Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears going to test the nearest support
3/24/2017

The last bearish “Engulfing” hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving down towards the nearest support level. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction.

The 34 Moving Average acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a confirmed “Engulfing” on this line. In this case, bears are likely going to continue pushing the price lower, so we could have a new low soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13000

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave 2 is going to be ended
3/24/2017

Wave 2 is taking form of a double zigzag. The main intraday target for wave (c) of [y] is +2/8 MM Level. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish wave.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a diagonal triangle in wave v of (c). Therefore, bulls are likely going to deliver a new local high during the day. If a pullback from the upper side of the triangle be on the table, bears will probably try to deliver a local correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13001

 

[riki143]

EUR/CAD reversed from key support level 1.4370
3/24/2017

EUR/CAD reversed from key support level 1.4370
Next buy targets - 1.4500 and 1.4600
EUR/CAD continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the key support level 1.4370 (former strong resistance level from December, acting as support now after it was broken previously by the active minor C-wave which belongs to the intermediate ABC correction (B) from the middle of February.

EUR/CAD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4500 (which reversed the price earlier this month) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.4600.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13002

 

[riki143]

CAD/CHF broke key support level 0.7450
3/24/2017

CAD/CHF broke key support level 0.7450
Next sell target - 0.7350
CAD/CHF continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the key support level 0.7450 (which stopped the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in December, as can be seen below). The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate downward impulse wave (1) from the start of December.

CAD/CHF is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 0.7350 (target price for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13003

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, March 27th
3/25/2017

* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 01:50 CT (Central Time) * UPDATED

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 3 479 ? - 117 309 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0817; 1.0850; 1.0871; 1.0903-11
Closest support levels 1.0787; 1.0738; 1.0693; 1.0667
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0787 (or from 1.0817), with target points at 1.0738 and 1.0693
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0817 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0850 and 1.0871

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 12 ? + 97 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2491; 1.2525-30; 1.2562; 1.2597
Closest support levels 1.2476; 1.2429; 1.2399; 1.2364
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2476 (or from 1.2525), with target points at 1.2429 and 1.2399
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2491 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2525 and 1.2562

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 142 ? + 113 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3392; 1.3421; 1.3472; 1.3497
Closest support levels 1.3342; 1.3316; 1.3277; 1.3252
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3392 (or from 1.3342), with the target points at 1.3421 and 1.3472
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3342 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3316 and 1.3277

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13004

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound is going to 5-W highs
3/27/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2500, 1.2450; resistance – 1.2550.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2550; SL — 1.2570; TP1 — 1.2500; TP2 — 1.2450.

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Kijun-sen; the prices are under daily resistance.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13005

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie supported by SSB
3/27/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7600/20, 0.7570; resistance – 0.7670, 0.7700.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7620/30; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7670; TP2 — 0.7700.

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are supported by bottom border of the Cloud.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/13006/03-audusdh4(92).png[/IG]

More:
[URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13006]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13006[/URL]

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: gap formation was favorable for bulls
3/27/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is an uptrend developing towards 161.8% ? 88.6% targets in the AB=CD and Bat patterns. There was a gap on the technical chart. The bulls managed to test the resistance at 1.0822. Until quotes are still above this level, the control over the pair will in bulls' hands.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, to launch the counterattack the bears need to get the signals from the Three movements pattern. For this to happen, the bulls should fail the test of the resistance at 1.087, then, prices should slide below the support at 1.0825.

Recommendation: hold longs (BUY 1,0775 SL 1,072 TP1 1,086 TP2 1,104), until quotes are above 1.082.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13007

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: kiwi wants to rise higher
3/27/2017

On the NZD/USD daily chart, bulls managed to return quotes to the upper border of the downward trading channel. If they manage to test it successfully, there will be a continuation of the rally towards 0.711 and 0.717. In contrast, the rollback from upper border can lead to the realization of 5-0 pattern.

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, quotes are moving within the upward trading channel. it tells us that the control over the pair is in the bulls' hands. A successful test of the resistance at 0.707 followed by the update of March high will activate the AB=CD pattern. Its 200% target is located near 0.718.

Recommendation: BUY 0,707 SL 0,7015 TP 0,718.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13008

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for March 27
3/27/2017

The US dollar ran out of steam in the Tokyo morning. It has weakened significantly against a basket currencies. The main fundamental factor that fueled USD sell-off was President Donald Trump’s failure to replace the 2010 Affordable Care Act (commonly known as Obamacare). The defeat on the US healthcare legislation raised investors’ concerns over Mr. Trump’s ability to push through other policies suggested by his administration. US political focus now shifts to long-awaited tax reform, arguably a more important piece of legislation (especially for equity markets).

EUR/USD jumped to 1.0845 in the opening hours of Asian session ripping through 1.0825/30 hurdles in its path. A bullish momentum is still intact. The euro may rise towards the next resistance lines at 1.0870/1.0875. One of the fundamental factors that boosted EUR buying was a big win of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative in a regional election held at the weekend. Exit polling showed that CDU (Merkel’s party) won 40.1%. it’s a great result in the countdown to the parliamentary elections scheduled for September 24, 2017. In the economic front, there will be German Ifo Business climate. The consensus forecast shows an increase. The upbeat data will send the euro higher.

Aussie fell to 0.7630 against the greenback in today’s session. The upper border of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe serves as a sturdy support for the prices. AUD may weaken further towards 0.7605, 0.7545 unless it manages to reclaim 0.7700.

Kiwi surged to 0.7055 in the morning. It has all chance to rise further towards the nearest hurdles at 0.7088, 0.7115 (the lower border of Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe). The economic calendar is empty for NZD/USD today.

The British pound spiked to 1.2530 on the USD weakness resulted from the rejection of the Trumpcare bill. A focus shifted to tax reforms now. They will likely fill a lot of headlines ahead of March 29 (the Brexit deadline). On Wednesday, the UK PM Theresa May will trigger Article 50. A European response is expected within 48 hours thereafter.

USD/CAD was trading lower at the end of the Asian session. The prices are hovering around the 1.3330 at the present moment. On the downside, there is a strong support lying at 1.3280. The immediate resistance can be found at 1.3410. Oil prices lowered to $50.45 on the session as investors saw that OPEC-led output cuts don’t reduce the US crude oil inventories. At the weekend meeting ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers agreed to review the question of whether the output cut deal should be extended by six months or not.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13009

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Breakaway Gap" pushed the price higher
3/27/2017

There’s a “Pennant”, which upper side has been broken, so we’ve got a “Breakaway Gap”. Therefore, the price faced a resistance at 1.0850. However, the market is likely going to achieve the next resistance at 1.0873 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0811.

We’ve got a “Breakaway Gap”, so the price is consolidating. Also, there’s a “Pennant”, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.0873. If bulls be stopped by this level, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.0811.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13011

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Triple Bottom" led to new high
3/27/2017

The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.2522, so we’ve got a “Pennant”. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.2569 – 1.2581 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be a chance to have a downward correction.

We’ve got a “Triple Bottom”, which has been confirmed by the last “Breakaway Gap”. In this case, the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.2569. Considering a possible pullback from this level, we should keep an eye on the closest support at 1.2506 – 1.2492 as an intraday bearish target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13012

 

[riki143]

Oil market overview
3/27/2017

At the weekend, a joint committee of energy ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries pledged to consider extending output deal cut for additional 6 months.

Venezuela’s Oil Minister Nelson Martinez supported the idea of deal extension. Iraq, Algeria and Angola also said that they would back a prolongation of the deal. Mohammed Al Rumhy, energy minister of non-OPEC producer Oman, said that a further extension of the supply reducing deal looks expedient. Kuwait was the first nation calling for extension of output cut agreement.

The biggest OPEC supplier Saudi Arabia has indicated that it won’t be against the prolongation of the agreement if global crude oil stockpiles remain above their five-year average.

There are several factors that undermined the effectiveness of the November supply reduction deals: low seasonal demand, refinery maintenance, rising non-OPEC supply (the recent estimate of compliance rate of the non-OPEC members reached 64%). A further extension of the deal could be a rational decision once the impact of aforementioned factors is eliminated.

Russia Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that the country is not ready to support a possible extension of oil-supply cuts in the second half of the year, even if the majority of oil suppliers acknowledge their contribution to the reduction of global oil stockpiles. He also said that Russia won’t make any pledges until April as it needs more time to assess the oil market, inventories and US drilling activity and non-OPEC countries’ production. This was a massive drag for oil prices.

Additional factor that led to the quotes’ downfall was Baker Hughes rig count data released last Friday. It revealed that the number of active US rigs drilling for oil increased by 21. It was the tenth weekly increase in a row.

Brent oil futures slumped to $50.60 in the opening hours of Monday’s session.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13013

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Three Methods" pushing the price higher
3/27/2017

The price is still rising and there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Also, we’ve got a new “Window”, which is likely going to act as a support soon. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new high.

The last “Window” is still open. At the same time, we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, bulls are likely going to continue pushing the market even higher until any bearish pattern arrives.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13014

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: unstoppable bears
3/27/2017

The price is still declining, so we don’t have any reversal pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support in the short term. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an option to have an upward correction.

We’ve got a new “Window”, which is still open. Also, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, so the price is likely going to test the closes support level, which could be a departure point to a bullish correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13015

 

[riki143]

Ed Seykota’s profile: common man with great achievements
3/27/2017

Every journalist even mediocre one without a spark of talent before writing an article should think of the structure of his future writing. And I must admit it is a rather stiff task especially when you’re challenged with writing about one man’s uneventful life vividly only in order to make a note of his great achievement. I was faced with such task when I was asked to write about Ed Seykota, a person whose life is not marked with some bright events, but whose contribution to trading activities is invaluable. So, pondering over the article’s structure, I’ve decided not to burden you with dull descriptions of Seykota’s life (in the end, I’m not a Wikipedia), but to focus only on his educational background, career and some other facts.

General information

Professional trader Ed Seykota is a Netherlands-born American commodity trader.

He graduated with degrees in Electrical engineering from MIT and Management from the MIT Sloan School of Management. He started his experiments with trading systems in the 1970s when he had only a few punched card computers to test his genius market ideas.

Career

In 1960, Ed decided to go long on silver after the US Treasury stopped selling it (trend following is one of the most favorable Seykota’s trading strategies). He lost his money on this silver trade and a copper one, but learned a hard lesson about the market’s susceptibility to the news.

Later on, he started working for one futures brokerage house. It was the time when he first tried his computerized trading system based on exponential moving averages. Afterwards, he decided to venture out on his own firm and manage of some of his client’s accounts. During that time, he gained eminent profits trading with the help of his computerized trading systems. The accounts Seykota managed showed an absolutely outstanding rate of return (starting with just $5,000 and earning 15, 000 000 in 12 years).

Some other facts

In 1992, Ed gathered a group of traders to discuss their emotions which according to Market Wizard Seykota (Jack Schwager included interview with Seykota in his famous book about the most successful traders of his time “Market Wizards”), are the key spoilers of trade. All together they managed to gather a set of common practices that help to avoid big losses and support personal growth. Seykota described them in his book The Trading Tribe 2005.

Seykota prefers trading mostly from his home office generating trade signals from his computer programs. A part of his time he spends on mentoring traders through his website.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13016

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF reached sell target 0.9890
3/27/2017

USD/CHF reached sell target 0.9890
Next sell target - 0.9750
USD/CHF continues to fall sharply – following the earlier breakout of the pivotal support level 0.9890 (which stopped the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in January and which was set as the sell target in our previous forecasts for this currency pair). The breakout of the support level 0.9890 intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair.

USD/CHF is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.9750 (forecast price for the termination of the active intermediate impulse wave (1)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13017

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD broke resistance zone
3/27/2017

EUR/AUD broke resistance zone
Next buy target - 1.4400
EUR/AUD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the combined resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4180 (which stopped the previous sharp (a)-wave earlier this month), the 100-day moving average, resistance trendline of the wide daily down channel from 2016 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave (i) from December.

EUR/AUD is expected to rise further in the active minor ABC correction (ii) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4400.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13018

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: the yen is accelerating its pace
3/28/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, quotes returned to the borders of the downward trading channel. The bears regained control over the pair. We expect the continuation of the downward movements towards i108.8 (50% of the last long-term upward wave) and 107.7 (target 200% in the AB = CD pattern). The nearest important resistance levels can be found near 111.15 and 111.55-111.75.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the quotes are sliding towards 161.8% and 224% targets in the AB = CD patterns (109.5-109.7). If they go out from the downward trading channel, it will lead to the correction to 111.45-111.55.

Recommendation: SELL 111,55 SL 112,10 TP 109,7.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13022

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: bears are heading to the south
3/28/2017

On the USD/CHFdaily chart, there is an implementation of 5-0, "Shark" and AB = CD patterns. Their 88.6% and 161.8% targets allow us to identify the convergence zone (0.9615-0.9665). In this area, the probability of a trend reversal is high. To remain control over the "bears", it is necessary to keep quotes below the 0.9855 level.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the expanding wedge reversal pattern has been realized. After the breakouts of the supports at 0.9927 and 0.9896, the market is under the bears' control now. In such circumstances, the best strategy would be selling on the rise of quotes towards resistances at 0.995 and 0.999.

Recommendation: SELL 0,995 SL 1,0005 TP1 0,982 TP2 0,9665.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13023