does anyone still trade nfp or is waiting the smarter move now?

[benwhitecole]

every month we hear that nfp is the biggest forex event, but lately i feel like trading the first reaction has become more and more difficult.
the market already knows everyone is watching the same number, so we often get a big spike in usd pairs, then a complete reversal 10-30 minutes later. sometimes the first move feels more like liquidity hunting than a real direction.
with this week's dollar moves and all the uncertainty around fed expectations, nfp feels even more important. a strong number could support the dollar again, while a weak report could quickly bring back rate cut expectations.
personaly i used to trade the first candle after news, but after getting caught by too many fake moves i started waiting for the market to calm down first. missing the first move is better than entering at the worst possible price lol.

curious how everyone here handles nfp days:

do you trade the initial breakout, wait for confirmation, or just stay away until volatility drops?

 

[Enivid]

I no longer trade NFP release directly, but when I did I used a pair of preemptively opened buy and sell positions with rather tight stop-losses and ample take-profits. Unfortunately, this would still often end up in both of them hitting their SL due to the price whipsawing after the news announcement. Eventually, spreads + commissions would destroy the bottom line with such a setup.

 

[Amadeus.V]

Same here. I used to think missing the first NFP candle meant missing the opportunity, but sometimes that first candle is the trap These days I’d rather wait 10–20 minutes, see whether the move actually holds, and then look for a cleaner setup. Less exciting, but much easier to manage.

 

[sakaida1125]

i totally get you. used to think missing that first candle meant losing out on a bag, but every time i ape in right away i just get wicked out in like 60 secs and end up donating to the broker in commissions lol
learned my lesson now, rather just grab a coffee, let the absolute circus finish, and wait for a clean retest before touching anything.

 

[Zerologic]

I don't always trade during NFP releases. However, when I do, I often determine my risk tolerance by comparing actual data against expectations, as significant discrepancies tend to drive volatility. That said, I generally stick to short-term trading scenarios due to the high volatility.