Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: bulls took a break
3/21/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 1.0705-1.0785. A breakout of its upper border will increase the risks of continuation of the rally towards 1.086, and then, towards 1.104 (target 161,8% in the AB = CD pattern ). In contrast, a successful test of the support at 1.0705 can lead to the development of the correction towards 1.0635 and 1.06 levels.

Screenshot_2017_03_21_07_36_58.png


On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the Dragon pattern was successfully implemented. At the present moment, there is a formation of the triangle. A successful test of its upper border and resistance at 1.0775 will open the way for the bulls to the north. "Bears" expect a drop of the quotes below the support at 1.072.

Screenshot_2017_03_21_07_37_15.png


Recommendations:

BUY 1,0775 SL 1,072 TP1 1,086 TP2 1,104,

SELL 1,0705 SL 1,076 TP 1,06.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12933
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: euro still under resistance
3/21/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0740, 1.0700; resistance – 1.0800/20.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0800; SL — 1.0820; TP1 — 1.0740; TP2 – 1.0700.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines Senkou Span A and B are horizontal; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are under a daily resistance; the market is overbought.

01-eurusdh4(105).png


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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12934
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/CHF: bears took the situation under control
3/22/2017

On the USD/CHF daily chart, a breakout of the lower border of the upward trading channel was a signal for the restoration of the downtrend. If sellers manage to send quotes below the support at 0.985, the prices might move lower towards the 161.8% and 88.6% targets in the AB=CD and Shark patterns.

Screenshot_2017_03_22_07_41_29.png



On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the expanding wedge pattern has been realized. Bears' attacked has been stopped near the important 0.9927 level (78,6% from the last upward wave). If it is tested successfully and the support at 0.9896 is broken, sellers will absolute winners.

Screenshot_2017_03_22_07_41_46.png


Recommendations: SELL 0,9895 SL 0,995 TP 0,966.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12951
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY: yen strives to strengthen more
3/22/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, the prices returned to the limits of the previous trading channel. This is a signal of the restoration of the downtrend. An update of February lows will activate the AB = CD pattern. Its 200% target is located near the 108 mark. At the same time, if bears fail to keep quotes below the resistance at 111.75, it will be evidence of their weakness and will allow bulls to launch a counterattack.

Screenshot_2017_03_22_07_42_02.png


On the USD/JPY hourly chart, quotes almost reached the 113% target in the AB = CD pattern. This may lead to the development of consolidation in the range of 111.25-112.85.

Screenshot_2017_03_22_07_42_16.png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12952
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: pound is made new highs
3/22/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2420; resistance – 1.2525.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2420; SL — 1.2400; TP1 — 1.2520; TP2 — 1.2560.

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are under strong resistance; expected a correction to Tenkan-sen.

02-gbpusdh4(82).png


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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12953
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
AUD/USD: aussie going down to Cloud
3/22/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7640, 0.7620; resistance – 0.7700, 0.7730.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7640; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7700; TP2 — 0.7730.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a cancelled golden cross of rising Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in a correction to the Cloud.

03-audusdh4(90).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12954
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
Morning brief for March 22
3/22/2017

Market participants diminished their appetites for the USD and switched to high yielding currencies.

The yen was an absolute gainer in the Asian session. USD/JPY slumped to 111.65. Earlier this morning we’ve got BoJ’s January meeting minutes. Most of the members that price momentum is not firm yet; the BoJ might start raising its rates in response to surging treasury yields. It will be the first stage of QQE tapering. Also, there was news on the wires of another North Korea missile launch (apparently, it was failed). But the market’s response was limited.

Aussie lost its ground vis-à-vis its American counterpart. AUD/USD slid to 0.7660. it seems that the upward pressure post-FOMC has eased off. Most likely, the Australian dollar will be trading sideways in the range of 0.7600 – 0.7730.

Kiwi edged down to 0.7035 on the session. Today’s focus will be on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate announcement. Analysts expect the RBNZ to leave its rates unchanged and refuse to recourse to further easing. The immediate resistance on the upside lies at around 0.7115. Falling commodity prices and dovish tone of the meeting would send NZD to negative area towards the nearest supports at 0.7010 and 0.6980.

GBP/USD spiked to 1.2475 overnight after the strong release of the UK CPI data and indication of the exact data of Article 50 trigger. CPI figures pushed up through the BoE’s target of 2.0$. It was 2.3% (the market expected 2.1% print). Sterling was already surging into the report, afterward, it got an additional boost. There is no economic data for the pound on the agenda. USD dynamic will continue to determine GBP/USD path without any catalyst from the UK.

EUR/USD surged to 1.0815 but failed to stand there for long after the buying dried up. In the early hours of Tokyo morning, the euro slipped to 1.0800. Fed’s Loretta Mester was speaking. Her speech wasn’t really upbringing for USD watchers as she underlined that there is no urgency to lift rates quicker than is currently priced in. The greenback will likely be willing to consolidate within the narrow range of 1.0820-1.0750 this week. On the downside, there are several supports at 1.0775, 1.0745.

USD/CAD moved to 1.3375. Loonie felt weak despite yesterday’s upbeat economic data (Canadian retail sales). Today’s focus will be on the gov council member Schembri’s speech. On the upside, there is still a sturdy resistance at 1.3420. The immediate support lies near the 100-day MA at 1.3300.

Oil prices posted new lows having slid to $50.60 after industry estimates (API) showed a sharp increase in US inventories. A launch of the North Korean missile was an additional headwind for oil futures.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12955
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
Key option levels for Wednesday, March 22nd

EUR/USD

EURUSD(149).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 50 007 ? + 89 134 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0847; 1.0869; 1.0889; 1.0923
Closest support levels 1.0810; 1.0780; 1.0731; 1.0686
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0810 (or from 1.0847), with target points at 1.0780 and 1.0731
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0847 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0869 and 1.0889

GBP/USD

GBPUSD(118).png



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 35 ? + 190 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2512; 1.2535; 1.2560; 1.2600
Closest support levels 1.2502; 1.2448; 1.2404; 1.2344
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2502, with target points at 1.2448 and 1.2404
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2512 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2535 and 1.2560

USD/CAD

USDCAD(129).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 301 ? - 35 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3355; 1.3378; 1.3416; 1.3468
Closest support levels 1.3328; 1.3305; 1.3284; 1.3247
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3355, with the target points at 1.3378 and 1.3416
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3328 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3305 and 1.3284

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12957
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: bullish "Flag" led to new high
3/22/2017

22-3-2017-EUR-H4.png


The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0811. At the same time, the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.0828 – 1.0850. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0797 – 1.0774.

22-3-2017-EUR-H1.png


There’s a bullish “Flag”, so the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.0828 – 1.0850. However, if a pullback from these levels be on the table, bears will probably try to reach the closest support at 1.0797 – 1.0774.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12958
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: resistance waiting for bulls
3/22/2017

22-3-2017-GBP-H4.png


The price has been consolidating since the downtrend was broken. Nevertheless, the pair is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2506 – 1.2522 during the day. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be a chance to have a decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2469 – 1.2438.

22-3-2017-GBP-H1.png


We’ve got a “Flag”, so bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2506 – 1.2522 during the day. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area arrives afterwards, bears will probably try to set up a downward correction, so we should keep an eye on the closest support at 1.2469 – 1.2438 as an intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12959
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
Gold market overview
3/22/2017

Gold prices hit their March high at $1247 in the European session posting gains for six consecutive days. A further upsurge is not ruled out. To determine whether there will be a retracement, we suggest you looking at gold fundamentals and XAU/USD technical chart.

Fundamentals:

The political uncertainties over European election and Brexit offer substantial support for the gold prices. The recent spike in the gold prices should be attributed to another factor. Lots of the gold’s gains came after the Fed raised its interest rate, but maintained a more subdued pace for future rate hikes. An expectation for a slower pace of rate increases will be the factor of the gold appreciation.

Another tailwind may well come from India, the world’s largest consumer of the yellow metal. Last year, Indian gold demand plummeted from 857,2 tonnes to 675.5 tonnes mainly because of the governmental regulation necessitating the removal of high denomination 500 and 1,000 rupee notes in November. This year the Indian demand is recovering: gold imports jumped to 50 tonnes in February which 82% more than India demanded in the same month last year.

Another gold consumer People’s Republic of China might increase its demand for gold. The main factor it the value of yuan. Chinese yuan depreciate with unpredictable pace, so the investors might be willing to switch to gold as a hedge.

Technical analysis:

The precious metal rallied to $1,247 overnight. The key resistance on its way is lying at $1,250 near the 78.6 Fibo level traced from this year high. A breakout of this level will open the way towards next hurdles at 1,255.60, 1,260. An immediate support lies at $1,237.50 (61.8% Fibo level) and at $1221.40 (near 38.2% Fibo level coinciding with 50-day MA).

XAUUSDDaily(8).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12960[/IMG]
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: bears going test "Window"
3/22/2017

2203eurusdh4.png


We’ve got a bearish “Hanging Man”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support area. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new local high.

2203eurusdh1.png


There’re a “Tweezers” and a “High Wave”, which both led to the current decline. At the same time, we’ve got a bullish “Hammer”, but its confirmation isn’t enough. In this case, bears are likely going to test the lower “Window” soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12962
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY: bears can't stop
3/22/2017

2203usdjpyH4.png


The last candles are bearish, which means there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the price is likely going to continue falling down towards the nearest support level.

2203usdjpyH1.png


We’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern, which pushed the price lower. Considering that we don’t have any bullish pattern, there’s a chance to have the market even lower during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12963
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD near-term forecasts from banks
3/22/2017

Credit Agricole

Bank’s analysts believe that any further strength in the EUR/USD exchange rate should take it into selling territory. A key resistance line, that has been touched several times since Donald Trump’s inauguration, lies at 1.0800. Any rally towards this level or above should offer an attractive opportunity to short the pair.

A release of Purchasing Manager surveys from financial information provider Markit on March 24 can offer this opportunity and push the euro towards 1.0800 area or higher. Commerzbank also highlighted this region having said that selling pressure might emerge at around 1.0829.

Lloyds Bank

The bank believes that euro can weaken in the near term. European political events will likely remain a key source of downside risk for the euro with French presidential and German parliamentary elections, concerns over the outlook of Greece’s economy and extension of the ECB’s QE program.

Nomura

Nomura economists expect the ECB to start communicating tapering of its QE program at September meeting. The combination of diminishing political risk premium and steps toward ECB policy normalization can lead to the EUR strengthening in the second half of the year.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12964
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
CAD/JPY broke support zone
3/22/2017

CAD/JPY broke support zone
Next sell target - 82.00
CAD/JPY continues to fall sharply after the earlier breakout of the support zone lying between the support levels 85.00, 84.00, 100-day simple moving average, support trendline of the daily down channel from December and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp upward impulse from the start of November.

The breakout of the aforementioned support zone accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) – which belongs to the long-term downward impulse wave ⑤ from December. CAD/JPY is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 82.00.

CADJPY_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Mar-22_1654_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12965
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
AUD/JPY falling inside C-wave
3/22/2017

AUD/JPY broke support zone
Next sell target - 84.00
AUD/JPY continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support zone lying between the support level 86.00 (which reversed the previous waves A and (b), as can be seen below) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the earlier intermediate impulse wave (1) from the end of December. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active minor C-wave.

AUD/CAD is expected to fall further in the active C-wave toward the next sell target at the support level 84.00 (strong support level from December, intersecting with the support trendline of the wide daily up channel from last year).

AUDJPY_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Mar-22_1652_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12966
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD: wave 2 is going to end
3/23/2017

Image20170322201142001.png


Wave 2 is taking form of a double zigzag. The main intraday target for wave [y] is +2/8 MM Level. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a downward impulse wave.

Image20170322201142002.png


There’s a developing bullish impulse in wave (c) of [y] on the one-hour chart. In this case, wave v of (c) is likely going to be continued. So, bulls will probably try to test +2/8 MM Level soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12967
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD: bulls must show their strength
3/23/2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, prices are trying to consolidate above the important level of 1.2485. If they succeed, the risks of the continuation of the rally towards 1.26 and 1.265 levels will increase. In contrast, a rollback followed by the return of the quotes to the borders of the downward trading channel will tell us about the realization of the 5-0 pattern.

Screenshot_2017_03_23_07_51_17.png


On the GBP/USD daily chart, buyers are preparing for the test of the March high. Activation of the AB = CD pattern will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards 1.26. But if the buyers fail to gain a foothold above 1.25, it will lead to the implementation of the expanding wedge pattern.

Screenshot_2017_03_23_07_51_35.png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12970
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
AUD/USD: Aussie escaped the Shark
3/23/2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, bears for the second time try to push the quotes out of the descending trading channel. If they succeed the target 113% in the "Shark" inverted pattern will unlikely be implemented. Aussie might develop the correction towards 0.7605 and lower.

Screenshot_2017_03_23_07_51_54.png


On the AUD/USD hourly chart, senior and junior Shark patterns are still relevant. There might be a rebound from the present levels, or from the level of 0.7560. Many things depend on the test of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel. A breakout of the resistance at 0.7683 will likely return the "bulls" to life.

Screenshot_2017_03_23_07_52_15.png


Recommendation: BUY 0,7685 SL 0,763 TP 0,777.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12971
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
Morning brief for March 23
3/23/2017

donald-trump-obamacare-repeal-replace-dismantle-933x445-1.jpg


Today the US Congress will be voting on a key healthcare reform bill which is seen by my market experts as a litmus test for the relationship between the White House and Congress. If the bill doesn’t pass, it could delay or reduce the scope for other policies, like tax cuts and massive infrastructure spending. So, now Donald Trump is “working hard for the money” (let me borrow this line from Donna Summer’s song, it fits best for the description of Trump’s efforts) to them spend them not on the Medicare/Medicate, but on the further development of the US economy.

EUR/USD is trading sideways within the range of 1.0775/1.0825. The result of the latest French election poll with Macron beating anti-EU Le Pen offer a little boost to the euro – it edged a few ticks higher towards 1.0790. Short-term upward momentum is slowing down, so the quotes might slide towards the nearest supports at 1.0770, 0.0745 levels. If Trump fails to push through his healthcare bill, the euro might jump above the recent high at 1.0825.

Data wise, it is going to be another quiet session with little data in the economic calendar. You would probably argue here saying: “look, how about Janet Yellen speech to be delivered at 2:45 pm MT time?” Well, I wouldn’t be so excited about it, as Fed Chair will address to the Fed’s Community Development Research Conference. There is no connection between kids and Fed’s monetary policy projections (the conference will be aimed at the economic future of children).

USD/JPY dropped to 110.70 overnight. In the early hours of the Asian session, prices moved higher as political scandal dented investor sentiment. It concerns the alleged relationship of prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife with a Japanese nationalist education group that bought stated-owned land at undervalued prices to build an elementary school. The impact on the yen is still from this scandal is not clear.

GBP/USD rose to 1.2475 in the course of the Asian session having remained unaffected by the news flow from London. There was an attack close to Britain’s Parliament which left 5 people dead and 40 injured. The attacker is believed to have been inspired by Islamist-related terrorism. In terms of economic data, you should focus your attention on the UK retail sales coming at 11:30 am MT time.

NZD/USD is net changed on the session. On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its rate unchanged as it was projected by the markets. A neutral policy bias has been maintained. The technical outlook for the pair is neutral. It is expected to trade sideways between 0.6950-0.7090 for some more days.

Aussie dipped to 0.7660 in the Asian session, but the consolidation phase is still in place. Only a sustained drop below 0.7600 will signal us about the restoration of the downtrend. There was no data flow from the region. The economy calendar is almost empty.

Oil prices have finally rebounded to $51.01 after touching their lowest level ($49.70) since November when OPEC and non-OPEC members fabricated their output cut deal. A sharp downfall was caused by the official US data that showed US inventories grew by far more than it had been forecasted.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12972