Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.12.2024​

Dollar Strength, Gold Trends, and Oil Outlook Drive Investor Sentiment​

The dollar index stabilized above 105.2 on Wednesday after a three-session uptrend. Over the past few days, the index has climbed by over 1%, supported by strong US employment figures that led traders to reassess expectations for Fed rate cuts. Fed's updated economic forecasts are on the way, which will signal fewer rate cuts than previously thought. Markets are currently pricing in only one rate decrease from the Fed this year, with a September adjustment seeming less likely. Japan saw producer prices rise more than predicted in May, sparking concerns about potential consumer inflation upticks. In China, May's consumer price increase fell short of expectations, while producer prices remained in deflationary territory.

Gold prices inched towards $2,310 an ounce, lingering near one-month lows. All eyes are on the central bank's updated economic forecasts, which are expected to signal fewer rate cuts than previously expected. Following solid payroll data last Friday, only one rate reduction from the Fed seems likely this year. Moreover, China's central bank, the largest official sector purchaser of gold, halted its buying spree in May after 18 months of acquisitions. In other news, gold miner Polymetal International revealed plans this week to double output by 2029 through acquisitions in Central Asia.

WTI crude futures climbed above $78 per barrel, marking gains in five out of the last six sessions with a strengthening global demand outlook. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its forecast for global oil demand growth to 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024, up from the previous estimate of 900,000 bpd, driven by increased demand in Asian countries excluding Japan. OPEC remains optimistic about global oil demand growth this year, expecting a strong increase driven by higher travel and tourism later in the year. Additionally, industry data revealed a decline in US crude inventories by 2.428 million barrels last week, surpassing market projections for a 1.75 million barrel decrease. In other news, May's consumer price increase in China fell short of expectations, while producer deflation persisted. The focus is now on the upcoming US inflation report and the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Post automatically merged: Jun 12, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.12.2024​

EUR/USD Outlook Before the FOMC Meeting​

Ahead of the FOMC Meeting and the Fed interest rate decision later in the day, the EURUSD pair began the day slightly positive after enduring three days of selling pressure. The first resistance level stands at 1.0750. If this level is breached with robust momentum and the pair manages to stay above it, the next levels to watch would be 1.0780 and 1.0810, respectively. On the downside, 1.0730 serves as the first support level. Should the pair surpass this level, 1.0700 and 1.0660 would be the subsequent levels to monitor.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0810	1.0780	1.0750	1.0730	1.0700	1.0660

Post automatically merged: Jun 12, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.12.2024​

Gold's Resilience After a $100 Decrease​

After experiencing a $100 decrease in just one day, gold navigated through the first two trading sessions of the week relatively calmly. The initial resistance level able to withstand price action is at 2320. Beyond this point, attention should be given to the subsequent levels of 2330 and 2355 for potential upward movements. On the downside, the primary support level stands at 2307. Should the price fall below this level, the next levels to observe are 2280 and 2260.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2355	2330	2320	2307	2280	2260

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.13.2024​

Gold Retreats Despite Dovish Central Banks, Fed Dot Plot Hints at Slower Cuts​

On Thursday, the dollar index hovered around 104.8 after a 0.5% dip in the previous session. This drop was influenced by low inflation figures and assurances from the Federal Reserve regarding a potential interest rate cut this year. In May, the annual US inflation rate slowed to 3.3% from April's 3.4%, contrary to market expectations of stability. The core inflation measure also decreased more than predicted. Despite keeping the Fed funds rate unchanged, the Fed hinted at a single rate reduction this year, possibly in December. However, the dot plot suggested a more aggressive reduction trajectory for 2025. While the dollar faced significant losses against many major currencies, it swiftly rebounded against the yen before the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy decision.

Gold fell to approximately $2,310 per ounce on Thursday, retracting from a brief rebound in the preceding session. Despite soft inflation data, with headline inflation decreasing and the core gauge falling more than predicted, dot-plot projections from FOMC members suggested an average expectation of only one 25 basis points rate cut this year, with four members forecasting no cuts at all. This hawkish adjustment came alongside policymakers expressing diminished optimism regarding disinflation in the US economy, despite ongoing growth expectations. However, gold found support from dovish actions by major central banks, including rate cuts from the ECB and the BoC, preceding cuts by the BoE and the PBoC.

WTI crude futures declined to around $78 per barrel on Thursday, moving back from two-week peaks following EIA data indicating a 3.73 million barrel surge in US crude inventories last week. This surpassed market forecasts, which had predicted a drawdown of 1.55 million barrels. Additionally, both US gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve hinted at just one interest rate reduction this year, potentially in December, despite cooler US inflation figures for May. The prospect of elevated borrowing costs potentially constraining economic growth and energy demand loomed. Developments in Gaza are being eyed with indications of optimism from Hamas in ceasefire negotiations with Israel. Nevertheless, Houthi militants persisted in their assaults on Red Sea shipping, demonstrating solidarity with Palestinians and claiming responsibility for recent attacks involving small watercraft and missiles.

Post automatically merged: Jun 13, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.13.2024​

EUR/USD Stumbles After Fed Rally​

Following yesterday's interest rate decision by the Fed and Powell's press conference, the pair rallied up to 1.10850 but failed to sustain above this level and encountered selling pressure. In the event of further upward movement, the initial resistance will be at 1.0815, with subsequent levels to watch at 1.0850 and 1.0900 upon surpassing this zone. On the downside, the first support lies at 1.0780, followed by 1.0750 and 1.0700, respectively.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0900	1.0850	1.0815	1.0780	1.0750	1.0700

Post automatically merged: Jun 13, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.13.2024​

Gold Eyes Breakout Above 2320​

The first support in gold is at 2308, and a breakthrough below this level would indicate subsequent support levels at 2280 and 2260, respectively. On the upside, if the price moves above 2320, the next levels to watch are 2342 and 2355.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2355	2342	2320	2308	2280	2260

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.14.2024​

Market Review: Yen Depreciation, Fed's Rate Strategy, Gold and Oil Gains Highlight Financial Landscape​

The Japanese yen depreciated to 158 per dollar, a six-week low, after the BoJ kept rates unchanged in June, following its first rate hike in seven years in March. The BoJ will continue bond purchases at the current rate, deferring any reduction decision to July. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated plans to gradually reduce the balance sheet, but the timing is uncertain. Former BOJ member Takahide Kiuchi suggested the bank will use the flexible bond purchase program as a tool for managing growth and inflation risks.

The dollar index stabilized around 105.2 on Friday, poised for a second weekly advance, driven by concerns that the Fed might keep higher rates for longer. Despite softer US consumer inflation and a decline in producer prices, the Fed left its policy rate unchanged, signaling only one rate cut this year. Weekly initial unemployment claims surged to a ten-month high. The dollar is expected to post its largest gains against the euro due to political uncertainties in Europe, while also advancing against the yen and yuan but weakening against the sterling, Aussie, and Kiwi

Gold stayed above $2,300 per ounce on Friday, on track for its first weekly increase in four weeks. Investors weighed softer US inflation data against the Fed's interest rate projections. US PPI for May unexpectedly declined due to lower energy costs, following cooler consumer inflation data. The latest FOMC dot-plot projections showed an average expectation of one 25 basis point rate cut this year, with some members projecting no cuts.

WTI crude futures dipped towards $78 per barrel on Friday but were set for a weekly gain of over 3%, supported by a robust global demand outlook. The US EIA raised its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day. OPEC maintained an optimistic outlook for oil demand growth due to expected increases in travel and tourism. Russia committed to its OPEC+ output commitments after surpassing its quota in May. US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories rose more than expected last week.

Post automatically merged: Jun 14, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.14.2024​

EUR/USD Faces Selling Pressure, Retests 1.0730 Level​

After encountering selling pressure at 1.0815, the EUR/USD pair retraced to retest the 1.0730 level. The initial support level expected to hold the price is situated at 1.0720. Below this level, the levels to watch are 1.0700 and 1.0660, respectively. On the upside, the first resistance level is found at 1.0750. Above this level, the levels to monitor are 1.0780 and 1.0815, correspondingly.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0815	1.0780	1.0750	1.0720	1.0700	1.0660

Post automatically merged: Jun 14, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.14.2024​

Gold Faces Resistance at 2320, Key Support at 2296​

The first resistance level for gold stands at 2320. Beyond this point, sequential resistance levels would be at 2342 and 2355. On the downside, the first support level is at 2296, coinciding with yesterday's low. Below this level, attention should be paid to 2280 and 2260.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2355	2342	2320	2296	2280	2260

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.24.2024​

Market Review: Euro Faces Pressure Amid French Election Uncertainty and Fiscal Concerns​

The Dollar advanced to its highest level since May 9 following the release of Friday's flash PMI data, which indicated that US business activity rose to a 26-month high in June. This data supports the case for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) patient approach to policy adjustments. However, the presence of easing inflationary pressures suggests that a rate cut in September remains a possibility. This scenario may restrain USD bulls from making aggressive bets and could limit further depreciation in the EUR/USD pair. Traders are likely to await this week's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data on Friday, which will play a crucial role in shaping the near-term USD price dynamics and potentially influencing the Fed's decisions on rate cuts.

The Euro continues to face pressures due to uncertainties surrounding the outcome of the upcoming snap election in France. There are concerns that a new government could exacerbate the fiscal situation in the Eurozone’s second-largest economy, potentially destabilizing the region's financial stability.

The British Pound (GBP) remains under pressure following the Bank of England's (BoE) dovish stance last week, which has increased expectations of an interest rate cut at the August monetary policy meeting. Additionally, the latest flash UK PMIs, released on Friday, showed that private sector business activity in June expanded at the slowest pace since last November. Traders may also be cautious about placing aggressive directional bets ahead of the UK general election on July 4, especially given the lack of significant macroeconomic releases on Monday.

Gold Prices edged higher on Monday, influenced by a drop in Treasury yields. Eyes are on the Fed officials for the next interest rate cuts.

Oil Prices slightly decreased on Monday amidst renewed concerns that interest rates might remain high for an extended period, which has strengthened the dollar. However, support for the oil markets persists due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ supply cuts. Notably, both benchmark crude contracts saw approximately a 3% gain last week, driven by signs of robust demand for oil products in the US and constrained supply. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly from the Gaza crisis and increased Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, continue to support oil prices.

Post automatically merged: Jun 24, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.24.2024​

EUR/USD Forms Double Bottom, Eyes Resistance at 1.0730​

EUR/USD: A double bottom pattern is forming after searching the level 1.0680 support level. The next resistance level is at around the 1.0730 level followed by the 1.0780.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0780	1.0750	1.0730	1.0680	1.0665	1.0610

Post automatically merged: Jun 24, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.24.2024​

Gold Shows a Head and Shoulders Pattern with the Next Support at 2332​

The price of gold is showing a head and shoulders pattern on its daily chart, which indicates a possible reversal, but further confirmation from fundamentals is needed. In the short term, the next support is at the 2332 level; if the price falls below this, the next support is at 2320.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2395	2375	2362	2346	2332	2320

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.25.2024​

Investors Cautiously Await Key Economic Data as Geopolitical Tensions Simmer​

The dollar index remained below 105.5 on Tuesday, reflecting a 0.3% decline from the previous session, as investors awaited the upcoming US PCE inflation data and comments from the Federal Reserve to gain insights into future interest rate decisions. This anticipation comes with preparations for the first US presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump scheduled for Thursday. Last week, the dollar reached a near two-month high, contrasting with other major central banks that have started easing their rates earlier due to the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts.

The euro experienced a slight decline of 0.1% to $1.0725, influenced by political unrest in France following President Emmanuel Macron's unexpected decision to call a snap election earlier in the month. Despite this, the euro has mostly maintained its position within the $1.07-1.08 range throughout the year. Upcoming inflation data from Germany and France, along with the initial round of the French election on Sunday, are expected to be significant for the euro's performance.

The Japanese yen continued to strengthen for the second consecutive session, with the USD/JPY pair nearing the 160.00 level, a point that previously triggered substantial yen-buying interventions by Japanese authorities. Japan's Corporate Service Price Index showed a slight deceleration in growth, increasing by 2.5% in May compared to 2.7% in April. Investors are now focusing on additional domestic economic reports, including retail sales and unemployment data for May, as well as Tokyo's inflation figures for June.

Gold prices saw a decrease on Tuesday, while the market's attention is fixed on the forthcoming key US inflation data, which could clarify the Federal Reserve's position on interest rate adjustments. Oil prices remained stable after a 1% increase in the previous session, driven by expectations of stronger demand during the summer and ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. However, gains were limited due to cautious investor sentiment ahead of the PCE data release and concerns over the demand outlook in China. Additionally, ongoing conflicts, such as Ukrainian missile strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, continue to support oil prices.

Post automatically merged: Jun 25, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.25.2024​

EUR/USD Reversal Validates with Potential Breakout Above 1.0730​

EUR/USD: The pair's reversal pattern has been confirmed, with the price reaching the 1.0730 resistance area. A potential breakout above this level could propel the price toward the next target at 1.0780.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0780	1.0750	1.0730	1.0680	1.0665	1.0610

Post automatically merged: Jun 25, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.25.2024​

Gold Exhibits Head and Shoulders Pattern, Signaling Potential Reversal​

The price of gold is displaying a head and shoulders pattern on its daily chart, suggesting a potential reversal. However, further confirmation from fundamental analysis is necessary. In the short term, the price is exhibiting uncertain movements, with the next support at the 2332 level. If the price falls below this, the subsequent support is at 2320.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2395	2375	2362	2346	2332	2320

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.26.2024​

Inflation Surges, Rate Hikes, and Political Pressures Shake Up Forex Markets​

In May, Australian inflation surged to a six-month high, leading traders to consider the possibility of a rate hike, which subsequently boosted the Australian dollar. The probability of an increase by September is now seen as just over 50% by short-term interest rate markets.

In the United States, expectations are mounting that upcoming data will show a deceleration in the annual growth of the Federal Reserve's preferred core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index to 2.6% in May, marking the lowest rate in more than three years. This slowdown could potentially open the door to future rate cuts. However, Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman have indicated a cautious approach, underscoring that policy decisions will remain data-dependent.

Japan's Vice Finance Minister Masato Kanda reaffirmed the government's readiness to act should excessive fluctuations in the yen adversely affect the national economy. Despite these statements, the impact on the yen was minimal, largely due to the Bank of Japan's reluctance to outline a plan for reducing bond purchases, a stark contrast to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. This suggests that the USD/JPY pair might continue to rise.

The euro is currently facing pressure ahead of the first round of the French legislative elections, where the far-right National Rally party is expected to make significant gains. This political uncertainty is affecting the stability of the euro.

Meanwhile, recent hawkish comments from influential Federal Reserve officials suggest that the US central bank is not likely to begin reducing interest rates soon, given the ongoing resilience of the US economy. This has led to a modest increase in US Treasury bond yields, which supports the US dollar and puts downward pressure on gold, which does not yield interest. Despite this, the possibility of a rate cut in September remains, influenced by weaker consumer and producer prices in May. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine also support the price of gold as a safe-haven asset. US final first-quarter GDP figures are expected on Thursday, and the PCE Price Index on Friday.

Post automatically merged: Jun 26, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.26.2024​

EURUSD Tests Support, Eyes Further Dip to 1.0665​

The EURUSD pair has returned to a price range after hitting the resistance area at 1.0730 and is now near the support level of around 1.0680. If it breaks below this level, the price may move towards the next target at 1.0665.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0780	1.0750	1.0730	1.0680	1.0665	1.0610

Post automatically merged: Jun 26, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.26.2024​

Gold Awaits Confirmation for Potential Reversal​

The price of gold is displaying a head and shoulders pattern on its daily chart, suggesting a potential reversal. However, further confirmation from fundamental analysis is necessary. In the short term, the price is exhibiting uncertain movements, with the next support at the 2332 level. If the price falls below this, the subsequent support is at 2320.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2395	2375	2362	2346	2332	2320

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.27.2024​

Fed's Inflation Outlook Key as Dollar Pulls Back​

The dollar has edged lower after reaching its highest level in two months against a basket of currencies. This movement comes in anticipation of US economic data releases scheduled for this afternoon, including a potential drop in durable goods orders. Such data might restrict further appreciation of the greenback. The Federal Reserve has consistently stated that it requires greater confidence in the inflation outlook before considering a policy ease. This stance contrasts with other major central banks like the European Central Bank (ECB), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the Bank of Canada (BOC), all of which have already reduced rates. Investors are now focusing on the upcoming economic indicators to refine their market outlook. These include weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders, and pending home sales data set for release on Thursday, along with Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report. These data points are crucial for guiding expectations regarding future monetary policy and economic performance.

The yen remained near a 38-year low on Thursday, struggling below the 160 per dollar mark, which has kept markets vigilant for any signs of intervention by Japanese authorities aimed at supporting the currency. Over the month, the yen has depreciated by approximately 2% and by 12% for the year against a robust dollar. This decline is largely attributed to significant interest rate differentials between the US and Japan, which continue to make the yen an attractive funding currency for carry trades.

However, the Australian dollar experienced a rise, bolstered by an unexpected increase in domestic inflation reported on Wednesday. This development has led markets to anticipate further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia within the year.

Gold prices saw a slight increase on Thursday, with the market's attention firmly on the upcoming US inflation data, which could provide insights into the Federal Reserve's next steps regarding interest rates. At the end of June, the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish stance, with policymakers leaning towards only one interest rate cut by the end of the year. This outlook has supported higher US Treasury bond yields, which in turn, act as a headwind for gold, a non-yielding asset.

Despite this, signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US maintain the possibility of a September interest rate cut by the Fed, keeping this option on the table. However, this has not helped the US Dollar capitalize on its strong performance the previous day, when it nearly reached a two-month peak. The softer tone in equity markets, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainties also provide some support to gold as a safe-haven asset. Traders remain cautious, with a keen focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index due on Friday, which is expected to significantly influence the Fed's policy decisions.

Post automatically merged: Jun 27, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.27.2024​

Potential Decline for EUR/USD Below Key Support at 1.0680​

EUR/USD: The currency pair has settled back into a price range after encountering resistance at 1.0730 and is currently hovering near the support level of 1.0680. Should it break below this level, the pair could potentially decline towards the next target of 1.0665.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0780	1.0750	1.0730	1.0680	1.0665	1.0610

Post automatically merged: Jun 27, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.27.2024​

Gold Price Tests 2332 Support Amid Uncertain Movements​

The price of gold is displaying a head and shoulders pattern on its daily chart, suggesting a potential reversal. However, further confirmation from fundamental analysis is necessary. In the short term, the price is exhibiting uncertain movements, with the next support at the 2332 level. If the price falls below this, the subsequent support is at 2320.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2395	2375	2362	2346	2332	2320

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.28.2024​

Global Markets React to Political Uncertainty and Inflation Data: Euro Declines, Dollar Surges, and Commodity Prices Rise​

The euro is on track for its largest monthly drop since January, impacted by political uncertainty leading up to France's general elections. Yet, the dollar has surged to a near four-decade high against the beleaguered yen, ahead of critical inflation data.

Investors fear that a new French government might escalate fiscal spending, which could undermine the sustainability of France's public debt and destabilize the eurozone's financial system. This concern has driven the risk premium on French government bonds to its highest level since 2012, just ahead of the first round of voting in the country's parliamentary elections. There is apprehension that a coalition led by either far-right or far-left parties could increase fiscal spending.

The dollar is set for a second consecutive quarterly gain, reaching a near four-decade high against the yen. Traders are cautiously probing Japan's determination to defend its currency while awaiting crucial U.S. inflation data. During the political landscape, Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump launched a series of sometimes inaccurate criticisms against President Joe Biden in their first campaign debate in Atlanta. The dollar strengthened as Biden stumbled over his words in several early exchanges.

Core inflation in Tokyo accelerated in June, but this has done little to strengthen the yen. Persistently low Japanese interest rates have encouraged the selling of yen for higher-yielding currencies, despite rising Japanese yields and official warnings of possible currency intervention. Japan has replaced its top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, with financial regulation expert Atsushi Mimura. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki expressed deep concern over the impact of "rapid and one-sided" movements in the yen.

Gold prices are edging higher ahead of key U.S. inflation data, supported by recent jobless claims figures that suggest a softening labor market. This has raised hopes that the Federal Reserve might soon begin to cut rates. Moreover, safe-haven demand has surged in recent weeks amid a challenging political environment. Upcoming elections in France, the U.K., and the U.S. are fueling concerns over potential policy changes.

Oil prices are climbing on the anticipation that the U.S. central bank will soon start cutting interest rates and due to growing fears of an expanded conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed militia group Hezbollah.

Post automatically merged: Jun 28, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.28.2024​

EUR/USD Stalls Near Resistance at 1.0730​

EUR/USD: The currency pair remains directionless within a price range after encountering resistance at 1.0730 and is currently hovering near the support level of 1.0680. If it breaks below this level, the pair could potentially decline towards the next target of 1.0665.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0780	1.0750	1.0730	1.0680	1.0665	1.0610

Post automatically merged: Jun 28, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.28.2024​

Head and Shoulders Pattern in Gold: 2332 Key Support Level​

The price of gold continues to display a head and shoulders pattern on its daily chart, suggesting a potential reversal and continuous uncertainty at the moment. However, further confirmation from fundamentals is necessary. In the short term, the price is exhibiting uncertain movements, with the next support at the 2332 level. If the price falls below this, the subsequent support is at 2320.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2395	2375	2362	2346	2332	2320

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.01.2024​

Market Review: Euro Gains Pressure Dollar Amid French Election Results and US Inflation Data​

The offshore Chinese yuan fell below 7.30 per dollar, nearing its lowest point in over seven months, amid mixed reactions to recent Chinese PMI data. While a private survey indicated strong growth in the manufacturing sector in June, hitting a three-year high and surpassing forecasts, suggesting positive momentum in industrial activity, official figures released over the weekend painted a less optimistic picture. These figures revealed ongoing contraction in manufacturing for the second straight month, highlighting the necessity for further stimulus measures as China aims to stabilize its economy.

The Japanese yen traded at 161 per dollar, closely approaching a 38-year low of 161.28 reached last week following a downward revision in Japan’s first-quarter GDP, which continued to weigh on the currency. The revised data showed that Japan's economy contracted at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the January-March period, a steeper decline from the previously reported 1.8%, largely due to weaker public works spending. Despite this, confidence among large Japanese manufacturing firms rose to a two-year high in Q2, reflecting an improved economic outlook. Last week, the yen fell to its lowest levels in decades after Atsushi Mimura was appointed as Japan’s top currency diplomat by the Ministry of Finance, amid increasing pressures to bolster the currency. The yen depreciated by 2.3% against the dollar in June, extending its year-to-date decline to approximately 14%, as the Bank of Japan pursued a more cautious approach in its monetary policy normalization efforts compared to market expectations.

On Monday, the dollar index edged down towards 105.6, marking its third consecutive decline, primarily due to the euro's strength following the initial round of France's snap election held over the weekend. Marine Le Pen's National Rally secured victory in the first round of the parliamentary election as widely predicted, although their lead was narrower than expected. The dollar had already come under pressure on Friday after US PCE inflation figures for May showed a slowdown, reinforcing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. Currently, markets are pricing in a 63% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, with increased chances also seen for moves in November and December. Investors are now awaiting US manufacturing activity data later in the day for further economic insights and potential impacts on monetary policy. Among major currencies, the dollar showed its largest weakness against the euro, the British pound, and currencies from Australia and New Zealand.

On Monday, gold maintained its position around $2,325 per ounce as investors continued to evaluate recent US inflation figures. Last Friday, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of core inflation slowed to its lowest annual rate since 2021, sparking optimism that price increases may align with target levels and bolstering expectations for two interest rate cuts by the central bank this year. Additionally, prospects of rate cuts in other major economies, including anticipated moves by the Bank of England following the UK's election and further easing by the People's Bank of China to support economic recovery, provided further support to bullion prices. Investors are now closely monitoring upcoming US payrolls data and the release of FOMC meeting minutes this week to gain insights into the timing of potential Fed rate adjustments. Meanwhile, in India, the second-largest consumer of gold, demand for physical gold remained subdued last week amid elevated prices.

Post automatically merged: Jul 1, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.01.2024​

EUR/USD Opens with Upward Gap Amid French Election News​

Due to the news flow related to the elections in France, the EUR/USD pair started the week with an upward gap. The first resistance level is at 1.0780, followed by 1.0810 and 1.0840 respectively. On the downside, the first support is at 1.0750, followed by subsequent supports at 1.0710 and 1.0670.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0840	1.0810	1.0780	1.0750	1.0710	1.0670

Post automatically merged: Jul 1, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.01.2024​

Gold Faces Initial Support at 2317​

For gold, the first support is at 2317, with subsequent levels to monitor at 2297 and 2280 respectively if this level is breached. On the upside, the first resistance is at 2332, followed by levels at 2358 and 2375 if the price moves higher.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2375	2358	2332	2317	2297	2280

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.02.2024​

Yuan Climbs to Seven-Month High as PBOC Signals Readiness for Depreciation​

The Chinese yuan has risen above 7.30 against the US dollar, reaching its highest point in more than seven months amid cautious market sentiment influenced by the People's Bank of China's less optimistic stance. The central bank set its daily midpoint at 7.1291 yuan per dollar, the weakest since November 21, indicating a readiness to allow further yuan depreciation. This trend is largely attributed to a strong US dollar, supported by rising US bond yields and speculation surrounding Donald Trump's potential return to the presidency. Investors are now focused on upcoming Chinese PMI data scheduled for release tomorrow and inflation figures next week, crucial indicators for assessing the health of the world's second-largest economy.

WTI crude futures reached about $83.5 per barrel on Tuesday, hitting their highest level in over two months. This surge was driven by expectations of increased summer travel demand, with the American Automobile Association forecasting a 5.2% annual growth in holiday travel and a 4.8% rise in car travel from last year. Additionally, bets on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts were supportive, following optimism from softer US inflation data suggesting earlier monetary easing could stimulate economic activity and fuel demand. Investors are now focused on remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the release of FOMC meeting minutes, and upcoming US nonfarm payroll data for further insights into the Fed's interest rate outlook.

On Tuesday, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged down to approximately 4.44%, staying close to its highest levels in a month. Recent events, including last week's debate and a Supreme Court ruling granting broad immunity to ex-presidents, have increased speculation about Donald Trump potentially serving a second term. A potential return of Trump is viewed as likely to drive inflation due to anticipated policies such as tax cuts, stricter immigration measures, and higher tariffs on imports. Federal Reserve monetary policy is expected with soft US inflation data for May and weak manufacturing figures for June. Insights from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks will also be released, alongside the central bank meeting minutes later this week.

Gold held steady at around $2,330 per ounce, after a slight increase in the previous session. Traders are awaiting upcoming US economic data and Federal Reserve comments to gauge the Fed’s future interest rate decisions. Key events include Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later today, the release of FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Recent data, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI shrinking for the third straight month in June and factory input prices hitting a six-month low, provided some support to gold by suggesting ongoing easing in inflation pressures. ECB President Christine Lagarde mentioned on Monday that the ECB is taking time to ensure inflation approaches 2% and indicated no urgency for rate cuts.

Post automatically merged: Jul 2, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.02.2024​

EUR/USD Dips After Early Gains, Pressured by Low German CPI​

After starting the week with an upward gap due to political tensions in the Eurozone, EUR/USD faced a drop with a low German CPI. The first resistance level is at 1.0750, followed by 1.0780 and 1.0810 respectively. On the downside, the first support is at 1.0710, followed by subsequent supports at 1.0670 and 1.0630.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0810	1.0780	1.0750	1.0710	1.0670	1.0630

Post automatically merged: Jul 2, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.02.2024​

Gold Tests Key Support at 2317, Resistance Looms at 2338​

For gold, the first support is at 2317, with subsequent levels to monitor at 2297 and 2280 respectively if this level is breached. On the upside, the first resistance is at 2338, followed by levels at 2358 and 2375 if the price moves higher.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2375	2358	2338	2317	2297	2280

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.03.2024​

Market Outlook: Middle East Tensions and Fed Policy Outlook Keep Gold Steady​

Gold remained near $2,330 per ounce on Wednesday, steady after a slight decline. Fed Chair Powell's cautious remarks on a gradual US economic slowdown and the need for more data to confirm lower inflation influenced investor sentiment. US job openings for May exceeded expectations, showing a rebound but indicating ongoing labor market softness. Attention shifted to the FOMC meeting minutes and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for insights into Fed policy. Tensions in the Middle East, with Israeli actions in Gaza, also drew international concern.

The dollar index stabilized around 105.7 on Wednesday after recent declines, as investors assessed the Fed's monetary policy amidst strong job market data and Powell’s comments. The JOLTS report showed a notable increase of 221,000 job openings in May, totaling 8.140 million, surpassing expectations of 7.91 million. Powell noted progress in managing inflation but stressed the need for further confidence before considering rate cuts. Focus shifted to the latest FOMC meeting minutes and upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for further clarity. The dollar remained near three-year highs against the yen.

The yen hovered around 161.6 per dollar, its lowest since 1986, raising concerns about potential government intervention. The yen's weakness was driven by interest rate differentials between Japan and the US and speculation of a potential second term for Donald Trump, which could increase Treasury yields. The BoJ's cautious approach to monetary policy normalization also pressured the yen, though speculation is growing about a possible rate hike at the BoJ's late July meeting. The BoJ highlighted that a weak yen raises import costs, adding to inflationary pressures and reducing household consumption. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government's vigilance on currency movements, noting that exchange rates are influenced by multiple factors.

Post automatically merged: Jul 3, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.03.2024​

EUR/USD Trades Steady: Resistance at 1.0750 and Beyond​

Ahead of news flows from the United States, the EUR/USD pair traded flat for the week. The first resistance level stands at 1.0750, with subsequent levels to watch at 1.0780 and 1.0810 if this level is surpassed. On the downside, the first support level is at 1.0730, followed by additional supports at 1.0700 and 1.0670 if the price falls below this level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0810	1.0780	1.0750	1.0730	1.0700	1.0670

Post automatically merged: Jul 3, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.03.2024​

Gold Trading Sideways: Resistance at 2338 and Above​

Gold continues to trade within a horizontal range. The first resistance is at 2338, with subsequent levels to watch at 2358 and 2375 if this level is breached. On the downside, the first support level is at 2320, followed by further supports at 2300 and 2280 if the price falls below this level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2375	2358	2338	2320	2300	2280

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.04.2024​

Gold Gains Ground on Slower US Job Growth and Services Contraction​

Gold surged to approximately $2,360 per ounce on Thursday, nearing its highest levels in four weeks following new US economic data that strengthened expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. In June, US services activity unexpectedly contracted sharply, marking its steepest decline in four years and suggesting decreased inflationary pressures. Furthermore, continuing jobless claims extended their nine-week increase streak, while private payrolls in June expanded at a slower pace. Federal Reserve officials acknowledged a slowing US economy during their June meeting but advocated for a cautious approach to rate cuts, according to the latest FOMC minutes. Additionally, heightened tensions in the Middle East, sparked by reports of Israel's targeting of a senior Hezbollah commander and subsequent retaliatory actions by Hezbollah near the border, spurred safe-haven demand for the precious metal.

On Thursday, the dollar index stabilized around 105.3 after reaching a three-week low in the previous session, pressured by lackluster US economic data that heightened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Data released Wednesday revealed an unexpected contraction in US services activity for June, coupled with weaker private employment growth, signaling a decelerating economy. Meanwhile, minutes from the Fed’s June policy meeting indicated a divergence among members regarding the duration of maintaining the terminal rate, while emphasizing a cautious stance on rate cuts. Investors are now focused on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for further insights into the labor market. Currently, markets are pricing in approximately a 68% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, a notable increase from around 56% just a week ago. The dollar softened broadly but remained near 38-year highs against the yen.

Post automatically merged: Jul 4, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.04.2024​

GBP/USD Faces First Support at 1.2735 After Rally​

GBP/USD, which closed yesterday with a rally, has its first support at 1.2735. Below this level, subsequent supports are at 1.2680 and 1.2620 respectively. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.2780, with further resistances at 1.2800 and 1.2860 if this level is exceeded.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.2860	1.2800	1.2780	1.2735	1.2680	1.2620

Post automatically merged: Jul 4, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.04.2024​

Gold Tests Resistance at 2364, with Eyes on 2375 and 2395​

For gold, the initial resistance is at 2364, with subsequent levels at 2375 and 2395 above that. On the downside, the first support is at 2343, followed by 2332 and 2320 respectively.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2395	2375	2364	2343	2332	2320

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.05.2024​

Yen Strengthens Against Dollar with Fed Rate Cut Speculation​

The Japanese yen strengthened beyond 161 per dollar, recovering slightly from its lowest point in 38 years. This gain was primarily due to a weakening US dollar, as disappointing US economic data reinforced expectations that the Fed might begin reducing interest rates as early as September. Concerns about potential government intervention also supported the yen, as Japanese authorities had spent nearly 10 trillion yen from late April to late May to stabilize the currency after it fell below the 160 per dollar mark. However, the yen remained under pressure due to significant interest rate differentials between Japan and other major economies, prompting investors to borrow yen and invest in higher-yielding currencies. Additionally, the Bank of Japan's cautious approach to adjusting monetary policy added to the yen's challenges, despite growing speculation that the BoJ might raise rates at its upcoming policy meeting in late July. Furthermore, the BoJ had announced plans to outline the phasing out of its bond purchasing program later this month.

On Friday, the dollar index maintained its recent decline around 105, staying near three-week lows before the US jobs report which potentially will reveal further signs of a cooling labor market. Earlier in the week, data highlighted an unexpected contraction in services activity and disappointing private employment figures in the US, reinforcing a dovish sentiment towards Fed policy. Currently, markets are pricing in a roughly 73% probability of rate cuts by the Fed starting in September. Externally, the dollar encountered pressure from a strengthening euro following concerns expressed by ECB policymakers about recent inflation trends. Meanwhile, the British pound strengthened on indications from polls suggesting a decisive victory for the Labor Party in the upcoming UK general election.

Gold rose to approximately $2,360 per ounce on Friday and was on track for its second weekly gain. Earlier in the week, data revealing a surprise contraction in US services activity and disappointing private employment figures supported a cautious outlook on Fed policy. Markets currently expect a 73% likelihood of Fed rate cuts beginning in September. Political developments in Europe were under watch, including the Labor party victory in the UK general election and projections that Marine Le Pen's National Rally party would fall short of a majority in France's parliamentary election. Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, involving Israel's dual challenges with Hamas and Hezbollah, continued to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Post automatically merged: Jul 5, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.05.2024​

EUR/USD Eyes Resistance at 1.0830 After Closing Higher​

The EUR/USD pair, which closed higher yesterday, is expected to encounter its first resistance at 1.0830, followed by subsequent levels at 1.0865 and 1.0900 above this point. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0810, with further levels to watch at 1.0780 and 1.0750 below this level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0900	1.0865	1.0830	1.0810	1.0780	1.0750

Post automatically merged: Jul 5, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.05.2024​

Gold Targets Resistance at 2375​

For gold, the first resistance will be at 2375, with subsequent levels to watch above at 2395 and 2405. On the downside, the initial support is at 2360, with further levels to monitor below at 2345 and 2330.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2405	2395	2375	2360	2345	2330

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.08.2024​

Market Focus Shifts to Upcoming US CPI and PPI Releases​

On Monday, the dollar index remained below 105 after a nearly 1% decline the previous week, influenced by disappointing US economic data and a rising unemployment rate of 4.1% in June. Market sentiment indicates a 76% probability of a Fed rate cut in September and another by December. Investors await US inflation figures and Fed guidance. The dollar edged up against the euro after the French election hinted at a hung parliament.

WTI crude futures slipped below $83 per barrel, extending losses amid mixed US employment data and concerns about economic slowdown affecting oil demand. A potential Gaza ceasefire and closed Texas ports due to Tropical Storm Beryl also influenced prices.

Gold eased below $2,390 per ounce but remained near six-week highs, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts in response to weak US economic data. Markets are pricing a 78% chance of a September rate cut. Focus is on upcoming US CPI and PPI releases, Fed Chair Powell's testimony, and political developments in France.

Post automatically merged: Jul 8, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.08.2024​

EUR/USD Pair Starts Week with Downward Gap, Recovery in Progress​

The pair, which started the week with a downward gap, continues its recovery effort. The initial resistance is at 1.0830, followed by 1.0865 and 1.0900 above that. On the downside, the first support is at 1.0810, with subsequent supports at 1.0780 and 1.0750 below that.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0900	1.0865	1.0830	1.0810	1.0780	1.0750

Post automatically merged: Jul 8, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.08.2024​

Gold's Initial Resistance at 2400 Amid Flat Start to the Week​

In the yellow metal, which started the week flat, the initial resistance is at 2400, with subsequent levels at 2430 and 2450 above that. On the downside, the first support is at 2375, followed by 2365 and 2350 below that.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2450	2430	2400	2375	2365	2350

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.09.2024​

Market Review: Investors Eye Powell’s Testimony as Gold Surges Past $2,360​

Gold climbed above $2,360 per ounce on Tuesday, recovering from losses as investors focused on Fed Chair Powell's testimony before Congress. Last week's data revealed a weakening US labor market, with unemployment hitting a two-and-a-half-year high and wage growth dropping to a three-year low, suggesting potential early rate cuts by the Fed. Markets are pricing in a 77% probability of a September rate reduction and another in December. Investors await crucial inflation data on Thursday, while monitoring Middle East geopolitical developments.

The yen weakened to around 161 per dollar, reversing gains as investors awaited Powell’s testimony and upcoming US inflation data. Last week, the yen dropped to new 38-year lows due to significant interest rate differentials and the BoJ's reluctance to normalize policies. Speculation of a potential rate hike at the BoJ's late July meeting is growing, while recent yen strength was due to disappointing US economic indicators and possible Japanese intervention.

The dollar index stabilized around 105 on Tuesday ahead of Powell’s testimony and US inflation data, which could provide insights into future rate movements. The index remained near its lowest in over three weeks, following a nearly 1% decline last week due to soft US economic indicators. Market sentiment reflects a 76% likelihood of a September Fed rate cut, with another expected in December. Investors are also evaluating potential impacts from French political developments and the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision.

Post automatically merged: Jul 9, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.09.2024​

EUR/USD Eyes 1.0830 Resistance Amid Market Movements​

In the EUR/USD pair, the initial resistance will be at 1.0830, followed by 1.0865 and 1.0900 if this level is surpassed. On the downside, the first support is at 1.0810, with subsequent supports at 1.0780 and 1.0750 below that.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0900	1.0865	1.0830	1.0810	1.0780	1.0750

Post automatically merged: Jul 9, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.09.2024​

Gold Eyes 2375 Resistance Amid Market Movements​

In gold, the first support is at 2355, with subsequent levels at 2335 and 2320 below that. Above, the initial resistance is at 2375, followed by 2395 and 2430 if this level is surpassed.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2430	2395	2375	2355	2335	2320

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.10.2024​

Gold Prices Climb Toward $2,370 with Fed Rate Cut Speculation​

The price of gold rose towards $2,370 per ounce on Wednesday, continuing its upward trend from the previous day after speculation of imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve increased. All eyes are now on the release of US CPI data as traders adjust their positions. During his hearing before Congress, Fed Chairman Powell acknowledged improvements in the second quarter data but emphasized the need for additional information to boost confidence in the inflation outlook. Powell also pointed to a slowdown in the US economy and signs of easing in the labor market, reinforcing expectations of possible rate cuts. The markets currently expect a 73% probability of interest rate cuts by the Fed in September. In addition, the precious metal has been supported by rising demand for gold exchange-traded funds, which saw inflows for the second time in June.

Following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to maintain interest rates at 5.5% for the eighth meeting, the New Zealand dollar dropped to approximately $0.609. The central bank, as anticipated, emphasized its commitment to keeping monetary policy restrictive until inflation returns within its targeted 1 to 3% range. Significant progress towards achieving this goal was acknowledged, with expectations now set for inflation to stabilize within the target band in the latter half of the year. Investor focus has shifted to upcoming second-quarter inflation data from New Zealand, expected next week, which is anticipated to provide further guidance. Additionally, the Kiwi faced external pressure from a strong US dollar following remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell to the Senate, reiterating the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on potential interest rate cuts.

On Wednesday, the dollar index advanced towards 105.2, marking its third consecutive session of gains, following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirming the central bank's cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Powell emphasized the Fed's requirement for more conclusive data indicating sustainable inflation movement towards 2% before considering rate reductions. However, he cautioned against maintaining restrictive policies excessively, which could inadvertently dampen economic activity and employment. Investors are now focused on Powell's upcoming testimony before the House and upcoming US inflation data later this week for further insights into future monetary policy directions. Despite market expectations indicating a greater than 70% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, with a second decrease nearly fully anticipated by December, the dollar showed cautious gains against most major currencies, while adopting a careful approach against the New Zealand dollar before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy decision.

Post automatically merged: Jul 10, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.10.2024​

EUR/USD Eyes Resistance at 1.0830, Support at 1.0810​

The initial resistance will be at 1.0830 for EUR/USD, followed by 1.0865 and 1.0900 if this level is surpassed. On the downside, the first support is at 1.0810, with subsequent supports at 1.0780 and 1.0750 below that.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0900	1.0865	1.0830	1.0810	1.0780	1.0750

Post automatically merged: Jul 10, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.10.2024​

GBP/USD Eyes Support at 1.2775, Resistance at 1.2820​

In GBP/USD, the first support is at 1.2775, with subsequent levels at 1.2735 and 1.2680 below that. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 1.2820, followed by 1.2860 and 1.2900 if this level is surpassed.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.2900	1.2860	1.2820	1.2775	1.2735	1.2680

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.11.2024​

Market Outlook: UK Economy Surpasses Expectations with 0.4% Growth in May 2024​

In May 2024, the British economy expanded by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.2%. Liz McKeown of ONS credited strong performances in retail, wholesale, and construction. Construction saw its fastest growth in nearly a year, driven by house building and infrastructure projects. The services sector grew by 0.3%, matching April. Retail trade rose by 2.9%, while professional, scientific, and technical activities grew by 1%. Industrial production increased by 0.2%, recovering from a 0.9% decline in April, led by a 0.4% rise in manufacturing. Food products, beverages, and tobacco production increased by 1.7%. Construction output surged by 1.9%, reversing a 1.1% contraction in April, with new construction work up 2.7% and repair and maintenance activities up 0.8%.

On Thursday, gold climbed above $2,380 per ounce for the third session, driven by anticipation of US CPI data. Analysts expect annual CPI inflation to drop from 3.3% to 3.1% in June, with core CPI steady at 3.4%. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that rate cuts will depend on more data. Markets indicate a 73% chance of a September rate cut, with another cut expected by December. Global gold ETFs saw inflows for the second month, driven by funds in Europe and Asia.

On Thursday, the dollar index held just below 105 as traders awaited the US inflation report. The June CPI report is expected to show a 0.1% increase in consumer prices, with core CPI up 0.2%. Fed Chair Powell commented that waiting for inflation to hit 2% might be too late, emphasizing the need for more data. Market sentiment reflects a 70% chance of a September Fed rate cut, with another cut expected by year-end. The dollar faced pressure against the pound as the Bank of England ruled out August rate cuts.

Post automatically merged: Jul 11, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.11.2024​

EUR/USD Faces Key Support at 1.0810 Amid Market Movements​

In the currency pair, the initial resistance will be at 1.0865, followed by 1.0900 and 1.0950 if this level is surpassed. On the downside, the first support is at 1.0810, with subsequent supports at 1.0780 and 1.0750 below that.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0950	1.0900	1.0865	1.0810	1.0780	1.0750

Post automatically merged: Jul 11, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.11.2024​

Gold Eyes Support at 2368​

In gold the first support is at 2368, with subsequent levels at 2345 and 2320 below that. Above, the initial resistance is at 2395, followed by 2405 and 2430 if this level is surpassed.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2430	2405	2395	2368	2345	2320

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.12.2024​

US Inflation Data Boosts Gold Prices, Traders Eye Fed Rate Cut​

On Friday, gold dipped below $2,410 per ounce after a nearly 2% increase in the previous session but remains poised for its third consecutive weekly gain. Softer-than-expected US inflation figures, with headline inflation easing to a one-year low of 3% in June and annual core inflation dropping to a three-year low of 3.3%, boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Traders now see a 93% probability of a September rate cut, up from 73% earlier in the week. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supports rate cuts, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee remains optimistic about achieving 2% inflation.

The dollar index hovered around 104.5 on Friday, poised for a second weekly decline, as subdued US inflation and recent Fed statements solidified expectations of a September rate cut. The index dropped sharply to 104.08 on Thursday after reports showed US annual inflation fell to 3% in June, a one-year low, missing expectations of 3.1%. Market sentiment now reflects over a 90% probability of a September rate cut, up from around 70% earlier in the week. Investors await US producer inflation data for further insights. The dollar faced pressure from a strengthening yen amidst suspected Japanese intervention.

The Japanese yen hovered around 159 per dollar on Friday, showing volatility after a significant rebound in the previous session due to suspected intervention amidst cooler-than-expected US inflation data. The yen surged by 2.6% to 157.42 per dollar on Thursday, reportedly spurred by official purchases to support the currency after it fell to 38-year lows. Reports indicated that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) conducted rate checks with banks on the euro-yen cross, raising concerns of additional intervention. Senior currency diplomat Masato Kanda declined to confirm government involvement in the yen's rally. Investors focus on the BOJ's late July policy meeting, expecting plans for tapering bond purchases and potentially raising interest rates.

 

[zForex]

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.12.2024​

EUR/USD Faces Initial Resistance at 1.0865​

In the EUR/USD pair, the initial resistance will be at 1.0865, followed by 1.0900 and 1.0950 if this level is surpassed. On the downside, the first support is at 1.0850, with subsequent supports at 1.0810 and 1.0780 below that.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0950	1.0900	1.0865	1.0850	1.0810	1.0780

Post automatically merged: Jul 12, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.12.2024​

Gold Testing Key Support at 2395​

In gold the first support is at 2395, with subsequent levels at 2365 and 2340 below that. Above, the initial resistance is at 2405, followed by 2430 and 2470 if this level is surpassed.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2470	2430	2405	2395	2365	2340

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.16.2024​

Market Outlook: Gold Soars to $2,430 with Fed Rate Cuts Nearly Priced In​

Gold surged to approximately $2,430 an ounce on Tuesday, nearing new all-time highs. This follows Fed Chair Powell's comments that strengthened expectations for imminent interest rate cuts. Powell noted that recent data "add somewhat to confidence" that inflation is moving toward the target. Investors are focused on US retail sales data and further Fed comments for guidance on monetary policy. Markets have nearly fully priced in a September rate cut, with two more reductions expected by year-end. However, gold could face pressure from a rising dollar and increasing Treasury yields.

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.605, nearing a two-week low, as investors await Q2 inflation data. Economists forecast consumer inflation slowed to 3.5% from 4%, the lowest in three years. The RBNZ maintained the cash rate at 5.5% last week but suggested policy could become less restrictive if inflation continues to decline, increasing the likelihood of an August rate cut. The Kiwi also faced pressure from a slight rise in the US dollar.

The dollar index rose above 104.3 on Tuesday, marking its second consecutive session of gains. Powell's comments that inflation is moving toward the target and the Fed won't wait for 2% before cutting rates boosted the dollar. Markets have nearly fully priced in a September rate cut, with two more expected by year-end. The dollar also received safe-haven demand after a failed assassination attempt on former President Trump. The dollar appreciated against all major currencies, with the most significant gains against the Kiwi and yen.

Post automatically merged: Jul 16, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.16.2024​

EUR/USD Eyes Resistance at 1.0895 and Beyond​

If the EUR/USD pair cannot hold above 1.0900, the first resistance level will be 1.0895. If it maintains above this level, the next resistances to watch will be 1.0920 and 1.0950. On the downside, the first support is at 1.0870, and if this level is broken, the next supports to monitor will be 1.0830 and the 200-day moving average at 1.0800.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0950	1.0920	1.0895	1.0870	1.0830	1.0800

Post automatically merged: Jul 16, 2024

GBP Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.16.2024​

Pound Extends Gains: Eyeing Resistance at 1.3000​

With the stronger-than-expected growth data, the pound continues its upward trend, with the first resistance level at 1.3000. If this level is breached and maintained, the next resistance levels to watch will be 1.3085 and 1.3150. On the downside, the first support is at 1.2920, and if this level is broken, the next supports to monitor are 1.2860 and 1.2820.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3085	1.3000	1.2920	1.2860	1.2820