Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Gold Reclaims $5,000 Milestone​

Gold surged back above $5,000 on Friday, erasing most of the previous session’s $160 drop. This recovery was fueled by softer U.S. inflation data, which lowered bond yields and boosted hopes for an earlier Federal Reserve rate cut. Lower yields increase the appeal of non-yielding assets like bullion. However, near-term gains may be limited as China, which is a primary market driver, remains on holiday until February 23. This seasonal pause in Chinese demand often results in thinner trading volume and could cap significant upward moves until full participation returns.

Key Technical Levels

• Resistance: $5,140, A breakout here could trigger a new bullish leg.
• Psychological Level: $5,000, A vital short-term level for market sentiment.
• Support: $4,860, A critical floor to prevent deeper corrections.
• Below $4,860: The risk of a more significant price retreat intensifies.

Post automatically merged: Feb 16, 2026

Brent Faces $70 Resistance​

Brent crude is trading near $68 as markets focus on Tuesday’s U.S.-Iran talks. Geopolitical headlines remain the primary price driver, as any escalation could disrupt global supply. However, upside momentum stays capped below $70 due to comfortable inventory levels and signs that some OPEC+ members may increase production starting in April.

Investors are also looking toward the March 1 OPEC+ meeting for clarity on future output policy, which could heighten downward pressure if a supply increase is confirmed.

Key Levels to Watch

• Resistance: $70 | A major psychological and technical barrier.
• Short-term Pivot: $68 | The current market balance zone.
• Support: $65 | Initial downside target; a break lower risks a deeper correction.
• Below $65: Could trigger a deeper correction toward lower demand zones

Post automatically merged: Feb 16, 2026

Bitcoin Pressured Below $76K​

Crypto markets remain on the defensive. Bitcoin trades near $68,000, while Ethereum holds around $1,960, with Solana and XRP also edging lower. The structure suggests consolidation rather than panic, yet upside momentum is limited.

Technically, $76,000 remains the decisive level. As long as Bitcoin stays below it, downside pressure is likely to persist. The first key support stands at $60,000. A failure there would shift focus toward $50,000 as the next medium-term target.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: $76,000 – Trend recovery threshold
• Current zone: $68,000 – Ongoing pressure
• Support 1: $60,000 – Major retest level
• Support 2: $50,000 – Next downside objective

A sustained move above $76,000 would ease pressure; until then, risks remain tilted lower.

Post automatically merged: Feb 16, 2026

Gold/Silver Ratio Hits 65​

The Gold/Silver ratio has climbed back to 65, marking a significant recovery from its long-term base in the 43–45 zone. This reversal suggests gold is regaining relative strength as investors favor safe-haven assets amid rising market caution. Silver, which outperformed earlier in 2026, is now seeing its lead diminish.

As long as the ratio remains above 55, the structural advantage remains with gold. A sustained breakout above 65 would likely confirm a broader upward phase for the ratio.

Key Levels to Watch

• Resistance: 65 | Immediate barrier; a break here could extend the trend.
• Next Target: 70 | The medium-term upside objective.
• Support: 55 | Initial floor to watch on any pullbacks.
• Major Base: 43–45 | Critical long-term support and reversal zone.

 

[zForex]

Markets Keep Cautious in Thin Trade (02.17.2026)​

Global markets opened cautiously in thin trading, with the euro holding near $1.185 after the ECB signaled comfort with its strength, sterling steady around $1.36 ahead of key UK data, and the yen firming toward 153 on BoJ rate-hike speculation.

Precious metals weakened as gold slipped below $4,970 and silver fell over 2% amid subdued liquidity and fading speculative momentum, leaving markets focused on central bank signals and upcoming inflation data.

Equities remained relatively steady, with the US 100 Tech Index near 24,600 and maintaining solid annual gains, while Bitcoin stayed volatile under pressure.

Technical Outlook on Charts
Euro Holds Near Four-Year High
Yen Gains on Hike Hopes
Gold Slips in Thin Trading
Sterling Struggles Amid Weak Growth
Silver Extends Downturn Below $76

Economic Calendar

 

[zForex]

Short interest jumps in credit ETFs as Big Tech debt grows​

Big tech companies have borrowed heavily in recent months. Firms like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle issued about $125 billion in new debt. This is making investors more cautious.

Short positions in corporate bond ETFs are rising fast. Even investment-grade funds are seeing unusual bearish bets. This suggests investors are starting to hedge credit risk more actively.

The concern is simple. More debt, higher refinancing costs, and uncertainty around growth. Tech companies are still strong, but markets are watching credit risk much more closely now.

 

[zForex]

Gold Rebounds as FX Holds Range (02.18.2026)​

Markets traded with a mixed tone as currencies and metals reacted to central bank signals and fresh data.

The euro held firm near $1.185, supported by the ECB’s comfort with currency strength and confidence that inflation is on track, alongside expectations of a less dovish policy mix later this year. The Japanese yen eased despite a sharp jump in exports, as traders balanced strong trade momentum against broader policy normalization expectations. Sterling slid to a two-week low after weak wage growth and rising unemployment strengthened the case for Bank of England rate cuts

Gold rebounded toward $4,900 on dip-buying, with investors weighing mixed Federal Reserve commentary ahead of key US data and FOMC minutes. Meanwhile, silver snapped a short losing streak as buyers returned, supported by expectations of eventual Fed easing and ahead of upcoming US growth and inflation releases.

Brent trades just above $67 per barrel, stabilizing as developments in US–Iran nuclear discussions remain in focus. Iranian officials referenced a broad framework agreement, while US representatives indicated talks will resume in Geneva within two weeks with an updated proposal.

Nasdaq stands at 24,706, down 0.13% on the day. It is lower by 1.13% over the past month but maintains an 11.41% gain year over year. Forecast models suggest 23,966 by quarter-end and 21,806 within a year.

The offshore yuan (USDCNH) strengthens to approximately 6.89 per dollar, reaching its highest level in 34 months as mainland trading pauses for the Lunar New Year.

Technical Outlook on Charts
ECB Stance Keeps Euro Firm
Yen Eases Despite Export Surge
Gold Recovers Toward $4,900
Sterling Hits Two-Week Low
Silver Gains on Dip-Buying

Economic Calendar

 

[zForex]

CB Signals Keep Markets on Edge (02.19.2026)​

Markets traded cautiously as leadership uncertainty at the European Central Bank and firm US data shaped price action across assets.

The upcoming CPI release is expected to influence expectations around the Federal Reserve’s rate path, especially after meeting minutes showed further hikes remain possible if inflation stays above target.

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.89 per dollar, its firmest level in nearly three years. The IMF urged China to prioritize a shift toward consumption-led growth, highlighting the need for structural reform as global conditions evolve.

The euro eased toward $1.18 after reports suggested ECB President Christine Lagarde may step down earlier than the expectations. This added a political layer to the policy outlook. The Japanese yen steadied near recent lows as strong US economic momentum and hawkish Fed signals continued to favor the dollar. Sterling weakened after UK inflation slowed to 3.0%, reinforcing expectations of Bank of England easing.

Gold rebounded and moved back above the key $5,000 psychological level as investors continued to assess the divided FOMC minutes and the outlook for future rate cuts. Holding above this threshold suggests that bullish momentum remains intact for now, with buyers regaining short-term control. Silver extended its rebound toward $78, supported by broader strength across precious metals, even as the firm dollar continues to limit the pace of gains.

Oil recorded its strongest daily gain since October on reports that potential US military action against Iran could come sooner than expected. Fresh US sanctions on 18 Iranian officials added to regional tensions and supported energy prices.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Dips on Lagarde Exit Rumors
Yen Steady After Sharp Drop
Gold Edges Lower Post-Fed Minutes
Pound Dips as Inflation Hits 3.0%
Silver Gains Toward $78

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Dollar Gains on Hawkish Fed (02.20.2026)​

The dollar index rose toward 98, set for a about 1% weekly gain as strong US data and hawkish Fed signals outweighed a wider trade deficit and softer housing data.

Weekly jobless claims fell to a five-week low, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index reached its highest level in five months. December’s trade deficit widened and January pending home sales declined, offering a mixed domestic backdrop.

In Japan, the 10-year government bond yield eased toward 2.1%, a six-week low, as inflation cooled in January. Headline CPI slowed to 1.5% from 2.1%, the lowest since March 2022, while core inflation aligned with the Bank of Japan’s 2% target at its softest pace in two years.

Global markets leaned defensive as hawkish Federal Reserve signals and political uncertainty in Europe lifted the US dollar and weighed on major currencies. The euro slipped to a two-week low amid reports that ECB President Christine Lagarde may step down early, adding leadership risk to an already cautious policy outlook. The Japanese yen weakened past 155 as softer inflation data reduced pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten further. Sterling softened after UK inflation fell sharply, strengthening the case for Bank of England easing

In commodities, gold stabilized near the $5,000 mark as investors balanced rising Middle East tensions against resilient US economic data and reduced near-term rate-cut expectations. Silver held above $78, supported by geopolitical risk despite lingering volatility and light holiday trading.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Dips on Hawkish Fed, Exit Rumors
Yen Weakens Past 155
Gold Stabilizes Near $5,000
Pound Weakens as Inflation Tumbles
Silver Stabilizes Above $78

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Gold holds above $5,000 as growth slows and inflation stays firm​

Gold is trading near $5,040 and holding above the key $5,000 level. The latest US GDP data showed clear slowdown, which supports gold. But inflation is still firm, so rate cuts may take longer. This is limiting stronger upside for now.

Geopolitical tensions are also helping gold stay supported. The overall trend remains positive as long as price stays above $5,000. A clean break above resistance could open the door for another move higher.

Technical levels:
R1: 5032.18 S1: 5012.83
R2: 5039.11 S2: 5000.41
R3: 5051.53 S3: 4993.48

 

[zForex]

Tariff Ruling Shakes Markets (02.23.2026)​

The dollar index pushed toward 98 on Friday, setting up for an approximate 1% weekly advance.

In Japan, the 10-year government bond yield eased toward 2.1%, touching a six-week low as inflation moderated. Headline CPI slowed to 1.5% from 2.1%, marking the lowest level since March 2022, while core inflation aligned with the Bank of Japan’s 2% target at its softest pace in two years.

Markets reacted sharply to renewed trade uncertainty after a US Supreme Court ruling overturned President Trump’s emergency tariff powers. The move was supported by solid economic indicators, with weekly jobless claims falling to a five-week low and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rising to its highest level in five months. December’s trade deficit widened and pending home sales declined in January, presenting a more uneven domestic picture.

The decision weakened the dollar and supported major currencies, with the euro rebounding toward $1.18 on strong Eurozone PMI data and the yen recovering toward 154 as trade risks resurfaced. Sterling also recovered above $1.35, aided by a softer dollar and improved UK business activity, as investors reassessed global growth and trade dynamics.

Precious metals outperformed, led by a surge in gold to a three-week high near $5,150 and a sharp rally in silver above $87, both driven by rising safe-haven demand amid escalating tariff friction.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Climbs on Court Ruling
Yen Strengthens on Tariff Shift
Gold Surges on Tariff Friction
Sterling Reclaims $1.35
Silver Surges Past $87

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Geopolitics and Trade Drive Volatility (02.24.2026)​

Global markets are navigating a renewed wave of uncertainty as shifting U.S. trade policy and geopolitical tensions reshape risk sentiment. The Trump administration’s move to reintroduce a global tariff framework, starting at 10% with the option to raise it to 15%, has unsettled investors and prompted swift responses from major economies.

The EU paused ratification of its U.S. trade agreement, while India delayed negotiations, underlining the fragile state of global trade relations. Against this backdrop, currency markets showed mixed moves, with the euro and pound finding support from regional data, the yen retreating as the dollar stabilized.

Attention has shifted to renewed US–Iran nuclear talks. While Washington has signaled openness to diplomacy, warnings of serious consequences if discussions fail have kept a risk premium embedded in energy markets. Oil remains supported by Middle East tensions, while precious metals fluctuate alongside shifts in defensive positioning.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Climbs Above $1.18
Yen Retreats Toward 155
Gold Dips Below $5,190
Pound Reclaims $1.35 on Solid UK Data
Silver Declines on Profit-Taking and Trade Concerns

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

US stock market dominance raises “too big to fail” debate​

US households now hold a record share of their wealth in stocks. This means the economy is more tied to market performance than ever before. When stocks rise, spending and confidence also improve.

But this creates risk. If stocks fall sharply, it could hurt consumer spending and economic growth. This is why markets are becoming more important for overall stability, not just for investors.

 

[zForex]

Cheap stocks are disappearing as valuations stay high​

Cheap stocks are becoming harder to find, especially in Europe. The share of very low-valued stocks has dropped sharply in the past two years. This shows markets are no longer offering many clear bargain opportunities.

In the US, valuations are also staying high. A large portion of stocks trade at elevated P/E levels, driven by growth and tech expectations. This means investors now need to be more selective, as broad cheap opportunities are limited.

 

[zForex]

New U.S. Tariffs Start Taking Effect (02.25.2026)​

Global markets remained cautious as a new 10% U.S. global tariff came into force, keeping trade uncertainty at the center of investor focus.

The euro stayed below $1.18, while the yen weakened amid softer expectations for Bank of Japan tightening. Gold and silver found support from renewed safe-haven demand linked to tariff risks, while sterling held steady near recent lows as traders assessed the potential impact of higher levies in the months ahead.

Brent crude rose to roughly $71.4 per barrel, recovering from two consecutive losses

Nasdaq climbed to 25,072, gaining 1.09% on the session. The benchmark has risen 2.49% over the past month and 18.64% year-on-year.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Stays Below $1.18
Yen Weakens Near 156
Gold Rebounds Toward $5,180
Pound Steady Near $1.35
Silver Recovers Above $90

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Gold holds near $5,200 as geopolitics keep buyers active​

Gold is trading near $5,180–$5,200 and staying firm. US-Iran tensions and trade uncertainty are supporting safe-haven demand. This is helping gold remain close to its recent highs.

Technically, the trend remains clearly bullish. Price is holding above the 20-day EMA near $5,010 and continues to respect the rising trend line from the $4,400 area. The EMA acting as support shows buyers are still active on pullbacks. The RSI near 60 also signals positive momentum without being overbought.

Technical levels:​

R1: 5240 S1: 5120
R2: 5380 S2: 5010
R3: 5525 S3: 4880

As long as gold stays above the trend line and the 20-day EMA, dips may continue to attract buyers. A daily break above $5,240 could open the door toward $5,380 and higher.

 

[zForex]

Brent oil rebounds near $71 as Iran risk keeps supply concerns alive​

Brent is trading around $71.1 after recent losses. The main driver is rising tension around US–Iran talks and the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. If tensions escalate, oil could move higher quickly due to supply fears.

Technically, the structure is turning positive again. Price is back above the pivot level and moving toward resistance, This shows buyers are still active despite recent pullback.

RSI (63) shows positive momentum. Most EMAs (10, 20, 50, 100, 200) remain in buy mode, confirming the broader uptrend.

A break above $71.23 could open the way for further upside.

Technical levels:​

R1: 71.03 S1: 70.83
R2: 71.14 S2: 70.74
R3: 71.23 S3: 70.63

 

[zForex]

Trade Tensions Lift Safe Havens (02.26.2026)​

Markets remained cautious as a new 10% U.S. global tariff weighed on risk sentiment. The euro and pound stayed under pressure near recent lows, while the yen rebounded on renewed speculation around Bank of Japan tightening.

In commodities, gold held near four-week highs and silver surged toward $90 as geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns increased safe-haven demand, even as expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts remained limited.

Bitcoin trades around $68,284, extending its monthly recovery, while the US 100 Tech Index stands near 25,264 with strong annual gains. Focus now shifts to US Initial Jobless Claims, expected at 217K versus the previous 206K, for fresh labor market signals.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Faces Headwinds
Yen Rebounds Past 156
Gold Nears Four-Week High
Pound Near One-Month Lows
Silver Rallies Toward $90

 

[zForex]

Nvidia delivers strong results as AI demand stays hot​

Nvidia reported another strong quarter, with revenue up 73% year-on-year. Demand for AI chips and data center infrastructure remains very strong. The company also gave higher guidance, showing momentum is still building.

Margins stayed high, which confirms this growth is highly profitable. However, the stock reaction was limited because expectations were already very high. Markets now want to see if Nvidia can sustain this pace long term.

 

[zForex]

Geopolitical Risks Lift CDS, Tech Momentum Weakens​

US-Iran talks ended without a deal, keeping geopolitical risks elevated.

Meanwhile, tech stocks lost momentum despite strong earnings. Nvidia declined sharply, dragging Nasdaq lower and signaling a shift in investor focus toward profit sustainability. Safe-haven demand remains strong as markets stay cautious.

 

[zForex]

Inflation Data Keeps Markets on Edge (02.27.2026)​

Markets traded cautiously ahead of key inflation data and amid ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainty.

Brent crude climbed above $71 per barrel, reversing a three-day slide. Gold extended its advance toward a fourth weekly gain, supported by tariff concerns and stalled U.S.-Iran talks, while silver climbed toward $90 on renewed safe-haven demand.

Nasdaq dropped 1.16% on Thursday, February 26, to finish at 25,034. While the index has surrendered 3.49% over the past month, it maintains a strong 21.82% annual gain.

The euro held below $1.18 as investors awaited fresh inflation signals to assess the ECB’s policy outlook, while the yen rebounded modestly but remained pressured by policy uncertainty in Japan. Sterling softened near $1.35 as political developments added another layer of uncertainty for the pound. The offshore yuan appreciated to 6.83 per dollar, marking its fourth consecutive gain and strongest level since April 2023.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Stays Under $1.18
Yen Rebounds Toward 155.9
Gold Eyes Fourth Weekly Gain
Sterling Softens Near $1.35
Silver Eyes Second Weekly Gain

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Tech Giants Diverge on OpenAI News​

Microsoft confirmed its latest investment maintains its current partnership with OpenAI, allowing continued model customization across its product suite. Despite this stability, Microsoft shares fell 2.4% in pre-market trading.

Meanwhile, Amazon slipped 1% following its own OpenAI-related announcement, and Alphabet edged down 0.7% as investors weighed the shifting competitive landscape.

 

[zForex]

Geopolitical Shock Triggers Risk-Off Move (03.02.2026)​

President Trump stated that operations against Iran could last up to four weeks, though he added that developments are proceeding as planned and could wrap up sooner.

The dollar index gained about 0.5% to near 98 before giving back part of the move, as investors shifted toward safer assets

Global markets turned sharply risk-averse as escalating conflict in the Middle East reshaped sentiment across asset classes. Precious metals led the reaction, with gold jumping to a one-month high and silver spiking sharply as investors rushed for protection amid severe geopolitical disruptions.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) raised the security risk level for the Strait of Hormuz to “critical,” confirming several attacks on commercial ships in the Gulf of Oman, near Musandam, and in UAE waters. Brent crude spiked sharply at the open, briefly jumping 12% before settling more than 8% higher at $78 per barrel, its highest level in eight months

The dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand, keeping EUR/USD capped near 1.1800 and pushing the yen toward multi-week lows despite lingering Bank of Japan tightening signals. Sterling attempted a modest rebound but remained technically fragile, reflecting persistent downside risks. Overall, heightened geopolitical stress has overtaken macro data as the dominant driver, leaving markets highly sensitive to further developments.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

EUR/USD Hovers Near 1.1800
Yen Slides Amid Middle East Conflict
Gold Hits One-Month High Near $5,370
GBP/USD Rebounds Toward 1.3450
Silver Spikes Amid Regional Turmoil

Economic Calendar​