fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% yesterday, no surprise there, but the vote was way more hawkish than people were pricing in. 9 to 3, with hammack (cleveland), kashkari (minneapolis) and logan (dallas) all dissenting for a 25bp hike. first time since 2016 you've had three dissents pulling the same direction in one meeting. warsh called it a "family fight" in the presser, said he asked for one and got one. dollar dipped right after the decision then steadied out overnight
today's the one to actually watch though. Q2 GDP advance and June core PCE both drop at 8:30am ET, same slot as always for the quarter end pairing, less than 24 hours after the fed decision. core PCE's been climbing, 3.4% y/y in May which was a 3 year high, consensus for June sits around 3.3% y/y and +0.1% m/m. but june CPI cooled a lot more than people expected so there's genuine two way risk here, not just a formality. GDP consensus is +2.3% annualized vs +2.1% in Q1. BOE also decides this afternoon, hold at 3.75% is the base case but worth keeping half an eye on
eur/usd sitting around 1.138 to 1.14, near a one month low, the euro's getting zero lift from the calmer headlines out of the middle east
gbp/usd around 1.33, weakest in almost a month, market's basically parked here waiting on BOE
usd/jpy still stuck near 163.5, close to 40 year highs for the pair, japanese officials keep talking tough on intervention and it's doing nothing
what I'm watching today: the PCE print at 8:30 is really the whole ballgame. a hot number keeps september hike odds alive (fedwatch's got it around 42% for a hold right now, basically a coinflip), a cool one and cut talk comes roaring back given how crowded dollar longs already are. numbers weren't out yet as of this writing so treat the levels above as pre print, will drop the actuals in the comments once they land
what's everyone watching today, anything I'm missing
today's the one to actually watch though. Q2 GDP advance and June core PCE both drop at 8:30am ET, same slot as always for the quarter end pairing, less than 24 hours after the fed decision. core PCE's been climbing, 3.4% y/y in May which was a 3 year high, consensus for June sits around 3.3% y/y and +0.1% m/m. but june CPI cooled a lot more than people expected so there's genuine two way risk here, not just a formality. GDP consensus is +2.3% annualized vs +2.1% in Q1. BOE also decides this afternoon, hold at 3.75% is the base case but worth keeping half an eye on
eur/usd sitting around 1.138 to 1.14, near a one month low, the euro's getting zero lift from the calmer headlines out of the middle east
gbp/usd around 1.33, weakest in almost a month, market's basically parked here waiting on BOE
usd/jpy still stuck near 163.5, close to 40 year highs for the pair, japanese officials keep talking tough on intervention and it's doing nothing
what I'm watching today: the PCE print at 8:30 is really the whole ballgame. a hot number keeps september hike odds alive (fedwatch's got it around 42% for a hold right now, basically a coinflip), a cool one and cut talk comes roaring back given how crowded dollar longs already are. numbers weren't out yet as of this writing so treat the levels above as pre print, will drop the actuals in the comments once they land
what's everyone watching today, anything I'm missing
