Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-Bottom" pushing the price higher
3/23/2017

The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0828. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the next resistance at 1.0850 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction towards a support at 1.0797 – 1.0774.

We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place between the 34 Moving Average and the nearest resistance at 1.0828. Also, we’ve got a “Thorn” and “V-Bottom” patterns, so bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.0850 during the day. Considering a pullback from this level, we should keep an eye on the closest support at 1.0774 as a possible bearish target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12973

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: local bullish "Flag"
3/23/2017

There’s a flat, which is taking place near the broken downtrend. In this case, the pair is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.2522 – 1.2547 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this area be on the table, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.2469 – 1.2438.

We’ve got a “Flag”, so the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the nearest resistance at 1.2522 during the day. If bulls be stopped by this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of a support at 1.2469 – 1.2438.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12975

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, March 23rd
3/23/2017

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 29 196 ? + 5 744 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0820; 1.0844; 1.0865; 1.0901
Closest support levels 1.0799; 1.0777; 1.0729; 1.0685
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0799 (or from 1.0820), with target points at 1.0777 and 1.0729
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0820 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0844 and 1.0865

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 190 ? + 62 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3328; 1.3353; 1.3378; 1.3416
Closest support levels 1.3303; 1.3280; 1.3245; 1.3194
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3328, with the target points at 1.3353 and 1.3378
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3303 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3280 and 1.3245

AUD/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 0 + 337 ?
Closest resistance levels 0.7668; 0.7687; 0.7699; 0.7718
Closest support levels 0.7657; 0.7639; 0.7622; 0.7597
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7657, with the target points at 0.7639 and 0.7622
Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7668 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7687 and 0.7699

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12977

 

[riki143]

S&P 500 near-term outlook
3/23/2017

Yesterday the benchmark US S&P 500 stock index hit its lowest level (2341.65) in five weeks. Guess, what was the main fundamental factor that caused this downfall? Your first answer will probably be – Mr. Trump said/did something. And you will be right. American shares slumped mostly on the concerns that Trump might not be able to push head his pro-growth policies. The lawmakers might show their unwillingness to accept his policy initiatives. The first test will be run on Trump’s plan to dismantle Obamacare. Healthcare reform act is running into troubles. It takes too much time to push it through. It’s a sort of a signal for investors that Trump’s tax reform policies may face setbacks.

Another fundamental reason for this drop is dipping oil prices. There is a positive correlation between crude oil prices and some equities. WTI crude oil futures has fallen nearly 12-13% in March bringing them at around $48 level. Brent oil futures touched their lowest levels since November on the investor’s concerns over non-compliance of several OPEC, non-OPEC countries with their obligations under November output cut deal, increasing US oil stockpiles and boosting US oil industry.

In the near-term, stocks have all chance for recovery from their recent downfall thanks to lower yields in benchmark government bonds and 10-year Treasury notes (the yields were falling for 4 consecutive days to 2.37% from 2.62%). The latter ones will be less attractive for investors seeking higher returns.

What will happen with S&P 500 in the near-term/short-term future?

Let us refer to the technical chart to answer this question. The immediate support can be found at 2,328 (50-day MA). On the upside, there are several resistances located at 2,360/2,370 levels. In the short term, the equity prices will likely be consolidating within the range of 2,330-2,380 (yesterday’s high). A break of the higher level of the range will open the way towards resistance at 2,400 (March high).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12978

 

[riki143]

GBP/AUD rising inside primary impulse wave ③
3/23/2017

GBP/AUD rising inside primary impulse wave ③
Next buy target - 1.6480
GBP/AUD continues to rise inside the primary upward impulse wave ③, which started earlier from the support zone surrounding the powerful support level 1.5900, which reversed the price multiple times in October and November, as can be seen from the daily GBP/AUD chart below. The upward reversal from this support area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.

GBP/AUD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.6480 (top of the previous minor correction (b) from February)

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12980

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Inverted Hammer" pushing the market higher
3/23/2017

We’ve got a bullish “Engulfing” on the nearest support area. If this pattern confirms, the market is likely going to continue moving up in the short term.

The 55 Moving Average acted as a support, so we’ve got an “Inverted Hammer” on this line. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, bulls are likely going to test the closest resistance level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12982

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bearish "High Wave"
3/23/2017

There’s a bullish “Engulfing” at the local low. However, there’s also a local bearish “Hanging Man”, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support line once again.

The 21 Moving Average acted as a resistance. Also, there’s a confirmed bearish “High Wave”, so the price is likely going to continue moving down until any bullish pattern arrives.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12984

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD falling inside minor corrective wave (ii)
3/23/2017

AUD/USD falling inside minor corrective wave (ii)
Next sell target - 0.7500
AUD/USD today reached the support level 0.7640, which was indicated as the likely downward target – in case the price failed to overcome the powerful resistance barrier 0.7730 (which has been steadily reversing this currency pair from the start of August, as can be seen from the daily AUD/USD chart below). The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.7730 started the active minor corrective wave (ii).

AUD/USD is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 0.7500 (which stopped the previous minor correction 2 at the start of March).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12981

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Diagonal Triangle" in wave v of (c)
3/23/2017

A Double Zigzag in wave 2 is about to end, so we should keep an eye on +2/8 MM Level as a bullish target. If a pullback from this level be on the table there’ll be time for a new bearish wave.

There’s a possible diagonal triangle in wave v of (c), which is a part of a zigzag in wave [y]. In this case, bulls are likely going to deliver a new local high during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12985

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro corrected to Kijun-sen
3/24/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0760, 1.0740; resistance – 1.0800/20.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0740; SL — 1.0720; TP1 — 1.0800; TP2 – 1.0820.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but the Senkou Span A is falling; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, falling Tenkan-sen; the prices are corrected to Kijun-sen and may continue correction to the Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12987

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie testing SSB’s support
3/24/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7600/20, 0.7570; resistance – 0.7670, 0.7700.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7620; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7670; TP2 — 0.7700.

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of falling Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are entered into the Cloud and testing the support of Senkou Span B.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12988

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: loonie came closer to the Rubicon
3/24/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, the bulls managed to hold their positions at 1.3306 (38,2% from the last long-term downward wave) and launch a counterattack.A breakout of the support at 1.3405 will lead to the continuation of the rally towards the upper boundary of the downward trading channel (1.35-1.3525).

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the further dynamics of the movement of the pair will depend on the test of the diagonal support located near 1.34. If it is tested successfully it will lead to the implementation of the 113% target in the Shark inverted pattern, A failure to do so will lead to the development of consolidation in the range of 1.325-1.34.

Recommendation: BUY 1,34 SL 1,3345 TP 1,3525.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12989

 

[riki143]

Gold got in with doji
3/24/2017

On the daily chart of gold, the formation of two doji bars indicates uncertainty. To continue the rally, the bulls will need to update the March high/ A pullback towards $1,242 will lead to the development of correction towards $1,229 and $1,220. In general, the outlook for the pair is still bullish. You should consider buying on the rollbacks.

On the hourly chart of gold, the expanding wedge pattern has been formed. It may send the prices lower towards the 200% and 88.6% targets in the AB = CD and "Shark" patterns. They are located near the $1,237 and $1,229.

Recommendations:

BUY $1237 SL $1222 TP $1280,

BUY $1229 SL $1214 TP $1280.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12990

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for March 24
3/24/2017

The US dollar regained some losses in the Tokyo session as Trump still didn’t get a vote on his healthcare bill. Yesterday U.S. President said to lawmakers that he wants a vote (up or down) today. Otherwise, he will have to leave Obamacare in place and move forward with tax reform. It seems that Donald Trump is a Rolling Stones fan as he learned their lesson “You can’t always get what you want” well. The vote on the new healthcare legislation has been seen by financial markets as a test of Trump's ability to work with Congress to deliver on other parts of his agenda (government procurements, infrastructure spending, tax cuts and other fiscal expansionary measures). In addition to this healthcare conundrum, we got a Reuters report stating that the US Administration is preparing a streak of new executive orders to re-examine all 14 US free trade agreement. The NAFTA agreement is on the top of the list. In the near-term, we might see Mexican peso and Loonies bleeding.

The euro traded lower in the course of the past session. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0765. The pair is still going through the consolidation phase moving in a tight range of 1.0705/1.0825. A move towards 1.0870 is not ruled out. On the downside, there is a sturdy support at 1.0735 (50-H4 MA). if it’s tested, it will be a signal of the downtrend restoration. Today’s focus will be on the French, German, Austrian preliminary PMI. The consensus forecasts promise strong readings. Solid economic releases will be supportive for the European currency.

USD/JPY slumped to 110.60 overnight. In the early hours of Tokyo session, the yen succumbed to USD after BoJ’s Governor Kuroda said that he sees no reason to reduce monetary easing now. He also added that the BoJ’s policy-makers are not going to raise yield target at the present moment until the bank’s inflation target is hit. The traders should pay closer attention to the US durable goods today.

Aussie fell to 0.7615 in the past sessions. The move was not triggered by any specific news. A deeper pullback towards 0.7600/0.7555 level is not ruled out. If AUD manages to reclaim 0.7700 we will be able to conclude that the downward pressure has eased.

The British pound was the top performer in the previous session. It spiked above 1.2530 overnight as we received a better than expected retail sales release from the UK. In the Tokyo morning, GBP has ceded its ground to the greenback. It seems that the bullish phase has started to phase out. The immediate support can be found at around 1.2415.

USD/CAD picked up to 1.3368 on the session. The market participants will be waiting for the inflation data from Canada coming at 14:30 pm MT time. Oil prices hit their three-months lows ($50.70) on investor concerns that OPEC-led supply cuts are not leading to the reduction of US oil stockpiles.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12991

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, March 24th
3/24/2017

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 23 275 ? - 188 956 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0770; 1.0798; 1.0820(?); 1.0854
Closest support levels 1.0756; 1.0723; 1.0680; 1.0654
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0770, with target points at 1.0798 and 1.0820
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0756 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0723 and 1.0680

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 58 ? + 111 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2498; 1.2521; 1.2541
Closest support levels 1.2480; 1.2455; 1.2429; 1.2397
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2480 (or from 1.2498), with target points at 1.2455 and 1.2429
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2498 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2521 and 1.2541

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12992

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: support waiting for bears
3/24/2017

We’ve got a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed, so the price is declining. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving down towards the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0797 – 1.0828.

There’s a “Triple Top”, which has been confirmed by the last “Pennant” pattern. So, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.0731 – 1.0713 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.0797 – 1.0811.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12993

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Double Top" led to bearish correction
3/24/2017

The pair faced a resistance at 1.2522, so we’ve got a confirmed “Double Top”, which pushed the price to a support at 1.2477. In this case, the market is likely going to achieve the next support at 1.2438 – 1.2411 in the short term. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be a chance to have a bullish price movement towards a resistance at 1.2522 – 1.2547.

We’ve got a “Triple Top”, which has been confirmed, so the price is consolidating near a support at 1.2477. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12994

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for March 27-31
3/24/2017

The British pound soared to 1.2530 mainly on the upbeat economic releases coming from the UK. CPI figures pushed up through the Bank of England’s 2% target. UK monthly retail sales posted a stronger-than-expected growth of 1.4% having broken a weakening trend which was present in the past two months.

Next week on March 29 the UK PM Theresa May will finally invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and start lengthy negotiation over Britain’s departure from the EU. As most of the negative news and Brexit uncertainty is already reflected in the price, we don’t expect massive troughs from the pound. Another market trigger will probably be Trump’s fiscal policies. On the data front, traders will closely watch US consumer confidence indicator, final GDP, and unemployment claims. UK current account data and final GDP figures will be released on Friday.

Technically, the bullish phase that has started on Monday is still intact. The next physical hurdles can be found at 1.2570 (February 24 high) and 1.2620 (trendline from December high). But the numerous fundamental factors that we’ve previously identified will probably not allow the pound to hit these levels. As we approach towards the official launch of the Brexit negotiations GBP/USD will probably slide towards the supports at 1.2420 (100-day MA), 1.2377 (200-H4 MA) and 1.2105 (March low).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12995

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: outlook for March 27-31
3/24/2017

Kiwi dollar slid to 0.6995 in the past week amid bad NZ trade balance data and higher USD. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates and its present monetary policy stance unchanged having failed to provide a boost for the domestic currency.

Next week economic calendar for NZD/USD currency pair will be light. The main focus will likely be on the US political news, mainly on Trump’s fiscal and trade policies. The background will be created by the US dataset (CB consumer confidence, final GDP, unemployment claims) and Fed speakers. On Friday, pay closer attention to the business confidence report coming out of New Zealand at 2:00 am (MT time).

The technical outlook for NZD/USD currency pair is bearish. Kiwi rollbacked from the key resistance line at 0.7090 towards 0.7005. A break of the support at 0.6990 might send prices towards 0.6920 (50% Fibo level traced from last-year low). On the upside, the immediate resistance can be found at 0.7050, 0.7140.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12996

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" waiting for bulls
3/24/2017

We’ve got a “Morning Doji Star”, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the upper “Window”. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction.

There’s a “Tweezers” at the local low. At the same time, we’ve got a bearish “Doji”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction. However, bulls are likely going to deliver a new high.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12999