Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

BA and the Trade Tensions Between China and Elliott wave
As we all are well aware there are definitely heightened tensions on the global trading playing field these days. The markets have been whipping back in forth in exacerbated moves. Every hint or tweet about anything to do with trade, specifically, trade and China causes fireworks in the market. Boeing Co ( NYSE: BA ) has been in the news as well for numerous reasons about trade. Boeing is being accused of circumventing U.S. trade regulations by means of entertaining a controversial satellite order. The order was financed by a Chinese government-owned firm.

Boeing canceled the order after much scrutiny and backlash due to the sensitive nature of the satellite technology that is also employed by the U.S. military. Times are tense to say the least. Tense times bring out emotions and emotions bring out volatility in the markets. Volatility gives us as traders opportunities. Are there any opportunities near in BA?

BA, XLI, and Elliott Wave


BA carries an 8.24% weighting as the major component of the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). So I thought it would be curious to analyze the stock and see what the waves are telling us.

If we did come to a conclusion to buy BA what price or price range makes sense? In times like these I like to find stocks with clear Elliott wave patterns for clues about anticipated outcomes or to help with a correlated trade. I think BA has a clear structure on the higher time frames.

The Wave Count for BA


BA has progressed from a single digit stock in the 1980s to reach a high of $107.83 in July 2007. We are calling that top Super Cycle degree wave I (in blue). From $107.83 BA progressed lower in Super Cycle degree wave II (in blue) to a low of $31.40 during February of 2009 when basically everything bottomed during the end of the financial crises.

BA bottomed as well and moved higher in Cycle degree wave I (in red) to $158.83 in February of 2015. Almost an exact year later in February 2016 BA corrected lower to $102.10 to complete Cycle degree wave II (in red). From there it completed another set of first and second waves. This time however it was Primary degree wave ((1)) at the $137.89 high of April 2016 and Primary degree wave ((2)) at the $122.35 low of June 2016.This mean that BA was about to enter the most powerful wave cycle in its history as a 3rd wave on multiple degrees.

Practitioners of Elliott wave analysis are well aware of the power of 3rd waves and this one was no different. From $122.35 BA continued higher three more Primary degree waves to complete the Cycle degree wave III (in red) on October 3, 2018 to an all-time high of $394.28.



So What's Next?
BA is now progressing lower as a proposed double-three correction in Primary degrees ((W)), ((X)), and ((Y)) to complete the Cycle degree wave IV . In the chart below we see from the $394.28 high Primary degree wave ((W)) played out in 3 waves.

Intermediate degree wave (W) (in blue) to the $328.63 low on 10/29/2018. BA then proceeded higher in Intermediate degree wave (X) to $373.39 on 11/02/2018. Intermediate degree wave (Y) then brought prices lower to $296.61 on 11/20/2018 to complete Primary degree wave ((W)).

From the November low BA progressed higher in three waves to $369 on 12/03/2018 that we are proposing is the end of Primary degree wave ((X)).



Where to Look for a Low
The ideal price area for BA to find a low and thus provide us with a target area to go long lies in the blue highlighted area in the chart above. This area signifies the likely endpoint as the length of Primary degree wave ((W)) from the all-time highs projected from the top of Primary degree wave ((X)).

The blue box is an area of high probability that a turn will occur or at least bounce high enough to get in a risk-free position relatively quickly or capture a profitable trade regardless of the accuracy of the wave count.

This measured move should take the last leg of ((Y)) between $271.30 - $211. So, that's where we would like to start building longs to target back above $394.28 in Cycle degree wave V.

Trade Safe,

James

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

GDX Cycles from the January 2016 Lows

Firstly, the GDX ETF was created in 2006. From there it bounced higher into the September 2011 highs. This not shown on the chart however the price trend was obviously up. The pullback lower into the January 2016 lows corrected the cycle from the all time highs. The bounce from the January 2016 lows was strong enough to suggest it was no longer pulling back lower. It ended that bullish cycle August 2016. I give Elliott Wave benefit of the doubt that was a lead diagonal up. The January 2016 low should hold in any further dip.

Secondly. Where I think that will happen is highlighted on the chart below. Before getting to that point again later I would like to talk about the cycle lower from the August 2016 high that suggests that area holds. Notice on the chart it has red 1, 2 and 3. The red 1 marked the end of a cycle in December 2016 and the red 2 marked the end of a three swing correction of that cycle.

The area on the chart that is highlighted is measured with a Fibonacci extension tool. Begin at the August 2016 high as point 1. Go down from there to the December 2016 lows as point 2. Then back up to the February 2017 highs as the point 3. This will give the extension area highlighted on the chart. The analysis and conclusion continues below the chart.

$GDX Weekly Chart

In conclusion and as previously mentioned the bounce from the January 2016 lows ended a larger cycle lower. It favored an impulse more than anything however was strong enough to suggest it would go back above the 2011 highs eventually. This leads to the belief the January 2016 lows at 1240 will remain intact during what appears to be a corrective sequence pullback. You will notice the 100% equal legs line in the highlighted area is at 1250. These areas are typically seen in double three corrections. As of now I tend to favor seeing the last swing end in between there and the 15.62 extension.

Thanks for looking.

Kind regards & good luck trading.

Lewis Jones of the ElliottWave-Forecast Team

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

DAX continues to make a new low and this week broke below 11/20 low (11009) suggesting that the move lower remains in progress. Near term Elliott Wave outlook calls for the decline to 11009.25 on 11/20 as Intermediate wave (3). From there, rally to 11566.97 ended Intermediate wave (4) as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Minor wave A of (4) ended at 11403.72, Minor wave B of (4) ended at 11208.60 and Minor wave C of (4) ended at 11566.97.

Decline from there is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure and a marginal low still can happen before ending the 5 waves down. This move lower also ended Intermediate wave (5) and Primary wave ((3)) of a larger degree. Afterwards, expect Primary wave ((4)) rally in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the decline resumes again. We don’t like buying the proposed rally as the right side still remains lower.

DAX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Since the 2008 Financial Crisis, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) established a new multi-year bullish trend which managed to break above 2007 peak after just 10 years joining the list of many other stocks which already achieved new all time highs in the previous years.

GS has been moving within a bullish channel making higher highs and higher lows. Every correction took place in a form of 3 swings lower into a blue box which is a High-frequency area where the market is likely to end cycles and make a turn. Now, the stock is approaching the lower end of the channel from where ideally the stock will be able the resume the move to the upside as long as the trend remain intact.

Goldman Sachs Monthly Chart


To understand the type of the 3 swings taking place at this stage, we switch to daily chart of GS and analyse the structures using the Elliott Wave Theory :

Goldman Sachs Elliott Wave Daily Chart


Since 2018 Peak, GS started the decline lower in a proposed classical ZigZag structure forming a corrective 3 waves move ((A)) - ((B)) - ((C)). The Stock has already reached the minimum target around the 100% Fibonacci extension area $188 with an extreme level at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension $153.4. Up from there, we expect the stock to react higher and resume the bullish trend looking for new all time highs or at least 3 waves bounce to the upside. However, if GS manage to exceed lower the extreme area then the move lower could turn into an impulsive structure to the downside ending the bullish trend since 2009 and could be starting a larger degree correction.

Corrections are always part of a healthy trend and can present a good opportunity to join it. Consequently, investors can be looking for a Long position within the mentioned buying area with a clear invalidation level.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The market celebrated the trade war truce between U.S. and China after the successful meeting last week between President Trump and Xi. Unfortunately, it only lasted for about 24 hours as news came in with the arrest of Huawei top executive Meng Wanzhou in Canada. Meng faces an extradition to the U.S. on the allegation that she committed fraud to avoid sanctions against Iran. This arrest opens a new chapter in escalating battle between the U.S. and China to gain tech supremacy.

Huawei is the world's largest telecoms equipment provider and also the second largest mobile phone manufacturer. The founder Ren Zhengfei is a former military officer and Meng Wanzhou is his daughter. Huawei is one of the pillars in China's ambition to be an independent technology powerhouse. The arrest happened on December 1, the same day that President Xi and Trump had the dinner meeting in Buenos Aires.

China has poured hundreds of billions to push its "Made in China 2025" plan. The plan aims to make China a global leader in technology industry such as robotics, electric cars, and computer chips. Huawei plays a major role in this plan as it is the state champion for 5G wireless technology. President Xi has said that he wants China to dominate the 5G market globally. A lot of people think that 5G will be the next wave of technology like the Internet or smartphone.

The U.S. however has made it clear it wants to push back against China's growing tech power to maintain dominance. China's tech ambitions have long concerned the U.S as the American government believes China relies on American technology misappropriation to achieve their goals. This is the primary reason for the current trade conflicts as the White House demands China to stop forcing foreign companies to hand over tech secrets as a condition for market access. The U.S. has imposed billions of dollars of tariffs to encourage China to change their behavior.

The US has also targeted other Chinese companies in the past. Last year, ZTE, another Chinese telecoms firm, pleaded guilty to evading sanction on Iran and North Korea. The company had to stop its operations for months after the US ban sales of essential parts to the firm. The ban has since been lifted after the firm paid $1 billion fine. No one was detained at that time.

On Saturday, China said that Meng's arrest "severely violated the Chinese citizen's legal and legitimate rights and interests, it's lawless, reasonless and ruthless, and it is extremely vicious." This arrest can have serious consequences depending on how it plays out down the line. The trade war for the past few years has forced China to accelerate their efforts to be self sufficient and cut reliance on foreign suppliers.

After the news of the arrest came out, market has reacted negatively on the assumption that it can derail trade war truce last weekend. This can also potentially marks the opening of a new chapter of deepening rift between the U.S. and China.

Analysis of Gold to Russell 2000 Ratio


A Gold to Russell Ratio analysis above shows a break above the weekly wedge. It is an early indication that the cycle from 2011 peak may have ended although we need more separation from the low. The implication is clear here and Gold can start outperform Russell in the next few months / years. If cycle from Aug 22, 2011 high has ended, the ratio can at least rally higher to correct the entire decline from 2011 high (a 7 year decline) in a larger 3-7-11 swing.

Analysis of Gold to Nasdaq Ratio


An analysis of Gold to Nasdaq Ratio above also suggests that the ratio breaks above the weekly wedge. This suggests cycle from Aug 22, 2011 may have ended. Again, we need more separation from the low to confirm this. If that's the case, then we can potentially expect Gold to outperform Nasdaq in the next few months / years. The ratio should also at least correct the entire decline from 2011 peak in larger 3-7-11 swing.

Russell Daily Elliott Wave Sequence Technical Analysis


Cycle from 9.4.2008 high in Russell shows an incomplete 5 swing sequence, favoring further downside to end 7 swing. Please note that this is a swing count, not an Elliott Wave label. A 7 swing is a double three Elliott Wave structure (WXY). The Index can see some support at 1367 - 1410 and end swing #5. Afterwards, it should bounce in swing #6 in 3-7-11 swing to correct cycle from 11.8.2018 high (1589) before the decline resumes. This analysis suggests that Russell should see further downside in coming sessions.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

CADJPY Technical Analysis December 10/2018

CADJPY looks poised to make another move lower. There are bearish market patterns that are clearly visible. On the Weekly chart below, CADJPY formed a Bearish Pattern (blue) that triggered sellers on September 10/2017 high where price reached the BC 0.50% Fib. retracement level. From this level CADJPY reversed lower signalling that the September 10/2017 high is a significant level of resistance. CADJPY made a move lower that bottomed out on March 18/2018, the pair bounced higher and is taking form of a correction higher but has reversed lower from the September 30/2018 highs where it was met with bearish patterns that formed on the Daily chart (purple and blue). The September 10/2018 high is a now considered to be the new significant level of resistance. If price can make a good break below the Bearish Channel/Flag (black) bottom trend line we can expect a continuation move lower. Also on the Daily chart below, the pair can be seen respecting the 50MA (light blue) which also signals that sellers/bears are still control. As for now we will continue to expect more CADJPY downside so traders should watch for possible selling opportunities looking to hit the targets that are set on the Daily chart below.

CADJPY Weekly Chart 12.10.2018





CADJPY Daily Chart 12.10.2018





Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade.

*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Exxon Mobil (ticker: XOM) has broken below Nov 23 low ($74.7) and opens further downside in the stock with incomplete sequence from Sept 25 high ($87.36). Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests bounce to $81.97 on 12/5 high ended Minor wave X. Decline from there is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minute wave ((w)) ended at $74.8. Internal of wave ((w)) unfolded as another double three Elliott Wave structure of a lesser degree. Minutte wave (w) of ((w)) ended at $76.92, Minutte wave (x) of ((w)) ended at $80.36, and Minutte wave (y) of ((w)) ended at $74.80.

Minute wave ((x)) is in progress to correct cycle from 12/5 high as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Minutte wave (a) of ((x)) ended at $76.7. Expect a pullback in Minutte wave (b) and another leg higher to complete Minutte wave (c) of ((x)) and end the zigzag pattern before the stock resumes lower. We expect sellers to appear and rally to fail below $81.97 in 3-7-11 swing for more downside in the stock.

XOM 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this blog, I want to share some short-term Elliott Wave charts of Facebook which we presented to our members in the past. Below, you see the 1-hour updated chart presented to our clients on the 12/02/18. Showing that Facebook ended the cycle from 09/27/18 peak in red wave III at 11/20/18 low (128.45).

As Facebook ended the cycle from 09/27/18 peak, we expected a bounce to occur in red wave IV. Above from 11/20/18 low (128.45), the bounce unfolded in an Elliott Wave double correction structure. We advised members that Facebook ideally should continue lower. Therefore, we expected sellers to appear in the sequences of 3, 7 or 11 swings. At the 100 - 1.236 Fibonacci extension of black ((W))-((X)) which came at around 141.41-147.77 area and that was the first area for sellers to appear.

Facebook 12.02.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis


In the last Elliott Wave chart. You can see that the stock reached the blue box area (141.41-147.77) and reacted nicely lower. If traded our blue box area shown in the chart above. Then, any trades from that area were risk-free, which means the stop-loss should be moved to break even, targeting lower levels. Do please keep in mind that the 1-hour chart which I presented may have changed already. And as long as Facebook doesn't break 11/20/18 low (128.45). A double correction in red wave IV higher still can't be ruled out. This blog should just illustrate how accurate our blue boxes are, and how our members trade our 3-7 or 11 swings strategy.

Facebook 12.07.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

NZDJPY has put in a strong rally over the past couple of months gain 9.14% from a low of 72.25 to a high of 78.86. Earlier this year, we advised clients and followers that pair was reaching an inflection area between 73.70 - 68.86 and pair should find a low in this area and start turning higher. Below, we take a look at daily chart presented to members on 2 September 2018.

NZDJPY 2 September Daily Chart
Later in September 2018, pair reached the inflection area between 73.70 - 68.86 but based on Elliott wave structure and market correlation, we called another low to complete a double three Elliott wave structure down from 7/27/2017 (83.91) peak. After another low, we expected the pair to turn higher and resume the rally for a new high above 83.91 peak or a bounce back toward 50- 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 83.91 peak.





In the chart below, we can see that pair made a marginal new low on 9/10/2018 (72.25) and turned up strongly, first leg up ended at 75.54 and we have labelled that as blue wave (1), this was followed by a deep test of 72.25 low to complete blue wave (2) at 72.32, then pair started rallying again and reached a high of 78.86 which is 200% Fibonacci extension of blue wave (1) related to wave (2) and hence could have completed wave (3). As pair has exceeded 161.8 Fibonacci extension of wave (1)-(2) so we are expecting the next pull back to be a blue wave (4) and if the wave count is correct, it should be followed by another high to complete blue wave (5) of black wave ((1)). Afterward, expect a larger wave ((2)) pull back to correct the cycle from 72.25 low and rally to continue. Alternatively, wave rally from 6/24/2018 low could take the form of a double three "wxy" structure rather than "abc" which would mean wave ((1)) could become wave ((A)) and wave ((2)) could be wave ((B)).

NZDJPY Daily Elliott Wave Analysis


We don't like selling the pair and we expect buyers to appear in the pull backs in wave (4) and later on in wave ((2)). In order to see the details analysis in the short-term and see the areas where wave (4) can end, possible target for wave (5) and how to define the buying area once wave ((2)) pull back starts.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

SPX has broken below Oct 30 low (2603.54), i.e. Primary wave ((W)), opening further downside with incomplete bearish sequence from Sept 21 high (2940.91). Near term Elliott Wave view suggests the decline to 2603.54 on Oct 30 low ended Primary wave ((W)). Bounce to 2815.6 ended Primary wave ((X)) as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from 2603.54, Intermediate wave (A) ended at 2756.55, Intermediate wave (B) pullback ended at 2700.44, and Intermediate wave (C) of ((X)) ended at 2815.62.

SPX has since declined from there and broken below Primary wave ((W)) at 2603.54, confirming the next leg lower has started. Primary wave ((Y)) is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Intermediate wave (A) ended at 2583.23. Internal of Intermediate wave (A) unfolded as a diagonal where Minor wave 1 ended at 2631.09 and Minor wave 2 ended at 2800.18. Minor wave 3 ended at 2621.53, Minor wave 4 ended at 2708.54, and Minor wave 5 of (A) ended at 2583.23. Intermediate wave (B) is currently in progress to correct cycle from Nov 8 high (2815.62) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the decline resumes. We expect Index to find sellers once Intermediate wave (B) bounce is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 2815.62 high stays intact.

SPX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart




v

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

We at Elliottwave-Forecast.Com look at the Market as a whole and we keep track of many instrument to get an edge in the Market. At the end, nobody is 100% correct, but having an edge is the key for traders to help plan their upcoming trades. In this article, we look at the GCC (Wisdomtree Commodity Index Fund) which is showing a zig-zag structure within the Super cycle degree down from 7.2008 peak and it has reached the Blue box buying area which starts from 17.35. This structure and extension within the Blue Box will affect many instrument across the Market including $CL_F (OIL), $XAUUSD (GOLD), $XAGUSD (SILVER), $SPX and also $DXY.

GCC (Wisdomtree Commodity Index Fund) decline from 2008 peak


Chart above shows correction ending in the blue box and rally resuming for new highs above July 2008 peak which is the most aggressive view. There are alternative views and one of them is a bounce in a wave ((4)) when we are currently ending wave ((3)) and another low in wave ((5)) to complete wave c red. Either way, when we relate this to $USDCAD, it is easy to time a turn when the pair reaches its own Blue Box which will create either a strong rally in GCC and a strong sell off in $USDCAD or a bounce in wave ((4) and a 3 waves pull back in $USDCAD. In either case, a reaction higher should take place soon in GCC.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the selloff in Bitcoin is not yet over. Rally to $4409.77 ended Intermediate wave (X). Down from there, the decline is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave W ended at $3210. Internal of Minor wave X unfolded also as a double three Elliott Wave structure, but of a lesser Minute degree. Minute wave ((w)) of W ended at $3861 as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Minute wave ((x)) of W ended at $4265, and Minute wave ((y)) of W ended at $3210 also as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure.

Minor wave X bounce is currently in progress to correct cycle from Nov 29 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the decline resumes. Minor wave (X) bounce is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Minute wave ((w)) of X ended at $3633.2, Minute wave ((x)) of X ended at $3292.2, and Minute wave ((y)) of X is looking for $3715.4 - $3976.94 before the decline resumes. We expect sellers to appear from this area for further downside or at least 3 waves pullback as far as pivot at Nov 29 high ($4409.77) remains intact.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this blog I want use the stock of AT&T (NYSE:T) to show you an outstanding example of our typical low risk trade setups using our Blue Box System. In our recent Group 3 Member Area updates we stated T to be Bearish on both the Daily and 4-Hour time frames. This cohesive directional call between the two time frames gave us confidence to look for near term trade setups to the downside.

4 Hour Chart of T with the Subwaves of the (X)


T completed a cycle at the 28.85 low in Intermediate degree wave (W) in blue on 10/26/2018. This completed the nearest cycle lower from the 10/5/2018 peak and would allow us now to look for our typical bearish setup. Members were communicated confirmation of a bearish sequence. So, in the next few sessions we set the short trade up against the prior cycle peak of 10/5/2018 at 34.45. You will hear references to 3,7, or 11 swings a lot at Elliottwave-Forecast. This 3, 7, or 11 swing count and its related measured area is where a reaction should occur. 85% of the time the reaction is a return to the direction of the sequence. In the case of T to the downside. In the chart above you can see the anticipation area where the 3rd swing higher should end.

4 Hour Chart Highlighting the Blue Box Reaction Zone in T


Now that we had charted and confirmed the first and second swings of the proposed 3 swing move higher in T we could get a range to initiate shorts. The blue Box Range was calculated by taking Fibonacci extensions of the length of Minor degree wave A (in red) from the bottom of Minor degree wave B (in red). This projected target range for Minor degree wave C and Intermediate degree wave (X) (in blue) was 31.75-33.23. So entry for the trade was 31.75 with a stop above the 1.618 extension at the top of the blue box at 33.30. This is well under our 34.45 invalidation level. This level had to remain unbroken in order to have continued with the bearish sequence.

30 MIN Chart Highlighting the Reaction from the High


On 12/3/2018 T hit a high of 32.10 in the target area and reacted lower. The reaction was intense enough so that now our Group 3 T traders can take all risk off the trade. Prices should now not go above the 32.10 high before completing a cycle lower below 28.85. Our Group 3 Members have the targets we seek on the downside. This was a perfect example of using our sequence and cycle analysis to formulate a high probability low risk trade setup. We do these similar setups in all 78 instruments we cover. As a subscriber of all three groups you can cherry pick the very best setups to increase your odds in the world of trading every day.

Trade Safe,

James

EWF Analytical Team

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the past Elliott Wave charts of CADJPY published in members area of The Website. As our members know CADJPY has the incomplete bearish sequences in the cycle from the October 3th peak. Break of 10/26 low has made the pair bearish against the 86.99 peak, suggesting further decline . We knew the price should find sellers in bounces in 3,7,11 swings. So ,we advised members to avoid buying the pair and keep on selling the rallies in the sequences of 3,7,or 11 swings whenever get chance. In further text we're going to talk more about the Elliott Wave Forecast.

CADJPY 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 12.1.2018
As of right now, the pair is correcting cycle from the 86.99 peak. Currently the pair is correcting the cycle from the 86.99 peak, doing Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern. We’re looking for another swing up , wave ((y)) to complete X red connector. We don't advise buying the pair in proposed swing up, and favor the short side. As far as 86.99 pivot holds, we expect sellers to appear for further decline ideally or 3 wave pull back alternatively.



CADJPY 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 12.5.2018
The pair has held 86.99 pivot in place, and we got nice decline after X red connector completed. During the decline the price broke 11/20 low, making the cycle from the 87.00 peak incomplete as well. Now the pair is targeting 83.85-83.30 area next, where sellers will be taking profits. We expect to see 3 wave bounce from the mentioned area, that should offer new selling opportunities in the pair. Although bounce is expected, we advise members to avoid buying the pair and to wait for clear bounce, before selling short term rallies in 3,7,11 swings against the 86.25 pivot in first degree.



CADJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 12.7.2018
Eventually we got the proposed bounce from the blue box area :83.85-83.30 as expected. Short term connector made clear 3 waves and reached its equal legs area at 84.9-85.38 ( sell zone). We are already getting reaction from there. As soon as the decline reaches 50 Fibs against the ((b)) low, we should make our short positions risk free.

Note : Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Citigroup (NYSE:C) is the 3rd largest bank in the United States. Since the crash of 2008, its stock wasn't able to recover 15% of that decline compared to other Banks like JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs. 2018 wasn't a good year for the entire market and Citigroup wasn't any different as its stock price is currently down 26% year-to-date.

Many investors are currently afraid of catching the falling knife as they are focusing on the short term perspective. However, if we focus on the right cycle and sequence with the help of the Elliott Wave Theory we can understand that with every drop comes opportunities in specific areas that can be used for investing or trading.



The market nature & the Elliott Wave Theory states that an impulsive 5 waves advance is followed by a corrective 3 waves lower which is represented in the above graphic for reference. After the 3 waves pullback, the market can resume the move within the previous main cycle in 9 or 13 swings higher or the bounce can fail for the instrument to continue the correction lower in 7 or 11 swings.

The Following chart show Citigroup price action with the representation of the 5 waves advance and now 3 waves pullback.

Citigroup Daily Chart


The highlighted blue box in the chart above represents the calculated target for the corrective structure taking place and entering the range of $58.77 - $48.59. It is the area in which the 3 wave regression lower can be ending. Therefore, bulls are expected to show up for a Long opportunity either to resume the previous bullish cycle from 2016 low or produce at least a 3 waves bounce. should see a bounce higher and also now is the time to expect the Fundamental analysis to align with the aforementioned brief primer on the technical.

We use these extreme areas to look for inflection points in terms of price reaction or to reverse a prior trend, consequently Citigroup is expected to see a recovery in early 2019 after ending the current cycle from 2018 peak.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The Brexit saga continues to unfold as Prime Minister Theresa May postponed Brexit deal vote in U.K Parliament last week. The cancellation happened after it becomes clear that May will lose the vote by large margin if she forces it through the Commons. Subsequently, Ms. May survived a confidence vote in her own party and tried to renegotiate the Irish backstop issue. However, the European Union summit leaves her empty handed,

Under the backstop, the UK will stay in customs union with the EU. Northern Ireland will maintain alignment with EU's single-market rules. Mrs. May requests a 1 year time-table for the backstop, but the EU did not grant her request. The EU leaders clarified that they don't intend to use the backstop and it will be only temporary. Even worse, EU leaders removed two important references in the Brexit draft. The first reference removed is that the backstop is not being desired and the second is they are ready to offer assistance to Mrs. May to ratify the deal in Parliament.

Time is running short as the Brexit is due on March 29th. The ultimate deadline for the vote is January 21st. The news of the delay caused the pound to tumble to its lowest level in 18 months. The European Commission will publish plan to cope a no-deal Brexit this week. Even as both sides want to avoid this outcome, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit continues to linger and put pressure on Poundsterling in the near term.

Poundsterling Crosses Elliott Wave Analysis


Elliott Wave Analysis on GBPCHF above suggests that pair has a bearish sequence (lower low sequence) from 4.18.2018 high, favoring further downside. Decline from 4.18.2018 high is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where wave ((W)) ended at 1.2459 and wave ((X)) ended at 1.3116 on 10.10.2018. Pair has since broken below wave ((W)) at 1.2459, suggesting wave ((Y)) lower has started. Near term, while bounces stay below 1.3184, expect pair to extend lower.

An overlay of GBPCHF and GBPAUD reveal the same oscillation despite the different cycle. As we expect GBPCHF rally to hold below 10.10.2018 high and extends lower, the rally in GBPAUD should also hold the same pivot at 10.10.2018 high (1.3115) and extends lower. Decline in GBPAUD from 10.10.2018 is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse structure ending with wave ((A)) at 1.2675. Thus, while wave ((B)) bounce fails below 1.3115, expect pair to extend lower.

Please keep in mind that market is dynamic and it may have changed from the time of this article.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that cycle from 11.8.2018 high (87) ended at 83.55 in Minor wave W and bounce to 85.27 ended Minor wave X. Pair has resumed lower in Minor wave Y, but it needs to break below Minor wave W at 83.55 for confirmation and to avoid double correction in Minor wave X. Internal of Minor wave W unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minute wave ((w)) ended at 84.59, Minute wave ((x)) ended at 86.25, and Minute wave ((y)) of W ended at 83.55. Up from there, Minor wave X bounce ended at 85.27. The Internal of Minor wave X also unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Minute wave ((w)) of X ended at 85.08, Minute wave ((x)) of X ended at 84.34, and Minute wave ((y)) of X ended at 85.27.

Decline from 85.27 is unfolding as a 5 waves Elliott Wave impulse structure. Minutte wave (i) ended at 84.68, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 84.96, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 83.95, and Minutte wave (iv) ended at 84.11. Expect pair to end Minute wave (v) soon, and it should also end Minute wave ((a)) of larger degree zigzag. Afterwards, pair should bounce in Minute wave ((b)) in 3-7-11 swing to correct cycle from 12/14/2018 high before the decline resumes.

CADJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

OIL Elliott wave analysis suggests that a decline from October 3, 2018 peak ($76.9) is unfolding as impulse Elliott wave structure. Down from $76.9 peak, the primary wave ((1)) ended at $68.47 low. A primary wave ((2)) bounce ended at $69.65 high. Then a decline to $54.75 low ended primary wave ((3)). Primary wave ((4)) bounce ended at $57.98 high. Oil is currently in the final leg Primary wave ((5)) lower, which also looks to be unfolding as impulsive structure.

Down from $57.98 high, the initial decline to $50.08 low ended intermediate wave (1) in 5 waves. Above from there, a 3 wave bounce to $54.22 high ended intermediate wave (2) as zigzag structure. Below from there, intermediate wave (3) remain in progress in another 5 waves structure where Minor wave 1 ended in 5 waves at $50.53 low. A bounce to $53.29 high ended Minor wave 2 as a Flat correction.

Currently, Minor wave 3 remain in progress looking to extend lower 1 more time at least towards $45.57-$45.24 inverse 123.6%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of lesser degree Minute wave ((iv)). Afterward, OIL is expected to do a bounce in Minor wave 4 in 3, 7 or 11 swings against $53.29 peak before further downside is seen. We expect bounces to get failed against $53.29 peak in 3, 7 or 11 swings for more downside.

OIL 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Below, you can see the 1-hour updated chart posted on the 12/07/18 with our Elliot count perspective at the time. We expected prices to extend higher due to the 11/16 high broken on 11/29, hence our bullish sequence stamp. Under our method, we encourage our members to trade with the right side of the market after a 3,7, or 11 swing dip. Usually, said dip, corrects the latest completed bullish cycle. With this in mind, after a FLAT correction (a 3 swing dip) of the cycle from 11/23 to wave ((a)), we expected a bullish reaction. As long as the invalidation level (1094.54) was kept intact, and the dip reached anywhere within the 1-1.618 Fibonacci extension area of blue (a) & (b), we expected buyers for further upside.

Palladium 12.07.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis



Notice what happens when the metal reaches the expected reaction area of (1150-1120). Palladium makes a great bounce and starts extending higher. A 5 wave impulse wave move towards new highs as long as the 1094.71 pivot holds.

Palladium 12.13.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis



*Note : Keep in mind the market is dynamic and the presented view might have changed after the post was published.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Sterlite Technologies Ltd. Sterlite Technologies Limited designs, builds and manages “smarter networks” Sterlite Tech develops & delivers optical communication products, network & system integration services and software solutions for telecoms globally. The company is listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange of India. The company changed its name to Technologies Limited’ from Dec.2006. It is India’s only integrated Optical Fiber producer and one of the largest suppliers of Optical Fibers to overseas markets in China, Europe and South East Asia.

STRTECH Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis
STRTECH rally from 2013 low was a 5 waves impulse and completed at 415 (1/24/2018). It is 323.6% Fibonacci extension of wave (I) related to wave (II) due to which we have labelled it as wave (III) of a grand super cycle from all time low. Current sell off in the stock is part of a wave (IV) correction which is unfolding as a FLAT Elliott wave correction. Once completed, expect the stock to resume the rally for a new high above 415 (1/24/2018) peak or produce a 3 waves bounce at least. Let’s take a look at this proposed FLAT correction in the daily chart and where it is likely to end.



STRTECH Elliott Wave FLAT Correction
STRTECH initial decline from 1/24/2018 (415) peak was a double three Elliott wave structure i.e. ((W))-((X))-((Y)) and was expected to complete between 256.31 – 227.28 which is 100 – 123.6% Fibonacci extension area of ((W)) related to ((X)). We highlighted this area with a blue box and it ended right at top of the blue box resulting in a bounce to 400 area. However, it was not enough to take prices to new highs, sellers entered the market again and pushed prices sharply lower. Decline from wave “b” high (400) appears to be impulsive which makes case for a FLAT correction down from 1/24/2018 peak. A FLAT is a 3-3-5 structure in which first leg is in 3 waves, 2nd leg is in 3 waves and 3rd leg is in 5 waves which could be a regular Elliott wave impulse or a diagonal structure. In this case 3rd leg is unfolding as an impulse when we think it has either finished wave (4) of ((3)) or will make another high to finish wave (4) of ((3)). In either case, as far as price stays below 317.41 which is 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave (3), expect STRTECH to see more downside toward 239.55 -201.68 area to complete wave “c” and an Elliott wave FLAT in wave (IV). Like we saw the stock finding buyers in the blue box between 256.31 – 227.28, similarly, we are expecting buyers to appear again in the next blue box between 239.55 – 201.68 and in extension 140.38 and then resume the rally for a new high above 1/25/2018 (415) or produce a larger 3 waves bounce at least.