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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 21, 2025 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

21.07 17:00 EET. USD - Leading Indicators Index

GBPUSD:

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​

Sterling drifts toward 1.3410 as the market almost fully prices a Bank of England rate cut on 7 August. Odds of easier policy rose after unemployment climbed to 4.7 % and wage growth slowed to 5.0 %, pointing to a cooling labour market and heightening fears of a hard landing for the UK economy.

Soft domestic data compound the pressure: GDP has contracted for two consecutive months, and industrial output is struggling with supply‑chain friction as tariff disputes ripple through global trade. With gilts offering lower yields relative to US Treasuries, international investors have little incentive to hold the pound, turning any uptick in GBPUSD into a selling window for bears.

The dollar, meanwhile, enjoys steady haven demand amid escalating trade tensions and a Federal Reserve that remains cautious but not yet dovish. Unless incoming US data radically soften, the pair is likely to probe the 1.3350 support area in the days ahead, with rebounds toward 1.3450 viewed as corrective.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3415, SL 1.3450, TP 1.3350

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Analysis of margin levels for 22 July 2025 #XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 3327.36-3364.86, TP1-3402.36, TP2-3535.96​

• Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 3315.00-3345.00. Currently, investment transactions are being made above the specified range for XAUUSD, which indicates the strength of buyers. XAUUSD: BUY 3327.36-3364.86, TP1-3402.36, TP2-3535.96.

• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 3326.00-3334.00. Currently, investment transactions are being carried out above this range for XAUUSD, which indicates the strength of buyers.

• The area of favourable purchase prices from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 21.07.2025.

• The upper limit of zone 1/4 is quoted at 3364.86.

• The upper limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 3327.36.

• Intraday targets: update of highs from 21.07.2025–3402.36.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of SNKZ-3535.96. XAUUSD: BUY 3327.36-3364.86, TP1-3402.36, TP2-3535.96.

• Trading recommendations: buy from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 3327.36–3364.86, Take Profit 1–3402.36, Take Profit 2–3535.96.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 23, 2025 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD - Crude Oil Inventories

USDJPY:

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The yen remains under pressure as hopes for imminent Bank of Japan tightening fade: June’s trade‑balance surplus missed forecasts and Tokyo inflation slowed to 3.3 %, softening hawkish sentiment. Consequently, the 10‑year JGB yield has slipped below 1.1 %, stretching its gap with the US benchmark to almost 340 bp.

The dollar, by contrast, drew support from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on the need to keep policy “restrictive for longer” to counter the impact of new tariffs. Dollar demand is further buoyed by risk aversion amid uncertainty over US‑China trade negotiations.

With risk appetite subdued and domestic Japanese drivers weak (delayed tax incentives, a stagnant real‑sector outlook), USDJPY is likely to keep grinding toward the upper end of July’s 148.50–149.00 range.

Trade recommendation: BUY 147.00, SL 146.50, TP 148.50

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 24.07.2025 #NQ100​

#NQ100: BUY 23100, SL 22900, TP 23500

​

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The NASDAQ index continues to slowly “die” in terms of volatility. However, this calm, as has been repeatedly pointed out, is before the storm in the form of a strong directional movement. It is expected that the price will rise to complete the formation of the final wave 5 in the forming upward impulse.

This upward movement is likely the final upward movement before the reversal. The price may be preparing for a decline. However, while there remains some potential in the upward movement within wave 5, it is worth considering the possibility of entering buy trades.

Investment idea: BUY 23100, SL 22900, TP 23500.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 25, 2025 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

25.07 15:30 EET.USD - Change in orders for durable goods

EURUSD:
​

The euro remains under pressure as the bond yield gap is once again widening in favor of the dollar following comments from Fed Chair Powell about the need to “keep policy tight for longer” to counteract the inflationary effects of new US tariffs. Additional support for the dollar came from the increase in June retail sales and a decline in jobless claims, which confirms the resilience of the US economy and pushes expectations for the first rate cut toward the year-end.

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From the European side, euro support is undermined by signs of slowing activity: the GfK consumer confidence index in Germany remains below its historical average, and preliminary July eurozone PMIs, despite some improvement, still indicate an uneven recovery of the real sector. Further pressure comes from ongoing uncertainty around EU–US trade talks; Washington is still discussing the possibility of 15% tariffs, which threatens the bloc’s export prospects and fuels demand for the safe-haven dollar.

With monetary policy divergence and tariff escalation risks persisting, the pair is likely to continue correcting toward 1.17. Investors are awaiting tomorrow’s US PCE data, which could reinforce expectations of the Fed maintaining a “hawkish” stance and cement the downward trend.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1755, TP 1.1635

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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 28, 2025 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:

​

The pound is sliding to 1.3425, reacting to a fresh slowdown in UK inflation and reduced expectations of further tightening from the Bank of England. The annual CPI for June fell to 2.2%, the lowest since March 2022, allowing the regulator to keep rates unchanged at the August meeting.

Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields intensify capital inflows into dollar assets after a strong US Q2 GDP report (+2.4% q/q). The British economy remains close to stagnation: the services PMI fell to 49.8, indicating shrinking orders and wage pressure.

Political risks also weigh on the pound: the ruling party's parliamentary majority shrank after unscheduled by-elections, complicating the government's implementation of fiscal stimulus. Collectively, this increases the attractiveness of selling the pair ahead of the Fed meeting, where markets price in a possible rate hike by year-end.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3425, SL 1.3445, TP 1.3325

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 29.07.2025 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 119600, SL 118300, TP 126000

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​

After a slight shakeout with the price breaking down from the previously formed corrective channel and returning back within its limits, the asset has calmed down somewhat. Buyers did not continue to force events, and sellers did not rush to push the price down again.

Based on the current wave pattern, all this looks like price preparation for a sharp upward breakout. This is due to, as previously noted multiple times, the formation of the fifth impulse wave forming within wave [iii].

Thus, the buy recommendation remains relevant.

Investment idea: BUY 119600, SL 118300, TP 126000.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 30, 2025 EURUSD​

Events to watch today:

30.07 15:30 EET. USD - Gross Domestic Product

30.07 21:30 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD remains under pressure amid stronger demand for the US Dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve decision (July 30, 2025). Market sentiment reflects the perception that the recent US–EU trade arrangements are relatively more favorable for the US economy, reinforcing expectations for stronger corporate earnings and a more supportive external balance in the coming months. Capital flows are skewed toward dollar-denominated assets, also because investors prefer to wait out key central‑bank communications in “quality” instruments.

A further driver is the divergence in macro momentum: the US economy shows greater resilience in consumption and labor markets, while the euro area faces constrained growth and a cautious ECB tone. With little reason for ECB tightening and with lingering risks for European industry and exports after tariff headlines, the euro’s fundamental support looks softer. Persisting uncertainty around the inflation path in the euro area adds to the preference for the USD.

Given these factors, the near‑term fundamental tilt remains to the downside for EURUSD. Risks to this view include unexpectedly dovish Fed communication, a pullback in US Treasury yields, and/or positive euro‑area data surprises that could improve growth expectations and support the euro.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1565, SL 1.1600, TP 1.1515

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Analysis of margin levels for 31 July 2025 #NQ100​

• Long-term trend: long. The maximum concentration of current contract volumes is located in the range of 22700.0–22950.0. Currently, investment transactions are being made above the specified range for #NQ100, which indicates the strength of buyers. #NQ100: BUY 23103.7-23381.2, TP1-23658.7, TP2-24754.2.

• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 22810.0–22880.0 and 23220.0–23320.0. Currently, investment transactions are being carried out above the specified range for #NQ100, which indicates the strength of buyers.

• The area of favourable purchase prices from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 31 July 2025.

• The upper limit of zone 1/4 is quoted at 23381.2.

• The upper limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 23103.7.

• Intraday targets: update of highs from 31.07.2025–23658.7.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the ZNKZ – 24754.2.#NQ100: BUY 23103.7-23381.2, TP1-23658.7, TP2-24754.2.

• Investment recommendations: buy from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 23103.7-23381.2, Take Profit 1-23658.7, Take Profit 2-24754.2.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 1, 2025 GBPUSD​

Events to watch today:

11:30 EET. GBP - Manufacturing PMI

15:30 EET. USD - Nonfarm payrolls

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

GBPUSD:

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​

The pound remains under pressure due to the strengthening of the dollar and expectations of further easing of the Bank of England's policy at its meeting on August 7. The regulator's rhetoric in June-July pointed to a “gradual and cautious” course of rate cuts amid weak growth, and the market is pricing in the likelihood of another move at the next meeting. The situation is complicated by the fact that July inflation in Britain unexpectedly accelerated, but the regulator interprets it as a temporary consequence of tariff and price shocks, not wanting to tighten financial conditions excessively.

The external environment is also unfavorable for the GBP: the US has imposed new tariffs on a number of trading partners, strengthening demand for the dollar as a risk-free asset. For the UK, the trade implications are mixed: part of the supply chain is focused on the dollar zone, and industry is sensitive to global demand, which, in the context of prolonged uncertainty, is hitting investment and employment expectations. The risks of a decline in private sector business activity remain elevated.

Today, attention is focused on US employment data: if the labor market confirms its stability, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September will decrease further, which will keep the dollar in the ascendancy. All these factors combined create a bearish bias for GBPUSD in the short term, with any brief rebounds from local oversold conditions typically being used for selling.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3200, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3100

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 4, 2025 EURUSD​

EURUSD:

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The euro/dollar pair opens the week consolidating near 1.16 after a sharp rally on Friday, when a weak U.S. July jobs report and sizable downward revisions to prior readings boosted expectations for an imminent Fed rate cut. Markets increased pricing for easing as early as September, short-dated Treasury yields retreated, and the dollar’s appeal as a “carry” asset diminished. On Monday, August 4, the greenback steadied somewhat, but the lingering impact of the soft NFP remains a notable driver of the EUR/USD balance of risks.

From the Eurozone, the early-week calendar brings few fresh catalysts, and the ECB’s tone remains cautious amid an uneven recovery. Even so, the key fundamental factor for the pair is the relative trajectory of monetary policies: if markets continue to price a quicker and deeper Fed easing cycle, the rate differential and yield expectations should favor the euro, supporting demand on dips. Softer U.S. inflation risks and a cooling labor market add to that backdrop.

Political and market uncertainty in the U.S. may further amplify short-term dollar volatility. Any new signals from the Fed, comments on the rate path, and upcoming U.S. labor/inflation data will be central to the next impulse in EUR/USD over the coming sessions. The base case for today is that the euro holds much of Friday’s gains amid lower U.S. yields and sustained expectations for an approaching Fed pivot.

Trade idea: BUY 1.1575, SL 1.1525, TP 1.1665

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 05.08.2025 #NQ100

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI

#NQ100: FLAT

​

The situation remains stable — no significant changes have been observed in the instrument under review. Volatility remains low, and the price continues to move sluggishly and inexpressively.

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However, this lull cannot last forever. Sooner or later, one of the sides will take the initiative, and the market will revive. At the moment, the movement still fits within the framework of the formation of wave 5 of the upward impulse.

It is highly likely that the growth will continue, but at the same smooth and restrained pace. In such conditions, opening new trades seems inappropriate — it is better to wait for a surge in activity and then look for suitable entry points.

Investment idea: FLAT.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 6, 2025 GBPUSD​

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​

Event to Watch Today:

11:30 EET – GBP – Construction PMI

17:30 EET – USD – US DOE Crude Oil Inventories

19:45 EET – USD – FOMC Member Mary Daly speaks

GBPUSD:

Sterling stays on the back foot ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England decision: consensus expects the Bank Rate to be held at 5.25 percent, but markets price only one or two modest cuts by year-end as inflation has slowed to 2.6 percent while June retail sales fell 0.9 percent m/m.

Additional pressure stems from fiscal concerns: the UK Treasury warned that GBP 4 billion of spending cuts will be needed in 2026 to keep the deficit at the 3 percent-of-GDP target, stoking stagflation fears and capping the pound’s upside.

The dollar is buoyed by inflows into US yield assets: the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.47 percent, widening the spread over 10-year gilts to 155 basis points—historically associated with GBPUSD weakness.

Trading Recommendation: SELL 1.3285, SL 1.3305, TP 1.3180

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Options Analysis for 07 Aug 2025 – BTCUSD​

BTCUSD SELL 115 410, SL 115 970, TP 111 730

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The price is trading comfortably below the daily balance level of 114 905. A fresh bearish impulse has formed, aiming for 109 259 and still pointing in that direction. An excellent sell level is 115 581. A strong resistance zone—and likewise an ideal entry point—sits around 115 594. The bearish bias remains the dominant trend. The main medium-term target is near 109 500. A decline from current levels cannot be ruled out. Medium-term resistance is located around 116 325, while the maximum-profit level lies in the 116 700 area. Dealer-sentiment (DS) metrics favor buyers 72 % on the week and 62 % on the month, yet today’s primary scenario is selling the pair.

Trade idea: BTCUSD SELL 115 410, SL 115 970, TP 111 730

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 8, 2025 USDJPY​

USDJPY:​

The Japanese yen (JPY) is attracting some intraday sellers after the summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) July meeting showed that policymakers remain concerned about the potential negative impact of US tariff increases on the domestic economy. This increases uncertainty about the likely timing of the BoJ's next rate hike. In addition, the overall positive risk sentiment undermines the Japanese yen's position as a safe-haven currency, which in turn helps the USD/JPY pair to rebound from the 146.70 support zone during Friday's Asian session.

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However, investors seem convinced that the BoJ will raise interest rates before the end of the year. On the contrary, traders now see a greater likelihood that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut borrowing costs at its September policy meeting. This, in turn, should hold back any significant recovery of the US dollar (USD) from its two-week low reached on Thursday and help limit deeper losses for the lower-yielding Japanese yen. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has bottomed out in the near term.

Trade recommendation: SELL 147.05, SL 147.50, TP 146.15

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 11, 2025 EURUSD​

EURUSD:​

The euro is getting a boost from better market vibes about the possibility of the war between Ukraine and Russia ending. News about a possible meeting between Trump and Putin next week has some people hoping for a deal that could end the fighting in Ukraine.

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The EUR/USD pair is also strengthening as the US dollar (USD) struggles after weak US economic data prompted traders to price in the possibility of further interest rate cuts this year. Markets are now pricing in an approximately 89% probability of a Fed rate cut at its September meeting. Traders are also pricing in a 58 basis point probability of another rate cut before the end of this year.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday that three interest rate cuts this year would likely be appropriate. Bowman added that the clear weakening of the labor market outweighs the risks of future inflation.

Traders are likely to watch for upcoming US consumer inflation data due on Tuesday, followed by preliminary UK second-quarter GDP data and US producer price index (PPI) data on Thursday.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1700, SL 1.1630, TP 1.1770

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 13, 2025 USDJPY​

USD/JPY:

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The dollar/yen pair is supported by the wide yield differential between the U.S. and Japan: U.S. Treasury yields remain relatively high, while the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance and ongoing stimulus programs keep Japan’s real rates deeply negative. This structurally weakens the yen and sustains demand for USD against JPY.

Japan’s trade balance and energy import dynamics make the currency account sensitive to global price fluctuations and to moves in the global dollar, which amplifies trend moves in USDJPY when U.S. yields rise. Verbal interventions by Japanese officials can slow the pace but rarely reverse the trend without support from BoJ policy.

In the short term, the combination of “expensive” dollar yields and dovish BoJ rhetoric creates a likelihood of testing 148.50, where some players may lock in results ahead of new U.S. data.

Trading recommendation: BUY 148.05, SL 147.80, TP 148.50

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Analysis of margin levels for 14 August 2025 XAUUSD​

Event to pay attention to today:​

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

XAUUSD: SELL 3367.25-3404.75, TP1-3329.75, TP2-3240.55.

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• Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 3344.00–3362.00. At the moment, investment operations are being carried out within the specified range for XAUUSD, which indicates temporary uncertainty.



• Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 3349.00–3359.00. Currently, investment operations are being carried out within this range for XAUUSD, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

• The area of favorable prices for sale from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the low of 12.08.2025.

• The lower border of zone 1/4 is quoted at 3367.25.

• The lower boundary of zone 1/2 is quoted at 3404.75.

• Intraday targets: update of lows from 12.08.2025–3329.75.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of ZNKZ-3240.55. XAUUSD: SELL 3367.25-3404.75, TP1-3329.75, TP2-3240.55.



• Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Sell: 3367.25-3404.75, Take Profit 1–3329.75, Take Profit 2–3240.55.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 15, 2025 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

15.08 15:30 EET. USD - Change in retail sales

EURUSD:

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The euro continues to depreciate after the release of the July U.S. Producer Price Index, which rose by 0.4% m/m—above market consensus. The data strengthened expectations that the Fed will not rush to cut rates at the September meeting, which supports the U.S. dollar.

The euro’s position is further weakened by the European Central Bank’s rhetoric: Governing Council members unanimously reaffirmed their readiness to ease further if eurozone economic activity remains sluggish.

The European Commission already lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for the bloc, increasing the discount on the currency. The spread between 10-year benchmarks widened again: 10-year USTs trade near 4.46%, while German Bunds are only 2.09%. A nearly 240 bps differential fuels capital outflows from euro assets into dollar ones, exerting fundamental pressure on the pair.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1665, SL 1.1685, TP 1.1565

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 18, 2025 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:

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By the start of the European session on August 18, GBP/USD is holding around the mid-1.35s, as confirmed by price feeds and market roundups near the current date. Private fundamental notes for Monday feature a bearish bias, favoring sell setups from 1.35–1.36, which aligns with fading upside momentum and profit-taking on long positions.

Fundamentally, pressure on the pound stems from recent signals by the Bank of England and real-sector data. Several reviews note that the latest BoE decision was accompanied by hawkish communication; however, cooling economic activity and a weak July GDP print (m/m negative) limit room for further tightening and raise the risk of a policy path reassessment into the fall. Against this backdrop, near-term rate expectations are tilting away from the GBP, while a rise in UST yields ahead of US releases supports the dollar in a moderate risk-off mode.

Balance-of-payments factors also weigh on the pound’s sustained upside: a widening UK current account deficit in Q2 in some estimates increases the currency’s sensitivity to outflows during periods of softer risk appetite. In parallel, weekly consensus forecasts cite a probability of testing lower levels as the correction unfolds from the 1.36+ resistances, with the scenario invalidated on a firm break above recent highs. Overall, as of 18.08, we prefer selling from 1.3550 with a tight risk.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3550, SL 1.3570, TP 1.3445

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