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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for December 23, 2025 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 4397.92-4447.92, TP1-4497.92, TP2-4599.92.

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• Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 4190.00–4225.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.

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• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 4200.00-4220.00 and 4315.00-4335.00. Currently, investment transactions are being made on XAUUSD above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.

• The area of favorable purchase prices from the point of view of margin collateral is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 23.12.2025.

• Quote for the upper limit of zone 1/4 – 4447.92.

• Quote for the upper limit of zone 1/2 – 4397.92.

• Intraday targets: update of highs from 23.12.2025 – 4497.92.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of SNKZ-4599.92. XAUUSD: BUY 4397.92-4447.92, TP1-4497.92, TP2-4599.92.

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• Trading recommendations: buy from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 4397.92–4447.92, Take Profit 1–4497.92, Take Profit 2–4599.92.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for December 24, 2025 EURUSD​

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

EURUSD:

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On 24 December 2025, EUR/USD is holding near 1.1800, while the US dollar remains under pressure: the market is pricing in continued Fed rate cuts in 2026, even after strong US GDP growth in the third quarter. A weaker tone in consumer surveys adds to the picture, and the pre-holiday week with reduced liquidity increases the pair’s sensitivity to any headlines.

On the euro side, support comes from the European Central Bank’s steadier stance after the 18 December decision to keep rates unchanged and revise growth and inflation projections higher. This reduces the likelihood of near-term easing in the euro area and helps maintain interest in European assets against the backdrop of the euro’s notable strengthening through 2025.

Today’s focus is US initial jobless claims and any signals about the 2026 rate path. If expectations of easing in the US persist and there are no new reasons for rate cuts in the euro area, the balance remains in favour of the euro, so the base scenario is to buy the pair.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1800, SL 1.1770, TP 1.1890

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for December 26, 2025 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:​

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GBP/USD is trading around 1.3515, supported by broad US dollar weakness in a thin market after the Christmas holidays. Market participants continue to assess the outlook for US monetary policy: expectations of lower rates in 2026 and uncertainty around the Fed’s next steps keep interest in the dollar subdued.

Fundamentally, the pound looks resilient after the Bank of England’s latest decision to cut the rate to 3.75% on a very close vote. This configuration suggests that further easing will be limited and data-dependent, which supports the yield appeal of UK assets. The market was also helped by updated economic estimates: revised third-quarter growth and improved external income reduced fears of a sharp slowdown.

In the near term, the key factor remains the balance between the pace of inflation cooling in the UK and rate expectations in the US. As long as the market believes a rate cut is more likely in the US than in the UK, the pair retains upside potential. In this environment, preference is for buying the pound against the dollar from current levels.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3515, SL 1.3495, TP 1.3595

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 2 January 2025​

XAUUSD: BUY 4475.00, SL 4465.00, TP 4550.00​

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Gold starts the week near $4,470 per ounce: demand is supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts in 2026 and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Investors are also watching the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting and fresh U.S. data.

If the minutes confirm the regulator’s readiness to ease policy as inflation slows, interest in safe-haven assets may strengthen. A key risk for prices is a sharp rise in government bond yields and a stronger dollar on upbeat data.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4475.00, SL 4465.00, TP 4550.00

#SP500: BUY 6930, SL 6910, TP 7080​

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The S&P 500 ends the year near record levels around 6,930 points, while the new week is expected to be quiet due to the holidays. The focus is on the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting and a set of U.S. housing and business-activity indicators.

A positive driver for the market is expectations of cheaper borrowing and solid corporate earnings forecasts for 2026. A restraining factor is the risk that the minutes signal Fed caution and trigger a reassessment of rate expectations.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6930, SL 6910, TP 7080

#BRENT: BUY 61.00, SL 60.70, TP 63.70​

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Brent crude is holding near $61 per barrel: the market is reacting to news around talks on Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, which increase the risk of supply disruptions. Prices are also supported by a seasonal pickup in demand at year-end.

At the same time, concerns about oversupply in 2026 remain, limiting the upside. This week, attention will be on U.S. oil inventory data and statements from major producers about production plans.

Trading recommendation: BUY 61.00, SL 60.70, TP 63.70

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for December 31, 2025 EURUSD​

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD is ending the year around 1.1740–1.1750 amid thin holiday trading. The euro is holding firm after a strong 2025, but at current levels profit-taking and year-end portfolio rebalancing are becoming more noticeable, which supports short-term demand for the US dollar.

The key driver today is US rate expectations. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting showed meaningful differences among policymakers after the rate cut to the 3.50–3.75% range, while updated projections point to a more cautious pace of further moves in 2026. This setup limits downside pressure on the dollar and makes the pair more sensitive to any signals on inflation and the labour market.

On the euro area side, the pair faces headwinds from a more restrained monetary-policy path: the ECB kept key rates unchanged on 18 December, and markets interpret this as a shift toward a pause as inflation gradually normalises. In low-liquidity conditions, even small changes in expectations for the rate differential can trigger a pullback in EUR/USD from recent levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1740, SL 1.1770, TP 1.1650

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for January 2, 2025 GBPUSD​

Event to pay attention to today:

11:30 EET. GBP - Manufacturing PMI Index

16:45 EET. USD - Manufacturing Business Activity Index

GBPUSD:

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GBP/USD is trading around 1.3480, keeping part of the gains after a strong 2025 for the pound and a weaker dollar. With liquidity still thin in the first business days of the year, headlines can have an outsized impact, so short-term swings may be sharper than usual even with a light macro calendar.

The main driver for the dollar remains expectations for the Fed’s policy trajectory in 2026 and the broader debate around future central-bank guidance. If incoming U.S. data on the labor market and inflation confirms the economy’s resilience, traders may scale back bets on rapid rate cuts, supporting the dollar and triggering a corrective move lower in GBP/USD.

For the pound, risks are linked to the Bank of England having already moved into rate cuts while keeping a cautious stance, balancing inflation against weak growth. The market also watches the state of public finances and business activity in the UK: weaker confidence typically lifts demand for the dollar as a reserve currency. Under these conditions, a decline from current levels looks more likely.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3480, SL 1.3510, TP 1.3390

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 09 January 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 4415.50, SL 4380.00, TP 4522.00​

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Gold starts the week near 4415.50 per ounce: thin trading at the beginning of the year has amplified reactions to news from Venezuela and broader geopolitical tension, lifting demand for safe-haven assets. Support also comes from expectations of lower US interest rates in 2026 and continued buying by central banks.

For the week of January 5–9, the focus is on US data on business activity and the labor market, with the key event being Friday’s jobs report. Weaker figures could strengthen interest in gold, while strong numbers may boost the dollar and cool the market temporarily.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4415.50, SL 4380.00, TP 4522.00

#SP500: BUY 6858, SL 6778, TP 7098​

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The #SP500 is holding around 6858 at the start of the first full week of 2026: investors are weighing geopolitics and oil, but the main guide remains expectations for US interest rates. After a strong finish to 2025, the market enters the week with a cautious tone.

The week of January 5–9 is packed with US statistics, with Friday’s employment report as the highlight. Moderate data would support equities through hopes of lower borrowing costs, while a surprise rise in inflation expectations and yields could increase pressure on the stock market.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6858, SL 6778, TP 7098

#BRENT: SELL 60.43, SL 62.10, TP 55.40​

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#BRENT is trading near 60.43 per barrel: news around Venezuela has added sharp swings, but the market sees no major supply disruptions for now. OPEC+ is keeping current output settings, and talk of potential supply growth ahead is capping prices.

For the week of January 5–9, the spotlight is on demand signals via US statistics and updates from China, as well as the regular US inventory figures. If demand stays soft and the dollar strengthens, oil risks sliding; however, tighter sanctions or logistical disruptions could quickly restore support.

Trading recommendation: SELL 60.43, SL 62.10, TP 55.40

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for January 06, 2026 BTCUSD.​

BTCUSD: BUY 94500, SL 93000, TP 103000

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The situation in Bitcoin continues to develop according to the previously considered wave scenario. The price is doing its best to move higher, apparently developing the third wave within the forming bullish impulse.

At the moment, this wave still does not look completed. For this reason, a continuation of the upward price movement is expected in the near future. Accordingly, previously opened long positions should be kept in play, and new ones may be opened if possible.

Investment idea: BUY 94500, SL 93000, TP 103000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for January 7, 2025 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:​

15:15 EET. USD – ADP Employment Change

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY is holding around 156.65 amid expectations for U.S. labor-market statistics and mixed signals on monetary policy in the two countries. For the dollar, the key is data that can confirm or refute the scenario of further Fed rate cuts in 2026: if the market sees signs of cooling employment, pressure on the dollar will increase.

On the Japan side, attention is focused on the prospect of a gradual tightening of Bank of Japan policy in 2026. Even cautious steps toward rate hikes narrow the yield gap and increase the yen’s attractiveness, especially during periods of elevated uncertainty in global markets. Under these conditions, the potential for further USD/JPY upside may be limited.

An additional source of risk remains rising tensions in Asia: tighter export restrictions between China and Japan increase nervousness and may boost demand for the yen as a safe-haven currency. If, at the same time, U.S. data come in weaker than forecasts, the pair would have grounds to decline. Strong U.S. statistics, on the other hand, would temporarily support the dollar and slow the yen’s strengthening.

Trading recommendation: SELL 156.65, SL 156.85, TP 155.75

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[Fresh Forex]

Crypto is charging higher again: BTCUSD and the pack are ready to run​

In December, our clients most actively traded cryptocurrencies such as BTCUSD, ETHUSD, BNBUSD, SOLUSD, and XRPUSD—and these instruments delivered the highest share of profitable trades. Today’s review focuses on the crypto market: demand from major investors, news from large corporations, and the ongoing development of leading blockchain platforms are setting the tone for early 2026.

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Growth outlook for cryptocurrencies in Q1 2026:

• BTCUSD — strong interest from institutional investors and the expansion of exchange-traded crypto products support demand even during pullbacks.
• ETHUSD — increasing network usage and progress toward faster, cheaper transfers create room for strengthening in a calm external environment.
• SOLUSD — active project development and rising attention from major market participants point to further upside potential if news remains positive.
• BNBUSD — ecosystem service growth and infrastructure upgrades provide support, though price moves may be sharp.
• TONUSD — expansion of Telegram-related services and user tools may drive additional demand if adoption momentum continues.

FreshForex analysts believe that in the coming months the market will be shaped by three key factors: overall global market sentiment, inflows and outflows into public crypto instruments, and news around the development of major networks. Even under a positive scenario, prudent risk limits should be set in advance.

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 16 January 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 4570.00, SL 4540.00, TP 4660.00​

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Gold starts the week near $4,570 per ounce, holding close to record highs amid stronger demand for safe-haven assets. Support comes from rising geopolitical tensions and a softer US dollar as investors reassess the stability of US monetary policy.

Over the coming days, the main driver will be US inflation data and the Fed’s messaging: if price growth remains moderate, expectations of rate cuts should keep gold in demand. A sharp jump in government bond yields could cap gains, but ongoing buying by central banks continues to provide a fundamental cushion.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4570.00, SL 4540.00, TP 4660.00

#SP500: BUY 6970, SL 6940, TP 7060​

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The S&P 500 begins the week near 6,966 after setting fresh record highs. Sentiment is supported by expectations of resilient corporate earnings, but the market has become more sensitive to Fed-related headlines and potential political and legal risks in the US.

Key focal points this week are US inflation data and the start of the earnings season for major banks and technology companies. Softer inflation and strong results may sustain demand for equities, while higher inflation and a new wave of uncertainty could increase caution and temporarily cool risk appetite.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6970, SL 6940, TP 7060

#BRENT: SELL 63.40, SL 64.00, TP 61.60​

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Brent starts the week around $63.39 per barrel: geopolitical risks in the Middle East add a premium, but the market is not yet pricing in serious supply disruptions. At the same time, attention is growing around a potential recovery of Venezuelan exports.

Over the week ahead, pressure comes from expectations of excess supply in 2026 and cautious demand estimates. Support could appear if there are signs of production cuts or new restrictions on supply from major producers, but without such news the balance of factors still favors a modest decline in Brent.

Trading recommendation: SELL 63.40, SL 64.00, TP 61.60

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[Fresh Forex]

New XAUUSD Records — $4,600!​

Over the past month, gold against the US dollar (XAUUSD) has gained more than 10%, rising from around $4,170 per ounce to new all-time highs above $4,600. The rally is unfolding amid expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, a weaker US dollar, and a surge in demand for safe-haven assets. FreshForex analysts previously pointed to the upside potential driven by central bank activity — and this factor remains one of the key drivers.

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Five growth drivers:

1. The Fed is cutting rates. Yields on deposits and bonds are declining, making gold more attractive.
2. The dollar is weakening. When the USD falls, gold priced in dollars usually rises, while also serving as protection against USD depreciation.
3. Heightened global tensions. Conflicts and political risks increase market anxiety and boost demand for safe-haven assets — primarily gold.
4. Central banks are actively buying gold. Steady demand from governments supports prices and reduces the risk of deep pullbacks.
5. Capital inflows into gold funds + the record-high effect. At historical highs, new buyers enter the market, reinforcing the trend.

Gold remains one of the main beneficiaries of an era of elevated uncertainty. FreshForex analysts note that in 2026, the asset is worth considering for purchases — but with strict risk management. It is crucial to closely monitor Fed decisions, dollar dynamics, geopolitical flare-ups, and flows into precious metals funds. On a strong market, local pullbacks can often be viewed as opportunities for more cautious re-entry — provided there is discipline and clear stop-loss control.

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[Fresh Forex]

Murray's level analysis from 15 January 2026​

BTCUSD: BUY 94500, S/L 912000, TP 97000

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Four-hour BTC/USD chart. The price broke through the level (+2/8) and we saw another redrawing of Murray levels. Currently, the price is near the reversal level (7/8). We see a pullback forming from the weekly supertrend line. Against this backdrop, we expect the price to decline to the four-hour supertrend line.

Trading decision: BUY 94500, S/L 912000, TP 97000

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for January 16, 2025 EURUSD​

Event to pay attention to today:

16:15 EET. USD - Industrial Production Volume Change

EURUSD:

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​

EUR/USD on Friday, January 16, 2026, is trading near 1.1610, but the single currency’s position remains fragile. The US dollar is supported by strong US data and fading expectations of near-term policy easing: the market is increasingly pricing in a longer period of high rates, which keeps demand for the dollar steady from investors and companies hedging currency risks.

The backdrop for the euro is mixed. The European Central Bank emphasizes its readiness to keep rates at current levels as long as inflation stays close to target and no new shocks emerge. At the same time, a stronger dollar and competition in external markets weigh on the region’s export outlook, while talk of possible turbulence in global markets periodically brings back interest in the dollar as a safe-haven currency.

Over the day, the key driver remains US releases and commentary: any signs that inflation pressure is holding up will work against EUR/USD. The euro could find support if euro area data improves confidence in sustainable growth, but in the base case market participants remain inclined to hold dollars, increasing the likelihood of a moderate decline in the pair.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1615, SL 1.1635, TP 1.1525

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[Fresh Forex]

Winter target: gold $5,000 and silver $100!​

FreshForex analysts emphasize: the winter targets of $5,000 for gold (XAUUSD) and $100 for silver (XAGUSD) already look achievable: quotes have closely approached key psychological levels. As of January 21, 2026, gold is holding above $4,850, and on January 20, silver set a new record, rising to $96.

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5 reasons why the market could reach $5,000 and $100 this winter:
1. The Fed is easing → rates may fall → metals will become more profitable in an investor's portfolio.
2. The dollar is weakening → gold and silver are rising amid currency pressure.
3. Markets are uneasy → investors are moving to safe havens amid rising uncertainty.
4. Silver is catching up with gold → silver often rises faster during periods of strong momentum.
5. Industrial demand is growing → silver is supported by technology and energy.

Gold (XAUUSD) is being used as a safe haven, while silver (XAGUSD) is further supporting industrial demand, hence the potential for faster growth.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for January 23, 2026 EURUSD​

Event to pay attention to today:

11:00 EET. EUR - Business Activity Index in the Services Sector

16:45 EET. USD - PMI Index for the Services Sector

EURUSD:

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​

The EURUSD pair shows moderate strengthening of the euro against the US dollar, reflecting the weakness of the American currency amid expectations of key macroeconomic data from the United States. Investors remain cautious while assessing growth prospects and inflation dynamics, which reduces demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Additional support for the euro comes from relative stability in the eurozone’s economic indicators and the absence of new negative signals from European regulators.

Fundamental pressure on the US dollar is increasing due to expectations of possible monetary policy easing in the United States in the medium term. Market participants are pricing in a slowdown in economic activity, which limits the potential for dollar appreciation. Against this backdrop, the euro appears more resilient, especially given that the European Central Bank has recently shown no urgency to adjust its policy stance.

At the same time, the pair remains sensitive to incoming US economic data. Stronger-than-expected indicators of economic activity or inflation could temporarily support the dollar and trigger a correction in EURUSD. In the base scenario, the balance of risks remains tilted in favor of the euro, allowing for further upward movement of the pair within the current fundamental environment.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1750, SL 1.1710, TP 1.1830

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