Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" acting as a support
3/16/2017

The lower “Window” is acting as a support. Also, we’ve got a developing “Three Methods”. Considering that there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, bulls are likely going to continue moving up until a bearish model arrives.

We’ve got a “Shooting Star”, which led to the current bearish correction. However, there’s a bullish “Doji”, which has been confirmed. So, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance area during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12888

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bullish "Hammer"
3/16/2017

There’s a bullish “Hammer”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the market is likely going to test the Moving Averages. However, bears will probably try to deliver a new local low.

We’ve got a “Hammer”, so the pair is likely going to test the upper “Window”, which could be a departure point for another decline in the direction of the last low.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12889

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [ii] going to end

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12890/Image20170316171704001.png

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a developing flat pattern in wave [ii]. Also, we’ve got a diagonal triangle in wave (c) of [ii]. If a pullback from the upper side of this pattern happens, wave (i) is going to begin.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12890

 

[riki143]

AUD/NZD reached buy target 1.1000
3/16/2017

AUD/NZD reached buy target 1.1000
Next buy target - 1.1100

AUD/NZD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 1.1000, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast or this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 1.1000 should accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3 which earlier broke through the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the key resistance level 1.0900 and the resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from September.

AUD/NZD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1100. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned price level 1.1000.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12891

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF reached sell target 1.000
3/16/2017

USD/CHF reached sell target 1.000
Next sell target - 0.9890

USD/CHF continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support level 1.0000, which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.0000 should accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3- which earlier broke the support trendline of the daily up channel from February (which enclosed the previous minor ABC correction 2).

USD/CHF is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 0.9890 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 in January, as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12892

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound wants to rise higher[//B]
3/17/2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the implementation of the targets in the "Crab" and AB = CD patterns resulted in the rebound of the prices. After a short consolidation, the bulls launched the counterattack with the intention to test the upper boundary of the upward trading channel. If they succeed, the risks of the continuation of the rally towards 1.255 and higher will increase.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the inverted "Shark" pattern is still relevant. Its 78.6% and 88.6% targets are located near the 1.2475 and 1.252 levels. Most likely, the "bears" will try to protect these levels.

Recommendations:

SELL 1,2475 SL 1,253 TP 1,2315,

SELL 1,252 SL 1,2575 TP 1,2315.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12894

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for March 17
3/17/2017

The storm after the range of central banks’ meetings died down and a great calm has finally succeeded. USD was a little bit softer against its major peers in the recent session. The reaction to President Trump budget outline released yesterday was really muted. A “wish list” of spending requests for Congress wasn’t long. The US newsmen called it the skinniest skinny budget compared with the 40 years of presidential budgets. It was somewhat 53 pages long containing four slender tables. President Bill Clinton’s first budget document was 145 pages, while Obama’s was 1343 pages. There was no mentioning of “mandatory” spending on programs like Social Security or Medicare, projections about the incoming tax cuts, spending beyond 2018. It promised increase of spending on security and cuts on the international aid.

US industrial production and consumer sentiments are the main data highlights for today. Another focus will be on President Trump and German Chancellor Merkel meeting in the White House. Many analysts believe that it’s going to be a friendly affair, unless Donald Trump takes a similar line to his trade advisor Peter Navarro constantly accusing Germany and other leading nations in currency manipulation.

Also, there will be a commencement of G20 summit in Baden-Baden (Germany). US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will attend it. The event itself shouldn’t serve market participants lemons unless the US protectionism is not discussed and accusation of currency manipulation is not put on the agenda.

The euro was an absolute gainer in the course of the last two days. EUR/USD jumped to 1.0770 after the election victory of Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte and the debacle of the anti-EU leader Geert Wilders. The ECB Nowotny offered a substantial support to the euro having said that rate increase may be on the way. The ECB’s monetary policy model might differ from those that has recently been adopted by Fed. The European Central Bank can start with rate increases and only then turn to tapering its bond purchase program. Technically, the European currency can extend its earlier gains towards the resistance line at 1.0830. On the downside, a rather sturdy support that can be found near the 1.0700 level.

Commodity currencies were higher in the Asian session. Aussie ticked up to 0.7685. AUD/USD undertone is clearly positive. The bulls may push quotes higher towards the next resistance at 0.7740. While the further uplift seems likely, the recent rally was so rapid that there might be a retracement towards the nearest supports at 0.7660/0.7615.

USD/CAD moved higher to 1.3320 in the Asian session. The bears failed to break the strong support at 1.3280. On the upside, there is a resistance at 1.3420. Oil prices rose slightly supported by the weak US dollar.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12895

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: kiwi caught the crab
3/17/2017

On the NZD/USD daily chart, after the implementation of the 88.6% target in the "Bat" pattern, the "bulls" are trying to take the lead. Their goal is to return quotes to the boundaries of the upward long-term channel and restore the uptrend. It is too early to talk about this, however. But the development of correction towards the current downward trend is not ruled out.

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, the inverted "Crab" pattern is relevant. Its 161.8% target is located near the 0.714 mark. For its implementation, the "bulls" need to attack the resistances at 0.704 and 0.707 levels.

Recommendation: BUY 0,704 SL 0,6985 TP 0,714.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12896

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, March 17th
3/17/2017

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 70 513 ? - 4 036 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0790; 1.0812; 1.0840; 1.0865
Closest support levels 1.0776; 1.0753; 1.0712; 1.0672
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short EUR/USD below 1.0776, with target points at 1.0753 and 1.0712
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0790 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0812 and 1.0840
GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 149 ? - 78 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2361; 1.2387; 1.2407
Closest support levels 1.2319; 1.2296; 1.2269; 1.2238
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2361 (or from 1.2319), with target points at 1.2387 and 1.2407
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2319 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2296 and 1.2269
USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest - 129 ? + 113 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3346; 1.3371; 1.3412; 1.3468
Closest support levels 1.3312; 1.3294; 1.3273; 1.3240
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3312, with the target points at 1.3294 and 1.3273
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3346 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3371 and 1.3412

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12898

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: technical analysis
3/17/2017

H4

The price faced a resistance at 1.0774, so the pair is consolidating. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.0797 – 1.0811. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0754 – 1.0732.

H1

We’ve got a “Pennant” pattern, so bulls are likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.0797 – 1.0811 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to test the closest support at 1.0754 – 1.0732.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12899

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: technical analysis
3/17/2017

GBP, H4

Bulls faced a resistance at 1.2382, so the price reached a support at 1.2347 afterwards. Also, there’s a developing “Pennant”, so the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2411 in the short term. Nevertheless, if a pullback from this level be on the table, we should keep an eye on the 89 Moving Average as a possible bearish target.

GBP, H1

The price is consolidating along a support at 1.2347. Considering the last “Pennant” pattern, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.2382 – 1.2411. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to approach a support at 1.2347 – 1.2315.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12900

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: outlook for March 20-24
3/17/2017

The kiwi dollar jumped to 0.7050 on Wednesday after Fed’s officials refused to accelerate the current pace of the monetary tightening. Towards the end of the past week, there was a pullback towards 0.6970. New Zealand’s annual growth rate slowed further despite surging immigration, low borrowing costs and evident activity in the housing sector. This casts doubt on the latest central bank’s projection that growth would accelerate to more than 4% by the second half of 2017.

The main focus of the next week will be on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Most analysts expect the central bank to stay on hold adopting a wait-and-see approach. Ahead of the meeting, we will get an update of global dairy prices. Then we will be waiting for Thursday’s Fed Chair Yellen speech followed by the comments on the US economic outlook from other FOMC members.

The technical outlook for the pair is neutral. NZD/USD might spend a few days in the consolidation phase before facing rather sturdy resistances at 0.7050 (38.2% Fibo retracement level from last year low), 0.7120 and 0.7140. A pullback below 0.6940 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased and the way towards the next support at 0.6915 (50% Fibo retracement level) is open.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12901

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for March 20-24
3/17/2017

GBP/USD surged to 1.2390. The Bank of England left rates on hold, but its member Kristin Forbes voted for a hike thereby showing that policymakers becoming more and more concerned with a rise in inflation. Her vote surprised the market and made the pound rise. Post-FOMC weakness of the US dollar was another tailwind for the British pound. On the political front, Theresa May has finally received a formal permission to trigger Article 50 by the end of March. Nicola Sturgeon’s bid to hold another referendum on the Scottish independence of the country was rejected by the UK Prime Minister who tries to avoid spreading the country’s resources between defending the British integrity and securing advantageous separation with the EU. This news offered additional support to the pound.

Next week keep an eye on the UK CPI figures and retail sales coming on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. From the US, we will be waiting for the comments on the US economic outlook from numerous FOMC members, Fed Chair Yellen’s speech scheduled for Thursday accompanied by the UK retail sales and the US unemployment claims, as well as the US core durable goods orders on Friday.

Technically, short-term indicators remain in neutral-bearish territory and might prompt a retracement towards immediate supports at 1.2350, 1.2290 (100-H4 MA) and 1.2210 (near 50-H4 MA). A break above resistance at 1.2430 (top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud, downtrend line) suggests a further uplift towards the resistances at 1.2480, 1.2500 and 1.2550.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12902

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" going to act as a support
3/17/2017

We’ve got a bearish “Tower” on the nearest resistance area. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the lower “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

There’s an “Engulfing”, which has been confirmed. So, the price is likely going to achieve the closest support and the 55 Moving Average, which both could be a departure point for another bullish rally.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12903

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears going to deliver new local low
3/17/2017

here’s a bullish “Hammer”, which hasn’t been confirmed. Also, the last candles are bearish, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest “Window”. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction.

The price is consolidating, so the upper “Window” is acting as a resistance. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver a new local low during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12904

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: outlook for March 20-24
3/17/2017

USD/CAD slumped to 1.3280 after the FOMC meeting. The decline was short-lived, however. Towards the end of the week, the greenback revived its bullish momentum and rose to 1.3330.

Next week we will be waiting for a number of economic releases: retail sales and inflation figures from Canada, existing home sales and current account data from the US. Canadian annual budget release might become an additional market trigger. Another focus will be on the Fed Chair Janet Yellen and FOMC officials’ speeches scheduled for Thursday and Friday respectively.

At the present moment, USD/CAD is trading tightly near the 100-day MA (around 1.3300 level) consolidating after Wednesday’s impressive decline. A further support can be found at 1.3280 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud). If it is broken the quote will slide further towards 1.3215 (200-H4 MA), or 1.3115. A break of resistances at 1.3385/1.3420 will be a signal of the restoration of the uptrend.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12905

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave (i) started
3/17/2017

It’s likely that wave [ii] ended on the four-hours chart. Therefore, if a pullback from 8/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have bearish wave (i). The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level.

There’s a possible diagonal triangle in wave (c) of [ii]. So, bears are likely going to deliver wave i. If a pullback from 6/8 MM Level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a local upward correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12907

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, March 20th
3/19/2017

* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 01:50 CT (Central Time) * UPDATED

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 68 625 ? + 364 591 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0764; 1.0790; 1.0826; 1.0867
Closest support levels 1.0740; 1.0698; 1.0659; 1.0635
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0740 (or from 1.0764), with target points at 1.0698 and 1.0659
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0764 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0790 and 1.0826

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest - 21 ? + 192 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2424; 1.2453; 1.2476; 1.2512
Closest support levels 1.2392; 1.2362; 1.2340; 1.2314
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2392 (or from 1.2424), with target points at 1.2362 and 1.2340
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2424 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2453 and 1.2476


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 94 ? + 156 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3353; 1.3378; 1.3417; 1.3472
Closest support levels 1.3321; 1.3298; 1.3275; 1.3240
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3353, with the target points at 1.3378 and 1.3417
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3321 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3298 and 1.3275

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12912

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: loonie wants to be set free
3/20/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, after the implementation of the intermediate target in the "Crab" inverted pattern, there was a trend reversal. A downward trading channel was formed. If the "bear" manage to push prices below the important level of 1.3306 (38.2% of the last descending long-term wave), there is a risk of further dip towards 1.31.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the quotes approached the lower border of the upward trading channel. If it is broken and the support at 1.329 is tested it will allow the "bears" to count on the implementation of the 200% target in the A = CD pattern (1,317).

Recommendation: SELL 1,329 SL 1,3345 TP1 1,317 TP2 1,31.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12913

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: bulls are going to attack
3/21/2017

On the EUR/JPY daily chart, there is a transformation of the inverted "Shark" pattern into 5-0. The return of quotes to the level of 121.8 (23.6% of the CD wave) will increase the risks of recovery of the uptrend. In contrast, a successful test of the support at 120.65 can lead to the development of correction towards 120.5 and 119.95 levels.

On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, 121.4 is the immediate resistance level. Its breakout will activate the inverted "Shark" pattern with the target of 122.45. A more secure entry point to BUY is the area of the upper boundary of the downward trading channel.

Recommendation: BUY 122,8 SL 122,25 TP 123,8.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12932