Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Gold Falls Toward $4,140​

Gold dropped to around $4,140, its lowest since August 5, as higher oil prices fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations for tighter Fed policy. A firmer US dollar and Treasury yields near 19-year highs added further pressure.

The short-term outlook remains bearish, with $4,040-$4,050 emerging as the next downside area if selling continues. Markets now await US PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls for fresh direction.

Silver Drops Toward $61​

Silver dropped more than 4% toward $61, reaching its lowest since August 7 as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations for prolonged tight Fed policy. A stronger US dollar and Treasury yields near 19-year highs added to the pressure.

Technically, $59.45-$59.50 remains a key support area. As long as silver stays below $65.50, the short-term outlook remains tilted to the downside.

Euro Near June Low at $1.135​

The euro slipped toward $1.135, its lowest since June 26, as a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on the pair. Lagarde said the inflation outlook for 2027 and 2028 has shifted higher, largely due to high energy prices, while maintaining that a measured policy response remains appropriate.

Markets are now pricing in around 100 basis points of ECB rate hikes by the end of 2027.

From a technical perspective, 1.1325 is the key support to watch, while 1.1410 marks the first major resistance. The pair could remain under pressure unless it moves back above this level.

Brent at $103 as Saudi Flows Resume​

Brent traded near $103 a barrel after Saudi Arabia resumed shipments through its East-West pipeline, easing near-term supply concerns. However, uncertainty around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz keeps geopolitical risk in focus.

Technically, $100 is the first key support, followed by $89.15. On the upside, $105-$106 is the first resistance zone, followed by $110-$112 and $120.

 

[zForex]

High Yields and Fed Pressure Metals (09.29.2026)​

Renewed Middle East tensions and persistent inflation concerns are keeping financial conditions tight on September 29. The dollar remains near a two-month high as markets price roughly a two-thirds chance of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October.

Energy markets have again become the main geopolitical risk. Oil rose for a second session after Washington rejected Iran’s latest proposal concerning the Strait of Hormuz, while continued regional tensions threaten supply routes.

Rising oil prices and elevated Treasury yields are reinforcing expectations that monetary policy may need to stay restrictive for longer.

In China, sentiment received modest support from targeted US-China tariff reductions following the Trump-Xi summit, but major disagreements remain unresolved. China is also preparing additional economic support as domestic growth pressures persist.

EUR/USD Trades Below 1.1400​

EUR/USD slipped below 1.1400 during early Asian trading on Monday, reaching a late-July low of 1.1358. Hawkish Federal Reserve commentary has raised expectations for an October rate increase above 65%, while Middle East tensions continue to increase safe-haven demand for the US dollar.

Despite recent European Central Bank tightening, the euro remains under pressure. Technical indicators show oversold conditions, with traders looking to upcoming German economic data for further direction.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1400 while the support starts from 1.1350.

Gold Continues its Decline​

Gold extended its decline on Monday, dropping under 4.150 per ounce and marking its lowest level since early August following a steep 4% loss in the prior session. The metal remains pinned below its 100-day moving average as multi-year high US Treasury yields and elevated oil prices support inflation expectations, weighing heavily on non-yielding bullion. Market participants now look to upcoming US inflation and labor market data for potential relief.

First resistance is seen at $4200, with initial support near $4080.

USD/JPY Eases to 156.90​

USD/JPY extended its pullback on Tuesday, easing to around 156.90 as the pair consolidates within a symmetrical triangle. Prices remain below both the 9- and 50-day moving averages, keeping the short-term bias tilted downward.

While hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric continues to support the US dollar, comments from a former Bank of Japan official suggesting a potential back-to-back rate hike in late October are providing fresh underlying support for the yen.

First resistance is seen at 159.50, with initial support near 157.00.

GBP/USD Bounces Modestly to $1.3251​

GBP/USD edged up to around $1.3251 on Tuesday, recovering slightly after an extended slide left its 14-day RSI oversold near 30. Bank of England officials delivered hawkish signals, with Deputy Governor Ramsden and Governor Bailey pointing to persistent inflation and energy costs as reasons further rate hikes remain possible.

However, sluggish private-sector growth and weak labor demand continue to cap gains against a resilient US dollar, leaving traders focused on upcoming US inflation and labor data.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3270, with support around 1.3170.

Silver Trades Near $60.8​

Silver stabilized around $60.8 per ounce on Tuesday following a nearly 6% slide in the prior session. Oil prices climbed as Iranian officials expressed doubt over securing a deal before the US midterm elections after President Donald Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposal.

Unyielding energy costs continue to fuel inflation concerns, pushing Treasury yields to multi-year highs and intensifying pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain aggressive monetary tightening.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $61.00, while support is located around $60,10.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent surged nearly 2% toward $99.30 after Washington rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and signaled increased military pressure. Saudi Arabia also intercepted Houthi drones and missiles targeting Riyadh and areas near Aramco infrastructure, shortly after the East-West pipeline resumed operations.

Supply risks pushed oil higher despite falling equity markets. Brent has risen sharply across all timeframes and is now more than 70% higher year-to-date, according to Trading Economics.

Resistance is seen at 100.50, while the nearest support stands at 96.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded near 30,139 on September 29, falling 331 points, or 1.08%, from the previous session. The index has declined 2.32% over the past four weeks, while remaining 22.12% higher year-on-year.

Trading Economics models and analyst expectations project the index at around 29,947 by quarter-end, before potentially declining further to 28,048 over the next 12 months.

Resistance stands at 30,800, while the nearest support is located at 30,000.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin traded near $83,123 on September 29, down 0.45% from the previous session. The cryptocurrency has lost 7.01% over the past four weeks and remains 27.11% lower year-on-year.

Looking ahead, Trading Economics models and analyst forecasts project Bitcoin at around $84,180 by the end of the quarter, with the price potentially reaching $95,059 over the next 12 months.

Initial resistance sits near 85,500, with support around 83,000.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.70 per dollar, extending gains as markets assessed the Trump-Xi summit. The US and China agreed to reduce tariffs on about $30 billion of imports from each country and extend their trade truce through January.

However, no major breakthroughs emerged on AI cooperation, Iran, or US arms sales to Taiwan. Meanwhile, China’s industrial profits rose 15.7% year-on-year to CNY 5.27 trillion in the first eight months of 2026, slowing from 17.6% growth in January–July.

Resistance stands at 6.7250 while the nearest support is located at 6.7000.

 

[zForex]

Dollar Strength Pressures Markets (09.30.2026)​

A firm US dollar and elevated Treasury yields continued to shape trading as September drew to a close. The 30-year Treasury yield hitting 5.62%, its highest since 2002. Fed official John Williams also left the door open to another rate hike later this year, putting gold on course for a nearly 6% September loss.

[URL deleted]​

Economic Calendar​

Euro Weakens to $1.133​

The euro fell to approximately $1.133, hitting its lowest level since May 2025, pressured by a strengthening US dollar and policy divergence expectations between central banks. Higher oil prices driven by stalled Hormuz negotiations have fueled bets on Federal Reserve tightening.

Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled a measured stance, noting limited second-round inflation effects. Despite sluggish European growth projections and upcoming political uncertainty, elevated inflation keeps four ECB rate hikes priced in over the coming year.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1361 while the support starts from 1.1301.

Gold Holds Close to $4,180​

Gold stabilized near $4,180 per ounce following a previous session rebound, drawing support from easing crude oil prices. Upside remains constrained by elevated Treasury yields, with the 30-year rate hitting 5.62%, its highest level since June 2002.

Persistent inflation concerns and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric continue to weigh on non-yielding assets, with New York Fed President John Williams suggesting a potential late-year rate hike. Gold remains set for a nearly 6% decline in September.

First resistance is seen at $4230, with initial support near $4140.

Yen is Firming Past 157​

Japanese officials warned against rapid currency movements and confirmed joint coordination with the United States, helping the yen firm past 157 per dollar. Nevertheless, substantial interest rate differentials between the US and Japan continue to exert persistent downward pressure on the currency.

First resistance is seen at 159.50, with initial support near 155.00.

Sterling Drops Near $1.32​

Sterling fell toward $1.32, hovering near a three-month low, as expectations build for an October Federal Reserve interest rate hike while the Bank of England is projected to wait until November. Although markets price an 80% chance of a November BoE increase from its current 3.75% rate, sluggish UK economic growth may restrict additional monetary tightening.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3260, with support around 1.3200.

Silver Holds Above $61​

Silver stabilized above $61 per ounce, snapping its recent slide as easing crude oil prices provided underlying support. However, high Treasury yields and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary continue to create strong headwinds, leaving the metal on track for a nearly 8% monthly decline.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $62.70, while support is located around $59.60.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent held near $96 after a sharp decline as Middle East exports recovered to 98% of pre-war levels and the US prepared to release up to 40 million barrels from its reserves. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline is operating at around half capacity, while US crude inventories increased by 1 million barrels.

Despite the pullback, Brent is heading for a third consecutive monthly gain, reflecting the impact of the US-Iran conflict on oil prices throughout the period.

Resistance is seen at 98.70, while the nearest support stands at 94.30.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index rose 0.21% to 30,345, taking its four-week gain to 3.01% and its 12-month advance to 22.35%. Analysts predict the index to be at 29,947 by quarter-end and 28,048 in 12 months.

Resistance stands at 31.000, while the nearest support is located at 30,200.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The yuan held near 6.70 per dollar after China’s Composite PMI climbed to 50.7, its highest since December 2025, alongside the announcement of new stimulus measures. The currency is also on track for its seventh consecutive quarterly gain.

The first resistance stands at 6.7210, while support begins at 6.6940.

BTC/USD​

Bitcoin slipped 0.38% to $83,313, extending its monthly decline to around 6%, while losses over the past year approach 30%. Trading Economics forecasts the cryptocurrency at $84,180 by quarter-end and $95,059 in 12 months.

Initial resistance sits near 84,500, with support around 81,600.

 

[zForex]

Softer US Inflation Offers Limited Relief (10.01.2026)​

Cooling US inflation provided some relief across markets, but elevated Treasury yields continued to support the dollar and limit broader recoveries.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Closes Below 1.1350​

The euro remained under pressure as accelerating inflation across major European economies contrasted with rising US Treasury yields that continue supporting the dollar. EUR/USD closed below 1.1350 for a second straight session after Spain’s annual inflation rate reached 5% in September, its highest mark since 2023.

Financial markets now await Friday's preliminary eurozone inflation data, where headline consumer price growth is projected to pick up to 3.6%.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1361 while the support starts from 1.1301.

Gold Rebounds Toward $4,200​

Gold advanced toward $4,200 per ounce on Thursday, rebounding after cooler US PCE inflation data reduced market expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike to 38%. Easing crude oil prices also lent support amid signs of improving Middle East energy supply.

However, elevated Treasury yields near multi-decade highs continue to limit broader gains, with markets still pricing in a 97% probability of a Fed rate increase in December.

First resistance is seen at $4230, with initial support near $4140.

Japan Manufacturing Slows as USD/JPY Tests 158​

Japan’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was finalized at 54.1 for September 2026, dropping from August's 54.9 reading to mark the slowest pace of expansion since March amid moderating output and new orders.

Following the release, USD/JPY tested above 158.00, with technical analysts noting that a decisive break past 158.28 could clear the path toward 159.00 and 161.10.

First resistance is seen at 159.50, with initial support near 155.00.

GBP/USD Slips Near 1.3265​

GBP/USD weakened to around 1.3265 in early European trading on Thursday, remaining under downward pressure below its 100-day SMA. Despite deeply oversold conditions, the technical outlook favors further weakness. Key technical levels highlight initial resistance around 1.3260, with immediate support resting at 1.3200 on the downside.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3260, with support around 1.3200.

Silver Hits Two-Month Low Near $61​

Silver traded near $61 per ounce on Thursday, touching a two-month low as high Treasury yields and elevated energy costs overshadowed softer US inflation figures. August PCE data showed headline inflation slowing to 3.4% year-over-year, undercutting expectations and lowering the market-implied probability of an October Federal Reserve rate hike to roughly 38%.

However, persistent crude oil strength linked to slow progress in US-Iran negotiations continues to weigh on precious metal sentiment.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $62.70, while support is located around $59.60.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent held near $98 as recovering Middle East supply competed with the ongoing deadlock in US-Iran talks. Regional shipments are approaching pre-war levels after Saudi Arabia restored half the capacity of its East-West pipeline, while flows through the Strait of Hormuz reached 13.2 million barrels per day.

The recovery remains vulnerable without a lasting agreement to end the Iran war, with Tehran and Washington both claiming control of the strategic waterway.

Resistance is seen at 98.70, while the nearest support stands at 94.30.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index rose 0.23% to 30,561, extending its four-week gain to 4.87% and its 12-month advance to 22.77%. Trading Economics projects the index at 29,947 by quarter-end and 28,048 within a year.

Resistance stands at 31.000, while the nearest support is located at 30,200.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The yuan held near 6.70 per dollar as stronger activity data and additional policy support improved sentiment around China’s economy. The official Composite PMI rose to 50.7, its highest since December 2025, with manufacturing returning to expansion at 50.1 from 49.8 and non-manufacturing climbing to 50.2 from 49.0.

Private data painted an even stronger picture: the Composite PMI reached 52.1, manufacturing rose to 52.1 from 51.5, and services edged up to 51.6 from 51.4.

The first resistance stands at 6.7210, while support begins at 6.6940.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin traded near $83,481, down 0.07% on the day. The cryptocurrency has lost 8.01% over the past four weeks and 30.83% over the past year, while analysts project $84,180 by quarter-end and $95,059 within 12 months.

Initial resistance sits near 84,500, with support around 81,600.

 

[zForex]

Strong Dollar Continues to Weigh on Markets (10.02.2026)​

A stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields kept pressure on major currencies and precious metals as markets awaited the latest US employment data.

Economic Calendar​

EURUSD​

The euro fell below $1.13 to hit its lowest level since May 2025, following a September slide of over 2%, its sharpest monthly drop in 14 months. Broad dollar strength and expectations that the European Central Bank will lag the Federal Reserve's tightening pace weighed heavily.

Meanwhile, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel signaled caution regarding energy shocks, while a subdued economic growth outlook continues to restrain aggressive rate increases.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1270 while the support starts from 1.1220.

JAPANESE YEN​

The yen firmed slightly below 158 per dollar on Friday as Tokyo’s core inflation rate accelerated to 2.7% in September, surpassing the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time in nine months.

However, gains remained limited after a less hawkish summary from the BOJ's September meeting offered little clarity on future rate hikes. With Federal Reserve tightening continuing to outpace BOJ policy normalization, the yen stayed on track for its third consecutive weekly loss.

First resistance is seen at 159.50, with initial support near 155.00.

BRITISH POUND​

Sterling weakened to around $1.32 near three-month lows at the start of October, following a 2% September drop as elevated oil prices heightened inflation concerns, raised bond yields, and dampened economic growth prospects.

Markets now price in four Bank of England rate hikes by July 2027, beginning in November, supported by Governor Andrew Bailey's signals of openness to further monetary tightening.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3340, with support around 1.3140.

OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN​

The offshore yuan weakened toward 6.71 per dollar as rising US Treasury yields supported the dollar, with higher oil prices adding to inflation concerns.

Beijing’s latest stimulus package, including mortgage subsidies and expanded central bank funding, also failed to provide much support despite marking China’s biggest easing push since September 2024.

The first resistance stands at 6.7210, while support begins at 6.6940.

GOLD​

Gold slipped to around $4,190 an ounce on Friday, heading for a second consecutive weekly loss as rising crude oil prices driven by US-Iran geopolitical tension heightened inflation fears.

A firmer US dollar and elevated Treasury yields added further pressure ahead of the upcoming September non-farm payrolls release, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted uncertainty over how high interest rates must go.

First resistance is seen at $4230, with initial support near $4140.

SILVER​

Silver hovered around $61.4 per ounce on Friday, bound for another weekly decline as rising crude oil prices sparked US-Iran escalation fears and renewed inflation worries.

A firmer dollar and elevated Treasury yields further pressured the metal ahead of the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $62.00, while support is located around $60.00.

BRENT OIL​

Brent climbed above $102 for a second day as possible US military reinforcements raised concerns over a wider conflict with Iran and fresh supply disruptions.

Reports that Trump could restart strikes after the midterms added to uncertainty. Although regional exports have largely recovered, at least three tankers were attacked this week, while Iran and the Houthis have also targeted refineries.

Resistance is seen at 108.90, while the nearest support stands at 102.00.

NASDAQ 100​

The US 100 Tech Index rose 0.31% to 30,617, bringing its four-week gain to 3.85% and its 12-month advance to 23.53%.
Trading Economics projects the index at 29,947 by quarter-end and 28,048 in 12 months.

Resistance stands at 31.100, while the nearest support is located at 30,200.

BITCOIN​

Bitcoin edged 0.08% higher to $84,914, taking its four-week gain to 4.49%, though it remains 30.56% lower over the past year.
Trading Economics projects Bitcoin at $84,180 by quarter-end and $95,059 in 12 months.

Initial resistance sits near 87,400, with support around 84,500.

 

[zForex]

Safe-Haven Demand Keeps Dollar Firm (10.05.2026)​

US equity futures extended Friday’s gains as weak jobs data reduced expectations for further Fed hikes. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%, while Dow and S&P 500 contracts added 0.1%, with ISM services, Fed minutes and earnings from PepsiCo and Delta next in focus.

Treasury yields eased but stayed near two-decade highs, with the 10-year around 5.25% and 30-year near 5.6%. September payrolls rose just 29K, unemployment reached 4.2% and wage growth slowed, though energy-driven inflation, fiscal concerns and AI-related borrowing kept yields high.

The dollar index held near 102, close to its strongest since April 2025. Fading Fed hike bets limited gains, while euro weakness linked to French fiscal and political concerns provided support.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped more than 2% toward 70,000, reaching a three-month high as softer US jobs data lifted technology and AI shares. Advantest, SoftBank Group and Tokyo Electron gained over 3%, though high bond yields and Middle East risks kept caution in place.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Weakens as Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Dollar​

EUR/USD dropped 0.71% to 1.1174 early Monday as safe-haven demand lifts the US dollar. Elevated Treasury yields, Middle East conflict risks, and fiscal uncertainty in France weighed on the euro. Although softer September US jobs figures lowered Federal Reserve rate-hike odds, hawkish official rhetoric sustained dollar strength as markets turn to the US ISM Services PMI.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1260 while the support starts from 1.1150.

Gold Stabilizes Near $4,150​

Gold hovered around $4,150 an ounce on Monday, recovering from earlier losses after soft US labor market data dampened Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations. September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29K, while unemployment rose to 4.2% and wage growth slowed. Although multi-decade high Treasury yields capped upside momentum, escalating Yemen-related Middle East tensions provided safe-haven support.

First resistance is seen at $4180, with initial support near $4120.

Yen Trades in Narrow Range Near 157.8​

The Japanese yen hovered near 157.8 per dollar on Monday, extending a two-week range-bound pattern as investors awaited key domestic data, including wage growth, household spending, and consumer sentiment. While the Bank of Japan's September summary signaled potential further tightening this year without explicit timing, broad dollar strength and high Treasury yields kept the currency subdued.

First resistance is seen at 158.50, with initial support near 155.80.

Sterling Weakens but Holds Above $1.32​

Sterling weakened on Monday but held above $1.32 as broad US dollar firmness counteracted soft US labor data. Downside stayed contained as markets continue pricing roughly 30 basis points of Bank of England tightening by year-end amid energy-led inflation risks. Meanwhile, political support from Prime Minister Andy Burnham for closer UK-EU ties offered additional underlying sentiment.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3340, with support around 1.3140.

Silver Rebounds Above $61​

Silver climbed above $61 per ounce on Monday, recovering from earlier losses as weak US employment figures reduced Federal Reserve rate-hike prospects. September non-farm payrolls added only 29K jobs, while unemployment ticked up to 4.2% and wage growth moderated. Although elevated Treasury yields limited further upside, escalating Yemen-related Middle East conflicts sustained safe-haven demand.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $62.50, while support is located around $60.00.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent fell below $101.30 as Saudi-backed forces launched a major operation against the Houthis, who seized the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint used for Saudi oil exports.

OPEC+ kept production quotas unchanged, while G7 countries released emergency reserves in response to supply disruptions.

Resistance is seen at 102.90, while the nearest support stands at 100.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq-100 traded near 30,808 after gaining 1% in its latest session, with futures adding around 0.3%.

Weak payrolls and slower wage growth strengthened expectations for a Fed pause, supporting tech stocks, while strong chipmaker performance helped offset high Treasury yields. Moderna will replace Warner Bros. Discovery in the index on Friday.

Resistance stands at 31.300, while the nearest support is located at 30,700.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded near $86,400, consolidating below its recent intraday high after entering October with positive momentum following a rare September gain.

Still, high Treasury yields and cooling ETF inflows kept the advance in check before the Fed’s next policy decision.

Initial resistance sits near 88,400, with support around 84,500.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan weakened toward 6.71 per dollar, reversing last week’s gains as dollar strength spilled across currencies.

Traders also assessed Beijing’s latest stimulus measures, including mortgage subsidies and expanded central bank funding, during subdued National Day holiday trading.

The first resistance stands at 6.7210, while support begins at 6.6940.

 

[zForex]

Metals Keep Near Two-Month Lows (10.06.2026)​

US stock futures edged 0.1% higher after the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.05% to a record close, led by Nvidia, Tesla and Microsoft. SpaceX jumped more than 7% on Florida pipeline reports, while 10- and 30-year Treasury yields reached their highest since 2002.

The dollar index held near 102, close to its strongest since April 2025, as French fiscal concerns and Spain’s snap election weighed on the euro. Multi-decade-high Treasury yields added support, despite a 78% probability of a Fed hold this month.

Japan’s 10-year yield climbed to around 3.12%, near a three-decade high, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi pushed ahead with fiscal expansion. The BOJ also kept another rate hike this year in play, with wage and spending data next on the calendar.

The US 10-year yield held near 5.32%, close to its highest since 2002, as fiscal and inflation concerns drove a broader bond selloff. European yields also climbed, while Fed minutes on Wednesday could provide the next signal on rates.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Consolidates Near 1.1220​

EUR/USD hovered around 1.1221 Tuesday morning, steadying after touching 1.1162 on Monday, its lowest level since May 2025. Political uncertainty from Spain's snap election, rising French borrowing costs, and September Eurozone inflation ticking up to 3.8% continued to weigh on European sentiment, while a resilient US dollar maintained its broader strength despite soft US employment data.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1260 while the support starts from 1.1190.

Gold Holds Below $4,140​

Gold remained under $4,140 per ounce on Tuesday, holding near two-month lows as a strong US dollar and Treasury yields hovering near 24-year highs counteracted support from weak employment data. European fiscal and political headwinds dragged the euro down, reinforcing dollar strength. Markets now price a 78% probability of a Fed pause, while softening crude oil prices moderated inflation concerns.

First resistance is seen at $4155, with initial support near $4100.

Yen Steady Near 157.9​

The Japanese yen hovered around 157.9 per dollar on Tuesday as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi pursued her expansionary fiscal agenda, proposing a food consumption tax cut funded without issuing new bonds. Investors are awaiting key domestic wage and spending figures, while hawkish notes in the Bank of Japan’s September summary kept expectations alive for another rate increase this year.

First resistance is seen at 158.50, with initial support near 156.80.

Sterling Rebounds Above $1.32​

Sterling held above $1.32 on Tuesday, rebounding from three-month lows after weak US non-farm payrolls data, showing just 29,000 September additions versus 90,000 expected, reduced Federal Reserve rate hike bets. Meanwhile, expectations for roughly 30 basis points of Bank of England tightening by year-end due to energy-driven inflation risks and pro-EU comments from Prime Minister Andy Burnham provided support.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3340, with support around 1.3140.

Silver Holds Below $61​

Silver traded below $61 per ounce on Tuesday, holding near two-month lows as a firmer dollar and Treasury yields at 24-year highs outweighed support from soft labor data. Weakness in the euro due to European political and fiscal concerns supported the dollar. Markets price a 78% chance of a Fed pause, while declining crude prices eased inflation fears.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $62.50, while support is located around $60.00.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent hovered around $100 a barrel after Monday’s decline as Middle East exports moved closer to prewar levels.

JPMorgan estimated crude shipments had recovered to 98% of prewar volumes, helped by stronger flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia also lowered Asian prices for its flagship crude grade, with the EIA’s energy outlook next on the calendar.

Resistance is seen at 102.90, while the nearest support stands at 99.20.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq-100 held near a record 31,076 after gaining 0.87% on Monday and reaching an intraday high of 31,117.

Softer US payrolls reduced Fed hike expectations, while Nvidia climbed 2.1% to a record, lifting its market value to $5.76 trillion. Warner Bros. Discovery exits the index today, with Moderna joining on Friday.

Resistance stands at 31.500, while the nearest support is located at 30,800.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The yuan traded near 6.7046 per dollar, staying close to its strongest level in a year.

Tight PBOC control over daily midpoint fixings kept volatility low, while stronger services data helped counter broad dollar strength. Trading was subdued during China’s Golden Week holiday.

The first resistance stands at 6.7210, while support begins at 6.6940.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)​

Bitcoin traded around $85,331, little changed after its weekend rally failed to clear $87,000. The US 10-year Treasury yield near 5.33% weighed on crypto, even as the probability of an October Fed hike fell to around 23% from 64% last week.

Bitcoin is still roughly 32% below its October 2025 record high.

Initial resistance sits near 87,400, with support around 84,500.

 

[zForex]

Oil Inventories Near Depletion (10.07.2026)​

Oil inventories are nearing depletion, increasing supply risks and supporting prices. Aramco estimates less than 6 billion barrels remain after over 1 billion barrels were drawn this year, while the IEA is preparing a 100-million-barrel release.

The US 10-year Treasury yield stabilized near 5.31% on Wednesday, close to 24-year peaks, as markets awaited the Fed's minutes.

The dollar index stabilized around 102 on Wednesday following Tuesday's losses, with traders awaiting Fed meeting minutes.

US stock futures were flat after the S&P 500 rose 0.58%, Nasdaq 0.45% and Dow 0.49% to another strong close. Chipmakers led, with Marvell up 5.8%, Broadcom 3.7% and AMD 2.8%, while attention turned to the Fed minutes and recovering oil prices.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Capped by European Fiscal Strains​

EUR/USD hovered around 1.1237 on Wednesday morning ahead of the FOMC minutes release, with markets pricing roughly a 78% probability of a Fed pause this month. European political and fiscal concerns, particularly French budget strains and elevated borrowing costs, kept euro gains limited, while the US 10-year yield holding at 5.29% provided ongoing support for the dollar.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1260 while the support starts from 1.1190.

Gold Dips Under $4,150​

Gold slipped below $4,150 per ounce on Wednesday, surrendering part of Tuesday's gains as crude oil rebounded amid escalating Iranian tanker attacks in Hormuz and renewed Saudi-Houthi conflict. Re-ignited inflation and interest rate concerns kept Treasury yields near multi-decade highs, with markets pricing nearly an 80% chance of a Fed pause ahead of the FOMC minutes.

First resistance is seen at $4170, with initial support near $4100.

Yen Slips Toward 158.5​

The yen slid toward 158.5 per dollar on Wednesday, nearing two-week lows as wide US-Japan yield differentials favored the dollar. Japanese rate levels, heavy public debt, and expansionary spending proposals under Takaichi added pressure. However, August real wages rose 1.5% for an eighth straight gain, while BoJ official Ayano Sato backed gradual monetary policy tightening.

First resistance is seen at 158.60, with initial support near 157.50.

Sterling Holds Near $1.3250​

The British pound traded near $1.3248 on Wednesday, consolidating after a recovery from three-month lows as investors awaited Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Persistent UK inflation and elevated energy costs sustained Bank of England tightening expectations, offering underlying support. However, caution ahead of the late October UK Autumn Budget and a firm US dollar capped additional sterling upside.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3340, with support around 1.3140.

Silver Falls Below $61​

Silver fell below $61 per ounce on Wednesday, surrendering part of Tuesday's gains as crude oil rebounded following escalated Iranian tanker attacks in Hormuz and Saudi-Houthi clashes. The oil rally kept inflation and interest rate concerns at the forefront, holding Treasury yields near multi-decade highs while traders priced nearly an 80% probability of a Fed hold ahead of FOMC minutes.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $62.50, while support is located around $60.00.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent climbed above $101 a barrel as developments in the Middle East outweighed signs of improving supply. Iran increased tanker attacks around Hormuz, with the UKMTO reporting nine incidents this month, while Saudi forces intercepted a Houthi missile.

Oil is still lower for the week as Gulf flows recover, while US API figures showed a decline in crude inventories.

Resistance is seen at 102.90, while the nearest support stands at 99.20.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq-100 traded near 31,225 after Tuesday’s 0.48% gain delivered another record close and an intraday high of 31,361.

Mega-cap technology stocks drove the advance, with Nvidia approaching a $6 trillion market value, while softer Treasury yields reduced some valuation pressure. Moderna is also set to join the index on Friday.

Resistance stands at 31.700, while the nearest support is located at 30,900.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The yuan held near 6.7043 per dollar, consolidating close to its strongest levels in several months. PBOC guidance through daily midpoint fixings helped counter broad dollar strength, while solid services activity provided additional support despite high global rates.

Onshore trading volumes also began returning to normal after the Golden Week closures.

The first resistance stands at 6.7210, while support begins at 6.6940.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)​

Bitcoin traded near $84,200, falling 0.45% as caution increased before the Fed minutes. A brief derivatives flush cleared short-term leveraged long positions and added to intraday volatility.

Regulatory sentiment offered some support after the CFTC listed Bitcoin among key examples of digital commodities, helping ease lingering uncertainty around its classification.

Initial resistance sits near 87,400, with support around 82,500.

 

[zForex]

Hawkish Fed Lifts Yields and Pressure Markets (10.08.2026)​

Hawkish Federal Reserve meeting minutes reinforced expectations for another rate hike this year, pushing Treasury yields higher and supporting the US dollar.

The dollar index remained above 102 on Thursday, close to its highest since April 2025, as hawkish FOMC minutes showed all 19 policymakers supported September's increase, with most expecting another before year-end.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Steadies Around 1.1205​

EUR/USD traded near 1.1205 on Thursday, attempting to stabilize following a drop to 1.1162, its lowest point in 17 months. Eurozone sentiment remains weighed down by French debt concerns, Spain's snap election, and a 10.6% plunge in German factory orders. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields topping 5.3% widened rate differentials ahead of upcoming U.S. jobless claims data.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1250 while the support starts from 1.1180.

Gold Hovers Near Two-Month Low​

Gold hovered near $4,120 per ounce on Thursday, remaining suppressed around multi-month lows as hawkish FOMC minutes signaled heightened probability of another U.S. interest rate hike this year. Markets currently price a 78% chance of a December move. Meanwhile, oil prices advanced following reports of Washington seeking strike plans against Iran before the midterms, re-igniting energy-driven inflation fears.

First resistance is seen at $4155, with initial support near $4100.

Yen Flattens Around 158​

The Japanese Yen traded mostly flat near 158 per dollar on Thursday. A surging August current account surplus of ¥4.062 trillion surpassed expectations, providing underlying support. However, wide U.S.-Japan yield spreads, domestic fiscal expansion under Takaichi, and heavy public debt continue to weigh on the currency, while BoJ member Ayano Sato advocated for measured, staged rate adjustments.

First resistance is seen at 158.60, with initial support near 157.50.

Pound Consolidates Near $1.3212​

The British Pound traded near $1.3212 on Thursday, consolidating as strong U.S. Dollar demand maintained pressure on sterling. A surge in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields past 5.35% diverted capital from risk-sensitive currencies. Meanwhile, growing UK stagflation fears driven by high energy costs and borrowing rates kept buyers sidelined ahead of U.S. jobless claims.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3250, with support around 1.3160.

Silver Stays Below $60​

Silver held below $60 per ounce on Thursday, languishing near two-month lows. Hawkish FOMC minutes revealed unanimous backing for September's rate hike, with most officials supporting another move this year. Markets now price a 78% chance of a December hike. Rising oil prices following reports of Pentagon strike planning against Iran sustained upward pressure on inflation expectations.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $61.50, while support is located around $59,25.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent recovered above $101 a barrel, reversing Wednesday’s decline as fresh supply threats emerged on several fronts. Reports that the Trump administration sought Pentagon options for strikes against Iran before the midterms added to uncertainty, while Tropical Storm Isaias shut more than 510,000 barrels per day of Gulf of Mexico production.

Tanker attacks around Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia created further concerns over regional oil flows.

Resistance is seen at 103,40, while the nearest support stands at 100.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq-100 eased 0.21% to around 31,160, losing some momentum after its recent record close. The return of US 10-year Treasury yields above 5.35% put pressure on technology valuations, while Thursday’s jobless claims report offered another potential catalyst.

Portfolio adjustments also added to trading activity as Moderna prepares to replace Warner Bros. Discovery in the index on Friday.

Resistance stands at 31.500, while the nearest support is located at 30,900.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin dropped 2.7% over 24 hours to around $82,727, wiping out its early-week gains as more than $550 million in leveraged crypto long positions were liquidated.

Mixed spot ETF inflows offered little reassurance, pointing to more selective institutional demand.

Initial resistance sits near 85,400, with support around 80,500.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan held around 6.70 per dollar for a second session as trading resumed following Golden Week.

Attention shifted to Beijing’s largest stimulus package since September 2024, including mortgage subsidies and expanded PBOC funding. The measures aim to support China’s 4.5%–5.0% growth target after second-quarter expansion slowed to 4.3%, its weakest pace since 2022.

The first resistance stands at 6.7210, while support begins at 6.6940.

 

[zForex]

Falling Yields Lift Metals as Currencies Stabilize (10.09.2026)​

US stock futures stabilized Friday after a tech selloff linked to reports that OpenAI’s annualized revenue reached $50 billion, below the previously cited $68 billion.

The S&P 500 fell 0.47% and Nasdaq 1.25%, with Intel, Micron and AMD among the biggest losers. Consumer sentiment data and earnings from Delta and BlackRock are next.

Japan’s 10-year yield fell to 3.03%, tracking lower US yields after strong demand at a 30-year Treasury auction. August consumer spending declined for a ninth month, while BOJ member Ayano Sato supported gradual hikes. PM Takaichi also proposed food tax cuts without issuing new bonds.

The US 10-year yield eased to 5.23%, pulling further away from 24-year highs after a strong 30-year auction. Lower oil prices following Trump’s comments on productive Iran talks offered relief. Traders price an 82% chance of an October Fed hold, although Governor Waller still sees further hikes as likely.

The dollar index eased toward 102 as falling Treasury yields and lower oil prices reduced support for the currency. Strong demand at the US 30-year auction and signs of progress in Iran talks contributed to the decline. Fed expectations stand at an 82% chance of an October hold and 81% probability of a December hike.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Edges Up to 1.1225​

EUR/USD rose 0.13% toward 1.1225 on Friday, attempting to stabilize after touching a 17-month low near 1.1162 earlier this week. Upward momentum remains capped as Fed Governor Waller highlighted resilient U.S. economic strength and stubborn inflation.

Ongoing French fiscal paralysis and widening U.S.-Europe yield spreads continue to weigh on single-currency sentiment.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1250 while the support starts from 1.1180.

Gold Rebounds Past $4,150​

Gold climbed above $4,150 per ounce on Friday, securing a second straight session of gains as lower oil prices and falling bond yields relieved pressure on the metal. Crude pulled back after President Donald Trump noted productive talks with Tehran and ruled out military strikes before the midterms.

Interest rate expectations shifted, with traders pricing an 82% probability of an October Federal Reserve pause alongside an 81% chance of a December rate hike.

First resistance is seen at $4230, with initial support near $4130.

Yen is Under Pressure Near 158​

The Japanese Yen slipped toward 158 per dollar on Friday, heading for a fourth consecutive weekly loss. The currency remains burdened by wide U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials, ultra-low domestic rates, and a high public debt load. Adding to economic headwinds, August household spending dropped for a ninth straight month.

Meanwhile, dovish fiscal policy under Sanae Takaichi and BoJ member Ayano Sato's preference for gradual, cautious rate hikes continue to limit near-term yen support.

First resistance is seen at 158.60, with initial support near 157.50.

GBP/USD Firms Near $1.3240​

The British Pound rose toward $1.3240 on Friday, stabilizing following a volatile multi-week slide. Sterling drew support as Fed Governor Waller's openness to an October rate pause weighed on the dollar, while BoE official Catherine Mann warned UK inflation could retest 4% by year-end.

However, elevated oil prices continue to fuel volatility and cap upside gains.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3270, with support around 1.3190.

Silver Rebounds Above $60​

Silver rebounded above $60 per ounce on Friday, recovering from two-month lows as easing oil prices and retreating Treasury yields lifted non-yielding assets. Crude pulled back after President Trump noted productive talks with Tehran, while strong demand at a 30-year bond auction helped cool yields from recent highs.

Traders currently price an 82% chance of an October Fed rate pause and 81% odds of a December hike.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $61.50, while support is located around $59,25.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude fell toward $103 per barrel, paring Thursday’s gains after Trump cited productive talks with Iran and pledged no strikes before the midterms.

Reports stated that Washington prepared plans for three days of strikes on Iran. Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias forced Gulf of Mexico producers to shut down about 1.3 million barrels per day.

Resistance is seen at 104,50, while the nearest support stands at 101.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq-100 fell 1.39% to 30,726 while chipmakers slid on profit-taking after weaker AI software revenue growth. Futures rose about 0.36% on Friday, attempting to stabilize ahead of the open.

Moderna officially joins the index today, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery.

Resistance stands at 31.200, while the nearest support is located at 30,500.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan rose to about 6.69 per dollar after two steady sessions, as China defended its currency policy with EU trade talks.

EU officials argue the undervalued yuan boosts Chinese exporters and widens the bloc’s over €1 billion daily trade deficit, while the PBOC said exchange rates alone cannot fix global imbalances.

The first resistance stands at 6.7110, while support begins at 6.6910.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin fell 1.9% to around $82,281 as selling pressure intensified. Over $700 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated in 24 hours, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $484.9 million in daily outflows, the largest since June.

A US regulatory crackdown blacklisting 27 entities linked to illicit digital finance also hurt investor sentiment.

Initial resistance sits near 85,400, with support around 79,500.

 

[zForex]

Oil Climbs Again as Gulf Tensions Flare (10.12.2026)​

Brent pushed back above $105 to a two-week high after another attack on Saudi Arabia’s main airport and a fresh tanker strike near the Strait of Hormuz. That outweighed Trump’s Russian diesel deal and the energy ceasefire he says Russia and Ukraine agreed to. A firm dollar, holding near an 18-month high, kept pressure on metals and the euro as markets wait for Wednesday’s US inflation figures.

The euro slipped back below $1.12, close to its 17-month low, as French debt worries lingered. Sterling held steady near $1.323, with markets still pricing a November rate hike from the Bank of England.

Euro Slips Back Below $1.12​

The euro eased to around $1.1175, just above last week’s 17-month low of $1.1161. Investors are still worried about France’s record debt and doubt that a divided parliament will approve the spending cuts in its 2027 budget. Meanwhile, the resilient US economy keeps the dollar supported. Traders now look to Wednesday’s US CPI release and to speeches from eurozone central bankers at the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok this week.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1220 while the support starts from 1.1160.

Gold Eases Toward $4,170​

Gold slipped to around $4,170 per ounce on Monday after touching a one-week high earlier in the session, as a firm dollar weighed on bullion. Investors are cautious ahead of this week’s US consumer and producer price reports and retail sales data. Stronger readings could lift yields and add pressure on the metal. CME FedWatch shows less than a 20% chance of a Fed hike this month, but about 85% odds of a move by December.

First resistance is seen at $4,210, with initial support near $4,140.

Yen Weakens Toward 158.6​

The yen softened to around 158.6 per dollar in quiet trade, with Japan and the US both on holiday. The currency is drifting closer to the 160 mark, the level that triggered official intervention in the past, so traders remain on alert. The wide gap between US and Japanese interest rates and Japan’s heavy debt load continue to weigh on the yen. Markets still expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates again in December or January.

First resistance is seen at 159.20, with initial support near 158.00.

Sterling Steady Near $1.323​

Sterling held around $1.323 after bouncing off three-month lows late last week, helped by calmer bond markets and hawkish comments from Bank of England officials. Chief Economist Huw Pill stressed keeping inflation in check, Megan Greene warned wage growth could reach around 3.5% in 2027, and Governor Andrew Bailey repeated the need to bring inflation back to target. Markets are pricing a November hike, which would make the BoE the last major central bank to start tightening in response to the latest inflation wave.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3300, with support around 1.3180.

Silver Slips Toward $60.6​

Silver edged lower to around $60.6 per ounce as the strong dollar pressured precious metals ahead of key US data. The metal bounced from a two-month low on Friday. However, stronger-than-expected inflation figures this week could revive Fed hike bets and push yields higher, which would limit further upside. Investors will also watch the IMF-World Bank meetings for signals from central bankers.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $61.50, while support is located around $59.80.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent climbed above $105.5 a barrel, its highest level in over two weeks, as security risks in the Middle East flared again. Saudi Arabia’s main airport was targeted again on Sunday, and another tanker was hit near the Strait of Hormuz, even after Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers held talks.

Supply has held up better than feared, with Gulf exports reportedly back to 17.5 million barrels per day, around 98% of pre-war levels. Russia’s planned 500,000 tons of diesel exports is a small fraction of last year’s volumes. The IEA has urged governments to speed up pledged diesel releases ahead of its October 15 meeting.

Resistance is seen at 107.50, while the nearest support stands at 104.00.

NASDAQ 100​

The US 100 closed Friday up 157 points (0.51%) at 30,883, lifting its monthly gain to 6.11% and its annual advance to 27.50%. Futures were flat on Monday, holding near record highs ahead of a busy week of bank earnings. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report on Tuesday.

Trading Economics models still point to a pullback, estimating 30,213 by quarter-end and 28,288 over the next twelve months.

Resistance stands at 31,100, while the nearest support is located at 30,500.

Offshore Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan held around 6.69 per dollar, its strongest level since July 2022. The PBoC set the daily midpoint at 6.7313, the firmest fixing since February 2023.

Resilient exports and bullish calls from Western banks, which see the yuan as undervalued, added support. China and the EU also reached an agreement that could cut Chinese hybrid car exports to the bloc by more than half. Investors now await Chinese inflation and trade data.

The first resistance stands at 6.7000, while support begins at 6.6850.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin slipped 0.5% ($410) to around $83,250 on Monday, giving back part of its weekend gains. It is still up about 8% over the past four weeks, though it remains 27.4% lower year over year.

Trading Economics forecasts a recovery to $85,333 by quarter-end and $93,795 within twelve months.

Initial resistance sits near 85,500, with support around 81,800.

 

[zForex]

Oil and Fed Hike Bets Pressure Metals (10.20.2026)​

Oil prices and rising Treasury yields weighed on precious metals as persistent geopolitical tensions reinforced inflation concerns and expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. Investors also awaited major US corporate earnings for further market direction.

US technology shares and crypto found some relief, recovering ground after a weak stretch. Meta’s third-quarter earnings are the next important test for the sector.

The Fed is still expected to hold rates next week, but the probability of a December hike has reached 94%.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Ticks Up to 1.1230​

EUR/USD climbed 0.15% toward 1.1230 during Tuesday's Asian session, benefiting primarily from broader softness in the US dollar. However, multiple underlying headwinds continue to signal potential downside for the single currency.

Investors remain focused on Meta's upcoming third-quarter earnings report, while ongoing fiscal instability in France alongside persistent Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions keep market sentiment around the euro heavily constrained.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1260 while the support starts from 1.1180.

Gold Drops Toward $4,120​

Gold declined toward $4,120 per ounce on Tuesday, recording its third consecutive loss as sustained high oil prices intensified inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy. A firmer US dollar together with rising Treasury yields added pressure on the non-yielding asset.

Energy markets remained elevated due to ongoing conflict in the Middle East and Eastern Europe alongside Iranian assertions regarding the Strait of Hormuz. While the Federal Reserve is projected to hold rates steady next week, futures markets price approximately a 94% probability of a December rate increase.

First resistance is seen at $4175, with initial support near $4110.

Yen Hovers Near 158.5​

The Japanese yen hovered near 158.5 per dollar on Tuesday following previous session losses, struggling to rebound despite hawkish comments from central bank leadership.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that underlying inflation is approaching the 2% target, sustained by a gradual economic recovery and a tight domestic labor market.

First resistance is seen at 158.60, with initial support near 157.80.

Sterling Steady Above $1.33​

The British pound held steady above $1.33, remaining near its highest level in almost a month as the US dollar retrenched from recent peaks. Remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh provided no clear direction regarding the upcoming FOMC meeting, prompting traders to reduce expectations for a US rate increase next week.

However, market participants slightly raised bets on Bank of England policy tightening, now pricing four quarter-point rate hikes by July, with the initial increase anticipated as soon as November.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3370, with support around 1.3300.

Silver Pulls Back to $57​

Silver dropped toward $57 per ounce on Tuesday, extending its recent pullback as elevated energy costs sparked inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of prolonged monetary tightening. A stronger US dollar and climbing Treasury yields further constrained precious metals.

Oil markets remained firm amid persistent geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, coupled with Iranian claims over the Strait of Hormuz. Although the Federal Reserve is projected to pause next week, investors are pricing in roughly 94% odds of a December rate increase.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $58.20, while support is located around $57.00.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent traded above $109, retaining its recent gains as conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe kept energy supplies under pressure.

Improving shipments from the Persian Gulf offered some relief. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said crude exports had recovered to roughly 80% of pre-war levels, although refined product deliveries were still restricted.

Resistance is seen at 110.50, while the nearest support stands at 107.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index climbed 342 points to 29,545. The recovery brought its four-week gain to 3.08%, while annual performance stood at 17.58%.

Despite these gains, Trading Economics forecasts suggest a decline to 28,572 by quarter-end and 26,801 within a year.

Resistance stands at 29.840, while the nearest support is located at 29,120.

Offshore Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.68 per dollar, its highest since June 2022, marking a fourth consecutive session of gains. Improving economic growth reduced pressure on Beijing to introduce further monetary easing.

The PBoC kept its one-year loan prime rate at 3% and its five-year rate at 3.5%, extending its pause to 17 consecutive meetings, with both rates at record lows.

The first resistance stands at 6.6920, while support begins at 6.6730.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin rose 0.19% to $82,012, extending its four-week gain to 5.28%. Despite the recent improvement, the cryptocurrency is still 24.35% lower year over year.

Trading Economics projects Bitcoin at $83,259 by quarter-end and $91,589 over the next twelve months.

Initial resistance sits near 83,000, with support around 80,500.

 

[zForex]

Inflation Risks Return as Oil Prices Climb (10.21.2026)​

Inflation risks have returned to the center of the macro outlook on October 21 as oil prices climb and Middle East tensions remain unresolved. Brent crude has moved back above $110 after reports of an imminent US-Iran agreement were dismissed, reviving concerns over supply disruptions and keeping energy-driven inflation pressure elevated.

The dollar remains supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume tightening in December. Markets see little chance of a move at the October meeting but assign a high probability to another year-end rate hike as elevated energy costs threaten to slow progress on inflation.

Risk appetite remains cautious, particularly in technology, while China’s surprising 4.5% third-quarter growth provides some support to the broader Asian outlook despite weak domestic demand.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Soft Near 1.1225​

EUR/USD started Wednesday on a weak note around 1.1225. Unrest in France and fiscal concerns continued to weigh on the single currency, with the French-German 10-year yield spread holding near 150 basis points, signaling sustained regional risk sentiment. Although Germany's October ZEW current conditions index exceeded forecasts, the expectations index dropped to 28.1, highlighting a sluggish recovery.

Meanwhile, elevated market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase in December continue to underpin the dollar. Technical indicators remain bearish while price action stays below the key 1.1250 moving averages.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1260 while the support starts from 1.1180.

Gold Slipped Toward $4,100​

Gold slipped toward $4,100 per ounce on Wednesday, recording its fourth consecutive daily decline as rising crude oil prices heightened inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of continued interest rate hikes. Energy prices resumed their upward trajectory after diplomatic officials dismissed reports that an agreement ending the US-Iran conflict was imminent, despite ongoing negotiations.

Escalating geopolitical instability across the Middle East and Eastern Europe, paired with frequent tanker strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, continues to amplify global supply interruption risks.

First resistance is seen at $4155, with initial support near $4080.

Yen Keeps Flat Near 158.2​

The Japanese yen remained steady around 158.2 per dollar on Wednesday as market participants analyzed economic data indicating September exports grew at their slowest pace since April. Despite missing forecasts, export volumes expanded for the 13th consecutive month, driven by solid global demand for semiconductor equipment and artificial intelligence technology.

Regarding monetary policy, the Bank of Japan is broadly anticipated to maintain current interest rates at its upcoming decision next week before implementing a rate hike in December.

First resistance is seen at 158.60, with initial support near 157.80.

Sterling Hits One-Month High​

Sterling rose toward $1.336, reaching its highest level in nearly a month as strong UK employment figures rasied expectations of a Bank of England rate increase next month. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.7% in the three months to August, marking its lowest point since July 2025.

Meanwhile, regular wage growth accelerated to 3.7%, slightly surpassing consensus forecasts and adding to underlying inflationary pressures.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3400, with support around 1.3320.

Silver Eases Toward $57.5​

Silver slipped toward $57.5 per ounce on Wednesday, relinquishing a portion of its recent gains as climbing oil prices renewed inflation concerns and increased expectations for higher interest rates. Crude markets rebounded after diplomatic officials denied reports that a settlement in the US-Iran conflict was near, despite ongoing discussions.

Escalating geopolitical friction across Eastern Europe and the Middle East, along with persistent tanker targeting in the Strait of Hormuz, continues to heighten risk premiums surrounding global energy supplies.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $58.20, while support is located around $57.00.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude climbed above $110 a barrel on Wednesday, picking up its rally again as investors weighed conflicting reports about diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. Prices had dropped sharply on Tuesday after Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, met senior Iranian diplomats and military officials in Tehran to discuss bilateral relations and the state of talks with Washington.

However, a diplomat taking part in the discussions rejected reports that a deal was close, while confirming that efforts to end the conflict are still ongoing.

Resistance is seen at 112.00, while the nearest support stands at 108.30.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded at 29,729 on Wednesday, down 39 points or 0.13% on the day. While the index has declined 3.27% over the past month, it remains up 19.49% year-over-year.

Macroeconomic models and market consensus project the index to decline toward 28,572 by the end of this quarter, with long-term projections pointing to 26,801 over a twelve-month horizon.

Resistance stands at 29.850, while the nearest support is located at 29,470.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin was trading at $82,650 against the US dollar on Wednesday, October 21, down 303 dollars, or 0.37%, from the previous session. It has lost 4.11% over the past four weeks, and its price has fallen 23.26% over the past 12 months.

Trading Economics’ global macro models and analyst expectations project Bitcoin at $83,259 by the end of this quarter and $91,589 in one year.

Initial resistance sits near 83,000, with support around 80,500.

Offshore Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan traded near 6.67 per dollar on Wednesday, remaining near its highest point since June 2022 amid strong export activity and firm daily PBOC fixings. China's economy grew 4.5% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2026, accelerating from a three-year low in Q2 and topping consensus estimates as strong trade performance offset sluggish domestic spending.

Overseas shipments surged 36.3% to USD 447.18 billion in September, marking the fastest expansion in seven months, driven by strong global demand for Chinese high-tech equipment within the expanding AI infrastructure supply chain.

The first resistance stands at 6.6920, while support begins at 6.6730.

 

[zForex]

Tensions Lift Oil and Pressure Metals (10.22.2026)​

Brent crude climbed above $110 after a deadly drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field raised fresh concerns about energy supplies. Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure added to the pressure, threatening Moscow’s plans to expand diesel exports.

Higher oil prices revived inflation fears, pushing gold toward $4,100 despite geopolitical uncertainty. The Fed, ECB and BOJ are expected to hold rates steady next week, although a December Fed hike remains possible.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Edges Above 1.1200​

The euro recorded modest gains above 1.1200, with EUR/USD rising toward 1.1235 during early Asian trading on Thursday. However, broader upside potential remains constrained as widespread anti-government protests in France and ongoing fiscal vulnerabilities continue to generate selling pressure on the shared currency.

Interest rate futures reflect minimal probability of European Central Bank policy tightening at next week's meeting. Market participants are now awaiting scheduled remarks from ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta later today for updated policy guidance.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1260 while the support starts from 1.1180.

Gold Drops Below $4,100​

Gold slipped below $4,100 per ounce on Thursday, reversing previous gains as escalating Middle East conflict pushed crude prices higher and re-ignited inflation concerns. Oil markets rallied following a fatal drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field, prompting partial US embassy evacuations.

While the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan are broadly expected to hold rates unchanged next week, persistent energy-driven inflation keeps market expectations aligned with a potential Fed rate increase in December. Higher interest rate expectations continue to weigh on non-yielding precious metals despite their traditional inflation-hedge status.

First resistance is seen at $4140, with initial support near $4070.

Yen Strengthens Slightly Past 158​

The Japanese yen strengthened slightly past 158 per dollar on Thursday, remaining within a tight range ahead of next week's Bank of Japan decision. Markets broadly anticipate rates staying steady until December, despite persistent inflation. BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino reiterated Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish stance, highlighting that underlying inflation approaches the 2% target and warning against delayed policy action.

Nevertheless, low domestic rates and persistent interest rate differentials with major economies continue to encourage carry trades, suppressing sustained currency gains.

First resistance is seen at 158.40, with initial support near 157.80.

GBP/USD Consolidates Near 1.3400​

GBP/USD consolidated with a positive bias near 1.3400 on Thursday, resting just below multi-week highs. Technically, the pair trades above its 100-day moving average at 1.3389, sandwiched between 38.2% Fibonacci support at 1.3341 and 50% resistance at 1.3404.

This tight range indicates a neutral short-term setup as markets await a directional breakout. An upside push past 1.3404 brings resistance targets at 1.3467, 1.3557, and 1.3672 into view, while a downside break below support highlights 1.3263 and 1.3137 as primary downside risk levels.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3460, with support around 1.3320.

Silver Trades Below $57​

Silver traded below $57 per ounce on Thursday, surrendering recent gains as escalating Middle East friction pushed crude prices higher and renewed inflation fears. Oil markets surged following a fatal drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Shaybah facility, leading to partial US embassy evacuations.

Although the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan are broadly projected to maintain interest rates unchanged next week, persistent energy-driven price pressures keep investors aligned with a potential Fed rate increase in December, keeping downward pressure on precious metal prices.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $57.50, while support is located around $56.00.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent climbed above $110, recovering earlier losses after a drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field killed two people. The attack, followed by a US order for some embassy personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, intensified concerns about regional oil supplies.

In Eastern Europe, Ukrainian drones targeted Russian energy infrastructure, threatening Moscow’s plans to expand diesel exports under the Trump-Putin agreement.

Resistance is seen at 112.00, while the nearest support stands at 108.30.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin declined 1.43% to $82,808, reversing part of its recent recovery. The cryptocurrency has lost 1.88% over the past four weeks and 24.73% over the past year.

Trading Economics projects Bitcoin at $83,259 by quarter-end and $91,589 within twelve months, suggesting a more positive longer-term outlook despite recent weakness.

Initial resistance sits near 83,000, with support around 80,500.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index gained 1.13%, rising to 29,484, extending its four-week advance to 3.24%. The index is also 17.48% higher year over year, reflecting sustained strength in technology shares.

Trading Economics forecasts a pullback to 28,572 by quarter-end and 26,801 within a year, pointing to potential downside despite the recent gains.

Resistance stands at 29.650, while the nearest support is located at 29,150.

Offshore Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan traded near 6.67 per dollar, close to its strongest level since June 2022, supported by solid exports and firmer central bank fixings. China’s economy grew 4.5% year over year in the third quarter, recovering from a three-year low and exceeding forecasts despite weak domestic spending.

September exports surged 36.3% to $447.18 billion, beating expectations of 25.5% and recording their fastest growth in seven months, driven partly by global demand for AI infrastructure and Chinese technology products.

The first resistance stands at 6.6850, while support begins at 6.6700.