FreshForex broker

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for November 26, 2025 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD – Initial Jobless Claims

USDJPY:

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The yen is strengthening on Wednesday, 26 November 2025, following reports that the Bank of Japan is prepared to consider a rate hike as early as December and amid discussions of measures aimed at containing inflation risks. The narrowing of rate‑expectations differentials with the US is reducing the appeal of long USD/JPY positions, while the possibility of official comments on the FX market during a low‑liquidity period is deterring participants from increasing USD/JPY longs.

Additional pressure on the dollar comes from the increased likelihood of Fed easing in December and from soft US data in recent days. Lower US yields and a correction in global risk appetite are reducing the carry premium, which is traditionally negative for the pair.

Key opposing risks are unexpectedly strong US figures or a postponement of expectations for a rate hike in Japan. However, given the current news balance, the base case is for a gradual decline in USD/JPY, making shorts from 155.80 towards 154.90 justified under moderate risk limits.

Trading idea: SELL 155.80, SL 156.10, TP 154.90

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for Novermber 27, 2025 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 4077.14-4127.14, TP1-4177.14, TP2-4303.54.

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• Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The maximum volume cluster of the current contract is located in the 4140.00–4180.00 range. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed within this range, which indicates temporary uncertainty. XAUUSD: BUY 4077.14-4127.14, TP1-4177.14, TP2-4303.54.

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• Medium-term trend: upward. The maximum volume cluster of the medium-term trend is located in the 4130.00-4145.00 range. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed above this range, which indicates buyer strength.

• The area of favorable buying prices from the standpoint of margin provision is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the 26.11.2025 high.

• Quotation of the upper boundary of the 1/4 zone – 4127.14.

• Quotation of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone – 4077.14.

• Intraday targets: renewal of the 26.11.2025 highs – 4177.14.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the NKZ – 4303.54. XAUUSD: BUY 4077.14-4127.14, TP1-4177.14, TP2-4303.54.

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• Trading recommendations: buying from the favorable-price range upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

• Buy: 4077.14-4127.14, Take Profit 1–4177.14, Take Profit 2–4303.54.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for November 28, 2025 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:

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Sterling is holding just above 1.31, but momentum has faded: after the budget releases, the debate over the medium-term sustainability of the UK’s public finances and weak productivity remains central. The Bank of England’s messaging allows for a prolonged hold at current rates amid cooling domestic demand, which limits the currency’s room to strengthen. Fresh assessments point to a fragile labor market and pressure on real household incomes.

The external backdrop is also unfriendly to a sustained GBP rise: with uncertainty around the Fed path persisting, the dollar is supported by quality flows, while the yield differential remains unfavorable for the UK currency. In addition, risk sentiment is choppy on global headlines and noise, which traditionally boosts demand for USD during risk-off episodes.

Given the mix of domestic and external factors, the pair is vulnerable to a downside correction: if risk appetite softens and BoE expectations are repriced, a return toward 1.30 looks likely. A tactical sell from 1.3145 with a stop at 1.3195 and a target at 1.2995 is preferred—these parameters reflect current volatility and allow the scenario of renewed dollar demand on adverse news to play out.

Trade idea: SELL 1.3145, SL 1.3195, TP 1.2995

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 5 December 2025​

XAUUSD: BUY 4220.00, SL 4175.00, TP 4355.00

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Gold enters the week at elevated levels, with demand for safe-haven assets supported by a softer dollar and a high probability of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. Lower U.S. Treasury yields and broader expectations of easier credit conditions in the United States reduce the opportunity cost of holding the metal. Additional support comes from steady official-sector purchases and inflows into gold-linked products, while sentiment across equity markets remains mixed and keeps interest in defensive assets intact.

At the start of the week, spot prices hold above $4,200 per ounce and the news backdrop remains favorable: markets are pricing a strong chance of a December cut and responding to swings in the dollar. Over the short horizon the balance of drivers stays constructive: the combination of easier-policy expectations, a weak dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty supports demand for gold and allows room for further gains after measured pullbacks.

Trade recommendation: BUY 4220.00, SL 4175.00, TP 4355.00

#SP500: BUY 6820, SL 6710, TP 7050

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U.S. equities begin the week near record highs, remaining sensitive to Federal Reserve communication and the macro data flow. Expectations of policy easing in December support the valuation of future earnings and discount rates, which benefits rate-sensitive sectors and areas tied to investment cycles, including AI-related spending. While a mildly negative tone in parts of Asia and some company-specific headlines linger, they do not alter the broadly constructive view on U.S. corporate profitability.

The index also benefits from a lower premium on dollar liquidity and stabilizing inflation expectations, which bolster risk appetite and encourage allocations into broad benchmarks. Risks stem from unexpectedly firm central-bank messaging and any reassessment of the earnings trajectory, yet under a base case of a gentle Fed stance and neutral data, demand for equities remains resilient through the week.

Trade recommendation: BUY 6820, SL 6710, TP 7050

#BRENT: BUY 62.50, SL 60.00, TP 67.50

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Brent starts the week firmer after signals from producer alliances about maintaining current output parameters and amid headlines of localized supply disruptions. The market is shifting attention from prior oversupply concerns to logistics and export risks, which reintroduces a risk premium into prices. Expectations of a softer U.S. policy stance also improve the broader environment for commodities by supporting risk sentiment and growth-sensitive assets.

Looking ahead, the medium-term path will hinge on U.S. demand and inventory prints, as well as updated balances from the major agencies. For now, the mix of stable producer policy, episodic news about infrastructure and transport, and a weaker dollar creates conditions for a gradual recovery in prices beyond current levels, while volatility may remain elevated around data releases.

Trade recommendation: BUY 62.50, SL 60.00, TP 67.50

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