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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 22.05.2025 #NQ100

#NQ100: SELL 21000, SL 21500, TP 20000

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During the last trading day, the index moved slowly downward. At one point, however, buyers attempted a sudden upward breakout to test sellers’ resolve. While this caused a sharp spike, sellers quickly responded and pushed the price back down. As a result, a new local low was established, and the price may now accelerate downward, potentially forming a full impulse wave. Therefore, previously opened short positions should be held, and new selling opportunities could also be considered. Investment idea: SELL 21000, SL 21500, TP 20000.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for May 23, 2025 EURUSD​

Event to pay attention today:

17:00 EET. USD- Volume of home sales on the primary market

EURUSD:

​

EUR/USD is recovering its recent losses from the previous session and is trading around 1.1310 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair is rising on the back of lower US Treasury yields, which continue to decline after the US 30-year bond yield retreated from 5.15 per cent, the highest in 19 months.

US President Donald Trump's ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ has passed the House of Representatives and is on its way to the Senate, sparking fears of a widening budget deficit in the United States (US).

However, EUR/USD lost around 0.50 per cent on Thursday as the US dollar gained as the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May came in at 52.1, up from April's 50.6. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.2 previously, while the services PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.8.

Fed Chairman Christopher Waller noted on Thursday that markets are watching fiscal policy. Waller also said that if rates are close to 10%, the economy will be in good shape for H2 and the Fed may be in a position to cut rates later this year.

The Financial Times reported that President Trump is pushing the European Union (EU) to cut tariffs or impose more duties. US Trade Representative Greer is set to tell fellow EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maroš Šefčovič, that the recent ‘explanatory memorandum’ does not meet US expectations.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1320, SL 1.1300, TP 1.1420

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Market Fundamental Analysis for May 26, 2025 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:

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The GBP/USD pair is building on last week's strong upward movement and gaining positive momentum during Monday's Asian session. This momentum is lifting spot prices above the 1.3550 level, to the highest level since February 2022, and is supported by a combination of factors.

The British Pound (GBP) continues to show relative outperformance on the back of Friday's favourable UK retail sales data, which showed that consumer spending remains a bright spot despite the gloomy economic outlook. This, along with higher-than-expected inflation in April, fuelled speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will take a pause at its next meeting on 18 June and will not be in a rush to reduce borrowing costs further.

The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, continues to struggle to attract meaningful buyers amid concerns that the tax and spending bill will increase the US budget deficit at a faster pace than previously expected. Furthermore, growing confidence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will further cut interest rates in 2025 has driven the Dollar to near one-month lows and is fuelling positive movement in GBP/USD.

This week, investors will face the release of important US macroeconomic data, with the release of Durable Goods Orders data on Tuesday and preliminary GDP data on Thursday. These data, as well as the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index on Friday, may provide insight into the prospects of a Fed rate cut, which will have an impact on the USD and GBP/USD.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3590, SL 1.3570, TP 1.3690

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 27.05.2025 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: SELL 109000, SL 109800, TP 100000

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Bitcoin is resisting downward movement. The previously formed bearish wave was immediately followed by a rebound, with the price climbing again toward the previously established high. This was expected and is considered part of the correction that is presumably underway.

A continuation of the downward movement is anticipated, forming the next leg of the corrective zigzag. This decline is viewed as wave [ii] within a larger bullish impulse. While the overall trend remains upward, a short-term sell opportunity from current market levels appears promising.

Investment idea: SELL 109000, SL 109800, TP 100000.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for May 28, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

USDJPY:​

The Japanese yen (JPY) fell to a one-week low against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Wednesday, although the intraday decline was not extended. Comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato indicated that the government will take some measures to curb the recent sharp rise in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. This, along with the overall positive tone on risks, is undermining the safe-haven Yen and acting as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair amid some US Dollar (USD) buying for the second day in a row.

However, JPY bears are refraining from aggressive bets amid expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again. This is a significant divergence from expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to lower borrowing costs in 2025, which should limit losses for the low-yielding JPY. In addition, uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariff policy and geopolitical risks should support the safe-haven yen. In addition, bearish sentiment in the US dollar may limit further upside for the USD/JPY pair.

Trade recommendation: SELL 144.20, SL 145.20, TP 142.20

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Margin analysis of the market for 29.05.2025 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 3282.74-3320.24, TP1-3245.24, TP2-3146.44​

Long-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 3290.00–3325.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are being made below the specified range, which indicates the strength of sellers. XAUUSD: SELL 3282.74-3320.24, TP1-3245.24, TP2-3146.44.

• Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 3296.00–3302.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates the strength of sellers.

• The area of favourable prices for selling from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the low of 29 May 2025.

• The lower border of zone 1/4 is quoted at 3282.74.

• The lower limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 3320.24.

• Intraday targets: update of lows from 29.05.2025–3245.24.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of ZNKZ-3146.44. XAUUSD: SELL 3282.74-3320.24, TP1-3245.24, TP2-3146.44.

• Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Sell: 3282.74-3320.24, Take Profit 1–3245.24, Take Profit 2–3146.44.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for May 30, 2025 EURUSD​

An event to watch out for today:

15:30 EET. USD -Core PCE Price Index

EURUSD:

​

The EUR/USD pair is struggling to capitalize on yesterday's strong rebound from 1.1200, or a one-and-a-half-week low, and is trading with a slight negative bias during Friday's Asian session. Spot prices are currently hovering around 1.1300, down nearly 0.15% on the day, although the downtrend remains subdued.

After a sharp reversal the day before, the US dollar (USD) is attracting some buyers on the decline amid a flight to safe assets and is proving to be a key factor holding back the EUR/USD pair. The Federal Appeals Court suspended a separate trade court ruling and late Thursday evening reinstated US President Donald Trump's broad trade tariffs. This adds uncertainty to the markets and revives demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

However, the USD's rise does not inspire confidence in a bullish trend amid concerns about the deterioration of the US financial situation and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will again lower borrowing costs in 2025. On the other hand, the single currency continues to receive some support from US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone the introduction of tariffs on the European Union (EU), which helps to limit the decline of the EUR/USD pair.

Going forward, attention will be focused on the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. This important data will play a key role in shaping expectations regarding the Fed's rate cut policy, which in turn will stimulate demand for the US dollar and give some momentum to the EUR/USD pair ahead of the weekend. Then, the market's attention will shift to the important European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting next Thursday.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1350, SL 1.1310, TP 1.1430

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Market Fundamental Analysis for June 2, 2025 GBPUSD​

An event to watch out for today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

GBPUSD:

​

The GBP/USD pair is gaining positive momentum again at the start of the new week amid renewed selling of the US dollar (USD), although it remains below the psychological mark of 1.3500 during the Asian session.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index released on Friday pointed to a further easing of inflationary pressures in the US and reinforced the case for further easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). In addition, concerns about the deterioration of the US financial situation caused by the adoption of US President Donald Trump's “Big Beautiful Law” are putting new downward pressure on the US dollar.

The British pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues to show relatively strong momentum amid expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will pause at its next meeting on June 18 and will not rush to further lower borrowing costs. This, in turn, is seen as another factor supporting the GBP/USD pair. However, weakening risk sentiment is limiting the US dollar's losses and may limit the pair's growth.

Global risk sentiment deteriorated after Trump said on Friday that China was not willing to comply with the terms of the trade agreement reached in Switzerland. This adds to the ongoing geopolitical risks associated with the war between Russia and Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East, which are reducing investor appetite for risky assets and may provide some support for the US dollar as a safe-haven currency.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3480, SL 1.3440, TP 1.3560

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 03.06.2025 NQ100​

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - JOLTs Job Openings

#NQ100: SELL 21200, SL 21400, TP 19500

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There were practically no changes in the wave pattern of the asset under consideration over the past time. The price has been in a very narrow price range all the time. Now there is an activation of buyers, but there are no strong movements yet.

Most likely, this jump is a correction in the emerging downward movement. Then in the future we expect the initiative to be transferred to sellers, which will lead to an impulsive price decline. However, this impulse is considered as a part of the corrective wave structure, which is a zigzag, which is a part of the converging horizontal triangle.

Thus, the recommendation to sell remains valid.

Investment idea: SELL 21200, SL 21400, TP 19500.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for June 4, 2025 USDJPY​

Events to pay attention today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

USDJPY:​

The Japanese yen (JPY) is attracting some intraday buyers after falling against the US dollar during the Asian session, and, at least for now, it seems that its pullback from the weekly high reached yesterday has paused. An upward revision of Japan's services business activity index, as well as expectations that wage growth will lead to faster inflation, leave open the possibility of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2025. In addition, ongoing geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty are key factors supporting the JPY.

Meanwhile, cautious statements by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday sparked speculation that the next interest rate hike will not happen anytime soon. However, this still differs significantly from expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) by the end of this year. This, along with concerns about the US budget, is causing a new wave of selling of the US dollar (USD) after Tuesday's decent rebound from a six-week low and is putting some pressure on the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session.

Trading recommendation: SELL 144.20, SL 144.40, TP 143.20

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 05.06.2025 #NQ100​

#NQ100: SELL 21600, SL 21800, TP 20600

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The index continues to push higher, inching closer to its all-time high. It seems that buyers are aiming precisely for that resistance level. Given this, an alternative wave scenario should be considered. Instead of a correction, the ongoing move may be a full impulsive wave—specifically wave 5 of a prolonged upward impulse. Currently, wave 3 of this fifth wave may be ending or already completed. If this view is correct, a corrective pullback is likely in the near future before another upward push resumes. As such, a short position could be considered to capitalize on the expected corrective decline.

Investment idea: SELL 21600, SL 21800, TP 20600.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for June 6, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change

EURUSD:​

The EUR/USD pair is trading in a limited range around 1.1440 during Asian trading hours on Friday.

Investors' attention will be focused on the official US employment data as it will affect market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The US economy is estimated to have added 130,000 new workers, down from the 171,000 hired in April. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's value against six major currencies, rises to 98.80.

The dollar index rebounded on Thursday following comments by U.S. President Donald Trump in a post on the Truth.Social website suggesting a de-escalation of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. “The call lasted about an hour and a half and ended very positively for both countries.” wrote Trump.

Meanwhile, the euro (EUR) is trending negative, while comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials indicate that the monetary policy expansion cycle is now complete.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1400, SL 1.1500, TP 1.1200

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 9, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

​

The GBP/USD pair rose during the Asian session on Monday and so far appears to have paused its corrective decline from the highest level since February 2022 around 1.3615 reached last week.

The US Dollar (USD) failed to capitalize on Friday's positive US jobs data and started the new week on a subdued note, which in turn is seen as a key factor supporting the GBP/USD pair. Moreover, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey's remarks last week that the central bank would take a gradual and cautious approach to interest rate cuts amid trade uncertainty served as a tailwind for the currency pair.

Meanwhile, a stronger-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report dampened hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates soon this year. This is deterring dollar bears from new bets and limiting GBP/USD's upside.

On Monday, there will be no market-important economic data released from either the UK or the US, leaving the GBP/USD pair at the mercy of dollar price action.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3535, SL 1.3635, TP 1.3335

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Wave analysis of the market for 10 June 2025 #BTCUSD​

Event to pay attention to today:

13:00 EET. USD - NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

BTCUSD: SELL 10500, SL 106500, TP 95000


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Bitcoin has once again decided to try its luck at updating its previously set historical high. The price has risen steadily, which was expected, but this growth appears to be corrective in nature and is taking the form of a zigzag.

In this case, the enthusiasm of buyers may be sharply dampened in the near future, leading to a reversal and movement in the opposite direction. And this time, the downward movement will be impulsive.

In this regard, it is recommended to start closing previously opened buy positions and look for entry points for sell trades. One such possible level could be 10500.

Investment idea: SELL 10500, SL 106500, TP 95000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 11, 2025 USDJPY​

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:
​

The Japanese yen (JPY) is attracting new sellers during Tuesday's Asian session as optimism about the resumption of trade talks between the US and China undermines demand for safe-haven assets. This, along with moderate growth in the US dollar (USD), pushes the USD/JPY pair above the psychological mark of 145.00, to an almost two-week high in the last hour. However, a combination of factors may keep JPY bears from aggressively betting on the direction of movement and limit the currency pair's growth.

Amid signs of rising inflation in Japan, the upward revision of first-quarter GDP confirmed bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates. This marks a significant divergence from the relatively dovish policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed), which should limit the USD's rise and favor the lower-yielding Japanese yen. In addition, ongoing trade uncertainty and growing geopolitical tensions support the prospect of some bargain hunting in the Japanese yen.

On Tuesday, senior US and Chinese officials will meet for the second time in London for talks aimed at resolving the ongoing trade dispute between the world's two largest economies. Investors remain hopeful for a breakthrough on export controls on commodities such as rare earth metals, which continues to support risk sentiment and undermines the Japanese yen's safe-haven status.

Trading recommendation: BUY 145.00, SL 144.60, TP 146.10

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[Fresh Forex]

Wave analysis of the market for 12 June 2025 #NQ100

Event to pay attention to today:​

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
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#NQ100: SELL 21600, SL 21800, TP 20000​

The index value continues to compress, presumably forming a terminal diagonal triangle. In the coming days, this model is likely to attain its final form, thereby completing the development of the entire upward impulse. In this case, a strong downward movement is expected, which can be pursued.

To enter at the safest point, it is recommended to wait for a breakdown of the lower boundary. In this instance, we will join an already well-accelerated asset. Attempting to enter in either direction before this moment is not advisable, as the price may undertake some manipulative movement.

Investment idea: SELL 21600, SL 21800, TP 20000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 13, 2025 EURUSD​

Events to pay attention today:

12:00 EET. EUR - Foreign trade balance

17:00 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

EURUSD:

​

EUR/USD interrupted its four-day winning streak, retreating from 1.1631, its highest level since October 2021, and is currently trading around 1.1530 in Asian hours on Friday. The pair is depreciating as the US dollar (USD) gains support as traders shift to increased demand for safe-haven assets due to rising tensions in the Middle East.

Israel has attacked dozens of targets across Iran to eliminate its nuclear programme. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said Israel could face a missile and drone strike after Israel's pre-emptive strike on Iran. Katz declared a special state of emergency in the country, Axios reports.

In addition, White House Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a statement: ‘Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not participating in strikes against Iran, and our top priority is to protect American troops in the region.’ ‘President Trump and the administration have taken all necessary measures to protect our troops and are in close contact with our regional partners.’ ‘Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel,’ Rubio added.

However, the decline in the EUR/USD pair may be limited, as the US dollar (USD) may face difficulties after US President Donald Trump's new threat to extend steel tariffs from 23 June to imported ‘steel-derived products’ such as household appliances, e.g. dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, etc. The tariffs were initially introduced in March at 25% and then doubled to 50% for most countries. This is the second time that the scope of the duties has been expanded.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1530, SL 1.1550, TP 1.1440

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 16, 2025 GBPUSD​

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Empire Manufacturing Index

GBPUSD:

​

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive below Friday's three-year high, although it lacks bearish conviction and is trading in a narrow range around 1.3500 during the Asian session.

The latest UK consumer inflation data will be released on Wednesday, ahead of Thursday's Bank of England (BoE) meeting, which will play a key role in influencing the British pound (GBP). In addition, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) plans to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, which will affect the US dollar (USD) exchange rate and give a significant boost to the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, weaker UK GDP data released on Friday, which showed that the economy contracted more than expected by 0.3% in April, reinforced expectations that the BoE will cut interest rates more aggressively than anticipated. On the other hand, the US dollar is receiving some support from the global flight to safe assets caused by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which is helping to limit the growth of the GBP/USD pair.

However, growing recognition that the US central bank will also resume its rate-cutting cycle in September amid signs of weakening inflation in the US is holding back dollar bulls from aggressive bets. Moreover, the generally positive risk sentiment acts as a barrier to the dollar as a safe haven and provides some support to the GBP/USD pair, which requires some caution before confirming that spot prices have peaked.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3550, SL 1.3530, TP 1.3640

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 17.06.2025 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: SELL 106500, SL 108000, TP 98000

​

Bitcoin is once again making an attempt to push higher toward uncharted highs. Although this recent upward move still fits within the bounds of the previously considered bearish scenario, any continued rise beyond current levels may require a reassessment of the outlook.
For now, the current rally appears to be corrective — most likely a zigzag structure. If this assumption holds, the market should soon reverse lower from current levels, initiating a third wave within a broader bearish impulse. Such a development could result in significant downside, especially if the broader correction intensifies.

Therefore, the current situation continues to offer favorable conditions for initiating short positions, with a clear risk/reward profile.

Investment idea: SELL 106500, SL 108000, TP 98000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 18, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

12:00 EET. EUR - Consumer Price Index

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

EURUSD:


​

Declining confidence in the US economy amid trade policy is undermining the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). Data released by the US Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that US retail sales fell 0.9% m/m in May, compared to a 0.1% decline (revised from +0.1%) recorded in April. The figure was weaker than estimates of -0.7%. Meanwhile, US industrial production in May declined 0.2% m/m vs. 0.1% previously (revised from 0%), worse than expectations of 0.1%.

Traders expect the US Federal Reserve to leave borrowing costs unchanged at its June meeting on Wednesday. Markets now estimate a nearly 80% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September and then another in October, according to Reuters.

The mood of European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers is supportive of the common currency. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rate cuts are coming to an end as the central bank is now in a “good position” to deal with the current uncertainty.

Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye on geopolitical risks. Israel is set to step up strikes on Tehran, while the US is considering expanding its role amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1460, SL 1.1560, TP 1.1260

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