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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 09 October 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 4160.00, SL 4125.00, TP 4247.50​

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The weak US employment report sharply reduced the probability of an interest rate hike by the Fed in October: job growth in September amounted to 29 thousand, and data for previous months was revised downward. This weakens pressure from monetary policy and supports demand for gold.

At the same time, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds remains above 5%, which limits the potential of XAUUSD. The minutes of the Fed's September meeting will be a test of the new scenario, but if expectations of a pause persist, the priority remains with the recovery of gold.

Trading idea: BUY 4160.00, SL 4125.00, TP 4247.50

#SP500: BUY 7725, SL 7680, TP 7835​

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For the US market, the key change was the reduction in expectations for a Fed rate hike in October after weak employment data. A softer trajectory of the cost of money supports stocks, and Friday's index rise shows that investors currently view slowing hiring more as an argument for a Fed pause.

The limitation remains Treasury bond yields at multi-year highs, increasing requirements for stock valuation. If the Fed minutes do not return the market to tighter expectations, the basic weekly scenario allows for continued growth of #SP500.

Trading idea: BUY 7725, SL 7680, TP 7835

#BRENT: SELL 100.50, SL 103.00, TP 94.25​

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For Brent, the main local factor of the week is supply. OPEC+ maintained its production targets for November, and oil exports from the Middle East have recovered, while G7 countries began releasing part of their emergency reserves. This combination reduces deficit risks and creates downward pressure on prices.

Geopolitical tensions and attacks on infrastructure continue to maintain the risk premium, so declines may remain volatile. However, with high export flows and growing available supply remaining, the basic scenario for the week remains in favor of selling #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 100.50, SL 103.00, TP 94.25

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[Fresh Forex]

The Eurozone Is Once Again Showing Signs of Crisis: EURUSD Falls Below 1.12​

The euro has come under renewed pressure from several factors at once. Investors are concerned about the state of France’s public finances, the US dollar remains strong thanks to high US Treasury yields, while expectations for the ECB’s future policy remain mixed.​

The spread between the yields on 10-year French and German government bonds recently exceeded 150 basis points — the highest level since 2011. This is a worrying signal for the market: investors are demanding an increasingly higher premium for holding French debt, while political difficulties surrounding the budget are adding to uncertainty.

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EURUSD fell below 1.12​

On October 5, EURUSD briefly fell to 1.1160 — its lowest level since May 2025. On the morning of October 6, the pair recovered to around 1.12, but pressure on the euro remains. On the one hand, concerns over France’s debt continue to deter investors. On the other, the dollar is supported by US Treasury yields, which remain near multi-year highs.

At the same time, the situation is not limited to France. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September, so the possibility of further ECB rate hikes remains and could support the euro. For EURUSD to stage a sustained reversal, the market would need a combination of several factors: stabilization of French debt, lower US yields, or stronger expectations of a more hawkish ECB policy. Until that happens, the 1.10–1.11 area remains the main downside target, while a sustained move above 1.12 would be the first sign that sellers are losing momentum.

#CAC40 remains under the most pressure​

The French stock market is reacting much more strongly to the situation than the broader European market. #CAC40 is trading around 7,846 points after falling from levels above 8,100 at the end of September. Attempts to recover are currently meeting sellers in the 7,850–7,900 area.

As long as the index remains below 7,900, downside pressure persists. A renewed decline and a sustained break below 7,800 points would confirm that investors are continuing to reduce their exposure to French assets. For the outlook to improve significantly, #CAC40 needs to return above the 7,900–8,000 zone.

#ESTX50 is holding up better for now​

The pan-European #ESTX50 is trading around 6,253 points and continues to look more resilient than the French market. After falling to around 6,210–6,220, the index managed to recover, suggesting that investors currently view the problems primarily as French rather than as a full-scale debt crisis across the entire eurozone.

However, the margin of safety is narrowing. If #ESTX50 falls back toward 6,200 and fails to hold this level, the French problem could begin to look like a broader European factor. In that case, pressure on EURUSD could intensify alongside further declines in European stock indices.

According to FreshForex analysts, the most likely scenario at present remains further downside in EURUSD and continued pressure on European equities. As long as the pair remains below 1.12, the main target remains the 1.10–1.11 area. For #CAC40, weakness below 7,900 keeps the risk of further declines elevated, while 6,200 is the key level for #ESTX50.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for October 9, 2026 GBPUSD

17:30 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

GBPUSD:

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The Bank of England remains focused on inflation: yesterday, Chief Economist Hugh Pill emphasized the need to curb price growth. At the September meeting, he and two other participants advocated for a rate hike. For the pound, this supports expectations of policy tightening, although the majority's decision to hold rates shows that the next step is not yet predetermined.

UK budgetary risks limit the strength of this argument. Andrew Bailey highlighted the importance of credible fiscal policy amid stress in debt markets. Rising bond yields may reflect an increased risk premium rather than improved prospects for the pound. Therefore, confidence in funding government spending is crucial for sustained currency growth.

In the current session, the pound is aided by a slowdown in dollar strengthening as US yields decline. The University of Michigan report could amplify this effect if it confirms deteriorating consumer sentiment. Conversely, a strong result alongside rising inflation expectations would support the dollar. With the US interest rate momentum weakening, BoE expectations provide grounds for moderate GBPUSD growth.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3240, SL 1.3210, TP 1.3315

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 16 October 2026

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XAUUSD: BUY 4202.88, SL 4142.88, TP 4334.88

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Gold starts the week with support from a weakening dollar and falling oil prices. Cheaper energy reduces fears of an immediate Fed tightening and improves the position of the metal, which does not yield interest income. At the same time, uncertainty in the Middle East maintains interest in safe-haven assets, despite reports of an energy truce in Europe.

The main test will be US inflation data: a slowdown could ease yield pressure and support XAUUSD. However, the October Fed pause is already largely expected, and the probability of a December rate hike remains high. Therefore, the growth idea assumes a calm reaction from the bond market to the statistics; accelerating prices and a strengthening dollar could cancel it out.

Trading idea: BUY 4202.88, SL 4142.88, TP 4334.88

#SP500: BUY 7836, SL 7766, TP 8011

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The corporate earnings season becomes the main test for US stocks. Results from major banks are scheduled for Tuesday, and the current valuation of quarterly profit growth for index companies stands at 29.6% year-on-year. This supports demand for stocks, but strong expectations require confirmation: past results are important, but so are company forecasts.

Falling oil prices can ease business costs and reduce concerns about further rate hikes. The limitation remains the high yield on US bonds: it raises investors' requirements for corporate profits. If earnings meet expectations and inflation data does not intensify the pressure on the cost of money, the weekly scenario allows for #SP500 growth.

Trading idea: BUY 7836, SL 7766, TP 8011

#BRENT: SELL 101.36, SL 104.36, TP 95.36

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For oil, the main change has been expectations of supply expansion. US statements about supplying Russian diesel and stopping attacks on energy facilities weaken deficit fears. However, the durability of the announced truce has not yet been confirmed by both sides. Pressure on #BRENT arises through reduced disruption risk, not through proven production increases.

At the same time, attacks on tankers and the expansion of the conflict in the Middle East maintain the threat to export flows. Therefore, the weekly downside idea depends on the emergence of confirmations regarding supply availability and the absence of new serious disruptions. While the market assesses the possibility of a deficit reduction, selling #BRENT remains the base scenario; worsening transport security could cancel it out.

Trading idea: SELL 101.36, SL 104.36, TP 95.36

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for October 13, 2026 BTCUSD

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BTCUSD: BUY 82000, SL 81000, TP 84500.

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Earlier there were concerns that the Bitcoin correction had ended. Although a good zigzag had formed at that time, it turned out to be disproportionate to the previous impulsive rise. It lacked a bit of scale.

And now we see that the price has sharply returned to the lows of that very zigzag, thereby confirming the assumption about the complication of the corrective structure.

At the moment, the formation of a double zigzag is assumed, in which wave (x) is currently forming.

If this is indeed the case, then in the near future we will see another attempt to rise, which will also fail, but on this move you can try to make money.

For this, you can cautiously buy at current levels with a target near the local maximum.

Investment idea: BUY 82000, SL 81000, TP 84500.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for October 14, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

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For the pound, today's key signal is regarding British budget policy: the IMF does not require accelerating deficit reduction and urges maintaining the chosen course. This reduces concerns about additional demand pressure from faster fiscal tightening. However, confidence in government plans remains a necessary condition for currency stability, as expensive borrowing complicates public finances.

Yesterday, the IMF raised its forecast for UK economic growth this year to 1.3%. Megan Greene of the Bank of England considered the new estimates an argument for raising rates: in her view, current policy is insufficiently restrictive on inflation. Such a stance supports the pound, although high energy costs and elevated long-term rates could weaken consumption and investment.

The combination of local interest rate support and reduced dollar demand allows for further GBPUSD upside. US inflation remains the main risk: exceeding expectations could increase the likelihood of imminent Fed tightening and reverse the trend. Ahead of the data release, the pound's advantage appears moderate; the trade idea relies on maintaining the current overvaluation of dollar rates.

Trade idea: BUY 1.3270, SL 1.3235, TP 1.3355

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for October 15, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: SELL 4124.69-4175.69, TP1-4073.59, TP2-3914.59.​

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 4410.00–4450.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates weakness among buyers.



Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the range of quotes 4150.00-4170.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates strength among sellers.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the minimum of 14.10.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4 – 4124.69.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4175.69.

Intraday targets: update minimums from 10/14/2026–4073.59.

Medium-term targets: test the lower boundary of GWCZ-3914.59.



Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when forming a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4124.69-4175.69, Take Profit 1–4073.59, Take Profit 2–3914.59.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for October 16, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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The euro is supported by declining US bond yields: dollar investments become less attractive. Amid concerns over artificial intelligence spending, investors are buying US debt, but the currency itself has not yet benefited from this. For EURUSD, this creates an opportunity to continue its recovery after the recent decline.

From the Eurozone side, today's final assessment of September inflation is important. Preliminary data showed price growth accelerating to 3.8% year-on-year, maintaining grounds for further ECB rate hikes. Confirmation of these figures will support euro interest rate expectations, although expensive energy simultaneously worsens the outlook for the European economy.

The main risk to pair growth is a return to dollar demand with more hawkish Fed signals. Strong US inflation leaves such an opportunity, while France's debt problems limit the attractiveness of the euro. As long as US yields are falling and immediate tightening does not receive new confirmation, the base scenario for the current session allows for moderate EURUSD growth.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1215, SL 1.1190, TP 1.1270

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 23 October 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 4176.48, SL 4116.48, TP 4326.48

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Falling oil prices support gold through rate expectations: reduced energy pressure lowers the risk of immediate Fed tightening. Simultaneously, buying US bonds reduces their yields, diminishing the interest advantage over metal. This combination this week creates conditions for a recovery in demand for XAUUSD.

Uncertainty surrounding energy supplies and transport security in the Middle East provides support. However, high US inflation leaves room for further rate hikes, even if the next meeting ends with a pause. A resumption of rising yields and dollar strength would weaken this scenario; as long as money costs do not intensify pressure, the weekly idea of gold growth remains valid.

Trading Idea: BUY 4176.48, SL 4116.48, TP 4326.48

#SP500: BUY 7722, SL 7642, TP 7882

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For US stocks, corporate earnings will be the main test of the week. After the tech sector sell-off, investors need to see that company revenues can justify large AI-related expenses. Falling bond yields and oil prices ease financial conditions and business costs, providing support for #SP500 ahead of results publication.

Concerns about the debt load of AI companies persist: weak profit forecasts could outweigh the benefits of cheaper energy. Therefore, morning sentiment improvement does not yet confirm sustained growth for the whole week. The base scenario allows for index recovery with convincing earnings and a calm debt market; deteriorating company forecasts will be the main risk to this idea.

Trading Idea: BUY 7722, SL 7642, TP 7882

#BRENT: SELL 105.72, SL 109.22, TP 98.02

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The oil market begins the week by revising supply expectations. Reports of easing US restrictions on Russian supplies have strengthened hopes for increased fuel availability. However, the conditions and timing remain uncertain: expecting additional volumes does not mean actual export growth. For #BRENT, this creates pressure through reduced deficit fears.

Improved Chinese data supports demand assessment, while shipping threats in the Middle East maintain disruption risks. These factors limit downside potential and make the scenario sensitive to news. If supply availability improves without new major disruptions, the weekly priority will remain on falling oil; intensified attacks on transport could change this conclusion.

Trading Idea: SELL 105.72, SL 109.22, TP 98.02

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for October 20, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: SELL 4179.05-4178.00, TP1-4075.55, TP2-3912.55.​

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4133.00–4183.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

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Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the range with quotes 4155.00-4170.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates seller strength.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 14.10.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4127.25.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4179.05.

Intraday targets: update of minimums from 14.10.2026–4075.55.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-3912.55.

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Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4179.05-4178.00, Take Profit 1–4075.55, Take Profit 2–3912.55.

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