Market news from HiWayFX

[HiWayFX]

US Stocks Tap All-Time Highs-Measure Move Targets for S&P 500

Futures on the S&P 500 index touched all-time highs today of 2120.50.

The feeling seems to be that high interest rates in the near future are not all that bad for markets.

Additionally, the historical correlation between US stocks and the Dollar has been positive, meaning that a stronger US Dollar means a stronger US stock market in the long term.

For further information, read more from our Webpage.

 

[HiWayFX]

Investors punish the US Dollar as economy shows signs of stalling.

The US Dollar is looking weaker as the weeks roll by and economic data from the world's largest economy continues to be weak.

There is no doubt that the US economy contracted in the first quarter, going by the recent weak data posted. There is no doubt that a June rate hike is definitely off the table, unless we get to see a miraculous turnaround for May and June, and that includes a stronger jobs report (similar to what we saw during the first quarter of this year) and an overall pickup in retail sales and more importantly inflation.

But this scenario looks a bit farfetched and in the longer perspective, the current decline in the Greenback could possibly be attributed to the markets pricing in no rate cut in June.

Read full article from our webpage.

 

[HiWayFX]

The Biggest Short Ever Probably Signals a Bottom for Euro

The Biggest Short Ever Probably Signals a Bottom for Euro.

It turns out everyone was horribly wrong about the Euro collapsing (yet again). Deflation never came, the economy in the US sputtered, and the economy in the EU seems to have recovered.

It is true that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates probably even before the ECB tapers its bond buying, but the market is in consensus that even with rate rises, they will be very slow and take very long.

For further information, read more from our Webpage.

 

[HiWayFX]

Markets get a reminder of monetary policy divergence.

Setting aside all other factors, one major theme that stands out from last week has been the Central Banker talk.

Governors of major Central Banks across the US, Canada, Europe and Japan took turns to remind the markets about their respective monetary policies as the spotlight turned on them.

Read from our Webpage for further information about this article.

 

[HiWayFX]

It's Crunch Time for the Euro

As the month of May winds up to a close, the months ahead, especially June and July could prove to be quite some decisive months as far as the single currency, the Euro is concerned.

With the US Dollar poised to make a comeback after what looks like a reasonable correction to the trend, the strength of the Greenback, combined with the Greece crisis showing no signs of abating and with huge dues to be repaid to the IMF in the coming months, the Euro could well see some volatility in the summer months ahead.

Read more from our Webpage.

 

[HiWayFX]

Staying Hands-Off the Euro Until More Clarity from Greece

The technical picture for EUR/USD is currently a toss-up, with the currency likely to go either up or down with both having a 50% chance. The same picture is reflected in the talks between Greece and it’s creditors as it’s mostly a 50-50 chance that there will be any agreement for Greece to get rescue funds before Wednesday, when Greece must make a large repayment to the IMF.

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[HiWayFX]

Draghi Tells Us to Get Used to the Volatility

There were all kinds of big moves in the bond markets and Forex yesterday after Draghi’s press conference. The ECB left rates unchanged but it’s what the bank’s president said after the interest rate decision that moved markets.

According to Draghi, some of the causes of volatility have been;
• Improving growth prospects
• Higher inflation expectations
• “Technical conditions” such as poor liquidity

The EUR/USD pair has been making swift moves from one technical level to the next, making almost mechanical pullbacks for buyers to step in. We want to take advantage of this and look for new highs. The next major area of resistance is between 1.1430 and 1.1550. Above this zone it’s thin air until the 1.20s, so it should move fast if we go above there.

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[HiWayFX]

The Only Chart You Need to See for EUR/USD Trading

Why is the EUR/USD pair still going up?

This chart shows the exact reason, and why it will probably continue.

Read more https://goo.gl/YhBDu6

 

[HiWayFX]

German Bund Yield Pulls Back as Euro Consolidates

We've shown you the main reason for strength in the EUR/USD currency pair previously, and we're starting to see signs of consolidation in both markets.
The Euro remains largely directionless since May, and right now we're trading right where we were on the first of May. All of this makes sense because of the looming uncertainty of the Greek debt drama; the market has no reason to move hard until it ends - sometime at the end of June.

The yield on German Bunds has also retreated in relation to it's counterpart US Treasury Bonds and we've seen that this correlation is very strong with the EUR/USD. The following chart shows that the Bund-Treasury spread has gone up faster than the EUR/USD exchange rate, signalling that the market might be ready to move higher at the end of this Greek drama.

Source: DTN, HiWayFX

There are a couple of reasons to take the contrarian view that the Euro will rise even in the face of the Greek debt crisis. Some European asset managers are ready to buy regardless of the outcome. The thinking is that even if Greece defaults or exits the Eurozone, then essentially the crisis will finally give way to the strong fundamentals of the Euro economy. Basically any decline in Euro would be a buying opportunity.

This correlation chart seems to support that view.

 

[HiWayFX]

While the markets focus on Fed, the Sterling steadily rallies

Last week, the FOMC meeting showed that the Fed was on track for a rate hike in 2015. Of course, the meeting was not as straight forward with a lot of variables in play. Questions still remain as to the number of rate hikes as well as by how much the Fed would hike the interest rates. The markets shifted attention to the Fed's Staff Economic Projections or SEP, where the FOMC members lowered the GDP for the year while expecting to see a higher unemployment rate. The FOMC projections left inflation unchanged. With a dovish-neutral outlook the US Dollar turned weaker across the board before managing to stabilize and trim some of its losses.

Read more https://goo.gl/4G6vfQ

 

[HiWayFX]

USD/JPY Advance Provides Better Trading Opportunities

With the EUR/USD market looking like a seeming pinball game with no direction, decoupled from fundamentals, and little technical sense, traders have been wondering where to go in the Forex market for "normal" trading; something that we haven't seen since 2014 and before in EUR/USD, but which is more or less intact in USD/JPY.

The strong uptrend in USD/JPY has been going since 2012. Now, even though markets have a tendency to turn against you the longer they've been trading in one pattern, it's not necessary to just blindly buy USD/JPY expecting gains any time. The reason why we like USD/JPY is because of the orderly patterns it trades in while it has been in it's uptrend. The periods where it's actually going up are relatively short. Between this, there are long periods of stead range trading, giving the opportunity to play the edges.

In the daily chart above, we can see that the regular consolidation patterns give way to strong up moves.

The current consolidation seems to have the best support level at 122.50 and resistance at 125 and 124.50. With just these three levels, we could have good trade setups for months to come. The only thing required is patience and disciplined use of limit orders!

 

[HiWayFX]

Euro Panic Subsides, Downside Still Limited

One of the most important things to remember when trading Forex markets like the ones we're seeing now is to trade what you see.

That is, trade what you see on the charts and don't listen to what you hear in the media. If we took the media's word for it, then we probably would've been panicking like everyone else on Monday when they were touting the apocalypse-like situation in Greece and for the rest of the Eurozone. In reality, the EUR/USD market overreacted on Monday morning when it gapped down 170 pips. This wasn't a chance to jump on the bandwagon and sell sell sell; it was a quick buying opportunity.

Read more

 

[HiWayFX]

Forex Markets Likely to Have Major Gaps on Monday Open

After the last gap of 170 pips down this past Monday, we're expecting the same thing after Forex markets open in Australia on Monday.

The trouble with this kind of market is that it is a straight 50/50 bet, and it's only worth holding trades or trading on this news if you're a betting type of person. We take the view that there is no trade here, as it will only be clear what the next trade setups will be well into the London trading session on Monday.

Read more

 

[HiWayFX]

Market news By Hiwayfx

Technical Analysis
EURUSD
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.1016. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.1050/80. Immediate support is seen around 1.0965. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0900 area. Potential daily range today is seen between 1.1050 – 1.0900. My major technical outlook remains neutral but like I said yesterday, we might have some bullish run after bounced from 1.0820 key support.

Read More Click Here


Market Outlook
EUR / USD
The EUR declined 0.13% against the USD and closed at 1.0985.
EUR/USD rose sharply to remain on track for a positive week, as the potential for a Grexit from the euro became even more remote on Thursday after a critical Greek vote passed in Parliament during a late-night session.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.0929 and a fall through could take it to the next support level 1.0875.
The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1028, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1073 .

Read More Click Here

 

[HiWayFX]

Technical Analysis

EURUSD

The EURUSD failed to continue its bearish momentum last week after unable to make a clear break below 1.0820 key support. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.1050 and the trend line resistance area as you can see on my hourly chart below. Immediate support is seen around 1.0950. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0900 region. Potential daily range today is seen between 1.0950 – 1.1050.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD was indecisive last week. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As you can see on my H1 chart below, price is moving below the EMA 200 after formed a triple top formation suggests a bearish scenario with nearest target seen around 1.5420. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.5570. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.5650 region. Potential daily range today is seen between 1.5420 – 1.5570.

USDJPY

The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bearish bias testing 123.25. Immediate resistance is seen around 123.75. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 124.50 area. Potential daily range today is seen between 123.25 – 124.50.

USDCHF

The USDCHF was indecisive last week. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bearish bias testing 0.9540 support area. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9650. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 0.9700 or higher. Potential daily range today is seen between 0.9540 – 0.9650.

 

[HiWayFX]

Market news By Hiwayfx

EUR / USD

The EUR declined 0.15% against the USD and closed at 1.1060 .
The EUR/USD pair reversed a part of yesterday’s slide and edged higher in the mid-Asian trades, largely as the US dollar corrected lower after the recent strength. While the European currency also bounced versus its American counterpart as traders continued to digest the unexpected dive in the US consumer confidence, awaiting the outcome of the two-day Fed meeting due later in the US session.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1020 ,and a fall through could take it to the next support level 1.0980 .

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1100 , and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1140 .

GBP / USD
The GBP declined 0.01% against the USD and closed at 1.5615 .

GBP/USD pair surged to a fresh weekly high of 1.5627, with the Pound finding intraday demand after the release of the UK GDP figures for the second quarter of this 2015.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.5549, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5486 .

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5652 ,and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.5692.

AUD / USD
The AUD Declined 0.10% against the USD and closed at 0.7337 .

The bid tone surrounding the AUD/USD pair remains intact in the Asian morning, now pushing the Aussie towards 0.7350 – key levels as broad based US dollar softness paired with stabilizing commodities prices continue to boost the AUD bulls.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7278.and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7219.

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7372, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7407.

USD / JPY
The USD decline 0.11% against the JPY and closed at 123.57 .

USD/JPY reversed previous gains and fell into the negative territory in the mid-Asian session, as the Japanese currency enjoys stronger than expected Japanese retail sales numbers while the greenback edged lower on profit-taking after the recent strength.

The pair is expected to find support at 123.13, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 122.70.

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 123.90, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 124.24.

XAU / USD
Gold Declined 0% against the USD at 1,096.70 .

Gold prices eased in Asia early Wednesday, continuing a downward trend from overnight with eyes on the Federal Open Market Committee statement due later in the day.

The pair is expected to find support at 1092.30, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1087.90.

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1099.90, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1103.10.

- See more at: https://www.hiwayfx.com/market-news/market-outlook-29072015#sthash.D1R51HwU.dpuf

 

[HiWayFX]

IMF Unlikely to Bailout Greece

The bailout deal supposedly secured for Greece is in jeopardy because it is disqualified from receiving new bailout money from the IMF. This could mean that the entire bailout for Greece is at risk since Germany will not back any bailout with the participation of the IMF.

The Financial Times writes:
According to a four-page “strictly confidential” summary of Wednesday’s board meeting, IMF negotiators will take part in policy discussions to ensure the eurozone’s new bailout “is consistent with what the Fund has in mind”.
But they “cannot reach staff level agreement at this stage”. The Fund will only decide whether to take part after Greece has “agreed on a comprehensive set of reforms” and, crucially, after Eurozone bailout lenders have “agreed on debt relief”.
But the IMF has a good reason for backing out of this bailout, and it's because the deal is bad for Greece and it's bad for Europe.
The IMF rightly believes that any new bailout money for Greece should come with debt relief as well. The debt mountain Greece is currently saddled with is impossible to pay back, and it ensures Greece's failure because investors and financial markets will never have confidence in Greece while it is essentially in debt enslavement.

This actually looks like the first time someone is taking Greece's side besides Greece. It seems that all of the brinksmanship and stubbornness of the Syriza party and Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister, has paid off in garnering some attention to the fact that Greece can only become viable if some of it's debt is forgiven and/or restructured.
The IMF will likely force the Troika's hand in the coming months by holding up any bailout for Greece by requiring debt relief. We don't believe that this development will throw Greece into default somewhere down the line. It's almost certain that the Troika will come to an agreement if the IMF continues to demand debt relief, but expect to see another drama play out when negotiations begin again and an agreement is made at the last possible minute.

- See more at: https://www.hiwayfx.com/market-news/imf-unlikely-bailout-greece#sthash.wKn5eRCt.dpuf

 

[HiWayFX]

Technical Analysis 31/07/2015

EURUSD
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 1.0892 but traded higher earlier today hit 1.0946. The bias remains bearish in nearest term retesting 1.0892. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0820 key support. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.0950. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.1000 area. Potential daily range today is seen between 1.0890 – 1.1000. My major technical outlook remains neutral.

GBPUSD
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bullish bias testing 1.5675 area. Immediate support is seen around 1.5540. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5500 or lower. Potential daily range today remains between 1.5540 – 1.5675. My major technical outlook remains neutral.

USDJPY
The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday slipped above 124.50 but closed lower at 124.12 and hit 123.91 earlier today. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 123.00. Immediate resistance is seen around 124.25. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term retesting 124.50. Potential daily range today remains between 123.00 – 124.50. My major technical outlook remains neutral.

USDCHF
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bearish bias testing 0.9600. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9720. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 0.9750 – 0.9800 region. Potential daily range today is seen between 0.9600 – 0.9720.

 

[HiWayFX]

The U.S Nonfarm Payroll Report

The U.S Nonfarm payroll Report is put together and released on the first Friday of each month by the Bureau of Labour Statistics and it offers a complete illustration of the country’s economic state. The numbers released in the report include the unemployment rate, job growth, average hourly earnings and the manufacturing subcomponent of the report which shows specific growth or contradiction in the manufacturing sector every month. Excluded from the report are all general government and household employees, as well as non-profit organization and farm employees.

- See more at: https://www.hiwayfx.com/forex-hub/us-nonfarm-payroll-report#sthash.qIDgmYy7.dpuf

 

[HiWayFX]

The U.S Nonfarm Payroll Report

The U.S Nonfarm payroll Report is put together and released on the first Friday of each month by the Bureau of Labour Statistics and it offers a complete illustration of the country’s economic state. The numbers released in the report include the unemployment rate, job growth, average hourly earnings and the manufacturing subcomponent of the report which shows specific growth or contradiction in the manufacturing sector every month. Excluded from the report are all general government and household employees, as well as non-profit organization and farm employees.

- See more at: https://www.hiwayfx.com/forex-hub/us-nonfarm-payroll-report#sthash.qIDgmYy7.dpuf