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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for 19 June 2025​

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• Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 3365.00–3395.00. Currently, investment operations are being carried out within the specified range for XAUUSD, which indicates temporary uncertainty. XAUUSD: SELL 3400.37-3437.87, TP1-3362.87, TP2-3234.07.

• Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 3382.00–3392.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates the strength of sellers.

• The area of favourable prices for selling from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the low of 18 June 2025.

• The lower border of zone 1/4 is quoted at 3400.37.

• The lower limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 3437.87.

• Intraday targets: update of lows from 18.06.2025–3362.87.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of ZNKZ-3234.07. XAUUSD: SELL 3400.37-3437.87, TP1-3362.87, TP2-3234.07.

• Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Sell: 3400.37-3437.87, Take Profit 1–3362.87, Take Profit 2–3234.07.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 20, 2025 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:

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On Thursday, the GBP/USD exchange rate found some room for growth, rising above the 1.3450 level after an early technical rebound from the 1.3400 mark. Recently, broad market flows have favored the US dollar amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, but on Thursday, US markets were closed for a national holiday, giving Cable some room to maneuver and weakening demand for the US dollar.

According to a CBS reporter on social network X (formerly Twitter), President Donald Trump may be considering ordering the US military to strike an Iranian nuclear weapons facility. If the Trump administration decides to implement this proposal, it will be the first case of preventive use of US military force since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Citing an Israeli government representative, The Times of Israel reported that the Israeli government is awaiting a final decision from the Trump administration within the next 24-48 hours.

Reports citing three different diplomats confirmed that US administration officials, notably US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Wiggle, are in regular contact with their Iranian counterpart, helping to soften some of the emotional impact that hit over-the-counter traders on Thursday. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly made it clear to US envoy Witkoff that the Iranian government is willing to show “flexibility” on its nuclear plans and resume negotiations, but only if Israel stops its missile strikes on distant targets. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he would travel to Geneva on Friday to meet with his European counterparts.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3495, SL 1.3460, TP 1.3560

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 23, 2025 EURUSD​

An event to watch out for today:

11:00 EET. EUR - Manufacturing PMI

16:45 EET. USD - Manufacturing PMI

EURUSD:

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The EUR/USD exchange rate fell to around 1.1480 at the start of the Asian session on Monday. The US dollar is strengthening against the euro (EUR) amid US President Donald Trump's decision to join Israel's war against Iran, which has sharply escalated the conflict. Traders will closely monitor developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East.

Over the weekend, the US entered the conflict between Israel and Iran when American military aircraft and submarines struck three Iranian targets in Iran, Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump said Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities had been “totally destroyed” and warned of “much more severe” strikes if Iran did not agree to peace. The rise in tensions following the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities is contributing to the rise in safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar and is having a negative impact on the major currency pair.

Earlier this month, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time this year to support the eurozone's sluggish recovery, but made it clear that there would be a pause in July. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rate cuts are coming to an end, as the central bank is now “well positioned” to deal with the current uncertainty. The ECB's hawkish tone may help limit the euro's losses in the near term.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1500, SL 1.1460, TP 1.1580

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 24.06.2025 #EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

16:00 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

17:00 EET. GBP - CB Consumer Confidence

EURUSD: SELL 1.1475, SL 1.1500, TP 1.1250

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The previously discussed updated wave scenario remains relevant. But the price is in no hurry to go down. At the moment, to all appearances, a correction is forming, the exit from which is expected to be downward. It is conditioned by the possible development of the lengthening wave 3 of the descending impulse.

The mentioned correction is considered as the second wave in the impulse included in the wave 3. If this is indeed the case, we may see a prolonged downward movement in the future.

For this reason, we should continue to consider sell trades as the most promising in terms of potential profit. You can enter short positions when the current local minimum is updated.

Investment idea: SELL 1.1475, SL 1.1500, TP 1.1250.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 25, 2025 GBPUSD​

Events to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET.USD - Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech

17:30 EET.USD - Crude oil inventory data from the Department of Energy

GBPUSD:

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GBP/USD extends its winning streak for the third session in a row, trading around 1.3620 on Wednesday during Asian hours. The pair is hovering around 1.3648, the highest level since February 2022, which was recorded on Tuesday. The risk-sensitive GBP/USD pair is supported by increased risk appetite amid easing tensions in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire between Iran and Israel came into effect on Tuesday, raising hopes for an end to the 12-day conflict. However, caution remains due to uncertainty about the durability of the ceasefire. Traders are likely to focus their attention on the possible resumption of negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme and the fate of its enriched uranium.

During his testimony before the Congressional Budget Committee on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell spoke in favour of postponing rate cuts, probably until the fourth quarter. Powell added, ‘When the time is right, expect rates to continue to decline.’ He also said that data indicates that at least some of the tariffs will hit consumers, and tariff inflation will begin to rise in June.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said on Wednesday morning that the central bank should wait to see how uncertainty surrounding tariffs and other policy measures will affect the economy before adjusting interest rates. Schmid added that the stability of the economy gives us time to observe price and economic developments.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3620, SL 1.3600, TP 1.3710

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 27, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Core PCE Price Index

17:00 EET. USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment

GBPUSD:

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The GBP/USD pair held positive momentum near 1.3735 during Asian trading on Friday.

Concerns over the Fed's future independence continue to undermine the US Dollar and create a tailwind for the major pair. U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that he is considering selecting the next Fed chairman ahead of schedule, which has spurred fresh controversy over U.S. rate cuts. Trump said the list of potential successors to Powell had shrunk to “three or four people”, without naming any finalists.

In addition, weaker-than-expected US gross domestic product (GDP) data also sent the dollar lower. The U.S. economy contracted faster than expected in the first three months of this year, falling 0.5%, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. The figure was below the previous estimate and the market consensus of -0.2%.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned earlier this week that interest rates are likely to continue to fall. At its June meeting, the UK central bank left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%, although three of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to cut interest rates.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3750, SL 1.3690, TP 1.3865

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Market Fundamental Analysis for June 30, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

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The USD/JPY pair is attracting some sellers towards 143.85 during the Asian session on Monday. The U.S. dollar (USD) is weakening against the Japanese yen (JPY) amid rising bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut.

The United States (US) and China are close to a deal on tariffs. However, U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly ended trade talks with Canada, adding uncertainty to the market's positive outlook.

In addition, traders are betting that the U.S. central bank will cut rates more frequently and possibly sooner than previously expected. Markets estimate the probability of a quarter-point Fed rate cut at nearly 92.4%, up from 70% a week earlier.

On the data side, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 2.3% in May, up from 2.2% in April (revised from 2.1%), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday. This value matched market expectations. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.7% in May, following a 2.6% increase (revised from 2.5%) seen in April.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) cautious stance on interest rate hikes could put pressure on the yen and create a tailwind for the pair.

Trade recommendation: SELL 143.50, SL 144.30, TP 142.40

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 01.07.2025 #BTCUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

16:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

16:30 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

16:30 EET. GBP - BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

16:30 EET. JPY - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Speaks

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

BTCUSD: SELL 106680, SL 106900, TP 104000

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It looks like we’ll have to wait a bit longer for a new all-time high. The price is coming under gradually increasing pressure, which is becoming harder for buyers to withstand. Eventually, this will likely result in a sharp drop. This downward move could be a correction. A strong bullish impulse has previously formed, and this pullback would be a natural counter-reaction to it. Therefore, long positions should be closed, and traders should begin considering short opportunities. Entering short positions is possible at current market levels.

Investment idea: SELL 106680, SL 106900, TP 104000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 2, 2025 EURUSD​

Event to pay attention to today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

EURUSD:
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EUR/USD broke its winning streak that began on June 18 and traded around 1.1800 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The pair fell after reaching 1.1830, its highest level since September 2021, recorded on Tuesday, which can be explained by a slight strengthening of the US dollar (USD).

The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar against six major currencies, broke its losing streak that began on June 19 and is trading around 96.70 at the time of writing. The dollar is strengthening as recent data showed that economic activity in the US manufacturing sector improved in June.

The US Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 from 48.5 in May, exceeding experts' expectations of 48.8. In addition, the number of job openings in the US (JOLTS Job Openings) rose to 7.76 million in May from 7.395 million in April. This figure exceeded market expectations of 7.3 million. Traders are likely to keep an eye on the ADP report on US employment change for June, which will be released later today.

Preliminary data showed that inflation in the eurozone was 2%, as expected, remaining within the European Central Bank's (ECB) target range. Meanwhile, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane noted that the recent cycle of monetary tightening by the central bank has come to an end.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1795, SL 1.1830, TP 1.1710

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 03.07.2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI

EURUSD: SELL 1.1770, SL 1.1800, TP 1.1580

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The scenario under consideration continues to be realized. The price, as it was supposed, began to grow again and updated the maximum of the current year. Also, the target in the form of the upper formation or channel, within which the diagonal triangle was formed, was reached. Now this wave pattern looks fully formed and now the first reaction from the sellers is already observed. The price has started to bounce down. Thus, we are likely to see a decline in the near future, which can be either a major correction or a downward impulse.
Be that as it may, now there is quite a promising opportunity to make sell trades.

Investment idea: SELL 1.1770, SL 1.1800, TP 1.1580.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 4, 2025 GBPUSD​

Events to pay attention to today:

11:30 EET. GBP - Construction PMI

GBPUSD:

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On Thursday, the GBP/USD exchange rate fluctuated near the lower limit of the short-term decline, which was facilitated by pressure from sellers, causing the US dollar to fall after US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data came in higher than expected. Markets had expected results below forecasts after preliminary ADP employment data for the week showed a sharp decline in private sector jobs, but a sharp increase in public sector education jobs offset the decline in private sector employment.

The UK government is struggling with an uneven economic downturn, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer is trying to maintain control of the situation. The Prime Minister has been criticised for failing to implement the sharp cuts in social benefits that were a key part of his election manifesto, as well as for not abandoning tax increases, which has angered both the markets and his political supporters in the UK.

Strong net employment growth in the US, reflected in the NFP data, also undermined hopes for a rate cut in the broader market. The June employment results dispelled any market expectations of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting at the end of the month, and the likelihood of three rate cuts before the end of the year was also called into question.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3660, SL 1.3680, TP 1.3560

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 08.07.2025 #NQ100​

#NQ100: SELL 22700, SL 22850, TP 21400​

The index appears to be frozen, awaiting some significant market catalyst. Due to extremely low volatility, nothing has changed in the technical picture. The upward impulse is still presumed to be complete or nearly complete. Therefore, a decline is expected soon — and as is often the case with this index, it could be sharp and significant. This creates a promising opportunity to enter short positions. Selling can be initiated at current market levels.

Investment idea: SELL 22700, SL 22850, TP 21400.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 9, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

USDJPY:

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​

The yen has carved out a two-week low after Washington confirmed it will impose 25 percent tariffs on Japanese goods from 1 August and warned of mirror measures if Tokyo retaliates. Political uncertainty ahead of the 20 July upper-house election is exacerbating capital outflows into dollar-denominated assets.

Monetary-policy differentials also work against the yen: ten-year U.S. Treasury yields are holding above 4.4 percent, while the Bank of Japan continues its ultra-easy stance and signals unlimited JGB purchases to cap yields. Fed-funds futures now price in fewer than 50 basis points of easing by year-end, whereas the probability of a BoJ rate hike before March 2026 remains below 30 percent.

On the spot market the pair has secured a foothold above 146.70 and is approaching the psychological 147.00 threshold, driven by the strong dollar–weak yen combo. Absent any sign of FX intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance and with U.S.–Japan trade tensions unresolved, USDJPY looks poised to challenge the June peak at 148.00 in the coming sessions.

Trading recommendation: BUY 147.05, SL 146.45, TP 148.00

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for 10 July 2025 #XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 3293.55-3331.05, TP1-3368.55, TP2-3467.15.​

• Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 3315.00-3345.00. Currently, investment operations are being carried out within the specified range for XAUUSD, which indicates temporary uncertainty. XAUUSD: BUY 3293.55-3331.05, TP1-3368.55, TP2-3467.15.

• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 3335.00-3345.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates weakness among buyers.

• The area of favourable purchase prices from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 02.07.2025.

• The upper limit of zone 1/4 is quoted at 3331.05.

• The upper limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 3293.55.

• Intraday targets: updating the highs from 02.07.2025–3368.55.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of ZNKZ-3467.15. XAUUSD: BUY 3293.55-3331.05, TP1-3368.55, TP2-3467.15.

• Trading recommendations: buy from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 3293.55–3331.05, Take Profit 1–3368.55, Take Profit 2–3467.15.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 11, 2025 EURUSD​

EURUSD:

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The euro retreats: the publication of US data on initial jobless claims once again exceeded expectations, reinforcing market doubts about the Fed's imminent easing and pushing the pair below 1.1700.

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The US currency strengthened again after the publication of better-than-expected unemployment claims data: the US labor market remains stable, reducing the likelihood of an early easing of Fed policy. At the same time, investors are focusing on the PCE price index, which could confirm that inflationary pressure is still above target.

Additional pressure on the euro is being created by discussions of a possible US-EU trade deal, which is stimulating capital inflows into the dollar and strengthening the greenback. In the eurozone, German wholesale price data signals a slowdown in inflation, and some ECB members remain cautious, pointing to the risk of premature tightening.

With the yield differential remaining in place and no stimulating factors for the euro, the base scenario implies a further decline in the quote to 1.1615; the risk of a pullback above 1.1715 appears limited and is only possible if US statistics deteriorate sharply.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1675, SL 1.1715, TP 1.1615

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 14, 2025 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:

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Sterling is oscillating around 1.3480, digesting mixed external signals. A slight pull-back in the DXY has provided brief relief, yet the fundamental backdrop remains bearish: the imminent start of 30 % U.S. tariffs on European and Mexican goods in three weeks threatens UK exporters by extension and sustains flight-to-quality demand for the dollar.

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Domestic figures add to the pound’s woes. UK GDP contracted 0.1 % m/m for a second straight month, industrial output fell 0.9 %, and manufacturing output dropped 1 %. The data reinforce bets that the Bank of England will have to lower rates as early as August to shore up demand, despite inflation still running at 3.6 % y/y.

On the U.S. side, strong labour-market readings and sticky inflation keep the Fed in wait-and-see mode. The yield gap between 10-year Treasuries and Gilts has widened beyond 200 bp, prompting capital outflows from UK debt and capping any sterling rebound.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3475, SL 1.3505, TP 1.3430

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 15.07.2025 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 22900, SL 22700, TP 23500.

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Volatility in the considered trading instrument continues to remain extremely low. However, such calm always happens before a storm. Currently, the formation of a converging horizontal triangle, which is the fourth wave of an impulse forming within wave 5, has probably completed.

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It turns out that only one bullish wave remains to complete the entire upward cycle. The first signs of the development of this wave are already visible at the moment. It will continue to develop during the next trading session, so it is recommended to consider the possibility of entering buy trades at the current market values.

Investment idea: BUY 22900, SL 22700, TP 23500.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 16, 2025 USDJPY​

Event to Watch Today:

15:30 EET. USD – Producer Price Index

USDJPY:

​

USD/JPY has stabilized around 148.90, maintaining upside potential due to:

Interest Rates: The Fed keeps yields elevated (10-year bonds at 4.46%), while the Bank of Japan maintains an ultra-loose policy, keeping real yields negative.

Political Uncertainty: Upcoming elections in Japan and possible fiscal tightening reduce the yen’s appeal.

Dollar Demand: Trade frictions and geopolitical risks drive safe-haven flows into the dollar.

A break above 149.00 could open the path to 149.50. Support at 148.60 remains a critical barrier for the bullish scenario.

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Trade Recommendation: BUY 149.00, SL 148.70, TP 149.90

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 17.07.2025 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: SELL 119700, SL 121000, TP 114500

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​

After updating the historical high, buyers calmed down a bit. Their opponents immediately took advantage of this, starting active pressure on the price. As a result, the rate began to drop sharply, but this is a temporary phenomenon. Apparently, this decline is of a corrective nature. This means that we may see the formation of a zigzag structure in the near future.

For this, the price will rise slightly, but it will not be possible to update the maximum again, and the price will go down again. The expected trajectory of the price movement is indicated in the provided screenshot.
In this situation, it is worth considering the possibility of entering sell trades after a slight rise.

Investment idea: SELL 119700, SL 121000, TP 114500.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 18, 2025 EURUSD​

EURUSD:

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​

The US dollar remains the sole beneficiary of a series of upside macro surprises: June retail sales rose 0.6 % m/m, annual CPI accelerated to 3.6 %, and initial jobless claims fell to a three‑month low. The data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep the policy range at 5.25 – 5.50 % through year‑end, lifting 10‑year Treasury yields towards 4.50 %. Against this backdrop, investors rotate into the greenback as the most liquid defensive asset, pushing EURUSD back towards the 1.16 area and making 1.1630 vulnerable to further downside.

In the eurozone, fundamentals remain soft. German inflation flat‑lined in June, while recent surveys point to stagnation in Italian and Spanish manufacturing. Uncertainty over possible 30 % US tariffs on key EU goods adds to the pressure, with a decision expected by late July. Until the trade outlook clears and the 2‑year Bund‑UST spread (‑215 bp) narrows, upside in the single currency looks limited.

A key support zone sits at 1.1530 – the level where strong corporate import demand emerged in February. A decisive break would reinforce bearish momentum and expose the March lows.

Trade idea: SELL 1.1630, SL 1.1680, TP 1.1530

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