Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Short term Elliott wave view in NASDAQ (NQ_F) suggests the Index ended the cycle up from February 1, 2020 low in wave 1 at 9687.50 high. The index then corrected that cycle up in wave 2 as a zig-zag. Wave ((a)) of 2 ended at 9655.50 low. The bounce in wave ((b)) ended at 9669.25 high. It then resumed lower in wave ((c)) of 2, which ended at 9536.85 low. The index has since broken above wave 1 high and has resumed higher in wave 3. The internal subdivision is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure.

Up from wave 2 low at 9536.85, Wave i of (i) ended at 9677.75 high. It then corrected in wave ii and ended at 9652.25 low. From there, wave iii rally ended at 9748.75 high and wave iv pullback ended at 9719.75 low. The index then resumed higher and ended wave v of (i) at 9763 high. Currently, the index is doing a pullback in wave (ii) to correct the cycle from February 18 low (9536.85). While above 9536.85 low, the dip is expected to continue finding support in 3,7, or 11 swings for further upside.

NASDAQ (NQ_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
Nasdaq 1 hour Asia update 2.20.2020
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Bausch Health (Ticker: BHC) reported Q4 revenue of $2.22 billion, which is a 5% YoY increase. The result was slightly higher than the consensus estimate of $2.2 billion. The company also reported a $1.51 billion net loss, or $4.3 per share using Generally Accepted Accounting Principle (GAAP). This is a significant drop compared to the net loss of $344 million, or 0.98 per share in Q4 2018. Non-GAAP Q4 net income rose to $404 million, a 10% YoY increase or $1.15 per share. This compared to non-GAAP earnings of $1.05 / share in Q4 2018.

The GAAP net loss in Q4 is primarily due to the accrual of legal reserves for litigation. The company sets up this reserves to settle a Valeant stock drop lawsuit that hit investors in 2015. The non-GAAP EPS adjusted out this figure which brings the profit up. Moving forward, the company gave a guidance of a full year revenue of $8.65 - 8.86 billion in 2020. The guidance on Adjusted Earnings before interest rates, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) came at $3.5 - 3.65 billion.

BHC Daily Elliott Wave Chart
Bausch Health (BHC) Daily Elliott Wave chart

Daily Elliot Wave chart above suggests the stock has incomplete sequence from 4.24.2017 low. A 100% extension from April 2017 should see the stock reaching $37.2 - $42 area. Furthermore, if we are correct that the rally from 4.24.2017 low to 10.3.2018 high is in 5 waves diagonal, then we also need at least a 5 waves move higher from 12.26.2018 low ($17.17). So far the rally from $17.17 low is only in 3 waves, thus another leg higher is possible as far as the stock stays above $17.17.

BHC 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Looking at the 4 hour chart above, decline from wave ((3)) high on 12.13.2019 appears corrective. It has overlapping characteristic and stays within a well-defined channel. The cycle from 12.13.2019 high now shows a complete 100% extension in 7 swing at the blue box. As far as the invalidation level at $18.75 low holds, the stock has a chance to start bouncing soon in 3 waves at least if not extending higher.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Virgin Galactic ($SPCE) has had an impressive rally after setting all time lows after its IPO in the fall of 2019 and continues to impress as it extends the rally in a wave ((3)) impulse. Up from the 11/25/19 lows at 6.90, SPCE ended a 5 waves cycle on 1/3/20 at 11.90 in wave ((1)) and favoured to have ended wave ((2)) on 1/6/20 at 11.06 in a shallow correction. From there a nest blue (1) cycle ended on 1/22/20 at 19.83 and blue (2) is favoured bottomed on 1/27/20 at 15.61. From there a further nest in the form of a red 1-2 and ((i))-((ii)) has been set and a wave ((iii)) breakout occurred on 2/10/20. Wave ((iii))-((iv)) is favoured complete with a red 3 top in place on 2/20/20 at 40.49 with a red 4 currently underway. The wave count sequence is currently incomplete and can still reach higher before topping for a red I cycle.

It is important to realize that FOMO/MOMO is behind an extended impulse like this and using proper risk management is absolutely essential when trading or investing in a stock such as SPCE that has enjoyed 500% gains since the lows on 11/25/19. The Elliott Wave counts can evolve quickly, be sure to have your stops in and define your risk when trading and investing.



 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of GBPUSD, published in members area of the website. As our members know GBPUSD has incomplete bearish sequences in the cycle from the 12/13 peak. The pair is targeting 1.2668 area ideally . Consequently, we advised members to avoid buying the pair and keep on favoring the short side. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast.

GBPUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 2.17.2020
The cycle from the December 13th peak looks incomplete, calling for further decline in the pair. The pair is bearish against the 1.1172 pivot in the first degree. Wave 4 bounce looks completed at the 1.3069 high as Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern. Now, we would like to see further separation from that high and ideally break below 02/10 low to confirm next leg down is in progress.

You can learn more about Elliott Wave Zig Zag Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 2.20.2020
Eventually , GBPUSD gave us decline and made separation from the 1.3069 high. However 02/10 still needs to get broken in order to confirm further weakness in the pair. Next technical area to the downside comes at the marked blue box :1.2865-1.2815. At that zone intraday sellers should be ideally taking profits, which will allow the pair to make short term bounce.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 2.24.2020
GBPUSD has finally broken 02/10 low. Decline reached blue box area at 1.2865-1.2815 and we got short term bounce as expected. At this stage short term bounce ((b)) looks completed at the 1.2982 high and next leg down can be in progress.

Keep in mind turning Black arrows shows the path we prefer , but highest probability path is not the same as highest probability trade which is why we focus on green / red right side tags or bullish / bearish sequence combined with blue boxes to trade.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 2.2.2020
The pair broke 1.2982 high and took alternatively path. Current view suggests wave 4 red recovery is still in progress. Now the price is showing 5 swings up from the lows, calling potentially for more short term strength toward 1.3032-1.3103. At that zone sellers should appear ideally for 3 waves pull back at least. Proposed extension up is not guaranteed and buying the pair against the main bearish trend is not recommended.

Keep in mind Market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

GBPUSD

Elliott Wave Forecast
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Short term Elliott wave view in Nikkei (NKD_F) suggests the Index is doing a larger degree pullback to correct the cycle up from August 26, 2019 low in wave IV, which is unfolding as a flat. Wave ((A)) of IV ended at 22630 low and wave ((B)) ended at 24030 high. From there, it has extended lower in wave ((C)), which is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((B)) high, wave (1) ended at 23090 low. The bounce in wave (2) ended at 23803 high.

After that, the index extended lower in wave (3) which subdivides in lesser degree 5 waves. Wave 1 of (3) ended at 23415 low and wave 2 ended at 23635 high. The index continued lower in wave 3, which ended at 22165 low. Then, the bounce in wave 4 ended at 22365 high. The push lower in wave 5 of (3) ended at 22075 low. From there, the index then bounced in wave (4), which ended at 22735 high. Near term, the index has reached the 100% extension area from December 17, 2019 high between 21483-22489. However, expect another leg lower before the cycle from December 17 high ends in wave IV as long as 23803 pivot stays intact. Afterwards, the index should see a larger 3 waves bounce at least from the blue box area.

Nikkei (NKD_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
Nikkei 1 hour Asia update 2.25.2020
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Short term Elliott wave view in GDX ETF suggests the rally from January 14, 2020 low in wave (3) has ended at 31.98 high. The cycle unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from January 14 low, wave ((i)) ended at 28.67 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 27.92. The ETF resumed higher in wave ((iii)) which ended at 30.10. After that, wave ((iv)) pullback ended at 29.50 and the final leg wave ((v)) of C ended at 31.98.

Currently, the ETF is correcting that cycle in wave (4). The correction is unfolding as a zig-zag. Wave A of (4) has ended at 30.41 and subdivides in lesser degree 5 waves. Wave ((i)) of A ended at 31.10 and wave ((ii)) ended at 31.74. The ETF then continued lower in wave ((iii)), which ended at 30.66. Then, the bounce in wave ((iv)) ended at 31.14. The push lower in wave ((v)) ended at 30.41. From there, the ETF then bounced in wave B, which ended at 31.16. Potential area to end wave C of (4)) is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from February 24 high which comes at 28.64 – 29.60 area. From this area, GDX can then extend higher or at least bounce in 3 waves.

GDX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
GDX 1 hour post market 2.25.2020
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Beyond Meat Inc (NASDAQ: BYND) is a producer of plant-based meat substitutes including products designed to simulate chicken, beef, and pork sausage.

After IPO, BYND surged 250% for 3 months then it came down erasing all gains and settling around 15% on December 2019. Last month, the stock soared 46% looking to start a new cycle similar to last year. So let's take a look at the Elliott Wave Structure for the stock.

The initial rally from May 2019 low unfolded as an impulsive 5 waves advance establishing the main bullish trend which reached a high of $245.9 before that cycle ended. Based on Elliott Wave Theory , after the 5 waves advance, a 3 waves pullback would follow and that's exactly what took place as BYND started a corrective 3 waves Zigzag Structure which ended on December 2019 at $71.3.

Up from there, BYND started another impulsive advance looking to resume the rally within the main trend which was established last year, therefore current correction is expected to remain supported above $71.3 low for the stock to rally higher and aim for a potential new all time highs. Currently, BYND can be looking for a 7 swings corrective structure to take it lower toward equal legs area $96 - $88 from where buyers are expected to show up for the stock to resume the rally higher or bounce in 3 waves at least.

Beyond Meat BYND Daily 2.24.2020
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Short term Elliott Wave view in E-mini S&P 500 (ES_F) suggests the Index ended the cycle up from June 3, 2019 low in wave ((3)) at 3397.50 high. The index is correcting that cycle in wave ((4)) as a double correction. Wave A of (W) ended at 3339.50 low. The bounce in wave B ended at 3375 high. It then resumed lower in wave C, which ended at 3213.75 low. The index then bounced higher in wave (X) and ended at 3261.50 high.

Down from wave (X) high, the index resumed lower in wave A of (Y) and ended at 3091 low. The internal subdivision of wave A unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 3220.25 low. It then bounced in wave ((ii)) and ended at 3247.25 high. From there, wave ((iii)) extended lower and ended at 3117.25 low and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 3158.50 high. The index then resumed lower and ended wave ((v)) at 3091 low. Up from wave A low, wave B bounced higher and ended at 3182 high. Currently, the index is continuing lower in wave C of (Y). Wave ((i)) remains in progress followed by a bounce in wave ((ii)) later. While below 3261.50 high, the bounce in 3,7, or 11 swings is expected to fail. The index can see more downside to complete wave ((4)) correction before upside resumes. Potential area to end wave C of ((4)) is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension of wave A-B which comes at 2974-3014 area.

E-mini S&P 500 (ES_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
ES_F 1 hour Asia update 2.27.2020
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Short term Elliott Wave view in Dow Futures (YM_F) suggests the Index ended the cycle up from October 3, 2011 low in wave (III) at 29543 high. The index is correcting that cycle in wave (IV) as a zig-zag. Wave a of (IV) ended at 26692 low. The internal subdivision of wave a unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((1)) of a ended at 29100 and the bounce in wave ((2)) ended at 29434. The index then extended lower in wave ((3)), which ended at 26976 low and followed by a bounce in wave ((4)), which ended at 27333 high. The index then pushed lower in wave ((5)) and ended at 26692 low. From there, the index bounced in wave b and ended at 27519 high.

Down from wave b high, the index resumed lower in wave c, which is still in progress. Wave ((1)) of c ended at 26468 low. It then bounced in wave ((2)) and ended at 26859 high. From there, the index extended lower in wave ((3)), which subdivides in lesser degree 5 waves. Wave (1) of ((3)) ended at 25979 low and the bounce in wave (2) ended at 26754 high. Down from there, wave (3) resumed lower and ended at 25379 low. Wave (4) bounce then ended at 25772 high. Currently, wave (5) of ((3)) remains in progress and will be followed by a bounce in wave ((4)) when completed later. While below 27519 high, the bounce in 3,7, or 11 swings is expected to fail. The index can see more downside to complete wave (IV) correction before upside resumes. Potential area where wave c can end is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave a-b which comes at 23349-24943 area.

INDU (YM_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
YM_F 1 hour Asia update 2.28.20
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Hello fellow traders. USDSGD is another forex pair that we have been trading lately . In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of USDSGD , published in members area of the website. As our members know, USDSGD is showing bullish impulsive sequences in the cycle from the 12/31 low calling for further rally. Consequently, we advised members to avoid selling USDSGD and keep on buying the dips in the sequences of 3,7,or 11 swings whenever get chance. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast and Trading strategy.

USDSGD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 2.11.2020
Current view suggests the cycle from the 1.3437 low remains in progress as 5 waves structure. Currently we're doing wave (4) blue pull back that is labeled as Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern. Correction is already showing 3 waves down from the peak. However we believe another minor swing down can be seen to complete 5 waves down in C red leg . At the marked Blue Box area : 1.38542-1.38229 area we expect buyers to appear for proposed rally or 3 waves bounce at least. We don’t recommend selling it and favor the long side. As the main trend is bullish, we expected to get a 3 waves bounce from the Blue Box at least. As soon as the price reaches 50 Fibs against the B red high, we should make Long Positions risk free.

You can learn more about Elliott Wave Zig Zag Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

USDSGD

USDSGD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 2.17.2020
The pair gave us another minor swing down toward blue box and completed pull back at the 1.3846 low. Buyers were strong enough to break above previous peak, confirming next leg up is in progress. Now as far as 1.3846 low holds, we expect further rally in the pair. Members who took long trades from the Blue Boxes should be already risk free.

USDSGD

USDSGD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 2.28.2020
1.3846 low held nicely during the short term pull back and we got further rally in the pair as expected. Current view suggests USDSGD ended 12/31 cycle at the 1.40877 peak as 5 waves structure. Short term structure from that high can be unfolding as Elliott Wave Diagonal.
Some labels have been removed from the chart in order to protect clients' privileges. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

USDSGD

Elliott Wave Forecast
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis

On February 25/2020 I posted on social media (Stocktwits/Twitter) @AidanFX "$AUDUSD watch for selling opportunities for extension lower ."

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart 2.25.2020 : The chart below was also posted on social media (StockTwits/Twitter) @AidanFX February 25/2020 showing that a bearish descending triangle breakout pattern (blue) was forming. I called for traders to watch for SELLS on the break below the triangle as long as price respects the moving average (light blue).

AUDUSD, forex, technical analysis, trading, elliottwave, aidanfx

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart 2.26.2020 : Price respects the moving average and breaks below the triangle pattern triggering the bearish pattern SELLS. Momentum and trend indicators also confirmed the SELLS. After the break, price instantly moves lower and hits the first target $$$.

AUDUSD, forex, technical analysis, trading, elliottwave, aidanfx

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart 2.28.2020 : After the first SELL target hit, price bounces higher back to the SELL entry level where it was met with the previous support zone which now became a new resistance zone. Also in this area, a bearish divergence (purple) formed which allowed a trader to feel positive on continuing to hold the SELL trade. Price reverses and continues the move lower eventually hitting the 2nd target $$$. If you followed me on Twitter/Stocktwits you too could have caught the AUDUSD move lower.

AUDUSD, forex, technical analysis, trading, elliottwave, aidanfx

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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AUDJPY Technical Analysis

Every trader should always view the market in the "bigger picture" first. Viewing the market starting from a higher time frame down to a lower time frame will offer a trader a clearer picture of the markets and will also allow a trader to ultimately decide which side to trade.

AUDJPY Daily Chart : September 2019 the pair started a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. During this move higher a clear visible bearish wedge breakout pattern formed and terminated at the end of December 2019. Start of 2020 the pair dipped lower then bounced and registered the first lower high which led to a break below the bottom trend line of the wedge pattern signalling that bears/sellers were taking control. A new lower low registered at the end of January 2020 signalling that a possible new trend lower was starting. Price was also trading below the 50 moving average which was another signal for traders to continue looking for SELL opportunities. In February 2020 price retests the 50 moving average and failed to move above it. At the same time, price also entered a support/resistance zone which added more bears to enter the market. After price respected the 50 moving average, I marked the key breakout level (pink) where bears will take back control and push the pair lower. By seeing all this develop on the Daily Chart, before the start of the February 23-28 2020 trading week, a trader would know that the trade setup to watch for was selling AUDJPY.

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AUDJPY 1 Hour Chart : Once price broke below the key level (pink) the first bearish momentum breakout pattern formed. A bearish momentum breakout pattern requires 3 steps to trigger a SELL. First, a low on price chart forms simultaneously with a low below the 20 level on the Stochastic indicator. Second, a pullback in price that respects the 50 moving average together with a move higher above the 20 level on the Stochastic indicator. And third, SELL on the move below the first step low breakout level only if price respected the 50 moving average and watch for Stochastic indicator to register back below the 20 level to confirm momentum. In the 1 Hour chart below, there were clear multiple breakout selling opportunities where a trader could have sold. AUDJPY moved over 350 pips lower (approximately) during the February 23-28 trading week.

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Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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AUDJPY sank to 11 year low last week as the market is pricing in a drastically lower Australia's growth outlook. The coronavirus outbreak around the world has disrupted everything from travel, supply chain, and daily activities. The virus first originated in Wuhan, China and has infected 81,000 people globally and killed more than 2700 people. Most cases happened in China, forcing the Chinese government to quarantine whole cities and closing up factories.

Australian Dollar suffers heavy losses against other major currencies as it has strong trading ties with China. In addition, Australia is also dealing with other issues such as drought and bush fires. Three areas in particular likely will be the hardest hit: Exports, education, and tourism. In the area of exports, China buys 34% of the total Australia exports and the big purchases include iron ore and coal. As factories in China remain closed or only partially opens, the demand for coal and iron ore declines.

In the area of education, Australian universities will lose significant portion of revenue as Australian government introduces ban to non-resident foreigners from China. If China can't contain the virus in the next few months, Australian universities will lose significant source of revenue. The ban also affect tourism as Chinese visitors account for 27% of the tourism industry. Virus cases are now spreading to other parts of the world. The countries outside China which has the biggest infections so far are Italy, South Korea, and Iran. The U.S. has started to expect the disease to reach and spread over the U.S. in the weeks to come. The full global economic damage has not fully materialized, but the market has started to price in the impact.

AUDJPY Shows Bearish Elliott Wave Sequence
AUDJPY at 11 Year Low Amidst Coronavirus Fear

AUDJPY shows an incomplete sequence from April 11, 2013 peak favoring further downside to reach 49.4 - 57.1 area to end a 7 swing sequence. Last week, the pair broke below the previous low on August 2019 (71) suggesting the next leg lower has resumed. The pair technically suggests Australian Dollar likely continues to see selling pressure and any rally therefore should fail in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing.

EURAUD Shows Bullish Elliott Wave Sequence


EURAUD shows an incomplete sequence from July 2012 low favoring more upside to reach 1.858 - 1.976 to end a double zigzag structure. Last week, pair broke above December 2018 high (1.679) suggesting the next leg higher has started. Near term, expect dips to continue to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside in the pair. This pair also suggests Australian Dollar should continue to be under pressure.

Conclusion
Concern on economic impact as the result pf worldwide coronavirus infection has put pressure on Australian Dollar. Being the largest trading partner of China, Australia likely will suffer economic pain in the first quarter of 2020. The RBA has also expressed willingness to cut interest rate further thus further putting pressure to Australian Dollar. The Elliott Wave technical outlook in AUDJPY and EURAUD also support a lower Australian Dollar.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Peloton ($PTON) had a very nice run before topping December 2019, and could be ready for the next leg up. The caveat with analyzing companies that have recently gone public is there is not much history to analyze. However, the structure that Peloton has produced since hitting the all time lows suggests the next bull run could be in the early stages of development and could provide an opportunity to get long.

Elliott Wave Overview
Peloton set all time lows on Oct 23/19 at 24.06 and from there has developed a bullish sequence. Wave ((1)) topped at 26.50 and ((2)) bottomed at 22.25. From there wave ((3)) topped at 32.01 and (4) bottomed at 27.75. Wave ((5)) of Red I topped at 37.02 on December 2/2019. Peloton then corrected that cycle up in the form a Double Zig Zag where ((W)) bottomed at 25.67 on December 27/19, ((X)) topped at 34.60 on Feb 4/20 and ((Y)) of Red II bottomed at 24.52 on February 24/20. An Equal legs extreme area measured from ((W))-((X)) where buyers could enter for a bounce was not hit, and instead buyers came in prior to the extreme area. As long as price action is above the 24.52 lows, the 1h is turning up and dips in 3, 7, and 11 waves should continue to be bought. Should price fall below the recent low of 24.52 then Red II would be seen as extending down and the equal legs blue box should provide an area where buyers can enter.



In the near term, Peloton is working on breaking out into a Blue (3) of ((1)) with a 161.8% extension target of 35.28 where a pullback for wave blue (4) should take place before heading to wave blue (5) of ((1)).

 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Short term view suggests the rally in Palladium to 2814.25 ended wave (3). The wave (4) decline in Palladium is currently in progress to correct cycle from May 13, 2019 low before the rally resumes. Internal of wave (4) is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from Feb 28, 2020 high (2814.25) , wave ((a)) ended at 2610.1 and bounce in wave ((b)) ended at 2740. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 2387.30 which completed wave W of the double three.

Afterwards, the metal ended the rally in wave X at 2576.9. It has resumed lower and broken below wave W at 2387.3 suggesting the next leg lower has started. Down from wave X high at 2576.9, wave (a) ended at 2391 and wave (b) bounce ended at 2465.10. Expect Palladium to extend lower towards 2248 - 2311 area to end wave ((w)), then it should bounce in wave ((x)) to correct cycle from March 2 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before turning lower again.

The potential target for wave Y of (4) can be measured as 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension of W-X which comes at 2045 - 2146. This area, if reached, can see buyers for further upside or 3 waves bounce at least. We don't like selling the proposed decline due to the bullish trend in the higher degree.

PA_F (Palladium) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
Elliott Wave View: Palladium 7 swing Correction In Progress
 

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Domino's Pizza (NYSE: DPZ) is an American multinational pizza restaurant chain. Last month, it reported a strong fourth-quarter revenue and earnings per share and also it surprised investors by posting accelerating sales growth at the close of fiscal 2019. Domino's also said it's increasing its quarterly dividend by 20%, to $0.78 per share.

If we take a look at the daily chart for the stock before Earnings report, we can notice based on the Elliott Wave Theory, that DPZ was trading within a corrective structure since August 2018. The move lower unfolded as a Double Three structure which reached it's target area at equal legs $227 - $209 before finding buyers then reacting higher with an impulsive rally.

We believe the market is ruled by technical aspect and the news is an after-fact event to drive the market into the pre-determined direction which was in this case higher as it managed to create a higher high sequence from August 2019 low just before the release of it's Earnings report.

DPZ Daily Chart Before Earnings Report
DPZ Daily Before ER

As a result, the stock soared last month +30% breaking out of the 2 years sideways range and taking 2018 peak. The move higher opened new weekly bullish sequence for DPZ as the previous impulsive 5 waves advance is suggesting a similar cycle should follow with a minimum target at 100% fib ext area $525. Consequently, the stock will be looking to remain supported above 2019 low $220 and investors can be looking for corrective pullbacks in 3 , 7 or 11 swings to join the new bullish cycle.

DPZ Weekly Chart
Domino's Pizza DPZ Weekly
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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The 2009 cycle is ending across the World Indices. Many Indices show five waves already since the lows, but some have been weak since the previous peak sometimes around 2018. Indices like $FTSE, among others, are reaching the Blue Box area since 2018. The following chart shows the extreme area in $FTSE:

FTSE Reaching Extreme Area from 2018 High


The Above chart shows the extreme area since the 2018 peak and the proposed bouncing area (the blue box). The bounce in FTSE can make some Indices and stocks to trade into new highs since 2009. We do understand that within the big market spectrum, not every Index will move and make the same highs and lows. However, they will trade together to some degree. This concept is called the second dimension, which is when the instrument agrees in swing direction, but not in overall direction. Home Depot INC (HD) for example is still trading within the 2008 cycle. Below is the monthly chart of Home Depot:

Home Depot (HD) Monthly Elliott Wave Chart

Above chart shows the rally in Home Depot since all-time low develops into an Impulse with the minimum amount of swings in place. The red degree (Cycle degree) is clearly showing five waves, which makes the longs at risk, but the persistent strength until this point makes the case still to reach the $267.00-$282.00 area. It is evident that soon the 2008 cycle will end sometimes this year, but as far as the Elliott wave channel remains in place, more upside should be happening. Below chart shows the channel:

Home Depot Weekly Elliott Wave Chart


Above weekly chart shows the rally since 12.2018 low, the Elliott wave channel and future path into the $267.00 area. As of right now, last week's drop still can be a wave ((4)). As far as it does not overlap the peak at 02.25.2019, more upside can still happen either as a regular impulse or diagonal. Very Interesting scenarios are developing across the Market, knowing where to stand is critical. At this moment, we enter 2020 knowing that cycle from 2009 should be ending. Trading the long side across World Indices needs to come with a little defense in place.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Short term Elliott Wave view in Gold (XAU) suggests the rally from August 2018 low in wave III has ended at 1689.30 high. Gold then corrected that cycle in wave IV as a zig-zag. Wave ((A)) of IV ended at 1624.80 low. The bounce in wave ((B)) unfolded as a flat correction and ended at 1660.37 high. From there, gold extended lower in wave ((C)) to end wave IV. The move lower in wave ((C)) ended at 1564.75 low and reached the blue box area. Up from wave IV low on February 28, gold has extended higher as a 5 waves impulsive structure in wave ((1)).

Wave (1) of ((1)) ended at 1610.99 high and wave (2) pullback ended at 1583.78 low. Wave (3) rally then ended at 1652.81 high. The pullback in wave (4) ended at 1631.70 low. Currently, wave (5) remains in progress, which subdivides in lesser degree 5 waves. Wave 1 of (5) ended at 1649.38 high and wave 2 pullback ended at 1633.50. The metal then rallied higher in wave 3 and ended at 1676.50 high. Near term, the metal is doing a pullback in wave 4 before another push higher in wave 5 to end wave (5). Afterwards, wave ((2)) pullback should happen before the rally continues. While above 1564.75 low, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swings for more upside.

Gold (XAU) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
Gold 1 hour Asia update 3.6.2020
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Gilead Sciences ($GILD) showing signs that it may be in the beginning stages of new bullish cycle. The Long term chart shows a completed bullish sequence in 5 waves for Blue (I) which topped on June 22/2015 at 123.37. From there a corrective sequence took place for Blue (II) which bottomed on Dec 26/2018 at 60.32. From there a new bullish cycle may be starting with an equal legs area of 183.78 to 260.01 for Blue (III).

Gilead Sciences Elliott Wave Monthly View
Gilead Sciences

On a 4h view, wave ((1)) topped on Feb 1/2019 at 70.50. A lengthy wave ((2)) then took place in the form of a double zig zag correction. Wave ((2)) bottomed on Oct 3/19 at 60.89 and from there some nesting has started. Blue wave (1) is set on Oct 24/19 at 66.75 and Blue (2) with an expanded flat correction is set on Jan 21/20 at 62.23. From there another 5 waves up has been set, for a nesting red 1-2 taking place. Price action suggests a wave 3 break out is imminent.

Gilead Sciences Elliott Wave 4H View
Gilead Sciences

The Corona Virus (COVID-19) has brought a lot of attention to Gilead recently. However, the Elliott Wave analysis suggests that Gilead Sciences had a bullish setup before the virus surfaced. The momentum from the virus may be but one small element that helps push Gilead to new all time highs.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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We always refer a lot to the blue boxes which are often shown on our charts and define them as High-Frequency areas which are based in a relationship of sequences, cycles and calculated using extensions. Traders are always looking for answers and news to decide what to do next, whether to buy or sell, whereas we are always looking for the Blue Boxes and the relationship between Instruments, cycles, and sequences to guide members into the next trading opportunity. Our motto is do not trade the hype, trade the sequences and technical levels. We believe it's the patterns and the cycles which determine the next move in the market and news only acts as a trigger to start the move in that direction or acts a catalyst and make it happen more quickly than it would have happened under normal circumstances. In this article, we would look at the forecast of Sugar for the past few months or so and how it reacted after reaching the blue box area that we had highlighted on the chart.

Sugar (SB_F) Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 12.1.2019
Sugar daily chart below shows that it completed a 5 waves decline at $9.91 on August 22, 2018. This 5 waves Elliott wave impulse started back in September 2016 @ $24.12 After an impulse lower, a recovery should take place in either 3, 7 or 11 swings which is the corrective sequence of the market. In the chart below, we can see Sugar already did a 3 waves recovery to $14.24 and then pull back in 3 waves to $10.68 and started pushing higher again. As the decline from $14.24 was a corrective 3 waves decline and the rally from $10.68 low was in 5 waves, we called another leg higher toward $15.02 - $17.73 area to finish the correction from $9.91 low.

Sugar Elliott Wave Analysis 8 December 2019
Sugar (SB_F) Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 02.02.2020

Chart below shows Sugar continued the rally as expected and has almost reached the blue box area that we showed back in December 2019. As it was nearly at the blue box area, we changed the preferred wave count from a 3-3-5 FLAT structure to a double three Elliott wave structure. It was still possible for Sugar to correct the cycle from October 2019 low and make another high to become 5 waves up from $10.68 and a FLAT from August 2018 low. In either case, blue box highlighted the extreme area up from August 2018 low and we expected the bounce to finish in this area and the decline to resume either for a new low below August 2018 low or a larger 3 waves pull back at least.

Sugar Elliott Wave Analysis 2.2.2020






Sugar (SB_F) Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 03.08.2020

Sugar chart below shows it reached the blue box and has started reacting lower as expected. Sellers were waiting in the blue box and have started pushing prices lower. Decline from the peak is so far in 3 waves but is beginning to look impulsive. If it does manage to complete 5 waves decline from the peak at $15.92, that would add conviction to the view that next leg lower to break below $9.91 low is already in progress. In either case, we have already seen the minimum reaction lower from the blue box which reached 50% Fibonacci retracemne of the rally from black ((X)) low at $10.68 which means any sellers which entered in the blue box should already be in a risk free position.

Sugar Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 3.8.2020