncertainty surrounding the conflict and the possibility of further escalation continue to strengthen demand for the dollar, pushing silver lower at a faster pace.

Technically, $68.70 marks the first support level. A decisive break below this zone could open the door to a deeper decline, with $66 standing out as the next key downside target.

 

[zForex]

Dollar Strength Returns as Tensions Continue (04.06.2026)​

Developments in the Middle East continued to steer sentiment, with particular focus on uncertainty surroundingthe Strait of Hormuz. Earlier defensive positioning weighed on currencies such as the euro and the Japanese yen, driven by higher energy costs and the risk of prolonged disruption.

More recently, tentative progress towardrestoring shipping access helped steady conditions. The offshore yuan strengthened alongside diplomatic effortsto secure maritime transit, pointing to a gradual return of confidence rather than a full shift in direction.

Gold extended its retreat as persistent inflation pressure and expectations of tighter policy reduced demand forthe metal, even as regional risks remained unresolved.

Equity markets also showed strain in the near term, withthe US 100 Tech Index posting modest losses while still maintaining solid gains over the past year, showing amarket that is adjusting rather than reversing.

Euro Retreats to $1.15​

The euro softened toward $1.15 as caution took hold following Donald Trump’s address. Although he indicated US operations in the Middle East were nearing completion, the lack of a clear exit timeline and hints of potential escalations raised the dollar, weighing on the currency pair.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1590, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1500.

Gold Drops Toward $4,600​

Gold fell toward $4,600 per ounce on Monday, continuing its decline as geopolitical risks escalated. The slide followed Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran, warning of infrastructure strikes if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which further strengthened the dollar.

First resistance is seen at $4720, with initial support near $4580.

Yen Slides as Tensions Escalate​

The Japanese yen hovered near 159.5 per dollar, close to its weakest level since July 2024, as escalating tensions in Iran and rising energy prices continued to pressure the currency, with President Donald Trump’s strike warnings.

Technically, resistance stands near 159.90, while support is firm at 158.50.

Pound Declines Toward $1.32​

The British pound fell toward $1.32, nearing its lowest point since November as investor caution returned. Despite Donald Trump signaling that US operations are nearly finished, his failure to provide a clear resolution and warnings of further aggressive measures increased the dollar, weighing on the pair.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3320, with resistance around 1.3170.

Silver Slides Toward $72​

Silver fell to approximately $72, extending its decline. The metal has dropped over 20% since the Middle East conflict started, as heightened inflation and expectations for higher interest rates continue to support the dollar at its expense.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $74.20 while support is located around $71.50.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude moved toward $110 per barrel, extending recent gains as tension intensified following a renewed ultimatum from Washington. Warnings targeting key infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed have reinforced supply concerns and supported higher prices.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 112.50, with initial support near 107.30.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.28% to 24,172, extending its recent pullback despite strong performance over the past year. Short-term pressure remains visible as higher borrowing costs and geopolitical uncertainty continue to influence risk appetite, with forecasts pointing to softer levels ahead.

The index’s resistance is seen at 24.450, with initial support near 23.850

 

[zForex]

Dollar Resilient, Risk Contained (07.04.2026)​

Tension in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, continued to guide price behavior.

Euro Holds at $1.152​

The Euro stabilized near $1.152 during quiet trading as the Iran conflict and high oil prices weighed on sentiment. Strong US labor data further dampened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, keeping the currency range-bound against a resilient Dollar.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1590, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1500.

Gold Pauses at $4,650​

Gold stabilized near $4,650 as markets weighed escalating geopolitical threats. Prices paused their decline after President Trump warned of strikes on Iranian infrastructure unless his demands, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, are met.

First resistance is seen at $4720, with initial support near $4580.

Yen Keeps Near 160 Lows​

The Yen hovered near 160 per dollar, its weakest level since 2024. A dominant Dollar, surging energy costs from the Iran conflict, and the looming pressure of President Trump’s deadline continue to weigh heavily on the Japanese currency.

Technically, resistance stands near 159.90, while support is firm at 158.50.

Sterling Near Multi-Month Lows​

The Pound held around $1.32 as geopolitical conflict and surging energy costs dampened risk appetite. Strong US labor data supported the Dollar, further reducing expectations for Federal Reserve easing and keeping Sterling pinned near its recent lows.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3320, with resistance around 1.3170.

Silver Steadies Near $72.50​

Silver stabilized at $72.50 as markets weighed escalating geopolitical risks. Prices paused following President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran: meet specific demands, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday night, or face strikes on power plants and bridges.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $74.10 while support is located around $71.50.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude advanced above $111 per barrel, staying close to its strongest closing levels since June 2022. Prices remain supported by rising tensions ahead of Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reach an agreement or face intensified attacks on infrastructure, keeping supply risks firmly in focus.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 112.50, with initial support near 107.30.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index climbed to 24,066, gaining 0.61% from the previous session. The index continues to show solid momentum over the past month and year, even as projections suggest the possibility of softer levels ahead if borrowing costs remain restrictive.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 24,450, with initial support near 23,850.

 

[zForex]

Ceasefire Rises Euro, Metals, and Risk Appetite (04.08.2026)​

A temporary ceasefire in the Middle East eased immediate pressure on energy supply routes and reduced demand for defensive assets, leading the US dollar to soften. Price action signaled a shift away from defensive positioning toward a more confident risk environment.

Overall sentiment remains closely tied to developments surrounding the ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Trades Toward 1.1670​

The EUR/USD pair rose to approximately 1.1670 on Wednesday. The euro gained ground as geopolitical tensions cooled following Donald Trump’s agreement to a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, which diminished safe-haven demand for the dollar.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1700, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1620.

Gold Climbs Above $4,800​

Gold climbed over 2% on Wednesday, surpassing $4,800 per ounce. The surge continued after Donald Trump delayed strikes on Iranian infrastructure to provide a two-week window for negotiations, momentarily cooling immediate geopolitical tensions in the region.

First resistance is seen at $4850, with initial support near $4740.

Yen Strengthens Past 158.5​

The Japanese yen rallied past 158.5 per dollar on Wednesday, recovering from the 160 level seen earlier this week. Gains followed a two week ceasefire agreement between the US, Iran, and Israel, which improved risk sentiment and paved the way for negotiations.

Initial resistance stands at 159, while the first support is located at 157.90.

Pound Rose Past 1.33​

The British pound climbed from the low 1.32 area to the high 1.33 range, gaining strongly against the dollar. Easing geopolitical tensions sparked a shift toward risk-on positioning, weighing on the US dollar.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3460, with resistance around 1.3350.

Silver Rallies to Three-Week High​

Silver jumped over 4% on Wednesday, climbing past $76 per ounce. The rally followed Donald Trump’s announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire. This easing of geopolitical tension sparked a sharp recovery in the metal.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $77.25 while support is located around $75.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude fell more than 10% to near $95, marking a sharp correction as easing tensions followed the announcement of a two-week pause in military action linked to reopening shipping through Hormuz. The move reflected a rapid repricing of supply risk.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 97.50, with initial support near 92.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 traded near 24,991, posting a small daily gain. Momentum has moderated after a strong longer-term run, while forward projections still suggest the potential for softer performance in the periods ahead.

The index’ resistance is seen at 24.450, with initial support near 23.850.

 

[zForex]

Fragile Truce, Restless Markets (04.09.2026)​

Market participants evaluated the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran alongside ongoing Middle East tensions. The unclear path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and sporadic clashes kept risk perception elevated, driving sharp moves across currencies and commodities.

Oil prices rebounded on supply concerns linked to potential disruptions in Hormuz. Meanwhile, gold and silver struggled to hold earlier gains as higher bond yields and a firmer dollar weighed on prices. Precious metals initially benefited from defensive positioning but later eased as confidence improved.

Equity markets showed resilience, with major US tech indices posting gains as sentiment stabilized. In currency markets, the euro and British pound strengthened as expectations for aggressive rate hikes eased, while the Japanese yen weakened alongside rising energy costs. The Chinese yuan remained relatively stable, reflecting a cautious but selective return to risk-taking.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Hits Multi-Month High​

The euro reached $1.17 as cooling geopolitical tensions improved risk appetite. Sliding oil prices prompted investors to reduce expectations for aggressive ECB interest rate hikes.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1700, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1620.

Gold settled near $4,700​

Gold settled near $4,700 per ounce as investors weighed conflicting Middle East headlines. While supply fears provided support, rising yields and a stronger dollar limited the metal's upside, keeping its recent momentum in check.

First resistance is seen at $4850, with initial support near $4740.

Yen Retreats Amid Stronger Dollar​

The yen gave back early gains as rising oil prices and a firm dollar pressured the currency. Investors remain focused on the Bank of Japan, anticipating potential shifts toward tighter monetary policy.

Initial resistance stands at 159, while the first support is located at 157.90.

Sterling Nears $1.34 Highs​

Sterling jumped 1% toward $1.34 as geopolitical risks subsided. With falling energy costs reducing inflationary pressure, investors shifted their focus, leading to a downward revision of interest rate expectations.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3460, with resistance around 1.3350.

Silver Softens Toward $73.5​

Silver retreated to approximately $73.5 per ounce on Thursday following recent volatility. Investors are navigating a fragile Middle East ceasefire complicated by continued clashes and conflicting reports regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

While Iranian officials claim terms have been breached and tanker traffic remains stalled, US Vice President JD Vance suggested a reopening could be imminent due to diplomatic progress. These geopolitical uncertainties, coupled with a firmer dollar and climbing bond yields, have maintained downward pressure on the metal.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $77.25 while support is located around $75.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude climbed close to $97 per barrel, recovering part of its earlier losses as renewed military activity in the region raised fresh questions about the durability of the ceasefire.

Reports of suspended tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz kept supply concerns in focus, even as diplomatic efforts remained active.

Resistance is seen at $97.50, with initial support near $92.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index rose to around 24,887, marking a strong session gain of nearly 3%.

While near-term price action has been relatively steady, the index continues to reflect solid annual performance, exceeding 35%, even as projections point to the possibility of softer momentum ahead.

Resistance is seen at 24,450, with initial support near 23,850.

 

[zForex]

Dollar Softens and Metals Hold Gains (04.10.2026)​

Markets moved sideways as investors balanced easing inflation pressures with ongoing geopolitical risks. The fragile US-Iran ceasefire briefly eased pressure before renewed strikes in Lebanon and disruptions in theStrait of Hormuz kept tensions high.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Holds Below 1.17​

EUR/USD traded flat under 1.17 amid ongoing geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, market participants are raising their expectations for further interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1700, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1620.

Gold Sustains Gains Above $4,700​

Gold remained steady above $4,700 per ounce, heading for its third weekly advance. Lower oil prices following the US-Iran ceasefire eased inflation fears, while a softening dollar and safe-haven interest provided further support. Market attention is now turning to scheduled diplomatic discussions in Islamabad between Iranian and American representatives.

First resistance is seen at $4850, with initial support near $4740.

Yen Hovers Near 159​

The yen stayed around 159 per dollar. Lower oil prices provided support, yet worries regarding Japan’s economic prospects and high energy costs continued to pressure the currency.

Initial resistance stands at 159, while the first support is located at 157.90.

Sterling Steady Near $1.34​

The pound steadied around $1.34 while investors tracked geopolitical developments. Markets are also weighing the likelihood of further interest rate increases from the Bank of England.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3460, with resistance around 1.3350.

Silver Holds Above $75​

Silver stayed over $75 per ounce, continuing its weekly climb as lower oil prices cooled inflation worries. A softening dollar provided additional tailwinds while market participants turned their focus toward upcoming diplomatic talks between the US and Iran.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $77.25 while support is located around $73.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude climbed above $96 as Israeli strikes in Lebanon and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz heightened tensions. Despite the rebound, prices remained on track for a weekly drop of more than 10% following the US–Iran two-week ceasefire.

Netanyahu stated that operations in Lebanon fall outside the truce, while Washington is preparing talks with Israel and Lebanon. Supply risks intensified as Hormuz remained closed and Saudi output declined by roughly 600,000 barrels per day after recent attacks.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 97.50, with initial support near 92.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 index climbed to 25,150, posting a daily gain of 0.72%. Near-term movement has been relatively measured, while annual performance remains strong, with gains exceeding 34%.

Forward projections suggest the possibility of softer performance in both the short and longer term.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 24,450, with initial support near 23,850.

 

[zForex]

Energy Costs Surge as Food Stabilizes​

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report reveals a strong divergence in U.S. price trends. While headline inflation has accelerated, the underlying data points to a "two-speed" environment where volatile energy costs are masking more stable conditions in other sectors.

Energy Costs Fuel Headline Surge​

Energy has emerged as the primary catalyst for rising price levels. Headline CPI climbed 0.9% in March, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.3%. This jump was fueled almost entirely by an aggressive move in the energy index, which recorded its sharpest monthly increase since 2005.

Key developments in energy include:

• Gasoline: Prices surged more than 21%, accounting for the bulk of the monthly headline increase.
• Fuel Oil: Costs skyrocketed by 30.7%, the most dramatic rise within the sector.
• Electricity: Posted a modest gain, while natural gas provided a slight downward offset.

On a yearly basis, energy prices are up 12.5%, confirming that fuel and power remain the dominant sources of inflationary pressure.

Calm in the Food Aisles​

In contrast to the volatility in energy, food prices remained exceptionally calm. The overall food index was unchanged for the month, as a slight dip in grocery costs balanced out the rising cost of dining out.

• At-Home Costs: Prices for dairy, meats, and cereals saw modest declines, though fruits and vegetables moved higher.
• Away-from-Home Costs: The trend of more expensive restaurant meals continued, rising steadily throughout the month.

This stability suggests that supply conditions in the food market are significantly more balanced than those in the energy sector.

Core Inflation and Fed Implications​

Core inflation, which strips out the volatile food and energy sectors, remained steady at 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually. While shelter, apparel, and airline fares moved higher, these gains were largely neutralized by falling prices for used cars, medical care, and personal care items.

For the Federal Reserve, this data presents a complex puzzle. While underlying demand-driven inflation is not accelerating, the massive energy shock keeps headline figures high. This persistent volatility could keep inflation expectations elevated, complicating any near-term plans to ease monetary policy despite the relative containment of core components.

 

[zForex]

Gold Momentum Fades Below $4,785​

Gold struggled to hold gains near $4,785, with upside momentum beginning to fade despite support from a softer dollar and ongoing US-Iran developments. Rate cut expectations are still in place, yet persistent inflation and shifting risk sentiment are starting to cap further advances.

The structure is showing early signs of strain. The $4,570 level stands as the first key support, and a break below this zone could open the door to a deeper pullback. In that scenario, the next major level to watch is $4,390, where stronger demand may emerge.

Recent price action indicates that rallies are losing traction. Unless gold regains momentum and pushes back toward recent highs, downside pressure is likely to remain in focus.

 

[zForex]

Silver Rally Strains Around $76.70​

Silver closed the week around $76.70, extending its advance on the back of a weaker dollar and growing rate cut expectations. Still, the move looks increasingly fragile as tensions remain high, particularly with the risk that the ceasefire could unravel over the weekend.

Technically, $75.80 stands out as a critical threshold. A sustained move below this level could speed up selling pressure. In that case, the first downside target comes in at $72.50, while a break beneath that zone may clear the path for a deeper decline toward $64.25.