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Analysis of margin levels for April 9, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 4711.45-4788.05, TP1-4864.55, TP2-5122.45.​

• Long-term trend: short. The maximum volume accumulation of the current contract is located in the range of 4800.00–4850.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are taking place below this range, indicating sellers' strength.



• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum volume accumulation of the medium-term trend is located in the range of 4580.00–4615.00 and 4640.00–4675.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are taking place above this range, indicating buyers' strength.

• The area of favorable buying prices in terms of margin is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones, built from the high of 08.04.2026.

• The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4788.05.

• Upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is quoted at 4711.45.

• Intraday targets: Renewing the highs from 04/08/2026 at 4864.55.

• Medium-term targets: Testing the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 5122.45.



• Trading recommendations: Buy from within the favorable price range when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 4711.45–4788.05, Take Profit 1–4864.55, Take Profit 2–5122.45.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 10, 2026 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

EURUSD:
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EUR/USD is holding near 1.1690 on Friday after a notable weakening of the US dollar over the week. The US currency is losing part of its safe-haven demand as the market reduces positions opened during the peak of the Middle East conflict and assesses the prospects for negotiations between the United States and Iran. This allows the euro to maintain an advantage.

The single currency is also supported by the European backdrop. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9% a month earlier, mainly due to energy prices. In March, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged but pointed to risks for prices and growth, while officials indicated that a firmer response remains possible if the energy shock proves persistent.

On the US side, inflation remains a key uncertainty. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range in March, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. Today, the market is awaiting the March US Consumer Price Index report, and if there is no fresh reason for the dollar to strengthen, demand for the euro may remain in place.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1690, SL 1.1660, TP 1.1780

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Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 17 April 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4716.70, SL 4748.00, TP 4621.00​

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Gold starts the week near $4,716 per ounce after declining amid a stronger US dollar and worsening expectations for a Fed rate cut. The sharp rise in oil above $100 has intensified concerns about a new wave of inflation, which reduces the chances of rapid monetary easing in the US and increases pressure on XAUUSD.

The metal is still supported by tensions in the Middle East and steady demand from central banks, including China. However, the key drivers for the coming days remain the dollar, inflation signals, and comments from Fed officials, so for this week a scenario of moderate downside with elevated volatility appears more likely for gold.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4716.70, SL 4748.00, TP 4621.00

#SP500: SELL 6805, SL 6870, TP 6610​

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The S&P 500 index finished Friday at 6,816.89 points, but futures slipped to 6,805 at the start of the new week. The main reason is another jump in oil prices and rising tensions around Iran. Higher energy prices are once again increasing inflation risks and making the market more cautious about the prospects for US rate cuts.

This week, the focus shifts to earnings reports from major banks and technology companies. Profit expectations remain generally strong, but any deterioration in guidance on demand, costs, and margins could quickly bring sellers back into the market. For now, the external backdrop remains restrictive, which means short-term pressure on #SP500 looks more likely.

Trading recommendation: SELL 6805, SL 6870, TP 6610

#BRENT: BUY 102.23, SL 99.00, TP 111.92​

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Brent crude starts the week near $102.23 per barrel after a sharp rally caused by the collapse of US-Iran talks and the announcement of a blockade on Iranian ports. The market is once again pricing in the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a significant share of global oil trade, so buying interest remains strong at the start of the week.

Additional support comes from expectations of tighter supply and a possible shift in the market balance toward deficit. OPEC’s monthly report is due today, while the IEA will publish its oil market report on Tuesday, so supply expectations will remain the central theme for the market. For the current week, the fundamental backdrop for Brent remains supportive of further gains.

Trading recommendation: BUY 102.23, SL 99.00, TP 111.92

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Analysis of margin levels for April 14, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 4698.38-4781.28, TP1-4864.28, TP2-5186.48.​

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of quotations 4685.00–4735.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.

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Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range of quotations 4580.00-4615.00 and 4640.00-4675.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.

The area of favorable prices for buying from the point of view of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the maximum of 08.04.2026.

The quotation of the upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4781.28.

The quotation of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4698.38.

Intraday targets: renewal of the highs of 08.04.2026–4864.28.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ - 5186.48.

​

Trading recommendations: purchases from the range of favorable prices upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 4698.38–4781.28, Take Profit 1–4864.28, Take Profit 2–5186.48.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 15, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 EET. GBP - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech

GBPUSD:

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The pound is holding near 1.3570, reacting to swings in the US dollar and news from the Middle East: expectations of talks and possible de-escalation reduce demand for safe-haven assets, but any deterioration quickly brings nervousness back to the market. Another transmission channel remains oil and gas prices, which are important for the UK economy.

Domestically, attention is shifting to the Bank of England’s messaging and decisions. The market is increasingly discussing that higher energy costs could keep inflation above target longer than expected, but the regulator also has to take into account cooling business activity. Against this backdrop, any mismatch between market expectations and signals from the Bank of England increases volatility in the pair.

From the external side, pressure on the pound comes from worsening global forecasts and the risk of weaker growth in Europe. The IMF is already revising its estimates, pointing to the consequences of the energy shock, which makes GBP/USD dynamics dependent on a combination of “energy” news and US price data. If the Fed continues to maintain a high-rate stance, the dollar’s strengthening potential could push the pair back toward lower levels. The risk is a sharp drop in oil and an improvement in risk appetite.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3575, SL 1.3595, TP 1.3475

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for April 16, 2026 #NQ100​

#NQ100: SELL 26200, SL 26400, TP 24800.​

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The index continued to move upward quite confidently, approaching its all-time high. As previously noted, an upward impulse is likely forming at the moment, which is part of wave (v) on a higher timeframe.

At this point, the impulse on the current timeframe appears complete, meaning a corrective decline may begin at any moment. An additional factor supporting the bearish scenario is the previously marked high acting as a resistance level. The price has already reacted to this level twice; on the third attempt, we will likely see another notable reaction.

Given this, it may be worth cautiously opening short positions at current market levels.

Investment idea: SELL 26200, SL 26400, TP 24800.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 17, 2026 USDJPY​

USDJPY:

​

USD/JPY is holding near 159.40 and remains sensitive to the divergence in the policy approaches of the United States and Japan. The Japanese currency is weakening because the market is becoming less confident in a near-term tightening step from the Bank of Japan amid external uncertainty and expensive energy. For Japan, higher oil prices are especially painful because they worsen the trade balance and put pressure on the yen.

An additional factor was the statement from Japanese officials that an agreement had been reached with the United States to strengthen cooperation on the foreign exchange market. This signal is a reminder that the area around 160 remains sensitive. As long as the Bank of Japan stays cautious and the probability of an immediate rate increase declines, the yield gap between the US and Japan continues to work against the yen.

On the dollar side, support comes from the resilience of the US economy. The US labor market remains strong, and investors expect the Federal Reserve not to rush any rate changes. Even despite the dollar’s overall weakness in recent days, the pair still has room for a fresh rise if tensions in commodity markets do not ease completely. Under these conditions, the base-case scenario for today points to continued growth in USD/JPY.

Trading recommendation: BUY 159.40, SL 158.90, TP 160.90

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Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 24 April 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4790.00, SL 4820.00, TP 4700.00​

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Gold enters the week under pressure after pulling back to the 4790–4800 dollars per ounce area. The trigger was a new wave of tension around Iran: oil prices moved higher, US Treasury yields rose, and the dollar strengthened. This is unfavorable for gold because the market is once again concerned about prolonged inflation and a longer period of high interest rates in the United States.

This week, the key factor for XAUUSD will be not only demand for safe-haven assets, but also the market’s reaction to rising energy prices. As long as the dollar keeps its advantage and yields continue to rise, gold will find it harder to return quickly to its highs. The base-case scenario for the week is a moderate decline, with a risk of sharp swings driven by Middle East headlines.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4790.00, SL 4820.00, TP 4700.00

#SP500: BUY 7125, SL 7075, TP 7275​

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The S&P 500 index ended last week at a new record high near 7126 points. The market is being supported by expectations of strong corporate earnings: nearly one fifth of the companies in the index are due to report this week, while total first-quarter earnings growth is estimated at around 14% year-on-year. This is keeping interest in US equities firm despite external uncertainty.

Additional support is coming from broad inflows into US stocks and historical market behavior: after reaching new highs, the market often continues rising for several more weeks. A limiting factor is expensive oil, which may increase inflation risks and put pressure on corporate costs. Still, for now the fundamental balance for the week remains in favor of further gains.

Trading recommendation: BUY 7125, SL 7075, TP 7275

#BRENT: BUY 95.25, SL 93.75, TP 99.75​

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Brent starts the week near 95.25 dollars per barrel after a fresh rise in tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The market is once again pricing in the risk of supply disruptions, especially since about one fifth of global oil and liquefied gas supplies pass through this route. Against this backdrop, oil prices remain highly sensitive to any news related to negotiations and military developments.

Throughout the week, Brent may continue to rise as long as the threat of supply disruptions remains reflected in prices. At the same time, the upside potential is limited by expectations of weaker demand and by major banks’ assumptions that supply flows may gradually normalize by mid-May. Therefore, the base-case scenario remains moderately upward, but with very high volatility.

Trading recommendation: BUY 95.25, SL 93.75, TP 99.75

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