Daily Market Analysis By zForex

zForex

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EUR/USD Stalls in Non-Directional Movement Near 1.0950
The EUR/USD has been moving in a non-directional way for the past six days, hovering around the area close to 1.0950 which is near the median line. There has been no significant movement or change from yesterday. The next resistance level is at 1.1000, while the support level is close to 1.0850.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.1200 1.1100 1.1000 1.0900 1.0850 1.0750

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GBP/USD's Long Bullish Trend Faces Resistance with Channel Support
The GBP/USD is currently in the price accumulation phase where the pair is correcting for the second day. The long bullish trend faces a challenge from the resistance level at 1.2800. The down parallel of the channel is acting as support.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.2930 1.2800 1.2700 1.2630 1.2500 1.2400
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USD/JPY Tests 145.00 for Breakout, Eyes Next Resistance at 148.30

The USD/JPY is testing the 145.00 level again for a breakout. The next resistance level is at 148.30, while the next support level is at 144.80.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
152.00 148.30 145.00 144.80 140.00 138.00

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Gold Outlook Shifts to Neutral with Resistance at 2050
Gold prices have been attempting to recover for the second day following a short-term bearish trend. However, the current outlook is somewhat neutral. In case the rebound persists, the next resistance level will be at 2050. Conversely, if the prices keep declining, the next support level is at 2006.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
2140 2090 2050 2032 2006 1979
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WTI Crude Oil Price Displays Unpredictable Unidirectional Swings
WTI crude oil price continues its volatile unidirectional movements, as the market is still divided on the direction oil prices will take next impacted by geopolitics tensions and slowing demand. The overall outlook remains uncertain due to unclear market fundamentals. The resistance area is currently between 74 and 76, while support can be found at 68. The trend is currently bearish.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
81 78 74 70 68 64.9
 

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zForex

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EUR/USD Holds Near Median Line with Data Uncertainty
The EUR/USD is hovering around the median line without a clear direction after yesterday's data. Today's PPI data may provide more direction. The next resistance level is at 1.1000, while the support level is close to 1.0850.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.1200 1.1100 1.1000 1.0900 1.0850 1.0750

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GBP/USD Approaches 1.2800 Resistance, Correction May Target 1.2630
The GBP/USD currency pair came close to the resistance level of 1.2800. Data from yesterday didn’t support a breakout or a correction as uncertainty continues. If prices break out, they may reach the next target of 1.2930. However, if there is a correction, prices may fall back to 1.2630.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.2930 1.2800 1.2700 1.2650 1.2500 1.2400

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USD/JPY Faces 50MA Resistance, Undergoes Slight Correction
The USD/JPY encountered resistance from the 50MA and is currently undergoing a slight correction. There is no confirmation yet of a clear direction for the pair, but the next support level is at 144.00. As the fundamentals decline, the yen may weaken further, while the direction of the pair will also depend on the dollar.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
155.00 152.00 148.30 145.00 144.80 140.00

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Gold Prices Rebound on Treasury Yield Dip, Decline May Test 2006 Support
Today, gold prices bounced back following a drop in the treasury yield. If the rebound is sustained, the next resistance level will be at 2050. However, if prices continue to fall, the next support level will be at 2006.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
2140 2090 2050 2032 2006 1979

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WTI Rises as 50MA Poses Temporary Challenge, Bearish Trend Prevails
WTI is moving up today following the geopolitical tension in the Middle East where the 50MA may be temporarily a challenge for the price. The resistance area is between 74 and 76, while support is at 68. The trend is currently bearish.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
81 78 74 70 68 64.9
 

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EUR/USD Uncertainty Continues, Eyes the 1.1000 Resistance Level
The EUR/USD continues to hover around the median line without a clear direction after last week's data. This week's data may give more direction for the pair. The next resistance level is at 1.1000, while the support level is close to 1.0850.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.1200 1.1100 1.1000 1.0900 1.0850 1.0750

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GBP/USD Still Unclear with Correction Possibility
The GBP/USD currency pair found resistance at 1.2800 the direction is still unclear while the market is still uncertain. If prices break out, they may reach the next target of 1.2930. However, if there is a correction, prices may fall back to 1.2630.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.2930 1.2800 1.2700 1.2650 1.2500 1.2400

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USD/JPY Pair Unclear as Fundamentals Deteriorate
The USD/JPY encountered resistance from the 50MA and is building a reversal in the short term. There is no confirmation yet of a clear direction for the pair, but the next support level is at 144.80. As the fundamentals deteriorate, the yen may weaken further, while the direction of the pair will also depend on the Dollar.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
155.00 152.00 148.30 144.80 144.00 142.00
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Gold; Safe Haven Amidst Geopolitical Tensions
Gold is benefiting from geopolitical tensions increasing the heaven gold appeal. If the trend continues the next target will be 2070, Conversely, if the prices come back declining, the next support level is in 2032.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
2140 2090 2070 2032 2006 1979

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Oil Prices Face a Challenge with 50MA, Trend Bearish
The 50-day moving average (50MA) poses a challenge for the price, as it could potentially lead to a reversal. Meanwhile, the path of the oil price remains uncertain. Currently, the resistance area is between 74 and 76, with support found at 68. The trend is currently bearish in an accumulation phase.
Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
81 78 74 70 68 64.9
 

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EUR/USD Declines, Eyes 200MA at 1.0850 with Dollar Strength
The EUR/USD is currently experiencing a decline, breaching the median line. Although the 50-day moving average (50MA) could serve as a transient support level, the focus is now on the 200-day moving average (200MA) with a target set at 1.0850. The main force driving this movement is the strength of the dollar.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.1200 1.1100 1.1000 1.0900 1.0850 1.0750

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GBP/USD Corrects to 1.2600, Eyes 50MA Support
The GBP/USD currency pair is correcting toward 1.2600 where the 50MA also is placed while the 1.2540 is the strong next support with the 200MA. The long bullish tends to remain strong and the correction can be temporary.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.2930 1.2800 1.2700 1.2600 1.2500 1.2400
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USD/JPY Gains Momentum, Approaches 147.40 Resistance
The USD/JPY is on an upward trajectory, supported by the resilience of the dollar and the yen's weakness. The pair is advancing towards the upcoming resistance, situated at both the upper parallel of the downtrend and the 100-day moving average at 147.40.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
155.00 152.00 147.40 145.00 144.80 140.00
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Gold Correction Following Strong Dollar and Rising Yields
Gold is currently influenced by the strength of the dollar and rising treasury yields, undergoing a correction from its recent level of 2056. While this correction may be temporary, the next support level is expected to be 2036, signaling a potential stabilization point for the precious metal.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
2140 2090 2070 2036 2006 1979

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Stable Oil Prices with Uncertain Fundamentals and Geopolitical Tensions

Over the last three days, oil prices have remained stable without showing any significant movements. The uncertain fundamentals of the oil market and the geopolitical tensions have made the market picture unclear and blurred. Currently, the resistance level is at 50MA, while the support level stands at 70.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
81 78 74 70 68 64.9
 

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EUR/USD Support at 1.0850, Key Data and Events Awaited
The EUR/USD is currently nearing the support level of 1.0850. Although a rebound from this support is possible, today's important data and events may impact its direction. If a breakout continues, then the next target would be 1.0800, while the next resistance level is at 1.0920.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.1100 1.1000 1.0920 1.0850 1.0800 1.0750

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GBP/USD Holds Firm at 1.2600 with Potential Direction to 1.2700
The GBP/USD found support at the 1.2600 at the 50MA. A rebound may lead the price to 1.2700, while a breakout below the 50MA could find support at 1.2540.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.2930 1.2800 1.2700 1.2600 1.2500 1.2400

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Yen Faces Continued Downward Pressure while USD/JPY Strengthens
The dollar has gained strength against the yen, with USD/JPY on the rise, aiming for the next target at 148.35. The yen's downward trajectory may persist, as current fundamentals do not favor the currency.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
152.00 150.00 148.35 146.50 144.80 144.00

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Gold Prices React to USD Strength and Yields, 50MA Support Crucial
Gold prices are currently being affected by the strength of the US dollar as well as rising treasury yields. Currently, it is at the 50MA support level and whether the correction will continue or not depends on today's economic calendar. If it continues to decline, the price is expected to drop towards the 2006 support level, while a comeback will push the price towards 2056 as the next target.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
2090 2070 2056 2021 2006 1979

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Oil Still Uncertain with Modest Movements, Support at 70
Oil lacks clear direction, displaying modest fluctuations following recent losses over the past two days. The next support stands at the 70 level, with an uncertain overall outlook and unpredictable market movements.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
81 78 74 70 68 64.9
 

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zForex

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EUR/USD Rebounds with Support at Key Levels
The EUR/USD has garnered support from both the 200MA and the 1.0850 level, currently showing signs of a rebound. The trajectory of this rebound may be influenced by today's data, potentially paving the way for either a sustained recovery or a breakout. The next support is at 1.0800 and the next resistance is at 1.0900.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.1100 1.1000 1.0900 1.0850 1.0800 1.0750

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GBP/USD Eyes the 1.2800 Level After Meeting Expectations
The GBP/USD discovered support at the 1.2600 level with 50MA. As anticipated, the rebound propelled the price back towards 1.2700. If this upward momentum persists, the next target stands at 1.2800.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Suport 3
1.3100 1.2930 1.2800 1.2600 1.2500 1.2400
1705571337210.png

USD/JPY Faces Resistance at 148.35, Eyes 146.50
The USD/JPY pair encountered resistance at 148.35, as predicted. The next support is at 146.50. If a breakout occurs, the next target is 150.00.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
152.00 150.00 148.35 146.50 144.80 144.00

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Gold Nears Support at 2006 with Yields and Dollar Pressure
Gold is currently trading at a support level of 2006. The recent rise in yields and the value of the dollar have had a negative impact on gold. However, gold will likely rebound from this support level. If gold does break out of this support level, the next target will be 1979.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
2070 2056 2021 2006 1979 1960

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Oil Displays Ambiguous Pattern, Next Resistance at 50MA
Oil is exhibiting an unclear pattern with low probability projections. The next support is at 70, while the resistance is at 50MA.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
81 78 74 70 68 64.9
 

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The EUR/USD Support Hovers Around 200MA
The EUR/USD continues hovering around the support at the 200MA and the 1.0850 and rebounding at the moment. The next support is at 1.0800 and the next resistance is at 1.0900.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.1100 1.1000 1.0900 1.0850 1.0800 1.0750

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GBP/USD Faces Selling Pressure Today
The GBP/USD rebounded after the 1.2600 support level, reaching the 50-day moving average (50MA). However, today the pair is experiencing selling pressure following the release of retail sales data. The next resistance if the rebound continues is at 1.2800 while the 50MA will be the next support.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.3100 1.2930 1.2800 1.2600 1.2500 1.2400

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USD/JPY Still Muted on the Second Day
The USD/JPY pair remained unchanged for the second day at the 148.35 resistance level. The next support is at 146.50. If a breakout occurs, the next target is 150.00.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
152.00 150.00 148.35 146.50 144.80 144.00

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Gold Rebounds as Bearish Trend Goes Down
Gold is rebounding after the 2006 played support and the next resistance level is at 2052 while the short-term bearish trend is forming a down channel.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
2070 2052 2021 2006 1979 1960

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Oil: A Possible Reversal?
Oil has broken the 50MA and is rebounding towards the next target at 78. The down-long trend indicates a possible reversal.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
81 78 74 70 68 64.9
 

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EUR/USD Hovers Around 200MA for the Fourth Session
The EUR/USD continues hovering for the fourth session around the support at the 200MA and the 1.0850 and rebounding at the moment. The next support is at 1.0800 and the next resistance is at 1.0900.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.1100 1.1000 1.0900 1.0850 1.0800 1.0750

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GBP/USD Silently Awaits the Week’s Data
The GBP/USD is quiet today. The next move will depend on this week's data and market sentiment. The next resistance if the rebound continues is at 1.2800 while the 50MA will be the next support.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.3100 1.2930 1.2800 1.2600 1.2500 1.2400

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USD/JPY Muted at the 148.35 Resistance
The pair continued for their third day, muted at the 148.35 resistance level. The next support is at 146.50. If a breakout occurs, the next target is 150.00.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
152.00 150.00 148.35 146.50 144.80 144.00
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Gold Resists at 200MA, Eyes 2006
Gold found resistance at the 200MA on a 4H chart and came back where the short-term bearish trend is still active. If it continues its downward trajectory, the next level is again will be at 2006.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
2070 2052 2021 2006 1979 1960


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Uncertainty Continues for Oil at 50MA
Geopolitical tensions continue to impact oil prices, leaving future projections uncertain. The 50MA still holds as resistance.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
81 78 74 70 68 64.9
 

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EUR/USD Maintains Position Near 200MA Support at 1.0850
EUR/USD, rebounding currently, continues hovering around the support at the 200MA again with the 1.0850 level. The next support is at 1.0800 and the next resistance is at 1.0900.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.1100 1.1000 1.0900 1.0850 1.0800 1.0750

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Pound Sterling Gains Momentum with Slight Restraint
The GBP/USD is increasing today but is slightly limited. The next move will depend on this week's economic data and market sentiment. The next resistance level is at 1.2800 while the 50MA will act as the next support if the rebound continues.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.3100 1.2930 1.2800 1.2600 1.2500 1.2400

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USD/JPY Retreats from 148.35 Resistance Post-BoJ Meeting
The USD/JPY pair came back from the resistance at 148.35 after today's BoJ meeting. The next support is at 146.50 and if a breakout occurs, the next target is 150.00.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
152.00 150.00 148.35 146.50 144.80 144.00
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Gold Faces Resistance at 200MA, Extends Short-Term Bearish Trend
Gold continued finding resistance at the 200MA on a 4H chart and came back where the short-term bearish trend is still active. The next level will be at 2006 again if it continues its downward course.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
2070 2052 2021 2006 1979 1960

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Geopolitical Tensions Increases Volatility in Oil Prices
Geopolitical tensions create volatility in oil prices again, leaving future projections uncertain. The 50MA seems still holding as resistance.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
81 78 74 70 68 64.9
 

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EUR/USD Holds Steady at 200MA Support, Awaits Data for Next Move
The EUR/USD pair maintains its position near the 200MA support at 1.0850, in a holding pattern as it awaits today's data developments to determine its next direction. The next support is at the 1.0800 level, with resistance at 1.0900 on the horizon.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.1100 1.1000 1.0900 1.0850 1.0800 1.0750

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GBP/USD Sees Incremental Gains Today with Some Constraints
GBP/USD experienced gains today but faces mild constraints, with the upcoming move dependent on today's economic data and market sentiment. Although the current pattern somewhat resembles a descending triangle, the likelihood remains low. If the rebound persists, the next resistance is at 1.2800, with the 50MA serving as the next support.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.3100 1.2930 1.2800 1.2600 1.2500 1.2400

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USD/JPY Eyes 146.50 Support with Yen Strength Limited
The uncertainty persists for the USD/JPY pair near the 148.35 resistance following the recent BoJ meeting, with the Yen displaying limited strength. The next support lies at 146.50, and in the event of a breakout, the next resistance is set at 150.00.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
152.00 150.00 148.35 146.50 144.80 144.00
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Gold Maintains Short-Term Bearish Trend Following Market Uncertainty

Uncertainty in the market is affecting gold, keeping it in proximity to both the 50MA and the 200MA on a 4-hour chart. The short-term bearish trend is still active. If it continues down the next levels again at the 2006.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
2070 2052 2021 2006 1979 1960

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Oil Influenced by Ongoing Tensions, Remains Muted

Oil remains in a state of uncertainty, exhibiting volatile movements with no clear direction established, influenced by economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The next resistance looms near 78, closely tied to the 200MA, while support rests at 70.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
81 78 74 70 68 64.9
 

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EUR/USD Volatility Follows PMI Data
The EUR/USD had strong volatility yesterday after PMI data while still hovering around the support at the 200MA and the 1.0850, waiting for today's GDP data for direction. The next support is at the 1.0800 level and the next resistance is at 1.0900.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.1100 1.1000 1.0900 1.0850 1.0800 1.0750

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GBP/USD Stalls in Price Range with Growing Uncertainty
The GBP/USD is experiencing range-bound movements due to increasing uncertainty at the start of the new year. The next resistance if the rebound continues is at 1.2800 while the 50MA will be the next support.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.3100 1.2930 1.2800 1.2600 1.2500 1.2400

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USD/JPY Dependent on Dollar Movements
The USD/JPY pair is making some corrections but limited as it will depend on US dollar movements for today. The next support is at 146.50. If a breakout occurs, the next target is 150.00.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
152.00 150.00 148.35 146.50 144.80 144.00

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Gold Slips Following US PMI Data
Gold is falling today after yesterday's US PMI data where markets believe US economic resilience and rates will be held for longer. The short-term bearish trend is still active. If it continues to decrease, the next level will be at 2006 again.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
2070 2052 2021 2006 1979 1960

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Crude Oil Initiates Reversal, Next Resistance at 78
Recent market trends indicate a potential reversal in oil prices, with the commodity poised for an upward movement. The next significant resistance level stands near the 200-day moving average, hovering around 78 and the support level remains steady at 70.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
81 78 74 70 68 64.9
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Dollar Maintains Steady Position Near Six-Week Peak, Eyes on ECB and BoE Policies

On Thursday, the dollar maintained a steady position, close to a six-week peak, as investors waited for key economic data, including the first reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter which is expected to reveal a 2% annualized growth. Recent data showed powerful US business activity in January, with expansions in both services and manufacturing sectors.
Attention is also focused on the European Central Bank (ECB), with markets predicting it will maintain its current high interest rates at its January meeting. ECB President Lagarde hinted at a potential rate cut during the summer of 2024, highlighting a data-dependent approach. The market currently estimates a 60% likelihood of an initial rate reduction as soon as April.
The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to maintain current rates on February 1 and begin reducing rates in August. This anticipation follows a significant drop in inflation, which peaked at 11.1% in October 2022, the highest in 40 years. The Pound Sterling initially gained support from positive Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the UK but lost momentum following strong PMI results from the US.
In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) acknowledged the alignment of conditions for phasing out stimulus and negative interest rates. The head of Japan's largest business lobby, Keidanren, advocated for wage increases above the inflation rate, suggesting a shift in the BoJ's monetary policy. Despite geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is expected to avoid significant losses.
The Yuan remained stable after an announcement by China's central bank on Wednesday. The bank made a significant cut to bank reserves that will add approximately $140 billion of cash into the banking system. This move is a strong indication of support for the economy, which is currently fragile.
Gold prices lingered near a one-week low, affected by the stronger US dollar and higher bond yields after the US reported strong business activity. Investors are expecting further US GDP data and the ECB's policy meeting outcomes. Gold reached its lowest point in nearly a week following data indicating a strong start to the US economy in 2024.
Lastly, oil prices increased after reports showed a greater-than-expected decline in US crude stockpiles. Additionally, the Chinese central bank's reduction of banks' reserve ratios supported hopes for further stimulus measures and economic recovery.
 

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Global Financial Markets Respond to Central Bank Moves with Inflation and Policy Shifts

On Tuesday, the dollar index remained steady reaching its highest position in nearly two weeks. This stability is attributed to investors reevaluating their expectations for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influenced by strong US inflation figures. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates this week, with market attention turning to indications of the timing and magnitude of a potential easing cycle later in the year.

At its March meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged, with officials signaling improvements in inflation control and initiating discussions on the timeline for rate reductions. ECB member Pablo Hernandez de Cos mentioned the possibility of starting to reduce interest rates in June, contingent on a continued decline in Eurozone inflation. Fellow Governing Council member Klaas Knot also targeted June for an initial rate cut, forecasting a total of three reductions within the year.

Market focus is also set on the upcoming German and Eurozone ZEW Survey, expected later on Tuesday. In the United Kingdom, signs of moderating inflation are emerging, though the Bank of England (BoE) remains cautious, awaiting inflation's return to the 2% target before altering rates. It is anticipated that the BoE will maintain its interest rate at 5.25% in Thursday's meeting, with investors keenly awaiting the release of consumer and producer price data on Wednesday.

Recent Consumer Inflation Expectations in the UK, showing a slight decrease from 3.3% to 3.0%, sparked speculation about a potential BoE rate cut, with predictions pointing towards August for the commencement of rate reductions.

In Japan, the yen experienced a significant drop following the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to conclude its negative interest rate policy, marking an end to eight years of this approach and signaling a departure from prolonged monetary stimulus measures.

Gold prices hovered around $2,160 on Tuesday, as investors hesitated to make substantial moves ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision. Despite expectations for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, recent strong inflation data has led traders to reconsider bets on a rate cut in June.

Lastly, recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have the potential to increase Russia's crude oil exports. This development has encouraged bullish traders to secure profits after a significant rally in oil prices, cautioning against short-term market overextensions.
 

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Global Central Banks Signal Rate Cuts, Dollar Weakens as Gold and Oil Rise

The dollar index experienced a decline, approaching 103 on Thursday, which marked a continuation of its downward trajectory from the prior session, reaching lows not seen in a week. This movement was influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain its forecast for three interest rate cuts within the year, despite leaving rates unchanged in March, a move that met widespread expectations. The central bank also adjusted its outlook slightly, indicating one fewer cut in 2025. Chairman Powell, during a regular press conference, emphasized that inflation data from January and February did not change the overall narrative surrounding inflation. He restated the need for policymakers to gain more confidence that inflation is consistently moving towards a 2% target before making any future policy adjustments, which will be guided by economic data.

In Europe, Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), highlighted on Wednesday that the decision to cut interest rates would be deliberated in the June meeting. This consideration will be based on data available by June, which is expected to provide clearer insights into inflation trends and the state of the labor market. The anticipation in the money markets is for the ECB to implement three rate cuts by the end of the year, with a potential fourth cut being speculated, according to reports by Reuters.

Key economic indicators to be released include the HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Germany and the Eurozone on Thursday, along with the German Buba Monthly Report. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) is anticipated to maintain its policy rate for the fifth consecutive meeting on Thursday. This comes amid increasing speculation about potential interest rate cuts, with recent data suggesting a hastening in the pace of disinflation in the UK in February, which could lead to an earlier start to interest rate reductions.

Inflation metrics in the UK indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% year-over-year in February, with the Core CPI (excluding food and energy costs) increasing by 4.5%. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) earlier this week signaled its intention to keep financial conditions accommodative, without providing specific guidance on future policy directions or normalization pace. This stance, combined with a general risk-on sentiment, contributed to a decline in demand for the traditionally safe-haven Japanese Yen.

Gold prices reached new highs following the Fed's reaffirmation of its interest rate cut outlook for the year, with the metal's appeal inversely related to interest rates. Gold's value surged past the $2,200 mark as bond yields decreased. Additionally, oil prices rebounded on Thursday, supported by a notable drawdown in US crude and gasoline stocks, despite indicators that the Federal Reserve might maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Inventory levels unexpectedly fell by 2 million barrels to 445 million barrels for the week ending March 15, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 13,000-barrel increase, based on a Reuters poll.
 

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Dollar Dominance Continues Amid Global Rate Shifts: A Week in Review

The U.S. dollar was set for a second week of broad gains on Friday, with even a rate hike in Japan unable to halt its march, and a surprise cut in Switzerland highlighting the gap between the Federal Reserve and global peers in interest rate settings.

Euro faced downward pressure on the latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey by HCOB on Thursday revealing that the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for March was 45.7, lower than the previous reading of 46.5, and below the consensus forecast of 47.0. However, the Services PMI improved to 51.1 in March from 50.2 in February, surpassing the estimated 50.5. The Eurozone PMI Composite rose to 49.9 in March, compared to the expected 49.7 and the previous reading of 46.3.

UK Retail Sales (Month-on-Month) for February showed no growth, printing a reading of 0.0%, compared to the expected decline of 0.3% and the 3.4% growth recorded in January. However, Core Retail Sales, which exclude auto and motor fuel sales, increased by 0.2% month-on-month, surpassing expectations of a 0.1% decline and maintaining the 3.2% growth seen in January.

BOE Governor Andrew Bailey has reiterated that rate cuts this year are within reason, stressing that all meetings are subject to consideration, with decisions made anew each time. He emphasized the importance of having confidence in the direction of wage growth and stated that waiting for inflation to drop to 2% before contemplating rate cuts is unnecessary. Bailey also expressed optimism about recent economic developments, viewing them as positive news.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) stages a modest recovery. Data released earlier today showed that consumer inflation in Japan remains above the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% target. Moreover, most Japanese firms have agreed to the trade unions' wage rise demands, which is expected to push up inflation in the coming months. This, in turn, supports prospects for further policy tightening by the BoJ and lends some support to the JPY.

The BoJ, however, indicated earlier this week that financial conditions will remain accommodative and fell short of offering any guidance about the pace of policy normalization.

Gold fell toward $2,170 an ounce on Friday, extending losses form the previous session as the dollar strengthened on bets that other major central banks could start cutting interest rates earlier than the Federal Reserve.

WTI crude futures fell to around $80.5 per barrel on Friday, sliding for the third straight session as the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza, which could allay supply concerns, weighed on oil prices.
 

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Central Banks' Interest Rate Paths and Market Implications Amidst Mixed Signals



Against a backdrop of optimism for US economic growth, the USD Index (DXY) faces difficulty attracting buyers amidst mixed signals concerning the Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance on interest rate cuts. Despite the Fed's announcement last week of its plan to reduce interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) this year, concerns about persistent inflation and stronger-than-expected US macroeconomic data have been raised by several Fed officials. Attention is particularly focused on the upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, set for Friday. Investors are also anticipating other key economic reports, including Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index.

In Europe, Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta indicated that the European Central Bank (ECB) is poised to cut interest rates as inflation trends towards the 2% target. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane also mentioned the possibility of interest rate reversals, pending a slowdown in wage growth and a return to the 2% inflation target. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey signaled that interest rate reductions this year are a reasonable expectation, following a shift in stance by two BoE policymakers towards maintaining the current borrowing cost at 5.25%, which may impact the British Pound (GBP).

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has seen a slight increase, supported by speculation of market intervention by Japanese authorities and ongoing geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, enhancing its safe-haven appeal. However, gains are limited due to uncertainties surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy direction and the general bullish sentiment in equity markets, which could restrain the JPY's advance. Conversely, the USD faces downward pressure due to the Fed's anticipated shift towards a less restrictive monetary policy.

In commodities, gold prices have stabilized, with investors awaiting the US PCE price index report for further direction. Oil prices remained stable after a previous session increase, with the market adopting a mixed perspective on the impact of lost Russian refinery capacity due to Ukrainian attacks, though a slightly weaker USD provided some support.
 

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EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 05.28.2024


EUR/USD Gains Momentum, Approaching Key Resistance Levels​

The EUR/USD currency pair has gained momentum after breaking the short-term intraday downtrend, reaching the daily downtrend resistance. To sustain this upward movement, the pair needs to surpass the 1.0880-1.0900 range. If it successfully breaks and maintains above this range, the next resistance levels to watch are 1.0950-1.0960 and 1.1000. However, if the pair encounters selling pressure, the first support level is at 1.0860. Below this, the 1.0830-1.0835 range is crucial, and a break below it could push the price down to test the 1.0800-1.0810 range.

Resistance 3Resistance 2Resistance 1Support 1Support 2Support 3
1.10001.09501.08801.08601.08301.0800

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USD/JPY Analysis By zForex Research Team - 05.28.2024


USD/JPY Shows Modest Upward Movement Amid Core Inflation Data​

The USD/JPY pair, maintaining its muted momentum, saw an upward move of approximately 20 pips after core inflation fell below expectations. If this upward trend continues and the pair breaks above 157.00, it would indicate the short-term downtrend has been broken. The next levels to monitor would be 157.50 and 158.00. Conversely, if the pair moves downward, the first support zone to watch is the 156.50-156.40 range. A breach below this range would highlight 156.00 and 155.00 as subsequent support levels.

Resistance 3Resistance 2Resistance 1Support 1Support 2Support 3
158.00157.50157.00156.40156.00155.00

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GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 05.28.2024


GBP/USD Tests Resistance at 1.2780-1.2800​

In the past two days, the GBP/USD currency pair has gained momentum and approached the resistance level on the daily chart. The 1.2780-1.2800 range stands out as the key resistance zone. If this zone is breached and sustained above, the next resistance levels to monitor are 1.2850-1.2860 and then 1.2900. However, if profit-taking occurs, the first support level to watch is 1.2740. Should this level be breached, the subsequent support levels are 1.2700 and 1.2670.

Resistance 3Resistance 2Resistance 1Support 1Support 2Support 3
1.29001.28601.28001.27401.27001.2670

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USD/Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 05.30.2024

Dollar Steady Above 105; Yen Strengthens as Asia-Pacific Markets Fall​

On Thursday, the dollar index maintained levels above 105 after registering a 0.5% increase in the prior session. This increase was driven by rising Treasury yields due to weak demand at a bond auction and expectations of prolonged high US interest rates. Recent comments from a Federal Reserve official hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes in response to potential inflationary pressures. Additionally, May's unexpected improvement in US consumer confidence added to the sentiment. The market focus now shifts to revised US GDP figures scheduled for Thursday and the US PCE price index report set for release on Friday. Forecasts now suggest December as the potential start of the easing cycle, marking a significant shift from earlier projections of a September rate cut. Following that, the dollar reached its highest levels in two weeks against a basket of major currencies.

Gold approached the $2,330 per ounce mark, marking a further decline. Fed Atlanta President Bostic's remarks on Wednesday, highlighting uncertainties regarding achieving 2% inflation and the significance of price increases, added to the sentiment. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari's statement on delaying rate cuts until inflation improves and not ruling out rate hikes if inflation stays high further impacted market sentiment. The initial jobless claims data for the week ending May 25 will also provide insights into the central bank's policy outlook.

On Thursday, Asia-Pacific markets continued their decline, mirroring the performance of Wall Street, as investors braced for a barrage of economic indicators scheduled for release from the region on Friday. Japan's Nikkei 225 experienced a decline of approximately 1.6%, while the Topix index fell by 0.8%. Similarly, South Korea's Kospi dropped by 0.72%, with the smaller cap Kosdaq slipping by 0.3%. Industrial production figures from Japan and South Korea are slated for release on Friday, along with China's official purchasing managers index for May. Additionally, inflation data for Tokyo will also be disclosed.

The Japanese yen strengthened beyond 157 per dollar, rebounding from four-week lows as a sell-off in risky assets led investors to seek it as a safe haven. Rising domestic yields also provided support to the yen, with Japan's 10-year benchmark yield hitting 1.1% this week, marking its highest level since July 2011. Earlier comments from BoJ member Seiji Adachi hinted that the central bank might consider raising interest rates if significant declines in the yen lead to increased inflation. Market participants are now focused on Tokyo's inflation data on Friday, considered a leading indicator of nationwide price trends. However, the yen continued to face pressure from a robust dollar and Treasury yields with growing expectations of prolonged higher US interest rates.

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EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 05.30.2024

EUR/USD Drops to 1.0800 on High Rate Expectations​

Yesterday, the expectation that interest rates would remain elevated for some time yields led to a strong close on 10-year government bonds, which devaluated the EUR/USD currency pair. With the expected breach of 1.0835, the pair saw the 1.0800 level. The initial support expected for today stands at the 200-day moving average level of 1.0780. If this level is breached with momentum from news flow, the focus may shift to the 1.0750-1.0760 range, followed by the 1.0710 level. However, in an upward reversal, the 1.0815 level will pose as resistance. If this level is broken with momentum, the subsequent levels to watch are the 1.0830-1.0835 range and the 1.0860 level.

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Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 05.30.2024

Gold Retests Support at 2320-2325 with Dollar Strength​

With the strengthening of the dollar, the yellow metal retested the major support level around the 2320-2325 range. If this range is breached, the first level to monitor would be the 2308-2300 range. If this level is also broken, the 2280 major support level may come into play. However, in the event of positive news flow from the United States, prompting an upward movement in prices, the first major resistance above 2355 would be the 2370-2375 range. The third level to watch above this range would be 2395.

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Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.04.2024

US Economic Data Drives Dollar and Gold Movements​

On Tuesday, the dollar index remained steady at around 104, marking its lowest level in almost two months. This drop was fueled by indications of economic weakness in the US, bolstering expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Despite forecasts for a slight improvement, data released on Monday revealed a further contraction in US manufacturing activity in May. Consequently, market sentiment shifted, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in September rising to approximately 52%, compared to about 42% on Friday. Investors are now eagerly awaiting key economic reports scheduled for later this week, including the ISM Services PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, and the highly anticipated monthly jobs report, for additional guidance. Additionally, markets are anticipating the European Central Bank's policy decision on Thursday, with expectations leaning toward rate reductions. While the dollar remained at multi-month lows against most major currencies, it only experienced modest declines against the Australian dollar and Japanese yen, trading at two-week lows.

Gold prices remained steady at around $2,348 per ounce, following gains in the previous session, supported by increasing expectations of relaxed monetary policies from major central banks. Monday's data revealed a second consecutive slowdown in US manufacturing activity in May, alongside an unexpected decline in construction spending for April, primarily driven by drops in non-residential activity. These developments fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve has the flexibility to implement rate cuts later this year. Currently, traders are estimating a 52% likelihood of a rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Simultaneously, the European Central Bank is anticipated to lower interest rates this week, with similar expectations for easing policies from the Bank of Canada and the People's Bank of China. Investors are now awaiting Wednesday's ADP employment report and Friday's non-farm payrolls data to gauge the health of the US economy and its potential impact on the Fed's policy trajectory.

On Tuesday, WTI crude futures dropped below $74 per barrel, marking their fifth consecutive decline to the lowest level in four months amidst concerns about a potential increase in global supply later in the year. OPEC+ reached an agreement on Sunday to extend most of their supply cuts into 2025 but introduced the possibility of gradual unwinding of voluntary cuts from eight member countries starting in October. It is anticipated that over 500,000 barrels per day will re-enter the market by December, with a total of 1.8 million barrels per day returning by June 2025. Additionally, signs of economic weakness in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, added pressure to oil prices after US manufacturing activity continued to contract in May. Furthermore, recent fears that the US Federal Reserve may refrain from cutting interest rates this year have further weighed on oil markets, potentially slowing economic growth and reducing oil demand.
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EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.04.2024

EUR/USD Starts Day Above 1.0900 Following Rally​

After yesterday's rally, the pair started the day above the 1.0900 level. The initial resistance stands at 1.0940, and a breakthrough above this level may lead to further resistance levels at 1.0960 and 1.1000. However, in case of a downward movement, support levels are seen at 1.0880, 1.0840, and 1.0810 respectively.

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Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.04.2024

Gold's Upward Movement Tests Resistance at 2358​

After ending yesterday's session with an increase, gold's first resistance level is at 2358. Above this level, resistance is observed in the range between 2365 and 2375, with 2395 being the subsequent resistance level. On the downside, the initial support is at 2334, followed by additional support levels at 2321 and 2307.

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Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.06.2024

Market Outlook: Potential Upward Inflation Pressures Identified by Bank of Japan​

The Bank of Japan highlighted potential upward pressures on inflation and signaled its readiness to adjust monetary policy while anticipating continued accommodative financial conditions, as outlined in a summary of its April policy meeting. The central bank emphasized the need to monitor various inflationary factors, including faster progress in the wage-price spiral, further depreciation of the yen, active fiscal policy, constraints in supply capacity primarily due to labor shortages, and increases in commodity prices. Additionally, the BOJ acknowledged that achieving the outlook for economic activity and price increases might necessitate interest rate hikes. It identified key indicators for potential policy adjustments, such as positive corporate behavior throughout the summer and an improving consumption trend. In another context, a Ministry of Finance representative expressed concerns about sluggish consumption momentum and urged the BOJ to collaborate closely with the government to attain sustainable 2% inflation.

On Thursday, the dollar index approached 104, nearing its lowest point in two months, as indications of weakness in the US labor market revived expectations for two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year, with the initial cut anticipated in September. The ADP report revealed that private sector job additions fell short of expectations, further suggesting a softening labor market. However, ISM data indicated that US services sector activity expanded the most in nine months in May, surpassing market projections. Investors are eagerly awaiting Friday's monthly jobs report for deeper insights into the economy and potential monetary policy directions. Additionally, markets prepared for an anticipated rate reduction from the European Central Bank, marking its first such action since 2019. The dollar experienced broad weakening, notably against the Australian dollar and Japanese yen, with significant selling activity observed.

On Thursday, gold surged above $2,370 per ounce, extending its upward momentum from the previous session, buoyed by recent US economic data bolstering expectations of potential Fed rate cuts this year. ADP data revealed that US private payrolls increased less than forecasted in May, with downward revisions to the previous month's figures, indicating a softening yet resilient labor market. With speculation mounting for two rate cuts by the Fed in 2024, investors are currently pricing in a 70% likelihood of a cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders are eagerly awaiting Friday's non-farm payrolls data to gauge the health of the US economy and glean insights into the Fed's possible rate-cut timeline. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada made its first policy rate reduction in four years on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank is anticipated to follow suit later today.
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EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.06.2024

EUR/USD Shows Positive Bias Ahead of Interest Rate Decision​

Despite closing lower yesterday, the EUR/USD pair is currently showing a positive bias ahead of the interest rate decision today. The initial resistance stands at 1.0900, with 1.0940 and 1.0960 as subsequent levels to monitor above this point. On the downside, support levels to watch are 1.0865, 1.0835, and 1.0815, respectively.

Resistance 3Resistance 2Resistance 1Support 1Support 2Support 3
1.09601.09401.09001.08651.08351.0815

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Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.06.2024

Gold Ends Session Higher, Faces Resistance at 2375​

Gold, which concluded yesterday with an upward rally, has resistance levels at 2375, 2395, and 2405, respectively. The initial support is at 2355, followed by 2340 and 2330 as subsequent support levels to monitor.

Resistance 3Resistance 2Resistance 1Support 1Support 2Support 3
240523952375235523402330

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Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.11.2024

Dollar Soars on Strong Jobs Data, Investors Eye Central Bank Decisions​

On Tuesday, the dollar index maintained its position above 105, having reached a four-week peak in the previous session. Investors were gearing up for significant events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the release of the CPI report later this week. Following strong US job data last Friday, where the economy added 272,000 jobs in May, the index surged by 0.8%. With the revised April figures at 165,000 and an expected 185,000 jobs, this significant increase led to a revision in market expectations, now projecting only one rate reduction from the Fed this year, likely in November. On Monday, the dollar reached a one-month high against the euro due to the rise of far-right parties in the European Parliament elections, adding to political uncertainty in the region. It also hit a one-week high against the yen ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting this week. While the BoJ plans to maintain current rates, they will discuss reducing monthly bond purchases.

Gold prices dipped close to $2,300 per ounce, lingering near one-month lows. Market participants are observing for signals regarding the timing of potential rate adjustments by the Fed, particularly following the strong payroll report released last Friday. Expectations for a Fed easing this year have been tempered, with investors now estimating a 50% likelihood of a rate cut in September. Additionally, China's central bank, a significant purchaser of gold in the official sector, paused its buying streak in May after 18 months of acquisitions. In Europe, political uncertainty escalated as the far-right secured gains in the European Parliament elections, prompting French President Macron to announce a surprise snap legislative ballot.

On Tuesday, WTI crude futures hovered around $78 per barrel, maintaining their position after surging nearly 3% in the previous session. There's speculation that the US government may speed up the replenishment of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by purchasing oil at approximately $79 per barrel. The US jobs data released last Friday raised concerns that the Fed might prolong higher interest rates, potentially impacting the market adversely. Market attention is now focused on the US crude inventory data from the API scheduled for Tuesday and the EIA report due on Wednesday, which could offer further insights into the oil market's fundamentals. Monthly market reports from the EIA, OPEC, and IEA will also be released this week, adding to the market's caution and influencing trading sentiment.
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Euro Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.11.2024

Euro Rebounds After Weekly Slump​

The EUR/USD pair is attempting to recover after a significant decline earlier this week. The key challenge to overcome is the initial resistance level of 1.0780. If breached and held, further resistance lies at 1.0800 and 1.0850. Conversely, if the pair dips further, the first support level to watch sits at 1.0750. Should that break, attention will shift to 1.0700 and 1.0660 as the next potential support zones.

Resistance 3Resistance 2Resistance 1Support 1Support 2Support 3
1.08501.08001.07801.07501.07001.0660

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Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 06.11.2024

Gold Stabilizes After $100 Drop​

Following a nearly $100 decrease, gold traded calmly on Monday. The initial resistance level gold may face is at 2320. Above this level, 2330 and 2355 are subsequent important levels to watch. Conversely, on the downside, the first level likely to support the price is 2280. If this level is breached and selling pressure intensifies, 2265 and 2245 will become notable support levels to monitor, respectively.

Resistance 3Resistance 2Resistance 1Support 1Support 2Support 3
235523302320228022652245

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