"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis
11.07.2014
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The important economic data from Europe and other regions absence, as well as minutes of U.S. meetings yield expectations caused the continued range trading on the euro/dollar. The hopes that the activity will return to the market amid the politicians speeches have not been justified - neither speech the ECB’s President Draghi nor his colleagues, members of the ECB Governing Board B. Kerr and P. Pratt did not change the situation. The ECB functionary's statements concerned largely the power centralization topics in the region and its authority strengthening to force EU governments to reform their economies to recovery.
The situation has been changed after the FOMC minutes publication - the euro rose as it became known that the document did not have anything about a possible rate increase.
The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form the “Golden cross”.
The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
If the price consolidates above 1.3610 the next target will be the resistance located at 1.3670.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The British pound strengthened against the dollar in yesterday's trading. The effect on the sterling as well as on the euro had a message from the Fed. During the session the pound was under pressure from the dollar. The pound sales were provoked by the housing prices data from Halifax which showed that the price index fell by 0.6% m/m in June after rising +4.0% m/m previously and Britain Retail Consortium (BRC) report announced the annual fall indicator retail prices continuation which coupled with the price dynamics in the housing market has contributed to the doubt mood, waiting the rate hikes in the UK.
The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.
There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span.
The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.
The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The sterling growth gave the buyers the opportunity to get closer to the last week maximum the resistance of 1.7160. The volumes around this level decline, however, due to the fundamental data, the northern trend is likely to continue.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The Japanese currency was under the general market sentiment pressure. Initially, the yen declined against the dollar, on the risks of a monetary policy possible imminent tightening in the U.S., and then grew when the Fed protocols disappointed "bulls" on the dollar and sharply reduced the U.S. "Treasuries" yields. As a result, the dollar/yen trading was closed almost on the opening prices.
The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60.
There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”.
The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price shows a downward movement.
Trading recommendations
The yen strengthening against the greenback is expected in the short term, lowering the price to 101.00 - 101.20.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar on the U.S. currency general weakening, caused by the FOMC minutes publication. The document, in particular, noted that, if the current trends is preserved the economy the FOMC representatives would decide to finish the asset purchases program in October.
The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.
There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.
The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
We advise to open short positions with the target 0. 8880. This level overcoming will enable sellers to target the level of 0.8850.