Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
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Dear forum users!
As you already know, TradeFort company obtained an international license IFSC/60/256/TS/14.

Due to that fact, TradeFort has successfully re-branded and since 29th of June works under a Fort Financial Services brand. We have tried to maximally improve our fundamental and technical analysis of financial markets.

We hope, that you will appreciate the analysis we provide. We are looking forward to hear your comments and suggestions.

Thank you for working with TradeFort and welcome to the international brokerage Fort Financial Services!

Fort Financial Services - Citadel of Trading

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The Euro market is in a narrow range against the liquidity backdrop. From the published macroeconomic statistics we can highlight only the orders volume in the German industry. The index went much worse forecasted medians at - 1.7% on a monthly basis, indicating a decrease in the capacity utilization. This in turn is a negative factor for the European region as Germany is the Eurozone locomotive.

The business activity index in the Germany construction sector in June fell to 15-month low which was due mainly to a fall in new orders. The ECB representative Noyer said that the ECB was ready to take all necessary measures to achieve the inflation level of 2%.

The most important event in the USA will be the last Fed meeting protocols publication on Wednesday.

The sales in the EUR/GBP cross-course support demand for GBP/USD not allowing the "bears" to take a technical correction to the short-term overbought background. After the British currency price drop to around of 1.7030 last week - the "bulls" are back on the market and are willing to open long positions.

The investors took profits in global equity markets after a sharp rise during the week. In this regard as well, we have seen the partial long positions closing on the USD/JPY, which led to a small correction after upside quotations growth for 3 days in a row.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Last week session the euro selling was continued, as the single currency recorded losses against the "greenback", while were less ambitious than the previous day. Obviously, the emotions caused by the U.S. Labor Market report publication already influenced the euro/dollar rates and the ECB M. Draghi statements that the preparations for the quantitative easing is underway launch work now. This may cause the unconventional measures introduction to stimulate the economy and, consequently, influence a prolonged impact on the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is directed downwards.

The MACD indicator is in the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 1.3610. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.3570 that could lead to the south trendline movement.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound continues to show a resistance to all the news coming from the outside market. Last Friday the sterling closed trading on opening prices against the dollar after a multidirectional consolidation in a narrow range. The pound support continued to provide good results for the economy, as evidenced by activity indicators, published on the week. PMI in all economy sectors - manufacturing, construction and services, had recognized that recovery, as new construction recorded a growth spurt.

The British Pound continues to actively grow up, breaking on its way the temporary resistance. At this point, such resistance is represented by the inclined line of 1.7125, above there is an ongoing auction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in the positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations


The potential growth targets are the resistance levels 1.7200, 1.7250.



 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.07.2014

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair is being traded lowering. Obviously, the other day of the U.S. long weekend the short-term investors decided to take profits and even a slight increase in the Nikkei index didn’t push the market to the increase the propensity to take risks. The dollar/yen is likely to grow due to the Central Bank policies polarity of these countries, and also in the "hawkish" statements character from the Fed leaders

The trading is within rectangle levels of 101.30 - 102.70. Another approach to the strong support level of 101.30, which for the six months was knocked the price upwards was fallowed by a bounce.

The price is finding the first support 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.60.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations


The volumes are decreasing not supporting neither northern nor southern movement. If the buyers get to the mark 102.70 at low volumes we expect a consolidation with a further price bounce upwards.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar/franc will consolidate with a tendency to increase. The pair will stay with the support of a positive attitude to the dollar and the market demand for the Swiss currency in the growing euro/franc and declining franc/yen. We expect the June data on unemployment in Switzerland and Swiss National Bank gold reserves.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.8975. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 0.9000.



 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

This week the EUR/USD is within a narrow range 1.3575-1.3608. The industrial production releases in Germany and Spain in May showed a significant decrease that confirms the serious structural problems in the European region. Nevertheless, the euro ignored the weak reports and after a moderate price drop - after the American traders coming we saw a technical rebound.

The 10-year bonds yields fell on Monday from 2.64% to 2.62%. Meanwhile, the employment trends index (ETI) in the U.S. Conference Board's continued the growth in June for the second month in a row and rose to 119.62.

The euro rose slightly after four days decrease amid the growing sentiment among the Eurozone investors, who improved after two months decrease, which was due to the ECB's new measures on the economy stimulation and expectations improving for the global economy.

The short positions closing in the euro/pound cross-course put the pressure on the GBP/USD on a background of the empty macroeconomic calendar from the UK and the U.S.

The sales that were observed on the world's leading stock markets, which together with the decrease in the 10-year U.S. bonds yields weighed on the USD/JPY. There wasn’t any important macroeconomic statistics from Japan and the market participant fully copied the trading dynamics for the Japanese stock market.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The single European currency grew slightly against the dollar and actually leveled losses it had last week. The weak economic data from Germany did not stop the euro bulls and as well as the ECB members statements signaling the need to increase the monetary policy easing.

Almost a month the EUR/USD bounces from the level of 1.3595. This level was broken down once, but the breakthrough had not been continued for long. The reverse return above the price level was followed by a strong growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The downtrend is being continued. The target is 1.3570.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound is stable and continues to stay near the high levels that had been reached earlier. The pound fell slightly the other day, but it is due to technical factors that continue to influence the market developments through the strong resistance.

The upward trend was stopped at the resistance level of 1.7175, from which there was a short-term price down pullback. The main rollback target is the support level of 1.7115, which was twice tested for a strength.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The rising trend line is at 1.7115 support that is an additional obstacle.

If the breakthrough does happen the level of 1.7175 rebound is expected. The 1.7175 break will open the way to 1.7200, 1.7250.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen grew up. Obviously, the fact that traders chose the yen was due to an optimism fall on stock markets, as well as due to the U.S. "Treasuries" yield decrease. We remember the BoJ quarterly report, which announced a moderate economic recovery pace and conservation assessment for the all nine country regions.

The price is finding the first support 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The price consolidation at 101.60 is a good sign for the price upward rebound. The main target is the level of 101.23.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc has not changed significantly against the U.S. dollar and strengthened against the major currencies last week after the unexpectedly strong labor market data. The dollar slightly regained its position against the franc after the pair decreased to the level of 0.8860.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise long positions. The goal is 0.8975. After overcoming the first target buyers can go to the level of 0.9000.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

This week main event was the Fed last meeting minutes publication. Before the Fed minutes publication the major pairs were in a lateral trend – the investors took a waiting position. The market participants wondered what the inflation debate will bring which had shown a slightly growth above the target level in the last report. However, the FOMC members could not find a single direction on the priority issue - one part of the monetary regulator leadership expressed concern with a stable low inflation, the other on the contrary, expect a more rapid consumer price index growth.

Against this background, we observed the U.S. currency sales against its major competitors, the gold quotations growth and the "bullish" sentiment in the stock markets.

The data showed an unexpected decrease in the UK industrial manufacturing and the industrial production and hinted that the economic recovery may not be as strong as expected. The reports made investors get rid of sterling to lock in profits after the currency rose to six-year high level against the U.S. dollar at the end of last week.

The quotes received impetus from the Japan data published during the Asian session.

The positive Japan payments balance in May amounted to 552.8 billion yen after the April value of 187.4 billion yen, despite the fact that the growth was forecasted only to 170 billion Japanese yen. Some support was rendered by the Eco Watchers data: the optimism index regarding the current economic situation in Japan was in June $ 47.7 against $ 45.5 in May, which can generally be seen as a positive signal.





 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.07.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The important economic data from Europe and other regions absence, as well as minutes of U.S. meetings yield expectations caused the continued range trading on the euro/dollar. The hopes that the activity will return to the market amid the politicians speeches have not been justified - neither speech the ECB’s President Draghi nor his colleagues, members of the ECB Governing Board B. Kerr and P. Pratt did not change the situation. The ECB functionary's statements concerned largely the power centralization topics in the region and its authority strengthening to force EU governments to reform their economies to recovery.

The situation has been changed after the FOMC minutes publication - the euro rose as it became known that the document did not have anything about a possible rate increase.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form the “Golden cross”.

The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

If the price consolidates above 1.3610 the next target will be the resistance located at 1.3670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound strengthened against the dollar in yesterday's trading. The effect on the sterling as well as on the euro had a message from the Fed. During the session the pound was under pressure from the dollar. The pound sales were provoked by the housing prices data from Halifax which showed that the price index fell by 0.6% m/m in June after rising +4.0% m/m previously and Britain Retail Consortium (BRC) report announced the annual fall indicator retail prices continuation which coupled with the price dynamics in the housing market has contributed to the doubt mood, waiting the rate hikes in the UK.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span.

The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.

The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The sterling growth gave the buyers the opportunity to get closer to the last week maximum the resistance of 1.7160. The volumes around this level decline, however, due to the fundamental data, the northern trend is likely to continue.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency was under the general market sentiment pressure. Initially, the yen declined against the dollar, on the risks of a monetary policy possible imminent tightening in the U.S., and then grew when the Fed protocols disappointed "bulls" on the dollar and sharply reduced the U.S. "Treasuries" yields. As a result, the dollar/yen trading was closed almost on the opening prices.

The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price shows a downward movement.

Trading recommendations

The yen strengthening against the greenback is expected in the short term, lowering the price to 101.00 - 101.20.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar on the U.S. currency general weakening, caused by the FOMC minutes publication. The document, in particular, noted that, if the current trends is preserved the economy the FOMC representatives would decide to finish the asset purchases program in October.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We advise to open short positions with the target 0. 8880. This level overcoming will enable sellers to target the level of 0.8850.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

We could see the multidirectional majors movement the other day. The negative ZEW business climate release in Germany coupled with euro/pound cross-course sales cheered the "bears" to open the short positions on the EUR/USD.

The ZEW index fell to 27.1 points in July, showing the lowest level since December 2012. If the investors and analysts look pessimistic at the eurozone's leading economy it means that the region problems are really strong. In the U.S. trading session midst Fed head held the speech in Congress. Janet Yellen still adheres to the loose monetary policy assuring market participants that the inflation rise in the recent months should not be regarded as the uptrend beginning. The investors expected such comments so the pair started selling fast due to Ms. Yellen performance.

The GBP/USD was able to breakthrough the two-week range due to the June CPI index positive release. The June UK inflation showed growth to the level of 1.9% year on year, which triggered the "bulls rally" on the British currency. The inflationary pressures intensified the market participants' expectations on the earlier BoE monetary - credit policy tightening amid the pound significantly strengthened its position in relation to the dollar.

The BoJ head Mr. Kuroda speaking at a press-conference after a meeting on monetary - credit policy said he expected the economic growth return to the positive territory in the 3rd quarter. It was also indicated that the price current growth seemed to be well balanced and there is no reason for a strong dollar strengthening now. After Fed head statements completion we saw the increase in the U.S. 10 - year Treasuries yield, which also supported the moderate demand for the U.S. dollar.





 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.07.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The euro/dollar remained under the pressure. The euro disorder was provoked by the ZEW disappointing data. The Euro sales were carried out amid the Fed reports. The brief euro buying against the dollar was observed when the retail sales release went significantly worse forecasted medians. In fact, the ZEW Report pointed to the Germany investor confidence drop in July for seventh consecutive month.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.3520 breakthrough the way to the support 1.3480 will be opened. Meanwhile we expect a consolidation and a short term bounce upwards.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

Technically, the British returned to the market leaders and became one of the majors on the yesterday's session having made some profit against the dollar. The sterling found support from the newly arrived UK economic data. The economic statistics publication announced the UK inflation accelerating and added the belief to investors that the BoE would be forced to raise rates before the end of this year

The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.

There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.7160 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.7220.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese currency also fell against the dollar. However, it is worth noting that the yen sales were not as active as they could be in this situation, when the Japan stock market experienced growth and the Fed chief's statements positioned investor optimism on the dollar. Perhaps the reason is the stock market good sentiment lack and resumed U.S. government bond yields falling. In addition, the BoJ decisions could form the pair’s pessimism.

The price is finding the first support 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, and the Kijun-sen – horizontal and form a “Golden cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 102.23.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The dollar strengthened after Ms. Yellen said that interest rates would rise sooner if the situation on the labor market improves faster than expected. Nevertheless, the Fed chairman also said that if the economic recovery would be disappointing, the monetary policy would remain accommodative.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.9035.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9000. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can start deals to the level of 0.9035.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The U.S. currency was able to significantly strengthen its position relative to its main competitors. The EUR/USD was able to hit a new minimum for at least the past five months amid the negative macroeconomic data from the euro area balance of payments in May. The balance of payments current account surplus declined by 2.1 billion euro to 19.5 billion in May. The Institute of Michigan published the USA consumer confidence index in July which could not support the strong demand for the dollar as the data release came out worse than the forecasted median.

The GBP/USD has remained under the pressure amid the institutional investors’ further profit on long positions. We did not receive any important macroeconomic statistics from the UK. But then, after the moderately negative the Michigan Institute report on consumer confidence "bulls" returned to the market and the British currency was able to recover some lost ground.

In Asian trading the USD/JPY dropped, after which there was a technical rebound against the demand from Japanese exporters, as well as the world's leading stock exchanges growth. However, we have not seen strong quotations growth that confirms the strong factor of the investors in the U.S. currency interest absence.




 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.07.2014


Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

Overview

The initial European currency reduction was caused by the continued caution amid the geopolitics background as well as the increasing concerns about the euro zone financial system health due to the problems in the Portuguese banking group Espirito Santo that is based on some hearings on the bankruptcy brink.

The euro fall can be continued, of course, if not something extraordinary happens. However, at the moment, the technical factor is on the euro’s side as the euro/dollar fell to an annual minimum which can be given as a strong support.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward one. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong support 1.3520. We expect the growth.



Pound (GBP)

Overview

Obviously, the reason for the sales drop was a sterling risk appetite against the backdrop of the geopolitical upheaval. The British currency is still the most profitable among the other majors in the current situation and it was the investors’ natural desire to reduce risk positions.

The false retest of the resistance level of 1.7115 led to the formation of a price’s short-term pullback down. The British pound short-term pullback against the U.S. dollar has not appeared long.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7050, the next one is at 1.7000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7160.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.7050 may lead to a price rebound up. The potential rebound target is the level of resistance 1.7160.



Yen (JPY)


Overview


The Japanese currency declined against the dollar and returned most of the positions won in the previous session, when it was reported about the hit airliner on the border between Russia and Ukraine. It is possible that one of the moments that were supporting the dollar was the fact of the Japanese importers buying at attractive levels for this to which the pair dropped and the others - the profitability States’ "Treasuries" renewed growth.

More than six months, the dollar/yen has been fixing above the strong support level of 101.00.

The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the upward trend line 102.23.



Franc (CHF)

Overview


The Franc fell against the dollar after the euro. The dollar strengthened after The Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen indicated last week that the interest rates may be risen sooner, if the economy continues to recover.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.9035.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9000. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9030.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs held the narrow ranges against the backdrop of an empty macroeconomic calendar at the trading week beginning. All the week important events are still ahead so the market participants took a wait. The EUR/USD consolidated near the support level of 1.3512, which indicates a positions set by the institutional investors before a further bearish trend.

The national activity index, calculated by the Chicago Fed, attracts the market participants’ interest. However, it doesn’t provide the events course influence. So this time, the index growth slowing in June to 0.12 against 0.16 in May and 0.18 forecast did not impact the investor sentiment.

The German PPI slowed the fall and issued in June -0.7% y/y after -0.8% y/y. The Italian industrial orders collapsed in May by 2.5% y/y growth in April to 6.2% y/y. The monthly report announced the German economy problems as the Bundesbank pointed to a stop in GDP growth in the 2nd quarter.

The British pound has tested the support level of 1.7058, the bulls managed to repel the attack, which confirms our view that the market participants will buy the strong GBP/USD decrease, based on the medium-term uptrend continuation.

After the quotes dropped to the level of 101.06 - the Japanese exporters came to the market which opened the long positions opposing the national currency strengthening.




Euro (EUR)

Overview

The Euro remains under the external events influence, and the given fact that the news background isn’t different in the "killed" information content in the other regions, we can assume the range trading continuation. The EUR/USD consolidated above the strong support level of 1.3520. Then the pair fell to the level of 1.3480 and tested it.

The price is finding the support at 1.3450. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect another retest which will be followed by the price bounce upwards. The potential bounce targets are 1.3520, 1.3570.

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Pound (GBP)

Overview

The general market sentiment spreads its influence on the pound/dollar which closed the trading close to the opening prices against the dollar after the consolidation in a narrow side corridor.

We suppose to see the public sector borrowing continued growth in June to 10.5 billion, after 13.3 billion pounds previously. The large loans and the lower orders could add some pressure to the pound in the current circumstances, in the absence of any support risk appetite with the reason for caution in the increasing geopolitical exacerbations view. The GBP/USD downward trend was stopped at the support level of 1.7050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7050, the next one is at 1.7000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7160.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The third level retest can cause the price bounce to the range of 1.7100 - 1.7110.



 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.07.2014

Fundamental analysis


Yen (JPY)

Overview

The Japanese yen is not an exception like the euro it is traded in a narrow range and closed the day with small losses against the dollar.

The statistics has published the activity data - the activity index rose in May by 0.6% m/m vs. -4.6% m/m previously in all economy sectors, but this fact had no impact on the market - the yen fell slightly against the dollar.

The stock market and the U.S. market government bonds as usually influence the pair. The USD/JPY corrective gains fell to the downward trend line 101.60.

The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The volumes which gave the pair a chance to go up to the 101.60 trendline have formed a divergence. The level of 101.60 breakthrough, where the trading is being continued now, opens the way to the level of 102.23.



Franc (CHF)

Overview

The U.S. dollar maintained its position against the franc. We didn’t observe the significant changes in the absence of the catalysts in the important economic data trading form. The investors are still very concerned about the geopolitical events in the recent times.

Technically, the USD/CHF stabilized after the reaching the area 0.8990. The resistance at 0.9000 was broken.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.8950. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9035.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise the long positions with the first target - 0.9035.



 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar continued to strengthen against its major rivals. The DXY dollar index finished trading at around 80.78. The pair EUR/USD was bearish against the positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States publication. The June inflation showed a growth to the level of 2.1% year on year and it shows the growth to the Fed target level for three months in a row. This release only inflames the debates on the earlier interest rates increase by the FOMC which will support the dollar.

The GBP/USD will be under the pressure and the only thing that can cheer up the "bulls" is the strong report from the CBI industrial orders in July. However, this release came out much worse than consensus-forecast and after the USA inflation data we can see the pound sales. Only the pair cross-course restrained the "bears" pressure and did not allow the pound to test the psychological level of 1.7000.

The positive macroeconomic statistics on the inflation and the real estate market in the United States in conjunction with the price increase on the world markets stocks maintained the USD/JPY demand. However, after the European foreign exchange market participant's departure the bullish enthusiasm began to fade as we observed profit-taking on the long positions.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The euro was the most vulnerable instrument and fell. The euro was pressured by the mood prevailing on the further easing expectations in the ECB policy and the understanding that the European economy is exposed to the greater risks due to the events in Ukraine.

The sellers have not stopped at the support level of 1.3520. The price’s continued consolidation has led to the downward trend continuation. Besides the trading volumes actively support the euro decrease against the U.S. dollar.

The price is finding the support at 1.3420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendation

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.3420 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The pound left a narrow. Obviously, the market wasn’t in a hurry to take a decision on the pair, expecting information from the BoE last meeting minutes which can show - the power balance change among the Monetary Committee members on the policy tightening issue.

The third retest of the support level of 1.7050 for the past three days shows the sellers’ great interest to continue the downward trend. However, the upward trend is still relevant due to the fact that the retest was followed by permanent bounces up.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.6950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7050, the next one is at 1.7115.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is going down.

Trading recommendation

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.7115.



 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese yen like the sterling, recorded a small loss against the dollar. The yen decrease in the Asian session amid the Japan rising stock market wasn’t performed well due to the same geopolitical tensions and the renewed U.S. "Treasuries" profitability fall.

The resistance level of 101.60 retest was followed by the volume, but the buyers are not able to continue the dollar strengthening against the yen.

The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendation

The upward bounce potential target is the level of 101.60. The pair can consolidate in the area of 101.20 – 101.00.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The dollar rose against the Swiss franc. The U.S. currency held the near six-week high against the other major currencies basket after the data showed that the U.S. consumer price inflation rose in June, broadly in line with expectations.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.8950. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9035, the next one at 0.9060.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendation

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9035. After the trend line 0.9035 breakthrough up the way to the level of 0.9060 will be opened.



 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD consolidates near the strong resistance level of 1.3476. The Markit Economics published the manufacturing sector PMI in France and Germany. The reports showed the mixed trend. The France figure has been decreasing for four consecutive months, indicating the structural problems presence. The Germany release was better than the forecasted medians signaled to the market that the Germans will pull the whole Eurozone economy. The neutral background and the short oversold euro/dollar pushed "bears" to feel comfortable to take profits on the short positions.

The UK retail sales release went on 0.1% below the consensus forecast, but it was enough to the "bears" to disperse the GBP/USD below the 70th figure. The wages reduction has a strong negative impact on a consumer confidence in the short term developing the negative impact on the inflation. Apparently, the market participants are already tired of the pound high rate and begin to open the short positions in the first successful opportunities.

The Japan and the United States stock markets continue to enjoy a support from the investors which increases the demand for the USD/JPY. Even the negative macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. new buildings sales could not spoil the "bulls" mood - the primary market sales in June fell by 8.1%. But it is difficult to judge the U.S. consumer confidence weakness strength on the one negative report.




 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.07.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

Overview

The single European currency has shown a resistance to pressure from the dollar and could strengthen against its other major opponents. On the week the euro gave the growth to the pound and the yen, but closed almost at the opening prices with greenback. The grown up interest in the single currency was due to an unexpectedly strong data on the activity in the Eurozone economy and its leading countries.

The last week trading on the euro/dollar went below the intermediate resistance level 1.3480. The short-term level break which occurred was false. The price returned beyond the level, continuing to trade in the direction of the downward trend.

The price is finding the support at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.3480 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.3360.



Pound (GBP)

Overview

The British pound was a less attractive asset and having continued its decrease against the dollar and other majors last week. The negative sentiment was caused by the BoE minutes and the UK retail sales in June.

The pound has been in the downward trend for more than one week. The strong support level of 1.7000 breakthrough in the long term opened the way to the level of 1.6950 which has not been worked out yet.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6950, the next one is at 1.6900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.7050.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 101.60 testing soon. The potential decrease target is the level of support 1.6900.



Yen (JPY)

Overview

The yen also fell against the dollar last week. The yen strengthening amid the Japanese stock market fall in the Asian session was interrupted on the European session. The dollars buying impulse for the yen was given by the U.S. economic data indicated the labor market good trend and the renewed decrease in the U.S. "Treasuries" yields.

The break of 101.60 resistance enabled the buyers to revise the dollar upward to the next level, located at around of 102.23.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The up ward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.

Trading recommendations

Currently, the price is trading above the resistance level 101.60 which has already become the support. The approach to 102.23 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the level of support 101.60, 101.00.



Franc (CHF)

Overview

The U.S. dollar maintained its position against the franc. The dollar gained a support after the data published last week and showed that the initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to the lowest level in more than eight years on last week.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9035, the next one is at 0.9000. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9060. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9090.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar has completed a steady growth against its major rivals. The dollar index DXY basket closed at 81.04. The EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the negative macroeconomic statistics from the IFO institute. The July business climate indicator in Germany fell to the level of 108 which is the lowest for the last 8 months. The U.S. States presented a pleasant surprise to the traders - durable goods order volume data exceeded the forecasted medians which confirms the steady upward economy trend.

The "Bearish" sentiment prevailed on the GBP/USD. The UK GDP release came out at the consensus forecast of 0.8% which was not able to support the demand for the pound. The investors expect a faster growth in the second quarter and as this has not happened - the "bulls" had to stay away from long positions opening. The euro/pound cross-course decrease held the bears’ attacks.

The USD/JPY has ended the trading day within a narrow flat. Japan published the inflation data which went on 0.1% better than forecasted median. The oil price rise in June would not let loose the consumer price index. Nevertheless, the Japanese currency has ignored this release and we saw the pair’s symbolic fall.




 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.07.2014


Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

Overview

The euro was quietly traded on the low having reached earlier. The euro sales impulse was given by the German IFO institute release which had shown a decrease concerning the trust in business.

The support level of 1.3480 was broken down at lower volumes. The level breakthrough was followed by the price fixing. We expect the downward trend to be continued.

At this time trades come in the narrow descending channel direction.

The price is finding the support at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendation

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.3360.



Pound (GBP)

Overview

The British pound was traded in a narrow sideways range against the dollar and ended the day slightly lower, almost at the opening prices. Obviously, the unsatisfactory UK retail sales results in June, presented last Thursday, continued to put pressure on the sterling and as the technical factors caused the strong support for the GBP/USD supported the impulse.

The British pound has been actively decreasing against the U.S. dollar for the last two weeks. The price fall touched the strong support level of 1.7000, approached at lower volumes which means the downward trend softening.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6950, the next one is at 1.6900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.7050.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendation

After the trend line 1.6950 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6900 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

Overview

The Japanese yen was under pressure from the dollar. The Japan stock market optimism which raised the Nikkei on 1.13% supported the pair, but the final result was less impressive - the pair fell and closed the trading day with only a slight increase.

The last week short-break turned out to be a false one. The buyers managed to lift the price above of 101.60 once again

The U.S. dollar corrective strength against the Japanese yen was met by the downward linear trend 102.23. The trend line is quite strong, it has been touched three times and has never been broken.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show ahorizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendation

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 101.00 soon.



Franc (CHF)

Overview

The Franc fell significantly against the dollar strengthening. The dollar index rose to almost one-month high amid the U.S. economic recovery signs

The price is finding the first support at 0.9035, the next one is at 0.9000. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendation

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9060. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9090.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs held another session in a narrow range and ended the trading day a bit below their opening. The investors’ inactivity was understandable, due to the news absence that could push volatility to a growth; moreover, the market went into the week waiting period of important events, such as the FOMC meeting minutes, GDP data for the U.S. and the July world's largest economy labor report. This caused a weak trading between predetermined ranges. The news across the United States could not make the investors happy yesterday and their mixed results did not cause any severe reactions which could become the balancing effect result.

The pending home sales release in the secondary market fell in June, with -1.1% m/m due to the expected growth of 0.5% m/m, while the Dallas Fed report issued the opposite trend - PMI in July improved to 12.7 vs. 11.4 earlier.

Japan continued to demonstrate inflation growth in June which was shown by the official data. The price increase largely contributed to the increasing sales tax rates, conducted in April which should help the Japanese authorities to reduce the state budget deficit.

The indicator value was at 3.4% in May. The Tokyo consumer prices rose on 2.8%, slightly higher than the forecast made by Reuters. The observed increase in price is largely due to the sales tax rate increase to 8%, conducted in April.




 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
448
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.07.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The Euro stayed almost unchanged against the U.S. dollar and ended the session a bit below it had started the day. Obviously, the negative sentiment is caused by the additional easing expectations from the ECB that still fly in the area. The Eurozone did not release any significant news. We can mention only the Italy manufacturing sector confidence index in which fell to 99.7 in July against 99.9 in June, and made no impression on investors.

The euro has been dropping down for the fifth week. The short-term consolidation development was replaced by the continuing downward trend which in its turn wasn’t supported by the trade volumes.

The price is finding the support at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The short-term consolidation below the resistance level of 1.3420 can be followed by the price bounce down. The potential target is the mark of 1.3360.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The UK news vacuum and the news expectations from the United States impacted the GBP/USD during the trading day. The sterling did not change the range which had been formed in previous sessions. The pound most likely will continue to "drift" against the dollar due to the U.S. news expectations.

The sellers could update the last week minimum 1.6950 to continue the downward trend. The side corridor formed within the daily chart on the levels of 1.7000 – 1.6960 was broken.

The price is finding the support at 1.6900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6950, the next one is at 1.7000.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is going down.

Trading recommendations

The main price target is the support level of 1.6900.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese currency was no exception and also like other majors started to move against the dollar. The stock market activity and the U.S. debt market government gave some strength to keep growing. Moreover the pair got some drive from the traders’ expectations regarding the USA important events that upcoming this week.

The break higher the strong support level of 101.60 was the signal for the rising trend continuation. The bounce from 101.60 level has led to the 102.23 downward trend line breakout.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.

Trading recommendations

Despite the fact that the news had virtually no impact on volumes the 102.23 descending trend line breakout up in further perspective opens the way to the resistance level of 102.70.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The U.S. dollar is strengthening its position against the franc in FOMC next meeting anticipation. The pair is close to the support area at 0.9060 which was the last time tested on the last fall. The Fed meeting records and the July employment report may support the U.S. currency may.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to open long positions with the first target - 0.9090. Once we break above this level we think that the level of 0.9130 will be the next one.