it feels like the forex market has shifted into waiting mode. the dollar has stopped trending aggressively after the recent volatility, usd/jpy is still being influenced by intervention headlines, and most major pairs seem reluctant to commit to a new direction. friday's non-farm payrolls report now looks like the next major catalyst. if the jobs data comes in stronger than expected, expectations for another fed rate hike could increase again, giving the dollar fresh support. if the report disappoints, traders may start pricing in a less aggressive fed path, which could put more pressure on the dollar and give eur/usd and gbp/usd room to extend higher. personally, i'm trying not to predict the number because i think the market's reaction matters more than the headline itself. sometimes a strong report still leads to a weaker dollar if expectations were already priced in. for me, patience feels like the better trade this week. i'm more interested in seeing where liquidity moves after the release instead of guessing the outcome beforehand.
what about everyone else?
are you holding positions through nfp, reducing exposure before the announcement, or waiting until the volatility settles before looking for new setups?
what about everyone else?
are you holding positions through nfp, reducing exposure before the announcement, or waiting until the volatility settles before looking for new setups?
