Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

Elliottwave-Forecast

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JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) is the largest bank in the United State. It is a multinational banking and financial service provider that was formed as a result of a merger of several banking companies in 1996.

The Banking sector took its biggest hit during the financial crisis in 2008 as many banks announced bankruptcy and other barley managed to survive .However, based on performance of the top 5 US Banks over the past 12 years, JPM outperformed the Banks industry as it managed to double its stock price above 2007 peak while the rest are struggling to recover against the same peak. Let's take a look at the monthly chart of JPM.

JPM Long-term Elliott Wave Analysis
JPM Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 1.29.2020

Looking at the Monthly chart for JPM, we understand that 2008 crash was just part of a larger 9 years 3 waves Elliott wave correction which started in 2000 and then ended at 2009 low. Up from there, the stock started rallying higher in an impulsive 5 waves structure making new all time highs along the way.

Based on Elliott Wave Theory, JPM is trading within the wave ((III)) which is considered as the strongest leg in the entire cycle and therefore the stock will be seeking further gains until it ends the cycle from 2009 low. Currently, JPM is advancing in wave V of wave (III) which should be followed by a pullback in wave (IV) to correct the cycle from 2011 low and then the stock should continue higher again to complete wave ((III)) to complete the cycle from 2009 low. Let's take a look at the daily chart to see structure of the rally within the red wave V and some upside targets.

JPM Daily Chart - Cycle from December 2018 low
JPM Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 1.29.2020

Looking at the structure of rally from December 2018, red IV low, it seems the market is in need of another high to complete wave ((3)) and then it should pull back in wave ((4)) to correct the cycle from wave ((2)) low and turn higher in wave ((5)) to complete red wave V. Alternatively, if it fails to make a new high above 141.10, then it should already be in wave ((4)) and buyers should appear again for the next leg higher.

JPM Daily Chart - Cycle from December 2018 low - Alternate view
JPM Daily chart - alt view
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Elliott wave view in Silver (ticker: XAGUSD) suggests that the sequence from January 8, 2020 high remains incomplete. As such, the metal still has scope to see more downside to reach the 100 - 123.6% Fibonacci extension towards 16.77 - 17.07 area before stronger support is seen. The decline from January 8 high is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 18.85 on January 8 high, wave W ended at 17.58 and wave X bounce ended at 18.35.

Silver has since turned lower and broken below wave W a 17.58, suggesting that wave Y has started. Down from 18.35, wave (i) ended at 17.94, and wave (ii) bounce ended at 18.1. Silver then resumed lower in wave (iii) towards 17.42 and wave (iv) bounce ended at 17.53. Finally, the last leg lower wave (v) ended at 17.36 which also completed wave ((a)). Wave ((b)) bounce is in progress to correct cycle from January 27 high (18.35) in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing before the decline resumes. As far as pivot at 18.35 high stays intact, the metal still has scope to extend lower again towards 16.77 - 17.07 area before buyers appear.

Silver (XAGUSD) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
Elliott Wave View: Silver Has Scope for More Downside
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of 1 hour Elliott Wave Charts of IYR, which we presented to members at elliottwave-forecast. In which, the rally from 16 December 2019 low ($89.40) showed an impulse structure. Thus suggested that it’s a continuation pattern. And as per Elliott wave theory after a 3 waves pullback, it should do another extension higher in 5 waves impulse structure at least. Therefore, we advised members not to sell the instrument & trade the no enemy areas ( blue boxes) as per Elliott wave hedging remained the preferred path looking for 3 wave reaction higher at least. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

IYR 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 1/2/2020
IYR Elliott Wave View: Buying The Wave 2 Pullback

IYR 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 1/2/2020 Post-Market update. In which the ETF ended the 5 wave impulse rally in wave 1 at $93.54 high. Down from there, the ETF made a wave 2 pullback. The internals of that pullback was expected to unfold as a zigzag structure. While wave ((a)) ended at $91.60 low. Wave ((b)) ended at $93.19 high. Wave ((c)) was expected to see a move lower towards $91.24-$90.04 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of ((a))-((b)). From where the buyers were expected to appear in the ETF looking for another 5 waves rally. Or to do a 3 wave reaction higher at least.

IYR 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 1/12/2020
IYR Elliott Wave View: Buying The Wave 2 Pullback

IYR 1 Hour Chart from 1/12/2020 Weekend update. In which the ETF managed to reach the blue box area at $91.24-$90.04. And showing reaction higher taking place from the blue box area. Thus allowed our members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the long position from the blue box area. But a break higher above prior wave 1 higher ($93.54) was still needed to confirm the next extension higher.

IYR 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 1/19/2020
IYR Elliott Wave View: Buying The Wave 2 Pullback

Here's 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 1/19/2020 Weekend update. In which the ETF manages to make a new high above $93.54 high and confirmed the next extension higher. It's important to note that the rally from the blue box area also came out in 5 wave impulse structure as we initially suspected. Since then, the ETF has managed to reach the 100% extension area of 1-2 at $95.54 level therefore, thus it reached the targets for longs.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Nvidia is one of those instrument across the market which has ended the Grand super cycle since the all-time low. The advance since the all-time low appears impulse or five waves advance which ended on 10.01.2018. As the Elliott Wave Theory explains, after five waves, there will be three waves pullback. The Instrument turned lower and did seven swings lower until 12.24.2018, as we show in the following chart.

$NVDA Weekly Elliott Wave Outlook


Now the moment of truth will happen within the next few months when most of the World Indices will end the cycle from 2009, as we show in the following chart of the $SPY:



A wave (IV) should happen in 2020, which without a question will affect the path or strength of Nvidia. However, there will be more upside after wave (IV) ends due to a couple of reasons. First of all, $SPY shows 161.8% Fibonacci extension from all-time lows above the 319.00 area, which supports the Impulsive structure. Secondly, Index like $XJO-ASX (Benchmark for Australian equity performance.) shows a bullish sequence within the Grand Super Cycle, as shown in the following chart:



The idea is that the Indices will remain supported. As of right now, we do not know how much and how long wave V in $SPY will extend. This is one of the main reasons we take the more aggressive view and call the wave ((II)) pullback in Nvidia completed after only seven swings decline. We know that even if Nvidia does not need to make five waves from 12.2018 low, Indices like $SPY, $SPX among others need to, so we believe Nvidia will follow and break 2018, creating a nest and huge opportunity.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Short term Elliott wave view in Dow Jones Future (YM_F) suggests that the Index has ended wave ((4)) correction at 28411. The internal of wave ((4)) unfolded as a double zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave (W) of ((4)) ended at 28796, wave (X) of ((4)) ended at 29007, and wave (Y) of ((4)) ended at 28411. The Index has resumed higher in wave ((5)) with subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 28411, wave 1 ended at 2888 and wave 2 pullback ended at 28432.

Near term, while dips stay above 28411 in the first degree, expect the Index to resume higher. The Index still needs to break above previous wave ((3)) high on January 17 at 29362 to avoid a double correction. As an alternate, Index can do a larger double correction within wave ((4)). In this alternate case, the current rally may end at 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension from January 27 low at 28913 - 29027 as a zigzag. From here, the Index can then turn lower again. We show the most aggressive view to go with the trend and call wave ((4)) ended. As far as pivot at 28411 low remains intact, Index should extend higher.

YM_F 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
Elliott Wave View: Dow Jones Futures (YM_F) Ended Correction
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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The Emerging Market (EEM) trade within the same cycles as World Indices. However, when comparing it to Indices like $SPY and $SPX, EEM lag behind after it bottomed in 11.2008. Looking at the Grand Super Cycle price action, EEM peaked in 10.2007 then dropped hard along with other Indices. It bottomed in 11.2008 and since then it has rallied in three big waves. Many World Indices have already traded above the 10.2007, but EEM is lagging. In the chart overlay below, EEM is in blue color while SPY is in black color. We can see how $SPY already broke above the peak in 10.2007, but EEM is still trading below the peak.



As we can see fro the blue line above, the reaction higher in EEM is only in three waves. However, World Indices should still see more upside within the 2009 Super Cycle degree, and this leads us believe that EEM can break the 2018 peak and creates a leading diagonal from 11.2008 low. A Leading Diagonal is a sequence of 5-3-5-3-5, which most of the time happens in wave I of a new cycle. The Following chart illustrates the leading diagonal idea:

Emerging Market Monthly Elliott Wave Outlook
Emerging Market (EEM) Likely Will See New Highs

The chart above shows an advance within the Grand Super Cycle, ending five waves into a peak at 10.2007. The Index then ended the Grand Super Cycle correction wave (b) in 11.2008. From the 2008 lows, the leading diagonal is in progress. We expect that when Indices like $SPY ends wave (III), EEM will end Red wave I Red. Then the world indices will pullback in wave (IV), and EEM will correct in red wave II. This will be an interesting scenario where buyers will be entering into the the powerful wave III. The Alternative view is that 11.2008 low is only wave a, then the three waves rally since 11.2008 is wave b. In this case, a strong selling will be taking place into a Buy.

Emerging Market Weekly Elliott Wave Chart


The above chart is the weekly view, which shows the proposed wave ((3)) since the Blue Box at wave ((2). However, the reaction since 11.2018 low is the key as many World Indices extend and make new highs. The reaction in EEM however are only three waves. We label this three waves like a nest because of the stage in World Indices. There is no question EEM's price action might be corrective, but as far as the 11.2018 low is in place, the above view can happen. There is nothing that indicates a top in World Indices yet, so bulls are still in control in EEM for now.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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The Dollar Index (DXY) continues to be firm and rallies higher since Dec 31.2019 low. Near term, it still has scope to extend higher towards 98.3 - 98.59 area which is the 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension target from December 31, 2019 low. From the above area, it's possible larger 3 waves reaction against US Dollar can happen. Several US Dollar pairs however have already reached the minimum target. Thus, it's getting riskier to chase the US Dollar strength at this stage. We will look at several US Dollar pairs below:

USDCAD Broke Below Sept 2012 Trend Line Which May Point to US Dollar Weakness


Looking at the simple trend line analysis, USDCAD broke below the rising trend line from Sept 2012 low and now rallying to retest the broken trend line. In addition, it's also at the upper channel of the descending trend line from 5.31.2019 high. If pair is unable to break above, then it's possible we could see pair turning lower soon or at least pullback in 3 waves.

USDCAD Has Reached The Minimum Target From 12.31.2019 Low
How Much Farther Will US Dollar Rally?

A partial USDCAD Elliott Wave chart above shows the pair has reached the minimum target at the blue box which is the 100% extension from 12.31.2019 low. We can label the rally as a corrective double three structure. If we combine this observation with the long term trend line above, it's possible to expect the pair to at least react in 3 waves lower as far as pivot at 1.338 high stays intact.

EURUSD Has Reached the Minimum Target from 12.31.2019 High


A partial Elliott Wave count on EURUSD above also shows the pair has reached the minimum 100% target in 3 waves from 12.31.2019 high. Although another extension is still possible in the shorter cycle, but as long as the pair doesn't extend below 1.0916, then it can potentially bounce in 3 waves soon at least. However, if pair extends to 1.091, then the entire decline can become a 5 waves impulse in which the pair is only doing wave 3 from 12.31.2019 high.

NZDUSD Has Reached the Minimum Target to End Cycle from 12.31.2019


A partial count of NZDUSD above also shows the pair has reached the 100% area from 12.31.2019 high. If the structure of the decline is a zigzag, then pair can soon see 3 waves bounce as far as it doesn't extend below 0.638. If it reaches 0.638, then the entire decline can become impulsive.

Conclusion: Looking at several USD pairs above, there's a possibility to see a 3 waves reaction in US Dollar in the near term, provided that the 3 swing move in the pairs above does not extend towards the 1618.6% Fibonacci extension. If it does extend to 1.618 extension, the risk that the move extends as 5 waves in favor of US Dollar will increase.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of CHFJPY, published in members area of the website. As our members know, CHFJPY is showing impulsive structures within the rally from the 108.79 low. We were calling for further extension higher in the pair recently. The pair was expected to made another leg up in wave ((v)) before larger pull back corrects cycle from the 108.79 low. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast.

CHFJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 1.8.2020
Our Elliott Wave view suggests cycle from the 108.79 low is unfolding as 5 waves rally. We believe wave ((iv)) ended at 110.932 low. Short term pull back already shows 3 waves down against that low. As far as the price stays above 110.932 the pair can resume trading higher within wave ((v)).

CHFJPY

CHFJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 1.9.2020
110.932 low held nicely and the pair keep finding buyers we expected. We got nice rally when the price eventually broke above 12/ 30 peak, suggesting next leg higher still can remain in progress. The pair is now bullish in short term. Current short term view suggests cycle from the 110.932 low is unfolding as Impulsive 5 waves rally, when we’re now in wave (iii) blue .

CHFJPY

CHFJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 1.14.2020
As we can see on the chart below, the pair continued to trade higher. The price reached 1.618 fib ext and can be giving us wave (Iv) pull back. After short term correction, another leg up can follow to complete 5 waves up from the mentioned low. We believe cycle from the 108.79 low should be ideally ending soon at 113.61-114.25 area( marked blue box). At the mentioned zone buyers will be taking profits ands ellers should ideally appear. So, the pair can see pull back which will correct the cycle from the 108.79 low.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

CHFJPY

Elliott Wave Forecast
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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In this blog, we are going to take a quick look at the Elliottwave chart of Oil (CL_F). Oil is proposed to be in wave ((C)) which we expect to unfold as a 5 waves move down. The chart from 1.28.2020 New York Midday update showed that Oil has ended wave (3) at 52.15 low. It then bounced in wave (4) as a double correction. Wave W of (4) ended at 53.57 high. Wave X of (4) ended at 52.48 low. From there, we expect Oil to bounce higher to complete wave Y of (4). The 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension of W - X where wave Y can end is between 53.94-54.85 area. We highlighted this area with a blue box. The blue box area is the area where we expect sellers to appear for an extension lower or 3 waves pullback at least.

CL_F 1.28.2020 1 Hour New York Midday Elliott Wave Update
CL_F 1.28.20 Midday

The chart below from 1.30.2020 New York update shows that wave (4) ended at 54.41 high, which is in the blue box area. Afterwards, the price has extended lower and allowed members who sold at the blue box area a risk free trade. The move down broke below wave (3) low, which confirmed that wave (5) is now in progress. As long as wave (4) high at 54.41 stays intact, we expect oil to continue to extend lower to complete wave (5).

CL_F 1.30.2020 1 Hour New York Elliott Wave Update
CL_F 1.30.20 NY

In the latest weekend update from 2.1.2020, Oil continue to extend lower. We also adjusted the count. Wave 1 of (5) now ended at 51.66 low and wave 2 of (5) ended at 53.36 high. Wave 3 of (5) is now in progress. Once it has ended, oil should see a bounce in wave 4. While below 54.41 high, the bounce in 3,7,11 swings is expected to fail. Oil then should see another leg lower to complete the 5 wave move down in wave ((C)).

CL_F 2.1.2020 1 Hour Weekend Elliott Wave Update
CL_F 2.1.20 Weekend Update
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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USDSEK found a low at 9.2929 on December 31, 2019 and rallied in 5 waves to 9.529. This was followed by a 3 waves pull back to 9.439 on January 15, 2020 and then the pair started trading higher again and managed to break above January 13, 2020 high to create an incomplete sequence higher from December 31, 2019 low. Since initial rally from December 31, 2091 low was in 5 waves, we anticipated the pair to be in a zigzag Elliott Wave structure with more upside to come in wave (C). Let's take a look at the charts of USDSEK below to see how the move unfolded.

USDSEK 26 January 4 Hour Elliott Wave Update
USDSEK forex pair completed 5 waves rally in wave (A) at 9.529 and completed wave (B) pull back at 9.439. After this pair managed to break above wave (A) peak to complete an incomplete Zigzag structure up from December 31, 2019 low. A Zigzag is an Elliott Wave structure in which both wave A and C unfold in 5 wave and is also called a 5-3-5 structure. You can learn more about Zigzag Elliott wave structure here. Up from wave (B) low, pair completed wave 1 at 9.538 and completed wave 2 at 9.488 and then broke above wave 1 peak (9.538) indication start of wave 3 of (C) higher. Chart below showed the target area for zigzag structure to be between 9.67 - 9.82 which is 100 - 1.618 Fibonacci extension area of wave (A) related to wave (B).

USDSEK 26 January 4 Hour Elliott Wave Update

USDSEK 4 Hour Elliott Wave Update 1.30.2020
Chart below shows pair extended the rally in wave 3 as expected. It called wave 3 completed at 9.643 and pull back to 9.586 was labelled as wave 4 and wave 5 higher was shown to be in progress which was expected to hit the blue box area starting from 9.67. As far as price stays below 9.822, the rally from December 2019 low would be a 3 waves move and pair can turn lower to do 7 swings down from 9.968 peak or pull back in 3 waves at least. Break above 9.822 would be an early indication that rally from December 31, 2019 low would become an impulse and the current move higher is a wave (3) rather than wave (C).

USDSEK 30 January 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Snap Inc. is an American camera and social media company which has three products: Snapchat, Spectacles, and Bitmoji.

Last year, SNAP ended up with +195% gains as the stock saw an impressive 5 waves advance allowing it to establish a new bullish cycle which made the corrective pullbacks as another opportunity for buyers to join the trend.

With the start of this new year, SNAP managed to rally higher again breaking above July 2019 peak opening an incomplete bullish sequence from December 2018 low and aiming for a minimum target at equal legs area $26 - $34. Therefore, the stock will be looking to remain supported during pullbacks in 3, 7 or 11 swings against $12.7 for the the cycle to continue higher.

Current 4 Hour impulsive cycle taking place since October 2019 is showing an incomplete sequence as the stock is looking to establish 5 waves structure which still missing the 5th wave ((3)) followed by pullback in wave ((4)) before another rally in wave ((5)) to end the initial first leg of the new bullish cycle. Then a corrective 3 waves pullback is expected to take place before the stock can again resume the rally within the main bullish trend.

SNAP Daily Chart
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Elliott wave view in Exxon Mobil (ticker: XOM) suggests that the sequence from April 23, 2019 high (not visible in the short term chart below) is incomplete. Medium term downside target for the stock is 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension from April 23, 2019 high which comes at 52 - 56.1. XOM thus remains favored to the downside and rally should fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing. Shorter cycle, the decline from January 3, 2020 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse and the stock is currently within final wave ((v)) of the move lower.

Down from January 3, 2020 high (71.37), wave ((i)) ended at 68.63 and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 69.96. The stock has resumed lower and ended wave ((iii)) at 63.4 and bounce in wave ((iv)) ended at 65.87. Exxon Mobil is in the final leg wave ((v)) lower thus it is a little risky to chase the weakness in the shorter cycle. Near term, as far as the bounce fails below 65.87, further downside still can't be ruled out before XOM ends the 5 waves down.

The 5 waves move down should end wave 3 in larger degree and the stock should then bounce in wave 4 to correct the cycle from January 3, 2020 high before the decline resumes again. We don't like buying the stock.

Exxon Mobil 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
Elliott Wave View: Downside Target for Exxon Mobil
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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TSLA has gained 447% since June 2019 and the vertical rally suggests it is super cycle wave (III) of an Elliott Wave Impulse structure up from all time low. In 2019, we looked for a pull back in TSLA stock followed by more upside and we have been calling it higher since it reached the extreme area down from September 2017 peak. In this blog, we would present some Weekly charts from members area showing how the rally unfolded and in the end we would also talk about some possible targets for this wave (III) and our current view of where we are within this wave (III).

TSLA Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 24 February 2019
Chart below showed the possibility of TSLA having ended wave (III) at 389.61 and treated the pull back to be a wave ( IV). Since the recovery from April 2018 low was quite deep so we entertained the idea of a 3-3-5 FLAT correction in wave (IV) with more downside to come within wave "c" to complete the correction. Ideal area to complete wave (IV) was 100 - 161.8 Fibonacci extensions of a-b between 233.70 - 143.86.

TSLA Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 24 Feb 2019

TSLA Elliott Wave Analysis 10 August 2019
Stock reached extreme area down from 389.61 peak but the pivot at wave (II) low in our distribution system gave up suggesting pull back was not wave (IV) but a wave (II) instead so we updated the wave count to reflect that. Updated wave count suggested 389.61 was wave (I) and dip from there into the blue box was wave (II) at 177.12 and we were at the beginning of a power wave (III).

TSLA 10 August Elliott Wave Analysis

TSLA Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 27 October 2019
Stock rallied strongly from the highlighted blue box area and the rally looked impulsive in nature so we kept calling higher to finish wave I of (III) before a pull back in wave II and higher again.

TSLA 27 October Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis



TSLA Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 29 December 2019
TSLA made a new all time high and as it kept extending higher with shallow pull backs which was an indication that we were already within wave ((3)) of III of super cycle wave (III) with more upside to come.

TSLA Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 29 December 2019

TSLA Latest Elliott Wave Analysis - Weekly Chart
TSLA has already reached 200% extension of wave (I)-(II) but the rally from wave (II) low is incomplete and it still needs a few more highs to end wave (III) which should be ending in the blue box and could go as high as 1197.45 area and could extend even further before it starts a pull back in wave (IV) to correct the cycle from June 2019 low and then turn higher again in wave (V). It's already at an extreme area so next good swing opportunity would come after wave (IV) pull back has been seen but we do see more upside still within wave (III) so the buyers should still be in control in the mid-term until wave (III) doesn't end.

TSLA 2.4.2020 Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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XAUUSD (Gold) formed a secondary peak at 1593.82 on February 2, 2020 and turned lower sharply. Primary count suggests secondary peak completed wave B as a FLAT and wave C lower has started which should form part of a Zigzag Elliott wave structure down January 7, 2020 peak. A zigzag is a 5-3-5 structure in which both wave A and C are in 5 waves or 5 swings. Therefore, wave C should either unfold as an impulse or a diagonal. In the chart below, we take a look at the current short-term view of Gold.

XAUUSD Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 2.5.2020
Chart below shows initial decline from 1593.82 peak was in 5 waves which ended at 1573.22 and completed wave (i) of ((i)) of C. Bounce to 1581.19 complete wave (ii) which was followed by some sideways consolidation and then a sharp decline which ended at 1548.90 and is proposed to have completed wave (iii). Bounce to 1556.59 is proposed to be a wave (v) and a drop to new lows. Even though it's not shown on the chart because it's an intra-day chart, expectations are for the new low to be wave (v) which should complete wave ((i)) of C before we get a bounce in wave ((ii)) of C to correct the decline from 1593.82 peak and continue lower in wave C provided the peak at 1593.82 remains intact during proposed wave ((ii)) bounce. As far as 1593.82 high stays in place, wave C should ideally extend lower toward 1522.05 - 1477.87 area. In case the bounce extends, then we should still be in wave (iv) and could see 1560.14 - 1564.80 area before it turns lower in proposed wave (v).

XAUUSD Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 2.5.2020
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of NIKKEI published in members area of the Elliottwave-Forecast . As our members know, NIKKEI has recently gave us pull back against the 19841 low. Pull back made 3 waves , when the price reached Blue Box- Buyers zone. NIKKEI found buyers there as we expected. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast and trading strategy

NIKKEI 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 02.01.2020
Current view suggests NIKKEI is about to complete wave IV pull back. The price has already reached blue box area at 22947-22200 ( buying zone). However, we should be aware that there is no confirmation pull back is done. Until the price makes further separation higher another short term low cannot be ruled out. We expect to see further rally from the blue box ideally, or 3 waves bounce alternatively. As soon as the bounce reaches 50 fibs against the ((B)) black peak we should make Long positions risk free. Invalidation level for the long trades would be break below 1.618 Fib extension: 22200.
Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce. The main trend is bullish and we expect to see reaction in 3 waves up from the blue box at least.

NIKKEI

NIKKEI 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 02.04.2020
Eventually NIKKEI found buyers at the blue box area : 22947-22200 . The pull back completed at the 22624 low. We got nice reaction so far, when the price reached 50 fibs against the ((B)) peak. So whoever took long trades should be already risk free. Now we would like to see break above 12/16 peak to confirm next leg up is in progress. Alternatively if 22624 low gets broken in the mean time, NIKKEI would be showing 5 swings incomplete structure and would be doing deeper pull back.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

Nikkei

Elliott Wave Forecast
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Short term Elliott wave view in Nikkei (NKD_F) suggests the Index ended the correction from December 17, 2019 high in wave ((4)) at 22628. The Index has resumed higher in wave ((5)) although it still needs to break above wave ((3)) on December 17, 2019 high at 24140 to avoid a double correction. However, the rally from February 1, 2010 low (22628) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure, favoring the upside. Furthermore, other world indices such as $YM_F (Dow Jones Futures) and $NQ_F (Nasdaq) have already broken to new high, supporting the view the next leg higher has started.

Up from February 1, 2020 low (22628), wave 1 ended at 23015 and wave 2 pullback ended at 22800. The Index has resumed higher in wave 3 which subdivides in lesser degree 5 waves. Dips is expected to find support while above 22628 for further upside. We don't like selling the Index. Near term, expect a few more highs before cycle from February 1 low ends as 5 waves in wave (1). Afterwards, it should correct cycle from February 1 low in wave (2) before the next leg higher. As far as pivot at 22628 low stays intact, expect dips to continue finding support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.

Nikkei 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
Elliott Wave View: NIkkei Has Resumed Higher
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Feb 17, 2017
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In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of CHFJPY, 1-Hour Elliott wave Charts that we presented to our members. In which, the rally from October 2019 lows showed an impulse structure called for another push higher to complete the 5 wave sequence. Therefore, our members knew that the preferred path remains to buy the dip wave 4 pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings. We will explain the Elliott wave structure & buying opportunity our members took below:

CHFJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
CHFJPY Buying Elliott Wave Blue Boxes At Extreme Area

CHFJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 1/29/2020 NY update, in which the pair the rally to 114.40 high ended wave 3 in red. Down from there, the pair corrected lower the cycle from November 2019 lows in wave 4 pullback. The internals of that pullback unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave ((a)) ended at 112.96 low. Wave ((b)) bounce ended at 113.31 high. Wave ((c)) managed to reach the blue box area at 111.88-110.99 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area. From where buyers were expected to appear ideally looking for another extension higher in wave 5 in red or to do a 3 wave bounce at least.

CHFJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
CHFJPY Buying Elliott Wave Blue Boxes At Extreme Area

Here's Latest 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 2/06/2020 Asia update, in which the pair ended wave 4 in red at 111.73 low. And showing reaction higher taking place from the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the longs at the blue box area. Now as far as dips remain above 111.73 low pair is expected to resume the upside and reach towards the minimum extension area for wave 5 at 115.01-116.03 target area to the upside. However, a clear break above 1/16/2020 peak (114.40) is still needed to confirm the next extension higher & avoid double correction lower.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Feb 17, 2017
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Amazon (ticker: AMZN) recently reported Q4 2019 earnings. The result of $45.7 billion online sales surpassed the Q4 2018 number of $39.8 billion. The company also announced they currently have over 150 million Prime subscribers globally. In April 2018, the global Prime subscriber base was around 100 million. Thus, in less than 2 years, Amazon has grown 50% of the Prime subscribers. The year-to-year growth comes at 20.8% which is almost two points better than what the Wall Street expected. The Earnings Per Share of $6.47 was $2.51 better than the consensus. The smashing Q4 earnings report sent Amazon stock up 7.4% to above $2000.

In April 2019, Amazon announced it would offer free one-day shipping to its Prime customers. Amazon forecasted that the move would hit $800 million of its bottom line in the second quarter, which could increase to $1.5 billion in Q4. Amazon stock would stay stuck for several months before finally jolting higher in December. The investment seems to pay off as it convinced more people to join the Prime members. Revenue came in above expectation while Amazon's spending on one-day shipping comes below its guided $1.5 billion.The Q4 results should prove to be a positive catalyst in Amazon's stock going forward.

Amazon (AMZN) Daily Elliott Wave Outlook


Looking at the technical picture above, Amazon has been able to break above July 11, 2019 peak ($2035.8) after the Q4 Earnings Report. The stock now shows an incomplete bullish sequence from December 12, 24, 2018 low. A 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension from December 24, 2018 low comes at $2352 - $2524 which is the next potential target for the stock. Dips from this point should continue to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 1623.95 low remains intact.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Feb 17, 2017
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In this blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliottwave chart of AUDJPY. The rally from August 26, 2019 unfolded as 5 waves impulsive move up in wave (A) as a leading diagonal. Based on Elliottwave theory, the impulsive move up will be followed by 3 waves correction before extending higher. Therefore, we were expecting to buy at the extreme area. We showed this area with a blue box. The blue box is the area where we expect buyers to appear for an extension higher or 3 waves bounce at least.

AUDJPY 1.27.2020 4 Hour Elliott Wave Update
AUDJPY 4H 1.29.20

The chart from 1.28.2020 4 hour update showed that AUDJPY ended wave (A) at 76.57 high. While below that high, we expect the bounce in 3,7,11 swings to fail. The 3 waves correction unfolded as a zig-zag. Wave A of (B) ended at 73.76 low and wave B of (B) ended at 76.25 high. From there, we expect AUDJPY to continue to extend lower in wave C of (B). The 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension of A – B where wave C can end is between 71.70-73.43 area. The pair has already reached this area. However, we were expecting another push lower as the subwave of C is still missing another leg lower.

AUDJPY 2.6.2020 4 Hour Elliott Wave Update
AUDJPY 4H 2.6.2020

The chart from 2.5.2020 4 hour update showed that AUDJPY pushed lower and ended wave (B) at 72.36 low. The pair has bounced higher from there. As long as the pivot at 72.36 stays intact, the pair can continue to extend higher in wave (C). However, the pair needs to break above wave (A) high at 76.57 to confirm the extension higher and to avoid doing a double correction.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Feb 17, 2017
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Short term Elliott wave view in Russell (RTY_F) suggests the Index ended the correction from January 17, 2020 high in wave (4) at 1609.56. It has since resumed higher in wave (5) and the internal subdivision is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure, The Index still needs to break above wave (3) at 1715.1 to avoid a double correction in wave (4). However, other US Indices such as YM_F (Dow Jones Futures), ES_F (S&P Futures), and NQ_F (Nasdaq) have broken above the previous peak, supporting more upside in Russell as well.

Up from February 1 or wave (4) low, wave ((i)) ended at 1629.8 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 1619.80. Index then resumes higher in wave ((iii)) towards 1678.8 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 1665.90. Index resumes the final leg higher in wave ((v)) towards 1695.20. The 5 waves move higher completed wave 1. Index is now within wave 2 pullback to correct cycle from February 1, 2020 low before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at 1609.56 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.

Russell 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
Elliott Wave View: Pullback in Russell Should See Support