Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Natural Gas has been showing some interesting price action lately, and for traders who use Elliott Wave analysis, the current setup is worth a closer look. The market has been moving through a double three correction characterized by a series of lower lows and lower highs. Both the daily and 4-hour charts suggest we might be approaching a turning point. Instead of guessing where price might go next, Elliott Wave helps us understand the structure behind the moves—giving us a clearer idea of what could be coming. In this post, we’ll break down what the wave counts are showing on both timeframes, highlight key levels for traders and highligh invalidaion level for the wave count. We will also explain why patience might be the smartest move right now. Let’s take a look at the charts and see what they’re telling us.

Natural Gas Daily Elliott Wave Analysis September 25, 2025​

The chart below highlights a year-long rally in Natural Gas from the March 2024 low to the March 2025 peak, unfolding in a clear 5-wave impulsive structure. Within this move, we count 21 distinct swings, supported by momentum divergence between waves (3) and (5)—a classic sign of an impulse wave nearing completion. As per Elliott Wave guidelines, a 5-wave advance is typically followed by a corrective phase in 3, 7, or 11 swings. The initial pullback from the peak took the form of a Zigzag correction, bottoming at $2.967 on April 24, 2025. While this could have marked the end of the correction, the subsequent rally failed to hold, unfolding in just 3 waves and breaking below the $2.967 low on August 12. This breakdown created a 5-swing decline from the March 10 peak, which remains incomplete since corrective sequences unfold in 3, 7, or 11 swings. Based on this structure and the incomplete sequence, we anticipate one more swing lower toward the $2.100–$1.619 zone to complete the 7-swing correction. From there, Natural Gas could resume its larger bullish trend. A break below August 22 low ($2.622) is needed to confirm the last swing lower has started. Until then, a double correction higher in wave B can't be ruled out [Ref alternate view below]

Please note, a break below the March 2024 low at $1.494 would invalidate this outlook and suggest a deeper correction is underway.

Natural Gas Daily Elliott Wave Analysis September 25, 2025 [ALT VIEW]​

The chart below shows an alternate scenario where wave B is forming as a double correction. In this view, we expect one more push higher before the final move down begins. Price could retest the descending trend line, which connects the highs from March 10 and June 20, 2025. The zone between $3.342 and $3.478 represents the 100%–123.6% Fibonacci extension of wave ((w)) compared to wave ((x)). This is a typical area where wave ((y)) could complete. If price reaches this zone and starts to turn lower, it may confirm the end of the correction and signal the next leg down.



Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/commodities/natural-gas-downside-buyers/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) trades within the forecasted extreme zone of 309.83 to 353.03, showing signs of technical overheating. Analysts expect an average 12-month price target of 343.93, with bullish projections reaching up to 451.50. Strong demand for semiconductors—driven by AI, electric vehicles, and cloud infrastructure—continues to push momentum. All major moving averages, from the 10-day to the 200-day, point to a “Buy” signal. At the same time, indicators like RSI and STOCH suggest overbought conditions. Traders should watch for signs of consolidation or a pullback before the next leg higher.

From October 2025 into early 2026, SMH’s direction depends on interest rate trends, chip supply dynamics, and earnings from top holdings such as NVIDIA, TSMC, and Broadcom. The ETF holds a “Moderate Buy” rating, backed by 22 buy recommendations and 4 holds. While long-term growth in semiconductors looks solid, short-term risks may surface from global tensions or cyclical shifts. New investors might wait for clearer support levels or a dip before entering. Those already in the trade could protect gains by trimming positions or setting stop-loss levels as SMH moves through this high-risk zone.

Elliott Wave Outlook: SMH Daily Chart May 13th​

SMH recently completed a complex double correction (w, x, y), confirming the shift from a failed zigzag (a, b, c) to a deeper structural reset. The breach of wave ((A)) by wave ((C)) and the August 2024 low signaled this transition early, with wave w ending at 200.49, wave x peaking at 269.66 through two diagonal formations, and wave y bottoming at 170.11—right within the Fibonacci extension zone of 186.80 to 167.22. From that low, SMH began a clear impulsive move upward, reinforcing the bullish outlook. As the structure unfolded, corrections in 3, 7, or 11 swings were expected to support the trend. Therefore, buying the dips was the preferred strategy while momentum was holden.

We analyzed to focus on the 309.83 to 353.03 zone as a likely target for wave (V) to complete. This range marks a critical threshold where bullish exhaustion could trigger a broader market correction. With the impulse in motion and technical patterns aligning, traders should stay alert for signs of topping behavior once SMH approaches this zone. The setup favors continued upside in the near term, but disciplined risk management will be key as the ETF enters historically reactive levels.

Elliott Wave Outlook: SMH Daily Chart September 27th​

SMH continues to push through a strong impulsive structure. All signs suggest wave V is already in motion. The weekly chart hints at wave III still unfolding, but we are going to assume a conservative mood for now. The structure from the 170.11 low remains solid. Bullish momentum dominates unless proven otherwise. We expect wave ((3)) to peak by late September. A swift correction in wave ((4)) may follow through October. If the pattern holds, November and December could bring a final rally. A broader reset may begin in early 2026.

SMH now trades inside the critical 309.83–353.03 zone. This area often signals exhaustion and potential reversal. Traders must stay alert and act with precision. The wave V structure looks clean and actionable. The strategy remains simple: buy dips after corrections in 3, 7, or 11 swings. Momentum still favors the bulls, but risk increases inside this zone. A sharp correction could unfold at any moment. Watch for signs of topping or failed breakouts. Discipline and tactical awareness are essential. Ride the impulse while it lasts but stay ready to pivot.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/extreme-smh-hold-take-profits/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The GDXJ (VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF) tracks a market-cap-weighted index of global junior gold and silver mining companies, offering investors exposure to smaller, high-growth potential firms in the precious metals sector. Recent Elliott Wave analysis suggests GDXJ is in a bullish phase, with the monthly chart indicating a grand super cycle wave ((II)) low at $17.94, followed by an impulsive wave (III) driving the ETF higher, currently supported by a daily chart showing wave III in progress from a $26.10 low, with expectations of further upside as long as key pivots hold. In this article, we will explore the long term Elliott Wave technical path of the ETF.

GDXJ Monthly Elliott Wave View​

The monthly Elliott Wave chart for the $GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners ETF) indicates that the grand super cycle wave ((II)) concluded at $17.94. The ETF has since turned upward, exhibiting a nested Elliott Wave impulse structure. From the wave ((II)) low, wave (I) peaked at $52.50, followed by a pullback in wave (II) to $19.52. The ETF has resumed its ascent in wave (III). From the wave (II) low, wave I reached $65.95, with a subsequent pullback in wave II ending at $25.80. As long as the $17.94 pivot low holds, the ETF is expected to continue its upward trajectory.

GDXJ Daily Elliott Wave View​

The daily Elliott Wave chart for the GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners ETF) indicates that wave II concluded at $26.10. Wave III is currently unfolding as a five-wave impulsive Elliott Wave structure. From the wave II low, wave ((1)) peaked at $55.58, followed by a wave ((2)) pullback to $41.85. The ETF has since resumed its upward move in wave ((3)), displaying another impulsive structure. From the wave ((2)) low, wave (1) reached $66.80, with wave (2) dips ending at $57.40. In the near term, as long as the $26.10 pivot low remains intact, the ETF is expected to continue extending higher.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/video-blog/gold-miners-junior-gdxj-strong-nesting-impulse-progress/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of EURCAD. In which, the rally from 02 September 2025 low unfolded as impulse sequence & showed a higher high sequence therefore, called for an extension higher to take place. We knew that the structure in EURCAD should remain supported & extend higher. So, we advised members not to sell the pair & buy the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

EURCAD 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 9.19.2025​

Here’s the 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 9.19.2025 Asia update. In which, the rally to 1.6359 high completed small wave (i) & made a pullback in wave (ii). The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave zigzag correction where small wave a ended at 1.6258 low. Then small bounce to 1.6313 high-ended small wave b. Then started the next leg lower in wave c towards 0.6203- 1.6135 blue box area. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for new highs ideally or for a 3-wave bounce minimum.

EURCAD Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 9.29.2025​

This is the latest 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 9.29.2025 London update. In which the pair is showing a strong reaction higher taking place, right after ending the correction within the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the long position at the blue box area. However, a break above 1.6359 high is needed to confirm the next extension higher towards 1.6404- 1.6476 area minimum & avoid double correction lower.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/forex/eurcad-bounces-back-reaction-blue-box/