TradeFort - Fundamental and technical analysis

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency continues to be influenced by the U.S. government bonds market. The multidirectional fluctuations at yesterday's trading ended on the opening prices – The Japan's GDP for the 1st quarter little supported the yen, but its return under the pressure was caused the U.S. "Treasuries" yield increase

The U.S. dollar decrease against the Japanese yen was to a lower uplink bounce which is located at the strong support level 102.30

The approach to 102.30 occurred at low volumes which gives an additional reason for the price to bounce up. It is likely that the short-term consolidation will be formed at such a strong level.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.20.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.

The MACD is in a positive area and is descending confirming the current sentiment.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 102.60, 102.75. If the price falls it will get to 102.23.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The industrial production growth rate increased in the first quarter, according to preliminary figures released by the Federal Statistical Office. The industrial production growth in the first quarter was 0.5% compared with the first quarter last year. The current data also exceeded the fourth quarter results when there was a growth 0.3%. We can highlight the increase in turnover of 0.1% which compensates the last quarter reduction, fixed at 0.1%. The YoY significant growth (4.3%) showed new orders, after decreasing by 0.5% in the fourth quarter.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.

The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, we have a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.8950. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.8920.

 

[Valdis]

16.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

The single currency has slowed its decrease against the U.S. counterpart. The EUR/USD lost symbolic 0.1% yesterday. In the absence of important macroeconomic statistics from the EU and the U.S. – that’s why traders did not hurry to open positions.

The UK April positive unemployment report has supported the demand for the GBP/USD. The index went slightly better than the forecasts at 6.6%. The Average Earnings Index in April showed a value 0.7%, the lowest level since March 2013. This factor is negative for the inflation growth and the UK inflation is below the target level 2% now.

The USD/JPY traders received the first "wake-up call" from Japan - the BSI for large manufacturers in the second quarter showed a decrease to the level -13.9, which is the lowest in the last 11 quarters. This negative release casts doubt optimistic statements by the Bank of Japan about the prospects for economic growth. Against this backdrop, there were sales on the stock exchange in Tokyo, which in turn put pressured the pair.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The pair could get out of the low and then returned above its last trading range. The weak statistical data from the U.S. was the reason for this; therefore, we expect no less important news from the United States today to close the trading day with some volatility. The retail sales in the United States disappointed players. It is worth mentioning that this does not support the American economy, which depends on consumers.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480 . The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect a decrease to the level 1.3480. The next growth wave can start after that. The growth wave target is the level 1.3670 breakdown.

Pound (GBP)

The GBPUSD has quite moderately grown over trading Friday, whereupon made a sharp rise at the end of the day after the Central Bank of England Mark Carney statements who reported that interest rates in the UK can be increased even earlier than that expected by the market. Naturally such a statement has caused a sharp rise in a quotes pair, because the market has played out its expectations and perhaps at this stage it is not over.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6940, the next one is at 1.6860. The price is finding the resistance at 1.7000.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair continues its growth wave. We not exclude 1.7025 level testing. We believe the price to continue decrease to the target 1.6655.

Yen (JPY)

On the eve the yen managed to preserve its achievements against the U.S. dollar and the euro as a result of the Central Bank of Japan statement.

The Bank of Japan again repeated its commitment to direct a steady increase in the size of its own program for the assets purchase, but kept the fund's assets total number without any changes at the level 70 trillion yen (almost $ 879 billion).

Also, the Central Bank of Japan expanded its bond buyback, starting with $ 40 trillion yen up to 45 trillion yen (almost $ 564 billion) although at the same time reduced the lending program, starting with the 30 trillion yen up to 25 trillion yen.

It should be noted that the Central Bank of Japan, using an anonymous vote, left the previously established interest rate without any changes in the range of 0-0.1 percent, and also reported on the outlook for moderate growth in the economy, even with the global environment uncertainty high degree.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair continues to sell to the level 102.23 (minimum). Next, we expect the continued decrease development. The next goal is the level around 100.50.

 

[Valdis]

20.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

This week main event was the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting announcement. The regulator as it was expected earlier decided to taper the QE-3 incentive program further having cut $10 billion more from July 1.

The guidelines on the monetary-credit policy tighten remained unchanged - the federal funds rate growth will not happen before 2015. The only one of 16 leaders suggested that the Fed could raise the interest rates in the late 2014. The Reducing unemployment and the moderate inflation were positively received by the FOMC members in recent months.

The only thing that upset the "bulls" was the current year economic growth forecast decrease while the 2015 and 2016 forecasts remained unchanged. The Chairman Yellen said that "the Fed intends to keep rates near zero for a long time after the bond buying completion."

The pound fell after the Bank of England last meeting minute’s publication, but then leveled all the losses. The minutes signaled about the possible, but unlikely rates increase in 2014.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European currency rose slightly against the dollar. There was no news from the Eurozone still the information expectations from the Fed kept the single currency in a narrow range during the Asian and European sessions. The impulse to small-volume euro buying was given by the American Central Bank messages, which does not set the market on the dollar credibility. The news statements of the possible monetary policy easing extension for the Eurozone for the low inflation battle can reduce the interest to the single currency which continued to strengthen against the dollar.

The downward trend was stopped at the support level 1.3520. The continuous price consolidation at 1.3520 became a good signal for a trend change and a short-term growth to the strong resistance level 1.3610 region.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The U.S. dollar general correlation is aimed at lowering that gives additional reasons for the rising trend continuation.

The buyers need to break above 1.3610 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.3670 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK market's reaction after the Fed minutes publication was similar to the one at other basic tools - the pound slightly rose against the dollar after multidirectional movements. However, the increased volatility even in the European session happened because of the last BoE meeting published protocols.

The British pound broke the 1.7000 strong resistance the second time. If the first retest happened at the lower volumes, the second one occurred at the strong ones.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.6940. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7040, the next one is at 1.7080.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations

Currently, the price is trading above the resistance level 1.7000 which has already become the support.

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.7050, 1.7100.

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The traders did not like the Fed data. The dollar returned under the pressure and recorded losses on the day. The sharp the U.S. "Treasuries" yield falling pushed investors to the dollar selling, which rose and returned all the previous session losses on the meeting outcome of the American Central Bank.

The bounce from the resistance level 102.30 was accompanied with the U.S. dollar decrease against the Japanese yen to 101.85 uptrend line. The sellers approached the trendline on the strong volumes which in the long term can lead to a breakthrough and a downward trend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a non-confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 101.85 breakthrough down the way to the support 101.50 will be opened.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The market worsening attitude to the dollar and the demand for the Swiss currency in the growing franc/yen will add pressure on the USD/CHF. The economic sentiment index fell in Switzerland according to ZEW-Credit Suisse to 4.8 in June from 7.4 in May had the negative impact on the market sentiment against the Swiss franc

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.900.

The price is under the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed sell signal.
The downward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

Trading recommendations

We recommend the short positions with the first target - 0.8920. When the price consolidates below the first target it will go to the level 0.8880.

 

[Valdis]

23.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

The other day we saw the U.S. currency weakening against its major rivals again, as the DXY dollar index basket finished the trading day at around 80.32. The EUR/USD in the first half of the day got stronger against the U.S. Federal Reserve decision to not change the monetary - credit policy in early 2015. At the moment the price reached the level 1.3643 and then the US positive static and Initial Jobless Claims publication investors closed long positions. The Initial Jobless Claims came out slightly better than the median forecast.

The British pound shows volatility- despite the negative macroeconomic statistics on the retail sales in May the GBP/USD has set a fresh high for the past 5 years. The Fed decision to keep the rates at low levels for a long time after the QE-3 program is over outweighed all the negative factors and during the day we could see the pound steady growth against the U.S. counterpart.

Despite the stock markets growth - the "bulls" did not hurry to open long positions in the USD/JPY. The demand for the pair returned only after the price drop to around 101.73 and we could observe it in the 102 figure recovery area. Certainly, The FOMC spoiled the dollar "sentiment", which wasn’t in a hurry to strengthen against the Japanese currency.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

At the beginning of Thursday's euro continued the growth against the U.S. dollar in the light of the latest news from the Fed which disappointed investors who expected a more firm attitude regarding the monetary policy. However, towards the end of the day, the single currency lost some positions in the light of the U.S. economy good statistics. The loss could be provoked by the ECB's statements about the Institute readiness together with other major Central Banks to start, if necessary, the assets purchase in order to avoid the low inflation long period.

The strong resistance level breakthrough 1.3600 led to the euro strengthening against the U.S. dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations

It is likely to expect the downward trend formation in the longer term from the down channel resistance 1.3635.

The bounce from 1.3635 will allow sellers to return to the strong support level 1.3600. The break of this level will open the way down to 1.3520.

Pound *(GBP)

General overview

The British pound continued its upward march against the U.S. dollar and reached its highest level since 2008. The pound support continues to come from the view that the BoE will be the first Central Bank, which will raise rates. Statements by "Old Lady" representatives about the need to begin to tighten the policy were softer than expected, the difference between the Fed position and the BoE supports the sterling.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7040, the next one is at 1.7000. The price is finding the resistance at 1.7080.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The nearest target of the correctional wave will is the support level 1.7000, or rising trendline 1.6980 - 1.6990. The retest is more likely to be accompanied by the consolidation. We expect the upward trend continuation.

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency traded against the dollar in a sideways range and closed at opening price. At the beginning of the last session the yen strengthened amid the traders’ displeasure with the Fed position, and it fell by the session end, obviously because of the positive emotions caused by the U.S. economic statistics presented at the American session.

Throughout the last trading week the sellers failed to break below 101.75 support level above which it continues the trading in the real time.

The price went up to the level 101.75 at the lower volumes, but there is a breakthrough rising trend line 101.90.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The false support level 101.75 retest can correct the price upwards in the short term. The potential correction target is the mark 102.00

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss National Bank, as analysts predicted, kept interest rates unchanged and is "ready to buy unlimited amount of foreign currency" if necessary. Thus, the Central Bank has confirmed its intention to continue to support the low interest rates policy, as well as limit the Swiss franc growth

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

The price is under the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, that’s a weak and confirmed sell signal.

The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The break below 0.8908 would target the pair to the support area 0.8882/96.

 

[Valdis]

24.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD was moderately decreased after the long positions had been closed. The bearish sentiment prevailed amid the lack of the news. The Eurozone consumer confidence in June came out worse than the forecast was which only confirms the negative trends in the region economy.

This week we expect the pair to grow further as it has all conditions for it.

The pound is still supported by the BoE rate growth expectations. Traders believe it will happen much earlier than the Federal Reserve plans.

The BoJ said that the monetary authorities were ready to change the policy without hesitation if any risk appears. This statement is confirmed by the fact that despite all the positive comments about the prospects for economic growth - The Central Bank is still concerned about the sales tax increasing which took place on April 1. In the light of this the negative reports will support the USD/JPY in the future. The world's leading stock market closed the trading week with a steady growth in a price which supported the demand for the pair last Friday.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has strengthened against the greenback. The impulse for buying euro was received by the U.S. central bank after its meeting results that had upset the "bulls" with the lack of any inflexibility. However, euro was again under pressure, probably in addition to technical factors it can be explained by the lack of a confidence in the sustainable single currency after the ECB took a course on easing policy and regularly reminds the market that the incentive measures are real in the near future.


For the second time buyers were able to break above the strong resistance level of 1.3590. The first level breakthrough was stopped by the descending trend line 1.3640. After the second breakdown, the buyers may test the trend line again.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520 . The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The volumes are in the downgrade zone. Apparently, another approach to the trend line 1.3630 would lead to the price bounce downward. The bounce potential target will be performed by the support level of 1.3590, which is located in the uplink lower boundary.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British sterling slowed its growth against the dollar. There was not so much economic data, in fact, the only information published was about the UK public sector net borrowing in May, but the "cable" could not grow on this support as the borrowing was higher than last year and amounted to 13.3 billion British pounds against 8.7 billion previously, an increase of the budget deficit.

The resistance level of 1.7000 breakthrough was followed by a pull back. The rollback target is the support level 1.7000 which price approached on the decreasing volumes.

The rising trendline is located on the 1.7000 support level, which will serve as the further obstacle to the sellers.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.6940. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7040, the next one is at 1.7080.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The 1.7000 mark retest is more likely to lead to the short-term consolidation. Then we expect the price bounce up. The bounce potential target is the next resistance level of 1.7054. The break of this level will open the way up to 1.7100.

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

All the last week, the dollar/yen pair was traded under the U.S. government debt influence, as well as the messages from the Fed's decisions on monetary policy. This provoked multidirectional activity in a rather narrow sideways range. The BoJ head Kuroda confirmed the readiness without hesitation to correct the policy if the inflation returns to earlier levels.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a weak and non-confirmed sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

For the third time in the last three months, the buyers can approach the level of 102.65. If the approach occurs on the declining volume, it is likely to bounce down. The bounce potential target is the strong support level of 101.35.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc grows following the euro. The FOMC meeting was in focus. On its results the Fed buying volume decreased from $20 billion to $15 billion. According to the Fed's the economy has grown in recent months: the GDP growth forecast for 2015 is 3% to 3.2%; forecast for 2016 is between 2.5% to 3%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.9035.

The price is under the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, that’s a weak and confirmed sell signal.
The downward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 0.8903. When the price consolidates above the first target it will go to the level 0.8855.

 

[Valdis]

25.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

The first part of the week was inert for EUR/USD, it was marked by a low activity and trading in a range. In the Asian session, the dollar was sold slowly against all majors after the strong data from China publication that had supported the risk appetite.

Sales in the secondary housing market in the United States continued to rise in May, the second consecutive month, surpassing expectations, indicating that the acceleration of the recovery of the American housing market. The euro changed little after the market saw business activity in France and Germany which came weaker than expected. Activity in the manufacturing sector fell in France to 6-month low, while in the eurozone - to 7-month.

The British pound like the euro strengthened at first and then fell against the dollar. The pair finished the day on opening prices. There was not much news from the UK. We can only highlight the Bank of England lending report.

The British regulator noticed that investment companies are recoverying having increased the demand for loans. He believes their prospects are optimistic and expect a further increase in demand for loans. The market ignored the positive economic statistics in a public sector borrowing Britain.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The euro was growing against the dollar earlier this week. This growth was triggered by optimism publications from China. However, with the start of the European session, the interest to the single currency was returned and the pair returned to its original positions. In the end, the day was closed on opening prices, and the mistrust to the growth was caused by the low activity in the euro area, that showed a decrease in the leading countries of the EU and the unit as a whole.

ECB is preparing to quantitative easing. ECB official Nowotny said that the recovery in the euro area was weak, inflation would remain significantly below the target level until 2016 - and the ECB was interested in slowing down the strength of the euro.

EURUSD is correcting to a strong support level 1.3570.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520 . The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

If sellers are able to break through 1.3570 support down in the longer term the pair will approach to 1.3520, then we expect a retest of 1.3500.

Pound (GBP)

The pound rose slightly amid the Bank of England credit conditions survey which had shown an increase in loans demand in the UK companies the second consecutive quarter. The representative of the Bank of England, Miles said that the recovery in the UK had stabilized and the Bank of England should start raising interest rates in the coming months to maintain a strong economy.

From the resistance level 1.7055 the pair bounced back last week. The current decline is not supported by volumes, still it allowed sellers to break below the rising trend line of 1.7020.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.6940. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7040, the next one is at 1.7080.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

If sellers do not break below the support, we expect a rebound to 1.7055. The break up 1.7055 will open the way to 1.7100.

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

The yesterday’s trading ended with a growth, the cause of which probably was the performance of the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda, who said that inflation could stall the summer, but then resume its growth in the direction of 2.0%.

There is a symmetrical triangle at the 4-hour chart and the pair is being traded in it. Its boundaries are downward trend line 102.05 and the lower boundary is a line 101.85 from which there is a short-term bounce upward.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 102.05 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 102.25, further then towards 102.70.

Franc (CHF)

The U.S. currency continued to weaken waiting the data that can show the goods orders index weakening in a long-term and the slowdown in sales in the U.S primary housing market. According to a statement released the other day SNB Swiss franc was overvalued in May by 12%. The assessment was made against a basket of currencies of 40 trading partners. In April figure was 12.5% overvalued.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

The price is under the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, that’s a weak and confirmed sell signal.
The downward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is above the price.

MACD is in the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 0.8920 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go down to 0.8880.

 

[Valdis]

26.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD was trading in a flat again despite the negative macroeconomic data from the Eurozone. The IFO business climate release in Germany in June came out worse than median forecasts showing a decline for the second month in a row which is quite a wake-up call for the leading economy in the Eurozone. After that the euro/dollar fell but then managed to regain lost ground. The macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. market presented a pleasant surprise - housing sales in the primary market in May totaled a record 18.6% which shows the restoration of the property market and the consumer confidence increase. The dollar rates have responded to this positive report with a growth.

The GBP/USD remained under pressure after the BoE’s leaders’ inflation speech in the Parliament. The regulator decided to slow down this time and gave a restrained assessment of the prospects for an economic growth in the future after the first rate growth. Investors took it negatively and began to sell the British currency.

The USD/JPY left the side range. The USA market did not please the market with positive consumer confidence statistics and housing sales in the primary market which confirmed a steady upward trend in the U.S. economy. In the light of this there was a quotation increase on the world's leading stock markets, the U.S. S&P500 once again set a new historical high.

However, at the trading day closing investors decided to take profits on the stock markets, whereby observed sell risky assets.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

Euro showed mixed trading against "greenback". German Ifo Institute published unpleasant data for the euro - in June confidence in the German business community weakened more than everyone expected. During June, the sentiment index was 109.7 points, according the forecast we expected a decline to 110.2 from 110.4 level in May. Taking into the consideration this weak newsflow we believe the pair will not change the positions and will continue trading in a range.


The price is finding the first support at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3570 . The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed upwards. The cloud is directed upward as well. The upward movement will be continued until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in the positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670. We do not exclude the falls to 1.3610.

Pound (GBP)

General Overview

There pound was very vulnerable the other day. The currency fell against the dollar and the euro after Mark Carney mentioned his plans about the bank policy. Speaking in parliament, the regulator expressed his concerns about the slow growth of wages in Britain, saying that perhaps it would affect the plans of the Central Bank regarding interest rates.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6940, the next one is at 1.6860. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7000, the next one is at 1. 7040.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is directed upwards.

The MACD histogram is in the positive territory. The indicator is descending.

Trading recommendations

The pair direction is not certain. The pair is near the cloud boundary so we can expect the bounce up. If the GBP/USD enters the cloud the buy signal will be weakened and the price might go down to 1.6940.

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The dollar/yen showed mixed trading the first part of the yesterday having fallen at the end of the day. When the market saw U.S. positive economic reports the pair fell sharply having fixed the yen buying. It is unlikely that this instrument will change the activity. We expect the consolidation to be continued.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen are horizontal, both lines are directed down.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 101.60 testing soon.

Franc (CHF)

General Overview

Once data from the United States demonstrated that CPI and housing sales grew the USA prospects for an economy recovery improved.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

The price is under the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, that’s a weak and confirmed sell signal.
The downward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is above the price.

MACD is in the negative territory. The indicator is descending.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair will go to 0.8880 soon.

 

[Valdis]

27.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

The U.S. currency lost some ground against its major rivals, the dollar index DXY basket finished trading at around 80.19. U.S. Department of Commerce has reported a significant decline in orders for durable goods in May and it's all happening on rising consumer confidence. The Final U.S. GDP for the 1st quarter struck another blow to dollar - an indicator went much worse than the forecast was, showing a decline to the level of - 2.9% qoq. Immediately after the publication the euro/dollar showed bullish sentiment.

The GBP/USD has been under the pressure the whole week. Investors close long positions after the significant strengthening of the British currency. The internal conditions also did not contribute to the "bullish" sentiment - the retail sales release according to the Confederation of British industrialists showed in June the greatest reduction in the last 6 months, which is the first alarm signal.

USD/JPY is still trading in a "sideways" in the absence of a strong news background prefers to copy the dynamics of trading in the stock markets of Japan and the United States. The sharp slowdown in orders for durable goods in the U.S. in May furthered the dollar weakening.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has been the most stable in yesterday's session, as was able to keep most of conquests against the dollar, which has gained the support from the weak U.S. economy news. The same Eurozone economy data did not hurt the euro, while this news status is the same. We do not expect important news from the Eurozone. Perhaps we can get something from the started the EU summit.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520 . The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.3665. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 1.3720.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The effect from the statements made by M. Carney that weak wage growth in the UK can move to tighten monetary policy at a remote period, continues to press the pound. The growth is moderate. To return its loss the "cable" could after the weak U.S. economy data release.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.6940. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7040, the next one is at 1.7080.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

If buyers cannot break and consolidate above 1.7000 the second time, the downward trend will be continued.

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.6940, 1.6900 - 1.6895

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar/yen also fell after the weak U.S. economy release in the 1st quarter. However, technical factors showed a strong support that had allowed the price to return almost to their original positions. The political moment - Prime Minister Abe performance that was dedicated to the reform and the economic recovery, has not affected the market at all.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 101.95 - 101.90

The approach to this line may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 101.50

Franc (CHF)

The dollar weakened across the board after the U.S. Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product contracted at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the first three months of this year compared with the consensus forecast decline of 1.7%.

Initially it was reported that in the first quarter U.S. GDP increased by 0.1%, but the data were subsequently revised to a decrease of 1.0%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

The price is under the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, that’s a weak and confirmed sell signal.
The downward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is above the price.

MACD is in the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.8903. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.8855.

 

[Valdis]

Welcome to Fort Financial Services

29 June 2014

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