Daily News Updates by LQDFX

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
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Daily News Update


09 November 2023​

Thursday​

A pivotal day in the economic calendar approaches, as on Thursday, November 9th, 2023, both China and the United States are slated to make significant announcements. China will be revealing its CPI y/y data, while the United States is scheduled to release its unemployment claims figures.​


CNY – CPI y/y​

Consumer prices carry substantial weight in determining the overall inflation rate, a critical factor in currency valuation. This is due to the fact that when prices rise, central banks typically respond by increasing interest rates. The correlation between inflation and interest rates holds significant implications for currency fluctuations and trading strategies, making it a focal point for market participants.

In September, China's CPI remained flat with no year-on-year (YoY) growth, following a slight uptick of 0.1% in August. This figure fell short of market expectations, which had anticipated a 0.2% increase. On a monthly basis, Chinese CPI inflation rebounded to 0.2% in September, marking a significant recovery from the 0.3% decline observed in August and surpassing the expected 0.3% rise. In contrast, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a 2.5% YoY drop in September, marking an improvement from the 3.0% decline recorded earlier. The market had foreseen a 2.4% decline for the ninth month of the year.

TL;DR
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On November 9th, 2023, at 1:30 AM GMT, China will unveil its CPI y/y data.

The forecast for China's CPI y/y suggests a rise to 0.2%, marking an increase from the previous 0.0%.

Last time, the Chinese CPI y/y was announced on the 13th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDCNH M1) below:

USDCNH CPI yy CNH (1).jpg

USD - Unemployment Claims​

Although typically viewed as a trailing indicator, the number of jobless individuals carries substantial significance as it reflects the general economic health, given the robust link between labor market conditions and consumer expenditure. Unemployment also plays a crucial role in the decisions made by those responsible for guiding the nation's monetary policy.

In the latest report, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 5,000 to 217,000, exceeding market expectations and hitting a two-month high. Continuing claims also increased by 35,000 to 1,818,000, the highest since April, indicating challenges for job seekers. This data aligns with the Federal Reserve's concerns about a softening labor market, despite historically tight conditions. The four-week moving average increased by 2,000 to 210,000, and non-seasonally adjusted claims showed notable spikes in Michigan, California, and North Carolina.

The next report on Unemployment Claims is scheduled for Thursday, November 9th, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.

The forecast for Unemployment Claims anticipates a slight uptick from 217,000 to 220,000.

Last time, the US Unemployment Claims was announced on the 2nd of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPUSD M1 below:


GBPUSD Unemployment Claims USD (1).jpg




Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


10 November 2023​

Friday​

On November 10, 2023, the UK is set to unveil its monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, while the United States will release the Preliminary University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index. These economic indicators will provide valuable insights into the economic performance and consumer sentiment in both countries.​



GBP - GDP m/m

This indicator holds significant importance as it constitutes the most comprehensive gauge of economic activity and plays a pivotal role in assessing the overall health of the economy.

In August 2023, the UK's monthly real GDP saw a 0.2% increase, following a 0.6% decline in July 2023. It's worth noting that these figures incorporate revisions to prior months as part of the National Accounts Revisions Policy. In a broader timeframe, GDP exhibited a 0.3% growth over the three months leading up to August 2023, compared to the three months ending in May 2023. Notably, the production sector played a significant role in driving this growth, expanding by 1.2%. Additionally, there were modest increases in the services and construction sectors, with growth rates of 0.1% and 0.9%, respectively.

TL;DR

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The upcoming release of the GDP m/m data is scheduled for November 10, 2023, at 07:00 AM GMT.

The GDP m/m forecast points to a minor decrease, with expectations at 0.1%, down from the previous figure of 0.2%.

Last time, the UK GDP m/m was announced on the 12th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPJPY M1) below:
GBPJPY GDP mm GBP (1).jpg


USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Financial confidence acts as a leading predictor of consumer spending, which is a pivotal force influencing broader economic activity.

In October 2023, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for the US was revised slightly higher to 63.8 from a preliminary reading of 63. However, this figure marked a notable decline from the previous month's 68.1, reaching the lowest level since May. The sub-index measuring consumer expectations also saw a significant drop of 9.9% to 59.3, primarily due to growing concerns about business conditions and personal financial situations. To a lesser extent, the decline was attributed to the impact of negative current events both domestically and internationally. Meanwhile, the sub-index measuring current economic conditions showed a slight decrease of 0.7% to 70.6.

TL;DR

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The upcoming release of the Preliminary University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Report is scheduled for November 10, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT.

The Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment forecast suggests a marginal uptick to 65, up from the previous reading of 63.8.

Last time, the US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Report was announced on the 13th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURUSD M1) below:


EURUSD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment USD (1).jpg




Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


14 November 2023​

Tuesday​

On Tuesday, November 14th, 2023, the United Kingdom is scheduled to release its Claimant Count Change data, while the United States will unveil its Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures.​


GBP - Claimant Count Change​

Unemployment data holds significance as it serves as a vital predictor of overall economic health, despite being a lagging indicator. Labor market conditions have a strong correlation with consumer spending, and unemployment plays a crucial role in shaping a country’s monetary policy.

In September 2023, the United Kingdom recorded an increase in the Claimant Count Change, with a rise of 20.40 thousand, compared to a decrease of 9 thousand in August. This data, which tracks changes in unemployment, has historically averaged 1.63 thousand from 1971 to 2023. It reached its highest point at 860.40 thousand in April 2020 and hit a record low of -169.20 thousand in June 2021.

The upcoming release of the Claimant Count Change is scheduled for Tuesday, November 14th, 2023, at 7:00 AM GMT.

The projected forecast for the Claimant Count Change suggests a rise to 25.0 thousand from the previous figure of 20.4 thousand.

The last time, UK Claimant Count Change was announced on the 24th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPJPY M1) below:

GBPJPY Claimant Count Change GBP.jpg

USD - Core CPI m/m​

Core CPI assumes a crucial role in assessing fundamental inflation patterns by eliminating the influence of volatile food and energy prices, given that consumer prices make up the majority of the broader inflation measure. Consequently, this factor has a substantial effect on currency valuation, as central banks adjust interest rates in line with their mandate to control inflation when prices rise.

Excluding food and energy, the index showed a 0.3% rise, mirroring the increase seen in August. This increase can be attributed to several contributing factors, such as rent, owners' equivalent rent, expenses related to lodging away from home, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, personal care, and new vehicles. However, there were decreases in the prices of used cars and trucks, as well as in the apparel sector over the month. Looking at the past year, the all items index experienced a 3.7% increase, while the all items index, excluding food and energy, witnessed a 4.1% rise. During this period, the energy index declined by 0.5%, while the food index showed a 3.7% increase.

TL;DR
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The forecast for Core CPI m/m indicates stability, showing no change with a projected rate of 0.3%.


USD - CPI m/m​

Consumer prices are the primary driver of overall inflation, and the impact of inflation on currency valuation is closely tied to central banks' actions. When prices begin to rise, central banks may respond by increasing interest rates as part of their mandate to control inflation.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) inched up by 0.4% in September, marking a slight deceleration from the 0.6% increase seen in August.

The forecast for CPI m/m suggests a decline from 0.4% to 0.1%.


USD - CPI y/y​

Consumer prices, serving as the primary driver of overall inflation, hold a crucial role in currency valuation. Central banks respond to price increases by raising interest rates, aligning with their mandate to control inflation.

Over the past 12 months, the overall index saw a 3.7% increase. The main contributors to the monthly increase were the shelter index, with a significant impact, and a rise in the gasoline index. Energy-related indexes showed mixed results, but the energy index went up by 1.5% in September

The upcoming release of Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, and CPI y/y data is scheduled for Tuesday, November 14th, at 1:30 PM GMT.

The forecast for the CPI y/y indicates a marginal rise to 3.8%.

The last time, US Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, and CPI y/y were announced on the 12th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDJPY M1) below:

USDJPY CPI, Unemployment USD.jpg





Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


20 November 2023​

Monday​

On Monday, November 20, 2023, a significant day in financial communications is marked by scheduled speeches from both BOE Governor Bailey and RBA Governor Bullock.​


GBP – BOE Gov Bailey Speech​

Holding the position of central bank head, with control over short-term interest rates, he wields unparalleled influence over the nation's currency value, leading traders to keenly analyze his public statements for hints about future monetary policy directions.

The scheduled address by BOE Governor Bailey is set for Monday, November 20, 2023, at 6:45 PM GMT.

The last time, BOE Governor Bailey spoke on the 8th of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURGBP M5) below:

08-11-2023-BOE-Gov-Bailey-Speaks-GBP.jpg

AUD - RBA Gov Bullock Speaks​

As the central bank's head, wielding control over short-term interest rates, she holds a pivotal role in influencing the nation's currency value, making her public appearances highly scrutinized by traders for potential hints on future monetary policy.

The speech by RBA Governor Bullock is set to occur on Monday, November 20, 2023, at 11:00 PM GMT.

The last time, RBA Governor Bullock spoke on the 25th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (AUDJPY M5) below:

25-10-2023-RBA-Gov-Bullock-Speaks-AUD.jpg




Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


21 November 2023​

Tuesday​

Tuesday, November 21, 2023, is poised to be a pivotal day for financial markets with multiple key announcements scheduled. Australia will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, shedding light on its economic strategy. In parallel, Canada is set to announce its Consumer Price Index (CPI), a critical measure of inflation. Additionally, the United States will disclose the Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, offering insights into its monetary policy decisions.​


AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes​

For traders, the detailed account of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board's most recent meeting is invaluable, as it provides comprehensive insights into the economic considerations that guided their decisions on interest rate levels.

The upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes on November 21, 2023, are anticipated to cover a range of topics, including an analysis of the Australian economy's current state, with a focus on inflation and growth prospects, risks and challenges, and an evaluation of the effectiveness of the RBA's monetary policies. The minutes are expected to shed light on the impact of recent interest rate hikes, the outlook for inflation, and potential further policy tightening, while also addressing the RBA's approach to global economic uncertainties, such as the war in Ukraine and rising living costs. As these minutes provide insights rather than definite policy commitments, they are keenly awaited by investors and businesses for indications of potential future interest rate adjustments by the RBA.

The upcoming Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are scheduled for November 21, 2023, at 12:30 AM GMT.

The last time, the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes was announced on the 17th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (AUDNZD M5) below:

17-10-2023-Monetary-Policy-Meeting-Minutes-AUD.jpg
CAD – CPI m/m​

Inflation, primarily driven by consumer prices, plays a significant role in currency valuation, as escalating prices compel central banks to increase interest rates in adherence to their mandate of inflation containment.

In September 2023, Canada's Consumer Price Index saw a 0.10% decline from the previous month, deviating from the historical average of 0.29% observed since 1950. Notably, the index reached its peak at 2.60% in January 1991 and hit a record low of -1.30% in June 1959.

The upcoming CPI m/m forecast anticipates a modest rise to 0.2%, rebounding from the previous figure of -0.1%, suggesting a potential shift in economic momentum.

The last time, Canadian CPI m/m was announced on 17th of October, 2023. You may see the market reaction graph (CADJPY M5) below:

17-10-2023-CPI-CAD.jpg

CAD - Median CPI y/y​

In the realm of economic trends, consumer prices form a substantial portion of overall inflation, a factor that significantly influences currency valuation. This is primarily because when prices rise, central banks are often prompted to hike interest rates, a strategic move aimed at fulfilling their commitment to controlling inflation.

In a recent update, September 2023 saw Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) Median climb by 3.8% year-on-year, marking a modest slowdown from the 4.1% increase recorded in August and falling below the market expectation of a 4% rise. The CPI Median, a key indicator for evaluating core inflation trends, indicates a slight easing in the rate of price growth, hinting at a moderation in inflationary pressures.

The latest forecast for the CPI y/y Median suggests a slight decrease to 3.5% from the previous announcement of 3.8%, signaling a moderate easing in inflation trends.


CAD - Trimmed CPI y/y​

Consumer prices constitute a major portion of total inflation, which is a critical factor in determining the value of a currency, as increasing prices typically prompt central banks to elevate interest rates in line with their commitment to controlling inflation.

In September 2023, Canada's Trimmed-Mean Consumer Price Index experienced a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, slightly down from the 3.9% rise in August and marginally below the market forecast of 3.8%.

The projected forecast for the CPI Trimmed-y/y basis shows a decline to 3.4%, down from the previous result of 3.7%, indicating a subtle but notable shift in inflation dynamics.

The upcoming release of the CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for Tuesday, November 21, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.


USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes​

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes provide an in-depth record of the committee's latest meeting, detailing the economic and financial considerations that influence their interest rate decisions. These essential documents, produced eight times a year, encapsulate the FOMC's discussions on various topics including the present and anticipated future condition of the U.S. economy, potential risks, and their planned approaches to monetary policy.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to convene on November 21, 2023, with the meeting minutes expected to address several key issues affecting the US economy. Top on the agenda will be the current economic status, including inflation trends and growth prospects, and the challenges and risks the economy faces. The effectiveness of the FOMC's current monetary policy settings and the potential for further interest rate increases will be critically assessed. Particular focus will be on the impact of recent rate hikes, the progress towards the 2% inflation target, and considerations for additional policy tightening amidst recession risks. Global economic uncertainties, such as the war in Ukraine and rising living costs, will also be discussed. Additionally, the minutes will delve into the FOMC's stance on its balance sheet reduction process, the financial implications of cryptocurrencies, and future policy communication strategies. While the minutes provide insight into the FOMC's perspectives and decision-making process, they do not indicate a definitive commitment to future policy actions. Investors and business leaders will scrutinize these minutes for indications of possible interest rate movements, making them a crucial tool for understanding the FOMC's economic assessment and anticipated policy directions.

TL;DR

  • The FOMC meeting on November 21, 2023, will focus on the US economy, including inflation, growth, and risks.
  • Evaluation of current monetary policies and the likelihood of further interest rate increases.
  • Discussion on global economic challenges, such as the war in Ukraine and rising living costs.
  • Consideration of the FOMC's balance sheet reduction and the role of cryptocurrencies.
  • The minutes are crucial for understanding potential interest rate movements and the FOMC's policy direction.

The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes are scheduled for Tuesday, November 21, 2023, at 7:00 PM GMT.







Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


22 November 2023​

Wednesday​

On Wednesday, November 22, 2023, a key economic day is scheduled, featuring the Australian RBA Governor Bullock's speech, alongside the release of the United States Unemployment Claims and the Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data.​


AUD - RBA Gov Bullock Speaks​

As the central bank's head, with control over short-term interest rates, she holds significant sway over the nation's currency value, making her public engagements a focal point for traders who seek insights into future monetary policy.

The speech by RBA Governor Bullock is scheduled for Wednesday, November 22, 2023, at 08:35 AM GMT.

The last time, RBA Governor Bullock spoke was on the 25th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (AUDJPY M5) below:

25-10-2023-RBA-Gov-Bullock-Speaks-AUD.jpg

USD - Unemployment Claims​

The number of unemployed individuals, often viewed as a lagging indicator, is pivotal in gauging a nation's economic health, as it directly influences consumer spending through labor market conditions and significantly impacts the formulation of a country's monetary policy.

During the week ending November 11, U.S. initial jobless claims climbed to 231,000, marking an increase of 13,000 from the prior week's revised level of 218,000, and the four-week moving average rose to 220,250, up by 7,750 from the previous revised average.

The forecast for U.S. unemployment claims suggests a decrease from the previous 231,000 to 225,000, signaling a potential improvement in the job market.

The upcoming release of the U.S. unemployment claims data is set for Wednesday, 22nd November 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT, providing a fresh update on the nation's job market.

The last time, the US Unemployment Claims was announced on the 16th of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (XAUUSD M5) below:

16-11-2023-Unemployment-Claims-USD.jpg

USD - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment​

Financial confidence serves as a crucial predictor of consumer spending, a component that significantly contributes to the majority of overall

In November 2023, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment in the US dropped to a six-month low of 60.4, falling below the October figure of 63.8 and the forecast of 63.7. This decline reflects growing concerns over high interest rates and geopolitical tensions in Gaza and Ukraine. Additionally, inflation expectations for the coming year rose to 4.4%, the highest since April, with a five-year outlook increase to 3.2%, a peak not seen since March 2011. Furthermore, gas price expectations for both short and long terms have reached their highest levels this year.

TL;DR

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The latest forecast for the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Index points to a figure of 60.4, reflecting prevailing economic sentiments among U.S. consumers.

The upcoming release of the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is scheduled for Wednesday, November 22, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT.

The last time, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Index was announced on the 16th of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPUSD M5) below:

27-10-2023-Revised-UoM-Consumer-Sentiment-USD.jpg

CAD – BOC Gov Macklem Speaks​

As the leader of the central bank, which has the authority to set short-term interest rates, he holds significant sway over the nation's currency value, more than any other individual. Market participants pay close attention to his public appearances, as they frequently provide subtle indications about forthcoming monetary policy decisions.

Market volatility is often observed during his speeches, as traders analyze his remarks to glean insights into potential changes in interest rate policies.

The speech by BoC Governor Macklem is scheduled for Wednesday, November 22, 2023, at 04:45 PM GMT.

Last time, BoC Governor Macklem spoke on the 1st of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (CADJPY M5) below:


01-11-2023-BOC-Gov-Macklem-Speaks-CAD.jpg




Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


23 November 2023​

Thursday​

On Thursday, November 23, 2023, a significant market-moving event is anticipated as France, Germany, and the UK are scheduled to release their Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a key indicator of economic health in the manufacturing and service sectors.​


EUR - French Flash Manufacturing PMI​

Traders consider this data crucial as it serves as a forward-looking indicator of economic health. Businesses quickly adapt to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold insights that are among the most timely and relevant regarding the company's view of the economy.

In October 2023, the S&P Global France Manufacturing PMI saw a minor upward revision to 42.8 from the initial estimate of 42.6, yet it still represented a decline from September's 44.2. This marked the ninth successive month of shrinking French factory activity, with the most severe contraction since May 2020, primarily due to widespread demand weakness. The decline in new orders, both domestic and international, was the sharpest since March 2009, excluding the pandemic-affected months. As a result, October witnessed the seventeenth consecutive month of output reduction, the most intense in 41 months, leading to significant reductions in staffing numbers, accelerated cuts in purchasing activity, and lower stocks of inputs. On the pricing front, operating costs for firms decreased for the sixth straight month, thanks to supplier discounts and reduced raw material prices. Concurrently, selling prices saw a slight decrease. Additionally, business confidence fell to its lowest in three and a half years.

TL;DR

  • S&P Global France Manufacturing PMI (October 2023): Revised to 42.8, a decline from September's 44.2.
  • New Orders: Sharpest drop since March 2009 (excluding pandemic months), indicating widespread demand weakness.
  • Output: 17th consecutive month of reduction, the most severe in 41 months, leading to staffing and purchasing cuts.
  • Operating Costs: Decreased for the sixth month, due to supplier discounts and lower raw material prices.
  • Selling Prices: Experienced a slight decrease.
  • Business Confidence: Fell to its lowest in three and a half years.

The anticipated forecast for the French Flash Manufacturing PMI suggests a minor decrease, moving from the previous figure of 42.8 down to 42.6, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector.

The last time, French Flash Manufacturing PMI was announced on the 24th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURGBP M5) below:

24-10-2023-French-Flash-Manufacturing-PMI-EUR.jpg

EUR – French Flash Services PMI​

Traders give significant weight to this data as it acts as a key indicator of economic vitality. Businesses swiftly adapt to changing market conditions, and the insights from their purchasing managers provide highly current and relevant information on the company's economic prospects.

In October 2023, the HCOB France Services PMI registered at 45.2, experiencing its second-steepest decline in three years, following September's 44.4 and falling below initial estimates of 46.1. Reports indicate that decreased client activity, coupled with inflation and rising interest rates, led to a downturn in service sector output. New business volumes contracted for the sixth consecutive month, slightly easing from September's 34-month low. Additionally, there was a sharp decrease in export orders, one of the steepest recorded. Despite challenging business conditions, service firms expanded their workforce for the 34th month in a row. Regarding costs, input prices reached a five-month peak, primarily influenced by wage pressures and escalating fuel prices. However, output charges increased at the slowest pace since May 2021, as weak demand limited companies' ability to pass on rising costs to consumers. Lastly, the business outlook for the next 12 months remained subdued, falling below the long-term average.

TL;DR

  • France Services PMI (Oct 2023): Fell to 45.2, a significant decline from September.
  • Client Activity: Decreased due to inflation and rising interest rates.
  • New Business & Export Orders: Continued contraction; export orders sharply down.
  • Workforce Expansion: Persisted for 34 months, despite tough conditions.
  • Costs and Charges: Input costs rose, but output charge increases slowed due to weak demand.
  • Business Outlook: Remained subdued for the next 12 months.

The latest forecast for the French Flash Services PMI suggests an uptick to 45.6, slightly higher than the previous figure of 45.2.

The upcoming release of the French Flash Manufacturing, Flash Services, and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is scheduled for Thursday, November 23, 2023, at 08:15 AM GMT. This data is a critical indicator of the country's economic health in both manufacturing and service sectors.

The last time, French Flash Services PMI was announced on the 24th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURGBP M5) below:

24-10-2023-French-Flash-Sevices-PMI-EUR.jpg

EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI​

The importance of this data lies in its function as a key predictor of economic health. Companies quickly react to market dynamics, and the insights from their purchasing managers provide timely and significant perspectives on how businesses view the economy.

In October 2023, the HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI saw a minor revision upward to 40.8 from its initial estimate of 40.7, a slight increase from September's 39.6. Despite this rise, the PMI still indicated a significant contraction in the manufacturing sector. This downturn was primarily due to a continuous drop in new orders, with production often sustained by clearing backlogs. However, the rates of decline did slow, and firms' outlook on future production, though still negative, showed some signs of improvement. On the contrary, there was a notable and accelerated decrease in factory employment numbers. Supply chain pressures continued to ease, attributed to diminished demand, which also led to further reductions in both input costs and output charges, as companies faced intense competition for new business.

TL;DR

  • Germany Manufacturing PMI (Oct 2023): Slightly revised up to 40.8 from 40.7, a minor increase from September's 39.6.
  • Sector Status: Despite the rise, the PMI still indicates a significant contraction in manufacturing.
  • New Orders: Continued decline, with production sustained by clearing backlogs.
  • Rate of Decline: Slowed, with a somewhat improved future production outlook.
  • Factory Employment: Experienced a notable and accelerated decrease.
  • Supply Chain Pressures: Eased, mainly due to reduced demand.
  • Costs and Prices: Input costs and output charges decreased due to intense competition and lower demand.

The projected German Flash Manufacturing PMI indicates a modest increase to 41.2, up from the previous result of 40.8.

The last time, German Flash Manufacturing PMI was announced on 24th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURUSD M5) below:

24-10-2023-German-Flash-Manufacturing-PMI-EUR.jpg

EUR - German Flash Services PMI​

This data is highly valued by traders for its role as a leading indicator of economic health. Businesses rapidly adjust to market changes, and the views of their purchasing managers provide exceptionally current and relevant information about the company's economic prospects.

In October 2023, the HCOB Germany Services PMI saw a slight upward revision to 48.2 from its initial reading of 48. Despite this revision, the data indicated that the German services sector entered a phase of contraction at the beginning of the fourth quarter, primarily due to ongoing demand weakness. New business declined for the fourth month in a row, marking the fastest decrease since May 2020, influenced by customer caution and rising interest rates. Both domestic and international sales experienced downturns. Employment in the sector saw only a marginal decrease, reflecting limited impact on the labor market. Inflationary pressures also showed signs of abating, with the slowest rise in prices charged in over two years, attributed to milder cost increases and intensifying competition for new contracts. Lastly, while firms' outlook on future activity remained low, there was a slight improvement in confidence.

TL;DR

  • Germany Services PMI (Oct 2023): Revised slightly up to 48.2 from the initial 48, indicating sector contraction.
  • Demand Weakness: Ongoing issue leading to the contraction at the start of Q4.
  • New Business: Declined for the fourth consecutive month, marking the fastest decrease since May 2020.
  • Influencing Factors: Customer caution and rising interest rates.
  • Sales: Both domestic and international sales saw downturns.
  • Employment: Only a marginal decrease, showing limited impact on the labor market.
  • Inflationary Pressures: Showing signs of easing, with the slowest rise in prices charged in over two years.
  • Future Outlook: Remains low, but there's a slight improvement in firms' confidence.

The forecast for the Flash German Services PMI points to a slight rise to 48.4, marginally up from the previous figure of 48.2.

The upcoming release of the German Flash Services is scheduled for Thursday, November 23, 2023, at 08:30 AM GMT. This announcement is a crucial indicator of the country's manufacturing and service sector health.

The last time, German Flash Services PMI was announced on the 24th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURUSD M5) below:

24-10-2023-German-Flash-Services-PMI-EUR.jpg

GBP - Flash Manufacturing PMI​

This data is a key measure of economic strength, reflecting how quickly businesses adapt to market changes. The insights from purchasing managers are particularly valuable, providing the most up-to-date and relevant views on the company's economic outlook.

In October 2023, the S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI was adjusted to 44.8, a slight drop from the initial estimate of 45.2 and lower than September's 44.3. The sector experienced its eighth consecutive month of decline, the longest uninterrupted period of contraction since the 2008/09 recession. New orders also fell for the seventh month in a row, albeit at a marginally slower pace than in September. Employment continued its downward trend, declining for the 13th consecutive month. Regarding costs, purchase prices decreased for the sixth straight month, influenced by lower expenses for materials like board, energy, fuels, packaging, paper, pulp, steel, and transportation. Conversely, selling prices fell for the fourth time in five months. Business optimism reached a ten-month low, impacted by growing concerns about consumer uncertainty, the cost of living crisis, and challenging market conditions.

TL;DR

  • UK Manufacturing PMI (Oct 2023): Adjusted to 44.8, down from the initial 45.2 and September's 44.3.
  • Sector Trend: Eighth consecutive month of decline, the longest since the 2008/09 recession.
  • New Orders: Fell for the seventh consecutive month, though at a slightly slower pace than in September.
  • Employment: Continued its downward trend, declining for the 13th month in a row.
  • Costs: Purchase prices decreased for the sixth consecutive month, due to lower costs for various materials and transportation.
  • Selling Prices: Fell for the fourth time in five months.
  • Business Optimism: Reached a ten-month low, impacted by consumer uncertainty, cost of living crisis, and challenging market conditions.

The forecast for British Flash Manufacturing PMI suggests a slight increase to 45, up from the previous mark of 44.8.

Last time, the British Flash Manufacturing PMI was announced on 24th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPUSD M5) below:

24-10-2023-Flash-Manufacturing-PMI-GBP.jpg

GBP - Flash Services PMI​

This indicator is crucial for assessing economic health, as it reflects how businesses quickly react to market changes. Purchasing managers are recognized for having the most current and relevant insights into a company's viewpoint on economic conditions.

In October 2023, the S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI experienced a modest upward revision to 49.5 from the preliminary figure of 49.2, slightly higher than September's 49.3, but still remaining under the critical 50.0 threshold for the third consecutive month. Survey respondents attributed the subdued customer demand to cost of living pressures, elevated interest rates, and weakened consumer confidence, leading to continued job cuts due to decreased new orders and uncertainty about future business prospects. Furthermore, the level of optimism for future growth among service companies was at its lowest for the year.

TL;DR

  • UK Services PMI (Oct 2023): Revised up modestly to 49.5 from initial 49.2.
  • Comparison to Previous Month: Slightly higher than September's 49.3 but still below 50.0 threshold.
  • Customer Demand: Subdued, impacted by cost of living pressures, high interest rates, and weak consumer confidence.
  • Employment: Continued job cuts due to lower new orders and business uncertainty.
  • Business Outlook: Optimism for future growth at its lowest for the year.

The upcoming release of British Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMI is scheduled for Thursday, November 23, 2023, at 09:30 AM GMT, providing a key insight into the health of the UK's manufacturing and service sectors.

The upcoming forecast for Great Britain's Flash Services PMI shows a modest rise, anticipated to reach 49.7, slightly higher than the previous figure of 49.5.

The last time, the British Flash Services PMI was announced on the 24th of October 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPUSD M5) below:

24-10-2023-Flash-Services-PMI-GBP.jpg





Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


24 November 2023​

Friday​

Significant economic news is expected on Friday, November 24, 2023, as Germany is poised to release its ifo Business Climate Index, while the United States will announce their Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), both crucial indicators of the business environment in their respective countries.​


EUR - German ifo Business Climate​

As a key measure of economic health, this indicator acts as a precursor to future economic actions such as consumer spending, employment, and investment, with businesses quickly adjusting to market conditions and mirroring changes in overall economic sentiment.

The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany had risen by 1.1 points from the previous month to 86.9 in October 2023, marking the first increase in six months and exceeding the market consensus of 85.9. This represented the highest level in the past three months, as companies had grown less pessimistic about both their expectations for the coming months (84.7 vs 83.1 in September) and their current business situation (89.2 vs 88.7). Analyzing the data by industry, sentiment had improved among manufacturers, service providers, and constructors, but had deteriorated among traders.

The highly anticipated German Ifo Business Climate report is scheduled for release on Friday, 24th November 2023, at 09:00 AM GMT, expected to provide key insights into the country's business sentiment.

The latest forecast for the German ifo Business Climate Index points to an increase to 87.7, up from the prior result of 86.9.


USD – Flash Manufacturing PMI​

This statistic plays a vital role in gauging economic health, as companies rapidly adapt to market changes. Experts often regard purchasing managers as possessing the most current and insightful perspectives on a company's economic future.

In October 2023, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI remained steady at 50.0, a slight rise from September's 49.8, indicating stability in the manufacturing sector, with new orders growing at their fastest since September 2022 and output increasing modestly. However, employment saw its first decline in over three years, and business confidence dropped to the lowest in 2023 amid ongoing challenges like shrinking backlogs and subdued demand, despite rising input costs led by oil prices.

The forecast for the Flash Manufacturing PMI remains unchanged from the previous announcement, holding steady at 50.0, indicating a stable outlook for the manufacturing sector.

The upcoming Flash Manufacturing announcement is set for release on Friday, 24th November 2023, at 2:45 GMT, a key event for assessing the sector's performance.

Last time, the US Flash Manufacturing PMI was announced on the 24th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDCHF M5) below:

24-10-2023-Flash-Manufacturing-PMI-USD.jpg

USD – Flash Services PMI​

This metric is a crucial barometer of economic health, reflecting how rapidly businesses adapt to market changes, with purchasing managers providing timely and relevant insights into the company's economic outlook.

In a revised update for October 2023, the S&P Global Services PMI for the US was adjusted down to 50.6 from an initial estimate of 50.9, indicating a slight growth in the service sector, a shift from near-stagnation at the end of the previous quarter, with improved demand conditions, increased capacity, and the highest business confidence in four months, despite a continued decline in new orders and a strategy of discounting amid slower cost increases.

The upcoming Flash Services announcement is set for release on Friday, 24th November 2023, at 2:45 GMT, a key event for assessing the sector's performance.

The forecast for the Flash Services PMI suggests a slight dip to 50.5, marginally down from the previous reading of 50.6, indicating a subtle slowdown in the services sector's expansion.

The last time, the US Flash Services PMI was announced on 24th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDCHF M5) below:

24-10-2023-Flash-Services-PMI-USD.jpg



Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


28 November 2023​

Tuesday​

The United States is scheduled to release its CB Consumer Confidence report on Tuesday, November 28, 2023, a highly anticipated economic event.​


USD - CB Consumer Confidence​

Financial confidence, a crucial predictor of consumer spending that forms the bulk of economic activity, can be gauged through a survey of approximately 3,000 households. This survey seeks participants' assessment of present and future economic conditions, encompassing factors like labor availability, business conditions, and the overall economic landscape.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index had dipped to 102.6 in October from September's 104.3, reflecting concerns about rising prices, political situations, higher interest rates, and Middle East conflicts. Assessments of the present situation were less optimistic at the time, yet job availability remained stable. Expectations for the next six months had stayed below the recession threshold, indicating a waning confidence in future business conditions, job prospects, and incomes. Despite this, consumer spending had remained robust, but over two-thirds of consumers had still seen a recession as somewhat or very likely, driven by mixed buying plans. Autos and appliances were on the rise, while home-buying plans had declined due to higher interest rates.

TL;DR
Post Table.png

The forecast for the CB Consumer Confidence Report is reading a decrease to 102.1 points, from 102.6 in October.

The upcoming Conference Board Consumer Confidence report is scheduled for release on Tuesday, November 28, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT.

The last time the CB Consumer Confidence Report was announced on the 31st of October, 2023. You may see the market reaction graph (GBPUSD M5) below:

31-10-2023-CB-Consumer-Confidence-USD.jpg



Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


29 November 2023​

Wednesday​

The market on Wednesday, November 29, 2023, is poised for volatility due to a series of high-impact announcements: Australia will release its CPI y/y, New Zealand is set to announce its Official Cash Rate accompanied by a press conference, Germany will unveil its preliminary CPI m/m, Spain is scheduled to release its Flash CPI y/y, and the United States will publish its preliminary GDP q/q figures.​


AUD - CPI y/y​

In a recent analysis of economic trends, it's evident that consumer prices play a pivotal role in driving overall inflation. This is a critical factor in currency valuation, as escalating prices compel central banks to increase interest rates, adhering to their mandate to contain inflation. To gauge these trends, the average prices of a diverse range of goods and services are routinely sampled and compared with previous data.

In the 12 months leading up to September 2023, Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator climbed by 5.6%, reaching its highest level in five months and surpassing the forecasted 5.4% increase. This rise, which marked a consecutive acceleration following a 5.2% gain in August, was primarily driven by significant price increases in housing (7.2%), transport (9.4%), and food & non-alcoholic beverages (4.7%), while there was a slight easing in clothing & footwear prices (-0.1%). Additionally, the annual change in the monthly CPI, when excluding volatile items and holiday travel, remained steady at a 5.5% increase in September, mirroring the rise observed in August.

TL;DR
AUD - CPI y.y.png

The projected CPI y/y stands at 5.5%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous figure of 5.6%.

The forthcoming CPI y/y data is scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 29, 2023, at 12:30 AM GMT.

The last time, the Australian CPI y/y was announced on 25th of October 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (AUDUSD M5) below:

25-10-2023-CPI-yy-AUD.jpg
NZD – Official Cash Rate​

In the realm of currency valuation, the focus on short-term interest rates stems from their significant impact on market dynamics, while other economic indicators are often scrutinized to anticipate potential shifts in these rates.

The Monetary Policy Committee had previously decided to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50%, aiming to moderate economic activity and control inflation. While New Zealand's GDP growth for the June quarter was unexpectedly high, the overall economic outlook remained muted, influenced by restrictive monetary policies. Internationally, slow growth and reduced inflation among trading partners impacted New Zealand's exports. The Committee emphasized the necessity of maintaining a restrictive OCR to manage inflation within the 1 to 3% target range and support sustainable employment. Concerns were noted about potential risks from insufficient economic slowdown and external factors like China's reduced demand impacting exports.

TL;DR
NZD – Official Cash Rate.png

According to recent forecasts, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to keep the interest rate unchanged at 5.5%, mirroring the previous rate.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is scheduled to announce its Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, November 29, 2023, at 1:00 AM GMT.


NZD - RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement​

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Monetary Policy Statement offers crucial insights into the bank's perspective on economic conditions and inflation, which are pivotal in shaping future monetary policy and guiding their decisions on interest rates.

The Monetary Policy Statement serves a critical function by detailing the approach and reasoning of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in achieving its operational objectives as defined in its remit. It fulfills key transparency and accountability requirements outlined in the MPC's charter. This includes explaining how the MPC has strived to meet the mandates of Section 2(2) of the remit, particularly in instances where inflation outcomes or expectations deviate from the target range, providing explanations for such deviations. Additionally, the statement elucidates the ways in which current monetary policy is facilitating the support of maximum sustainable employment, offering a comprehensive overview of the MPC's strategic economic interventions.

TL;DR

  • Explains MPC's approach and reasoning for meeting operational objectives.
  • Fulfills transparency and accountability requirements in the MPC charter.
  • Clarifies efforts to adhere to Section 2(2) of the remit.
  • Provides explanations for inflation deviations from the target range.
  • Elucidates how current policy supports maximum sustainable employment.
  • Offers a comprehensive overview of MPC's economic interventions.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Monetary Policy Statement is set for release on Wednesday, November 29, 2023, at 1:00 AM GMT.


NZD - RBNZ Press Conference​

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) utilizes its Press Conference as a key instrument to communicate with investors about monetary policy. This conference offers an in-depth discussion of the various elements influencing the latest interest rate decision, including the broader economic outlook and inflation trends. Crucially, it also sheds light on potential directions for future monetary policy, providing valuable clues for market participants.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has scheduled its Press Conference for Wednesday, November 29, 2023, at 02:00 AM GMT.


EUR – German Prelim CPI m/m​

A major portion of overall inflation is attributed to consumer prices. This aspect of inflation is critical in the valuation of currency, as central banks are prompted to increase interest rates in response to rising prices, fulfilling their mandate to control inflation.

In October 2023, Germany's consumer prices stabilized, showing no change following a 0.3% increase in September. Historical data reveals that from 1950 to 2023, Germany's monthly inflation rate averaged 0.21%, with a peak of 3.10% in October 1951 and a record low of -2.73% in January 1950.

The latest forecast for the German Preliminary CPI m/m suggests a slight increase to 0.1%, up from the previous figure of 0%.

The German Preliminary CPI m/m data is scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 29, 2023, at 1:00 PM GMT.

Last time, the German Preliminary CPI m/m was announced on 30th of October 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURJPY M5) below:
30-10-2023-German-Prelim-CPI-mm-EUR.jpg

EUR - Spanish Flash CPI y/y​

Consumer prices represent a significant portion of total inflation, which plays a crucial role in currency valuation as increasing prices prompt central banks to elevate interest rates in adherence to their mandate of containing inflation.

In October 2023, Spain's annual consumer price inflation remained steady at 3.5%, marking the highest rate in five months and mirroring the previous month's figures. Significant price increases continued in categories such as food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and hospitality services. There was a notable reduction in the decline of housing and utilities prices, particularly electricity. However, a significant slowdown was observed in transportation costs, especially fuel for personal transport. The core inflation rate dropped to 5.2%, the lowest since May 2022, aligning with initial estimates. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.3% in October, slightly up from September's 0.2% increase.

The forecast for the Spanish Flash CPI y/y is reading a slight decline to 3.4%.

The next release of the Spanish Flash CPI y/y is set for Wednesday, November 29, 2023, at 08:00 AM GMT.

Last time, the Spanish Flash CPI y/y was announced on 30th of October 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURUSD M5) below:
30-10-2023-Spanish-Flash-CPI-yy-EUR.jpg

USD - Prelim GDP q/q​

The Preliminary GDP q/q is the most comprehensive indicator of economic activity and serves as the principal measure of an economy's overall health.

In the third quarter of 2023, the U.S. economy experienced robust growth, expanding by an annualized 4.9%, the highest since late 2021 and surpassing forecasts of 4.3%. This marked a notable increase from the 2.1% growth in Q2. The surge was primarily fueled by a 4% rise in consumer spending, led by sectors like housing, healthcare, and nondurable goods. Export growth rebounded significantly, and imports also increased. Private inventories contributed positively for the first time in three quarters, and residential investment saw its first increase in nearly two years. While government spending grew faster, there was a minor contraction in nonresidential investment, primarily due to a decline in equipment spending.

TL;DR
USD - Prelim GDP q.q.png

The forecast for the quarterly Preliminary GDP shows an expectation of a 4.9% increase, signaling a notable uptick in economic activity.

The forthcoming Preliminary GDP q/q data is scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 29, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.







Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


30 November 2023​

Thursday​

On Thursday, November 30th, 2023, significant economic data is poised to emerge from key global economies. China will unveil its Manufacturing PMI, Canada is scheduled to disclose its GDP m/m figures, and the United States will release both the Core PCE Price Index m/m data and Unemployment Claims statistics. These pivotal announcements are expected to provide valuable insights into the economic landscapes of these nations.​


CNY - Manufacturing PMI​

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stands as a crucial gauge of economic vitality. Reflecting rapid business responses to shifting market dynamics, this index is anchored in the insights of purchasing managers who offer a timely and pertinent perspective on their companies' economic outlook. It is underpinned by a comprehensive survey reaching 3,000 purchasing managers, who evaluate various business parameters such as employment trends, production volumes, new order influx, pricing structures, supplier delivery efficiency, and inventory statuses. These collective responses shape a clear picture of the manufacturing sector's health and, by extension, the broader economic landscape.

In October 2023, China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 49.5, falling below market expectations of 50.2. This decline reflects the fragility of the nation's economic recovery, indicating the need for additional government support measures. New orders contracted, foreign sales declined, and employment continued to decrease, while output and buying levels also saw softer growth. Input price inflation decreased to a three-month low, and output prices fell for the first time in three months. However, business confidence showed a slight improvement.

TL;DR

CNY - Manufacturing PMI.png

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is forecasted to remain steady at 49.5, mirroring its previous level, indicating consistent industry conditions.

The upcoming Manufacturing PMI report is scheduled for release at 1:30 AM GMT on Thursday, November 30th, 2023.


CAD - GDP m/m​

GDP m/m is a crucial indicator of economic health, reflecting the nation's overall economic well-being and vitality.

In August, real gross domestic product (GDP) remained virtually stagnant for the second consecutive month, with several factors including rising interest rates, inflation, forest fires, and drought conditions exerting pressure on the economy. During the month, services-producing industries saw a modest 0.1% increase, whereas goods-producing industries contracted by 0.2%. In total, 8 out of 20 industrial sectors experienced growth.

In September 2023, Canada's GDP showed no growth, reflecting a stagnation in the third quarter due to declines in sectors like mining, quarrying, and utilities, despite gains in construction and public sector output. This stagnation aligns with the Bank of Canada's observations of dampened demand due to rising borrowing costs, with notable contractions in manufacturing, food services, and retail trade, but gains in mining and oil and gas extraction due to increased oil prices.

TL;DR

CAD - GDP m.m.png

The GDP m/m forecast shows a stable trend, with no change expected at 0%, maintaining the same level as in the previous period.

The upcoming release of the GDP m/m data is scheduled for Thursday, November 30, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.

The last time, the Canadian GDP m/m was announced on 31st of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDCAD M5) below:

31-10-2023-GDP-mm-CAD.jpg

USD - Core PCE Price Index m/m​

Inflation, a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, plays a significant role in currency valuation as rising prices lead the central bank to increase interest rates, fulfilling its mandate to effectively manage inflation.

In September 2023, the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding volatile items like food and energy, rose by 0.3%, meeting market forecasts and marking the most significant rise in four months. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rate, closely watched by the Federal Reserve, edged down to 3.7%, still above the central bank's 2% target. The broader PCE index also saw a 0.4% month-on-month increase, consistent with August's figures and surpassing predictions, with a year-on-year rate of 3.4%, in line with prior expectations.

TL;DR

USD - Core PCE Price Index m.m.png

The latest forecast for the Core PCE Price Index m/m indicates a consistent trend, with an expected rate of 0.3%, matching the previous figure.

The next Core PCE Price Index m/m data is set for release on Thursday, November 30, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.

The last time, the US Core PCE Price Index m/m was announced on 27th of October, 2023. You may find the reaction graph (USDJPY M5) below:

27-10-2023-Core-PCE-Price-Index-mm-USD.jpg

USD – Unemployment Claims​

The unemployment rate, a critical lagging indicator, plays a vital role in assessing a country's economic well-being. It directly affects consumer spending through labor market dynamics and significantly influences the development of national monetary policy.

The latest US unemployment claims dropped significantly to 209,000 in the week ending November 18th, surpassing market expectations and marking a sharp decline from the previous three-month high, while continuing claims also decreased. This decline eases concerns about a slowing labor market and could support the Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation. Additionally, the four-week moving average fell slightly, and a notable increase in non-seasonally adjusted claims was observed, particularly in California, Oregon, and Kentucky.

Recent forecasts suggest a modest rise in Unemployment claims, moving up from 220,000 to 222,000, indicating a slight shift in the job market.

The much-anticipated Unemployment Claims report is scheduled to be released on November 30th at 1:30 PM GMT, providing critical insights into the labor market's condition and its broader economic implications.

The last time, the US Unemployment Claims was announced on the 22nd of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (XAUUSD M5) below:

XAUUSD Unemployment Claims USD.jpg





Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


01 December 2023​

Friday​

Canada is scheduled to release its Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data on Friday, December 1, 2023, coinciding with the United States' unveiling of its ISM Manufacturing PMI figures.​


CAD – Employment Change​

Job creation, a key leading indicator, plays a crucial role in driving consumer spending, which forms a substantial part of overall economic activity.

In October 2023, Canada witnessed a notable increase in employment, with a gain of 17.5 thousand jobs. This data, which reflects the latest employment change, aligns with historical trends in Canada's labor market. Over the years, the country has experienced an average monthly employment change of 18.59 thousand jobs since 1976. Notably, the employment figures reached an unprecedented high of 1,035.8 thousand in June 2020, while the lowest point was recorded at -1,991.4 thousand in April 2020, marking a significant downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The forecast for the Canadian Employment Change is reading a decrease to 15.0 thousand.

The upcoming Employment Change data is scheduled for release on Friday, December 1, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.

The last time, the Canadian Employment Change was announced on the 3rd of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (AUDCAD M5) below:

03-11-2023-Employment-Change-CAD.jpg

CAD – Unemployment Rate​


Although often viewed as a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate is a critical measure of a country's economic health. This significance stems from the close relationship between consumer spending and labor market conditions, with changes in unemployment levels having a profound impact on consumer behavior and the overall economic state.

In October 2023, Canada's unemployment rate climbed to 5.7%, up from the previous month's 5.5%. This represents the highest level since January 2022 and surpasses market projections of 5.6%. The increase aligns with the Bank of Canada's cautionary note about the effects of its assertive interest rate hikes on the Canadian economy, leading to a slowdown and subsequently softer labor market conditions.

The latest forecast projects a marginal uptick in the unemployment rate, anticipated to rise from 5.7% to 5.8%, reflecting a small yet notable change in the labor market dynamics.

The next Unemployment Rate is set to be released on Friday 1st of December 2023 at 1:30 PM GMT.

03-11-2023-Unemployment-Rate-CAD.jpg

USD – Fed Chair Powell Speech​

In the U.S., interest rate decisions are split between the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board sets discount rates based on recommendations from regional Federal Reserve Banks, while the FOMC handles open market operations, determining the amount of central bank money or the target federal funds market rate.

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at its 22-year peak of 5.25%-5.5% for the second time in November. This decision reflects the Fed's aim to bring inflation back to the 2% target while avoiding overly aggressive monetary tightening. Policymakers are weighing the cumulative effects of past rate hikes, the delayed impact of monetary policy on the economy and inflation, and current economic and financial market conditions. In a press conference, Powell indicated that the September dot-plot, which predicted another rate hike in 2022, might no longer be valid. He mentioned that rate cuts have not been discussed yet, focusing instead on the possibility of further rate increases.

Fed Chair Powell is going to speak on the 1st of December, 2023 at 04:00 PM GMT.

The last time, Powell spoke on the 9th of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDJPY M5) below:

09-11-2023-Fed-Chair-Powell-Speaks-USD.jpg

USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI​

As a vital indicator of economic health, businesses quickly react to market changes, and their purchasing managers hold the latest and most relevant insights into the company's economic prospects.

In October 2023, the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States dipped to 46.7, falling from the previous month's ten-month high of 49 and notably below the anticipated reading of 49. This marks the eleventh consecutive contraction in the country's manufacturing sector. The data highlights the sector's vulnerability to the Federal Reserve's increased borrowing costs, indicating a potential decline in resilience among U.S. goods producers.

The upcoming forecast for the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) shows a slight decrease, moving from 46.7 to 46.5, indicating a subtle shift in manufacturing sector activity.

The upcoming release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI is set for December 1, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT.

The last time, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI was announced on the 1st of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPUSD M5) below:

01-11-2023-ISM-Manufacturing-PMI-USD.jpg





Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


04 December 2023​

Monday​

On Monday, December 4th, 2023, Switzerland is poised to unveil its eagerly anticipated CPI m/m figures. This significant economic indicator will provide valuable insights into the country's inflation trends and economic stability. Analysts and investors will be closely monitoring the release for potential impacts on financial markets and policy decisions.​


CHF - CPI m/m​

Consumer prices play a pivotal role in driving overall inflation rates. Inflation holds significant relevance in the context of currency valuation as increasing prices compel central banks to elevate interest rates in line with their commitment to managing inflation.

In October 2023, Switzerland experienced a 0.1 % increase in its Consumer Price Index compared to the preceding month. Historically, the average month-on-month inflation rate in Switzerland has been 0.18 percent since 1950. The peak of this rate was observed in November 1973 at 2.1 %, while the lowest point was recorded at -1.0 % in July 2004.

The latest forecast for the CPI m/m suggests a modest increase, projecting a rise of 0.2%. This figure is marginally higher than the previous month's increase of 0.1%, indicating a slight uptick in inflationary pressures.

The upcoming announcement for the CPI m/m is scheduled for release on Monday, December 4, 2023, at 07:30 AM GMT.

The last time, Swiss CPI m/m was announced on the 2nd of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (CHFJPY M5) below:

02-11-2023-CPI-mm-CHF.jpg




Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


05 December 2023​

Tuesday​

On December 5, 2023, Australia and the United States are set to make significant economic disclosures. Australia will announce its Cash Rate, while the United States will release information regarding the ISM Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings.​


AUD – Cash Rate​

Short-term interest rates are the primary determinant in the valuation of currencies. Traders often consider other indicators mainly to forecast future changes in these rates.

In November, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.35%, marking the 13th increase since May 2022. This decision, influenced by sustained inflation primarily due to escalating service costs, has elevated borrowing rates to their highest since January 2011. The CPI inflation is anticipated to hover around 3.5% by the end of 2024 and is expected to reach the higher end of the 2-3% target range by the end of 2025. The new governor, Michelle Bullock, highlighted that any future rate hikes would be based on ongoing data analysis and risk evaluation, with a focus on closely observing the global economy, domestic demand, as well as the inflation and labor market trends. Furthermore, the interest rate for Exchange Settlement balances has been increased to 4.25%.

TL;DR
AUD – Cash Rate.png
The forecast suggests that the RBA Rate will remain unchanged at 4.35%, consistent with the previous announcement.

The next announcement for the Cash Rate is set to be made on December 5, 2023, at 3:30 AM GMT.

The last time, the Australian Cash Rate was announced on the 7th of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (AUDJPY M5) below:

07-11-2023-Cash-Rate-AUD.jpg
AUD - RBA Rate Statement​

The announcement is a key instrument used by the RBA Reserve Bank Board to engage with investors regarding monetary policy. It includes the results of their decisions on interest rates and insights into the economic factors that shaped these decisions. Crucially, it provides an analysis of the economic forecast and hints at the direction of future policy decisions.

The statement regarding the RBA Rate is scheduled to be issued on December 5, 2023, at 3:30 AM GMT.


USD - ISM Services PMI​

This serves as a primary indicator of economic health. Businesses are quick to respond to market conditions, and their purchasing managers often have the most immediate and pertinent insights into the company's perspective on the economy.

In October 2023, the United States' ISM Services PMI saw a decrease to 51.8, a five-month low, falling notably short of the anticipated 53. This decline was reflected in a slower rise in business activity/production (54.1 compared to 58.8) and employment (50.2 as opposed to 53.4). Both inventories (49.5 versus 54.2) and new export orders (48.8 against 63.7) experienced a contraction. On a brighter note, there was an acceleration in new orders (55.5 against 51.8), and a slight moderation in price hikes (58.6 compared to 58.9). Furthermore, supplier deliveries improved, indicating faster performance at 47.5, a decrease from 50.4. Business sentiment currently shows a mix, with some firms optimistic about stability, while others raise concerns over inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical issues. Challenges related to labor, such as rising costs and shortages, continue to be significant in the economic environment.

TL;DR
USD - ISM Services PMI.png
The latest forecast for the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) shows a slight decrease, with predictions placing it at 51.5. This represents a marginal drop from the previous figure of 51.8, suggesting a subtle slowdown in the services sector's growth.

The upcoming ISM Services PMI announcement is scheduled for December 5, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT.

The last time, the US ISM Services PMI was announced on the 3rd of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPUSD M5) below:
03-11-2023-ISM-Services-PMI-USD.jpg

USD - JOLTS Job Openings​

Traders value this data highly even though it is released with a delay, as it has the potential to significantly impact the market. The number of job openings is considered a key indicator of the overall employment landscape, highlighting the importance of this information for market participants.

In September 2023, the number of job openings in the United States increased by 56,000 from the previous month, reaching a four-month peak of 9.55 million. This rise surpassed market forecasts, which had projected 9.25 million job openings. The increase was particularly notable in the accommodation and food services sector, which added 141,000 jobs, and the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector, which grew by 39,000 jobs. However, there were decreases in job openings in other services, losing 124,000 positions, the federal government, which shed 43,000 jobs, and the information sector, which saw a reduction of 41,000 jobs.

TL;DR
USD - JOLTS Job Openings.png
The most recent forecast for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) anticipates a slight decrease in job openings, with the figure projected to be around 9.4 million. This marks a minor decline from the previous figure of 9.553 million, indicating a subtle shift in the job market dynamics.

The upcoming JOLTS Job Openings report is scheduled to be published on December 5, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT.

The last time, the US JOLTS Job Openings was announced on the 1st of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPUSD M5) below:
01-11-2023-JOLTS-Job-Openings-USD.jpg




Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


06 December 2023​

Wednesday​

In an upcoming series of significant economic developments scheduled for Wednesday, December 6, 2023, several countries are poised to release key financial data. Australia is set to announce its latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on a quarterly basis. Meanwhile, the United States will provide updates on its ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a crucial indicator of employment trends outside the agricultural sector. Additionally, Canada is expected to disclose its latest Overnight Rate, an important benchmark for short-term interest rates. These announcements are highly anticipated by the global financial community, as they could offer valuable insights into the economic health of these nations.​


AUD – GDP q/q​

This is the most comprehensive indicator of economic activity and serves as the primary measure of the economy's overall health.

In the second quarter (Q2) of 2023, Australia's economy experienced a 0.4% increase, continuing its growth trajectory for the seventh consecutive quarter. The expansion was fueled by a boost in exports and investments, though this was somewhat balanced by shifts in inventory levels. Over the fiscal year 2022-23, the Australian economy witnessed a 3.4% growth, outperforming the 10-year pre-pandemic average growth rate of 2.6%. This notable growth primarily stemmed from a strong rebound in demand after the Delta-variant related lockdowns in the preceding fiscal year. When comparing the second quarter of 2022 with that of 2023, the year-over-year growth rate stood at 2.1%, excluding the influence of the recovery from the lockdowns.

TL;DR
AUD – GDP q.q.png
The latest forecast for the GDP q/q growth indicates a small downturn, with projections showing a 0.3% increase. This represents a slight decline from the previous figure of 0.4%, suggesting a modest slowdown in economic growth.

The forthcoming announcement for the GDP q/q is scheduled for release on Wednesday, December 6, 2023, at 12:30 AM GMT.


GBP – Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey Speaks​

In the United Kingdom, the benchmark interest rate is determined by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England. The key interest rate set by the MPC is known as the repo rate. This rate is specifically applied to open market operations conducted by the Bank of England with a selected group of financial institutions, which includes banks, building societies, and securities firms. The repo rate serves as a critical tool for the Bank of England in managing monetary policy, influencing the cost of borrowing, and ultimately affecting economic activity within the country.

During its November meeting, the Bank of England opted to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%, a 15-year high, marking the second time in a row this decision was made. This move comes amid signs of an economic slowdown in the UK, coupled with the ongoing issue of high inflation. The decision was made with a 6-3 vote by the Monetary Policy Committee, where the minority favored a rate hike of 25 basis points. The central bank underscored its commitment to a prolonged restrictive monetary policy to bring inflation down to the 2% target, and didn't rule out the possibility of further tightening if needed. Inflation forecasts have been marginally raised, and the GDP growth outlook indicates a stagnation in the UK economy in the last quarter, with only slight growth expected in the year's final quarter.

TL;DR
GBP – Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey Speaks.png
BoE Governor Bailey is set to speak on Wednesday, 6th of December, 2023, at 11 AM GMT.

Last time, BoE Governor Bailey spoke on the 29th of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPJPY M5) below:
29-11-2023-BOE-Gov-Bailey-Speaks-GBP.jpg

USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change​

Job creation serves as a crucial leading indicator of consumer spending, which constitutes the bulk of overall economic activity.

In October 2023, U.S. private sector employment saw an increase of 113,000 jobs, falling slightly short of the anticipated 150,000, yet still outperforming the previous month's 89,000 increase. This continued job growth, exceeding the monthly benchmark of 70,000-100,000 needed to keep up with the expanding working-age population, suggests that the labor market remains strong in the face of the Federal Reserve's tightening measures. The service sector was at the forefront, adding 107,000 jobs, with notable contributions from education and health services (+45,000), trade, transportation, and utilities (+35,000), financial activities (+21,000), and leisure and hospitality (+17,000). The goods-producing sector also showed positive movement, adding 6,000 jobs, thanks to growth in construction (+4,000) and manufacturing (+3,000).

TL;DR
USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.png
The upcoming forecast for the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change suggests a modest decrease in job creation, with expectations set at 95,000 new jobs. This figure is slightly lower than the previous month's total of 113,000, indicating a small dip in employment growth.

The next release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is scheduled for Wednesday, December 6, 2023, at 1:15 PM GMT.

The last time, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change was announced on the 1st of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDCHF M5) below:

01-11-2023-ADP-Non-Farm-Employment-Change-USD.jpg

CAD - BOC Rate Statement​

This is the main instrument used by the Bank of Canada (BOC) to communicate with investors about its monetary policy. It includes details of their interest rate decisions and provides commentary on the economic conditions that influenced these decisions. Crucially, it also covers the economic outlook and gives hints about possible future policy decisions.

The Bank of Canada's Rate Statement is scheduled for release on Wednesday, December 6, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT.


CAD - Overnight Rate​

Short-term interest rates are the most crucial element in determining the value of a currency. Traders typically examine other indicators mainly to forecast how these rates might shift in the future.

At their October 2023 meeting, the Bank of Canada maintained the overnight rate at 5%, aligning with market predictions. They noted that upcoming rate decisions will be guided by economic data. This decision represented the second halt in their tightening cycle, acknowledging the impact of earlier rate increases on economic activities and price dynamics. Current data showed a deceleration in inflation and a plateau in GDP and retail sales. The Bank is focusing on stabilizing inflation at around 2% by 2025 while keeping a close watch on high energy prices and wage increases as potential challenges.

The forecast indicates stability in Canada's Overnight Rate, remaining at 5.00% as in the previous announcement.

The next announcement for the Overnight Rate is scheduled for Wednesday, December 6, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT.

The last time, the Canadian Overnight Rate was announced on the 25th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDCAD M5) below:

25-10-2023-Overnight-Rate-CAD.jpg





Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


07 December 2023​

Thursday​

On Thursday, December 7, 2023, the United States is scheduled to release its Unemployment Claims figures.​


USD – Unemployment Claims​

While typically considered a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate is a crucial measure of economic well-being since consumer spending closely mirrors the state of the job market. Additionally, unemployment figures are a significant factor for decision-makers in shaping the nation's monetary policy.

In the latest labor market update for the week ending November 25, the United States saw a slight uptick in initial jobless claims. The seasonally adjusted figure rose to 218,000, marking a 7,000 increase from the prior week's revised level, which itself was adjusted upward by 2,000 to 211,000. However, the four-week moving average, a more stable measure, dipped slightly to 220,000, a reduction of 500 from the previous week's revised average. In a related development, the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate for the week ending November 18 climbed modestly to 1.3%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits also rose, reaching 1,927,000 - the highest since November 27, 2021. This figure represents an 86,000 increase from the preceding week's revised level. Concurrently, the four-week moving average for insured unemployment reached 1,865,750, the highest since December 11, 2021, and an increase of 28,750 from the prior week's revised average.

TL;DR
USD – Unemployment Claims.png

The Forecasts suggest a moderate increase in unemployment claims, moving up from the previous figure of 218,000 to an anticipated 225,000.

The upcoming release of the Unemployment Claims is scheduled for Wednesday, December 7, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.

The last time, the US Unemployment Claims was announced on the 30th of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPUSD M5) below:

30-11-2023-Unemployment-Claims-USD.jpg




Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


08 December 2023​

Friday​

In a significant development for the U.S. economy, a series of key reports are set to be released on Friday, December 8, 2023. These include the monthly Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. This comprehensive economic data is highly anticipated as it provides valuable insights into the current state of the U.S. labor market and consumer confidence.​


USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m​

This serves as a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Typically, when businesses incur higher labor costs, these increased expenses are often passed on to consumers.

In October 2023, the average hourly earnings of all U.S. private nonfarm workers rose by 7 cents, a 0.2% increase, bringing the rate to $34.00. This growth was a notch below the expected 0.3% and followed a revised increase of 0.3% in September. In the same month, hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees went up by 10 cents, or 0.3%, reaching $29.19. Annually, these earnings have seen a 4.1% increase, the smallest since June 2021, after a revised 4.3% rise in September, slightly exceeding the anticipated 4% growth.

The latest forecast for Average Hourly Earnings m/m basis shows a steady trend, with projections remaining unchanged at 0.2%. This figure matches the previous month's result, indicating a consistent pace in wage growth.

The upcoming release of the Average Hourly Earnings m/m is scheduled for Friday, December 8, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.

The last time, the US Average Hourly Earnings m/m was announced on the 3rd of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURUSD M5) below:

03-11-2023-Average-Hourly-Earnings-mm-USD.jpg

USD - Non-Farm Employment Change​

Job creation is a key leading indicator of consumer spending, which forms a substantial portion of overall economic activity. When employment levels rise, more individuals have income to spend, thereby boosting consumer spending and driving economic growth.

In October 2023, the U.S. economy experienced a notable slowdown in job growth, adding 150,000 jobs, significantly less than the revised September figure of 297,000 and below market expectations of 180,000. This cooling in the labor market is partially attributed to strikes, including those by UAW members affecting manufacturing payrolls. Noteworthy gains occurred in healthcare, adding 58,000 jobs, and government employment, which returned to pre-pandemic levels with 51,000 new jobs. Other sectors such as construction, social assistance, leisure and hospitality, and professional and business services also saw increases. However, manufacturing faced a sharp decline, losing 35,000 jobs, primarily in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing due to strike activities. Despite falling short of the 258,000 average monthly job gain over the past year, October's figures still exceed the monthly job growth needed to keep pace with the working-age population increase.

TL;DR

  • U.S. job growth slowed in October 2023, adding only 150,000 jobs.
  • September's job growth was higher at 297,000; market expected 180,000 in October.
  • Strikes, particularly in the auto sector, impacted job numbers.
  • Healthcare (+58,000 jobs) and government (+51,000 jobs) saw significant gains.
  • Manufacturing lost 35,000 jobs, mainly due to strikes.
  • Despite the slowdown, job growth exceeds the rate needed for working-age population growth.

The forecast for the Non-Farm Employment Change is projecting an increase to 175,000 jobs, slightly surpassing the previous figure of 150,000. This indicates a modest uptick in job creation across various sectors.

The upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change report is scheduled for release on Friday, December 8, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.

The last time, the US Non-Farm Employment Change was announced on the 3rd of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURUSD M5) below:

03-11-2023-Non-Farm-Employment-Change-USD.jpg

USD - Unemployment Rate​

While typically categorized as a lagging indicator, the count of individuals without employment holds significant implications for the broader economic well-being. This is due to the strong correlation between consumer spending and labor-market conditions. Furthermore, unemployment is a pivotal factor underpinning the decisions of those responsible for shaping the nation's monetary policy.

In October 2023, the United States witnessed a slight increase in its unemployment rate, which rose to 3.9%. This exceeded both market expectations and the previous month's rate of 3.8%. This marks the highest level of joblessness recorded since January 2022, with the number of unemployed individuals growing by 146,000, reaching a total of 6.51 million. Concurrently, the count of employed individuals decreased by 348,000, settling at 161.2 million. Additionally, the employment rate dipped from 60.4% in September to 60.2%, while the participation rate edged down from 62.8% to 62.7%. Notably, both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed individuals have increased by 0.5 percentage points and 849,000, respectively, since reaching their recent lows in April.

TL;DR

USD - Unemployment Rate.png
The Unemployment Rate remains steady, holding at 3.9% and mirroring the previous figure, indicating a stable job market situation.

The upcoming Unemployment Rate data is scheduled for release on Friday, December 8, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.

The last time, the US Unemployment Rate was announced on the 3rd of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURUSD M5) below:

03-11-2023-Unemployment-Rate-USD.jpg

USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment​

Confidence in the financial sector serves as a leading indicator for consumer spending, which constitutes a significant portion of the overall economic activity.

In November 2023, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the United States underwent a significant upward revision, reaching 61.3 from an initial reading of 60.4. However, it remained at its lowest level since May, marking the fourth consecutive decline in consumer sentiment. This mixed sentiment was driven by more positive current assessments and optimistic expectations regarding personal finances. Nevertheless, it was counterbalanced by a noticeable deterioration in expected business conditions. The gauge measuring current economic conditions was adjusted higher to 68.3 from the preliminary 65.7, although it fell short of the October figure of 70.6. Consumer expectations, on the other hand, dipped to 56.8, slightly below the initial reading of 56.9 and down from 59.3 in the previous month. Inflation expectations for the year ahead exceeded expectations, rising to 4.5%, surpassing the initial estimate of 4.4%, and reaching their highest point since April. Meanwhile, expectations for the five-year outlook remained at 3.2%, a level not observed since March 2011, in comparison to 3% the previous month.

TL;DR
USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.png
The forecast for the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index suggests a slight improvement, with the figure expected to rise to 61.4, marginally higher than the previous result of 61.3. This indicates a subtle uptick in consumer confidence.

The upcoming Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment release is set for Friday, December 8, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT.



09 December 2023​

Saturday​

China is set to announce its CPI y/y on Saturday, December 9, 2023.​



CNY – CPI y/y​

Consumer prices contribute significantly to the overall inflation rate. In the context of currency valuation, inflation plays a crucial role because when prices are on the rise, central banks tend to respond by raising interest rates.

In October 2023, China experienced an unexpected 0.2% year-on-year decrease in consumer prices, contrasting with the previous month's stability and economists' projections of a 0.1% decline. The drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was attributed to an abundant supply of agricultural products due to favorable weather conditions and reduced consumer spending following the Golden Week holiday early in October. Notably, food prices registered their most significant decline in 25 months, plummeting by 4%, primarily driven by a sharper decrease in pork prices. On the other hand, non-food inflation remained steady at 0.7%, with sectors like clothing, housing, health, and education seeing consistent cost increases. Transport prices also declined at a slower rate compared to the previous month. Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy costs, grew by a modest 0.6% year-on-year, marking the slowest growth in four months. Surprisingly, the CPI also showed a 0.2% month-on-month decrease, deviating from consensus expectations and following a 0.2% rise in September, adding an element of uncertainty to China's economic outlook.

TL;DR
CNY – CPI y.y.png
The latest forecast for the CPI y/y suggests a slight decline, with projections indicating a decrease to -0.3%, compared to the previous figure of -0.2%, signaling a marginal deepening of deflationary pressures.

The next CPI y/y is set to be announced on Saturday 9th of December 2023 at 1:30 AM GMT.







Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


11 December 2023​

Monday​


AUD – RBA Governor Bullock Speaks​

In Australia, the authority responsible for making decisions on interest rates lies with the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The key benchmark for these decisions is known as the official cash rate. This cash rate represents the interest rate applied to short-term loans exchanged among financial institutions and is shaped through the dynamics of the money market, where it emerges from the interplay between the demand for and the availability of overnight funds.

During its last meeting of the year, the Reserve Bank of Australia made the anticipated decision to maintain its cash rate at 4.35%. This move aligned with market predictions and provided Governor Michele Bullock's leadership with an opportunity to evaluate the consequences of previous rate increases. In a recent statement, Bullock expressed concern that inflation was primarily being driven by heightened domestic demand rather than external supply disruptions. The board acknowledged that progress in achieving the inflation target of 2 to 3% was slower than initially projected, with underlying inflation exceeding expectations due to mounting service costs.

Policymakers emphasized that any further tightening of monetary policy would hinge on forthcoming data and risk assessments. Additionally, the committee pledged to closely monitor global economic conditions, trends in domestic demand, as well as the outlook for inflation and the labor market. Furthermore, the central bank chose to leave the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances untouched at 4.25%.

TL;DR

  • RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.35% in its final meeting.
  • Governor Michele Bullock expressed concern over domestic demand-driven inflation.
  • Progress toward the inflation target of 2-3% was slower than expected.
  • Future monetary tightening depends on data and risk assessments.
  • RBA will closely monitor global economy, domestic demand, inflation, and labor market.
  • Interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances remained at 4.25%.

RBA Governor Bullock is poised to speak on Monday, 11th of December, 2023 at 10:20 PM GMT.






Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


12 December 2023​

Tuesday​

Significant economic updates are set for December 12th, with the UK scheduled to announce its Claimant Count Change and the US poised to release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.​


GBP – Claimant Count Change​

The number of unemployed individuals, despite being seen as a lagging indicator, is a crucial measure of the economy's health, as consumer spending closely aligns with labor market conditions. Additionally, unemployment rates are a key factor for policymakers in guiding the nation's monetary policy.

In October 2023, the UK saw an increase of 17.8 thousand in unemployment benefit claims, up from a revised figure of 9.0 thousand in the previous month. Historically, from 1971 to 2023, the average change in the UK's Claimant Count has been around 1.63 thousand. The highest recorded rise was 860.4 thousand in April 2020, with the lowest being a decrease of 169.2 thousand in June 2021.

The upcoming Claimant Count change is projected to show a rise, with forecasts anticipating an increase to 25,000, up from the previous figure of 17,800. This anticipated change suggests a notable shift in the employment landscape, reflecting evolving economic conditions.

The release of the Claimant Count Change data is scheduled for Tuesday, December 12, 2023, at 07:00 AM GMT.


USD – Core CPI m/m​

Consumer prices make up a significant portion of overall inflation. Inflation plays a crucial role in currency valuation, as increasing prices prompt central banks to hike interest rates in order to fulfill their mandate of containing inflation.

U.S. core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose by just 0.2% in October 2023, less than the expected 0.3% and down from September's 0.3% rise. This trend suggests a slowing U.S. economy and the significant effects of the Federal Reserve's stringent monetary policies. The services sector, minus energy, saw a reduced price increase of 0.3%, down from 0.6% in September. Additionally, commodity prices excluding food and energy fell for the fifth straight month, dropping by 0.1%, albeit less steeply than the 0.4% decline seen previously.

The prediction for the Core CPI m/m suggests it will remain steady, continuing at a rate of 0.2%.


USD – CPI m/m​

Consumer prices constitute the bulk of total inflation. Inflation significantly impacts currency value because, when prices increase, central banks often hike interest rates to adhere to their mandate of controlling inflation.

In October, the consumer prices in the United States remained unchanged, contrasting with the 0.4% increase in September and defying expectations of a 0.1% uptick. This stabilization was largely attributed to the shelter index, which continued to rise but at a slower pace of 0.3%, down from September’s 0.6%. This was offset by a significant 5% decline in the gasoline index, which had increased by 2.1% previously. Consequently, the overall energy index fell by 2.5% during the month, as the sharp drop in gasoline prices overshadowed rises in other energy sectors. In the meantime, the food index edged up by 0.3%, a slight increase from the 0.2% growth seen in the previous month. Breaking it down further, the index for food at home rose by 0.3%, up from the earlier 0.1%, while the index for dining out continued its growth at a steady rate of 0.4%.

TL;DR
USD – CPI m.m.png
The projected monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a marginal increase of 0.1%, just above the zero percent mark.


USD – CPI y/y​

The bulk of overall inflation is made up of consumer prices. Inflation plays a key role in determining the value of a currency, as increasing prices often prompt the central bank to hike interest rates in line with their mandate to keep inflation in check.

In October 2023, the U.S. saw its annual inflation rate drop to 3.2%, below the expected 3.3%, mainly due to a 4.5% decrease in energy costs, including significant reductions in gasoline, utility gas, and fuel oil prices. Food price increases slowed, as did the growth in shelter and new vehicle costs, while prices for used cars and trucks fell. Conversely, there were rises in apparel, medical care commodities, and transportation services. The Consumer Price Index remained stable, recording the lowest rate in 15 months and not rising as anticipated, balanced by lower gasoline costs against increases in shelter, natural gas, and food. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also increased less than forecasted, by 4% annually and 0.2% monthly.

TL;DR
USD – CPI y.y.png
The projected CPI y/y is expected to be 3.1%, marginally lower than the previous figure of 3.2%.

The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for release on Tuesday, December 12, 2023, at 1:30 PM Greenwich Mean Time (GMT).




Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.
 

Daniel LQDFX

Trader
Jul 21, 2023
86
0
12
42

Daily News Update


13 December 2023​

Wednesday​

Major economic announcements are lined up for Wednesday, December 13, 2023. The United Kingdom is set to disclose its monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, while the United States has a packed schedule with the release of the monthly Core Producer Price Index (PPI), overall PPI, and the Federal funds rate, accompanied by a press conference. Additionally, New Zealand will unveil its quarterly GDP data, marking a significant day for global economic insights.​


GBP - GDP m/m​

Gross Domestic Product, is the most encompassing indicator of a nation's economic health and the primary metric for assessing the overall condition of an economy.

In September 2023, the country's real GDP saw a modest uptick of 0.2%, a marginal improvement from August's 0.1% growth, which was a downward revision from an initially estimated 0.2%. This slight increase, however, did not shift the overall economic stagnation, as no significant growth was noted in the quarter ending in September. The growth was mainly driven by the services sector, particularly in professional, scientific, technical, and health and social work activities, which grew by 0.2% in September, albeit lower than the 0.3% increase in August. On the other hand, consumer-facing services experienced a 0.2% decline in September, following a more substantial 0.7% fall in August. Production output remained unchanged in September after falling by 0.5% in August, while the construction sector showed signs of recovery with a 0.4% growth after a 0.8% decline previously.

TL;DR
GBP - GDP m.m.png
The projected forecast for the GDP m/m is showing an expected change of 0%, which is a minor decline from the previous figure of 0.2%.

The upcoming announcement for the GDP m/m figures is scheduled for Wednesday, December 13, 2023, at 07:00 AM GMT.


USD - Core PPI m/m​

The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) is an important economic indicator that tracks the changes in prices paid to domestic producers for their goods, excluding the more volatile food and energy sectors. This exclusion makes it a more reliable measure of underlying inflation trends, as it is less affected by short-term swings in food and energy prices, unlike the headline PPI.

In October 2023, the Core Producer Prices in the United States, which omit the costs of food and energy, showed no change from the previous month, defying market predictions of a 0.2% increase.

The projected forecast for the Core PPI m/m suggests a rise to 0.2%, up from the previous rate of 0%.

The upcoming release of the Core PPI m/m data is scheduled for Wednesday, December 13, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.


USD - PPI m/m​

As a key predictor of consumer inflation, the principle is that when producers increase prices for goods and services, these higher costs are typically transferred to the consumer.

In October 2023, the United States experienced a 0.5% decline in producer prices from the previous month, the largest drop since April 2020. The decrease was mainly due to a 1.4% reduction in goods prices, led by a significant 15.3% fall in gasoline prices - the first such decline since May. This trend was echoed in price reductions for other items like diesel fuel, hay, oilseeds, home heating oil, liquefied petroleum gas, and light motor trucks. In contrast, tobacco products saw a 2.4% price increase, along with upticks in butter and residual fuels. Service prices remained unchanged, breaking a six-month streak of increases. This was due to a combination of a 1.5% increase in final demand transportation and warehousing services, a 0.1% rise in final demand services (excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing), offsetting a 0.7% decrease in final demand trade services margins.

TL;DR
USD - PPI m.m.png
The projected forecast for the PPI m/m suggests a 0.1% increase, a reversal from the previous -0.5% decline.

The next release of the PPI m/m data is set for Wednesday, December 13, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.


USD - Federal Funds Rate​

Short-term interest rates play a central role in determining currency value, with traders primarily assessing other indicators to forecast potential future rate changes.

In November, the Federal Reserve opted to keep the federal funds rate steady at 5.25%-5.5%, maintaining its 22-year high for the second consecutive meeting. This decision underscores the Fed's commitment to addressing inflation while avoiding excessive tightening. Policymakers emphasized the need to assess the repercussions of prior rate increases, the time lag in the impact of policy adjustments on the economy, and broader economic and financial market developments. Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that the previously anticipated possibility of one more rate hike this year might no longer be applicable, and rate cuts were not being considered. The central focus remains on the potential necessity for additional rate hikes.

TL;DR
USD - Federal Funds Rate.png
The forecast for the Federal Funds Rate suggests stability, with no changes expected, maintaining a rate of 5.5%.

The next announcement for the Federal Funds Rate is scheduled for Wednesday, December 13, 2023, at 7:00 PM GMT.


USD - FOMC Press Conference​

The press conference is a fundamental tool employed by the Federal Reserve to communicate its monetary policy position to investors. This event offers an extensive examination of the elements that have shaped recent decisions on interest rates and policy, accompanied by discussions on economic factors like the anticipated trajectory of future growth and inflation. Of utmost significance, it furnishes valuable insights and signals concerning the potential direction of future monetary policy.

In November, the Federal Reserve chose to keep the target range for the federal funds rate steady at its 22-year high of 5.25%-5.5%, marking the second consecutive meeting with this decision. The central bank's focus remained twofold: addressing inflation and avoiding excessive tightening of monetary policy. Policymakers stressed that any further adjustments to policy would be influenced by several factors, including the cumulative effects of previous rate hikes, the time it takes for monetary policy to impact the economy and inflation, and the ongoing developments in both economic conditions and financial markets. During the subsequent press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Powell suggested that the September dot-plot, which had previously indicated a majority of participants expecting another rate hike before year-end, might no longer be an accurate representation. Powell also clarified that discussions about rate cuts had not yet taken place within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The primary focus for the central bank remained centered on the potential need for additional rate hikes.

TL;DR

[*]Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in 22 years.

[*]Decision marks second consecutive meeting without a rate change.

[*]Focus on combating inflation while avoiding overly tight monetary policy.

[*]Policymakers consider previous rate hikes' cumulative effects and monetary policy's lag time.

[*]Monitoring ongoing economic and financial market developments.

[*]Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicates September dot-plot for future hikes may be outdated.

[*]No current discussions within FOMC about rate cuts.

[*]Primary focus on the possibility of additional rate hikes.

The upcoming FOMC Press Conference is scheduled for Wednesday, December 13, 2023, at 7:30 PM GMT.


NZD - GDP q/q​

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serves as the most comprehensive indicator of economic performance, acting as the foremost barometer for assessing the overall well-being and vitality of the economy.

New Zealand's economy had surpassed expectations with a 0.9% expansion in the June quarter of the previous year, elevating the yearly growth rate to 3.2% and steering clear of the technical recession territory. This unexpected turn was further bolstered by a revised increase of 0.1% in the March quarter figures, which were initially deemed negative. Typically, a recession was characterized by two successive quarters of negative growth, underscoring the subtleties in economic analysis. However, it was noteworthy that much of this growth was linked to population growth, with per capita GDP showing only a modest 0.2% rise in June and a 1.6% decline from October 2022 to March 2023. This discrepancy highlighted why some people might have still felt economic strains despite the overall positive growth figures. BNZ economist Doug Steel, who had predicted this outcome, continued to point out the ongoing economic challenges faced by many, regardless of the technical avoidance of a recession.

TL;DR
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The projected GDP q/q figures suggest a downturn to -0.1%, a decrease from the previous rate of 0.9%.

The upcoming GDP q/q is scheduled for release on Wednesday, December 13, 2023, at 9:45 PM GMT.






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