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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 22, 2025 USDJPY​

USDJPY:

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The Japanese yen (JPY) is starting the new week on a weaker note and looks set to continue its decline from Wednesday's high since July 7 amid a general strengthening of the US dollar (USD). The initial market reaction to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to keep rates unchanged on Friday was short-lived amid uncertainty over the likely timing and pace of rate hikes. This, coupled with the overall positive sentiment in the stock markets, is undermining the yen's position as a safe-haven currency.

Meanwhile, expectations that the Bank of Japan will stick to its policy normalization course contrast sharply with signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that there will be two more rate cuts before the end of the year. This, in turn, could be a headwind for the US dollar and provide some support for the lower-yielding Japanese yen. In this regard, it is advisable to wait for further buying before placing new bets on the USD/JPY pair and positioning for further appreciation.

Trade recommendation: BUY 148.55, SL 148.20, TP 149.15

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for 23 September 2025 XAUUSD​

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• Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 3330.00–3360.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are being made above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers. XAUUSD: BUY 3680.04-3720.04, TP1-3760.04, TP2-3878.34.

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• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 3640.00-3655.00. Currently, investment transactions are being carried out above this range for XAUUSD, which indicates the strength of buyers.

• The area of favourable purchase prices from the point of view of margin requirements is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 23.09.2025.

• Quote for the upper limit of zone 1/4 – 3720.04.

• Quote for the upper limit of zone 1/2 – 3680.04.

• Intraday targets: update of highs from 23.09.2025 – 3760.04.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of ZNKZ-3878.34.XAUUSD: BUY 3680.04-3720.04, TP1-3760.04, TP2-3878.34.

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• Trading recommendations: buy from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 3680.04–3720.04, Take Profit 1–3760.04, Take Profit 2–3878.34.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 24, 2025 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - New Home Sales

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD holds near 1.18 amid a mix of more cautious Federal Reserve signals and signs of a gradual recovery in euro area business activity. Markets are pricing the Fed’s first step toward policy easing in a year alongside messages about proceeding carefully, which reduces the dollar’s appeal while Treasury yields remain broadly steady. The euro is supported by fresh flash PMIs: the composite index for the region improved, even if the picture remains uneven across countries. At the same time, the ECB kept rates unchanged at its September meeting and indicated that the pace of any further changes will depend on the inflation path and domestic demand.

In the United States, “fast” indicators point to slower business momentum, while price pressures—still above target—look more contained. This strengthens expectations for a moderate Fed rate-cut cycle by year-end. In this setup, the balance of yield differentials and policy expectations tilts slightly toward the euro, especially if incoming U.S. data continue to confirm cooling growth.

Key risks for EUR/USD buyers are U.S. inflation and employment releases: any upside surprises could revive demand for the dollar. On the euro side, vulnerabilities include German industrial weakness and stagnating new orders. Nevertheless, for the current week the balance of factors looks neutral-to-positive for the pair, supporting tactical buys from the 1.18 area.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1805, SL 1.1775, TP 1.1860

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for September 25, 2025 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: SELL 110750, SL 112000, TP 100000.

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The further decline in Bitcoin’s value turned out to be disjointed. Buyers started to strengthen their resistance, and the movement slowed down. However, an impulsive wave was still formed. It seems that this impulse is part of a larger impulsive structure, the development of which we have yet to see.

In the near future, we are likely to see a small corrective rise. Trading this small rise is a risky endeavour, so it’s better to skip it and wait for an opportunity to enter new sell trades within the development of the following impulsive waves.

The signal to open such positions may be the update of the current local low.

Investment idea: SELL 110750, SL 112000, TP 100000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 26, 2025 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index

GBPUSD:

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Sterling is under pressure from a mix of external and domestic factors. Externally, the dollar is firming on the back of fresh US statistics and higher Treasury yields. Domestically, UK fiscal risk is in focus: investors are cautious around gilts and upcoming budget decisions, limiting demand for the pound and increasing the pair’s sensitivity to US releases.

UK business activity data point to a softer impulse in manufacturing and services, while real household incomes remain constrained. The Bank of England is seeking to keep inflation on track toward target and is acting carefully, avoiding signals of rapid easing—keeping borrowing costs relatively high for an economy where growth momentum is fragile. Taken together, this narrows the space for medium-term sterling strength and encourages investors to hedge via the dollar.

Demand for safe and higher-yielding dollar assets persists, while the pound stays vulnerable to surprises in fiscal headlines and long-dated yields. With neutral/strong US data, the pair typically drifts lower; in focus are the resilience of US consumer spending and the direction of inflation, which shape rate expectations for the Fed and, in turn, the dollar’s path.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3350, SL 1.3370, TP 1.3260

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 29, 2025 USDJPY​

Event to pay attention today:

17:00 EET. USD – Pending Home Sales Change

USDJPY:

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The key theme for USDJPY today is Tokyo inflation, which the market often treats as an early indicator of Japan’s nationwide CPI. More persistent price growth increases the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will maintain a cautious readiness for gradual normalization, while the authorities keep a close watch on the yen’s exchange rate. Against this backdrop, investors’ propensity to take profit on long USDJPY positions is rising.

At the same time, dollar moves are driven by U.S. headlines: at the start of the week, some participants hedge the risk of data delays amid budget uncertainty, which periodically softens the USD and supports the yen. If Tokyo’s inflation profile surprises to the upside, the theme of a “real” strengthening of the yen via JGB yields and BoJ policy expectations will gain additional traction.

Near the 149.00 area, the short-term risk/reward favors a partial pullback in the pair: a possible pause in the dollar’s rise combined with CPI-sensitive expectations in Japan creates a window for a correction toward 148.00.

Trading recommendation: SELL 149.00, SL 149.20, TP 148.10

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[Fresh Forex]

$4,000 per ounce – the golden target is almost here!​

Since the start of 2025, gold (XAUUSD) has been on a strong upward trend, gaining around $1,200 per ounce (+45%). By September 30, prices surged to an all-time high of $3,867 per ounce. This momentum is setting ambitious price targets and keeping the metal near historic levels. Amid shifting rate expectations and rising demand for safe-haven assets, platinum (XPTUSD) is also on the rise, holding above key levels and signaling renewed investor interest in precious metals.

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Back in April, FreshForex analysts predicted gold would hit $4,000 per ounce — at the time, the price had just broken above $3,300. Less than six months later, gold has repeatedly set new all-time highs!

4 key drivers of the rally:

• A dovish Fed and weaker USD. The market is pricing in more rate cuts — lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold. A softer dollar also makes the metal more attractive to international buyers.
• Demand for safe havens. Rising global uncertainty (including risks of a U.S. government shutdown) is pushing capital into traditional shelters like gold — and records tend to be set during such events.
• Central bank buying. For the third year in a row, official sector demand remains strong — especially from emerging market regulators — cushioning pullbacks and creating a firm price floor.
• ETF inflows. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds are accumulating reserves, boosting investment demand and locking in higher price levels.

As financial conditions ease, uncertainty stays high, and institutional demand holds strong, gold remains a key asset for conservative strategies. While short-term corrections are possible, the upward trend is likely to continue unless core fundamentals reverse. FreshForex analysts believe the $4,000 mark will be crossed soon, and prices could reach $4,200 per ounce by year-end!

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for October 2, 2025 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: SELL 114200, SL 114800, TP 111900.

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After a fairly sharp rise, sellers attempted to exert significant pressure on the price. At first, everything went well, and the price began to fall, but at a certain point, active buying resumed, leading to a return of the price to its initial level.

Despite this, the current situation continues to be viewed as a zigzag correction. A slight decline is expected in the near future, followed by growth. In this case, we will see the formation of a simple zigzag. There is also the possibility of more protracted growth, but without updating the historical maximum. In this case, the projected wave [ii] will ‘move’ slightly to the right. However, this scenario also implies a sharp decline in the future.

In this situation, quick sales at current price levels can be considered.

Investment idea: SELL 114200, SL 114800, TP 111900.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 3, 2025 EURUSD​

Event to pay attention today:

11:00 EET. EUR - Composite PMI Index

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

16:45 EET. USD - Composite PMI Index

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD trades around 1.1720–1.1730 early Friday. The market is digesting the continuation of the U.S. federal agencies’ shutdown, which delays official macro data releases. Private labor-market gauges for September point to slower hiring, yet overall demand for the dollar remains supported: investors retain interest in the U.S. currency amid uncertainty over the budget and the timing of the next Federal Reserve rate cut. In this mix of factors, the euro is losing upside momentum and short-lived rallies tend to fade.

In the euro area, participants track consumer prices and activity estimates—soft inflation and business readings offer little reason to expect faster GDP growth in the autumn. Against this backdrop, the scope for euro appreciation looks limited: the U.S.–Germany yield gap remains notable, while the ECB’s communication is cautious regarding further policy loosening, with the central bank preferring to wait for a steady cooling in prices without undermining demand.

On the U.S. side, rate expectations are the key lever: futures price in a chance of a cut already in October and a continued path toward looser policy by year-end. However, the lack of official publications during the budget pause shifts attention to alternative indicators and Fed commentary, which together support defensive demand for the dollar and keep EURUSD below recent September highs.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1725, SL 1.1755, TP 1.1660

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[Fresh Forex]

Bitcoin hits all-time high, altcoins follow suit!​

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has smashed a new all-time high, reaching $125,700! The rally is fueled by steady inflows into spot ETFs, rising institutional interest, expectations of a softer Fed policy, and growing demand for safe-haven assets. Additional tailwinds include tech upgrades across networks and a revival in trading activity. This historic milestone for Bitcoin has lifted the entire crypto market. Investors are turning their attention back to top-10 altcoins — names with strong recognition, loyal communities, and clear development roadmaps.

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Ethereum (ETHUSD) — trading around $4,558.76. The network has undergone major upgrades, making wallets more user-friendly and transactions faster and more stable. Layer-2 solutions are gaining traction, fees are becoming more predictable, and the network load is better distributed. As a result, investor interest in ETH-based tools and its ecosystem continues to grow. If Ethereum’s roadmap stays on schedule, it could further strengthen its position as the go-to platform for decentralized applications.

Solana (SOLUSD) — around $233.30. The ecosystem is preparing a high-performance validator module aimed at significantly boosting speed and resilience. This is critical for high-traffic use cases like exchanges, gaming, and micro-payment services. Solana is also set to gain the spotlight during a major industry conference later this year — a typical launchpad for new partnerships, grants, and product announcements. If improvements are implemented successfully, Solana could gain more ground in the fast and low-cost transactions segment.

BNB (BNBUSD) — approximately $1,208.83. The network continues to cut costs for users and developers, expand its toolkit for launching apps, and maintain price stability through regular supply control. The easier it becomes to build and scale on BNB Chain, the greater the volume — and the stronger the token demand. With security and performance updates expected on schedule, BNB remains a top-tier infrastructure asset.

FreshForex analysts believe Bitcoin’s record high reaffirms the global appetite for digital assets, while strong developments across major altcoins add depth and resilience to the market. Q4 2025 could deliver solid returns for active buyers — with the most powerful surge expected in Q1 2026. Don’t miss the moment — fund your account now with the best-in-class 202% bonus using promo code TOPUP25 and start earning!

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 8, 2025 GBPUSD​

Event to pay attention today:

21:00 EET. USD — Publication of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes

GBPUSD:

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The pound is weakening against the dollar following the broader strengthening of the US currency amid a prolonged budget impasse in the United States and rising global uncertainty. Demand for the dollar as a liquid asset is increasing, pulling the pair lower despite the relative resilience of some UK indicators.

The UK remains sensitive to inflation dynamics and consumer activity: any signs of cooling demand reinforce expectations of a gentler monetary policy path, limiting the pound’s upside potential. In addition, weakness across commodity-linked currencies after an unexpected rate cut in New Zealand has intensified risk aversion and indirectly supported the dollar against most currencies, including the pound.

In the short term, the fundamental balance of factors remains unfavorable for GBP: a stronger dollar, cautious expectations for the British economy, and a lack of fresh positive drivers point to an advantage for sellers.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3395, SL 1.3425, TP 1.3315

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[Fresh Forex]

FreshForex Lights Its 21st Candle!​

Friends, it’s a big celebration – FreshForex turns 21! For 21 years, we’ve grown and evolved with you. To make this milestone truly unforgettable, we’re launching a creative contest with real funds prizes!

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3 Categories to Win:

1. PHOTO CARD – 3 winners, $50 each
2.VIDEO – 1 winner, $210
3. SONG – 1 winner, $210

How to join:

1. Create a fun birthday greeting – photo, video, or song.
2. Post it on your social media with the hashtag #HappyBirthdayFreshForex and include a link to our website.
3. Send your post link and account number to our manager in the online chat

Terms & Conditions:

1. Submission Period: October 9 – 31, 2025

2. Participation Terms:

2.1. Create a congratulatory video, photo card, or song for FreshForex.

2.2. Publish it on your social media page (Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, etc.) using the hashtag **#HappyBirthdayFreshForex**.

2.3. Include a link to our website in your congratulatory post.

3. Register Your Work:

Contact our online support chat on our website and provide:

3.1. The link to your published congratulation.

3.2. Your live account number.

4. Categories and Prizes:

4.1. PHOTO CARD: 3 winners of $50 each.

4.2. VIDEO: 1 winner of $210.

4.3. SONG: 1 winner of $210.

5. Prizes will be credited to the winner's live account balance, subject to successful verification of the Personal Area. The funds are available for both trading and withdrawal.

6. Results Announcement: Winners will be announced within 7 business days after the contest ends.

7. Judging Criteria:

7.1. Originality.

7.2. Quality of execution and design.

7.3. Use of the company logo.

7.4. Sincerity and warmth of the congratulations and wishes.

8. Participant Requirements:

8.1. A public social media account.

8.2. An active account older than 1 month.

8.3. Minimum of 10 friends/subscribers.

9. Important Information:

9.1. The Company reserves the right to disqualify any participant who violates the contest rules.

9.2. The decision of the judging panel is final and not subject to dispute.

9.3. The Organizer reserves the right to amend the terms and conditions of the contest.

Participate​

 

[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 13, 2025 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:​

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Sterling is restrained amid uncertainty around the UK’s budget trajectory and the assessment of consumer-demand resilience. The market soberly weighs risks to real incomes and inflation expectations, which limits room for rapid tightening of financial conditions and increases the pound’s sensitivity to the external backdrop.

The external agenda—swings in risk appetite and US trade-policy debates—supports demand for the dollar while cooling demand for higher-beta currencies. The US–UK yield spread remains notable, and the UK gilt market sends mixed signals: investor interest is uneven across durations, which does not add stability to the pound.

Under these conditions, a sell-on-rallies stance remains justified until there is convincing improvement in UK inflation and labor-market data and a reduction in geopolitical risks. Upside risks to the call include unexpectedly positive budget news or strong household-spending data, but the base case still favors the dollar.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3350, SL 1.3450, TP 1.3250

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for October 14, 2025 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 4065.95-4110.95, TP1-4155.95, TP2-4325.65.

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• Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 3350.00–3390.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are being made above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers. XAUUSD: BUY 4065.95-4110.95, TP1-4155.95, TP2-4325.65.

• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 3980.00-4000.00. Currently, investment transactions are being carried out above this range for XAUUSD, which indicates the strength of buyers.

• The area of favourable purchase prices from the point of view of margin requirements is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 14.10.2025.

• The upper limit of zone 1/4 is quoted at 4110.95.

• The upper limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 4065.95.

• Intraday targets: updating the highs from 14.10.2025–4155.95.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of ZNKZ-4325.65. XAUUSD: BUY 4065.95-4110.95, TP1-4155.95, TP2-4325.65.

• Trading recommendations: buy from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 4065.95–4110.95, Take Profit 1–4155.95, Take Profit 2–4325.65.

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[Fresh Forex]

The gold market is booming: is $5,000 the target on the horizon?​

Gold soared to $4,179 per ounce, a new record high. The market is being fueled by expectations of lower interest rates in the US, a weak dollar, metal purchases by central banks, and inflows into funds. Geopolitical risks are adding a “protection premium,” pushing investors toward safe-haven assets.

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5 factors that could push the price of gold even higher:

1. Central banks continue to buy actively, especially the People's Bank of China — steady “strong” demand.
2. The market is waiting for the Fed to ease its policy: lower interest rates make gold more attractive.
3. Record inflows into funds investing in physical gold (according to WGC data).
4. US-China geopolitical tensions are driving defensive buying.
5. A weak dollar and growing private demand are supporting gold's status as a “safe haven.”

The story above $4,100 is just beginning: gold is accelerating, Q4 2025 promises profits for active clients, and FreshForex analysts see the peak surge in 2026. According to Bank of America estimates, gold could reach $5,000 in 2026.

FreshForex announces a special offer: trade gold without swaps:

1. The promotion is valid from October 16 to October 23, 2025.

2. When trading metals XAUUSD, XAUAUD, XAUCHF, XAUEUR, XAUGBP, no swap fees or Swap Free commissions will be charged when positions are rolled over to the next day. Please refer to the CFD specifications.

3. The promotion is available for all types of trading accounts.

4. The company reserves the right to change the terms and duration of the promotion.

Take advantage of the favorable 1:2000 leverage when trading metals on FreshForex and start earning now! Seize the moment — get +21% on every deposit of $210 or more!

Catch the rally​

 

[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 17, 2025 USDJPY​

USDJPY:

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The pair slipped to 150.10–150.20 as demand for the yen is supported by the weaker US dollar and signals from the Bank of Japan that it is attentive to the conditions for further normalization of policy. The regulator’s comments revive expectations that monetary conditions in Japan will be gradually tightened as inflation and wages stabilize. Against this backdrop, cross-border flows into yen-denominated assets have slightly increased and USDJPY has corrected lower.

Stability in Japan’s financial markets and a tendency among domestic investors to reduce FX hedges when US yields are lower also work against the pair. The tape has repeatedly shown that USDJPY is sensitive to expectations around BoJ steps and to overall risk appetite: when systemic risks intensify, the yen typically benefits from supportive inflows.

From the US side, a softer dollar outlook due to the threat of a prolonged budget dispute and measured signals from some Fed speakers weighs on Treasury yields and on dollar appeal. As a result, the base case is continued pressure on USDJPY with potential extension toward 149.25 if the news flow remains neutral.

Trading recommendation: SELL 150.10, SL 150.30, TP 149.25.

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You can find more analytical information on our website​

 

[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 20, 2025 EURUSD​

EURUSD:

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​

The euro is trading steadily thanks to a softer US dollar amid declining US Treasury yields and the fact that federal funds futures already reflect a high probability of a Fed rate cut in October. This reduces the premium for holding the dollar and supports the single currency. An additional tailwind comes from improved global risk appetite following Chinese data that beat the consensus.

Recent remarks from ECB officials suggest they are comfortable with current rates and see a diminishing likelihood of further cuts in the coming months. The euro area economy remains resilient while inflation moves closer to target, reducing the need for additional stimulus. For the euro, this means the near-term rate-expectations differential is not widening in favor of the dollar.

Overall, the balance of fundamental drivers tilts toward a gradual strengthening of EUR against USD, provided the external backdrop does not deteriorate sharply. The focus is on further comments from the Fed and ECB regarding the rate path and on assessing how US–China trade frictions may affect inflation prospects.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1665, SL 1.1645, TP 1.1720

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[Fresh Forex]

Silver rally: Are you in?​

Silver (XAGUSD) just hit a new all-time high, soaring above $53/oz! The surge is driven by a real physical shortage in London (record-low LBMA stocks, spike in lease rates, and COMEX premium), flight to safety amid dovish Fed expectations and gold’s rally, and booming industrial demand from solar energy and electronics. A short squeeze is also underway due to the rising cost of borrowing silver.

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5 key drivers behind the XAGUSD bull run:

1. The market is short on metal – demand consistently outpaces supply.
2. Physical squeeze in London – inventories are depleted, spot trades above COMEX, borrowing costs surge.
3. Industrial super-demand – energy transition fuels silver use in solar, electronics, and EVs.
4. Dovish macro backdrop – Fed rate cuts expected, weaker USD, inflows into safe havens.
5. Capital inflows – silver ETFs and bullion/coin demand picking up momentum.

FreshForex analysts see further upside: the breakout to new highs confirms strong demand for physical silver and sustained investor interest. The rally in gold and robust industrial trends give the silver market breadth and staying power. Q4 2025 offers great potential for active traders, but the strongest move is expected in Q1 2026, as Fed policy loosens and supply remains tight. Don’t wait — fund your account now using promo code TOPUP25 and profit from the silver trend with a 202% drawdown bonus!

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[Fresh Forex]

October’s top stock performers: #AMD, #Amazon, #Tesla & more​

In October, FreshForex clients most frequently traded stocks like #AMD, #Amazon, #GoDaddy, #Tesla, and #Moderna — and these very assets showed the highest share of profitable trades. Capitalize on strong demand momentum and high liquidity: with earnings season and the holiday rush ahead, the “window of opportunity” is still open.

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Outlook through the end of 2025:

• #AMD: Shares could rise following the $6B AI compute deal with OpenAI and Oracle’s reported order of 50,000 next-gen MI450 chips.
• #Amazon: Strong earnings on October 30, solid AWS growth, advertising contributions, and the fall Prime Big Deal Days may keep the stock bullish.
• #GoDaddy: Stock may face pressure if SMB ARPU/inflows slow, plus FX headwinds could dampen August’s raised full-year guidance.
• #Tesla: Growth potential supported by record 497K deliveries, 12.5 GWh energy deployments in Q3, and expansion of FSD v14 (Supervised).
• #Moderna: Stock remains under pressure amid limited revenue visibility, delayed UK shipments, and postponed approval of its flu+COVID combo vaccine to 2026.

According to FreshForex analysts, the outlook for these stocks remains driven by AI investments and seasonal demand. But the strongest growth impulse is likely in Q1 2026, especially if the Fed eases policy and announced tech projects go live.

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT​

XAUUSD: BUY 4075.00, SL 4025.00, TP 4225.00​

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Gold starts the week near record territory, with spot prices fluctuating around $4,080 per ounce. Support comes from expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the October 28–29 meeting and the recent pullback in U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the decision. Headlines about a potential temporary government funding pause in the U.S. and delayed data releases enhance gold’s role as a defensive asset, while September inflation came in slightly below expectations, reinforcing the case for policy easing. In addition, fund inflows into gold have stayed strong after October’s price spike.

The fundamental backdrop remains constructive: World Gold Council data point to renewed net purchases by central banks late in the summer, and October saw more active investment flows into “paper” gold as market volatility rose and real yields eased. Risks to this view include a more cautious Fed tone and a brief dollar rebound after the decision, but these are offset by steady institutional demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Trade idea: BUY 4075.00, SL 4025.00, TP 4225.00

#SP500: BUY 6785, SL 6705, TP 7025​

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U.S. equities enter the week on strong footing: the S&P 500 holds near 6,790 after softer September inflation data and lower government bond yields. Markets are focused on the Fed’s October 28–29 decision; the prevailing view anticipates another rate cut, which would reduce borrowing costs and support the valuation of future earnings. The reporting season is in full swing, with expectations for double-digit earnings growth for 2025 and a busy week of results from index constituents.

Fundamentally, the index benefits from a combination of easing rate pressure, resilient profit expectations in sectors tied to digital infrastructure and AI-related investment, and a broadly steady consumer backdrop. Key risks include any prolonged disruption to federal services that could distort the macro data flow, and the chance of tighter corporate guidance given currency strength and fluctuations in global electronics demand.

Trade idea: BUY 6785, SL 6705, TP 7025

#BRENT: SELL 66.30, SL 68.00, TP 61.20​

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Brent trades around $66 per barrel. The weekly news flow is mixed: on one hand, infrastructure risks linger in the Black and Baltic Sea regions; on the other, international agencies flag accelerating supply growth alongside moderate demand. The earlier OPEC+ decision to allow a marginal output increase and revised surplus projections effectively cap prices despite sporadic supply disruptions and sanctions-related headlines.

By late October, industry assessments imply a gradual rebuild in inventories and a softer price path into Q4, albeit with elevated headline-driven volatility. Additional pressure comes from a cooler global backdrop and rising non-OPEC+ production, while any Fed rate cut would only partly lift the commodity complex. Short-position risks include an escalation of geopolitical tensions that threatens exports and an unexpectedly sharp draw in weekly U.S. stock data.

Trade idea: SELL 66.30, SL 68.00, TP 61.20

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