Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL) is a mining company engaged in the exploration and development of mineral properties also the mining and processing of silver, gold, lead and zinc.

Since May 2019, HL established a strong reversal after it ended the decline since 2016 peak and started a new bullish cycle. the stock traded higher within an impulsive structure which is currently still in progress within wave 3 of ((3)) with a short term target at $3.56 - $3.87.

As the stock is still in the process of correcting the decline from 2016 peak then ideally it's expected to revisit $4.4 - $6.1 area this year before a larger pullback can take place to allow buyers to join the rally again after a 3 or 7 swings correction.



The stock will remain supported in 2020 with the rise of precious metals Gold & Silver and similar mining companies like Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD) & Royal Gold (RGLD).

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of 1 hour Elliott Wave Charts of Bitcoin ticker symbol: $BTCUSD, which we presented to members at elliottwave-forecast.com. In which the rally from December 18.2019 low ( $6424.16) unfolded in 5 waves impulse structure. Thus suggested that it’s a continuation pattern and as per Elliott wave theory after 3 waves pullback it should do another extension higher in 5 waves impulse structure at least. Therefore, we advised members not to sell the instrument & trade the no enemy areas ( blue boxes) as per Elliott wave hedging remained the preferred path looking for 3 wave reaction higher at least. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

Bitcoin 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Bitcoin 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 1/02/2020 Post-Market update, in which the rally from 12/18/2019 low ($6424.16) unfolded as 5 waves impulse structure where wave ((i)) ended at $7692.98 high. Down from there, the Bitcoin made a pullback in wave ((ii)). The internals of that pullback unfolded as double three structure where wave (w) ended at $7110.73 low. Wave (x) bounce ended at $7524.46 high as a lesser degree flat structure. And wave (y) was expected to end in between $6942.90-$6582.04 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of (w)-(x). From where the buyers were expected to appear in the stock looking for more upside or for 3 wave reaction higher at least.

Bitcoin 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Here's Latest 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart of Bitcoin from Post-Market update, in which the Bitcoin rallied strongly from the blue box area as expected and allowed our members to create risk-free position shortly after taking the long position from blue box area. The Bitcoin since then has managed to make a new high above $$7692.98 high suggesting that the next leg higher towards $8115.73-$8414.47 area has started. Near-term, while dips remain above $6852.42 low it should see more strength.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave view on Apple (ticker: AAPL) suggests the cycle from June 3, 2019 low remains bullish and the rally is unfolding as an impulsive Elliott Wave structure. On the 1 hour chart below, the rally to $301.19 on January 3, 2020 high ended wave 3. Pullback to $292.75 has ended wave 4 in 3 waves zigzag at the blue box area and the stock has resumed higher in wave 5. The stock still needs to break above $301.19 to rule out a double correction. Near term, while pullback stays above $292.75, and more importantly above $285.23, expect stock to extend higher within wave 5.

In the alternate scenario, wave 5 might be complete already at $301.19 and cycle from August 8, 2019 low is over. In this case, stock can see a larger pullback to correct cycle from August 8 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing. However, even if this scenario plays out, the larger degree bullish trend still remains intact and pullback still should see buyers in the sequence of 3 , 7, or 11 swing for more upside. We do not like selling the stock.

Apple (AAPL) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Russell Futures (RTY_F) decline ended cycle from 12/3 and started pulling back. It dropped in 3 waves to 1659.40 and bounced. The bounced appeared corrective so we called for a double three Elliott wave correction lower which was valid as far as price stayed below 12.27.2019 (1687.80). Below, we will present a series of charts to show the correction unfolded and how blue boxes proved to be critical bouncing areas.

Russell Futures (RTY_F) 1.2.2020 1 Hour London Chart


Price did manage to hold below 12.27.2019 (1687.80) peak and Index futures turned lower after forming a secondary peak at 1684.80. Decline from secondary peak appeared impulsive so we have relabelled the secondary peak as wave (b) and expecting structure of the decline from 12.27.2019 peak to be a 3-3-5 FLAT rather than a double three structure. Let's take a look at the chart from New York update on the same day.

Russell Futures (RTY_F) 1.2.2020 1 Hour New York Chart
Chart below highlighted 1655.57 - 1637.54 to be an area where we expected 3-3-5 Elliott wave FLAT structure to end and then Russell futures to resume the rally for a new high in wave ((iii)) or bounce in 3 waves at least. Blue boxes are no enemy areas where both buyers and sellers agree in the direction of the next move for 3 swings at least.



RTY_F 1.3.2020 1 Hour Asia Chart
Russell Futures reached the blue box and bounced to reach 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from (b) wave at 1669.84 allowing any buyers from blue box to get into a risk free position. However, it failed to continue higher and once again broke below 1.2.2020 (1654.60) low opening another extension lower as a larger double three correction.



Russell Futures (RTY_F) 1.3.2020 1 Hour London Chart
Chart below showed 1641.30 - 1620.68 as next blue box area to end a double three Elliott wave structure and highlighted the area from where we expected Russell futures to turn higher and resume the rally in wave ((iii)) or bounce in 3 waves at least. We can see price has entered the blue box and needed to stay above the bottom of the blue box i.e. 1.618 (1620.68) level for the decline to remain corrective or else the decline could have extended.



RTY_F 1.3.2020 1 Hour Midday chart
Chart below shows Russell Futures reached the blue box and bounced as expected. Bounce quickly reached 50% Fibonacci retracement (1657.02) of the decline from blue (x) peak allowing any buyers from blue box to get into a risk free position. Now as far as dips hold above 1639.70 low, expect Index futures to continue higher. Break below would open another extension lower as a 15 swings corrective structure before Index futures would once again have a chance to resume the rally or produce a 3 waves bounce at least.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this blog, we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave chart of copper. The chart from 1.3.2020 update showed that copper ended the cycle up from 11.15.2019 low at 2.6130 to 12.26.2019 high at 2.8565 as 5 waves impulse structure. Copper then did a pullback from the high, which unfolded as a double three correction. Wave (a) of ((w)) ended at 2.8145 low and wave (b) of ((w)) ended at 2.8380 high. Wave (c) of ((w)) ended at 2.7960 low, which completed wave ((w)). Afterwards, it bounced in wave ((x)) and reached 2.8295 high. The 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension of ((w))-((x)) where wave ((y)) can end is between 2.7308-2.7684. This area was highlighted with a blue box. The blue box area is the area where we expect buyers to appear for an extension higher or 3 waves bounce at least.


HG_F 1.3.2020 1 Hour London Elliott Wave Update




In the chart below from 1.8.2020 update, the pair reached the blue box area and ended wave 4 pullback at 2.7593 low. From there, the pair got a nice reaction and rallied higher. This allow members who bought from the blue box area a risk free position. As far as 2.7593 pivot stays intact, expect copper to extend higher for more upside.


HG_F 1.8.2020 1 Hour London Elliott Wave Update

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Advanced Micro Devices INC ($AMD) has been in a tremendous rally since the lows in 2015. The Instrument is rallying within the Grand Supercycle, and the target is between $50.32-$61.81 area. We have been calling this target for the last four years. We did the following blog explaining the idea. At that time, the Instrument was trading around $24.00, but the path was clear to the upside into the $50.32 area against the lows at $1.61. As we always said, the Market does not move in a straight line and always works as a whole. We see the Instrument reaching the target blue box, as the following chart shows:

$AMD Quarterly Elliott Wave Forecast


We also see many world indices showing five waves advance since the lows in 2009. This comes in complete agreement and support our view that 2020 will will see the end of the super cycle degree since 2009 lows across the market. $AMD structure, as shown in the chart above, is corrective and overlapping by Nature, which makes us believe it is a Diagonal structure. A diagonal structure comes with 3-3-3-3-3 subdivision. The reason we are labeling is not only based on $AMD, but the overall market forecast. $SPX already passed the 3189 area, which makes the advance within the Super cycle an impulse, as shown in the following chart:

SPX Monthly Elliott Wave Chart


The Impulse in $SPX will make the whole Market oscillate in a series of (IV) and (V). The reason why we use the diagonal structure in $AMD is as a bridge between the Impulse structure of $SPX and the correcting sequences of $AMD. One more time, we make the case that forecasting is more complicated than following just one instrument, but opening your mind and understand that everything is related will make you a better trader.

$AMD should see a decent three waves pullback sometimes this year, most likely by Quarter two or three. The pullback should reach around $36.00-$28.00 area in the future, and will provide another chance to buy.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave view on Nikkei (NKD_F) suggests the rally to 24148 on December 17, 2019 ended wave ((1)). Index is now doing a wave ((2)) pullback and the internal is unfolding as double three Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((2)) pullback should correct the entire rally from August 26, 2019 high before Index resumes higher again later. Structure of the decline from December 17 high looks corrective which favors the idea the decline is a correction instead of a new bearish cycle in larger degree perspective.

Down from 24148 high, wave W ended at 23320 as a zigzag. Wave ((a)) of W ended at 23710 and wave ((b)) of W bounce ended at 23960. Index then resumed lower in wave ((c)) of W which ended at 23320. Bounce to 23800 ended wave X and wave Y lower ended at 22950 as another zigzag structure. Wave ((a)) of Y ended at 23170 and wave ((b)) bounce ended at 23570. Wave ((c)) of Y ended at 22950 which also completed wave (W) in larger degree. Expect the Index to bounce in wave (X) to correct cycle from December 17, 2019 high before the decline resumes. As far as pivot at 24148 high stays intact, expect the rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.

Nikkei (NKD_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

NQ_F (Nasdaq Futures) made a sharp decline yesterday evening after New York closing and then reacted higher in a very strong manner. Our preferred Elliott wave count treats the dip last night as a Minor wave 4 and now we are expecting the Index futures to be trading higher in Minor wave 5. Earlier this week, we saw 3 waves down from the peak at 1.2.2020 (8907.25) so we called wave 4 completed and started calling higher in wave 5. Let's take a look at the chart below.

NQ_F 1 Hour Elliott Wave Update 1.7.2020
Chart below shows the idea of wave 4 completed at 8723.37 and as dips held above this level, expectations were for Minor wave 5 to continue higher. Corrections unfold in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings and after 3 swings, a correction could always become 7 swings as far as the previous high or low doesn't give up. In this case, we were aware that 5 waves rally from 8723.37 could be part of a FLAT correction also from 1.3.2020 (8735.25) low high of wave 3 was still intact so we made it clear to the members that another push lower in wave 4 could still take place and hence why we didn't like the idea of buying wave ((ii)) pull back. In our Group 2 Live Analysis Session, we also highlighted the next area of interest to complete wave 4 pull back in case we got another push lower.



NQ_F 1 Hour Asia Update 1.8.2020
After the New York closing yesterday, NQ_F (Nasdaq Futures) made a sharp decline and reached 100 - 161.8% Fibonacci extension area (8710.20 - 8596.53) of the initial 3 waves down from 1.3.2020 (8907.25) to 1.6.2020 (8723). It quickly started bouncing again and we called wave 4 completed in the blue box. Below is the chart from Asian update presented to clients last night



Chart above shows the idea of wave 4 being over at 8678 and as dips held above this level, the expectations were for the rally to resume in wave 5. Index futures continued the rally today into London and New York sessions and let's take a look at the latest 1 Hour updated chart to see where we are right now.

NQ_F 1 Hour Midday New York Update 1.8.2020
Index futures have already made a new high above wave 3 peak (8907.25) and appear to be already within wave ((iii)) of Minor wave 5. Minimum target for any longs from the blue box is the inverse 123.6 - 161.8% Fibonacci extension area of wave 4 pull back which lies between 8962.59 - 9050.77. If we are still in wave ((i)) of 5, then it can see more extension to the upside within Minor wave 5 and in case 9050.77 level is exceeded, then 9136.44 - 9244.87 would be next area of interest to look at for completion of Minor wave 5.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave view on Crude Oil ($CL_F) suggests rally to $65.69 on January 8, 2020 ended wave (1). This ended a 5 waves rally from October 3, 2019 low. Oil is now doing wave (2) pullback to correct the cycle from October 3, 2019 low before the rally resumes. The decline is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where the first leg of the zigzag wave A remains in progress. Down from $65.69, wave ((i)) ended at $62.73 and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at $63.07.

Oil has resumed lower within wave ((iii)) with subdivision as another 5 waves in lesser degree. Another leg lower can be seen before wave ((iii)) ends, then it should bounce in wave ((iv)) before the another leg in wave ((v)) lower to complete wave A. Oil should then bounce in wave B to correct cycle from January 8, 2020 high before turning lower again in wave C. As far as pivot at $65.69 high stays intact in the bounce, expect rally to fail in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.

$CL_F 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

$SMH Elliott Wave and Longer Term Cycles

Firstly as seen on the monthly chart shown below. There is data back to May 2000 in the ETF fund. Data suggests the fund made a low in November 2008. This low has not been taken out in price. The cycles in this instrument tends to reflect the Nasdaq index fairly well however it has a larger degree difference in that the Nasdaq made a low to correct the cycle from the all time lows in October 2002 compared to the all time low made in November 2008 in the SMH semiconductors.

Secondly the highlighted area on the monthly chart is the Fibonacci extension of the 1-2 move up from the December 2018 lows. Every way I count this data it suggests several things. One view is a rally could be done or at least near that. If so then a turn lower should be already happening to correct the cycle up from the 2008 low. The data does not support that as of now. The other count shown is too conservative. The reason being that the wave (III) in blue is still in progress toward the 162.28 extension on up to the 185.00 area before it corrects the cycle up from the 2010 lows. That 185.00 round figure comes from a Fibonacci extension of 161.8 measured from a hypothetical zero starting point up to the June 2000 highs down to the November 2008 lows.

The analysis continues below the monthly chart.



Thirdly and in conclusion. The instrument could already be called lower correcting the cycle from the 2008 lows. The other extreme in the bullish direction is higher toward 185.00. That is before it corrects the cycle up from the blue wave (II) lows. The chart I have posted takes the compromise in between of the two views. I always like to give the trend benefit of the doubt. In this case it should be obvious the trend is higher. Nearest term in the time frames not highlighted on the chart above the SMH should trade higher while above the December 2019 lows and certainly while above the December 2018 lows according to the price data currently available.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave view on Dow Jones Futures ($YM_F) suggests that the rally from October 3, 2019 low is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the 1 hour chart below, rally to 28893 ended wave (3) and pullback to 28084 ended wave (4). Index has resumed higher within wave (5).

Up from 28084 low, wave ((i)) ended at 28469 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 28317. Index should see a few more highs to end wave ((iii)), then it should pullback in wave ((iv)) before the next leg higher in wave ((v)) to complete wave 1 of (5). Index then should retrace in wave 2 of (5) to correct cycle from January 8, 2020 low before the rally resumes. We don't like selling the proposed pullback.

As far as pivot at 28084 low stays intact, expect dips to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside within wave (5). Alternatively, instead of ending wave 1 of (5), Index can end the entire wave (5). In this scenario, Index should see larger pullback to correct the cycle from October 3, 2019 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the next leg higher.

Dow Jones Futures ($YM_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of AMAZON Stock published in members area of the Elliottwave-Forecast.com . As our members know, we were calling for further strength in AMAZON within the cycle from the October 25th low. We recommended members to avoid selling the Stock in any proposed pull back and keep favoring the long side within proposed October cycle. Recently we got 3 waves pull back , when the price reached Blue Box- Buyers zone. The stock found buyers there as we expected. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast and trading strategy

AMAZON 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 13.30.2019
Current view suggests AMZN ended cycle from the December 10th low as 5 waves structure- wave ((iii)) black. The Stock is about to complete short term pull back ((iv)) . The price has already reached blue box area at 1843.83-1819.00 ( buying zone). However, we should be aware that until the price makes further separation higher another short term low cannot be ruled out. We expect to see further rally from the blue box ideally, or 3 waves bounce alternatively. As soon as the bounce reaches 50 fibs against the (b) blue peak we should make Long positions risk free. Invalidation level for the long trades would be break below 1.618 Fib extension:1818.92.
Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce. The main trend is bullish and we expect to see reaction in 3 waves up from the blue box at least.



AMAZON 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 13.30.2019
The price has given us another short term low within the blue box area. It found buyers right at the buying zone : 1843.83-1819.00 . Pull back completed at 1832.51 low, and we got rally towards new highs. Members who took long trades are having profits now and should be risk free already. As far as the pivot at 1832.5 low holds, we expect further strength in the Stock.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Last year turned out to be great for GBP crosses as they managed to put in strong rallies in favor of GBP since December 2018 lows or highs. In this article, we would concentrate on two of the GBP crosses namely GBPAUD and GBPNZD because the rallies last year in these two instruments managed to break above their respective October 2018 high which created an incomplete bullish sequence. Let's start by taking a look at the chart of GBPAUD below which shows the cycle and number of swings up from October 2016 low

GBPAUD Elliott Wave Cycle and Sequence from October 2016 low
GBPAUD broke above May 6, 2019 high (1.888) which makes it a bullish sequence from October 2016 low and hence favour more upside. Pair reached 100% from Dec 2018 low (1.7246) and pulled back so we called cycle from Dec 2018 low completed at 1.9523 i.e wave ((W)) and wave ((X)) pull back is now in progress. As the pair has 5 swings up from October 2016 low, we expect wave ((X)) dip to find buyers in 3, 7 or 11 swings for 7th swing higher toward 2.0062 - 2.1816 area. Dec 2018 low (1.7246) needs to hold for this view to remain valid.


GBPNZD Elliott Wave Cycle and Sequence since Oct 2016 low
$GBPNZD managed to break above October 2018 (2.047) high which makes it 5 swings up from October 2016 low. The pair is now showing a bullish sequence from October 2016 low favoring more upside while dips stay above 1.812. Cycle from December 2018 low is proposed to be over at 2.0559 (Oct 14, 2019) and pair is now in a pull back to correct the cycle from Dec 2018 low before it turns higher again in the 7th swing toward 2.1596 - 2.2423 area. Pair has already done 3 swings back from the peak in October but we are calling for another push lower in the 6th swing before pair turns higher in 7th swing because we believe the timing is not there yet to start the 7th swing higher.



EURNZD Blue Box should provide the Timing
EURNZD chart below shows when GBPNZD broke above October 2018 peak to make a higher high, EURNZD failed to break above the same peak and it formed a lower high in October and turned lower again. Decline from October peak (1.7718) appears impulsive, moreover the pivot at December 2018 low has given up which supports the idea of bounces failing below 1.7718 peak and pair trading lower toward 1.6094 region to complete a 7 swings double three Elliott wave structure down from October 2018 peak. Since lower high in October 2019 in EURNZD is the same as the end of 5th swing in GBPNZD, we like the idea of GBPNZD bounces failing below October 2019 peak for another extension lower and that we believe would take EURNZD lower toward the blue box area and once blue box area is hit in EURNZD, that should act as the ideal timing for the next leg higher in GBP crosses i.e. GBPNZD and GBPAUD to start. Market correlation plays an important role in the way we determine the timing in the market and that's why we cover 78 instruments in total and not just a few because as analysts and forecasters we need to be searching for clues within different groups and instruments to get an edge.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Dow Jones Futures ( $YM_F ) published in members area of the Elliottwave-Forecast.com . As our members know, INDU is showing incomplete bullish sequences in the cycle from the December 2018 low. Consequently we recommended members to avoid selling the Futures and keep buying the dips in the sequences of 3,7,or 11 swings , whenever opportunity presented itself. The price found buyers right at the Blue Box area and we got turn higher when Futures made new All-Time High. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott wave Forecast.

Dow Jones Futures ( $YM_F ) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 1.08.2019
INDU has given us 3 waves down from the peak, when wave B of (4) has unfolded as irregular Flat pattern. The price has already reached blue box area at 28270-27982 ( buying zone). We are calling wave (4) blue pull back completed at 28087 . Bounce has already reached 50 fibs against the B red high, so members who entered long trades should be already risk free. We would like to see further separation higher from the mentioned low , looking for a break above January 2nd peak.
As our members know, Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce. The main trend is bullish and we expect to see reaction in 3 waves up from the blue box at least.



Dow Jones Futures ( $YM_F ) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 1.10.2019
Eventually we got further separation higher and the pair broke 01/02 high as we expected. Current view suggests INDU should be ending short term cycle from the 28084 low as 5 waves rally. We expect to get 3 waves down in wave 2 red soon, which should provide us with buying opportunities again.





Dow Jones Futures ( $YM_F ) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 1.11.2019
INDU ended cycle from the 28084 as 5 waves rally as expected. We are getting wave 2 red pull back when now we could be ending first leg ((a)) of 2. We don't recommend selling futures in any proposed push lower and favor the long side as far as pivot at 28084 low holds.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Short Term Elliott Wave view on $DAX suggests the pullback to 12886.55 ended wave (4). Index has resumed higher in wave (5) and the internal subdivides into a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (4) low, wave 1 of (5) ended at 13425.85. The internal subdivision of wave 1 is unfolding as an impulse in lesser degree. Wave 2 pullback ended at 12947.83 low as a double three Elliott Wave correction. The Index has extended higher in wave 3 as a nesting impulse. A nesting impulse is a 5 waves structure where the wave 3 shows a clear 5 waves extension.

Up from 12947.83, wave ((i)) of 3 remains in progress. Expect another leg higher to complete wave ((i)) of 3, then the Index should pullback in wave ((ii)) of 3 to correct the cycle from January 6, 2020 low before the rally resumes. We don't like selling the Index and expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside extension as far as pivot at 12947.83 low stays intact. The Index should see a few more highs before ending wave 5 of (5). Afterwards, it should complete the cycle from August 15, 2019 low and pullback in larger degree 3 , 7, 11 swing to correct that cycle before the rally resumes.

$DAX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Bank of Canada will have its first rate meeting this year on January 22. Recent strong jobs data and high inflation likely allows BOC to maintain a steady rate. Latest jobs report from Canada shows a strong rebound after two straight monthly declines. During the month of December 2019, Canada's economy created 35,000 jobs. What's more impressive is the fact that the gain mostly was in full-time employment. Private sector was especially strong wit the addition of 57,000 jobs in December. This makes 2019 as the second best year of job creation since the financial crisis in 2007. Unemployment rate also dropped to 5.6%.

The latest jobs data came as a a reprieve after the awful result in November. The November's jobs data was particularly alarming as it suggests the economy lost 71,000 jobs. November 2019 was the worst month in more than a decade.

Canada Employment Change


Inflation remains high. Headline annual inflation is at 2.2% while the core inflation is at 1.9%. This is consistent with the central bank's target and indicates that the economy is operating at near capacity.

Canada Inflation Measures


In the latest rate meeting, BOC has said that their biggest concern was the global trade wars. However, relationship between the US and China have since thawed and phase 1 trade deal should be signed this week. The US has rolled back some of their tariffs and take out China from the currency manipulator designation. The conditions should allow BOC to maintain the same monetary policy, providing underlying support to Canadian dollar. In fact, if inflation stays persistently high and starts to pick up, the central bank might even need to hike the rate.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) Broke Bullish Trend Line From 2012 Low


The weekly chart of USDCAD above shows the pair rallies in 3 swing from Dec 2007 low and ended the rally on January 2016 near 123.6% level. Pair since then has broken below the rising bullish trend line from September 2012 low. This may indicate the pair can see further weakness in coming weeks / months.

Canada Dollar (USDCAD) Shows Bearish Sequence From 2018 High


The Daily Chart of USDCAD above shows the pair has 5 swing Elliott Wave bearish sequence from December 2018 high favoring further downside. Pair is in the process of correcting the decline from Sept 3 high (1.338) within swing #6 in 3, 7, or 11 swing. While the rally fails below 1.338, pair should extend lower to complete 7 swing double three Elliott Wave structure towards 1.258 - 1.274 area.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave view on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) suggests the rally from December 18, 2019 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the 1 hour chart below, we can see wave ((iii)) of the impulse ended at 8463.57. Pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 7667 as a double zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Bitcoin has resumed higher in wave ((v)) which subdivides in 5 waves of lesser degree.

Up from 7667, wave (i) ended at 8252.72 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 7960. Wave (iii) is proposed complete at 8895 and while pullback stays above 7667, it has scope to extend higher 1 more time to end wave (v). This move should also end wave ((v)) and the entire rally from December 18, 2019 low. Afterwards, Bitcoin should pullback in wave 2 to correct rally from December 18 low in larger degree 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes.

Near term, it is risky to chase the upside at this stage due to the possibility that the crypto currency is near completion of the 5 waves move higher from December 18, 2019. However, as the rally is impulsive, it's also equally risky to try fading the 5 waves move higher. Another more bullish alternate count is a nest in which Bitcoin is still within an extended wave ((iii)).

BTCUSD (Bitcoin) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of 1 hour Elliott Wave Charts of FCX, which we presented to members at elliottwave-forecast. In which, the rally from 9 October 2019, showed an impulse sequence with right side tag pointing higher favored more strength. Therefore, our strategy remains to buy the Elliott wave dips in 3, 7 or 11 swings into the direction of right side tag to complete the 5 waves impulse structure. We will explain the forecast & structure below.

FCX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 12/20/2019


FCX 1 hour Elliott Wave Chart from 12/20/2019 Midday update, in which the stock is showing an impulse structure where wave 1 ended at $11.92 high. Wave 2 pullback ended in 3 swings at 10.70 low. Wave 3 ended at $13.38 high in 5 wave structure. Down from there, the stock made a 3 waves pullback in wave 4. The internals of that pullback unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave ((a)) ended at $12.82. Wave ((b)) bounce ended at $13.33 high. And wave ((c)) was expected to end in between $12.77-$12.42 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of ((a))-((b)). Afterward, the stock was expected to resume the upside or to do a 3 wave bounce at least.

FCX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 1/02/2020


1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 1/02/2020 Pre-Market update, in which the stock is showing reaction higher taking place from the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the long opportunity at the blue box area. In the above chart, with the stock breaking higher, we proposed that wave 4 pullback ended at $12.60 low. It's important to note that as structure further developed, we changed the structure of the wave 4 pullback into a double three structure by looking at a lesser degree structure.

FCX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 1/05/2020


FCX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 1/05/2020 Weekend update, in which stock failed to extend higher & new high turned out to be a part of Flat structure. Therefore, we adjusted the count in wave 4 pullback to an expanded flat structure. Whereas, the initial pullback to $12.60 low ended wave ((a)). Wave ((b)) bounce ended at $13.45 high. Wave ((c)) was expected to reach $12.58-$12.20 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of ((a))-((b)). From there, the stock was expected to resume the rally higher again in wave 5.

FCX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From Post-Market


Here's the recent 1 Hour Chart from Post-Market update, in which the stock completed the flat correction at $12.50 low. After reaching the blue box area at $12.58-$12.20 area. Then went on to make new highs as expected allowed members to create a risk-free position once again. Near-term, while dips remain above $12.50 low the stock is expected to see more upside towards $$13.68-$14.04 area.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave view on Nasdaq (NQ_F) suggests the rally from October 3, 2019 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the 45 minutes chart below, wave (3) of the impulse structure ended at 8907.25. Pullback in wave (4) ended at 8679.58 as a Flat Elliott Wave structure. Wave A of (4) ended at 8735.25, wave B of (4) bounce ended at 8894.75, and wave C of (4) ended at 8679.58. Nasdaq has resumed higher in wave (5) with internal subdivision as 5 waves of lesser degree.

Up from 8679.58, wave ((i)) ended at 8831 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 8679.58. Wave ((iii)) ended at 9055.5 and wave ((iv)) pullback ended at 8966.25. Index then resumed higher and ended wave ((v)) of 1 at 9114.75. It's currently within wave 2 pullback to correct cycle from January 8, 2020 low before the rally resumes. We don't like selling the Index and expect dips to find buyers in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside as far as pivot at 8679.58 low stays intact. Next potential short term support area is 8949.51 - 9005.91 where the Index can end 7 swing double three correction. From this area, Index can extend to new high or bounce in 3 waves at least.

Nasdaq (NQ_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

With the official signing of Phase 1 trade deal between US and China today, we may have seen the worst in Soybean's market at least in the short term. This of course assumes that China can commit to the agreement and US doesn't take another measure. However, it seems safe to say that the tit-for-tat trade war should cease for the time being. With Phase 1 trade deal, China's soybean import should revert to normal and may even rise significantly. China has also scrapped the import tariff for Soybean.

China is the world's largest soybean importer, requiring more than 100 million tons of soybeans every year. Other than Soybean, other US agricultural and meat products such as wheat, corn, and pork should also see a jump. The US Trade Representative (USTR) office said the deal includes a commitment by China to buy at least $200 billion of US exports over two years. The purchase include manufactured goods, food, agricultural, energy products, and services.

China has started to increase soybean imports since the end of last year. China's soybean imports in December rose 67% year-on-year and jumped 15% from November 2019 to 9.54 million metric ton. It processes 80% of the beans into high protein animal feed. Last year was especially a tough year on the American soy farmers. In addition to the tariff war affecting Soybean, China also lost 40% of its pig population from August 2018 due to the outbreak of African swine fever. Thus, the country's demand for soybean-based animal feed plummeted drastically. However, China has since been able to control the outbreak, and pig numbers have started to recover in 2020.

With the phase 1 trade deal and recovery in China pig numbers, the worst in Soybean is likely over. American farmers can now look forward to export soybean again to the world's largest buyer. Soybean's price has scope to gradually recover from years of depressed price.

Soybean (ZS_F) shows a 5 swing sequence from May 2019 Low


Daily Chart in Soybean above shows a 5 swing bullish sequence from 5.13.2019 low. This suggests as far as the pullback stays above wave (X) low on Dec 2, 2019 at 867.4, it should extend higher again to end 7 swing structure towards 1021 - 11116 area.

Alternate Soybean (ZS_F) Shows a 5 Waves Diagonal Rally from May 2019


In the alternate scenario, Soybean has ended cycle from 5.13.2019 low as 5 waves diagonal. In this case, it should correct cycle from May 2019 low in larger degree 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. In this scenario, it still remains bullish against May 13, 2019 low (792.6) although the pullback can potentially become deeper.