Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The week beginning was not successful for the US dollar. The US dollar fell against GBP and EUR, still it recorded quite insignificant "profit" against JPY. There was published the US economy important statistics and, probably, the US dollar decline can be related to the technical factors as well as to the grown doubts that the Fed will begin the policy tightening next month.

The euro sharp rise helped the deputy chairman S. Fisher comments. He said that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in September while it is low inflation. The US Federal Reserve representative D. Lockhart also mentioned in his speech about the low inflation.

In response to these statements the dollar sharply fell down along the whole fronts. The pair EUR/USD and the pair GBP/USD have increased. Only the pair USD/JPY showed the dollar’s growth.

The fact is that the market considered the possibility of the Fed September rate hike almost as a settled issue. Now, when Lockhart excluded the word "September" from his rhetoric, the event no longer looks so certain. It is likely that the Friday's Fed data also influenced it. In any case, it would mean at least the dollar temporary weakening against most of its competitors.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The difference between the ECB and the Fed policy directions remains the main medium-term driver for the pair. The July Italy CPI was published which was expected to 0.2 y/y and -0.1 m/m. In fact, the data has not changed, confirming the traders’ forecasts. The ZEW Institute German current economic environment index was in the center of our attention. In August, the figure is expected to reach 64.5 against 63.9. In fact the data came out at the level of 65.7.

It is noted the resistance level of 1.1050 to be tested. The bulls failed to break it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

According to the BRC, the UK retail sales in the same stores fell by 1.2% y/y vs. 1.8% y/y in July. It was expected a decline by 1.0%. The UK average wage reports for June are of great interest as well as July jobless claims number changes for July. The news output is expected on Wednesday.

It was the resistance level of 1.5550 breakthrough within the pair GBP/USD. The pair is consolidating.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese economic data showed positive changes in the money supply – the M2 aggregate in July increased to 4.1% y/y vs. 3.9% y/y in June and the M3 aggregate rose up to 3.3% y/y from 3.2% y/y. The equipment orders dynamics was less encouraging – it was recorded 1.6% y/y in July against 6.6 y/y in the previous period.

It is noted the pair USD/JPY growth after the rebound from the support level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 125.50 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 127.00 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The China Central Bank's decision was the main event that devalued the yuan. The US currency strengthened against all the major opponents in the light of this, still it was not able to keep the leading position.

The message that Greeks have reached an agreement with creditors and will receive assistance in the framework of the regular lending program caused European majors quite full-scale purchases which led to the US dollar decline against the euro to the end of the session and in the dispute with the pound.

The China’s decision to devalue the yuan has put pressure on the pound as it was considered it would be able to strengthen the disinflation pressure in the UK and to extend the low inflation period in the United Kingdom which leads to the raising rates transfer at a later date.

The measures taken by China have put pressure on the Japanese currency as well. Another reason to sell the yen was the Japan Prime Minister advisors E. Honda’s statements who said that if the expected GDP data pointed to the sharp decline in the second quarter there would be a need to deploy a new fiscal stimulus.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

According to the Bank of France, the France payments balance current account surplus has grown for June due to the foreign trade deficit reduction. The payments balance current account surplus amounted to 1 billion euro against 200 million euro in May. The trade deficit fell to 1 billion euro from 1.7 billion euro in June.

The euro managed to break through above the key resistance level of 1.1050. Due to this resistance breakthrough, buyers got the way to the strong resistance level of 1.1150 that was also broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1450.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Taking into account bonuses, the UK average wage fell to 2.4% in June against the earlier 3.2%, but it was expected a decline to 2.8%. The number of jobless claims further declined than expected: -4.9K vs. 1.5K. The debate figure was revised downwards from 7.0K to 0.2K. The unemployment rate has not changed and confirmed the forecasts - 5.6%.

Buyers corrected the price to the level of 1.5610 on the low volumes. It was expected the given level testing but bulls did not test it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 1.5670, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.5775 and 1.5950.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan monetary policy meeting minutes were published in the Asian session on Tuesday. We received the industrial production positive results, the industrial production volume increased to 1.1% m/m which is higher than the growth expectations up to 0.8%. The service sector business activity index came out better than expected: 0.3% m/m against the growth expectations up to 0.1% m/m while the index was -0.7% m/m last month.

The price consolidated above the support level of 124.30. However the pair fell below this level amid the weakened dollar. Now the mark of 124.30 is playing the role of a strong resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 123.50. the next target is the level of 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar got under strong pressure on its main opponents’ part this week it had fallen against the euro, the pound and the yen. The reason was the optimism decline about the US rapid rate hike amid the Chinese yuan decline that continued to fall after its devaluation.

The pair EUR/USD raised slightly amid the European stock exchanges sales. Investors closed their long positions on the equity markets and transferred it to the bond market which supported demand for the euro. After a decrease the pair grew by the end of the trades.

By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had increased amid the oil prices stabilization. The US Energy Department has reported the crude oil reserves reduction for the third consecutive week that contributed to the Brent brand consolidation. After an increase the pound also consolidated.

The rapidly growing opinions about the US rapid rate hike illusory prospects drove down the pair dollar / yen. The Japanese currency strengthened in the last session against the US dollar. However, the US dollar was able to neutralize some of the losses by the end of the trades with the changes support in the US government debt market where the "Treasuries" prices declined slightly after the initial growth. However, the pair closed the yesterday’s trades closed with the pair’s decrease.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

According to the July final report the consumer price index increased by 0.2%. A month earlier the index value has decreased by 0.1%. These figures coincide with the analysts’ forecast. The France consumer price index decreased by 0.4% in July compared with the previous month after a decline by 0.1% a month earlier. These figures coincide with the analysts’ forecasts.

According to the forecasts, the US jobless claims had to remain unchanged and fix 270 thousand claims. The data came out at the level of 274 thousand.

The upward trend reversed towards the correction. The correctional price reduction was on the low volumes. The pair fell below the support level of 1.1150, but then it increased again.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1150. After breaking 1.1150 the buyers may go to 1.1260.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The «UK housing prices balance indicator by RICS» rose more than expected for the last month. According to the report prepared by the British Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the indicator (given to the seasonal fluctuations) was 44% compared with 40% the previous month. Experts expected the rate growth for the last month to 42%.

The United States provided the retail sales important data in July and the number of initial jobless claims. The retail sales data in July increased by 0,6% and the initial jobless claims came out less by 4 000 the forecasted median.

Buyers have broken through and consolidated above the level of 1.5550. The level breakthrough was on the low volumes, but it opened the way for the resistance level of 1.5670. Then the pair rebounded downwards and formed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.5670, 1.5775.

[0:06:03] Валдис Петрис:

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan economic showed the machinery and equipment orders reduction by 7.9% m/m in June while the strongest decline was forecasted - by 6.5% m/m. However, it did not affect the market.

We did not expect the US retail sales publication better than the consensus forecast. The initial jobless claims report was expected unchanged at the level of 270K. The release showed 274K.

The pair USD/JPY is showing a technical recovery from the minimum when the dollar turned downwards and fell against other major currencies. However, the trades are below the key resistance of 125.50.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 125.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 123.50 and 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar index has fallen amid the Treasury bond yields sharp decline in connection with speculations, concerning the China measures on the yuan devaluation decline that will lead to the «deflation exports" that will force the Fed to postpone interest rates increase at least until December. According to the data, the Switzerland import and producer price index weakened by -0.1% m/m in June to -0.3% m/m in July and from -6.1% y/y to -6.4% y/y.

Investors focused their attention on the jobless claims report which is expected to reach the level of 270,000 but the data showed a growth to 274,000.

The continued price consolidation below the resistance level of 0.9850 was followed by an active decline by more than 200 points. The prices declined to the support near 0.9750. then the pair rebounded upwards and broke through this level upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 0.9540 may lead to a price rebound upwards.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a multidirectional movement in the currency market. The chief troublemaker was the China Central Bank, it did not give any reason for the emotions surge and set the daily yuan fixing against the dollar almost without changes compared with the previous day, it has made it clear that the bank keeps to its stabilization promises.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the weak France, Germany and the Eurozone GDP data. The Eurozone and its major countries GDP assessment showed a growth, but it was worse than forecasted. The euro was supported by the Greece policy information plan.

the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the UK and the US negative bond yields decline. In addition, the impression was caused by the UK controversial employment report somewhat blunted and the pound rose up against the US dollar in the news absence that can add negativity. However the pair’s growth was short-term and the pair fell by the end of the day.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the investors escape from the carry trade transactions which supported the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The Japan stock market has declined that slightly increased interest to the yen, the US shares increase allowed the dollar only to neutralize some of the losses.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The EU published its June trade balance. The data came out at the level of 26.4B.

The German 10-year bond yields are declining relative to their US, UK and Australian counterparts, making European assets less attractive to investors.

The resistance level of 1.1150 was tested twice last week. The repeated level of 1.1130 testing was followed by the active prices decline with the following bullish trend reversal. The pair is trading around the support level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1150, 1.1260.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The June UK weak labor market raise doubts on the monetary tightening prospects by the Bank of England in 2016. The UK unemployment rate in the second quarter rose up by 0.1% while the US unemployment rate has decreased by 0.2%.

The September USA rate hike expectations are intensified amid the positive economic data. In addition, the dollar is supported by the oil prices decline.

The resistance level of 1.5670 testing was followed by the pair rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the consolidation around the support level of 1.5550 further on we expect a growth to 1.5670, 1.5775.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar enjoyed a moderate demand - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trade at the mark of 96.83. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the Brent oil decrease which in its turn reduced the euro area inflation expectations. The pair GBP/USD had decreased by the end of the day amid the UK and the US bond yields increase. The pair USD/JPY has strengthened after the Japan GDP weak data output. The economic growth fell by 0.4% in the second quarter.

There was important statistics published. The UK consumer price inflation rose up by 0.1% in July compared to 0.0% in June and it was forecasted 0.0%. The United States published the building permits volume report for July at the level of 1.119 M (the previous value was 1.337M; it was forecasted 1.232M).

Investors should pay attention to the fact that the situation with the US federal budget deficit continues to improve year by year. The United States are fully committed to the budget deficit reduction. By the end of the financial year 2014/2015 is one month and a half. Over the past ten months the US budget deficit (seasonally correcting) has been $428 billion from October to July inclusively against $460 billion in the same period last year (-7% y/y). It is a supporting factor for the US dollar.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell against the US dollar. Earlier there was the US and Germany 10-year bond yields reduction which is a positive factor for the single European currency. It was indicated the price moderate growth as the oil "bearish" trend does not allow the EUR/USD "bulls" to rise too high.

Sellers have rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1150, thus opening the way for the level of 1.1050 testing. The downward correction is not supported by volumes and it is developing amid the weak volatility. However the bears broke through the level of 1.1050 downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 1.0925. After fixing below the first target, the level 1.0790 will become the next one. Then the pair can decrease to the level of 1.0670.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The main event of the day was the UK CPI publication. The inflation is traditionally indicator №1 for the currency market and in this regard, there was an increased volatility.

More than a month the resistance level of 1.5670 has been holding back buyers. The price tested this level again on the yesterday’s trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5775, 1.5970.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese and the US stock indices have grown, pointing out to the risk appetite increase. It supported the US currency and the US dollar solidly strengthened against all of its major opponents by the end of the day. The additional factor that increased the dollar popularity was the US economic data. The dollar index basket closed the trades at the mark of 95.21.

Two key factors contributed to the dollar growth. Firstly, the durable goods orders release was better than the consensus forecast - sales increased by 2% in July while traders expected decrease by 0.5%.

Secondly, there are positive factors in the debt market. During the day the US Treasury 10-years bond yields were increasing steadily upwards that contributed to the channel capital inflow into the US assets and ultimately it supported demand for the dollar.

Against this background, the EUR/USD pair trades ended with the quotations decrease; the pair GBP/USD had declined by the end of the day and the USD/JPY had strengthened.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the German and the US negative government bond yields increased by 6 basis points. In addition, there was the second quarter US GDP second assessment published which was expected within the forecasted medians. As well as the number of jobless claims weekly report that was expected 274K against the previous 277K. the data came out at the level of 271K.

The euro sharp growth against the dollar was replaced by the no less sharp downward correction. The signal for the correction continuation served the levels of 1.1420 and 1.1260 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1420.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential targets are 1.1150 and 1.1050. If the price grows it will get to 1.1420.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields are declining relative to the US counterparts. In addition, the moderately positive macroeconomic data output supported the demand for the dollar. The initial jobless claims were expected with decline to 274 000 against the previous 277 000. The release showed a decrease to 271 000.

The strong support level of 1.5640 has been broken through downwards. The price decline was stopped at the support of 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5390 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5200.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Panic sales in the world leading stock markets have stopped. Against this background, investors’ escape from the carry trade transactions has practically stopped. In this context, the "safe assets" such as gold and the Japanese yen were not in demand.

The second quarter US GDP second assessment can be revised in the positive direction against the strong macroeconomic releases. The number of jobless claims was expected to 274K against the previous 277K. In fact there was 271K.

The US dollar partially returned positions against the yen. The pair is going upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 120.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

Switzerland presented the report, indicating the country industrial orders volume in the second quarter: -2.4% vs. -4.8 which have been revised from -0.9%.

The Commerce Department revised the durable goods orders data for June upwards (to + 4.1% from 3.4%) which improved GDP growth economists’ forecasts in the second quarter.

The dollar sharp decline against the franc was stopped at the support level of 0.9280, but then it turned up towards the correction. The dollar reached the resistance of 0.9650.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9650. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the levels of 0.9750, 0.9850.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

31.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The American currency continued its winning streak at the end of the week – the dollar index basket closed the trades at the mark of 95.81. The Japanese, European and the US stock indices growth have added arguments for the concerns reduction about the world economic growth, but the US GDP strong data and other indicators increased the demand for the US dollar which further strengthened against major opponents. The second quarter US GDP second estimate was revised in the positive direction by 1.4% to the level of 3.7%. The US jobless claims number has declined by 6 thousand for the last week. Positive economic data once again led investors to think about the federal funds rate increase at the FOMC September meeting.

There was the world leading stock markets moderate demand during the day which also put pressure on the funding currencies that are the euro and the Japanese yen. In this context, the US currency enjoyed confident demand against its major competitors. As a result, the EUR/USD pair has finished the trading day with the price decrease, the pair GBP/USD had declined by the end of the day and the USD/JPY had increased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was again the Germany and the US negative bond yields which makes investments in the US assets attractive. Investors are studying the Germany inflation data. The CPI increased to 0,0% from 0,2% that was earlier.

The euro corrective decrease reached the strong support level of 1.1260 that was broken downwards. The small rebound upwards was formed. The resistance level of 1.1260retesting was followed by the rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1420.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1150, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.1050 and 1.0925.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistics Office published the second GDP estimate for the second quarter. Most of macroeconomic releases pointed to the fact that there will not be revision in the positive direction, as the unemployment in the second quarter has grown by 0.1%. On the other hand, the United States revised the first GDP estimate by 1.4%.

Sellers have broken through two strong support levels of 1.5460, 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5300 for a steady downward movement. The way to the marks 1.5200, 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan retail sales rose by 1.6% y/y in July, still the growth by 1.1% y/y was expected. Last month the unemployment rate was 3.3%, which is 0.1% lower than in June and below economists' expectations by 3.4%. Household spending declined by 0.2 % in July with the price correction after a decrease by 2.0% in June. Economists had expected an increase by 1.0%.

The pair shows the dollar’s strengthening. The resistance level of 121.60 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target – 122.40. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level of 123.50.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss GDP for the second quarter increased by 0.2% q/q and rose up by 1.2% y/y. The data was better than economists' expectations by 0.1% q/q 0.8% y/y. The private consumption growth was 0.3%, investments in equipment + 1.5%, Swiss exports fell by 0.2% in the second quarter.

The US dollar is recovering its positions, reaching the strong resistance level of 0.9650. This level was short-term broken upwards then there was a rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9650. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The demand for the US dollar has been returning to the high levels amid the concerns about the further global economy reducing prospects. Another factor that supported the US dollar was a political component, mentioned in the Fed top management speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

The US currency finished the trades in the "red zone" - the dollar index basket closed the trades at the mark of 96.15. Traders continued to win back the US GDP strong data for the second quarter. The US two-year Treasury bond yields, reflecting the Fed rate expectations, fell to the level of 0.724%. Financial markets are beginning to "lay" the FOMC monetary policy tightening. The US GDP growth high rate indicates that it is unlikely to be the China strong economic slowdown. As the risks can be leveled, the US Federal Reserve can raise interest rates.

As a result, the EUR/USD pair finished the trading day with a decrease, the pair GBP/USD had declined as well and the USD/JPY had increased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US, Germany and the UK negative bond yields began to decline which traditionally causes demand for the euro. The leading stock markets showed weakness at the end of the last week which also supports the demand for the euro as a funding currency.

The downward correction stopped near the level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential targets are 1.1150 and 1.1050. If the price grows it will get to 1.1410.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK banks were closed on Monday. The Brent crude oil growth is increasing the UK energy sector revenues which are about 10% of GDP. On the other hand, the UK bond yields are declining relative to the US and Germany counterparts which levels the British assets investments attractiveness and restricts demand for the pound.

There was the support level of 1.5370 false breakthrough. The short level breakthrough on the lower volumes was followed by the price return above the level where a consolidation will be probably formed.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5300 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5200. In case of a pull back the pair may return to the level 1.5460.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

According to the Japanese industrial production volume has decreased contrary to our expectations last month. This indicator was 0.6% compared with 1.1% the previous month. Experts expected the growth rate to be 0.1% last month.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a growth, the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive area now. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 120.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20. Otherwise the price will grow to 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar declined against the yen amid the investors’ reaction to the stock market decline and the rates reduction against the currencies which are used to finance the carry trade. That day the debt market was quiet: the credit spreads remained practically unchanged compared with the last week closure.

The trade volume was relatively low because of the London market closure due to the holiday, but also because of the expectations about the US coming Friday August employment data which can indicate that the Fed would raise interest rates in September.

On Saturday the Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said in his statement that the US inflation would likely be growing in case from the dollar growth pressure decline which may allow the Fed to gradually raise rates.

It revived the idea that the Fed would start raising interest rates in September and helped the dollar growth against a range of currencies, including the pound and the franc.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the world leading stock markets showed weakness that is a positive factor for the single European currency. The carry trade transactions will contribute to the euro demand as a funding currency. The debt market dynamics starts sending the bullish signal for the dollar.

The Forex market analysis is showing that the price continues the weak upward correction. The resistance level of 1.1260 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1420, the next one is at 1.1530.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 1.1260. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The negative factor is the British currency revaluation against the euro that is its main trading partner. The British pound growth reduces the Old World products competitiveness. The oil prices decline supports the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.

The pound exchange rate began a new corrective movement round after an unsuccessful attempt to continue the downward trend. However the corrective movement was short-term. The pair rebounded downwards from the resistance level of 1.5390 and tested the support level of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 1.5200. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.5100.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese and the US negative bond yields grow that is a bullish factor for the dollar as they increase the investments attractiveness in the US assets. The world leading stock markets are showing their weakness that on the contrary will support demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

Analyzing the yen exchange rate we see that the price is decreasing. The support level of 120.40 was broken downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the sellers may go to 118.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro was not able to take advantage of the positive news background which indicates the absence of strong buyers in the market. The euro zone unemployment fell by 0.2% by the end of July, indicating an economic growth that is a positive factor for the currency. The ISM manufacturing sector indicator has showed the lowest value since May 2013 which is a negative signal for the Fed. Despite these positive factors, the London sales ended with the euro decline which indicates the bears’ predominance in the market.

The pair GBP/USD has decreased. The British currency is showing weakness amid the fundamental factors. The debt market is also pessimistic about the British currency: the UK government bond yields declined significantly relative to its US and Germany counterparts. Nevertheless the pound strengthened by the end of the trades.

Earlier the pair USD/JPY has decreased. The world leading stock exchanges negative dynamics will contribute to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing which is a positive factor for the dollar. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly increased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The stock markets negative dynamics supported the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The US private sector ADP employment data was the highlight of the day. The ADP release was worse than the consensus forecast – the euro received a short-term support. The data came lower than expected 201 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 190 thousand.

Meanwhile the euro/ dollar pair continued its correction. However the pair could not fixate above the broken resistance level of 1.1260 and the trades closed below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1150 and 1.1050.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Euro zone and the UK bond yields have been increasing for five months in a row which is a negative factor for the UK economic growth. Yesterday the UK government bond yields declined significantly relative to their US and Germany counterparts. Markit Economics published the UK construction sector PMI index data.

The pair pound/dollar is trading under the pressure. The pair broke through the support level of 1.5300, but the pair closed the trades above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan, Germany and the US width indicator points out to the strong sellers’ presence in corporate securities. The exchange trading funds, investing in Emerging Markets, again noted the strong capital outflow that traditionally occurs in sales periods. On the other hand, the debt market points out to the investments attractiveness in US assets.

The pair dollar/ yen has tested the support level of 119.20 and increased to the resistance level of 120.40. The pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 119.20 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 118.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency was able to return some positions which had been lost the day before - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.85. There was the ADP private sector employment level report published. The August data did not meet the market expectations - the actual number of jobs, created in the private sector, amounted to 190 thousand against the forecasted 201 thousand. Nevertheless, traders chose to ignore the publication and continued to buy the US currency. The United States published the jobless claims weekly report. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 12 thousand having increased to 282 thousand.

The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the Germany and the US negative government bond yields. On Thursday investors focused their attention on the ECB decision on the monetary policy and on the Mario Draghi's press conference. The ECB kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.05%.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was within the flat. Investors took profits on the short positions after the six days downward movement. On Thursday investors study the August UK service sector business activity index. The index decreased to 55,6.

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid demand for the "risky assets". Nevertheless, then the pair decreased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German bond are declining relative to their US and the UK counterparts and the stock markets experienced moderate demand for corporate securities, thereby reducing demand for the euro as a funding currency. The ECB announced its monetary policy meeting results and according to them the rate will remain unchanged at the level of 0.05%.

The pair euro/dollar continues to trade in downward trend. The support level of 1.1150 was broken and the pair is under the pressure for reduction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK 10-year government bond yields are declining relative to their US counterparts that reduces the investments attractiveness in British assets and does not contribute to the UK national currency demand. The UK service sector business activity decreased contrary to the traders’ expectations and amounted to 55.6 compared with 57.4 the previous month.

The pair pound/dollar is under pressure now. The pair broke through the support level of 1.5300 and continues the downward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5200 and 1.5100.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The leading NASDAQ high-tech index indicates demand for the "risky assets" which is a negative factor for the "safe assets" that traditionally include the Japanese yen.

In addition, the US two year government bond yields increase which reflect expectations, concerning the Fed rate is also a positive factor for the dollar.

The pair dollar/yen was forming a growth structure. Having tested the resistance level of 120.40 the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 119.20. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 118.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar has grown against the Swiss franc amid the global stock markets fragile stabilization.

The pair dollar/franc continues its growth. The pair broke through the resistance level of 0.9650 and tested the level of 0.9750.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency did not continue its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.36. There was published the more important indicator showing the labor market current trends, namely the unemployment trend. It is Non-Farms. It was expected increase to 220,000 but the release showed the decrease to 173,000. Earlier the data was 245,000 from the revised 215,000.

The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the ECB negative macroeconomic forecasts. During the day investors actively sold out the European currency amid the too soft Mario Draghi comments. However the trades on Friday closed with the pair’s growth.

The pair GBP/USD declined after the UK PMI service sector weak data: 55.6 vs 57.4 earlier. The forecasted data was 57.6. The UK service sector business activity was lower than the predicted values, but the US data turned out to be much stronger. However, the dollar growth has been restrained because of the claims number weak data.

Only in relation to the Japanese yen, the dollar failed to increase. The pair USD/JPY has also finished the trades in the negative region amid the Japanese and the US government bond yields decline. It looks like the yen returned to its status as the "reserve currency" and now those traders invest their capital into the yen who do not want increased risks.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The debt market dynamics also points to the bearish trend development: the German government bond yields decreased relative to their US and the UK counterparts which reduce investments attractiveness into the European assets.

All investors' attention is focused on the US labor market publication. The unemployment index decreased to 5.1% from 5.3%. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came lower than expected 220 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 173thousand.

The pair euro/dollar is consolidating after the sharp decline. However the pair showed the growth and tested the resistance level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.1050 further on we expect a growth to 1.1260 where the pair rebound downwards.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK/US services sector indicators differential is increasing in favor of the latter, making it vulnerable to the British currency. There were sales in the product market again that will provide support to the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.

The pair pound/dollar has completed the minimum reduction target. The support level of 1.5200 was broken downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4975.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the moderately positive dynamics in the stock markets and in this regard, investors do not need to direct their capital into the "safe haven" yen. Nom Farms were published. The data showed the decrease to 173K vs earlier 245K. The economist forecasted 220K.

The dollar/yen pair failed to develop the growth wave and is trading the decline. The support level of 119.20 was broken downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is at 117.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 118.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.80 will be opened.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The August consumer price index fell by 1.4% in annual terms after a decline by 1.3 % the previous month. Last change was in line with economists' expectations. On the month basis consumer prices fell by 0.2 % in August after the 0.6 % decline in July. The month decline was also expected.

The pair dollar/franc continues to grow. A consolidation was formed at the resistance level of 0.9750.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was volatile dynamics at the end of the last week. The main event was the US labor market data publication. This release results are always uneven. On the one hand, the Non-Farm index came out worse than the consensus forecast at the level of 173 thousand. On the other hand, the unemployment rate more rapidly reduced as well as the average earnings increased. The dollar came under pressure in recent weeks as the China slowing growth pace prompted investors to temper the first Fed rate increase expectations. The dollar has grown against the commodity currencies that were contributed partially by the oil prices decline.

At the beginning of the new week the euro has grown against the dollar; the pair EUR/USD has increased. Earlier the euro fell to the two-week low against the dollar after the European Central Bank pointed to the current program QE increase possibility and also lowered its growth and inflation forecast. The yen showed its decrease at the beginning of the trading week, the pair USD/JPY started the week with a growth, the pair GBP/USD has increased as well.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The trades were determined by the debt and equity markets dynamics. The US two-year bond yields, reflecting the Fed rate expectations are confidently growing that will support the demand for the dollar. On the contrary, the stock market is showing a negative trend which in turn is a positive factor for the euro as a funding currency.

The price started the weak upward correction. The resistance level o 1.1150 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050, 1.0925.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

There is the US and the UK credit spreads increase in the bond market which is a positive factor for the US currency. The commodity market also sends a negative signal to the British currency. The Brent crude oil bearish trend will put pressure on the pound, because the raw materials cost is denominated in the US currency. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the yesterday’s trades.

The price is correcting upwards. The pair broke upwards the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was a holiday in the United States on Monday and the financial markets were closed on the occasion of Labor Day. Last week there was negative dynamics on the world's leading stock exchanges where bearish sentiments prevailed. The moderate demand for the dollar was forecasted amid the US Treasury bond yields increase.

The price has also started the weak correction. The pair broke the level of 119.20 upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 118.40. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 117.80.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The trade volume was low during the Monday’s trades amid USA holiday. They have not published any important macroeconomic statistics. As a result, traders did not hurry to trade. On Tuesday the volatility increased on the market.

The euro showed mixed movements against the US dollar remaining in the narrow range with a growth amid the almost empty European calendar and the Labor Day celebration in the United States. The Germany and the euro zone statistics had a little impact. As it became known, the Germany industrial production rose up by 0.7 % in August, nearly offsetting the previous decline by 0.9 percent in June which was revised from -1.4 %. It has been the fastest growth till this year. However, it was slower than experts expected (one per cent).

The pound has significantly grown against the dollar, updating the Friday maximum. Analysts believe that happened due to the US currency sales resumption amid the weak trades.

The US dollar finished the trades with a growth against the yen having partially recovered amid the European and Japanese stock markets increase due to the risk appetite growth.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro area inflationary pressure has been practically absent from the year beginning and the further oil market sales will have deflationary impact on the economy. In addition, the US and Germany government bond yields are increasing that points out to the investments attractiveness in the US assets.

The price continues the price correction. The price is trading above the level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.1050. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.0925.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US unemployment rate has fallen by 0.5% since the beginning of this year while the UK unemployment rate has fallen by 0.1%. The Brent crude oil is below the psychological level of $ 50/barrel. Considering the negative fundamental background we expect new sales wave in the short term that will also support the US currency.

Meanwhile the pound exchange rate fixated above the critical line 1.5200. The pair showed a strong growth and broke through the level of 1.5300. the level of 1.5390 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5460 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5550 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The stock markets sales increased the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The second quarter Japanese gross domestic product fell to -0.3% which is higher than economists' expectations by -0.4%. The GDP declined by 1.2% on the annualized basis compared to the previous three months in the period from April to June and it was also higher than the forecast by -1.8%.

The price is still correcting. The pair tested the support level of 119.20 and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 119.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency has slightly strengthened after it lost its positions against its main competitors earlier - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.92. The US labor market mixed data failed to convince investors that the economy was strong enough to hike the interest rates at the September meeting. Some investors also believe that the labor market instability and the China economy uncertainty will force the Fed to wait until the end of the year to tighten the monetary policy.

The pair EUR/USD decreased. Earlier the pair has strengthened amid the euro zone GDP second quarter positive report. Some analytics believe that the GDP increased by 0.4% is better than expected 0.1%.

The GBP/USD pair has strengthened amid the Brent oil growth. The pound has substantially grown against the US currency amid the risk appetite recovery. The GBP/USD was also supported by the stock markets growth. Nevertheless, the pair closed the trades with a decrease.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trades in the "green zone". Demand for the risky assets put pressure on the "safe haven" yen.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The demand for the “risky assets" is a negative factor for the euro. In addition, the bond market is sending negative signals for bulls. The US and German 10-year government bond yields are increasing that reduces the European assets investments’ attractiveness and do not support the demand for the euro.

The pair’s corrective movement stopped. The pair rebounded downwards and tested the support level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.0925.

Pound (JPY)

General overview

The UK trade deficit increased more than expected in July that amounted to 11.08 billion pounds from 8.51 billion pounds the previous month. Experts expected that the trade deficit would increase to 9.30 billion pounds. The last month UK manufacturing production volume (m/m) has decreased contrary to expectations, reaching 0.8% compared with 0.2% the previous month. Experts expected the growth rate by 0.2% for the last month.

The pound rate stopped not so strong upward movement. After a short-term consolidation at the resistance level of 1.5390 the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5460, the next one is the level of 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan and the US government bond yields show the moderate increase which plays into the bulls’ hands. If the risk appetite keeps growing the Japanese yen may show weakness as a funding currency.

We cannot ignore the US two-year Treasury bonds growth which reflects expectations for the Fed interest rates.

The price continues its upward correction. The bears broke through the resistance level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 121.60 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 122.40 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency has slightly strengthened after it lost its positions against its main competitors earlier - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.92. The US labor market mixed data failed to convince investors that the economy was strong enough to hike the interest rates at the September meeting. Some investors also believe that the labor market instability and the China economy uncertainty will force the Fed to wait until the end of the year to tighten the monetary policy.

The pair EUR/USD decreased. Earlier the pair has strengthened amid the euro zone GDP second quarter positive report. Some analytics believe that the GDP increased by 0.4% is better than expected 0.1%.

The GBP/USD pair has strengthened amid the Brent oil growth. The pound has substantially grown against the US currency amid the risk appetite recovery. The GBP/USD was also supported by the stock markets growth. Nevertheless, the pair closed the trades with a decrease.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trades in the "green zone". Demand for the risky assets put pressure on the "safe haven" yen.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The demand for the “risky assets" is a negative factor for the euro. In addition, the bond market is sending negative signals for bulls. The US and German 10-year government bond yields are increasing that reduces the European assets investments’ attractiveness and do not support the demand for the euro.

The pair’s corrective movement stopped. The pair rebounded downwards and tested the support level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.0925.

Pound (JPY)

General overview

The UK trade deficit increased more than expected in July that amounted to 11.08 billion pounds from 8.51 billion pounds the previous month. Experts expected that the trade deficit would increase to 9.30 billion pounds. The last month UK manufacturing production volume (m/m) has decreased contrary to expectations, reaching 0.8% compared with 0.2% the previous month. Experts expected the growth rate by 0.2% for the last month.

The pound rate stopped not so strong upward movement. After a short-term consolidation at the resistance level of 1.5390 the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5460, the next one is the level of 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan and the US government bond yields show the moderate increase which plays into the bulls’ hands. If the risk appetite keeps growing the Japanese yen may show weakness as a funding currency.

We cannot ignore the US two-year Treasury bonds growth which reflects expectations for the Fed interest rates.

The price continues its upward correction. The bears broke through the resistance level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 121.60 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 122.40 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar lost the early earned positions. Meanwhile, traders turn their attention to the Fed monetary policy meeting which will be held on September 16-17. The dollar growth against the major currencies was caused by the expectations, concerning the Bank of China new monetary easing measures. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 6 thousand having fallen to 275 thousand.

During the day the pair EUR/USD was in the flat amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. However, the pair increased by the end of the trades.

The pair GBP/USD had decreased. The weak economic statistics was published: the industrial production fell in August while the trade deficit has grown. On Thursday traders drew their attention to the Bank of England meeting and its minutes. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.

The pair USD/JPY decreased after the powerful growth in the Tokyo stock market. Then the pair showed a flat. The Japan Nikkei index showed the biggest session growth after the China Finance Ministry stated that it intended to implement fresh measures to stimulate the economic growth.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The "risk appetite" growth among investors put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The Germany and the US negative government bond yields are increasing that supported the demand for the dollar. Now the other hand, investors are taking a wait and see attitude in anticipation of the Fed meeting. Nevertheless, the euro increased by the end of the trades.

The euro is showing that now the movement strengthened. The euro grew and the resistance leve of 1.1260 was broken through upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1325. After breaking 1.1325 the buyers may go to 1.1410.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The main event of the day was the Bank of England monetary policy meeting results. The debt market is also sending a negative signal: the UK and the US negative government bond yields are increasing that reduces the British assets investments’ attractiveness. However, after the decrease the pound strengthened.

The pair showed a strong growth and broke through the resistance level of 1.5390 and tested the level of 1.5460.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5550 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5670.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The world leading stock markets growth put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The United States published the jobless claims release. The data showed the decrease by 6 000. It is impossible to ignore the commodity market sales.

The oil, gold, copper, platinum and other commodities quotations fell very much which is a positive factor for the dollar as the raw materials cost is denominated in US currency.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair USD/CHF has fallen. The UK presented the initial jobless claims report: there was expected 275K while earlier it was expected 282K. The data came out at the forecasted median. Investors are taking a wait and see attitude in anticipation of the Fed meeting. The American monetary regulator will announce its interest rates decision just in a week.

The pair dollar/franc is again correcting. The support level of 0.9750 was broken through downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency showed weakness against its major counterparts - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.49. The Labor Department published the initial jobless claims report, the numbers fell by 6,000 and reached 275,000 with the seasonal correction. Economists expected 275,000 initial claims.

The pair EUR/USD increased amid the European stock exchanges decrease. The dollar significantly depreciated against the euro which was caused by the US mixed statistics.

The pair GBP/USD strengthened amid the UK government bond yields relative to their US counterparts. The pound markedly rose against the US dollar, having reached the two-week low at the same time that was caused by the Central Bank of England meeting results and the subsequent statements. As expected, during the meeting the BoE MPC members voted to keep the interest rates at the level of 0.5%. However, the week closed with the pair rebound downwards.

The USD/JPY was in a flat amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. The yen fell slightly despite the Japanese manufacturing sector large enterprises sentiment positive data.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The world leading markets instability influences to the single European currency. The world leading stock indicators do not show a steady upward trend. Last week the European stock indicators decreased more than by 1%. The US indicators showed a growth on the contrary. The high-tech sector was in leaders which traditionally indicates the demand for the “risky assets".

The euro/dollar is growing. The pair rebounded upwards from the support level of 1.1260 and the resistance level of 1.1325 break through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1410, the next one is at 1.1530.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1410. After breaking 1.1410 the buyers may go to 1.1530 and then towards to the level of 1.1590.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British currency has been ignoring the negative news for two trading days which indicates the strong buyers’ presence. The UK government bond yields increased relative to their US and Germany counterparts which contributes to the capital flow into the UK assets.

The pair pound/dollar continued its upwards consolidation. After the resistance level of 1.5460 testing the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5460, the next one is the mark of 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The world leading stock markets do not give strong signals on the purchase and sale. In this regard, now it becomes clear whether investors open the carry trade operations or close them. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing in favor of the US dollar. The US producer prices index was published. It was assumed that the negative data would put pressure on the US currency.

The pair dollar/yen continues to stay in the consolidation. The pair is trading above the support level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 120.40 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 121.60, 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US dollar is declining against the euro amid the weakening expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase the rate at the September meeting. The US producers’ prices index was expected to decrease in August by 0.1% compared with the previous month and will fall by 0.9% compared to last year August. The expectations concerning the producer prices and consumer confidence decline deepen the doubts that the Fed will raise interest rates in September.

The pair dollar/franc continues to trade in a narrow range. By the end of the week the pair rebounded downwards from the resistance level of 0.9750. We believe that is a correction.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.