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Analysis of margin levels for 22.04.2025 #EURUSD​

EURUSD: BUY 1.14375–1.15055, TP1-1.15735, TP2-1.18105.​

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at quotes 1.07800-1.08200. At the moment the pair is investing higher, indicating the strength of buyers.EURUSD: BUY 1.14375-1.15055, TP1-1.15735, TP2-1.18105.



- Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range, at 1.13450-1.13750. At the moment the pair is investing higher, indicating the strength of buyers.

- The area of favorable prices for purchase from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 21.04.2025.

- The quotation of the upper border of the zone 1/4-1.15055.

- The quote of the upper boundary of the zone 1/2-1.14375.

- Intraday targets: updating the highs from 21.04.2025-1.15735.

- Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the 1/2-1.18105 zone.EURUSD: BUY 1.14375-1.15055, TP1-1.15735, TP2-1.18105.

​

- Investment recommendations: buying from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.

Trading recommendation: Buy: 1.14375-1.15055, Take Profit 1-1.15735, Take Profit 2-1.18105.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 23.04.2025 USDJPY
USDJPY:

​

The Japanese yen (JPY) declined against its US counterpart for a second straight day on Wednesday and retreated further from the multi-month peak reached the previous day. The Trump administration officials' comforting comments on US-China trade talks triggered a sharp rebound in global risk sentiment, which in turn had a strong impact on traditional safe-haven assets, including the yen. Moreover, a slight recovery in the US dollar (USD) from multi-year lows, supported by easing concerns over Federal Reserve (Fed) independence, pushed the USD/JPY pair to a one-week high, a level above 143.00 during the Asian session.

Growing optimism that the US and Japan are moving closer to a temporary trade agreement is helping the yen, which reacted weakly to unimpressive domestic PMIs, to pause its intraday decline. In addition, strengthening expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates in 2025 is keeping JPY bears from betting aggressively. Meanwhile, investors are losing confidence in the US economy amid Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policy. This, as well as bets that the Fed will soon resume its rate-cutting cycle, is holding back the dollar and taking the USD/JPY pair below 142.00 in the last hour.

Trading recommendation: SELL 141.70, SL 142.10, TP 140.50

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 24.04.2025 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 93400, SL 92200, TP 96500​

The whole last trading day was devoted to fixing by the buyers of the previously achieved positive results for them. Earlier, such seemingly successful price movements were immediately followed by a reaction from the sellers, which immediately nullified all the efforts made by the buyers. This time everything looks different. The price has grown confidently enough, having managed to withstand the started pressure and now, apparently, is ready to continue growing further.

All this is due to the formation of an upward impulse, in which the third wave is now developing. It is expected to continue during the next trading day, so previously opened buy positions should be kept in operation.

Investment idea: BUY 93400, SL 92200, TP 96500.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 28.04.2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

​

The EUR/USD pair continues to weaken for the second consecutive session, trading near 1.1360 during Asian hours on Monday. The pair is under pressure as the US dollar (USD) strengthens amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.

On Friday, China exempted some imported goods from the US from 125% tariffs, according to business sources. The move fueled hopes that the long-running trade war between the world's two largest economies may be coming to an end.

On Sunday, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said, as reported by Reuters, that the Trump administration was in daily talks with China over tariffs. Rollins emphasized that talks are ongoing and that trade agreements with other countries are also “very close.”

Despite these comments, Reuters on Friday quoted a Chinese embassy spokesman who strongly denied there were any talks with the United States, saying, “China and the United States are not engaged in any consultations or negotiations on tariffs.” The spokesman urged Washington to “stop creating confusion.” In addition, Beijing's spokesman reiterated Thursday that there are no “economic and trade negotiations” and emphasized that the U.S. should “fully lift all unilateral tariff measures” to pave the way for talks.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1370, SL 1.400, TP 1.1290

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 29.04.2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 95200, SL 94300, TP 100000

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The situation on the asset under consideration has undergone minimal changes over the past time. The desire to grow still remains, but desperate attempts of sellers to stop this movement are slowing everything down. During the past day there was an attempt to renew the local maximum, but suddenly activated sales cooled all the ardour of buyers. As a result, the price remained at the previous values.

For this reason, expectations of further growth, designed to complete the formation of the upward impulse, are still the same. The potential of the movement, although small, but still gives an opportunity to make some profit, so it is recommended to keep the previously opened buy positions in operation.

Investment idea: BUY 95200, SL 94300, TP 100000.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 30.04.2025 GBPUSD


​

Event to watch out for today:

15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP Change in the US

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair continues to fall for the second consecutive session, hovering near 1.3390 during Asian trading on Wednesday. The pair has been under pressure as the US dollar has strengthened amid renewed optimism over trade developments between the US and China. Traders are now turning their attention to the upcoming release of the March Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, which is a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's exchange rate against six major currencies, remains above 99.00, suggesting U.S. Treasury yields are rising. The 2-year and 10-year US bond yields broke a four-day losing streak and were trading around 3.66 per cent and 4.17 per cent respectively at the time of writing.

On the data front, the JOLTS US job openings report released on Tuesday showed a decline in the number of open positions to 7.19 million in March - the lowest level since September 2024 - indicating a cooling in labour demand. The figure fell short of expectations and emphasised growing economic uncertainty.

Adding to GBP/USD's decline are rising expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut rates at its May meeting. Lower inflation expectations in the United Kingdom (UK) and increasing global economic factors favour a rate hike.

Bank of England Governor Megan Green recently stated that tariffs proposed by US President Donald Trump could lead to lower inflation in the UK, although significant uncertainties remain over the broader economic impact and recent tax hikes for employers.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3390, SL 1.3420, TP 1.3300

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Margin analysis of the market for 01.05.2025 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: SELL 3266.72-3304.22, TP1-3229.22, TP2-3151.32.​

- Long-term trend: Long. The maximum volume concentration of the current contract is located in the range of 3300.00–3330.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are taking place below this range, indicating buyer weakness.



- Medium-term trend: Short. The maximum volume concentration of the medium-term trend is located in the range of 3305.00–3320.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.

- The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin requirements is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the low of 01.05.2025.

- The quote for the lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is 3266.72.

- The quote for the lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is 3304.22.

- Intraday targets: Updating the lows from 01.05.2025 – 3229.22.

- Medium-term targets: Test of the lower boundary of the ZNKZ (likely a specific technical zone or indicator) – 3151.32.



- Trading recommendations: Sell from the favorable price range upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

- Sell: 3266.72-3304.22, Take Profit 1 – 3229.22, Take Profit 2 – 3151.32.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 02.05.2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls

GBPUSD:

​

The GBP/USD pair is showing downward momentum, falling towards the 1.3275 level during the Asian session on Friday. Some support for the US dollar (USD) is provided against the backdrop of positive signals regarding the prospects of trade negotiations between the United States and China. In the future, market participants will pay special attention to the publication of the April US employment report, which includes key indicators: non-farm payrolls (NFP), unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.

On Friday morning, Chinese officials said they were ready to consider resuming trade talks with the US. This was the first positive signal since US President Donald Trump announced in April that he would raise import tariffs. The easing of tensions in trade relations between the world's two largest economies and hopes for a resumption of dialog contribute to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, thereby putting pressure on the position of the pound sterling.

According to the data published on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended April 26 increased to 241 thousand, exceeding both the revised value of the previous week (223 thousand) and the market consensus (224 thousand). In addition, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Business Activity Index (PMI) fell to 48.7 in April from the previous reading of 49.0, despite a forecast of 48.0.

At the same time, the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey emphasized that the regulator needs to take into account the potential risks associated with global trade tensions caused by the US tariff policy. Increased uncertainty amid possible escalation of trade conflicts prompts investors to reconsider expectations about further actions of the Bank of England. According to a Reuters poll, financial markets estimate the probability of the base interest rate cut by 25 basis points to the level of 4.25% at the end of the meeting scheduled for May 8 at almost 96%.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3310, SL 1.3280, TP 1.3380

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 05.05.2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention today:

17:00 EET. USD- ISM Services Business Activity Index from ISM

USDJPY:

​

The Japanese yen (JPY) traded with a slight positive bias against its U.S. counterpart for the second consecutive day on Monday amid a rebound in demand for the safe-haven currency, although the gains are not bullish. Despite signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China, US President Donald Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policy has kept investors on edge. In addition, geopolitical risks are weighing on investor sentiment and providing some support to the yen. In addition, the moderate weakening of the US Dollar (USD) is pushing the USD/JPY pair towards 144.00 during the Asian session.

However, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) ‘restrained’ pause last Thursday may deter JPY bulls from aggressive bets. In fact, the BoJ lowered its economic growth and inflation forecasts for the current year, causing market participants to cut bets on an immediate interest rate hike. In addition, traders may refrain from aggressive bearish bets on the dollar and prefer to step aside ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday. This could serve as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair and limit any corrective decline from the multi-week high reached on Friday.

Trading recomendation: BUY 144.20, SL 144.00, TP 144.90

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 06.05.2025 #NQ100

#NQ100. BUY: 20200, SL: 19025, TP: 21500.


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During the last trading day there were no cardinal changes in the market situation. The cost of the asset is striving for further growth. Having overcome the local maximum, buyers are fixing at new price levels, simultaneously preparing the base for continuation of the upward movement. As mentioned earlier, the current ascent is considered as wave (b) within the corrective movement, which has the form of a narrowing horizontal triangle. This forms an attractive potential for the movement, which is worth trying to capitalise on by opening buy trades. The target of the expected growth is located near the previously fixed absolute maximum, so the profit should be fixed in advance. Investment idea: BUY 20200, SL 19025, TP 21500.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 7, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Key Interest Rate Decision

21:30 EET. USD - FOMC Press Conference

EURUSD:


​

EUR/USD failed to hold on Tuesday, marking a new short-term consolidation range near the key 1.1300 mark as traders wait for a reason to move. The key event this week is the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate announcement in the middle of the week, which has pinned investor sentiment to the pole for now.
The Fed's upcoming rate decision on Wednesday remains the focus of markets this week. While many expect the Fed to maintain current rates, investors will be closely monitoring comments from policymakers, especially Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, for any signs that the shift to a rate-cutting cycle may occur sooner than expected.
Recently, the Fed has been facing increasing pressure to lower interest rates. Market participants have consistently sought lower funding costs, and the Trump administration has been particularly vocal in insisting that the Fed must cut rates to ease the cost of servicing US debt. However, this stance runs counter to the Fed's dual mandate of promoting full employment and controlling price stability, which President Donald Trump does not appear to be taking into account.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1350, SL 1.1330, TP 1.1440

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Market Fundamental Analysis for May 8, 2025 GBPUSD

Events to pay attention today:

15:30 EET. USD - Number of Initial Jobless Claims

14:00 EET. USD - Bank of England Key Interest Rate Decision

GBPUSD:
​

GBP/USD was down six-tenths of a per cent on Wednesday as markets continued to hold on to the safe-haven US dollar. The Federal Reserve (Fed) left rates unchanged as markets had expected, but Fed policymakers, still adopting a wait-and-see stance, curbed risk appetite during the midweek market session. The Bank of England (BoE) will hold its own rate meeting on Thursday and is expected to cut rates by another quarter point.

Forex Today: All eyes on the Bank of England

Market sentiment declined after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. He said that US trade tariffs could hamper the Fed's inflation and employment targets this year. Powell warned that continued policy instability could force the Fed to take a ‘wait-and-see’ approach to interest rates. While the Trump administration's tariffs have weighed heavily on consumer and business sentiment, the lack of significant negative economic data makes it difficult for the Fed to justify an immediate change in interest rates.

Powell: The right thing to do is to wait for further clarity

The Bank of England is expected to cut the rate by a further quarter point at its upcoming meeting on Thursday, marking the fourth rate cut since it peaked in 2023. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote nine to one in favour of another rate cut in an attempt to support the faltering UK economy.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3330, SL 1.3350, TP 1.3230

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 12, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

​

The Japanese yen (JPY) hit a one-month low against the U.S. dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Monday, reacting to optimism over trade deals between the U.S. and China. On Sunday, the US and China concluded trade talks in Switzerland on a positive note, which boosted investor confidence and undermined demand for traditional safe-haven assets including the yen. In addition, worries over Japan's growth prospects amid uncertainty over US tariffs further weighed on the yen. On the other hand, the US dollar has received support from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish pause earlier this month and easing fears of a US recession.

However, traders may refrain from aggressive bets and prefer to wait for a joint statement from the US and China on trade talks in Geneva. In addition, favorable Japanese household spending data released on Friday bolstered the case for further Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy normalization and should help limit deeper yen losses. Meanwhile, the prospects for further interest rate hikes by the BoJ are strongly at odds with expectations of at least three rate cuts by the Fed. This, in turn, calls for some caution before positioning for a continuation of the USD/JPY pair's recent good recovery from its low for the year, a level just below the psychological 140.00 mark.

Trading recommendation: SELL 146.00, SL 146.40, TP 144.90

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 13.05.2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

EURUSD: BUY 1.1125, SL 1.1090, TP 1.1350

​

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The price did not continue developing the correction driven by wave b of y and instead immediately moved down to complete the entire corrective structure. The resulting movement resembles a completed downward impulse. This suggests that the entire complex correction — which took the form of a double zigzag — is now complete. A weak attempt at an upward move is already underway. Cautious long positions can be considered here, with a protective stop-loss placed at the recently formed local low. The nearest target for this upward movement is at the 1.1350 level.

Investment idea: BUY 1.1125, SL 1.1090, TP 1.1350.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for May 14, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:


​

The EUR/USD pair rose on Tuesday, recovering most of the losses from earlier in the week. The pair is currently retesting the 1.1200 mark thanks to a general weakening of the US Dollar in the broad market, rather than any particular bullish momentum in the Euro market.

Market reaction to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday was mostly subdued. Investors remain optimistic that ongoing trade deal negotiations between the Trump administration and various parties will keep sentiment positive, although all trade tariff concessions offered by the Trump team were purely temporary in nature.

US CPI inflation fell slightly in April, hitting a new three-year low on an annualised basis for core inflation. However, the Trump administration's approach of imposing triple-digit tariffs on key trading partners is expected to start to have an impact as early as May, so market experts expect this to be the last strong CPI report for some time.

Also due for release on Thursday is pan-European gross domestic product (GDP) data for the first quarter, but average market forecasts expect the figures to be similar to the previous quarter.

In the US, the second half of the trading week is scheduled for the release of Producer Price Index (PPI) data and the latest consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. On Thursday, the US PPI inflation data will be released, and on Friday, important consumer sentiment data will be released.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1200, SL 1.1180 , TP 1.1300

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for 15.05.2025 #NQ100
#NQ100: BUY 20779.8-21057.3, TP1-21334.8, TP2-22055.0.​

• Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at the quotations 19720.0-19930.0. At the moment #NQ100 is making investment transactions higher, indicating the strength of buyers.

​

• Medium-term tendency: in longing. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range, at quotes 19740.0-19890.0 and 21130.0-21260.0. At the moment, #NQ100 is making investment transactions higher, indicating the strength of buyers.

• The area of favorable prices for buying from the point of view of margin support, is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 14.05.2025.

• The quotation of the upper border of the zone 1/4-21057.3.

• The quote of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone-20779.8.

• Intraday targets: renewal of the highs from 14.05.2025-21334.8.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the SNKZ - 22055.0.

​

• Investment recommendations: buying from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.

• Buy: 20779.8-21057.3, Take Profit 1-21334.8, Take Profit 2-22055.0.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 19, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:
​

The GBP/USD pair demonstrated resilience by recovering from the previous session's losses, trading in the vicinity of the 1.3300 level during the Asian session on Monday. The recovery was primarily driven by renewed pressure on the US dollar (USD) following Moody's Investors Service's downgrade of the US credit rating by one notch, from Aaa to Aa1. The agency has cited rising debt levels and the increasing burden of interest payments as the main reasons for concern.

This move follows previous downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor's in 2011. Moody's has forecast that the US federal debt will rise to approximately 134 per cent of GDP by 2035, up from 98 per cent in 2023. The federal budget deficit is projected to widen to almost 9% of GDP, driven by higher debt service costs, increased social spending and lower tax revenues.

A number of weak US economic indicators have reinforced expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell sharply to 50.8 in May from 52.2 in April, representing the lowest reading since June 2022 and marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Analysts had forecast a rise to 53.4.

Despite these unfavourable factors, the US dollar may receive some support from the easing of global trade tensions. The US and China have reached a provisional trade agreement that includes substantial tariff reductions. The United States will decrease its tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce its tariffs from 125% to 10%.

Market sentiment is also supported by optimism over a possible US-Iran nuclear deal and upcoming talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at de-escalating the conflict in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the British pound (GBP) is gaining momentum, helped by stronger than expected UK GDP data released on Thursday. Both monthly and quarterly figures demonstrated robust economic growth, thereby reinforcing the likelihood that the Bank of England (BoE) may opt to maintain the current interest rate should inflation remain stable or exhibit further acceleration.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3315, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3400

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 20.05.2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 105450, SL 106800, TP 98500


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Bitcoin did not follow through on the expected corrective decline, instead reversing sharply to the upside. As a result, the price has returned to the previously set local high, and it now trades near the all-time high, which is acting as strong resistance. The likelihood of a quick breakout through this level seems low. Additionally, the wave structure still points to the need for a pullback — likely forming wave [ii]. Therefore, a downward correction is expected in the near term, supporting the idea of initiating short positions.

Investment idea: SELL 105450, SL 106800, TP 98500.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 21, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

​

The Japanese yen (JPY) hit a new two-week high against a weaker US dollar (USD) during Wednesday's Asian session despite disappointing Japanese trade balance data. Investors are now convinced that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again in 2025 amid fears of broader and more entrenched price growth in Japan. These expectations were confirmed by “tough” comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Shin'ichi Uchida earlier this week, which continue to have a positive impact on the Yen exchange rate.

In addition, hopes of a trade deal between the US and Japan offset the overall positive risk-off tone and had little impact on the prevailing bullish sentiment around the safe-haven Japanese Yen. On the other hand, the US Dollar remains depressed amid growing confidence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will further reduce borrowing costs, as well as an unexpected downgrade of the US government's sovereign credit rating. This contributes to the USD/JPY pair's decline towards 144.00 and supports the prospects for further downside in the near term.

Trading recommendation: SELL 143.80, SL 144.20, TP 142.90

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