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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for March 12, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 5090.02-5180.52, TP1-4999.62, TP2-4705.32.

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• Long-term trend: long. The maximum volume accumulation of the current contract is located in the range of 5150.00–5230.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are taking place within this range, indicating time uncertainty.



• Medium-term trend: short. The maximum volume accumulation of the medium-term trend is located in the range of 5305.00–5330.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are taking place below this range, indicating sellers' strength.

• The area of favorable selling prices in terms of margin is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2, built from the low of March 3, 2025.

• The lower boundary of zone 1/4 is 5090.02.

• The lower boundary of zone 1/2 is 5180.52.

• Intraday targets: Renew the lows from March 3, 2025, at 4999.62.

• Medium-term targets: Test the lower boundary of the SWCZ-4705.32.



• Trading recommendations: Sell from the favorable price range when a reversal pattern forms.

• Sell: 5090.02-5180.52, Take Profit 1-4999.62, Take Profit 2-4705.32.

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[Fresh Forex]

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 20 March 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 5010.00, SL 4980.00, TP 5100.00​

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​

Gold starts the week near $5,010 per ounce. The metal is supported by tensions in the Middle East, lower yields on US government bonds, and investor caution ahead of decisions by the world’s major central banks. In this environment, part of the capital remains in safe-haven assets despite the continued strength of the US dollar.

A limiting factor is expensive oil: it increases inflation concerns and forces the market to reduce expectations of a near-term policy easing in the United States. However, for now, geopolitical risk and demand for protection outweigh that pressure. For the current week, the baseline scenario for XAUUSD remains further upside with possible short-term pullbacks.

Trading recommendation: BUY 5010.00, SL 4980.00, TP 5100.00

#SP500: SELL 6710, SL 6760, TP 6560​

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The US stock market enters the week under pressure. Expensive oil is reinforcing inflation concerns, while a series of major central bank meetings is making investors more cautious in assessing the prospects for rate cuts. The S&P 500 futures contract is holding around 6,712 points, but the overall tone remains restrained after several weak sessions.

An additional risk comes from rising costs for businesses and consumers amid the jump in energy prices. Even strong corporate news is currently being overshadowed by inflation concerns and borrowing costs. For this week, a move lower looks more likely for #SP500 unless the external backdrop becomes calmer.

Trading recommendation: SELL 6710, SL 6760, TP 6560

#BRENT: BUY 104.40, SL 101.40, TP 113.40​

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Brent starts the week above $104 per barrel. The main reason for the rise is the threat of supply disruptions in the Middle East and continuing tension around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil exports passes. Even a large release of oil from reserves is only partially containing the price increase.

For the current week, the oil market remains extremely sensitive to any news related to supply security and the actions of the largest producers. If the risk of further disruptions remains, prices may continue to rise. For #BRENT, the baseline fundamental scenario for the week remains upward, despite sharp short-term swings.

Trading recommendation: BUY 104.40, SL 101.40, TP 113.40

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for March 17, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 5055.22–5144.94, TP1 4965.72, TP2 4713.52.

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Long-term trend: upward. The largest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located in the 5060.00–5140.00 price range. At the moment, investment operations in XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates weakness on the part of buyers.

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Medium-term trend: downward. The largest concentration of volumes in the medium-term trend is located in the 5085.00–5105.00 price range. At the moment, investment operations in XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates strength on the part of sellers.

The favorable price area for selling from the perspective of margin requirements is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the low of March 16, 2025.

Price of the lower boundary of the 1/4 zone: 5055.22.

Price of the lower boundary of the 1/2 zone: 5144.94.

Intraday targets: a renewal of the lows from March 16, 2025 — 4965.72.

Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the medium-term control zone (GWCZ) — 4713.52.

​

Trading recommendations: sell from the favorable price range upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 5055.22–5144.94, Take Profit 1: 4965.72, Take Profit 2: 4713.52.

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for March 19, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 4891.94–4979.44, TP1 4804.44, TP2 4557.54

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Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The highest concentration of volumes for the current contract is located within the 5060.00–5140.00 price range. At present, investment operations in XAUUSD are being conducted below this range, which indicates the strength of sellers.



Medium-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of volumes for the medium-term trend is located within the 5080.00–5115.00 and 4995.00–5030.00 price ranges. At present, investment operations in XAUUSD are being conducted below these ranges, which indicates the strength of sellers.

The favorable selling area from the perspective of margin requirements is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the low of 19.03.2025.

The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4891.94.

The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4979.44.

Intraday targets: a renewal of the lows from 19.03.2025 at 4804.44.

Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 4557.54.

​

Trading recommendations: consider selling from the favorable price range upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4891.94–4979.44, Take Profit 1: 4804.44, Take Profit 2: 4557.54.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 20, 2026 USDJPY​

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY is trading near 157.90 after retreating from recent highs. The Bank of Japan kept the short-term rate unchanged at 0.75%, but once again pointed to inflation risks linked to expensive oil and a weak yen. For Japan’s economy, which depends on fuel imports, this reinforces expectations of further rate increases.

Additional support for the yen comes from statements by the authorities about their readiness to respond to excessive volatility in the currency market. The closer the dollar moves toward the 160 yen area, the stronger the concerns about possible intervention. Because of this, some market participants prefer to reduce long positions in the pair, even despite higher interest rates in the United States.

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and is not signaling rapid easing. However, for USD/JPY this factor has already been largely priced in. At the moment, greater weight is being given to expectations of further steps by the Bank of Japan and the risk of official action in response to yen weakness, which increases the probability of a decline in the pair.

Trading recommendation: SELL 157.90, SL 158.35, TP 156.55

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 27 March 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4226.16, SL 4240.00, TP 3990.00​

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​

On March 23, gold starts the week near $4226.16 per ounce after a ninth consecutive losing session. Markets are increasingly pricing in higher rates: oil is holding above $110, inflation expectations are rising, and the dollar is strengthening. Additional selling is linked to position closures to cover losses in other markets.

This week, headlines around the conflict near the Strait of Hormuz and comments from the Fed will be key. While oil remains expensive, it is harder for gold to regain its role as a safe-haven asset. Escalation and new threats to infrastructure could revive demand and ease the pressure.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4226.16, SL 4240.00, TP 3990.00

#SP500: SELL 6506, SL 6530, TP 6240​

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As the week begins on March 23, the #SP500 is holding near 6506 points after a series of weekly declines. Oil above $110 is lifting business costs and supporting higher bond yields, making it harder for markets to expect rapid rate cuts.

This week, business activity data, consumer sentiment, and Fed commentary will be in focus. If the energy shock persists, investors may remain cautious. A cooling of geopolitical tensions and a pullback in oil, on the other hand, could support demand for equities.

Trading recommendation: SELL 6506, SL 6530, TP 6240

#BRENT: BUY 110.00, SL 108.50, TP 128.00​

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On March 23, Brent is holding near $110.00 per barrel as markets price in supply disruption risks amid tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the region’s energy infrastructure. Any news about shipping security can move prices quickly.

This week, the focus is on efforts to restore transit, decisions on strategic reserves, and producers’ stance on output. Banks are raising their 2026 forecasts and expect March–April to trade around $110 until uncertainty fades. This supports prices, although pullbacks remain possible.

Trading recommendation: BUY 110.00, SL 108.50, TP 128.00

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for March 24, 2026 #NQ100​

#NQ100: BUY 23994.4-24271.9, TP1-24549.4, TP2-25223.7.​

• Long-term trend: short. The maximum volume accumulation of the current contract is located in the range of 24210.0–24375.0. Currently, investment transactions are being conducted on #NQ100 below this range, indicating sellers' strength.

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• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum volume accumulation of the medium-term trend is located in the range of 24350.0–24410.0. Currently, investment transactions are being conducted on #NQ100 below this range, indicating buyers' weakness.

• The area of favorable buying prices in terms of margin is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones, built from the high of March 23, 2026.

• The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 24271.9.

• Upper boundary of the zone: 1/2–23994.4.

• Intraday targets: Renewing the highs from March 23, 2026–24549.4.

• Medium-term targets: Testing the lower boundary of the zone: 25223.7.

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• Investment recommendations: Buy from the favorable price range when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 23994.4–24271.9, Take Profit 1–24549.4, Take Profit 2–25223.7.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 25, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

09:00 EET. GBP - Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

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GBP/USD is holding near 1.3430 and remains supported by expectations surrounding the Bank of England’s policy rate. At its March 19 meeting, the regulator unanimously kept the rate at 3.75% and stressed that the rise in global energy prices is already affecting fuel and utility costs for British households. The Bank of England made it clear that it is ready to respond if the external shock begins to feed more strongly into domestic prices.

The pound is also being supported by the bond market. According to Reuters, yields on two-year UK government bonds rose by around 60 basis points in March, and market participants even began to consider the possibility of a rate increase later this year rather than a cut. This has boosted sterling’s appeal relative to other European currencies and revived demand for the pound after a weak start to the month.

Sterling still has weak points: a recent KPMG survey showed worsening consumer sentiment due to concerns over food and energy prices. However, for the currency market, the difference in rate expectations and the Bank of England’s readiness to maintain a firm stance for longer matter more at the moment. As long as this factor remains dominant, the baseline scenario for the current date stays moderately bullish for GBP/USD.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3430, SL 1.3400, TP 1.3520

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for March 26, 2026 #NQ100​

#NQ100: BUY 23995.7–24273.2, TP1-24550.7, TP2-25225.0.​

Long-term trend: bearish. The maximum volume concentration of the current contract is located in the 24170.0–24330.0 price range. At the moment, investment activity in #NQ100 is taking place below this range, which indicates buyer weakness.

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Medium-term trend: bullish. The maximum volume concentration of the medium-term trend is located in the 24350.0–24410.0 price range. At the moment, investment activity in #NQ100 is taking place below this range, which indicates buyer weakness.

The favorable buying area from the margin requirement perspective is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones plotted from the high of 23.03.2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 24273.2.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 23995.7.

Intraday targets: a retest of the highs from 23.03.2026 — 24550.7.

Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ — 25225.0.

​

Investment recommendations: buy within the favorable price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 23995.7–24273.2, Take Profit 1: 24550.7, Take Profit 2: 25225.0.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 27, 2026 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

16:00 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

USDJPY:

​

USD/JPY is holding near 159.50–159.60 on Friday, remaining close to this year’s highs. The pair is being supported by demand for the dollar: high oil prices have increased concerns about global inflation, while the market has reduced expectations for US rate cuts before the end of the year. This is especially important for the yen, because the combination of expensive energy and capital flows into the dollar worsens the position of a country that depends heavily on fuel imports.

At the same time, the room for further gains in the pair is already limited. Market discussion about possible action by the Japanese authorities to support the yen is intensifying, and the issue of intervention has become important again as the exchange rate approaches the 160 mark. In addition, the Bank of Japan remains ready for further policy tightening if underlying inflation pressure stays firm. Even without immediate decisions, this creates the risk of sharp pullbacks in USD/JPY.

Fundamentally, the balance is becoming less clear-cut. On the one hand, the dollar is supported by geopolitical tension and US yields. On the other hand, the weak yen is already too painful for the Japanese economy, while expectations of a response from the authorities are limiting the pair’s upside potential. At these levels, a corrective decline in USD/JPY looks like the more likely scenario.

Trading recommendation: SELL 159.55, SL 160.15, TP 157.75

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