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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for October 28, 2025 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: SELL 114000, SL 116000, TP 90000

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The situation in Bitcoin remains structurally consistent. The price has continued rising, reaching an intermediate resistance level — the previous local high formed after a sharp drop and rebound.

This level presents a good opportunity to initiate the next impulsive decline. Additionally, a fully formed and complete zigzag pattern is now clearly visible.

Thus, in the near term, there is a high probability of an impulsive decline driven by wave 3 of the downward impulse.

Therefore, it is recommended to start selling at current market levels.

Investment idea: SELL 114000, SL 116000, TP 90000.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for October 29, 2025 GBPUSD​

Event to pay attention today:

20:00 EET. USD - FOMC decision on the key interest rate

GBPUSD:

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Sterling softens against the dollar ahead of the Fed decision as some investors take profit after recent attempts to rally. The U.S. market still anticipates a 25 bps rate cut, but the dollar’s intraday recovery into the meeting weighs on GBPUSD.


Domestic drivers for the pound are mixed. Recent UK inflation data came in softer than forecast, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will approach policy with greater caution and limiting GBP upside. Budget and borrowing headlines earlier in the year also added volatility, keeping the pair around 1.33 and below at times.

Also yesterday, the prevailing assessment was that the GBP/USD upside momentum was unstable and largely dependent on external drivers—the US dollar exchange rate and expectations for further Fed easing. Under these conditions, selling on a rise toward 1.3275, with an eye on a return to 1.3200, should the Fed remain neutral or moderately cautious, makes strategic sense.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3265, SL 1.3285, TP 1.3200

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Analysis of margin levels for October 30, 2025 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 3939.15-3989.15, TP1-3889.15, TP2-3762.85.

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• Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 3338.00–3383.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are being made above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers. XAUUSD: SELL 3939.15-3989.15, TP1-3889.15, TP2-3762.85.

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• Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 4095.00–4110.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates the strength of sellers.

• The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the low of 28.10.2025.

• The lower border of zone 1/4 is quoted at 3939.15.

• The lower limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 3989.15.

• Intraday targets: updating the lows from 28.10.2025–3889.15.

• Medium-term targets: test the lower boundary of SNKZ-3762.85. XAUUSD: SELL 3939.15-3989.15, TP1-3889.15, TP2-3762.85.

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• Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Sell: 3939.15-3989.15, Take Profit 1–3889.15, Take Profit 2–3762.85.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for October 31, 2025 EURUSD​

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1570–1.1580 after this week’s major central-bank decisions. On October 29, the Fed cut the policy rate by 0.25 pp while indicating that further easing in December is not guaranteed and announcing an end to balance-sheet reduction from December 1. This combination of a cautious tone and the halt to “tightening via the balance sheet” was largely priced in and failed to deliver durable support to risk currencies, while U.S. Treasury yields remain relatively elevated. That backdrop sustains demand for the dollar and caps euro rebounds.

For the euro, the lack of fresh stimulus from the ECB is a key factor: on October 30 the central bank left its rate unchanged, and recent surveys and business-activity indicators point to a gradual recovery rather than an acceleration strong enough to flip the rate differential with the U.S. in the euro’s favor. As a result, the near-term fundamental balance for the pair is tilted toward moderate downside.

Additional risks in global trade and tariff uncertainty support defensive demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation indicators (PCE) are broadly in line with expectations, keeping the debate alive about a pause after the Fed’s October move. Together these inputs favor a pullback in EURUSD from current levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1575, SL 1.1625, TP 1.1500

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