Weekly Market Review From Forex-Metal.


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Jul 12, 2010
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WEEKLY REVIEW FOR 3 - 7. 01, 2011
The first trading week of 2011 year was not very active since many of the market participants were on holidays. Meanwhile the greenback demonstrated considerable consolidation, and weak Euro-zone fundamentals, which were released during the week supported this trend.
According to the experts’ opinion, the US economical indicators would show strong results in 2011. In particular, the forecasts for the employment figures were very positive.
On Tuesday positive attitudes in the market pushed the EUR/USD pair to the $1.3424 mark maximums, which was only temporarily. The sterling showed growth as well and reached the $1.5640 level. Mortgage approvals for November showed unexpected growth to 48.0K, which supported the pound. The purchasing manager index for December grew above its forecasts as well.
Sings of the positive dynamics of the US economy supported the greenback growth against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair strengthened at the level of Y82,20 on Tuesday.
Oil prices were supported by the expectations for the release of the strong US fundamentals and speculations that the US economy rehabilitation rate would grow. The oil traded at the maximums of $91.48 per barrel. Due to oil price growth, the Canadian dollar rate showed considerable increase and traded around its 27-months maximum.
On Wednesday market participants were expecting the results of the Portugal and Poland state bond auctions. The euro was under pressure. The EUR/USD pair decreased to the $1,3270 range. European budget crises continued to have its negative influence on market participants.
Nevertheless, the released European economic data was strong on that day, which rendered temporary support to the euro. The German purchasing manager grew and turned out to be above forecasts. The Euro-zone purchasing manager index services and composite indices were above expectations as well. The Euro-zone producer price index resulted in 4.5% compared to forecasted 4.4%. The euro continued to drop and new minimums of the EUR/USD pair were reached at the $1.3208 level.
The GBP/USD rate showed minimums at the $1,5340 mark on that day. This decrease was a result of the published PMI construction for December, which happened to be below expectations.
The released American fundamentals were much stronger than expected: the ADP employment change for December showed growth for 297K instead of forecasted increase for 100K, which was the highest reading since the record keeping began. In addition, the ISM non-manufacturing composite index was above expectations as well. As a result the greenback rallied against all its counterparts.
Weak European docket rendered additional pressure on the euro on Thursday. Euro-zone consumer confidence for December dropped to -11.0 against the forecasted decrease to -10.2. Euro-zone industrial and economic confidence indicators grew above expectations, but could not support the euro. At the same time the Retail sales data dropped. Speculations regarding the spreading of the European banking crises reinforced. The EUR/USD minimums were set at the level of $1.3090. The US fundamental releases from Wednesday continued to support the greenback on Thursday as well. Additional support was rendered from the positive expectations for the considerable increase of the non-farm payrolls and drop of the unemployment rate, which are planned to be released on Friday. By the end of the day the EUR/USD dropped lower and reached $1.2996.
At the same time the sterling was under pressure due to the released purchasing manager services index, which turned out to be at the level of 49.7 against the forecasted 52.8. The GBP/USD dropped to the minimums around the $1.5450 mark.
Concerns over the negative influence of the flood on the country’s economy pressured the Australian dollar.
The released US fundamentals on Friday were not as strong as expected. The increased non-farm payrolls showed growth for only 113K compared to forecasted 178K. The EUR/USD pair closed the week at the level of $1,2950. The sterling did not manage to grow above the $1.5650 mark.

Happy trading!

The pair has broken Fibonacci retracement 38.2% 1.30659 and aiming to Moving Average (500) at 1.24352. Strong support maybe met at the median line of the trend channel 1.26623.
Resistance: 1.30659, 1.33427, 1.37441
Support: 1.28004, 1.25667, 1.20280

The pair needs to break a key level to continue declining 1.52523. While the pair is trading above this level the pair will try to rise. First aim is at Moving Average (100) at 1.59962.
Resistance: 1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504
Support: 1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344

The pair has drawn a bottom and may rise to median line at 0.98028. At the same level is Moving Average (100).
Resistance: 0.96525, 0.99031, 1.01369
Support: 0.93770, 0.91074, 0.88022

The pair needs to break 84.389 to be able to continue rising.
Resistance: 83.330, 86.836, 90.909
Support: 80.244, 76.535, 73.126

The pair needs to break 0.97889 to be able to work out double top figure. If this level is broken the pair may decline to 0.94048.
Resistance: 1.01873, 1.03847, 1.05810
Support: 0.97889, 0.94048, 0.89581


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