Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №35 from 14/02/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The main pair found the support in statistics and effectively enjoys the moment as long as possible for its strengthening. The euro continues to grow that started earlier. Investors use statistical factor to achieve strong levels within the pair euro/dollar where it will be possible to begin building the next wave direction.

Eurozone countries have started to publish economic growth reports for the fourth quarter. France is not impressed: the GDP will rise by 0.1% q/q at the end of the year as expected. In annual terms a growth was only 0.2%. But the German statistics was very interesting and promising. The Germany's GDP gained 0.7% q/q at the end of the fourth quarter in 2014 with the growth forecast by 0.3%. In annual terms, the economy increased by 1.6% against the expected 1.0% growth.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar extended its consolidation range upwards. We believe the pair may restore its positions towards 1.1500. Next we expect a decline to the level of 1.1230. Then we consider the pair consolidation and another decrease to the level of 1.1100.


Pound

The UK do not plan to publish important news, the pound will remain under the previous information influence and can even grow up a little bit which is generally observed at the current trades. However, as it seems, "bullish" emotions have already become more reserved in anticipation of the coming weekend and the consolidation trade can resume, but in the higher ranges.

Trading recommendations

The pair pound and the US dollar have fulfilled the local growth target. The next step is the correctional growth development with the pair reduction to the level of 1.5200. Next in line is the fifth correctional growth with the pair increase towards 1.5430. If the market increases above 1.5430, it may cause a decline down the trend to the level of 1.4850 testing.


Yen

We have not got any news from Japan, the pair dollar/yen was traded with multidirectional fluctuations and will probably continue its lateral movement, guided by technical levels. However, a directed activity can occur amid the US stock market and the government debt market events.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen completed the decline wave. The next step is a correction. We consider its recovery to the level of 119.50. Then we expect again a decrease for the potential target of 116.50.


Gold

The trading range which lasted the whole previous session this week, ended with the dollar decrease. The US dollar was under pressure from all its main competitors and closed the trading day with losses along the entire market.

Trading recommendations

The gold is trying to form a correction to the level of 1240. Then again decline to the level of 1210. Then it will be new correction. Thus we will obtain the consolidation range with extension upwards and then downwards. Next we expect the center testing below and the reduction continuation down the trend. The main target is the level of 1115. The first matrix target is the level of 1190.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №36 from 21/02/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The Eurozone may present information that is able to influence the market and with the support for the euro, of course, if forecasts confirm the fact and the Greek problems resolution will not spoil the investors’ mood, inclining to risk aversion. The February preliminary assessment (PMI) in manufacturing sectors are expected with the improvement - the euro zone indicators as a whole can show 53.0 after 52.3 in services and 51.5 against 51.0 in the manufacturing sector. The Germany indicators are expected with the similar dynamics. The France indicators, although are expected with a growth, but in the area of recession below 50.0.

Trading recommendations

Today the pair euro/dollar is trading with a decrease. We expect the level of 1.1200 testing. Next, we expect the pair return to the level of 1.1380. Then we consider the new consolidation formation. We expect the level of 1.1000 testing with its breakthrough. As an alternative consider the correction to the level of 1.1650.


Pound

The UK news is expected with mixed results and probably will not cause the market activity increase. The January retail sales are projected with a decrease for the month, -0.8% m/m against the earlier + 0.4% m/m and with its growth for the year, + 5.5% m/m, after the last year + 4.3% y/y .

Trading recommendations

The pair pound and the US dollar broke through the growth channel. The next step is a correction to the level of 1.5200. The first reduction target is the level of 1.5300. Next we consider consolidation and the pair decline continuation.


Yen

The US dollar was traded almost without changes against the Japanese yen. The pair reached the maximum of 119.30 on the dollar sales from the Japanese importers part, producing commercial transactions calculations. However, in the rest the foreign exchange market was quiet as many Asian traders did not participate at the trades in connection with the New Year celebration according to the lunar calendar.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen is in the next consolidation. We expect the decline and the level of 118.20 breakthrough. Then again we expect a consolidation and a new decline to the level of 117.00.


Gold

The gold prices rose in Europe on Thursday after the traders got acquainted with the Fed and the US meeting minutes and came to the conclusion that the central bank is more likely inclined to loose monetary policy.

Trading recommendations

The gold continues the consolidation range formation around the level of 1210. We consider this structure as the reduction continuation figure within the trend downwards. The main target is the level of 1110 testing.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №37 from 28/02/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

During January inflation fell by 0.7% m/m (-0.1% y/y) in the US. If everybody got accustomed to the figures month reduction, their decrease has been revealed for 4.5 years the first time. We should realize the situation about the consumer price index. The February data will show whether a complete deflationary trend is formed and if it is still present, the Fed should respond to it.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar has fulfilled the reduction target. Today, the market is trading around the level of 1.1190. Further, we expect the consolidation range formation. We will consider the level of 1.1250 testing with its breakthrough upwards. We expect the pair decline to the level of 1.1100 with its breakthrough downwards.


Pound

The second assessment showed that the fourth quarter UK GDP volume has increased by 2.7% on the quarterly basis as in the previous quarter that was in line with the forecasts. In general, the British economic state does not cause particular concern as well as the national regulator attitude and its governor has repeatedly talked about the possibility that the next step would be the interest rates increase. Thus, even the slightest reason to doubt about the dollar strength will be sufficient for the pair growth resumption to the recent highs.

Trading recommendations

Practically, the pair pound and the US dollar formed the third growth wave and exposed impulse reduction to the correction. Today we consider the price recovery to the level of 1.5480 (as the minimum) and then again its decline to the level of 1.5280.


Yen

Official data showed that household spending fell last month by 0.3% in Japan while it was expected its growth by 0.4% after increase by 0.4%.

Another report showed that the Japan consumer prices rose to the annual rate by 2.4% in January in line with expectations while the CPI, excluding food products, rose by 2.2% last month that is lower than we expected increase by 2 3%.

Trading recommendations

The pair yen/dollar extended consolidation upwards and currently is approaching the level of 120.00. We consider this structure as the new consolidation range formation. Next on the agenda there is the pair decline for the triangle lower boundary testing.


Gold

Janet Yellen reassured investors for gold buying, saying that the easy monetary policy would be continued. As a result, the dollar fell slightly against other major world currencies. Therefore, two important factors will support the gold price: the Fed recent speech in the US Congress and the gold market recovery activity in China.

Trading recommendations

Today the gold offers the market a consolidation formation. We do not exclude the possibility of consolidation expansion upwards with an attempt for a correction development. Still main scenario is a decline continuation. The target is the level of 1175.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №38 from 07/03/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The Germany industrial production and the revised 4th quarter GDP will be soon published. If the reports come out at least with the slight forecasts excess, the euro develop correction, coupled with such factor as profit taking at the end of the week. Also the euro sharply fell after the US employment report publication. It came out better than expected.

Trading recommendations

The support is at the level of 1.0840. Its breakthrough will move the pair towards 1.0760 and then to the level of 1.0600. The resistance is at the level of 1.1000. Its breakthrough will ease the pair short-term negative outlook, moving the pair towards 1.1180 and then towards 1.1280-1.1380.


Pound

The Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at the record low level of 0.50%, established in March 2009. The central bank also kept the asset purchases program, financed by the central bank reserves issuance in the amount of 375 billion pounds. The pair dynamics can be caused largely by external factors. The NFP indicator on 295 thousand publication was followed by the pair decrease.

Trading recommendations

The support is in the area 1.5000. The breakthrough will open the way to 1.4920. The resistance is at the level of 1.5160. Its breakthrough will ease the short-term negative outlook, moving it towards 1.5300 and then towards 1.5370 and 1.5450.


Yen

The pair dollar/yen is currently holding above 120.00. It gets support amid the expectations that the Fed still will raise rates in June, as expected. However, the pair further upward dynamics depend on the labor market positive release. Also the employment component dynamics with the ISM industrial and service sector indices which have increased, we can assume that the pair growth can continue.

Trading recommendations

The resistance is at the level of 120.80. Its breakthrough will move the pair at the level of 121.80. The support is at the level of 120.00. Its breakthrough will ease the short-term bullish outlook and will move the pair towards 119.60 and then towards 117.20.


Gold

The gold price broke down the psychologically important level of $ 1200 per ounce. The metal fell after NFP publication that said the US economy was able to create 295K new jobs in February. The solid growth rate will be a proof of the world largest economic growth which will keep supporting the dollar and lead to the pressure increase on the precious metal.

Trading recommendations

The nearest resistance is at the level of 1190. The support is near 1160. Its completion will enhance sentiment towards the precious metals sales.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №39 from 14/03/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The pair euro/dollar rose sharply to 1.0683 during this week. The US statistics caused negative impact on the dollar. Unexpectedly for us the retail sales significantly decreased in February.

The US retail sales index was 0.6% in February (forecast was 0.3%, the previous value was 0.8%). The US retail sales index, excluding cars, was -0.1% in February (the forecast was 0.5%, the previous value is revised from -0.9 to -1.1%).

The pair EUR/USD has not been able to reach the maximum of 1.0683 for a long time. The rate fell to 1.0483. The bears within the euro could decrease further.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar have formed the impulse growth. But its structure does not have the growth potential. At present we consider the possibility of the minimum update with the consolidation expansion downwards. Next, we will consider the possibility of the new impulse growth.


Pound

The pair GBP/USD increased to the level of 1.5026. The negative impact on the dollar was caused by the US statistics. Unexpectedly for us retail sales decreased significantly in February.

The British pound came under pressure after the Bank of England governor’s announcement that there was no need to rush with the interest rates increase. M. Carney started to make his speech after the US statistics release in 15 minutes. The pair GBP/USD fell from the high of 1.5026 to 1.4751 that is the new week minimum.

Trading recommendations

The pair has completed the reduction target. We expect the current minimum update and the new consolidation range formation. We anticipate the beginning of correction.


Yen

The pair dollar/yen will remain under pressure from the deteriorated attitude towards the US dollar after the US retail sales unexpected decrease in February. The US Treasury bond yields short-term decline and the Japanese exporters’ sales also put pressure on the pair. However, attitude towards the dollar has improved due to the lower than expected number of claims in the United States.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/ yen was unable to develop a third impulse downwards. This scenario shows a possibility of the new maximum update. Next we predict the consolidation range formation with a reversal pattern. Then we believe in the decline continuation.


Gold

The gold prices have been declining for nine consecutive sessions - it was the longest recession since January 1998. This dynamics was triggered by the rumors that the US Federal Reserve can soon start raising interest rates.

Trading recommendations

The gold continues to trade within a consolidation. We consider the decline continuation within the trend downwards to touch the level of 1110. Next we expect the correction beginning.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №40 from 21/03/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The US dollar managed to recover most of the lost positions after the Janet Yellen’s Wednesday speech. This week the US Federal Reserve has revised the economic growth, the inflation and the interest rates forecasts for 2015. Janet Yellen also said that the Central Bank leadership was concerned about the dollar growth.

The euro bulls closed the previously opened long positions and some traders took the bears’ side. After all, the European QE and the Greece problems put pressure on the euro. And the Fed can raise interest rates in June when the macroeconomic data will signal about it (inflation, wages, labor market). It is risky to buy the euro in the current situation. However, the pair grew on the Friday’s trades.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar completely played back all the news background. And today we expect the pair decrease continuation. We do not exclude the consolidation from the level of 1.0600. Then again we expect a decline for the minimum update.


Pound

The pound temporarily recovered before having fallen back under pressure.

The earlier recovery was mainly dictated by technical factors. Moreover, the market bond yields spread between Great Britain and the Unites States is not in favor of the former one. Nevertheless, the pound increased at the end of the week.

The Bank of England governor Haldane said that if necessary, MPC could again take additional monetary policy easing measures to counteract the low inflation. He also added that the interest rate could be reduced to zero level.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still in the decline structure. At present we consider the minimum update. The target is the level of 1.4680. Further we consider the new consolidation and the pair return to the level of 1.4900.


Yen

The US dollar fell against the yen. The dollar index ended the week with the maximum decrease in July 2013 on the expectations that the Federal Reserve System (Fed) would not hurry with the basic interest rate increase.

The index value that is focused on the US dollar against 10 major world currencies, fell by 0,3% during the trades. Since the beginning of the week the indicator fell by 1.2%.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen continues to form a growth structure. We expect a new wave with the target of 121.60.


Gold

The gold futures have declined. The crude oil prices decrease put pressure on the gold prices. The crude oil futures are trading near the 6-year low as the world market is already oversaturated with supplies and is facing the possibility of the oil supplies resumption from Iran.

Trading recommendations

Now the gold forms a correction to the level of 1187. We shall consider its decline continuation with the level of 1160 testing within the downwards trend.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №41 from 28/03/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The US dollar resumed its rally after the jobless claims and PMI services positive reports. Both indicators have exceeded forecasts.

The claims number amounted 282 thousand (the forecast was 290 thousand; the previous value was 291 thousands).

The ECB President Mario Draghi has refrained from new comments. He is optimistic about the economic cycle and expects that the asset purchases volume would reach to 60 billion euro till the end of March.

Traders started to close long positions after the unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above 1.1000. The pair euro/dollar completed its growth on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Trading recommendations

There are only two trading days left before the end of the month. Now the fight is for the month candle closure. It is very important. The pair EUR/USD is showing a positive trend in the short term. We consider the euro purchases after the price reaches the level of 1.1040, the stop- loss is at the level of 1.0860, profit-taking is at the level of 1.1150.

Pound

The pound rose after the UK of strong retail sales publication. Actual values have exceeded forecasts; the previous figures were revised upwards. The pair GBP/USD has reached the mark of 1.4993.

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gave his speech. According to his statement, the Bank of England is planning to raise interest rates.

Trading recommendations

The pair is showing a positive trend in the short term. We expect purchases after the price reaches the level of 1.4970, the stop loss is at the level of 1.4870, the target is at the level of 1.5050.


Yen

The US dollar has not almost changed against the yen after the Japan controversial economic reports publication as optimism started to decline after the US jobless claims report one on Thursday.

The official data showed that the Japan household spending increased by 0.8% in February, exceeding expectations by 0.5% after the previous month decrease by 0.3%. A separate report showed that the Japan consumer price inflation fell to 2.0% on the annual basis in February, compared with a growth expectations to 2.1%, declining from 2.2% in January.

Trading recommendations

The pair USD/JPY is showing a negative trend now. We believe the yen will decrease after the price reaches the level of 118.50. We may place the stop- loss at the level of 119.50, we may take profit at the level of 117.75.


Gold

The gold prices are declining as traders decided to take profit after the seven-day rally, still the dollar is increasing due to the US statistics. The gold has strengthened this week amid the growing demand for the safe assets, followed after the global stock markets decrease resumption and the Saudi Arabia bombing aircraft reports and allies that support the rebels’ positions in Yemen.

Trading recommendations

The gold prices are declining as traders decided to take profit after the seven-day rally, still the dollar is increasing due to the US statistics. The gold has strengthened this week amid the growing demand for the safe assets, followed after the global stock markets decrease resumption and the Saudi Arabia bombing aircraft reports and allies that support the rebels’ positions in Yemen.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №42 from 04/04/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The pair euro/dollar was trading around the mark of 1.0870 amid its very low interest for sale. Yesterday investors started to correct positions before the Easter weekend. However, the weak non-farms release was followed by the pair sharp increase.

According to the data output, the number of the US jobless claims fell by 20 thousand and amounted to 268 thousand while it was forecasted 285 thousand. These informative reports can attract the Federal Reserve attention which is closely monitoring the situation in the employment market.

Trading recommendations

The main driver was the fundamental factor. We expect the pair’s increase to the level of 1.1040. Next, we do not exclude the growth development to update the current maximum. We do not exclude the decrease possibility towards the level of 1.0600.


Pound

The Market research results reports in the UK construction sector showed a stronger than expected activity slowdown. The construction sector PMI index fell to 57.8 from 60.1 when it was forecasted 59.7. The result above 50.0 indicates the construction sector growth and the March level can be considered positive, but the fact of the index decrease below the forecasted levels can upset investors. The pair grew amid the negative non-farm release.

Trading recommendations

The pair was trading in the narrow consolidation range almost the whole week. And on the fundamental background it can complete the upwards consolidation, breaking through the level of 1.5000 and expanding downwards with the target completion at the level of 1.4700.


Yen

The market expected the jobless claims number to grow by 245,000 and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at the level of 5.5%. The March manufacturing PMI index came out 50.3 against the previous value of 50.4. The market may continue to stabilize in the mid-range. In the medium-term horizon the dollar can maintain a bullish trend, given the differences in monetary policy between the Fed and the ECB.

Trading recommendations

The fundamental factors were a main driver on Friday. The pair sharply fell. We do not exclude the new decrease wave development to the level of 118.00.


Gold

The gold prices fell from the one-month high on Thursday as some traders preferred to take profits before the US employment data output.

The six world powers and Iran agreement details, reached on Thursday, regarding the solutions for the Tehran's nuclear program key parameters, have reduced the demand for the gold as a safe haven.

Trading recommendations

The market exposed the gold growth structure. We see it as a correction to the decline impulse. At present, we consider the possibility of the current growth and new maximum update with a further decline to the level of 1175. The main target is the level of 1115.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №43 from 11/04/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The euro’s trades stabilized at Friday after the four sessions of massive sales. The pair stopped falling. Investors have sold the European currency for four days in a row, but the Greece factor still suspended this sales wave. Yesterday the Greek authorities reported to the world that they have managed to pay off the debt to the International Monetary Fund in the amount of 460 million euros. This is positive news, but it was expected.

According to the yesterday statistics, the US jobless claims number rose up by 14 thousand and amounted to 281 thousand against the forecast by 271 thousand for the week.

Trading recommendations

The pair has fulfilled the calculated target of 1.0650. The next step is the pair’s growth to the level of 1.1000. But the market has not generated the growth impulse yet. If the market is not able to form the reversal structure, we expect the decline continuation possibility for the current lows update.


Pound

The Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged while the previously published data showed the UK trade deficit increase in February. The industrial production and manufacturing industries statistics can influence the dynamics course as well as the NIESR GDP data. In February the UK industrial production volume rose up by 0.1% m/m, the manufacturing production volume increased by 0.4% m/m.

Trading recommendations

The pair has broken through the consolidation range downwards. At present we consider the possibility of the pair decrease to the level of 1.4500. The local target is below 1.4800, then again testing downwards for the main target completion at the level of 1.4300.


Yen

The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen after the jobless claims strong data that reinforced expectations in relation to interest rates increase by the Federal Reserve System (FRS) in the second half of the year. The pair dollar/yen rose up to 120.60 that is the highest level for three weeks. The recent conflicting economic data raised doubts about the US economy and created uncertainty about the Fed interest rates rise timing. However the pair fell from the new maximums but it fixated above the level of 120.00.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen completed the growth structure local target. The next step is a decline back to the level of 119.00. Next we expect the pair increase for the level of 121.00 testing. As an alternative, we do not except the possibility of the growth continuation without a correction.


Gold

Despite the US non-farm payrolls weak employment report, investors still believe that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. It can happen either in June or in September, but the interest rates rise timing will depend on the coming US macroeconomic statistics. Thus, demand for the US dollar as pressure on the gold is still preserved.

Trading recommendations

The gold after another decline has formed a consolidation. Next, the main scenario is the trend continuation downwards with the level of 1175 testing.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №44 from 18/04/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

Eurozone again does not publish any interesting reports. Despite the fact that the Greek question still remains unresolved, there is no special reaction from the pair. Even Christine Lagarde’s statements that the IMF will not provide respite to Athens in the debt payment had no pressure on the euro. Of course, later at the end of the week we do not exclude profit taking which can cause the pair rebound from the current levels. The United States released the inflation data that dropped by 0.1% in annual terms while the core inflation rose by 1.8%.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR/USD will show a positive dynamics. The euro purchases are possible after the price reaches the level of 1.0800, the stop loss is at the level of 1.0600, profit-taking is possible at the level of 1.0900.


Pound

The UK shall publish the labor market report. The jobless claims number fell by 20,700 in March compared to 31,000 the previous month as it was forecasted 29 500. The average salary in the UK increased by 1.7% in February, taking into account premiums compared with a growth by 1.8% the previous month as it was expected growth by + 1.8%. In the light of this the pound can try to break through the resistance at the level of 1.5000. Although it will be extremely difficult for it to rise in terms of political uncertainty.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair may show a positive dynamics. The pound purchases are possible after its reaching the level of 1.5000, the stop loss is at the level of 1.4800, profit- taking is at the level of 1.5050.


Yen

The pair USD/JPY dynamics may be affected by the US consumer price inflation and the consumer confidence data output from the Michigan University. Now the base of any movements is expectations, concerning the US Federal Reserve monetary policy. The US regulator interest rate increase possibility has been already put in the pair price.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair may show a negative dynamics. The yen sales are possible after the price reaches the level of 118.50, the stop loss is at the level of 119.50, the profit-taking is at the level of 118.00.


Gold

The gold prices have grown as the US Thursday disappointing data has created uncertainty about the interest rate increase terms by the Federal Reserve that continues to put pressure on the US dollar.

Trading recommendations

The gold stabilized near the mark of 1200.00. Above this level there is the resistance near the recent highs at the level of 1230. There is the support at the level of 1185 below the level of 1175.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №45 from 25/04/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The US initial jobless claims number rose by one thousand and amounted to 295 thousand. The average forecast assumes reduction to 290 thousand.
Still the housing market report disappointed very much. The new home sales fell to 11.4% in February, even taking into account seasonal fluctuations and amounted to 481 thousand. This is the first fact of decline for three months and it is so large-scale. It was expected that the indicator would be 514 thousand. The February data were the weakest for the year and a half. The average house price has also decreased.

Trading recommendations

The pair was able to develop another growth wave. The whole structure has a pronounced corrective nature. The basic scenario considers the reversal structure development at the currents lows. Further we expect another structure development with the pair reduction for the level breakthrough of 1.0500.


Pound

Despite the UK retail sales decline by 0.5% (m/m) in March the pair GBP/USD remained at the level of 1.5000 and grew above the level of 1.5100 amid the US dollar weakness. The pressure on the world reserve currency caused a growth for the last week to 295 thousand of the US initial jobless claims which exceeded the forecast by 288 thousand.

Trading recommendations

The pair formed another growth structure. We believe that it is a correction structure. We consider technical reversal patterns further development for a decrease to the level of 1.4850.


Yen

The yen strengthens its position amid the dollar weakness and correction in the global stock markets. According to the Bank of Japan governor Kuroda, inflationary pressure continues to strengthen amid the inflationary expectations growth and Finance Minister Aso said that Japan was no longer in deflation, noting, however, that the central bank would continue to implement the stimulating monetary policy.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen is falling. The market has corrected another growth structure. If the pair goes upwards, we believe in the level testing of 121.00. Shall the pair go downwards we expect the level of 118.00 breakthrough.


Gold

Gold prices have not changed as the dollar recovered after the US weak economic reports in the previous session while markets were waiting for the US further data. The gold quotations decreased at the end of the week.

Trading recommendations

The gold came out of the consolidation range. We do not exclude the further level of 1210 testing. Then we anticipate a decrease for the minimum breakthrough and the range extension downwards. The first decline target is the level of 1150.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №46 from 02/05/2015


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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

It was noted that 36 thousand of new jobs appeared in the euro zone, but only 8 thousand appeared in Germany that was worse than expected, still this information did not displease the market. There was a slight pressure on the euro in the morning after the Germany retail sales and the France consumer spending reports recorded a minus on the month basis. There will not be published any Eurozone important messages. The European currency will trade under the external data influence and can decline against the dollar if the US statistics do not announce the negative results.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR/USD may show a correction development. The euro can decrease to the mark of 1.1100. Next decrease target will be 1.0500.


Pound

The UK lending activity increased in March – the net consumer lending is expected with an increase by 2.6 billion pounds against the earlier +2.5 billion pounds, the mortgage loans increase by 1.8 billion pounds after +1.7 billion pounds in February, the number of mortgage approvals to 62.3 thousand against 61.8 in the previous period. The positive changes are predicted in the manufacturing sphere – the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) can show a growth to 54.5 in April from 54.4 in March. In general, there are no reasons for disappointment and the pound can receive support for the growth resumption if the forecasts are correct.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD may show a correction development in the short term. The pound/dollar can break the support level of 1.5100. this breakthrough will be followed by a decrease to the level of 1.4580.


Yen

The Japanese Finance Ministry data for the last week is showing a slight increase in demand for the foreign assets among the Japanese investors. The foreign bonds purchases growth amounted to 185.3 billion yen, the foreign shares purchases increase is shown in 170.0 billion yen. But perhaps, because of the Bank of Japan pessimism it was a purchases surge this week that caused demand for the US dollar and we will learn about it in a week. Also, if investors expect the US indicators further growth, these purchases are worthwhile. The yen returns to the direct correlation with the US stock market. The ideological basis can be the idea about the GPIF pension fund share portfolio increase to 25%.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD/JPY may show a positive trend. We suppose the pair will go to first 120.40. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.50.


Gold

The gold quotations strong decrease at the end of the week returned the metal to the 1.5-month range lower bound.

The gold futures were declining during the trades on Friday.

Trading recommendations

The session minimum was the mark of 1170.25 dollars per ounce. The gold found support at the level of 1170.00 dollars and the resistance at the level of 1210 dollars.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №47 from 09/05/2015

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Euro

The euro zone data was multidirectional, still the Greek problems general negative background inclined investors to sales. The Germany industrial orders rose in March, still its growth is worse than it was forecasted 0.9% against 1.6%, the Eurozone retail sector business activity index increased from 48.6 to 49.5, but the trade balance decreased in France from -3.6 billion euros (revised from -3.4 billion) to -4.6 billion euros. Also, the Spain and the France 10-year bond yields were sold as the higher bond yields than it had been before. The US indicators were better than forecasts. The number of jobless claims for the last week was 265K against 277K and 262K the previous one. The last month non-farm sector new jobs was positive – 223K. The forecast is 228 thousand against 126 thousand in March.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR/USD will show a positive trend. The euro purchases are possible when the price reaches the level of 1.1350, the stop loss is at the level of 1.1265 and profit-taking is at the level of 1.1415.


Pound

According to the preliminary results, the UK Parliamentary elections appeared to be more positive than a few months as the preliminary polls had showed earlier. The current Prime Minister David Cameron’s conservative party from the parliament 650-seats gets almost half of them- 316 seats, the Miliband’s Labour party takes 239 seats, the Scottish National Party (Nick Klegg) takes 58 seats, the Liberal Democrats take 10 seats. Now, there is no doubt that David Cameron will be a prime minister. In order to set up the majority in Parliament Conservatives will be in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. The pound has increased more than two hundred points amid this news. After the weekend investors will calm down and will follow the general market trend. It is still in the US dollar favor as evidenced by the oil and gold prices decline.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair GBP/USD will show a positive trend. The pound purchases are possible when the price reaches the level of 1.5480, the stop loss is at the level of 1.5420 and profit-taking is at the level of 1.5510.


Yen

The dollar rose against the yen as the US dollar is generally supported by the jobless claims optimistic report while the Bank of Japan last policy meeting minutes showed that the majority of the board members are in favor of the asset purchases continuation.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD/JPY will show a positive trend. The yen sales are possible when the price reaches the level of 119.10, the stop loss is at the level of 119.80 and profit-taking is at the level of 118.65.


Gold

The Gold prices grew, however, their growth is constrained by demand for the dollar supported by the jobless claims while the markets are guided by the US non-farm payrolls government employment data.

Trading recommendations

The gold will likely find the support at the level of 1165.00 and the resistance at the level of 1215.00.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №48 from 16/05/2015


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Euro

The euro consolidation on the local maximum was again extended, pushing the pair to the upper bound. The US worsened inflation indicators were reason for it. The April producer price index fell by 0.4% against the growth expectations by 0.1%, the base CPI was -0.2% against 0.1%. Also taking into consideration the fact that Germany and France had the day off and that the euro showed the greatest volatility in the US session, we assume that traders were more impressed by the US Wednesday weak retail sales.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR/USD may show a positive trend. The euro purchases are possible when the price reaches the level of 1.1520, the stop loss is at the level of 1.1440 and profit-taking is at the level of 1.1560.


Pound

The pair GBP/USD rebounded from the session highs, demonstrating volatile trades amid the anemic session and the empty European calendar.

The pound rebound was amid the dollar recovery: the dollar index recovered from the 3-month low and is trading around 93.55, + 0.15% intraday. The market movement drivers can become the US industrial production, manufacturing activity and consumer sentiment reports.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair GBP/USD may show positive dynamics. The pound purchases are possible when the price reaches the level of 1.5800, the stop loss is at the level of 1.5730 and profit-taking is at the level of 1.5850.


Yen

The yen remains under pressure against the dollar amid the demand decrease for the safe assets. This week the pair USD/JPY fell after the retail sales disappointing report which increased concerns about the US economic recovery and the Fed interest rates increase.

The data showed that the US retail sales amounted to 0.0% in April against + 0.2% while sales excluding cars rose only by 0.1% against the growth forecast by + 0.5%. Later, however, the US labor market solid data supported the US dollar.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD/JPY will show negative dynamics. The yen sales are possible when the price reaches the level of 118.90, the stop loss is at the level of 119.20 and profit-taking is at the level of 118.70.


Gold

The gold is supported mainly by speculations as whether the Fed can increase its key interest rate later than expected towards the end of the year or early 2016.

According to the recent study, the gold reserves of the five world largest gold miners were checked and confirmed, but they continue to deplete. On average the precious metal reserves fell by 12% in the period from 2013 to 2014. The study dealt with the following mining companies: Barrick, AngloGold, Newmont, Goldcorp and Kinross.

Trading recommendations

The gold is slightly correcting while the resistance is at the level of 1230, then at the levels of 1235 and 1245.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №49 from 23/05/2015

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Euro

Germany has published multidirectional statistics: the IFO expectations index fell to 103.0 in May (103.1 forecast) against the previous 103.5, The IFO business climate index fell to 108.5 in May (108.3 forecast) against the previous 108.6 while under the current conditions the IFO index rose up to 114.3 in May (forecast 113.5) against the previous 113.9. We received the US April inflation data. The consumer price index decreased by 0.1%, the core index increased by 0.3%.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR USD may show a negative trend. The first target is the level 1.0900, the next one is the level of 1.0800.


Pound

The UK April retail sales showed their rapid growth by 1.2% vs. 0.4%. After this positive event there appeared suggestions that due to the consumer spending increase the economy will show growth rather than the Bank of England declined assessment by 2.4% last week, the Bank of England governor Mark Carney’ speech causes increased attention. Negativity could be caused by the UK net borrowings public sector growth and expectations make up 7.8 billion pounds against the earlier 6.7 billion pounds. However the data came out 6.8B.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD may show a negative trend in the short term. We suppose the pair will go to 1.5450 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100.


Yen

The Japanese yen is declining after the US stock indices slight decrease. The pair USD/JPY is close to the historic highs and this fact can have a greater risk degree than the situation in the stock markets. On Friday investors were taking profits on the historic highs after the preceding five-day rally. The Nikkei225 fell only by 0.15% against the Dow Jones zero closing.

The Bank of Japan kept its current monetary policy and identified the economic improvement as moderate.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD/JPY may show a positive trend. After the resistance level of 122.00 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 124.20 will be opened.


Gold

The gold fell to 1203.77 dollars per ounce. Traders continue to adopt wait-and-see position, not being in hurry to buy massively the precious metal despite the relatively low levels.

The FOMC members’ speech indicated that the last meeting results, most likely, will match to the previous one. However, traders preferred to close some positions.

Physical demand for gold caused some support which is seasonal in nature and which does not particularly depend on the economic developments.

Trading recommendations

The resistance remains at the level of 1210. Only after its breakthroughs we may talk about the sentiment resumption for the precious metal purchase. The nearest support remains near 1200.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №50 from 30/05/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

European indices came out better than expected, but the media is full of gloomy forecasts about the Greek problem which put pressure on the euro and the British pound. The Deutsche Bank has determined the probability of the Greece agreement failure with creditors by 40% and almost one hundred percent probability of the debt non-payment to the IMF even if signing such an agreement. The ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny (Austria CB) declared to the general public the lack of legal grounds for granting the interim lending to Greece. According to the statistics: the Germany import prices increased by 0.6% in April against the growth forecast by 0.5%, the Swiss trade balance for April rose up from 2.5 billion francs to 2.86 billion.

Trading recommendations

The pair EUR/USD shows a negative trend but we expect the pair’s growth in the short term. The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1150. After breaking 1.1150 the buyers may go to 1.1200.


Pound

The UK first quarter GDP second assessment remained unchanged. The GDP second assessment remained unchanged at the level of 0.3%. The number of the UK mortgage lending permits for April increased from 39.2 thousand (revised from 38.8 thousand) to 42.1 thousand while it was expected 39.2 thousand.

The GfK consumer confidence report pointed out to the indicator decrease to 1 from 4 while it was expected no changes. Naturally, it will not stimulate the market to positive emotions within the pound.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD may show a positive trend. We suppose the pair will go to 1.5420 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5700.


Yen

The dollar fell against the yen after the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that the yen recent decline was "sharp" intensifying speculation about the BoJ possibility intervention to prevent the Japanese yen sharp decline which had previously reached the minimum level for 12.5 years against the US dollar amid expectations about the US and Japan central banks different monetary policy approaches as the Bank of Japan moved the dates for achieving the inflation target for fiscal 2016.

The central bank last meeting minutes showed that some participants worried that the inflation target would not be reached until 2017.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD/JPY may show a downward trend. We expect the 123.00 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 121.80.


Gold

Gold prices have not changed as investors are waiting for the US economic growth data publication in the first quarter after a series of the recent US economic data led to the dollar growth.

Trading recommendations

The nearest support is at the level of 1180.00. In its turn, the level breakthrough of 1180 may lead to the gold decline towards 1170.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №51 from 06/06/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The official data showed that the Germany industrial orders rose up by 1.4% in April, beating the growth expectations by 0.5%. The March indicator was revised to the growth by 1.1% to 0.9%.

The Non-Farms report came out higher than expected at the level of 228K.

The negative factor for the euro is still the situation in Greece. Greece appealed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and proposed to merge the four payments that country has to submit the fund in June and to pay the entire amount at the end of this month.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR / USD may show a positive trend. The euro purchases are possible when the price reaches the level of 1.1350, the stop loss is at the level of 1.1240 and the take-profit is at the level of 1.1430.


Pound

The Bank of England kept the interest rates at the mark of 0.5% while the quantitative easing program at the level of 375 billion pounds and the bank did not give any comments. The US news background is empty, firstly, the pound will trade on expectations and then under the main news influence- the US employment data.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair GBP / USD may show a positive trend. The pound purchases are possible when the price reaches the level of 1.5440; the stop loss is at the level of 1.5310 and the take-profit is at the level of 1.5510.


Yen

The pair USD / JPY is above 125.00 as the market ignores the dollar decline against other currencies.
The pair cross-rate significant depreciation is problematic because the yen is under pressure amid the US and Japan different monetary policies. The newsflow showed the Japan leading economic indicators increase in April to 107.2 against 106.

The pair dynamics is affected by the US employment data which came out in line according to our expectations higher than expected – 228K. In addition, the pair is supported by the US Treasury bond yields increase. Thus, the 10year bond yields have increased by 1% to 2.388%.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD / JPY may show a positive trend. The yen purchases are possible when the price reaches the level of 124.60, the stop loss is at the level of 124.10 and the take-profit is at the level of 124. 124.90


Gold

The gold recovered from the area that it had reached the yesterday month low of 1172.40 that was set during the dollar growth that followed by the US labor market positive data release. The gold future prospects will be based on the NFP report. The report came out at the level of 228K higher than expected.

Trading recommendations

The former support at the level of 1180.00 is becoming an intermediate resistance now. In turn, the level of 1172 breakthrough may lead to the gold decline towards the levels of 1169.50 and 1159.40.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №52 from 13/06/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The Commerce Department reported that the US retail sales increased by 1.2% m/m in May 2015 that coincided with the analysts' forecasts. According to the revised data, sales rose up by 0.2% in April while it was previously reported the zero change. The retail sales rapid growth suggests the consumer sector recovery after a cautious beginning of the year.

The pair euro/dollar bear losses amid the new dollar purchases wave in anticipation of the Greece news. We should remind that the IMF representative said that there were serious disagreements on the most key issues and attempts to reduce them were not successful and therefore the fund delegation decided to break off negotiations and left Brussels. However, the pair increased at the end of the trades on Friday.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR/USD may show a positive dynamics. The price is likely to go downward to the level of 1.1320. Then the pair can decrease to 1.5000.


Pound

The pound rose up this week after the UK National Statistics Office reported that the industrial production volume rose up by 0.4%, exceeding the forecast increase by 0.1% after the revised upward rise by 0.6% in March.

Yesterday at the London session closing the spread was -37.3 basis points, such levels were observed the last time on March 31 when the pound was trading below the 49th figure against the dollar. However, traders reacted to the US positive statistics quite sluggish - hence demand for the dollar is low and therefore bulls tested the resistance level of 1.5550.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD may show a positive trend. The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5600. After breaking 1.5600 the buyers may go to 1.5800.


Yen

After the Japanese Central Bank governor Kuroda's verbal intervention about the undesirable further yen decline, it continues strengthening (it is declining, according to the pair USD/JPY schedule) despite the American stock market upward vertical growth.

The yen compensated its recent strengthening in some extent, caused by the Japan bank manager Kuroda's statement about the absence of the Japanese yen further prospects.

The Japanese Finance Minister Amari said that the markets misinterpreted the chief banker words. On Thursday the stock market growth caused the pressure on the yen that has led to the reduced demand for safe assets.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY may show a negative trend. We suppose the pair will go to 123.00 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.50.


Gold

The gold is consolidating after the latest failed growth attempt. The pressure on the gold price is caused by the dollar and the stock indices growth resumption which reduces demand for the safe assets.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1170.00, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1160.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №53 from 20/06/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The IMF is not going to make any concessions to Greece. Even with EU the fund has points of disagreement, it agreed to continue to lend to Greece only in the case of the European investors debt restructuring.

The LTRO program the ECB put 73.8 billion euros against the spring 97.8 billion. Still investors are more inclined to the bond yields sales by the ECB. The US jobless claims number amounted to 267K vs. 279K the previous week, the consumer prices index rose up 0.4% in May, the core index rose up by 0.1%. The the 1st quarter payments balance was better than expected: -113 000 000 000 to $ -116 000 000 000.

Trading recommendations

The pair EUR/USD may show a positive trend soon. The euro can grow to the resistance level of 1.1410. After breaking 1.1410 the buyers may go to 1.1500.



Pound

The US positive macroeconomic statistics is not able to overcome the majors' inertial increase against the dollar. The euro showed increase by 23 points, the pound by 48 points. The pound growth contributed to the May retail sales good data: 0.2% against the expected 0.0%.

Obviously, in anticipation of the weekend and because of the strong resistance levels presence the British pound suspended its growth against the dollar and the Friday session it was trading in the side range with a tendency for decrease within the correction.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD may show a positive trend in the short term. The pound needs to break above 1.5910 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.6000 will be opened after this breakthrough.


Yen

Over the past four days the Japanese yen has been contrary to the American stock market amid the previous weak economic data and in anticipation of the Bank of Japan meeting. We should note that the Japan stock market has been declining for four days. Only on Friday the Nikkei225 rose up by 0.67%, it was unable to withstand the preceding Dow Jones growth by 1.0%. The activity index in all economic sectors (All Industries Activity) for April showed increase by only 0.1% against the growth forecast by 0.3%. On Friday there was held a press conference by the Central Bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The Bank of Japan left the monetary policy unchanged.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair of USD / JPY will show a negative trend. We recommend going short with the first target – 122.50. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 121.00.


Gold

Yesterday the gold consolidated after its growth that was prompted by speculations about the Greece debt situation. The EU Luxembourg finance ministers meeting brought no agreement with Greece. At the same time the ECB informed the Euro group that it was not sure that Greek banks would be opened on Monday, the EU spokesman Disselblum said that it was impossible to reach an agreement with Greece until the end of the month.

Trading recommendations

The gold is trading around 1200.00. We advise to consider long positions with the first target – 1220.00. After fixing above the first target, the level 1230.00 will become the next one.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №54 from 27/06/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The euro zone finance ministers third meeting was dedicated to Greece, unfortunately it did not bring results. The next negotiations are scheduled for Saturday, and Greece will again try to agree on getting new loans to the IMF on Tuesday to pay 1.6 billion euro.

Events associated with Greece overshadowed the US economic statistics from which the Fed raising interest rates depend. The May USA consumer spending report growth has been the highest in nearly six years.

Trading recommendations

In the short term, the EUR/USD may show a positive trend. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1200, 1.1500.


Pound

On Thursday, the Eurogroup summit ended without results and high officials have decided to continue the debate on Saturday.

The June UK retail sales balance fell from 51 to 29 while we expected 32, the pound has managed to grow for a day on 39 points.

The news background is filled with the political component, the market is looking forward to M.Karni report at the conference in London. It is expected that the BoE chief to address the issues relating to the interest rates growth. We predict the volatility increase, otherwise the "cable" may continue to consolidate, waiting for Greece situation overcome.

Trading recommendations

The GBP / USD may show a positive trend. We advise to long with the first target – 1.5800. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.6000.


Yen

The dollar fell against the yen after upbeat economic data in Japan, while concerns about the Greek talks support the demand for the Japanese currency as a safe haven.

The official data earlier showed that household spending rose 2.4% last month, surpassing expectations for growth of 2.2%, after falling in April by 5.5%. The separate report showed that consumer prices rose in May to an annual rate of 0.5%, more than the expected growth of 0.4%, after increasing 0.6% the previous month.

Trading recommendations

In the short term, the currency USD / JPY may show a positive trend. After the resistance level of 124.20 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 126.00 will be opened.


Gold

The gold prices fell as the encouraging US data continued to support the dollar, while the markets focused on the Greek negotiations.

Trading recommendations

Futures are likely to receive resistance at the 1180.00. In the case of its break upwards the quotes may grow to 1200.00.


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