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Fundamental analysis of the market for 21.02.2024 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

11:00 EET. EUR - Composite PMI

16:45 EET. USD - Composite PMI

EURUSD:
​

EUR/USD is trading unchanged near 1.0500 during the early Asian session on Friday. However, Trump's tariff threats could put pressure on the euro (EUR) against the US dollar. Later on Friday, the extended manufacturing and HCOB services PMIs for Germany and the euro bloc countries will be released.

Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ended February 15 rose to 219K, up from the previous week's revised 214K (from 213K), the US Department of Labor (DoL) showed on Thursday. The figure was above the market consensus of 215 thousand. The reports did not change expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain a wait-and-see attitude for months to come.

Meanwhile, Trump said Wednesday that he will announce new tariffs within the next month, adding lumber and forest products to previously announced plans to impose duties on imported cars, semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. Trump's latest tariff plans could spark fears of trade tensions, undermining the euro in the near term.

In addition, rising bets on further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) could contribute to the euro's decline. Analysts expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut rates by a quarter point at each meeting until mid-2025. This will lead to a deposit rate cut to 2.0%.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.0500, SL 1.0530, TP 1.0410

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 24.02.2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:
​

The Pound-Dollar pair starts the new week on a positive note and rises above the mid-1.2600s during the Asian session, approaching the more than two-month high reached on Friday. The dollar fell to a more than two-month low amid concerns over the health of US consumers.

The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues to receive support from Friday's UK retail sales data, which rose 1.7% in January compared to an upwardly revised -0.6% in the previous month. In addition, the UK services PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.1 in February from 50.9 in the previous month. This largely overshadowed the fall in the UK manufacturing PMI to a 14-month low of 46.4 in February.

GBP/USD, meanwhile, seems unaffected by the Bank of England's (BoE) gloomy outlook and remains at the mercy of USD price action. In the absence of any market-important economic releases, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. This, in turn, supports the prospects for continuation of the established uptrend seen over the last month or so.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2650, SL 1.2620, TP 1.2730

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 25.02.2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - CB Consumer Confidence

EURUSD: SELL 1.0450, SL 1.0475, TP 1.0300

​

The euro managed to gather strength and make a surge upwards to update the local high. However, it lacked the power to update the peak of the year. The price quickly reversed and plummeted. Now, this entire upward movement strongly resembles another diagonal triangle. It could turn out that a zigzag has formed, consisting of an initial diagonal triangle as Wave a and a terminal diagonal triangle as Wave b, but confirmation is required.

In any case, in the near term, the price is likely to decline. For now, this decline is regarded as Wave 2 in an upward impulsive movement. The current situation is favorable for entering sell trades.
Investment idea: SELL 1.0450, SL 1.0475, TP 1.0300.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 26.02.2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

​

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair experienced a slight rebound, allowing the cable to retrace to the upper boundary of the short-term consolidation and hold bid near the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).US consumer sentiment declined in February, adding to concerns of slowing economic growth, with US President Donald Trump reiterating his intention to impose stiff import taxes on his citizens as a trade war threat against the US's closest trading partners.

Despite weakening consumer sentiment, driven mainly by concerns over President Trump's tariff packages, the cable markets remained positive on Tuesday.Despite a new round of attempts by President Trump to start a trade war, markets continue to believe that the US President will find a reason to put aside his own tariff threats at the 11th hour.

The data calendar for the US and UK has relatively few items scheduled for Wednesday, although the market is anticipating the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. Friday will conclude the week with the release of updated US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data, a key indicator that investors hope will show that the recent rise in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has not affected core inflation.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2650, SL 1.2600, TP 1.2730

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 28.02.2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

​

The Japanese yen (JPY) attracted fresh buyers during the Asian session on Friday after sharp remarks from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, who said the core inflation rate is gradually rising towards the 2% target. Uchida's comments confirm bets that the BoJ will continue to raise interest rates this year, which helps offset weaker than expected Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and provides a slight lift to the yen. In addition, the risk-off impulse is seen as another factor contributing to the yen's continued safe-haven status.

Meanwhile, the flow of anti-risk sentiment provokes a new decline in US Treasury bond yields. As a result, the narrowing rate differential between the US and Japan is fuelling inflows towards the lower-yielding yen. This, along with weak US Dollar (USD) price action, is causing the USD/JPY pair to move back below the mid-149.00s. However, traders seem reluctant to make aggressive directional bets and prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, which will play a key role in USD price dynamics.

Trade recommendation: SELL 149.20, SL 149.70, TP 148.40

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 3.03.2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:


​

The pair's recovery was driven by the weakening of the US Dollar (USD) after the release of Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data on Friday.

The US PCE inflation report met expectations: the monthly core PCE remained at 0.3%. Core PCE rose slightly to 0.3% from December's 0.2%, and annualised core PCE came in at 2.6%, slightly above forecasts but unchanged from December's reading. The core PCE fell to 2.6% from a revised 2.9% in December.

Meanwhile, escalating trade tensions between the US and China could support safe-haven flows into the US dollar, which could limit EUR/USD gains. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced additional 10 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports from Tuesday, adding to the initial 10 per cent tariffs imposed last month. On Thursday, Trump also said on Truth Social that 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods would take effect on March 4.

The Euro (EUR) is strengthening against its peers following the release of stronger than expected Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data in Germany for February on Friday. Investors now await Eurozone HICP inflation data to be released later in the day.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.0430, SL 1.0380, TP 1.0510

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 04.03.2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 81800, SL 81600, TP 78000

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The cryptocurrency market has been volatile lately. Irrational moves triggered by emerging news dominate. While the general sentiment remains positive, instead of a confident uptrend, we see something else altogether.

The expected upward impulse failed to develop, retaining the form of a simple zigzag. Now, it’s unclear what the “artist” wants to depict. I suspect that the correction may continue and become more complicated, as previously hypothesized.
The price is likely to drop further after a brief pause.

Investment idea: SELL 81800, SL 81600, TP 78000.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 05.03.2024 GBPUSD

An event to watch out for today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

GBPUSD:​

The GBP/USD pair is trading slightly higher near 1.2790 in the early hours of European trading on Wednesday. The US dollar (USD) is holding near a three-month low amid concerns over slowing US economic growth and the impact of tariffs.

“Concerns about weakening U.S. and global economic activity are playing out in the markets, with cyclical factors driving the sell-off,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com. In addition, Trump's 25 percent duties on Mexican and Canadian imports went into effect Tuesday, along with an increase in Chinese duties to 20 percent.

Investors will be focused on February's ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which is due to be released on Wednesday. If the results are weaker than expected, this could lead to a weaker Dollar against the Pound Sterling (GBP).

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey believes that a resurgence in inflation is not a concern. Meanwhile, Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said that the UK central bank should take a “cautious and gradual” approach to monetary policy amid uncertainty in the labor market and global trade.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2790, SL 1.2740, TP 1.2860

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 06.03.2025 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 20480, SL 20000, TP 24000

​

Once again, no significant or critical changes occurred during the past trading day for the trading instrument under consideration. The price remained under bearish pressure and only recently began attempting to change the direction of movement.

Since the overall wave picture hasn't changed, the development of an upward impulsive movement is still expected, during which Wave 5 of (v) will form. The targets for this growth remain unchanged and lie at the upper boundary of the channel within which the observed upward movement is forming.
Thus, it is recommended to continue looking for opportunities to enter buy trades with the goal of capturing the movement in the indicated impulsive wave.

Investment idea: BUY 20480, SL 20000, TP 24000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 07.03.2024 EURUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

11:30 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change

EURUSD:

​

The EUR/USD exchange rate showed signs of recovery for the fourth consecutive day, but market activity has decreased in anticipation of Friday's crucial US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data release. On Thursday, the euro experienced a notable depreciation, pulling back from the 1.0850 level and bringing an end to a three-day upward trend. The EUR/USD exchange rate had a remarkable performance, demonstrating a 4.6% increase from the opening of trading on Monday to the close of the day.

This followed a period of significant rebalancing in currency markets, driven by expectations of a rate cut.According to rate markets, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates one more time in 2025, following a 25 basis point (bps) cut on Thursday.With the euro facing a much tighter interest rate differential than previously expected, EUR/USD has demonstrated notable strength this week.

Despite ongoing demand for further rate cuts to ease funding and borrowing costs, low inflation in the EU (and now the US following the recent rise in core inflation indicators) limits the ability of central banks to adjust rates.US President Donald Trump has reversed his stance on tariffs, announcing a temporary suspension of tariffs on all goods included in the USMCA agreement he negotiated during his first term. While the Trump administration continues to backtrack on its previous tariff threats, markets are struggling to regain enough risk appetite for an uptrend.On Friday, US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will take on greater importance as investors keep a close eye on economic indicators.While the US economy as a whole remains strong, there are signs of weakness in the labour market, and a new wave of inflationary pressures, driven primarily by tariff concerns, is worsening growth forecasts.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.0780, SL 1.0850, TP 1.0680

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 10.03.2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

​

The GBP/USD pair began the new week positively, trading at around 1.2940-1.2945 during the Asian session and matching the four-month high reached on Friday.The bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) supports the prospects of extending the momentum of last week's breakout above the significant 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the USD against a basket of currencies, is approaching its lowest point since early November, a development that followed Friday's weak monthly US jobs data.The headline non-farm payrolls (NFP) data revealed that the US economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the consensus estimates. In addition, the previous month's data was revised downward to 125k and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1% from 4.0% in January.This comes amid fears that US President Donald Trump's policies will hit US economic activity, and suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates several more times this year. Current market predictions indicate approximately three 25bp rate cuts this year, a development that persists in exerting pressure on the pound and thereby supporting the GBP/USD pairing.The remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he expressed that the US central bank has no intention of hastily reducing interest rates, did not provide any respite for those who advocate a strengthening of the dollar.

Conversely, the British pound is bolstered by the anticipation that the Bank of England (BoE) will adopt a more gradual rate reduction approach compared to other major central banks, including the Fed.This dynamic is further fueling demand for the GBP/USD pair, underscoring a positive outlook.Absent significant market-moving economic data from the UK or the US, the US dollar is expected to exert influence on spot prices, enabling traders to capitalize on short-term opportunities.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.2890, SL 1.2950, TP 1.2780

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 11.03.2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 78600, SL 76250, TP 84000
​

The value of cryptocurrencies, led by Bitcoin, continues to face challenges. The price is falling again, and the minimum of the current year has already been updated. However, it should be noted that the break of the 78,105 level was not very convincing, and buyers are doing their utmost to cling to this extreme. It is quite possible that from here, the price will finally react and we will see at least a minor bounce.

From the perspective of the current wave scenario, the observed decline is likely forming within a correction represented by a double zigzag, where work is underway on its final part, Wave y of (ii).
It is quite possible that the specified correction will conclude shortly, and the price will rise significantly. For this reason, it is recommended to once again consider the possibility of buying.

Investment idea: BUY 78600, SL 76250, TP 84000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 12.03.2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

14:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:
​

The Japanese yen (JPY) continued to lose ground against its US counterpart for the second day in a row and moved away from the highest level since October, reached the previous day. Fears that US President Donald Trump may impose new tariffs against Japan have proved to be key factors undermining the safe-haven yen. Nevertheless, a significant Yen depreciation still seems unlikely amid hawkish expectations from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Data released today showed that Japan's annual wholesale inflation, the Producer Price Index (PPI), rose by 4.0% in February, indicating that inflationary pressures are intensifying. In addition, hopes that the sharp wage increases seen last year will continue into this year support the market's growing confidence that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates further. This, should serve as a tailwind for the low-yielding yen and help limit losses.

In addition, lingering concerns over the possible economic consequences of Trump's trade policies and a global trade war should support the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, is near multi-month lows amid expectations that a tariff-induced slowdown in the US economy will force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut borrowing costs several times this year. This should help limit the USD/JPY pair's rise.

Trade recommendation: SELL 148.35, SL 148.95, TP 147.35

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 13.03.2025 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 19650, SL 19300, TP 20650

A mistake may have been made in the wave analysis of this instrument, necessitating corrections. The observed decline was excessively prolonged, leading to a breach of critical levels. This movement is unlikely to be part of the corrective Wave 4. There is a high probability that this marks the beginning of a new phase in the market's price movement.

The upward movement, characterized by a lengthy and extending impulse, may have concluded. The subsequent decline could represent the first wave in an emerging downward impulse or a deep and prolonged correction.
In any case, a high probability of growth exists in the near term, aimed at correcting the preceding decline. Following this, another wave of downward movement is anticipated.

Investment idea: BUY 19650, SL 19300, TP 20650.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 14.03.2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

​

EUR/USD declines to 1.0835 during Asian trading on Friday. The euro (EUR) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) amid an escalating trade war between the United States and the European Union. Later on Friday, the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for February and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March will be released.

Late Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 200 percent tariffs on imports of wine, cognac and other alcohol from Europe. The measure was in response to EU plans to impose tariffs on U.S. whiskey and other products in April, itself a response to Trump's 25 percent duties on steel and aluminum imports that took effect Wednesday. The latest twist in the escalating trade war is putting pressure on the common currency.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said U.S. tariffs on imported goods could push Germany, Europe's largest economy, into another recession, adding to the country's economic woes. “We live in a world with tariffs, so we can expect a recession this year if tariffs are indeed imposed,” Nagel said Thursday.

On the other hand, weak U.S. economic data and concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy could weigh on the dollar and limit the major pair's decline. Barclays analysts have adjusted their forecast on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decisions and now expect two quarter-point rate cuts in June and September. Barclays had previously forecast one rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) in June. Short-term interest rate futures put the probability of a quarter-point Fed discount rate cut in June at nearly 75%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.0850, SL 1.0890, TP 1.0765

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 17.03.2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

14:30 EET. USD - Change in retail trade volume

GBPUSD:

​

The GBP/USD pair starts the new week on a subdued note and fluctuated within a narrow trading range around 1.2930 during the Asian session. However, the fundamental backdrop calls for some caution before positing a significant corrective pullback in spot prices from the four-month peak near 1.2990 reached last Wednesday.

The US Dollar (USD) is languishing near multi-month lows amid concerns that US President Donald Trump's tariffs and retaliatory measures by other countries could hurt the US economy. In addition, lower-than-expected US inflation and signs of a cooling US labor market could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates several times this year. This, in turn, keeps Dollar bulls on the defensive and serves as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.

Betting on further Fed policy easing was supported by the University of Michigan survey data released on Friday, which showed that the consumer sentiment index fell to a near 2-1.5-year low in March. In addition, inflation expectations rose amid concerns that Trump's aggressive economic policies will lead to higher prices. In addition, the overall positive tone in Asian stock markets undermined the safe-haven US Dollar.

The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, is struggling to attract buyers after Friday's disappointing domestic data, which showed that the UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in January....

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.2930, SL 1.2990, TP 1.2860

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 18.03.2025 EURUSD

EURUSD: BUY 1.0845, SL 1.0810, TP 1.1000​

The price continued trading within the framework of the forming correction, which is likely taking the shape of a contracting horizontal triangle. Predicting triangles of this type always poses certain challenges, as the price can introduce modifications by increasing or decreasing any of the waves while preserving the necessary proportions. Here, the price has grown, increasing the angle of convergence.

In the near term, a move downward toward the lower boundary of the presumed model is expected. This movement will likely conclude the formation of Wave 4. When the price bounces off this indicated level, it is advisable to consider the possibility of entering buy trades.

Investment idea: BUY 1.0845, SL 1.0810, TP 1.1000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 19.03.2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

20:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

USDJPY:

​

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a slight decline during the Asian session on Wednesday, reacting to domestic data that fell short of expectations. However, the decline was not followed by significant selling as traders showed indecision in anticipation of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision. The Japanese central bank is expected to maintain its short-term interest rate at 0.50 per cent, amid uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policy and its potential impact on the economy. Investors will therefore be looking for signals on the timing and magnitude of future rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

Investors will then shift their attention to the outcome of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will be announced later in the US session. The US central bank is also expected to leave interest rates unchanged, although markets are pricing in the possibility of three 25 basis point rate cuts before the end of this year. This represents a significant divergence from the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance, which has led to the recent narrowing of the US-Japan rate differential, and should continue to support the lower-yielding Japanese Yen.

Trade recommendation: BUY 149.60, SL 149.00, TP 150.30

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 20.03.2025 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 19950, SL 19550, TP 20700

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The NASDAQ index appears to be in the midst of developing a corrective structure. Lately, intense battles have raged across every segment of the price field. Following a notable dip, the price strives to ascend, albeit with limited success.

Though the price struggles to rise, it is likely to continue doing so. Eventually, however, a strong downward wave is expected, which will update the current local low. This will result in the formation of a zigzag.
Before this occurs, it is feasible to exploit the current corrective upward movement by entering buy trades at market values. Nonetheless, it is crucial to account for the limited potential of this movement.

Investment idea: BUY 19950, SL 19550, TP 20700.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 21.03.2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:
​

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the danger to the economy from US President Donald Trump's tariff threats, which seem to exist in a quantum state where they both exist and don't exist at the same time. According to Fed Chairman Powell, downside risks have certainly increased thanks to repeated tariff threats, but Fed policymakers continue to insist that US economic data remains strong, albeit off recent highs.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's (Fed) manufacturing activity survey for March fell to 12.5 m/m, down from the previous reading of 18.1 and down for the second month in a row, but held the brakes and fell less than the median market forecast of 8.5. US weekly initial jobless claims also rose less than expected at 223,000 new jobless claimants, up from 220,000 the previous week. Investors had expected the figure to be 224k. Sales of existing homes in the US also rose by almost a third of a million transactions more than expected, rising to 4.26 million units in February from a revised January figure of 4.09 million. Market watchers had expected a slight slowdown to 3.95 million.

With little in the way of economic data on Friday, investors will have a week's worth of events to digest. Traders will also keep an eye on any social media developments from President Trump.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0850, SL 1.0930, TP 1.0760

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