Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Risk-Off Mode Dominates Global Trade (03.03.2026)​

A US court rejected Trump's tariff refund delay as the Dollar (98.5) and 10 year yield (4.04%) held gains amid Middle East escalation and inflation fears.

Global markets shifted firmly into risk-off mode as escalating Middle East tensions drove investors toward safe-haven assets. The US dollar strengthened on heightened geopolitical risk and surging energy prices, weighing on major currencies including the euro, yen, and pound. EUR/USD slipped below 1.1700 as evacuation orders and oil supply threats lifted inflation concerns, while the yen weakened despite renewed intervention rhetoric and mixed signals from Japanese policymakers.

Precious metals remained volatile, with gold extending its rally on conflict-driven demand, even as silver lagged under the pressure of a stronger dollar and delayed Fed rate-cut expectations.

Brent crude climbed nearly 2% above $79 per barrel after surging more than 6% in the previous session. Escalating tensions and threats around the Strait of Hormuz intensified concerns over supply routes.

Overall, geopolitical risk has overtaken macro fundamentals as the primary market driver.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Dips as Middle East Tensions Rise
Yen Pressured by Energy and Policy
Gold Hits $5,360 During Conflicts
Sterling Slumps to $1.33
Silver Lags Behind Despite Tensions

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Gold pulls back as strong USD caps gains, broader uptrend intact​

Gold slipped back below the $5,300 area after briefly testing highs near $5,380, as sustained US dollar strength triggered intraday selling. The dollar climbed to its highest level since January 20, offsetting safe-haven demand tied to ongoing Middle East tensions. Even so, geopolitical risks continue to provide an underlying bid, limiting deeper downside pressure.

From a broader perspective, the bullish structure remains intact. The breakout above $5,200 last week marked a key shift in momentum, and prices continue to hold above the rising 100-period SMA, keeping the medium-term trend positive. RSI near 59 suggests room for further upside without overbought conditions, while MACD signals fading downside momentum within an overall upward framework.

Near term, resistance is seen around $5,400, followed by $5,480 and $5,570. On the downside, support stands at $5,270, then $5,200 and $5,130.

Dips may attract buyers.

 

[zForex]

US crude oil rose 5.6%, approaching $75 per barrel for the first time since June 2025.​

 

[zForex]

USD/JPY holds firm as USD strength offsets intervention risks​

USD/JPY continues to move sideways near the mid-157 area, staying close to recent multi-week highs. The yen showed little reaction to the Bank of Japan’s blockchain settlement test, as the move is structural and not related to near-term policy. Instead, the pair remains driven by macro forces.
The US dollar is gaining support from rising Middle East tensions and reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts.

At the same time, reports suggest the Bank of Japan may delay further rate hikes due to market volatility, reinforcing divergence between US and Japanese policy. While intervention concerns and expectations of gradual BOJ normalization limit aggressive upside moves, the broader bias remains tilted higher.

Technically, resistance stands near 157.80, while support is firm at 156.40.
R1: 157.80  S1: 156.40
R2: 158.60  S2: 155.20
R3: 159.50  S3: 154.50

 

[zForex]

Gold pulls back as strong USD caps gains, broader uptrend intact​

View attachment 36403
Gold slipped back below the $5,300 area after briefly testing highs near $5,380, as sustained US dollar strength triggered intraday selling. The dollar climbed to its highest level since January 20, offsetting safe-haven demand tied to ongoing Middle East tensions. Even so, geopolitical risks continue to provide an underlying bid, limiting deeper downside pressure.

From a broader perspective, the bullish structure remains intact. The breakout above $5,200 last week marked a key shift in momentum, and prices continue to hold above the rising 100-period SMA, keeping the medium-term trend positive. RSI near 59 suggests room for further upside without overbought conditions, while MACD signals fading downside momentum within an overall upward framework.

Near term, resistance is seen around $5,400, followed by $5,480 and $5,570. On the downside, support stands at $5,270, then $5,200 and $5,130.

Dips may attract buyers.

Our previous levels worked cleanly. Gold rejected the $5,400 resistance and pulled back, then found solid support around $5,130. Structure remains intact as long as that demand zone holds.

 

[zForex]

Silver’s Safe-Haven Role Faces a Test​

Silver has dropped more than 8%, falling toward the $82 area. RSI is near 33 and approaching oversold territory. Price is trading below all key moving averages from MA5 to MA200, confirming a broad bearish structure.

Despite ongoing Middle East tensions, silver is not acting like a classic safe haven and is behaving more like a high-beta risk asset.

Technically, immediate support stands at 81.5855. On the upside, resistance is seen at 84.1975.

 

[zForex]

Energy Risks and War Lift Dollar (03.04.2026)​

Global markets remain dominated by geopolitical risk as escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran fuels a strong shift toward safe-haven assets. The dollar index hit 99.3 Wednesday, rising for a third day as conflict concerns fueled inflation and shifted Fed rate cut expectations from July to September.

The U.S. dollar strengthened, pushing the euro to year-to-date lows near $1.16 and keeping the yen weak as rising energy costs lifted inflation expectations. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and halted Qatari LNG exports have intensified concerns about global energy supply, complicating central bank outlooks across Europe and the UK.

Precious metals reflected the heightened uncertainty, with gold recovering above $5,100 and silver rebounding strongly as investors sought protection amid the possibility of a prolonged conflict and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Brent crude rose toward $82 per barrel, extending gains for a fourth session as markets assessed Washington’s plan to secure oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated the US International Development Finance Corporation would provide insurance support for tankers, with naval escorts available if required, in an effort to keep energy and trade flows moving through the region.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Hits Year-to-Date Lows
Yen Stalls Near 157.6
Gold Climbs Amid Iran Conflict
Pound Slumps to Multi-Month Low
Silver Jumps Above $84

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Gold Stays Near $5,200 as War Risks Meet Strong Dollar​

Gold is trading around $5,190 (+2.03%), recovering from recent losses. Ongoing strikes and threats around energy infrastructure continue to support bullion. However, the stronger US dollar and concerns that energy-driven inflation could delay Fed rate cuts may limit further upside momentum.

Technically, the broader uptrend is still in place. Price is holding above the rising 200-period SMA near $5,030, but momentum indicators suggest mixed signals after the rejection near $5,380. This keeps gold supported but also vulnerable to short-term consolidation.

Resistance stands near 5,200, followed by 5,280 and 5,370. On the downside, support is seen at 5,050, then 4,960 and 4,880.

 

[zForex]

Dollar Steadies Amid Diplomacy Hopes (03.05.2026)​

The dollar index stabilized near 98.8 Thursday as a reported U.S. submarine sinking of an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka and the sixth day of the U.S.–Israeli campaign fueled fears of a prolonged, inflationary conflict.

Markets stabilized as tentative signs of diplomatic outreach in the Middle East softened the U.S. dollar and supported global assets.

The euro rebounded toward $1.165 after reports that Iran may be open to peace discussions, while the Japanese yen strengthened as inflation fears eased alongside the weaker dollar. Sterling also regained ground from recent lows as investors reassessed the potential economic impact of prolonged energy disruptions and central bank policy responses.

In Japan, the 10-year government bond yield rose nearly 5 basis points to around 2.15% following a strong auction of 30-year bonds. The 30-year yield also climbed to about 3.4%, rebounding from last month’s three-month low of 3.25%.

Precious metals continued to attract demand, with gold extending its recovery above $5,170 and silver approaching $85 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and naval clashes in the region.

Brent crude climbed more than 2% to above $83 per barrel. Military operations between the US, Israel, and Iran have now entered their sixth day, while warnings from the IRGC have effectively halted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about energy supply routes.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Recovers Toward $1.165
Yen Strengthens Past 157
Gold Hits $5,170 as Tensions Grow
Pound Recovers Toward $1.338
Silver Nears $85 Amid Naval Conflict

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Wall Street Futures Face Volatility​

The Nasdaq 100 has been trading in a choppy range over the past few weeks as global uncertainty keeps investors cautious. The recent tensions in the Middle East, especially the military actions involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, briefly pushed the index lower. Rising oil prices and concerns about global growth made traders nervous, which triggered a quick risk-off reaction in tech stocks.

That weakness, however, did not last very long. Buyers stepped in fairly quickly and most of the losses were recovered, suggesting that dip-buying interest is still present in the market. At the moment, Wall Street seems to be in a wait-and-see mode.

Looking at the broader picture, the recent drop still appears more like a correction within the trend rather than the start of a deeper bearish phase. The index tested the key support zone around 24,200 ±200, which had been highlighted as a potential downside target, and the market reacted right around that area. Since then, prices have stabilized. Even with the recent volatility, the Nasdaq 100 has been moving sideways for several months.

*below image shows rising volatility

 

[zForex]

Dollar Leads Risk-Off (03.06.2026)​

Global markets remained under pressure as escalating Middle East tensions and rising energy prices strengthened the US dollar and unsettled major currencies. The Trump administration is weighing oil price controls, including SPR releases, eased fuel-blending rules, and Strait of Hormuz tanker security to stabilize energy markets.

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy offered the US and Middle East allies Ukrainian expertise in countering Iranian drones in exchange for more Patriot missile systems to replenish Kyiv's stockpiles.

The dollar index held near 99 Friday, eyeing a 1% weekly gain as Iran-Israel tensions and rising oil prices spurred safe-haven demand and expectations for delayed Fed rate cuts.

The euro hovered near 1.1620 with bearish momentum building, while the yen weakened further as Japan’s heavy energy dependence amplified the impact of higher oil prices. Sterling also remained weak near multi-month lows as geopolitical risks and downgraded UK growth prospects complicated the Bank of England’s policy outlook.

The offshore yuan climbed to approximately 6.9 per dollar, reclaiming ground after recent losses as China continues to expand the currency's international footprint

Precious metals showed mixed performance, with gold slipping toward $5,080 under the weight of stronger yields and a firm dollar, while silver rebounded modestly despite a steep weekly decline.

Brent crude futures fell 2% toward $84.0 per barrel on Friday, retreating after the Trump administration signaled plans to cool energy costs.

The Nasdaq 100 displayed resilience on Friday, trading above 25,000 despite ongoing Middle East tensions.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Under Pressure Near 1.1620
Yen Weakens Near 157.5
Gold Slips Near $5,080
Pound Slumps Toward $1.335
Silver Gains as Metals Rebound

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Gold has been moving in both directions this week as several forces compete in the market. The conflict between Israel and Iran has now entered its seventh day, with missile and drone attacks reported across the Gulf and continued airstrikes on Tehran. This environment normally supports gold, and the metal managed to recover some of its recent losses, holding above the $5,100 area.

Rising oil prices and strong U.S. economic data have complicated the picture. Higher energy prices are fueling inflation concerns, which reduces expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates anytime soon.

Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar have also shown strength at times during the week, limiting the upside for gold. Because of this, the metal is currently heading toward its first weekly decline in about five weeks, even though geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

From a technical perspective, gold is still holding a constructive structure. The price is trading around $5,100–$5,110, staying within an ascending channel and above the 50-day EMA near $4,883. Immediate resistance sits around $5,134, and a break above that level could reopen the path toward $5,480 and eventually the $5,598 record high.

On the downside, $5,080 acts as the first key support. If that level fails, the next important area for buyers is the 50-day EMA zone near $4,880–$4,900.

 

[zForex]

Chinese Markets Remain Stable​

Chinese markets remain stable compared to other Asian markets despite escalating Middle East tensions. While other Asian indices faced sharper drops, Chinese stocks saw only modest declines, aided by strong domestic participation and government support. Analysts warn that sustained conflict and rising energy costs could eventually intensify pressure on China's markets.



The offshore yuan climbed to approximately 6.9 per dollar, reclaiming ground after recent losses as China continues to expand the currency's international footprint. Favorable borrowing costs, enhanced cross-border financing, and a shift away from the Dollar helped elevate demand. While Beijing proposed a modest rise in its defense budget, the yuan remains on track for a weekly decline. This trend persists as a stronger U.S. dollar continues to attract flows amid ongoing Middle East instability.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.9270, with support positioned near 6.8800.

 

[zForex]

The Dollar’s Resilience Returns​

The U.S. dollar has strengthened again as global uncertainty increases. Despite ongoing debates about fiscal policy and geopolitics, investors continue to treat the dollar as a primary safe-haven asset. Recent market moves show that when risk rises, capital often flows back into the greenback.

Higher U.S. Treasury yields have also supported the move. Rising energy prices and inflation concerns are forcing markets to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. As rate-cut bets are reduced, yield differentials continue to favor the dollar over other major currencies.

Another factor is the continued global demand for U.S. financial assets. Treasury securities remain one of the most trusted safe assets, and the depth and liquidity of U.S. capital markets keep attracting international investors. In uncertain environments, liquidity, stability, and yield tend to keep the dollar in demand.

 

[zForex]

Oil Shock Drives Dollar Higher (03.09.2026)​

Global markets opened the week under pressure as escalating Middle East tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel.

Significant supply tightening drove the move: Iraqi output fell 70% to 1.3 million barrels per day, Kuwait declared force majeure, and Qatar cut LNG production. Analysts warn Saudi Arabia and the UAE may also reduce output as storage reaches capacity.

This spike fueled inflation fears, driving the US dollar to safe-haven highs while the Euro ($1.15), Pound ($1.33), and Yen (158.5) hit multi week lows. Equities tumbled, with the US 100 Tech Index falling 1.5% and major Asian indices dropping over 6% at the open.

The situation strengthened the U.S. dollar and weighed heavily on major currencies, sending the euro to a three-month low and pushing the yen to its weakest level in six weeks. Rising oil prices have also intensified global inflation concerns, complicating the outlook for central banks in Europe, Japan, and the United States.

Precious metals showed mixed performance, with gold slipping under the weight of a stronger dollar while silver declined sharply as energy-driven inflation fears reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Energy Costs Weigh on Euro
Yen Hits Six-Week Low
Gold Falls Below $5,100
War Risks Push Pound Lower
Oil Rally Weighs on Silver

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Energy Costs Still Affect Markets (03.10.2026)​

Currency markets remained volatile as ongoing Middle East tensions continued to shape global sentiment.

The euro slipped to a three-month low near $1.156 as investors favored the safety of the U.S. dollar and rising energy prices fueled inflation concerns in the eurozone. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen recovered modestly on improved domestic data and easing oil pressure. Sterling remained under pressure near multi-month lows amid geopolitical tensions and shifting expectations for Bank of England policy.

Precious metals moved higher as the dollar softened, with gold rebounding toward $5,180 and silver recovering strongly after a brief drop.

Brent crude fell below $95 per barrel on Tuesday, reversing a surge toward $120. The decline followed President Trump’s claims that the Iran conflict is ending and US military operations are ahead of schedule.

Nasdaq 100 rose 1.32% to 24,851, climbing 324 points from the prior session. The index has advanced 1.39% over the past four weeks and maintains a strong 12-month gain of 28.25%.

The offshore yuan held near 6.89 per USD, struggling to recover after hitting a onemonth low. Investors are currently weighing President Trump’s Middle East commentary against China’s record $213 billion trade surplus for January–February.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

EUR/USD Falls to $1.156
Yen Rebounds on Strong Data
Gold Recovers on Dollar Retreat
GBP/USD Drops to $1.33
Silver Rebounds Above $80

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Gold remains stuck below the $5,200 level as markets balance geopolitical risks with macroeconomic expectations. Safe-haven demand and helped the metal recover from its recent drop toward the $5,000 psychological area.

However, upside momentum remains limited for now. A relatively positive risk tone in broader markets and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts have prevented gold from extending its gains.

Traders are also staying cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data, including CPI and PCE, which could reshape interest rate expectations and drive the next move in gold.

 

[zForex]

Energy Uncertainty Keeps the Pressure (03.11.2026)​

Global markets remained cautious as investors weighed the economic impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict and volatile energy prices.

The euro stayed near two-month lows around $1.16 as rising energy costs threatened to reignite inflation across the eurozone and complicate the European Central Bank’s policy outlook. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened further amid conflicting signals about the duration of the conflict and Japan’s vulnerability to energy shocks. Precious metals moved higher as gold climbed above $5,200 on continued geopolitical risk, while sterling recovered modestly as optimism over easing energy pressures helped investors step away from the U.S. dollar.

Brent crude traded below $90 per barrel after a sharp drop in the previous session. Prices eased following reports that the International Energy Agency may release emergency oil reserves on a scale. On the other hand, major producers in the Middle East have reduced supply by more than 6 million barrels per day while the strait remains largely closed.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Pressured by Energy Risks
Yen Weakens Amid Mixed Signals
Gold Rises Amid War Signals
Sterling Recovers on Optimism
Silver Rebounds to $89

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Yen Weakens Amid Mixed Signals​

The Japanese yen weakened past 158 per dollar as geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East supported demand for the US dollar. Conflicting signals from the Trump administration added to market volatility. While President Trump suggested the Iran conflict could end soon, other officials pointed to ongoing military escalation. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards rejected the idea of a quick resolution and continued their blockade. At the same time, oil prices declined after reports that the IEA may release record levels from strategic reserves. Japan remains sensitive to energy shocks, especially as producer prices rose only 2% in February, marking the slowest increase in two years.

A Reuters survey suggests the Bank of Japan is likely to keep its policy rate at 0.75% at the March 19 meeting. However, expectations for gradual tightening remain, with about 60% of economists forecasting a rate increase to 1.00% by June. The median outlook sees the policy rate reaching 1.25% in early 2027 and 1.50% in early 2028, signaling a slow but steady normalization path.

Technical Levels​

R1: 159.00 | S1: 157.20
R2: 159.40 | S2: 156.40
R3: 159.80 | S3: 155.70

 

[zForex]

Dollar Leads as Markets Reprice Risk (03.12.2026)​

Currency markets remained under pressure as energy-driven inflation concerns and ongoing geopolitical tensions continued to support the U.S. dollar.

Nasdaq 100 traded near 24,718, showing only a slight daily gain. Yearly performance remains strong with gains exceeding 28%.

The euro dropped to multi-month lows below $1.16 as traders adjusted expectations toward tighter European Central Bank policy. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened toward an 18-month low near 159 as rising oil prices highlighted Japan’s vulnerability to energy disruptions.

In contrast, sterling showed modest resilience above $1.34 as easing oil prices helped stabilize sentiment and reduced expectations for aggressive Bank of England rate cuts. The offshore yuan strengthened beyond 6.86 per dollar, extending gains for a fourth consecutive session after strong trade data improved sentiment.

Precious metals struggled under the weight of a stronger dollar and rising yields, with gold slipping below $5,150 and silver pulling back toward $84.

Brent crude surged toward $100 per barrel as tanker attacks forced Iraq to halt key oil terminals and the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. Although the IEA approved a record 400-million-barrel reserve release, markets doubt it will fully offset tightening supply.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Hits Multi-Month Lows
Yen Nears 18 Month Lows
Gold Dips Amid Inflation Fears
Sterling Holds Above $1.34
Silver Pulls Back to $84

Economic Calendar​