Starting with 21.05.2014, TradeFort broker, in terms of informational support
for current and potential traders, will be presenting analytical overviews
on major currency pairs on Earn Forex Forum.
TradeFort - Fundamental and technical analysis
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- Start date
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Starting with 21.05.2014, TradeFort broker, in terms of informational support
for current and potential traders, will be presenting analytical overviews
on major currency pairs on Earn Forex Forum.
22.05.2014
Fundamental analysis
The dollar fell against the yen and the British pound, but rose to the commodity currencies; it little changed against other major currencies. Fed's Dudley said that the growth rates would be relatively slow, but they would depend on the economy state. Between the end of the Fed's asset repurchase autumn and the first rate increase – it will take a considerable time period.
The euro was traded slightly lower on Germany manufacturing inflation weak data. Producer Price Index (PPI) fell in April by 0.1 % compared with the previous month, whereas no change was expected. In annual terms, manufacturing inflation fell by 0.9 % against decrease expectations by 0.8% - the producer price has been decreasing the ninth consecutive months in a roll.
The UK consumer price inflation positive report supported the demand for the GBP/USD pair. The final rate rose to 1.8 % on an annualized basis, exceeding the market participant’s expectations. As we noted in our previous review - unemployment reducing combined with a moderate rise in consumer confidence indicator from GfK indicates an increase in Albion inflationary pressure. Against this background, GBP/USD went up.
The Japanese stock market sales led to the USD/JPY lowering yesterday. Investors get rid of Japanese shares before the Bank of Japan monetary - credit policy meeting and amid this "bears" rushed to open short positions in the profit earning hope.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General Overview
The single European currency fell against the dollar. Though the euro/dollar continued a lateral "drift" it fell a bit to the low range boundary. Perhaps the market is waiting for new drivers while the Eurozone was newsflow empty for several sessions. The Germany producer showed a fall in April more than expected, and had a downward effect on the pair.
Six days in a row the euro continues to consolidate near the two strong levels: rising trendline 1.3700 and strong support level 1.3680.
The price is finding the first support at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3610. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3710, the next one is at 1.3760.
There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
All indicators show a downward movement. We predict a bearish scenario The first target is 1.3650. If the pair breaks the first target it will go to 1.3600.
Pound (GBP)
General Overview
The British sterling grew up against the dollar in yesterday’s trading. The pound received a support after the inflation publication has shown some growth. As it turned out, the UK annual inflation rate rose in April, but the value was in the forecasts range, therefore, it is likely that pound buying splash was not developed and fleet.
On the daily chart the Pound continues to trade in the rising trend line direction. There is an up strong resistance level 1.6830 breakthrough on the inside daily timeframe.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6940, the next one is at 1.7000.
There is a non-confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be continued as long the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading in the upward channel buyers remain strong. The bulls’ target is the level 1.7000.
Fundamental analysis
The dollar fell against the yen and the British pound, but rose to the commodity currencies; it little changed against other major currencies. Fed's Dudley said that the growth rates would be relatively slow, but they would depend on the economy state. Between the end of the Fed's asset repurchase autumn and the first rate increase – it will take a considerable time period.
The euro was traded slightly lower on Germany manufacturing inflation weak data. Producer Price Index (PPI) fell in April by 0.1 % compared with the previous month, whereas no change was expected. In annual terms, manufacturing inflation fell by 0.9 % against decrease expectations by 0.8% - the producer price has been decreasing the ninth consecutive months in a roll.
The UK consumer price inflation positive report supported the demand for the GBP/USD pair. The final rate rose to 1.8 % on an annualized basis, exceeding the market participant’s expectations. As we noted in our previous review - unemployment reducing combined with a moderate rise in consumer confidence indicator from GfK indicates an increase in Albion inflationary pressure. Against this background, GBP/USD went up.
The Japanese stock market sales led to the USD/JPY lowering yesterday. Investors get rid of Japanese shares before the Bank of Japan monetary - credit policy meeting and amid this "bears" rushed to open short positions in the profit earning hope.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General Overview
The single European currency fell against the dollar. Though the euro/dollar continued a lateral "drift" it fell a bit to the low range boundary. Perhaps the market is waiting for new drivers while the Eurozone was newsflow empty for several sessions. The Germany producer showed a fall in April more than expected, and had a downward effect on the pair.
Six days in a row the euro continues to consolidate near the two strong levels: rising trendline 1.3700 and strong support level 1.3680.
The price is finding the first support at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3610. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3710, the next one is at 1.3760.
There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
All indicators show a downward movement. We predict a bearish scenario The first target is 1.3650. If the pair breaks the first target it will go to 1.3600.
Pound (GBP)
General Overview
The British sterling grew up against the dollar in yesterday’s trading. The pound received a support after the inflation publication has shown some growth. As it turned out, the UK annual inflation rate rose in April, but the value was in the forecasts range, therefore, it is likely that pound buying splash was not developed and fleet.
On the daily chart the Pound continues to trade in the rising trend line direction. There is an up strong resistance level 1.6830 breakthrough on the inside daily timeframe.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6940, the next one is at 1.7000.
There is a non-confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be continued as long the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading in the upward channel buyers remain strong. The bulls’ target is the level 1.7000.
Yen (JPY)
General Overview
The pair is downwardly traded. The yen grew against the dollar, but didn’t rise out beyond previously formed extrema, and was limited with the range growth. Obviously, the pressure on pair was exerted by the renewed decrease in the U.S. "treasuries" market yields and the Bank of Japan decision expectations of making at a rate meeting that ended on Wednesday. We doubt that the Bank of Japan will continue to expand its monetary policy tapering the near future.
Four months of long consolidation at 101.35 - 101.45 led to its breakthrough. The breakdown occurred at the diminishing volumes and can lead to consolidation at around 101.15 in the short term.
The price is finding the support at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
If the price fixates below the support 101, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 100.90 and 100.40.
Franc (CHF)
General Overview
The Swiss franc was traded in a fairly narrow range. The American session was full with Fed’s new. So, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said that the Fed might be forced to raise interest rates sooner than it was expected. He also noted that the unemployment rate forecast 6.2% at the annualized basis may be too pessimistic, but decrease below 6% by the end of 2014 is quite possible.
His colleague, New York Fed President William Dudley said that «nobody knows" when the Federal Reserve would raise its interest rates.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.
Trading recommendations
The pair is close to the strong resistance. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 0.8990.
General Overview
The pair is downwardly traded. The yen grew against the dollar, but didn’t rise out beyond previously formed extrema, and was limited with the range growth. Obviously, the pressure on pair was exerted by the renewed decrease in the U.S. "treasuries" market yields and the Bank of Japan decision expectations of making at a rate meeting that ended on Wednesday. We doubt that the Bank of Japan will continue to expand its monetary policy tapering the near future.
Four months of long consolidation at 101.35 - 101.45 led to its breakthrough. The breakdown occurred at the diminishing volumes and can lead to consolidation at around 101.15 in the short term.
The price is finding the support at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
If the price fixates below the support 101, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 100.90 and 100.40.
Franc (CHF)
General Overview
The Swiss franc was traded in a fairly narrow range. The American session was full with Fed’s new. So, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said that the Fed might be forced to raise interest rates sooner than it was expected. He also noted that the unemployment rate forecast 6.2% at the annualized basis may be too pessimistic, but decrease below 6% by the end of 2014 is quite possible.
His colleague, New York Fed President William Dudley said that «nobody knows" when the Federal Reserve would raise its interest rates.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.
Trading recommendations
The pair is close to the strong resistance. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 0.8990.
26.05.2014
26.05.2014
Fundamental analysis
The U.S. currency showed strength against its major competitors last week. The EUR/USD lost some positions at 0.25 % after negative statistics release. The France and Germany manufacturing sector PMI index came out worse than median the forecast was which confirms the regional economy leading business negative trend. In the light of this we saw a European currency gradual weakening during the week.
The GBP/USD also remained under some pressure after the 1st quarter revised GDP data publication. The second estimate remained unchanged at 0.8 % qoq, while the industrial production growth and net exports were revised to decrease by 0.1%. The investors decided that the reason was the British pound high rate and began its active selling. As a result, the GBP/USD ended the last trading day lower by 0.2%.
The steady demand in global equity markets cheered the USD/JPY "bulls" to open long positions. It didn’t spoil the investor’s mood and moderately negative report on sales in the United States secondary housing market. The index rose by 1.3 % in April which is worse than the economists forecast. It should be noted that even though the final figures could not held up to the market participants expectations – nevertheless the housing market in April showed an increase after three consecutive months of falling, which means increased consumer confidence in the United States.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General Overview
The attitude towards the euro was cold, so the European currency was under pressure from the dollar by the end of Friday's session and was on the local marked minima that showed the dollar/yen the day before. Obviously, pessimistic investors are all have the same expectations from the ECB tapering in the coming June, coupled with economy data which could be described rather as weak. The first May evaluation business activity indicators showed a Eurozone decrease.
The price is finding the support at 1.3610. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.
There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
The inclined support line 1.3630 - 1.3625 that is on downward price way can become an obstacle where the price can bounce up.
If buyers are able to break above the mark 1.3610,we can expect the pair to test 1.3687 - 1.3700 soon.
Pound (GBP)
General Overview
The British pound also weakened against the dollar, and also, as the euro had not gone beyond the previously formed by a side corridor. As we see the pressure was from the weak data that were worse than expected.
The second resistance level retest 1.6910 was followed by the corrective rates down bounce. The price rebound fell to the rising channel bottom 1.6860. At this level it continues trading in real time.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6940.
The price is in the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in positive territory.
Trading recommendations
Based on the current situation, the price movement can go in two ways:
- The corrective pullback down continuation to 1.6830.
- The price growth from the current position to the resistance level 1.6910.
26.05.2014
Fundamental analysis
The U.S. currency showed strength against its major competitors last week. The EUR/USD lost some positions at 0.25 % after negative statistics release. The France and Germany manufacturing sector PMI index came out worse than median the forecast was which confirms the regional economy leading business negative trend. In the light of this we saw a European currency gradual weakening during the week.
The GBP/USD also remained under some pressure after the 1st quarter revised GDP data publication. The second estimate remained unchanged at 0.8 % qoq, while the industrial production growth and net exports were revised to decrease by 0.1%. The investors decided that the reason was the British pound high rate and began its active selling. As a result, the GBP/USD ended the last trading day lower by 0.2%.
The steady demand in global equity markets cheered the USD/JPY "bulls" to open long positions. It didn’t spoil the investor’s mood and moderately negative report on sales in the United States secondary housing market. The index rose by 1.3 % in April which is worse than the economists forecast. It should be noted that even though the final figures could not held up to the market participants expectations – nevertheless the housing market in April showed an increase after three consecutive months of falling, which means increased consumer confidence in the United States.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General Overview
The attitude towards the euro was cold, so the European currency was under pressure from the dollar by the end of Friday's session and was on the local marked minima that showed the dollar/yen the day before. Obviously, pessimistic investors are all have the same expectations from the ECB tapering in the coming June, coupled with economy data which could be described rather as weak. The first May evaluation business activity indicators showed a Eurozone decrease.
The price is finding the support at 1.3610. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.
There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
The inclined support line 1.3630 - 1.3625 that is on downward price way can become an obstacle where the price can bounce up.
If buyers are able to break above the mark 1.3610,we can expect the pair to test 1.3687 - 1.3700 soon.
Pound (GBP)
General Overview
The British pound also weakened against the dollar, and also, as the euro had not gone beyond the previously formed by a side corridor. As we see the pressure was from the weak data that were worse than expected.
The second resistance level retest 1.6910 was followed by the corrective rates down bounce. The price rebound fell to the rising channel bottom 1.6860. At this level it continues trading in real time.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6940.
The price is in the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in positive territory.
Trading recommendations
Based on the current situation, the price movement can go in two ways:
- The corrective pullback down continuation to 1.6830.
- The price growth from the current position to the resistance level 1.6910.
Yen (JPY)
General Overview
The Japanese stock market positive dynamics and strong Chinese data and manufacturing activity indicator rising in May supported the yen sales against the dollar. The dollar was able to maintain the buying impulse and thanks to the latest data that showed the positive results.
The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.
There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
A bounce down is possible. The potential bounce target is the level 101.35. If sellers can break through that support the price can be lowered to 100.40.
Franc (CHF)
General Overview
The dollar keeps moderately positive attitude on the generally positive economic data.
So, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, the Initial Jobless Claims rose from 298,000 to 326,000, while the average forecast was 305,000.
The sales in the secondary housing market showed a small increase 1.3 % in April after three consecutive months of a decrease. However, the index is still 6.8% below the year in April 2013.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.
Trading recommendations
We advise long positions with the first target - 0.8970. After consolidation above the first target, the buyers’ target is the level 0.9015.
General Overview
The Japanese stock market positive dynamics and strong Chinese data and manufacturing activity indicator rising in May supported the yen sales against the dollar. The dollar was able to maintain the buying impulse and thanks to the latest data that showed the positive results.
The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.
There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
A bounce down is possible. The potential bounce target is the level 101.35. If sellers can break through that support the price can be lowered to 100.40.
Franc (CHF)
General Overview
The dollar keeps moderately positive attitude on the generally positive economic data.
So, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, the Initial Jobless Claims rose from 298,000 to 326,000, while the average forecast was 305,000.
The sales in the secondary housing market showed a small increase 1.3 % in April after three consecutive months of a decrease. However, the index is still 6.8% below the year in April 2013.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.
Trading recommendations
We advise long positions with the first target - 0.8970. After consolidation above the first target, the buyers’ target is the level 0.9015.
28.05.2014
28.05.2014
Fundamental analysis
The new trading week is fairly quiet Forex market. The UK and in the U.S. banking institutions were closed, and against this background major pairs currency volatility has significantly decreased. The EUR/USD on a daily basis put on weight 0.15 %, demonstrating a technical correction. Mario Draghi said that the monetary regulator would not allow the inflation to remain too low for a long time.
It was also stated that the European consumer spending restrains his expecting lower price and it increases the risks to price region stability. These negative comments were ignored by investors during the day and the euro/dollar enjoyed moderate demand.
The GBP/USD trading was quietly enough during the day. On the background of low liquidity it was difficult to count on the volatility.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General survey
The European currency slightly fell against the dollar, which was probably the result of the technical levels influence, providing support for the pair now. We did not receive anything interesting from the Eurozone, still the general background rather plays against the euro after Mario Draghi said that the disinflation can cause consumers and businesses to postpone purchases and investments. The Bank will not allow the inflation to remain too low for a long period of time.
Trading recommendations
The potential pullback target may become the downtrend channel upper bound 1.3680. We expect it to retest the resistance level 1.3690. If the volumes are low, the price may bounce down. The potential decrease target is the price support level 1.3570
Pound (GBP)
General survey
The dollar strengthened against the pound. The reason is the technical factors that weakened the pair, as we know there was no release yesterday. It is expected that the report of the British Bankers' Association (BBA) will show a reduction in the April mortgage approvals number from 45.2 thousand to 45.9 previously.
There was a strong support level 1.6830 retest last Friday. The sellers once again failed to break below; there was price bounce up. The volumes do not support the correctional pound growth.
Trading recommendations
The price bounced off the strong support level 1.6830, a potential target for growth is the descending trendline 1.6890.
If the pair keeps falling it will reach 1.6830 soon.
28.05.2014
Fundamental analysis
The new trading week is fairly quiet Forex market. The UK and in the U.S. banking institutions were closed, and against this background major pairs currency volatility has significantly decreased. The EUR/USD on a daily basis put on weight 0.15 %, demonstrating a technical correction. Mario Draghi said that the monetary regulator would not allow the inflation to remain too low for a long time.
It was also stated that the European consumer spending restrains his expecting lower price and it increases the risks to price region stability. These negative comments were ignored by investors during the day and the euro/dollar enjoyed moderate demand.
The GBP/USD trading was quietly enough during the day. On the background of low liquidity it was difficult to count on the volatility.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General survey
The European currency slightly fell against the dollar, which was probably the result of the technical levels influence, providing support for the pair now. We did not receive anything interesting from the Eurozone, still the general background rather plays against the euro after Mario Draghi said that the disinflation can cause consumers and businesses to postpone purchases and investments. The Bank will not allow the inflation to remain too low for a long period of time.
Trading recommendations
The potential pullback target may become the downtrend channel upper bound 1.3680. We expect it to retest the resistance level 1.3690. If the volumes are low, the price may bounce down. The potential decrease target is the price support level 1.3570
Pound (GBP)
General survey
The dollar strengthened against the pound. The reason is the technical factors that weakened the pair, as we know there was no release yesterday. It is expected that the report of the British Bankers' Association (BBA) will show a reduction in the April mortgage approvals number from 45.2 thousand to 45.9 previously.
There was a strong support level 1.6830 retest last Friday. The sellers once again failed to break below; there was price bounce up. The volumes do not support the correctional pound growth.
Trading recommendations
The price bounced off the strong support level 1.6830, a potential target for growth is the descending trendline 1.6890.
If the pair keeps falling it will reach 1.6830 soon.
Yen (JPY)
General survey
The yen continued the growth. The last BoJ meeting minutes, which took place on April 30 affected the market. The minutes showed the disagreement that appeared among the Central Bank members in relation to the overcoming deflation terms. The Japanese data showed the corporate services growth in April, the price grew to 3.4% y/y vs. 0.7 % y/ y, although that may be considered as the Bank of Japan policy consequence, but still, most likely looks like a result of increased tax sales.
Trading recommendations
We believe that the price will consolidate for a while at around 102.23, then will bounce down. The sellers need to break the lower uplink bound 101.90 to confirm the break.
If the pair keeps growing it will get to 102.40 soon.
Franc (CHF)
General survey
The dollar keeps a moderately positive attitude. Switzerland will publish GDP (q/q) (Q1). The numbers are expected to be 0.6 % versus 0.2 %. If to compare with the previous year the growth will be 2.1% versus 1.7 %. The United States will publish the durable goods orders. In April, the main index is expected at 0.4 % vs. 2.6%.
Trading recommendations
It is recommended long positions with the first target - 0.8986. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9016.
General survey
The yen continued the growth. The last BoJ meeting minutes, which took place on April 30 affected the market. The minutes showed the disagreement that appeared among the Central Bank members in relation to the overcoming deflation terms. The Japanese data showed the corporate services growth in April, the price grew to 3.4% y/y vs. 0.7 % y/ y, although that may be considered as the Bank of Japan policy consequence, but still, most likely looks like a result of increased tax sales.
Trading recommendations
We believe that the price will consolidate for a while at around 102.23, then will bounce down. The sellers need to break the lower uplink bound 101.90 to confirm the break.
If the pair keeps growing it will get to 102.40 soon.
Franc (CHF)
General survey
The dollar keeps a moderately positive attitude. Switzerland will publish GDP (q/q) (Q1). The numbers are expected to be 0.6 % versus 0.2 %. If to compare with the previous year the growth will be 2.1% versus 1.7 %. The United States will publish the durable goods orders. In April, the main index is expected at 0.4 % vs. 2.6%.
Trading recommendations
It is recommended long positions with the first target - 0.8986. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9016.
29.05.2014
29.05.2014
Fundamental analysis
On Wednesday, the U.S. currency continued to strengthen against most of its competitors. The EUR/USD remained under pressure against the positive macroeconomic statistics publication from the United States. The orders for durable goods in April rose by 0.8 %, which indicates increased demand from the U.S. consumers and the positive factor for economic growth.
The euro was down against the ECB officials statements backdrop which reinforced expectations monetary policy easing, although it was slightly strengthened at the beginning of the day. The ECB Novotny said that inflation in the euro area was significantly below the target level ECB's 2%, and so low that there was a decrease growth risk. Novotny made it clear that the current discussions are directed toward interest rates lowering. The European Central Bank President Draghi said the ECB kept in mind the risks related with too long low inflation period still he did not see the deflation risk.
The Bears actively sold the GBP/USD pair yesterday. The States pleased investors with positive orders for durable goods and consumer confidence from Conference Board. Together with the EUR/GBP cross-course short positions closing - British pound significantly weakened against its U.S. counterpart.
The Rally in global stock markets supports the demand for the USD/JPY. Nevertheless, the "bulls" rather cautiously go long, knowing that in the face of rising inflationary pressures in the Land of the Rising Sun it is difficult to expect a strong Japanese yen weakening. As a result, the USD/JPY ended trading with symbolic increase by 0.1%.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The single European currency was not able to get support and fell again against the dollar in yesterday's trading. There was not published any important data on the Eurozone economy yesterday, and another Draghi’s speech in its content was more about euro sales.
The price is finding the support at 1.357. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
The pair is going down. The indicators show a downward movement. As long as the price is trading in the downward channel sellers remain strong. Please be advised to go short to 1.3570. If the price consolidates below the first target it will go to 1.3520.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The British pound is the most vulnerable currency this week. The falling market mortgage reports have pushed sterling to the sale which was then supported by the U.S. economy data. According to the report the British Bankers' Association BBA approvals for mortgage fell in April to 42.2 thousand from 45. 9 thousand and the expected reduction to only 45.0 thousand.
For the fifth time the British pound corrected to the week rising trendline 1.6790 and broke it.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6670, the next one is at 1.6600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6800.
The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.
Trading recommendations
The pair is decreasing. The indicators confirm a downward movement. The GBP/USD continued the downward movement on a high volume. The potential targets for the decrease are 1.6670 and 1.6600.
29.05.2014
Fundamental analysis
On Wednesday, the U.S. currency continued to strengthen against most of its competitors. The EUR/USD remained under pressure against the positive macroeconomic statistics publication from the United States. The orders for durable goods in April rose by 0.8 %, which indicates increased demand from the U.S. consumers and the positive factor for economic growth.
The euro was down against the ECB officials statements backdrop which reinforced expectations monetary policy easing, although it was slightly strengthened at the beginning of the day. The ECB Novotny said that inflation in the euro area was significantly below the target level ECB's 2%, and so low that there was a decrease growth risk. Novotny made it clear that the current discussions are directed toward interest rates lowering. The European Central Bank President Draghi said the ECB kept in mind the risks related with too long low inflation period still he did not see the deflation risk.
The Bears actively sold the GBP/USD pair yesterday. The States pleased investors with positive orders for durable goods and consumer confidence from Conference Board. Together with the EUR/GBP cross-course short positions closing - British pound significantly weakened against its U.S. counterpart.
The Rally in global stock markets supports the demand for the USD/JPY. Nevertheless, the "bulls" rather cautiously go long, knowing that in the face of rising inflationary pressures in the Land of the Rising Sun it is difficult to expect a strong Japanese yen weakening. As a result, the USD/JPY ended trading with symbolic increase by 0.1%.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The single European currency was not able to get support and fell again against the dollar in yesterday's trading. There was not published any important data on the Eurozone economy yesterday, and another Draghi’s speech in its content was more about euro sales.
The price is finding the support at 1.357. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
The pair is going down. The indicators show a downward movement. As long as the price is trading in the downward channel sellers remain strong. Please be advised to go short to 1.3570. If the price consolidates below the first target it will go to 1.3520.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The British pound is the most vulnerable currency this week. The falling market mortgage reports have pushed sterling to the sale which was then supported by the U.S. economy data. According to the report the British Bankers' Association BBA approvals for mortgage fell in April to 42.2 thousand from 45. 9 thousand and the expected reduction to only 45.0 thousand.
For the fifth time the British pound corrected to the week rising trendline 1.6790 and broke it.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6670, the next one is at 1.6600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6800.
The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.
Trading recommendations
The pair is decreasing. The indicators confirm a downward movement. The GBP/USD continued the downward movement on a high volume. The potential targets for the decrease are 1.6670 and 1.6600.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The dollar/yen yesterday's session was held in multidirectional trade and closed the day nearly on opening prices. Obviously, the market is waiting for new guidelines, as political events related to the Bank of Japan statements and contain conflicting signals and do not have certain conclusions. Under these conditions, the increased importance get the Japanese economy April data, especially the consumer price index (CPI) which will be released in the last trading day of the week and month.
The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.
There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The indicators do not give certain signals. The market content is bearish though the pair is in the upward movement. The potential sell target is 101.60.
The alternative growth variant is 1021.23.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The dollar rose to seven -week high after the report showed an unexpected increase in orders for durable goods in April.
Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for the U.S. GDP growth in the second half with a 3.50 % to 3.25 %. The forecast for the first quarter decreased to 0.8 % due to falling stocks, and the forecast for the second quarter maintained at 3.7 %.
The published U.S. statistics showed that orders for durable goods in April rose 0.8 % vs. 0.5 % and 2.5 % in March.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
The support is at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.
MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.
Trading recommendations
The pair is going upwards. The potential target for the growth is the resistance 0.9000.
General overview
The dollar/yen yesterday's session was held in multidirectional trade and closed the day nearly on opening prices. Obviously, the market is waiting for new guidelines, as political events related to the Bank of Japan statements and contain conflicting signals and do not have certain conclusions. Under these conditions, the increased importance get the Japanese economy April data, especially the consumer price index (CPI) which will be released in the last trading day of the week and month.
The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.
There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The indicators do not give certain signals. The market content is bearish though the pair is in the upward movement. The potential sell target is 101.60.
The alternative growth variant is 1021.23.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The dollar rose to seven -week high after the report showed an unexpected increase in orders for durable goods in April.
Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for the U.S. GDP growth in the second half with a 3.50 % to 3.25 %. The forecast for the first quarter decreased to 0.8 % due to falling stocks, and the forecast for the second quarter maintained at 3.7 %.
The published U.S. statistics showed that orders for durable goods in April rose 0.8 % vs. 0.5 % and 2.5 % in March.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
The support is at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.
MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.
Trading recommendations
The pair is going upwards. The potential target for the growth is the resistance 0.9000.
02.06.2014
02.06.2014
Fundamental analysis
We had a volatile the last trading day. The EUR/USD gained 0.1 % against the negative macroeconomic statistics from the United States. The second GDP estimate for Q1 came out worse than the median forecast, indicating a significant decrease in the world's leading economy in the first three months of this year. However, we have not seen the sharp dollar fall – euro downtrend is strong enough and one negative report is not enough to change the trend now.
There was consolidation near 67 figure on the GBP/USD during the last trading day. The technical analysis shows that the British currency is short-term oversold now and the investors quickly close their short positions. It should also be noted that the market participants have ignored the negative statistics from the U.S. GDP for Q1.
Though the world's leading stock markets strong growth - the USD/JPY has been swung for 4 consecutive days that can be a sign of a possible decrease in the short term. The U.S. GDP data revision also could not cheer the "bulls" to open long positions - according to the second estimate the index dropped to 1 % qoq which means the world economy locomotive significant slowing.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The European currency was influenced by the external events, mainly from the U.S., which resulted in the mixed traffic and, ultimately, against the "greenback" closure almost at opening prices with a small "profit" that was the result of the technical factors. The Eurozone newsflow did not show any significant news. The information that could attract the investors’ attention had been already published it is April German retail sales that fell by 0.9 % m/m
The price is finding the support at 1.3570. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
Please be advised to go short to 1.3570. If the price consolidates below the first target it will go to 1.3520.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The British pound did not show independence, and in the news absence it showed the same volatility against the dollar as the euro. As a result, the "cable" nearly closed at opening prices. The GfK report announced an improvement in the consumer May confidence indicator to the level 0 from - 3, the Hometrack information showed that the housing prices continued to rise in May, although less rapidly, +0.5% m/m , 6.1 % y/y vs. 0.6 % m/m , 6.0 % y/y in April. While this facts support the sterling, and it grew up a bit against the dollar. However, the further events development is already dictated by the U.S. indicators results and it can shift the emphasis in favor of "greenback".
The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.
The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.
Trading recommendations
Please be advised to go short. Our targets are 1.6670 and 1.6630.
02.06.2014
Fundamental analysis
We had a volatile the last trading day. The EUR/USD gained 0.1 % against the negative macroeconomic statistics from the United States. The second GDP estimate for Q1 came out worse than the median forecast, indicating a significant decrease in the world's leading economy in the first three months of this year. However, we have not seen the sharp dollar fall – euro downtrend is strong enough and one negative report is not enough to change the trend now.
There was consolidation near 67 figure on the GBP/USD during the last trading day. The technical analysis shows that the British currency is short-term oversold now and the investors quickly close their short positions. It should also be noted that the market participants have ignored the negative statistics from the U.S. GDP for Q1.
Though the world's leading stock markets strong growth - the USD/JPY has been swung for 4 consecutive days that can be a sign of a possible decrease in the short term. The U.S. GDP data revision also could not cheer the "bulls" to open long positions - according to the second estimate the index dropped to 1 % qoq which means the world economy locomotive significant slowing.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The European currency was influenced by the external events, mainly from the U.S., which resulted in the mixed traffic and, ultimately, against the "greenback" closure almost at opening prices with a small "profit" that was the result of the technical factors. The Eurozone newsflow did not show any significant news. The information that could attract the investors’ attention had been already published it is April German retail sales that fell by 0.9 % m/m
The price is finding the support at 1.3570. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory.
Trading recommendations
Please be advised to go short to 1.3570. If the price consolidates below the first target it will go to 1.3520.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The British pound did not show independence, and in the news absence it showed the same volatility against the dollar as the euro. As a result, the "cable" nearly closed at opening prices. The GfK report announced an improvement in the consumer May confidence indicator to the level 0 from - 3, the Hometrack information showed that the housing prices continued to rise in May, although less rapidly, +0.5% m/m , 6.1 % y/y vs. 0.6 % m/m , 6.0 % y/y in April. While this facts support the sterling, and it grew up a bit against the dollar. However, the further events development is already dictated by the U.S. indicators results and it can shift the emphasis in favor of "greenback".
The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.
The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.
Trading recommendations
Please be advised to go short. Our targets are 1.6670 and 1.6630.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The Swiss franc fell against the dollar. The course practically ignored the country statistics.
The dollar keeps moderately positive attitude despite the weak U.S. GDP data in Q1. The labor market supported the U.S. currency in a way. The initial jobless claims fell to 300k vs. 318k.
The GDP in Q1 was decreased by 1.0 % q / q vs. 0.5 % q / q and 0.1% preliminary assessment.
It is unlikely that the data will have the lasting impact on the trading as the result cannot be called unexpected due to the last winter weather inclement.
The price is finding the first support at 0.892. The resistance is at 0.8950.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
The pair has stopped the growth and is showing the trend reversal. The pair may enter the cloud this week. If the pair stays under the cloud a while that might weaken the bullish momentum. The first downward target is the level 0.8920.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The Japanese currency was no exception and also ended the last session at the near opening prices after the multidirectional consolidation against the dollar. In this case, the main volatility cause was the U.S. debt market events which almost always affect the dollar/yen. Japan published news set from the previous month. The inflation dynamics and demand for yen was influenced by the sales tax increased in April, not from the Japan Bank's measures.
The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.
There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The indicators do not give certain signals. The market content is bearish though the pair is in the upward movement. The potential sell target is 101.60.
The alternative growth variant is 1021.23.
General overview
The Swiss franc fell against the dollar. The course practically ignored the country statistics.
The dollar keeps moderately positive attitude despite the weak U.S. GDP data in Q1. The labor market supported the U.S. currency in a way. The initial jobless claims fell to 300k vs. 318k.
The GDP in Q1 was decreased by 1.0 % q / q vs. 0.5 % q / q and 0.1% preliminary assessment.
It is unlikely that the data will have the lasting impact on the trading as the result cannot be called unexpected due to the last winter weather inclement.
The price is finding the first support at 0.892. The resistance is at 0.8950.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
The pair has stopped the growth and is showing the trend reversal. The pair may enter the cloud this week. If the pair stays under the cloud a while that might weaken the bullish momentum. The first downward target is the level 0.8920.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The Japanese currency was no exception and also ended the last session at the near opening prices after the multidirectional consolidation against the dollar. In this case, the main volatility cause was the U.S. debt market events which almost always affect the dollar/yen. Japan published news set from the previous month. The inflation dynamics and demand for yen was influenced by the sales tax increased in April, not from the Japan Bank's measures.
The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.
There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The indicators do not give certain signals. The market content is bearish though the pair is in the upward movement. The potential sell target is 101.60.
The alternative growth variant is 1021.23.
04.06.2014
Fundamental analysis
The U.S. dollar briskly started the first summer month. The EUR/USD lost 0.25% against the negative macroeconomic statistics. The preliminary CPI in Germany showed the inflationary pressure compression to the level 0.9 % year on year, the lowest level since July 2010. This report indicates that the Germans are under the negativity wave from the structural problems in the Eurozone now.
The States also well pleased the dollar "bulls"– the ISM manufacturing index in May was better than the median forecasts, has been showing the growth the 4th consecutive month.
The weak PMI report from Markit Economics for the UK manufacturing sector provoked short positions in the pair GBP/USD. This release confirms the fact that the British currency excessive growth is negative for the economy manufacturing sector. In a moment the GBP/USD price fell to 1.6724 mark, and then we watched a technical bounce, signaling the demand for sterling in figure 67.
The strong growth in the Japanese stock market on Monday cheered the "bulls" to open long positions. The 102.13 resistance level could not resist and we saw the maximum values update for the last 4 weeks.
Macroeconomic statistics from the United States also supported the demand for the U.S. dollar against the Yen - the ISM manufacturing sector was at 56, which is 0.3 better than the forecast surveyed by Bloomberg.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The euro fell against the dollar on Monday, still it has not left the consolidation range. The pressure on the single currency came from the economic data provided by the Eurozone manufacturing activity final assessment and the leading countries in May, as well as the German inflation report in the same month.
The price is finding the support at 1.3610. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The histogram is close to the zero level.
Trading recommendations
The consolidation at 1.3600 can lead to the price pullback up in the short term. To short confidently the sellers need to break and consolidate below the support level 1.3600. This breakthrough opens the way to the marks: 1.3570, 1.3520.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The pound/dollar spent a very boring session yesterday – it was traded in a narrow range and closed the day almost at opening prices, but with a dollar benefits mark. The "islands" statistics indicated unsatisfactory dynamics, still at the same time, showed that the economy recovers.
The short-term 1.6765 resistance level retest which was observed last Friday, was accompanied with the consolidation. The continued consolidation has not led to a rapid price bounce while the trading is still going on in the strong resistance area.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.
The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed downward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.
Trading recommendations
We are waiting for the second 1.6765 level retest. If the retest is false, it will be followed by a downward price bounce, back to the support level 1.6700.
Fundamental analysis
The U.S. dollar briskly started the first summer month. The EUR/USD lost 0.25% against the negative macroeconomic statistics. The preliminary CPI in Germany showed the inflationary pressure compression to the level 0.9 % year on year, the lowest level since July 2010. This report indicates that the Germans are under the negativity wave from the structural problems in the Eurozone now.
The States also well pleased the dollar "bulls"– the ISM manufacturing index in May was better than the median forecasts, has been showing the growth the 4th consecutive month.
The weak PMI report from Markit Economics for the UK manufacturing sector provoked short positions in the pair GBP/USD. This release confirms the fact that the British currency excessive growth is negative for the economy manufacturing sector. In a moment the GBP/USD price fell to 1.6724 mark, and then we watched a technical bounce, signaling the demand for sterling in figure 67.
The strong growth in the Japanese stock market on Monday cheered the "bulls" to open long positions. The 102.13 resistance level could not resist and we saw the maximum values update for the last 4 weeks.
Macroeconomic statistics from the United States also supported the demand for the U.S. dollar against the Yen - the ISM manufacturing sector was at 56, which is 0.3 better than the forecast surveyed by Bloomberg.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The euro fell against the dollar on Monday, still it has not left the consolidation range. The pressure on the single currency came from the economic data provided by the Eurozone manufacturing activity final assessment and the leading countries in May, as well as the German inflation report in the same month.
The price is finding the support at 1.3610. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The histogram is close to the zero level.
Trading recommendations
The consolidation at 1.3600 can lead to the price pullback up in the short term. To short confidently the sellers need to break and consolidate below the support level 1.3600. This breakthrough opens the way to the marks: 1.3570, 1.3520.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The pound/dollar spent a very boring session yesterday – it was traded in a narrow range and closed the day almost at opening prices, but with a dollar benefits mark. The "islands" statistics indicated unsatisfactory dynamics, still at the same time, showed that the economy recovers.
The short-term 1.6765 resistance level retest which was observed last Friday, was accompanied with the consolidation. The continued consolidation has not led to a rapid price bounce while the trading is still going on in the strong resistance area.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.
The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed downward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.
Trading recommendations
We are waiting for the second 1.6765 level retest. If the retest is false, it will be followed by a downward price bounce, back to the support level 1.6700.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The dollar keeps moderately positive attitude after the May ISM report corrected publication taking into account seasonal factors, which were not included in the original report released an hour earlier.
Thus the ISM index was revised from 53.2 to 56.0 and then to 55.4. We also expected the May business activity report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, after which the data will be available to investors on the production orders.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
Please be advised to long with the first target - 0.9015. When the price consolidates above the first target, be advised to buy to 0.9040.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The Japanese currency fell against the dollar in yesterday's trading. The impulse for the yen sales the pair received from the Chins industry data which showed good results and decreased concerns about a sharp slowdown in the "Middle Kingdom" economy. Besides, the willingness to take risks was maintained by optimism in the stock Japan market - Nikkei rose by more than 2.0 %, as well as stability of the U.S. Treasuries government debt market situation where the yield is high. Speaking of prospects, which began yesterday, the USD/JPY is likely to slow down - it is unlikely that the market was ready to an aggressive trading before important news from the euro area and the United States.
The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.
There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.
The MACD indicator left the neutral territory and started growing.
Trading recommendations
The growth main target is the strong resistance level 102.70.
General overview
The dollar keeps moderately positive attitude after the May ISM report corrected publication taking into account seasonal factors, which were not included in the original report released an hour earlier.
Thus the ISM index was revised from 53.2 to 56.0 and then to 55.4. We also expected the May business activity report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, after which the data will be available to investors on the production orders.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
Please be advised to long with the first target - 0.9015. When the price consolidates above the first target, be advised to buy to 0.9040.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The Japanese currency fell against the dollar in yesterday's trading. The impulse for the yen sales the pair received from the Chins industry data which showed good results and decreased concerns about a sharp slowdown in the "Middle Kingdom" economy. Besides, the willingness to take risks was maintained by optimism in the stock Japan market - Nikkei rose by more than 2.0 %, as well as stability of the U.S. Treasuries government debt market situation where the yield is high. Speaking of prospects, which began yesterday, the USD/JPY is likely to slow down - it is unlikely that the market was ready to an aggressive trading before important news from the euro area and the United States.
The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.
There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.
The MACD indicator left the neutral territory and started growing.
Trading recommendations
The growth main target is the strong resistance level 102.70.
05.06.2014
Fundamental analysis
Despite the negative macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone EUR/USD showed a growth of 0.2 %. The preliminary Eurozone CPI report came out worse than the forecast at 0.5% which once again confirms the presence of a deflationary threat. But the unemployment rate gave a little surprise, the total value amounted to 11.7%, which is 0.1 % better than the median of forecasts. The lowest unemployment recorded in Austria 4.9%, while in Greece and Spain is still a level of over 25%. The investors decided to take profit on short positions in anticipation of the ECB today's meeting.
GBP/USD "bulls" and "Bears" failed to reveal the winner yesterday. The construction sector PMI came below expectations that did not allow the "bulls" to consolidate above the resistance level 1.6773. It should also be noted that the figure drops 4 consecutive months that could indicate a possible peak in the growth phase and the subsequent decline.
After a small correction in the first half of the day the USD/JPY continued to rise again against the demand for risky assets. Investors are buying on pullbacks American and Japanese securities that pushes stocks up and supports the demand for the dollar/yen in the absence of important macroeconomic statistics.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The single European currency has grown up in yesterday's trading against the dollar. The euro still in a sideways and showed no new levels. However, under unfavorable for optimism statistics from the EU conditions, the fact that the euro strengthening was little understood and generally surprise event. Perhaps the market has already sufficient opened short positions while short-term investors took advantage of strong support to lock in profits.
The downward trend has moved into a side corridor between the levels 1.3645 - 1.3570. While the pair has been trading at the 1.3590 support level for five days. The short-term support retests are accompanied by the price rebounds up.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The histogram is close to the zero level.
Trading recommendations
If the pair keeps falling its targets are 1.3570 and 1.3520. The first target to grow is 1.3670. If today’s ECB meeting does not shock the market the downward movement continues.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
British pound was in the side trading against the dollar and closed the day at opening prices. The latest news marked the construction industry slowdown which disappointed the market. According to the report the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the construction sector fell to 60.0 in May from 60.8 in April which was worse than the forecast growth to 61.2. There is a chance that the Bank of England would discuss rates raising at its next meeting and it will provoke the pound growth.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.
The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed downward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.
Trading recommendations
We are waiting for the second 1.6765 level retest. If the retest fails, we will see a a downward price bounce, back to the support level 1.6700.
Fundamental analysis
Despite the negative macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone EUR/USD showed a growth of 0.2 %. The preliminary Eurozone CPI report came out worse than the forecast at 0.5% which once again confirms the presence of a deflationary threat. But the unemployment rate gave a little surprise, the total value amounted to 11.7%, which is 0.1 % better than the median of forecasts. The lowest unemployment recorded in Austria 4.9%, while in Greece and Spain is still a level of over 25%. The investors decided to take profit on short positions in anticipation of the ECB today's meeting.
GBP/USD "bulls" and "Bears" failed to reveal the winner yesterday. The construction sector PMI came below expectations that did not allow the "bulls" to consolidate above the resistance level 1.6773. It should also be noted that the figure drops 4 consecutive months that could indicate a possible peak in the growth phase and the subsequent decline.
After a small correction in the first half of the day the USD/JPY continued to rise again against the demand for risky assets. Investors are buying on pullbacks American and Japanese securities that pushes stocks up and supports the demand for the dollar/yen in the absence of important macroeconomic statistics.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The single European currency has grown up in yesterday's trading against the dollar. The euro still in a sideways and showed no new levels. However, under unfavorable for optimism statistics from the EU conditions, the fact that the euro strengthening was little understood and generally surprise event. Perhaps the market has already sufficient opened short positions while short-term investors took advantage of strong support to lock in profits.
The downward trend has moved into a side corridor between the levels 1.3645 - 1.3570. While the pair has been trading at the 1.3590 support level for five days. The short-term support retests are accompanied by the price rebounds up.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The histogram is close to the zero level.
Trading recommendations
If the pair keeps falling its targets are 1.3570 and 1.3520. The first target to grow is 1.3670. If today’s ECB meeting does not shock the market the downward movement continues.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
British pound was in the side trading against the dollar and closed the day at opening prices. The latest news marked the construction industry slowdown which disappointed the market. According to the report the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the construction sector fell to 60.0 in May from 60.8 in April which was worse than the forecast growth to 61.2. There is a chance that the Bank of England would discuss rates raising at its next meeting and it will provoke the pound growth.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.
The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed downward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.
Trading recommendations
We are waiting for the second 1.6765 level retest. If the retest fails, we will see a a downward price bounce, back to the support level 1.6700.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar. The published statistical supported the franc and against the background of zero inflation National Bank announces increase in its foreign exchange reserves.
According to the report submitted by the Federal Statistical Office the consumer prices level in March remained unchanged. This news was very positive amid predictions be expected to have lower price by 0.2%. The March index value was also a better indicator of February when prices fell by 0.1 %.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
The pair is overbought. We believe it might correct a bit. The correctional targets are 0.8920 and 0.8880.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The Japanese currency fell against the dollar again. Greenback growth against the yen was supported by the Japan stock market optimism where the Nikkei rose again and the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds to increase their profitability. It is possible that the market has remembered the Bank of Japan Governor H. Kuroda's statement that if there were risks to achieving the inflation target of 2.0%, then BoJ has ways to eliminate them through further monetary easing.
The buyers came to the resistance level 102.65 at decreasing volumes. The short-term level retest was accompanied by a small upper bound uplink 102.75 puncture which acts a further obstacle to the rising trend.
The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.
There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.
The MACD indicator is growing.
Trading recommendations
The growth main target is the strong resistance level 102.70. After consolidation above the pair might grow to 103.
General overview
Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar. The published statistical supported the franc and against the background of zero inflation National Bank announces increase in its foreign exchange reserves.
According to the report submitted by the Federal Statistical Office the consumer prices level in March remained unchanged. This news was very positive amid predictions be expected to have lower price by 0.2%. The March index value was also a better indicator of February when prices fell by 0.1 %.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
The pair is overbought. We believe it might correct a bit. The correctional targets are 0.8920 and 0.8880.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The Japanese currency fell against the dollar again. Greenback growth against the yen was supported by the Japan stock market optimism where the Nikkei rose again and the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds to increase their profitability. It is possible that the market has remembered the Bank of Japan Governor H. Kuroda's statement that if there were risks to achieving the inflation target of 2.0%, then BoJ has ways to eliminate them through further monetary easing.
The buyers came to the resistance level 102.65 at decreasing volumes. The short-term level retest was accompanied by a small upper bound uplink 102.75 puncture which acts a further obstacle to the rising trend.
The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.
There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.
The MACD indicator is growing.
Trading recommendations
The growth main target is the strong resistance level 102.70. After consolidation above the pair might grow to 103.
06.06.2014
Fundamental analysis
The investors continue to look with optimism at the U.S. currency. The EUR/USD lost 0.10% - in spite the fact that it was a short-term oversold the "bulls" could not take control. Even the negative statistics from the U.S. ADP employment and the trade balance did not reassure "bulls" to long. After the ISM services sector positive release there were sales. The total figure came at around 56.3, which is the maximum value over the past 8 months and confirms the U.S. economy strong growth in the second quarter.
The GBP/USD has been showing a "swing" for three consecutive days - "bulls" and "bears" cannot determine the winner. The UK Services PMI in May though was better than the forecast; nonetheless it showed a decrease compared with the previous months that did not give the British currency a strong support. The United States Statistics also failed to show to market participants the direction - two of four important reports came in the negative area and other two in the positive one.
The U.S. stock index S & P500 sets new and new historical high which supports the demand for shares in the Japanese stock markets. In the light of this we were witnessing the USD/JPY pair quotations growth. The states demonstrated mixed newsflow– the reports from ADP and the trade balance went worse then the forecast was while investors were pleased with the services sector ISM. The ISM employment also showed a growth in the second spring month, indicating a possible exit data on Non-Farm slightly better than expected.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The ECB lowered the rates as the result the European currency showed mixed volatility against the dollar and closed the day with losses yesterday, but within the formed range. The frustration on the single currency was provoked and by the weak activity estimate in the service sector and the Eurozone as a whole unit. The managers' index (PMI) for the service sector in Germany was revised down to 56.0 from 56.4
Almost weekly trading was in a side corridor between the levels 1.3645 - 1.3590. On the one hand bearish trend remains in force since downward channel upper bound 1.3630 has not been broken. And on the other side the five-day consolidation at support level 1.3590 is a good chance to change the current trend model.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.
The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The histogram is close to the zero level.
Trading recommendations
If buyers can break above the resistance level 1.3645, in the longer term we will expect growth to 1.3690, 1.3725 marks.
If the bears take the control over the market we will see the bearish movement continuation towards 1.3500.
Fundamental analysis
The investors continue to look with optimism at the U.S. currency. The EUR/USD lost 0.10% - in spite the fact that it was a short-term oversold the "bulls" could not take control. Even the negative statistics from the U.S. ADP employment and the trade balance did not reassure "bulls" to long. After the ISM services sector positive release there were sales. The total figure came at around 56.3, which is the maximum value over the past 8 months and confirms the U.S. economy strong growth in the second quarter.
The GBP/USD has been showing a "swing" for three consecutive days - "bulls" and "bears" cannot determine the winner. The UK Services PMI in May though was better than the forecast; nonetheless it showed a decrease compared with the previous months that did not give the British currency a strong support. The United States Statistics also failed to show to market participants the direction - two of four important reports came in the negative area and other two in the positive one.
The U.S. stock index S & P500 sets new and new historical high which supports the demand for shares in the Japanese stock markets. In the light of this we were witnessing the USD/JPY pair quotations growth. The states demonstrated mixed newsflow– the reports from ADP and the trade balance went worse then the forecast was while investors were pleased with the services sector ISM. The ISM employment also showed a growth in the second spring month, indicating a possible exit data on Non-Farm slightly better than expected.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The ECB lowered the rates as the result the European currency showed mixed volatility against the dollar and closed the day with losses yesterday, but within the formed range. The frustration on the single currency was provoked and by the weak activity estimate in the service sector and the Eurozone as a whole unit. The managers' index (PMI) for the service sector in Germany was revised down to 56.0 from 56.4
Almost weekly trading was in a side corridor between the levels 1.3645 - 1.3590. On the one hand bearish trend remains in force since downward channel upper bound 1.3630 has not been broken. And on the other side the five-day consolidation at support level 1.3590 is a good chance to change the current trend model.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.
The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.
The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The histogram is close to the zero level.
Trading recommendations
If buyers can break above the resistance level 1.3645, in the longer term we will expect growth to 1.3690, 1.3725 marks.
If the bears take the control over the market we will see the bearish movement continuation towards 1.3500.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The British sterling did not show much volatility yesterday having closed the day at almost opening prices. Obviously, the weak and the strong economic indicators results in both countries maintain the balance and leave low activity on the pair. The data published yesterday a bit supported the sterling as the key economic sphere continued to grow in May.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.
The price is in the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed upward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is in the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is grwoing.
Trading recommendations
From a technical point of view, the British pound may again fall to the support level that was tested the day before yesterday, but had not been broken down.
If sellers can break the support level 1.6730, we should expect the approach to the daily support level 1.6670.
The growth upwards can cancel the downward correction.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The Swiss franc rose slightly against the U.S. dollar having broken the strong resistance 0.9000. The U.S. dollar retained or strengthened against most major currencies after the ECB report.
Most of the regional Fed noted continued growth "rate from modest to moderate", which supports the idea that the Fed in the near future will not change the monetary policy.
In particular we noted an increase in consumer spending, improvement in the manufacturing sector, as well as continued problems in the housing sector. Despite the price pressures restraint, several counties reported an increase in price for certain goods groups, particularly food.
The labor market situation was improved.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We recommend long positions with the first target - 0.9015. After consolidation above the first target, we can buy to the level 0.9040.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The Japanese currency fell against the dollar to new low and finished it with another loss. The dollar/yen was influenced by technical factors that prevented the price to grow above it and triggering a rollback down, as well as events in the U.S. government debt market, where the profitability "Treasuries" growth returned the yen under pressure, and this has helped the dollar to fix eventually benefit.
The interest to the yen rose again and it strengthens the current session against the dollar, which may be the pessimism fault in the "Land of the Rising Sun." stock market.
The strong resistance level retest 102.65 led to the consolidation which in turn is a signal for short-term price down pullback.
The bounce from the resistance level 102.65 may correct the U.S. dollar to the nearest support located at around 102.23.
The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.20.
There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.
The MACD is in a positive area and is descending confirming the current price sentiment.
Trading recommendations
The immediate growth is the resistance level 102.70. If the price breaks it, the way towards 103.20 will be opened.
The pair may continue the downward correction towards 102.23.
General overview
The British sterling did not show much volatility yesterday having closed the day at almost opening prices. Obviously, the weak and the strong economic indicators results in both countries maintain the balance and leave low activity on the pair. The data published yesterday a bit supported the sterling as the key economic sphere continued to grow in May.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.
The price is in the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed upward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is in the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is grwoing.
Trading recommendations
From a technical point of view, the British pound may again fall to the support level that was tested the day before yesterday, but had not been broken down.
If sellers can break the support level 1.6730, we should expect the approach to the daily support level 1.6670.
The growth upwards can cancel the downward correction.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The Swiss franc rose slightly against the U.S. dollar having broken the strong resistance 0.9000. The U.S. dollar retained or strengthened against most major currencies after the ECB report.
Most of the regional Fed noted continued growth "rate from modest to moderate", which supports the idea that the Fed in the near future will not change the monetary policy.
In particular we noted an increase in consumer spending, improvement in the manufacturing sector, as well as continued problems in the housing sector. Despite the price pressures restraint, several counties reported an increase in price for certain goods groups, particularly food.
The labor market situation was improved.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We recommend long positions with the first target - 0.9015. After consolidation above the first target, we can buy to the level 0.9040.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The Japanese currency fell against the dollar to new low and finished it with another loss. The dollar/yen was influenced by technical factors that prevented the price to grow above it and triggering a rollback down, as well as events in the U.S. government debt market, where the profitability "Treasuries" growth returned the yen under pressure, and this has helped the dollar to fix eventually benefit.
The interest to the yen rose again and it strengthens the current session against the dollar, which may be the pessimism fault in the "Land of the Rising Sun." stock market.
The strong resistance level retest 102.65 led to the consolidation which in turn is a signal for short-term price down pullback.
The bounce from the resistance level 102.65 may correct the U.S. dollar to the nearest support located at around 102.23.
The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.20.
There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.
The MACD is in a positive area and is descending confirming the current price sentiment.
Trading recommendations
The immediate growth is the resistance level 102.70. If the price breaks it, the way towards 103.20 will be opened.
The pair may continue the downward correction towards 102.23.
09.06.2014
Fundamental analysis
As it was expected - the ECB started the monetary - credit policy easing having lowered the interest rate by 0.15% and introducing the negative deposit rate for commercial banks. The monetary regulator first went to such drastic action as low inflation, leaving the other no choice.
During the press conference after the meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the key ECB interest rates would remain at current levels for an extended time period. These measures will contribute to higher inflation 2%. He also left the door open for the new mitigation measures, stating that "if necessary, we will promptly implement further easing."
The initial jobless claims grew by 8 thousand to 312 thousand, while they were expected to grow only up to 310 thousand. The data for the previous week was revised to the downside from 300 thousand to 304 thousand average number applications over the past four weeks fell by 2.25 thousand - from 312.50 to 310.25 thousand. This is the lowest index value since June 2007.
There were announced the Bank of England meeting results – we did not get any surprises, the monetary policy as expected remained unchanged. In the light of this the GBP/USD followed the euro/dollar.
Nikkei 225 futures were under the pressure on long positions profit that cheered "bears" for the going short.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General survey
Awaited event happened - the ECB lowered its key interest rate and was the first one to introduce negative interest rates on the bank deposits. Furthermore, it was stated that the Central Bank resumes lending (LTRO) and it would not sterilize liquidity and preparing operations in quantitative easing. However, all these measures only briefly pressed the single currency, which eventually returned to its original positions and finished the last trading day with the rise against the dollar. Probably the fact that the direct securities buying so far is only ready, and did not begin to be realized, disappointed the market.
For traders, the last day for the euro/dollar turned out to be quite ambiguous. On the background of fundamental data EUR there was strong support level 1.3590 breakthrough. Then the price sharply turned upward with a further resistance level 1.3645 breakdown.
There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is in the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.
The price is finding the first support at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3570. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.
The MACD indicator is in positive territory. The histogram is growing.
Trading recommendations
The short-term consolidation above 1.3645 support level in the long term leads to a continuation of the upward trend. The main growth target is the resistance level 1.3725.
Pound (GBP)
General survey
There was not anything unexpected for the pound last trading day- the Bank of England left its interest rate unchanged at a minimum 0.5%, while the total amount of retained bond purchase program stayed at 375 billion pounds. This is in line with expectations and the market barely reacted to it. Nevertheless, the British pound rose against the dollar on the day, the impulse to buy sterling for the "dollar" was created by ECB decisions mood, but also enhances the view that the BoE will start tightening policy sooner than expected. The published news has indicated that the "boom" in the Britain housing market continues.
The resistances break 1.6765 was accompanied by a strong pound growth against the U.S. dollar. The growth rates fell straight to the downward trend line 1.6820.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.
The price is in the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed upward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is in the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is growing.
Trading recommendations
As long as the trading continues in the descending trend line direction the bearish trend remains relevant. The continued consolidation near the trend can be a good signal for the price bounce down. The potential to the price falling is the next support level 1.6765.
Fundamental analysis
As it was expected - the ECB started the monetary - credit policy easing having lowered the interest rate by 0.15% and introducing the negative deposit rate for commercial banks. The monetary regulator first went to such drastic action as low inflation, leaving the other no choice.
During the press conference after the meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the key ECB interest rates would remain at current levels for an extended time period. These measures will contribute to higher inflation 2%. He also left the door open for the new mitigation measures, stating that "if necessary, we will promptly implement further easing."
The initial jobless claims grew by 8 thousand to 312 thousand, while they were expected to grow only up to 310 thousand. The data for the previous week was revised to the downside from 300 thousand to 304 thousand average number applications over the past four weeks fell by 2.25 thousand - from 312.50 to 310.25 thousand. This is the lowest index value since June 2007.
There were announced the Bank of England meeting results – we did not get any surprises, the monetary policy as expected remained unchanged. In the light of this the GBP/USD followed the euro/dollar.
Nikkei 225 futures were under the pressure on long positions profit that cheered "bears" for the going short.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General survey
Awaited event happened - the ECB lowered its key interest rate and was the first one to introduce negative interest rates on the bank deposits. Furthermore, it was stated that the Central Bank resumes lending (LTRO) and it would not sterilize liquidity and preparing operations in quantitative easing. However, all these measures only briefly pressed the single currency, which eventually returned to its original positions and finished the last trading day with the rise against the dollar. Probably the fact that the direct securities buying so far is only ready, and did not begin to be realized, disappointed the market.
For traders, the last day for the euro/dollar turned out to be quite ambiguous. On the background of fundamental data EUR there was strong support level 1.3590 breakthrough. Then the price sharply turned upward with a further resistance level 1.3645 breakdown.
There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is in the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.
The price is finding the first support at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3570. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.
The MACD indicator is in positive territory. The histogram is growing.
Trading recommendations
The short-term consolidation above 1.3645 support level in the long term leads to a continuation of the upward trend. The main growth target is the resistance level 1.3725.
Pound (GBP)
General survey
There was not anything unexpected for the pound last trading day- the Bank of England left its interest rate unchanged at a minimum 0.5%, while the total amount of retained bond purchase program stayed at 375 billion pounds. This is in line with expectations and the market barely reacted to it. Nevertheless, the British pound rose against the dollar on the day, the impulse to buy sterling for the "dollar" was created by ECB decisions mood, but also enhances the view that the BoE will start tightening policy sooner than expected. The published news has indicated that the "boom" in the Britain housing market continues.
The resistances break 1.6765 was accompanied by a strong pound growth against the U.S. dollar. The growth rates fell straight to the downward trend line 1.6820.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.
The price is in the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed upward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is in the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is growing.
Trading recommendations
As long as the trading continues in the descending trend line direction the bearish trend remains relevant. The continued consolidation near the trend can be a good signal for the price bounce down. The potential to the price falling is the next support level 1.6765.
Yen (JPY)
General survey
The Japanese currency also strengthened against the dollar in yesterday's trading. Technical factors, falling optimism in the country stock market, as well as statements by the BoJ from the yen trading start against the dollar were maintained. The further yen buying was triggered by the events in Europe where the ECB announced its decisions on monetary policy prospects.
High of April - the resistance level 102.30 currently stopped the U.S. dollar corrective decrease against the Japanese yen.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.20.
There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.
The MACD is in a positive area and is descending confirming the current price sentiment.
MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
Sellers approached to the level at high volume, it could lead to the breakthrough 102.30 down in the short term. The potential break target is the upper channel 102.00 lower boundary.
Franc (CHF)
General survey
Frank acts as a «safe haven currency» and the current dollar weakness only helps to strengthen the Swiss currency. The frank rising against the dollar amid the latter weakness after the news resource Wall Street Journal published the Fed John Hilsenrata’s words that the Federal Reserve is actually considering the possibility of further quantitative easing (QE3) in anticipation of speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke before Congress on Thursday.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8920. The resistance is at 0.8950.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a weak and confirmed sell signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
The franc on the foreign exchange market is now advised to consider short positions with the first target - 0.8901. When fixing prices below the first target, a target for sales is encouraged to consider the level 0.8869.
We advise to short with the first target - 0.8901. When the price consolidates below the first target, be advised to consider the level 0.8869 as the next one.
General survey
The Japanese currency also strengthened against the dollar in yesterday's trading. Technical factors, falling optimism in the country stock market, as well as statements by the BoJ from the yen trading start against the dollar were maintained. The further yen buying was triggered by the events in Europe where the ECB announced its decisions on monetary policy prospects.
High of April - the resistance level 102.30 currently stopped the U.S. dollar corrective decrease against the Japanese yen.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.20.
There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.
The MACD is in a positive area and is descending confirming the current price sentiment.
MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
Sellers approached to the level at high volume, it could lead to the breakthrough 102.30 down in the short term. The potential break target is the upper channel 102.00 lower boundary.
Franc (CHF)
General survey
Frank acts as a «safe haven currency» and the current dollar weakness only helps to strengthen the Swiss currency. The frank rising against the dollar amid the latter weakness after the news resource Wall Street Journal published the Fed John Hilsenrata’s words that the Federal Reserve is actually considering the possibility of further quantitative easing (QE3) in anticipation of speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke before Congress on Thursday.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8920. The resistance is at 0.8950.
The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a weak and confirmed sell signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.
MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
The franc on the foreign exchange market is now advised to consider short positions with the first target - 0.8901. When fixing prices below the first target, a target for sales is encouraged to consider the level 0.8869.
We advise to short with the first target - 0.8901. When the price consolidates below the first target, be advised to consider the level 0.8869 as the next one.
11.06.2014
Fundamental analysis
The first half of the week the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against major competitors. The EUR/USD remained under the pressure again – the market participants still do not pay much attention to the single European currency against the ECB easing monetary policy backdrop. The leading French bank Societe Generale published the release which indicates that many financial institutions are forced to sell the euro, as the law does not allow them to hold assets with negative returns. The Eurozone investor confidence index from Sentix fell sharply in June to 8.5 compared with 12.8 in May, against the growth expectations. The employment trend index in the U.S. from the Conference Board rose in May to 118.58 with a downwardly revised 117.32 April value.
The GBP/USD was trading in a narrow range 1during the day. On the background of empty macroeconomic calendar investors were not in hurry to open positions and even the euro/pound decrease had no tangible support to the "cable" against the American rival.
In the battle of "bulls" and "bears" for the USD/JPY a winner still has not been identified. We got the final Japan's GDP for Q1. The index was better than the forecast. However, the Japanese yen strong strengthening has not followed. Final figures for the GDP growth in Japan in the 1st quarter were increased to 1.6% q / q vs. 1.5% initial assessment and 0.2% in the previous quarter. This is the maximum growth of 2.5 years, with the third quarter of 2011.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The euro fell against the dollar and the other majors that probably was caused by the ECB last week influence. It is possible that the market has begun preparations for the upcoming Wednesday when the bank deposits negative interest rate will come into the force.
The buyers failed to continue the upward trend after the price jumped from the strong support level 1.3590 at high volumes. The euro short-term growth has been stopped at the resistance level 1.3670, which was followed by a bounce down.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is below the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.
The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is descending.
Trading recommendations
The current consolidation is a good signal for the downward trend continuation. The potential decrease target is two levels located at 1.3520 and 1.3480.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The British pound spent yesterday's trading decreasing in a narrow price range against the dollar. There were not interesting news and we can only mention the International Monetary Fund report which has shown an increased concern about the UK housing market where there is a strong price growth and as it was indicated this is the typical bubble sign.
The downward trend line and resistance level 1.6835 retest led to the three days consolidation that is on right now.
The trading volumes near the downward trend line 1.6830 formed a divergence indicating the buyers’ power lowering.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.
The price is in the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed upward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is in the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a positive area. The indicator is descending.
Trading recommendations
The trend retest is more likely to lead to the price bounce down to the further downtrend continuation.
The main price reduction targets are the two support levels: 1.6730 and 1.6700.
Fundamental analysis
The first half of the week the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against major competitors. The EUR/USD remained under the pressure again – the market participants still do not pay much attention to the single European currency against the ECB easing monetary policy backdrop. The leading French bank Societe Generale published the release which indicates that many financial institutions are forced to sell the euro, as the law does not allow them to hold assets with negative returns. The Eurozone investor confidence index from Sentix fell sharply in June to 8.5 compared with 12.8 in May, against the growth expectations. The employment trend index in the U.S. from the Conference Board rose in May to 118.58 with a downwardly revised 117.32 April value.
The GBP/USD was trading in a narrow range 1during the day. On the background of empty macroeconomic calendar investors were not in hurry to open positions and even the euro/pound decrease had no tangible support to the "cable" against the American rival.
In the battle of "bulls" and "bears" for the USD/JPY a winner still has not been identified. We got the final Japan's GDP for Q1. The index was better than the forecast. However, the Japanese yen strong strengthening has not followed. Final figures for the GDP growth in Japan in the 1st quarter were increased to 1.6% q / q vs. 1.5% initial assessment and 0.2% in the previous quarter. This is the maximum growth of 2.5 years, with the third quarter of 2011.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The euro fell against the dollar and the other majors that probably was caused by the ECB last week influence. It is possible that the market has begun preparations for the upcoming Wednesday when the bank deposits negative interest rate will come into the force.
The buyers failed to continue the upward trend after the price jumped from the strong support level 1.3590 at high volumes. The euro short-term growth has been stopped at the resistance level 1.3670, which was followed by a bounce down.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is below the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.
The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is descending.
Trading recommendations
The current consolidation is a good signal for the downward trend continuation. The potential decrease target is two levels located at 1.3520 and 1.3480.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The British pound spent yesterday's trading decreasing in a narrow price range against the dollar. There were not interesting news and we can only mention the International Monetary Fund report which has shown an increased concern about the UK housing market where there is a strong price growth and as it was indicated this is the typical bubble sign.
The downward trend line and resistance level 1.6835 retest led to the three days consolidation that is on right now.
The trading volumes near the downward trend line 1.6830 formed a divergence indicating the buyers’ power lowering.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.
The price is in the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed upward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is in the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a positive area. The indicator is descending.
Trading recommendations
The trend retest is more likely to lead to the price bounce down to the further downtrend continuation.
The main price reduction targets are the two support levels: 1.6730 and 1.6700.
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