Market news from HiWayFX

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
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How You Can Profit from Economic Decoupling


The largest bond fund in the world, PIMCO, released their cyclical outlook recently, which discusses how the three major global economies of the US, Europe, and Japan, have decoupled. What that means to you as a trader, is that there are more significant opportunities in the forex market then before. Usually, these countries have similar economic outlooks because of how interconnected our global economy is. Today, though, Europe and Japan are suffering particularly more than the United States, which is bouncing back faster from slow economic growth.

The differences have arisen from the European Central Bank's lack of coherence in formulating a focused strategy on combating stagnating growth. In contrast, the Federal Reserve in the US has literally thrown tons of money at the same problem, and so far has had more success. At this point, the ECB is still unwilling to do what the Fed has done and initiate outright asset purchases in order to increase lending and economic activity.


"Our economic forecast for the next 12 months calls for a... long frequency U.S. business cycle recovery, with growth between 2.5% and 3.0%.

The eurozone economy should grow by about 1% in the next 12 months, continuing a painfully slow climb out of a double-dip recession.

We expect Japan will grow by around 1% to 1.5% in the next 12 months, and China’s growth is likely to slow to around 6.5%..."

Saumil H. Parikh of PIMCO

Euro

What this means for the Euro is exactly what we have been saying for the past two months. It is bad for your health to buy EUR/USD and it will continue to be bad for your health further down the road. Even though the pair has made new multi-year lows day-after-day, retail traders continue to rush in and catch this falling hatchet. The result is that many retail traders keep getting their hands lopped off.

The fall is not over and our further expectation is that it will fall towards 1.2740 in the near future. For the longer term (year 2015) 1.23 is likely. What this means for retail traders is that patience and timing is needed in order to sell into rallies of anything from 60 to 100 pips and ride the retracements down for the same amounts.

Japanese Yen

There is probably less upside opportunity for the USD/JPY than there is downside for EUR/USD. We believe this is because the market is has already priced in a significant portion of the quantitative easing the Bank of Japan has initiated (remember that the Yen has grown over 40% against the dollar in a period of just two and a half years).

Still, we do expect that a test of 110.80 is likely and that it will happen sooner rather than later.

The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
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37
Hello guys, you can have a look on our Market News

The Dollar has been on a tear for the past 5 months, each month making higher highs. Our call for a lower EUR/USD and a higher USD/JPY has seen quite generous outcomes but nothing is forever in the forex markets. We believe that now is the time for a correction in the EUR/USD downtrend, as well as in the USD/JPY uptrend. The CFD market is additionally showing signs of exhaustion as the S&P 500 Index trades at new lows for a second month.

Read more details on https://www.hiwayfx.com/en-uk/marke...tocks-fall

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HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
The Yen will be at 117.50 to the Dollar

Then Bank of Japan is Throwing Trillions of Yen out of the Back of a Truck!

That illustration is not completely inaccurate, although exaggerated. What we want to do atHiWayFX is to give the retail Forex client a sense of just why it is so dangerous and bad for one's health to short the USD/JPY at the moment.

The Technical Picture

How drastic will the rise of USD/JPY be? Our view is that 117.75 is a good medium-term target, and something to focus on while buying dips and selling rips in the USD/JPY.

For more information, please visit: https:https://www.hiwayfx.com/market-news/yen-will-be-11750-dollar

Thank you.
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
Changes in the Trading Schedule from 27 November until 28 November 2014

Dear Clients,

We would like to inform you about changes in the trading schedule from 27 November until 28 November due to Thanksgiving day in the USA.

Please refer to the following updated trading schedule following this link:https://www.hiwayfx.com/company-news/changes-trading-schedule-27-november-until-28-november-2014

Times are in UTC+2

Please note that this timetable may be subject to change.

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us at +44 3308 280 893, by emailing support@hiwayfx.com or via Live chat.

Kind Regards,
HiWayFX
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
Drop in US Treasury Yield Foretells a USD Pullback

The beginning of the new year has seen US 10-Year Treasury yields close under 2% for the first time since the summer of 2013. Market have been pricing in a rate hike from the Federal Reserve in 2015 for months now. Although we see the rate hike as forthcoming, and strength in the US Dollar to continue, short term signals indicate that the US Dollar will pull back, giving a chance for new longs to open positions.


Treasury Rates Tell the Future

Given the fact that the US 10-Year yield has been falling so swiftly in the last few weeks, and the fact that there has been little response from FX markets, there is likely to be a pullback in USD/JPY and a rise in EUR/USD.
We see USD/JPY falling to 117.10 or 116.80, which would be a good long entry to target 119.35 again. Pay close attention to the possible consolidation triangle forming. It has been a common pattern for USD/JPY to consolidate in an orderly triangle before breaking out to the upside.

Read more on our website

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HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
After the Swiss National Bank removed the ceiling on the Swiss Franc, and lowered their interest rate to (negative) -0.75%, EURCHF crashed. The crash saw EURCHF fall 30% in a matter of seconds from the 1.20 floor to as low as 0.87.

Looking at the technical picture on EURCHF, HiWayFX analysts have christened a new technical pattern - the ‪deadworm‬.

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HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
Why It's Time for a Pause in the US Dollar Trend?

News headlines come and go and Forex markets whip around with neck-breaking volatility, in a seemingly random fashion that only trading robots and algorithms can exploit.

We've seen this at its most during the month of February and wrote about the fact that trading in February was going to be difficult.

Find further information from our website.
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
Why Markets are at Risk from a New Global Financial Crisis

Just as we put the latest Greek debt drama behind us, HiWayFX brings to your attention another looming financial crisis which could be just as bad as the one from 2008.

This is what major financial firms from UBS to Goldman Sachs are warning of, due to major dislocation in world government bond markets and a 54% decline in the price of WTI Crude Oil in the span of 8 months.

Read more at My Webpage.
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
Parity is likely for EUR/USD following Wednesday Fed Meeting.

Parity is likely for EUR/USD following Wednesday Fed Meeting.


Even our forecasts at HiWayFX for the EURO have been conservative relative to the actual moves seen in recent months.

Our outlook was certainly for 1.07 sometime before the end of the second quarter, but apparently, the market has had other ideas by falling below 1.05 on Friday.

The ECB Has Lost Control.

The truth is, what is happening in the EUR/USD market smells like an out-of-control collapse and it will be a huge problem for the ECB..

Read more for further information about this article.
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
FOMC Meeting

Will March FOMC Meeting signal the end to easy monetary policy in the US?

When Janet Yellen took over the reins of the Federal Reserve earlier in 2014, the markets were expecting to see the Fed continue with its dovish monetary policies.

In the course of the past few quarters, the dovish assumptions of Ms. Yellen however seemed to change however.

Go to My Webpage for further information about this article.
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
Q2 2015 offers a lot of volatility and uncertainty for the currency markets.

Forex traders can expect to see a lot of volatility across the board heading into the second quarter of this year, April through June.

The risks to the currency markets come with a mix of monetary policy uncertainty and of course political uncertainty as well.

If you are unsure of the markets ahead, this article serves the purpose to enlighten the reader of the various risks that lie ahead in the next three months.

Read the full article from MyWebPage
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
March NFP Numbers gives fodder for Bulls and Bears!

The March jobs numbers saw a disappointing print in the monthly employment change, one that missed forecasts by a huge margin.

Considering that the consensus was already lower, the miss in expectations has prompted many to weigh the US labor markets leading to clearly divided camps of bulls and bears.

For traders, it is often best to sieve through the noise and look at the actual facts.

Read the full article
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
Yellen's statement keeps volatility alive late into Friday

Markets tend to slow down towards the latter part of Friday under usual circumstances. However, last Friday, 27th March was different.

In a week marked by speeches from various Fed members, the markets clearly and reasonably ignored the comments from Fed members, focusing on the main event, the statement from Fed Chair, Janet Yellen who was scheduled to speak at an event "The New Normal for Monetary Policy".

Read the full article.
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
Monthly Technical Analysis of Major Currencies - April 2015

As the markets head into a new month in April, we take a look at what the long term charts tell us from a technical perspective and also what has happened in the past month, since our last month’s monthly technical analysis notes.

Read the full article.
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
Changes to the Trading Schedule due to Labor Day Holiday

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Dear clients,

We would like to inform you about changes in the trading schedule from the 1st of May 2015 until the 4th of May 2015 due to the Labor Day Holiday.

Please refer to the following updated trading schedule.
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
Bill Gross Calls Another Top in Bonds, Predicts End of Low Rates.

Bond King Bill Gross is making another call that the 30 year-old US bond market bull run is coming to an end, and low rates will eventually rise. The trader has made these calls before, and the last one arguably lost him his job at PIMCO, since he called a top in bonds a few years ago betting that the Fed would tighten earlier than they actually did.

What It Means for Forex

Higher US interest rates (which is what would entail a “top” in the bond market) are supposed to translate into a higher US Dollar since the reward for holding USD goes up with as its base interest rate goes up.

Read more about this article.
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
There Is Something Wrong with the Forex Market

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There Is Something Wrong with the Forex Market.

Volatility in the Forex market has spiked drastically since last December, and it has become particularly pronounced after the FOMC statement on 18 March which saw swings in EUR/USD to the up and down sides in excess of 200 pips, all in a matter of hours.

Read more about this article.
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
British Pound Stages a comeback on UK election mandate.

The British Pound which has been trading considerably weaker since mid-last year was poised to the downside heading into the UK elections that concluded last week on May 7th. Economists and analysts alike were unanimous in expecting to see a weaker Pound Sterling on the UK elections, attributing this to the fact that with the rise of a number of new parties, the probability of a clear victory to a single political party was unlikely and that the uncertainty post-election alliance talks would weigh in on the Pound.

The outcome of the 2015 UK General elections was totally different and one that probably had the lowest odds.

Read more for further information about this article.
 

HiWayFX

Active Trader
Aug 26, 2014
318
0
37
Bonds Are Going Crazy and How to Trade the Yen

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Bond market volatility has dramatically spiked around the world, seeing German Bunds rally almost 5 basis points in the last weeks and a similar rally in US 10-Year Treasury Yields.

There is also a suspicious jump in Japanese Yen shorts in the last Commitment of Traders report which could mean that smart money accounts are getting ready for a rise in USD/JPY.

Read more about this article.