Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. (NYSE: KL) is gold mining growing company with highly productive yet low-cost mining operations in Canada and Australia.

Last month, the company reported its revenue in Q4 2019 totaled $412 million, 47% higher than Q4 2018 and an 8% increase from the previous quarter. On a year-over-year basis, both higher gold sales and an increase in gold price contributed to about half of the $132 million increase in revenue. The overall fundamental picture is looking healthy and if the technical overview is alignment with this idea then it would drive investors to buy the stock.

Since IPO, KL traded higher within an impulsive Elliott Wave structure which reached equal legs area $48.7 - $60.9 from September 2018 low where it ended 5 waves advance then started correcting the previous cycle in 3 swings.

Down from September 2019 peak, KL ended up doing a double three correction lower toward equal legs area $32.1 - $23.84 where buyers showed up again looking for 3 waves bounce at least. Up from there, it has the potential to rally higher and break to new all time highs which would open a bullish sequence for the stock with a minimum target at extreme area $71 - $80 . Consequently, traders can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks in 3 or 7 swings as the overall picture for the stock remain supported within a bullish trend.

KL Weekly Chart 3.8.2020
KL Kirland Lake Weekly Chart 3.8.2020
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Over the weekend, a series of events has rocked the market. Investors continue to brace for economic fallout as coronavirus continues to spread around the world. Outside Mainland China, Italy now has the highest infection rate and death toll. It has imposed draconian measure similar to China by locking down Lombardy region and 14 other provinces. The hardest hit in the northern region prohibits travel and cancels all public events. Meanwhile in the US, more cases appear as CDC (Center of Disease Control) finally ships more test kits. As more test kits will be widely available, the number of virus cases would most likely jump in the coming days. As of the weekend, according to the state and local health agencies, governments, and the CDC, there are more than 500 cases of the novel coronavirus in the US. New York, California, and Oregon have all declared a state of emergency. It's a very fast moving event and the number can change very quickly.

Waves of risk aversion over the weekend triggered the limit down rule in US stock Futures as S&P E-Mini futures sank 5%. An all-out oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia also saw Brent Crude Oil sinking 30%. Amid the market turmoil, investors seek safer assets including bonds and gold. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasure Notes dropped below 0.5% at one point. Gold meanwhile crossed $1700 an ounce, hitting the highest level in 8 years. The 50 bps emergency rate cut by the Fed from last week has so far failed to calm the market. As the virus situation is rapidly evolving and in likelihood sees a significant jump in coming weeks / months, the market can remain volatile and see a large swing. In this environment, both bonds and Gold should perform well.

Ten Year Notes (ZN) Daily Elliott Wave Chart
10-Year Treasury (ZN) Drops Below 0.5% As Fear Grips Market

Daily Elliott Wave chart on $ZN_F (10 Year Notes) above shows the rally from October 2018 low is unfolding as an impulsive structure. Up from October 2018 low (117.13), wave (I) ended at 132.13 and wave (II) pullback ended at 127.29. The Notes has extended higher in wave (III) with the extreme 100% - 123.6% extension target at 142.2 - 146.1. It can potentially reach 161.8% Fibonacci extension towards 152 before a pullback in wave (IV) is seen. Expect the "risk-off" environment to stay with us for a while and the Notes can continue to find bid in 3-7-11 swing.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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OPEC's failure to strike a deal to cut production output with Russia caused Saudi Arabia to slash oil's prices in an all-out price war. US West Texas Intermediate Crude plunged more than 30% to $27.9 per barrel while Brent crude futures cratered 29% to $32 per barrel. On Saturday, Saudi Arabia announced a huge price slash to the April selling price and it's also ready to ramp up production to above 10 million barrels per day.

Oil prices have already plunged this year as market anticipates softer demand due to coronavirus shock. A potential supply glut now further puts pressure on Oil's price. Russia's refusal to come into agreement to cut oil production quota can be an attempt to counter US shale producers and also retaliate against the U.S targeting the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline connecting Russia and Germany. Price has now broken below the 2016 low at $26.05. How low can it go? We will take a look at the long term Elliottwave chart below:

Oil (CL_F) Weekly Elliott Wave Chart
Brent Crude Oil Craters 30%, How Low Can It Go?

We can look at the price structure from July 2008 high as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from July 2008 high, wave (a) ended at $33.2 and bounce in wave (b) ended at $114.83. Wave (c) is in progress as a 5 waves where wave I ended at $74.95, wave II ended at $112.24, wave III ended at $26.05 and wave IV bounce ended at $76.9. Oil has now broken below wave III at $26.05 suggesting the next leg lower wave V has started.

Internal of wave V should subdivide into another 5 waves of lesser degree where Oil now can be still within wave ((3)) of V. Although it should be very clear to everyone, in this kind of day where emotion runs high, we should be rational and understand that Oil will never go to $0. We have a couple of ways to estimate the target price for Oil. A 100% extension target from July 2008 is $1.22, a very unlikely scenario as that will go below 1985 price. Unless we are in existential threat as human race due to the coronavirus, that should not come to pass. Another way to measure is a 100% - 161.8% extension area from October 2018 high. Using this method, the area is between $9.9 - $31.4. We have reached this area but still can see a couple more lows before ending the cycle from 2008 high.

Conclusion
Oil has resumed lower as a result of Oil's price war. However, from Elliott Wave point of view, it is in the area for long term investors to start accumulating. For investors who trade with real money and no leverage and those who have the stomach to get short term volatility to the downside, this could be one of the best times to accumulate Oil at a huge discount. It's always hard to time a reversal and investors might have to wait for many years and suffer further selloff in the short term, but with long enough investing time horizon, it may turn out to be one of the best investments. Short term traders are better off to avoid the instrument as it's volatile and risky at this stage. Chasing the downside at this particular level does not have a good risk to reward profile.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of EURJPY, published in members area of the website. As our members know, recently we were calling the decline in EUJPY due to incomplete bearish sequences the pair has in the cycle from the 01/16 peak. We expected the pair to resume trading lower and eventually to retest 09.03.2019 low. Consequently, we advised members to avoid buying the pair and keep on favoring the short side in short term. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast.

EURJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 03.02.2020
Break of the 02/18 low made the cycle from the January 16th peak incomplete, calling for further decline in the pair. The pair is bearish against the 121.3996 pivot. We got 5 swings down from the mentioned peak which is also good sings for the bears. Currently the pair is correcting cycle from the mentioned peak, when bounce is unfolding as Elliott Wave Zig Zag. We still can get another minor swing up to complete 5 waves in (c) leg. Anyway, as far as the price holds below 121.3996 high more weakness is expected in the pair once bounce completes. As invalidation level is not so far away, trading can be risky . We don't recommend buying the pair and favor the short side.

You can learn more about Elliott Wave Zig Zag Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

EURJPY

EURJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 03.02.2020
We got minor swing up as expected and pair completed wave ((b)) recovery as Elliott Wave Zig Zag. We got nice separation from the last short term high, however need to see break below 02/28 low - ((a)) black, to confirm next leg down is in progress.

EURJPY

EURJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 03.09.2020
Eventually the pair has broken 02/28 low. Decline from the last high can be unfolding as impulsive structure, when now ending short term wave (iv) blue recovery.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

EURJPY

Elliott Wave Forecast
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Nike (Ticker: NKE) shows an incomplete sequence from January 22, 2020 high suggesting further downside is likely. The decline from January 22 high is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where wave ((W)) ended at 85.15 and wave ((X)) ended at 94.98. The stock has resumed lower within wave ((Y)) and the internal of wave ((Y)) subdivided as a zigzag structure.

Down from March 3 wave ((X)) high at 94.99, wave 1 ended at 90.57 and wave 2 bounce ended at 93.79. The stock then resumed lower in wave 3 towards 85.88 and bounce in wave 4 ended at 88.67. The final leg wave 5 ended at 80.92 and this also completed wave (A). Wave (B) rally is now in progress to correct cycle from March 3 high before the decline resumes. Expect rally to complete at 87.79 - 91.38 area and stock to resume lower.

We don't like buying the stock. As far as pivot at 94.99 high stays intact, expect rally in Nike to fail in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside. Potential target lower is 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension from January 22 high which comes at 69.93 - 74.7.

Nike (NKE) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
Elliott Wave View: Nike Rally Expected to Fail
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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In this blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliottwave chart of NASDAQ. Based on the daily chart shown below, NASDAQ has ended the rally from 2009 low at 9760.61 high. The index is now correcting that cycle. The correction is unfolding as a double three and has an incomplete sequence. The index has not reached the 100% -161.8% extension at 6352-7367 area. We are showing this area with a blue box. The blue box is the area where we expect the correction to end and buyers to appear for an extension higher or 3 waves bounce at least.

NASDAQ Daily Elliott Wave Update
NASDAQ Daily update 3.10.2020

The 4 hour chart below shows that wave w ended at 8126.25 low and unfolded as a zig-zag. Wave ((A)) of w ended at 8709.50 low. The index then bounced in wave ((B)) and ended at 9037.50 high. Afterwards, the index extended lower and ended wave ((C)) at 8126.25 low. The bounce in wave x ended at 9002.50 high.

From there, the index has continued to extend lower. It has broken below previous wave w low to confirm that wave y is in progress. Wave ((A)) of y has ended at 7814.25 low. The index is doing a bounce in wave ((B)) right now. As long as the pivot at 9002.88 high stays intact, expect the bounce in 3,7, or 11 swings to fail. The index then has the scope to continue lower in wave ((C)) until it reaches the equal leg blue box area. That area should see some support for a 3 waves bounce at least.

NASDAQ 4 hour 3.10.2020 Elliott Wave Update
NASDAQ 4 hour update 3.10.2020
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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We at Elliottwave-Foreast.com use a lot of market correlation to derive our forecasts alongside other tools that we use. In this article, we would look at a recent example of Market correlation used in our forecasts and how a Stock Market from Asia (Hangseng) kept us on the right side in US Indices by calling more downside in them.

Hangseng 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.3.2020
Chart below is the 4 Hour update from members area published on 3.3.2020. Chart shows a 5 waves decline down from black ((X)) to blue (A) which was followed by a corrective bounce to 28055.37 and then another low below wave (A). This break to new low below wave (A) created an incomplete bearish sequence down from black ((X)) high. The new low labelled red 1 also had momentum divergence (not shown on the chart) which confirmed the view that the sequence was incomplete and a bounce in wave 2 should fail for more downside with minimum target in the range of 25044.46 - 24338.13 which is the 100 - 123.6% Fibonacci extension area of the decline from black ((X)) high to wave (A) low projected lower from wave (B) high.

Hangseng 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.3.2020

Hangseng 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.5.2020
Chart below shows we had a bounce in wave 2 as expected and the market was in the areas from where it could start the next leg lower toward 25044.46 - 24338.13 area. Also, the 1 hour chart shown below showed the blue box area where we expected 3 waves within wave 2 to end and Hangseng Index to resume the decline wave 3 of (C) or pull back in 3 waves at least.



Hangseng 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.5.2020
Hangseng 3.5.2020 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis

Hangseng 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.9.2020
Hangseng sold off this week and reached the blue box target area between 25044.46 - 24338.13. Decline from wave (B) high is still in 3 waves so ideally we would be looking for a bounce in wave 4 and another high to complete the cycle from ((X)) peak but as it already reached the shorts target, chasing downside at this stage in Hangseng is a risk proposition.

Hangsend 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.9.2020

Since we had an incomplete bearish sequence in Hangseng Index and it had already seen a 3 waves bounce from the low, we called US Indices also to see more downside because the high in US Indices was seen on 2.20.2020 where as (B) wave high in Hangseng was seen on 2.17.2020 so if Hangseng extended lower against the 2.17.2020 peak, it only made sense for US Indices to extend lower against 2.20.2020 high and see more downside. Below is the 1 hour chart of Dow Futures presented to our clients in the weekend update on March 7, 2020.

YM_F 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.7.2020
Dow Futures 7 March 1 Hour weekend

$YM_F 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.10.2020
$YM_F resumed the decline and dropped to new lows as expected. It reached the blue box area and a bounce in 3 waves at least is expected to take place as the chart below indicates. This is how we were able to use the market correlation and call drop to new lows below 2.28.2020 low in US Indices based on an Asian stock market showing an incomplete sequence. This is why we are always referring to the concept of one market.

YM_F 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.10.2020
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Bank of America (Ticker: BAC) decline from December 27, 2019 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Down from December 27 high, wave ((1)) ended at $32.47 and wave ((2)) ended at $35.45. The stock has resumed lower in wave ((3)) and internal of wave ((3)) subdivides in an impulse in lesser degree. Down from $35.45, wave (1) ended at $27.44 and bounce in wave (2) ended at $29.8.

In the chart below, we can see that down from $29.8, wave 1 ended at $27.50 and bounce in wave 2 ended at $28.42 as a Flat. Stock then resumed lower in wave 3 towards $21.75 and bounce in wave 4 ended at $23.49. Finally wave 5 ended at $21.51 which also completed wave (3). Wave (4) rally is now in progress to correct cycle from March 3 high. Potential target for wave (4) in 3 swing comes at $23.7 -$25. Sellers can appear from this area for more downside or 3 waves pullback at least. We don't like buying the stock. Expect rally in Bank of America to fail in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 29.80 high stays intact

Bank of America (BAC) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
Elliott Wave View: BAC Looking for More Downside
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of XLE 1-Hour Elliott wave Charts that we presented to our members. In which, the decline from 4/23/2019 peak took place as an impulse Elliott wave structure with right side tag pointing lower called for more downside. Therefore, our members knew that selling the bounces into the direction of the right side tag remained the preferred path. We will explain the Elliott wave structure & selling opportunity our members took below:

XLE 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
XLE Selling The Short Term Elliott Wave Blue Box Area



XLE 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 3/03/2020 Pre-Market update. In which the decline unfolded as an impulse structure where wave ((i)) ended at $52.55 low. Wave ((ii)) ended at $55.41 high, wave ((iii)) ended at $43.52 low and does a wave ((iv)) bounce. The internals of that bounce unfolded as Elliott wave zigzag structure where lesser degree wave (a) ended at $46.46. Wave (b) ended at $44.93 and wave (c) was expected to reach $47.90-$49.75 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of (a)-(b). From where sellers were expected to appear looking for more downside.

XLE 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Here's 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 3/08/2020 Weekend update. In which the wave (c) managed to reach the blue box area at $47.90-$49.75. From there, the ETF found sellers as expected and made new lows as expected.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Short term Elliott Wave view in S&P 500 (SPX) suggests cycle from February 19, 2020 high is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from February 19, 2020 high, wave ((W)) ended at 2855 low. The bounce in wave ((X)) ended at 3136 high. From there, the Index has extended lower and broken below previous wave ((W)) low. The Index now has a bearish sequence. Wave ((Y)) is unfolding as a zig-zag. Wave (A) of ((Y)) ended at 2734 low. The internal subdivision of wave (A) unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave 1 ended at 2901 low and the bounce in wave 2 ended at 2985 high. The index then extended lower in wave 3, which ended at 2752 low and followed by a bounce in wave 4, which ended at 2838 high. The index then pushed lower in wave 5 and ended at 2734 low.

Up from that low, the Index bounced in wave (B) as a flat and ended at 2885 high. Currently, the Index has broken below wave (A) low to confirm wave (C) is in progress. Wave 1 of (C) ended at 2760 low and wave 2 bounce ended at 2804 high. While below 2885 high, expect the bounce in 3,7, or 11 swings to fail and SPX to continue to extend lower. The 100% - 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((W))-((X)) which comes at 2260-2596 area can slow down the decline. The index then can consolidate and can possibly bounce in 3 waves at least from that area. However, if the Index breaks below 1.618 extension (2260), the decline risks becoming 5 waves down and the Index can continue to see more downside.

SPX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
SPX 1 hour Asia update 3.12.2020
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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The World Health Organization (WHO) has a declared the outbreak of the new corona virus a pandemic as health authorities around the globe continue to scramble to contain the sickness, first detected in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in December last year.

The virus, which causes a respiratory illness called COVID-19, has spread to at least 114 countries and territories on six continents, infecting more than 118,000 people and killing more than 4,200. The vast majority of infections and deaths have occurred in mainland China, where authorities placed a region of 60 million people under lockdown to contain the pathogen. The worst hit countries at the moment outside China are Italy, South Korea and Iran. However, the graph below shows that UK and US might not be that far behind Italy if the keeps spreading at the same pace.

How UK and US compare to Italy

Many industries like Hotels, Tourism and Airlines have been hit due to Corona virus and many countries either imposing travel bans or advising against un-necessary travel. However, Cruise Industry has probably been the hardest hit industry due to Corona virus starting with Diamond Princess Cruise Ship which went from from having 10 cases of the novel corona virus to more than 700 over the course of its two-week quarantine and the testing that followed (source www.businessinsider.com) and then the quarantine of Grand Princess Cruise Ship. Cruise ships normally operate without any or longer breaks and usually carry thousands of passengers in a limited space so it's very easy for diseases like COVID-19 to spread on Cruise Ships. Royal Caribbean Cruise is one such cruise company which has taken a big hit dropping from 135.32 on 17th January 2020 to 29.01 on 12th March 2020. With such a massive decline, we look at the waves to see what they are suggesting about the stock.

Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) Elliott Wave Analysis (Monthly Chart)
Long-term view suggests RCL has completed a 5 waves advance from it's all time low back in 1993 and it is now correcting that cycle. The initial decline from 135.65 to 89.48 was in 3 waves followed by a full test of 135.65 and then a sharp decline which supports the idea of a 3-3-5 Elliott Wave FLAT correction lower from 135.65 peak with wave (c) still in progress. Wave structure in Carnival Cruises (CCL) is an ABC from the peak but it does the support the idea of a FLAT in RCL as we explain in the video at the bottom of this page. Alternatively, the decline from the peak at 135.65 could become 5 waves and just be 1st leg of the larger 3 waves pull back. It's not impossible but unless wave (b) did a deep test of 135.65 peak, there wouldn't allow a room for ( c ) leg lower unless RCL went bankrupt.

RCL Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis after Corona virus outbreak

Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) Elliott Wave Analysis (Weekly Chart)
Chart below shows a closer look at the structure of the decline from 135.65 peak, we can see the decline from wave ((a)) high to blue (a) was clearly in 3 waves as explained above and the decline from wave (b) high so far appears to be in 3 waves.


Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) Elliott Wave Analysis (480 minutes)

RCL Elliott Wave Analysis Corona virus impact
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Feb 17, 2017
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$FXF Longer Term Cycles and Elliott Wave

Firstly there is data back to when the ETF fund began in 2006 as low as 78.43. Data correlated in the USDCHF foreign exchange pair suggests the FXF high in August 2011 is also the lows of a cycle lower from the all time in the USDCHF. In this instrument there is data available back to 1971 when the exchange rate was 4.3180.

The FXF instrument reflects the price swings of the currency pretty well since inception and as previously mentioned the instrument made a high in August 2011. This where the analysis begins on the weekly chart shown below. The correction from those highs appears to be a an Elliott Wave double three structure. The analysis continues below the weekly chart.



Secondly, as earlier mentioned the decline from the August 2011 highs appears to be an Elliott Wave double three structure. In the second swing of a double three Elliott Wave structure, it generally will reach a price where it is equal to the first swing. When a cycle ends it will show in momentum indicators usually before price makes it obvious. These cycle highs and lows are in the blue color as shown on the chart above (w)-(x) & the proposed (y) that remains in progress.

I will mention how this target area lower is obtained in conclusion. Take a Fibonacci extension tool on your chart platform. Beginning at the August 2011 highs as point 1, trace down to the January 2015 lows where the blue (w) is for point 2. Now trace back up to January 2015 blue wave (x) highs for point 3. This will give the equal legs area shown at 70.95.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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In recent days, the dutch stock Heineken has attracted a reasonable public attention as it also owns the Mort subite brand. In popular culture, the beer Mort subite goes with the Corona beer. "For 2x Coronas one can obtain 1x Mort Subite (sudden death, cardiac arrest) for free". From the February 2020, the Heineken stock has experienced a sharp drop. Disregarding any fundamentals, which may have caused that development, here, I take a technical look on the price chart of Heineken stock.

Heineken Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 03.15.2020
In weekly time frame, the stock has ended a cycle up from the March 2009 lows to the July 2019 highs at 104.08. The 9 swings up and the internal structure of the rally strongly suggests an impulsive character of the cycle. We denote it as a blue wave (I) of a super cycle degree. From the July 2019 highs 3 swings lower have ended the black wave ((A)). From there, we saw a 3 waves bounce to a marginal new high in black wave ((B)) on February 2020 at 105.06. Therafter, a sharp decline in wave ((C)) has brought the prices lower towards 71.86.

The corrective pattern may be an expanded flat demonstrating the right extensions. The entire decline from the July 2019 has reached at 71.86 a resonable depth of correction. Therefore, technically the cycle lower in blue wave ((II)) to correct the cycle up in blue wave (I) might be over. While pullbacks remain above 71.86, the stock may resume the rally in another swing higher.

Heineken ElliottWave Weekly

Heineken Weekly Outlook
Global markets behavior and the cycles period ratio for Heieneken favor a more bearish outlook. In fact, the correction has taken only half a year in comparison to a 10-year long cycle up. Therefore, Heineken can go sideways to lower together with other major indices in the coming months. The flat pattern can be seen as the first leg lower in a red wave w. While above 71.86, the stock price may see a bounce higher to provide a connector wave x in red. From there, while below 104-105 area, it can extend lower in another leg down as a red wave y to finish the blue wave ((II)). If the double correction pattern towards 60-50 area will take place, we prefer buying from these extremes. From there, Heineken should resume the rally or produce a 3 waves bounce at least.

Aternatively, the price may oscillate between the extreme areas being 71.86 and 105.06 to accomplish a triangle pattern. Once finished, it can resolve to the upside in a thrust move. Hereby, the correction cannot be a wave (II) of an impulse but would become rather a (b) wave of a zigzag. Ultimatively, expect Heineken to extend in at least another swing higher.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Feb 17, 2017
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Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of INDU ( $YM_F) , published in members area of the website. As our members know , recently we were calling for more weakness in INDU within the cycle from the February 12th peak. Eventually INDU broke 02/28 low confirming further weakness. Consequently, we advised members to avoid buying the index and keep on favoring the short side. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast.

INDU 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 03.07.2020
Current view suggests the cycle from the February 12th peak remains in progress. First leg from the mentioned high unfolded as Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern. X red connector also has the for of Zig Zag, when it ended as truncation at the 27061 peak. As far as the price stays below that level, INDU should be ideally trading lower within Y red wave. However we need to see break below W red - 02/28 low in order to confirm next leg down is in progress.

You can learn more about Elliott Wave Zig Zag Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

INDU

INDU 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 03.10.2020
Eventually INDU broke 02/28 low and confirmed next leg down is in progress. The index is now bearish against the 27085 peak, targeting 22211 area. The price has ended first leg down from the 27085 peak as 5 waves structure. Currently we are getting bounce from the 0.618-0.764 fib extension: 24060-23346 area. At this moment recovery looks incomplete. It seems like we got only first leg so far. We're calling for short term pull back in B red, and then another leg up C of (B) . Once (B) blue completes as clear 3 waves , more downside should follow toward mentioned target area.

INDU

INDU 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 03.11.2020
INDU gave us 3 waves bounce in wave (B) as expected. Recovery is counted completed at 25020 high. Now we are looking for more weakness toward our target : 22211 area. We need to see break below (A) blue-03.10 low to confirm next leg down is in progress.



INDU 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 03.13.2020
Eventually the price has reached proposed target: equal legs from the 02/12 peak at 22211. Short term equal legs from the March 4th peak is also reached at 21287-18973. However at the moment there is no yet clear sign that February 12th is done. As far as short term pivot at 25020 holds, another short term low still can be seen within bonus time. Anyway we should keep in mind INDU already reached 100% ext in February cycle, so minimum requirements are there and selling is not recommended at this stage.

Keep in mind Market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Not every chart is trading recommendation. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

INDU

Elliott Wave Forecast
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Feb 17, 2017
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Oil price crashed more than 30% and reached a low of $27 earlier this week. OPEC's failure to agree on further production cuts and Saudi Arabia/Russia price war has driven crude oil to the low last seen in January 2016. Commodity currencies such as Canadian Dollar (CAD) and Norwegian Krone (NOK), which are oil-sensitive, were understandably hit hard. Both currencies dove again on Thursday. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the coronavirus outbreak is a pandemic. Soon after, US President Donald Trump announced a travel ban from Europe to the US for the next 30 days. This came at the worst possible time for oil prices. Market is concerned that the travel ban will hit fuel demand. With coronavirus still lingering, oil price crisis offer no end in sight in the near time. Therefore, CAD and NOK could see more weakness, especially against US Dollar.

USDCAD Weekly Elliott Wave Update
USDCAD weekly chart update after oil price crashed

Long term Elliott Wave view from the weekly chart suggests that USDCAD has an incomplete sequence. The cycle from September 2017 has ended as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure at 1.3664 high. The pair then corrected against that cycle and ended at 1.3050 low. Up from that low, the pair has extended higher and has broken above previous 1.3664 high. The 100% -161.8% extension area where the next move higher can target is at 1.4563 - 1.5558 area.

USDNOK Weekly Elliott Wave Update
USDNOK Weekly chart update after oil price crashed

Long term Elliott Wave view from the weekly chart of USDNOK also suggests the pair has an incomplete sequence. The cycle from January 2018 low ended at 9.3057 high. The correction against that cycle ended at 8.7612 low. The pair then extended higher and broke above the previous 9.3057 high. The next target at 100% - 161.8% extension blue box area is at 10.4381 - 11.4774.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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CADJPY Technical Analysis

On March 4/2020 I posted on social media (Stocktwits/Twitter) @AidanFX "$CADJPY Break below 79.88 and I'm selling ... lets see if we see any downside momentum"

CADJPY 1 Hour Chart 3.4.2020 : The chart below was also posted on social media (StockTwits/Twitter) @AidanFX March 4/2020 showing that a bearish descending triangle breakout pattern (blue) was forming. I called for traders to watch for SELLS on the break below the triangle as long as price respects the moving average (light blue) and to also watch for a break below the support level on the indicator.



cadjpy, forex, elliottwave, technical analysis, aidanfx, bearish patterns, trading

CADJPY 1 Hour Chart 3.5.2020/3.6.2020 : Price breaks below triangle triggering SELLS. Indicator also broke below support level signalling downside momentum. By the end of the trading week March 6/2020 price hits target 2. There was no reason or signal to close the trade so sell trade was held over the weekend.

cadjpy, forex, elliottwave, technical analysis, aidanfx, bearish patterns, trading

cadjpy, forex, elliottwave, technical analysis, aidanfx, bearish patterns, trading

CADJPY 1 Hour Chart 3.8.2020 : At the open of the new trading week price drops lower from the panic sell off of the markets and hits the 1:10 RR Target for +600 pips where I eventually banked profits. If you followed me on Twitter/Stocktwits you too could have caught the CADJPY drop lower.



cadjpy, forex, elliottwave, technical analysis, aidanfx, bearish patterns, trading

cadjpy, forex, elliottwave, technical analysis, aidanfx, bearish patterns, trading

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan

*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***

At Elliottwave-Forecast we cover 78 instruments (Forex, Commodities, Indices, Stocks and ETFs) in 4 different timeframes and we offer 5 Live Session Webinars everyday. We do Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Trade Setup Videos and we have a 24 Chat Room. Our clients are always in the loop for the next market move.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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While the general market has had one of the worst routs since the financial crisis, there are a select few stocks that are out performing. Today we're going to take a look at Teladoc Health ($TDOC). First of all lets take a look at the services they provide as a company:

"Teladoc Health, Inc., formerly referred to as Teladoc, Inc. and Teladoc Medical Services, is a multinational telemedicine and virtual healthcare company based in the United States. Primary services include telehealth, medical opinions, AI and analytics, and licensable platform services."

As one can imagine, their business model would benefit from individuals that are staying home or self quarantining.

Teladoc Health Elliott Wave Weekly View
Teladoc Health

The Elliott Wave count since the all time lows set in 2016 paint a bullish picture. Teladoc Health bottomed on March 28/2016 at an all time low of $9.08. From there a Red I is set at $19.49 on the 19th of September 2016. A Red II then followed on October 14/2016 at $14.00. From there a Red III top materialized at $89.05 on October 1/2018. A Red IV then bottomed on December 24/18 at $42.08. Presently $TDOC is rallying in a Red V and has reached the equal legs area of Red III-Red IV. This area is where a Red V Can materialize for a longer term top. The more in depth 4H count suggests further upside is needed to complete the bullish sequence.



Teladoc Health Elliott Wave 4H View
Teladoc Health

From the Red IV low of $42.08 set on December 24/18, a Black ((1)) is set at $70.90 on Feb 20/19. Black ((2)) is set in in a running flat on Aug 28/19 at $54.70. From there some nesting has occurred with an extended wave ((3)). Black ((3)) is favoured to be nearly complete with one more leg up expected to complete the sequence.

Final thoughts
There does appear to be at least one more leg up in this stock before a longer term top may solidify. Chasing final 5th waves are usually not a great risk reward, so be sure to maintain your stops to control your risk.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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Elliott Wave view in GBPJPY suggests that the decline from December 13, 2019 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from December 13, 2019 high, wave 1 ended at 141.14, and wave 2 bounce ended at 144.96. Pair extended lower in wave 3 at 132.51 & wave 4 bounce ended at 137.2.

Wave 5 remains in progress as an ending diagonal. An ending diagonal is a special type of 5 waves with 3-3-3-3-3 subdivision. It has a wedge shape and the internal wave ((iv)) can overlap with wave ((i)). Down from wave 4 at 137.2, wave ((i)) ended at 131.26 and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 134.31. Pair then resumed lower in wave ((iii)) towards 128.8 and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 131.2. Expect pair to extend lower to end wave ((v)). The move lower should also end wave 5 as well as wave (A) in larger degree. Pair should then bounce in wave (B) to correct cycle from December 13, 2019 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the decline resumes again. We don't like buying the pair. As far as pivot at 137.2 remains intact, expect pair to see further downside before ending wave (A) as 5 waves impulse.

GBPJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
Elliott Wave View: GBPJPY Ending 5 Waves Impulse
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of VOX 1-Hour Elliott wave Charts that we presented to our members. In which, the decline from 2/18/2020 peak took place as a corrective structure and showed a lower sequence with a bearish sequence stamp with right side tag pointing lower called for more downside. Therefore, our members knew that selling the intraday bounces into the direction of the right side tag remained the preferred path. We will explain the Elliott wave structure & selling opportunity our members took below:

VOX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
VOX Elliott Wave View: Selling The Blue Box Areas

VOX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 3/10/2020 Post-Market update. In which the decline from February peak unfolded as Elliott wave double three structure where wave ((W)) ended at $85.88 low. Wave ((X)) bounce ended at $93.02 high. While wave ((Y)) unfolded as Elliott wave zigzag structure where wave (A) ended at $80.27 low. Wave (B) bounce also unfolded as a lesser degree zigzag structure and found sellers at $84.67-$87.12 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of A-B.

VOX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
VOX Elliott Wave View: Selling The Blue Box Areas

Here’s 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 3/11/2020 Post-Market update. In which the wave (B) failed within the blue box area at $84.67-$87.12 & made new lows as expected. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the short trade.
 

Elliottwave-Forecast

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In this blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliottwave chart of AUDNZD. The chart below from March 3 update shows that the cycle from November 8, 2019 high unfolded as 5 waves impulsive structure. The move down in wave (A) ended at 1.0304 low. Based on Elliottwave theory, a 3 waves bounce should happen after the impulsive wave, before the downside resume. As long as the pivot at 1.08733 high stays intact, the bounce in 3,7, or 11 swings is expected to fail. The pair can continue to extend lower afterwards. We were expecting the bounce to unfold as a double three. Therefore, the pair could still make another high before ending the bounce in wave (B).

AUDNZD 3.3.2020 4 Hour Elliott Wave Update
AUDNZD 4 hour chart 3.3.2020

The chart below from March 11 update shows that the pair made another high and ended wave (B) bounce as a zig-zag structure instead. Wave (B) ended at 1.0534 high. From there, the pair extended lower and broke below previous wave (A) high. This confirmed that the next leg lower in wave (C) has started and wave (B) bounce is in place.

AUDNZD 3.11.2020 4 Hour Elliott Wave Update
AUDNZD 4hour chart 3.11.2020

The chart from March 17 update shows that AUDNZD continued to extend lower after breaking wave (A) low. Near term, the pair is doing a bounce in wave 4. However, while below 1.0533 high, expect the bounce in 3,7 or 11 swings to fail. The pair can still make another low to end 5 waves move down.

AUDNZD 3.17.2020 4 Hour Elliott Wave Update
AUDNZD 4 hour chart 3.17.2020