Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The main competitors of the dollar could regain some lost ground last week. The EUR/USD used the moderately negative macroeconomic statistics from the United States and finished the day up 0.25%. The Michigan Institute consumer confidence came out worse than the forecasted median, at 79.2, showing the minimum value over the past 8 months.

It should be noted that the final index fell below 12-month moving average which may signal a slowdown in the American economy. The July retail sales release also confirms this factor. Nevertheless, the current situation in Europe is much more negative and think about the downtrend change is too early.

The GBP/USD is within a narrow range and even the weak consumer confidence release from the United States could not cheer the bulls to open long positions. Bears reliably keep the current level and this factor indicates a set of short positions by institutional investors, and in the near future is expected to be continued downward.

Investors take profits on long positions in the world's leading stock market which put pressure on the USD/JPY. The USA consumer confidence came out worse than market expectations that together with the yields fall on 10-year Treasuries have caused the dollar demand for.




 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.08.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

Euro fell against the dollar a bit the last trading day. Probably the traders’ sentiment that was formed after the euro area disappointing GDP data for has already been taken into consideration and short-term investors have used data from the United States to take profit. In addition, technical factors presented by a strong support could stimulate the closing of euro short positions.

Eight day consolidation on the historical support level 1.3360 which was formed 2013.11.07, was followed by the price rebound upwards.

The support is at 1.3360. The resistance is at 1.3420.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance level of 1.3485 retest is more likely to lead to a short-term consolidation.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British pound has been "trodden" in one place and closed against the dollar on the opening prices. Investors have not been impressed by the fact that the second GDP estimate for the 2nd quarter was revised upwards to 3.2% y/y from 3.1% y/y.

The price broke the level of 1.6710 at high volumes. After the support level break down the price shows a weak volatility.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6700, the next one is at 1.6640. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6770, the next one is at 1.6840.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the resistance level of 1.6770 retest. After that the price will bounce down to continue the further bearish trend to 1.6640.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The dollar/yen is slowly growing up having finished the day with positive results. The reason for the buying was weak USA economy releases which caused the US government bonds growth which consequently reduced their profitability.

The buyers tested for strength the strong resistance level of 102.65 second time over the past three weeks. This mark is an insurmountable barrier which has been bounced buyers down for six months.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.60, the next one is at 102.90.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The Cloud is neutral.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is descending.

Trading recommendations

To continue the uptrend the bulls need to update the maximum of the previous month - 103.08. In this case, the price is expected to go to 103.90 - 104.00



Frank (CHF)

General Overview

Index assessment of the economic situation over the last year has grown to seven compared to the first quarter (5). The consumers' opinion about a successful time for large purchases has been improved, that is proved by the corresponding index increase from 1 in the previous quarter to 8. Nevertheless, the Swiss noted the deterioration of its financial position for the last time during the second quarter which resulted as the reduction of the corresponding index to -7 from the previous value -5.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9030, the next one is at 0.9000. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen directed downwards. The Cloud is descending.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.

Trading recommendations

We still recommend going short. The mark 0 9030 is the first goal. After overcoming the first target the price can go to 0.9000.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American dollar has significantly strengthened its position against majors - the dollar basket index (USDX) updated the current year maximum values and ended the trading day at around 81.87. The positive macroeconomic data from the United States on the construction sector and inflation cheered the bears to open the short positions in the EUR/USD. The released building permits and new foundations showed a significant increase in July which is a positive factor for the American economy. The inflation release came out at a forecasts median, at around 2% y/y, which also fits to the strong economic growth scenario.

The GBP/USD came under a sales wave again, on the background of the negative inflation report. The CPI came in at 1.6% y/y in July. The inflation has been below the target level of 2% for 7 consecutive months which may postpone the rate increase. Immediately after the inflation release publication the pound/dollar has fallen by 78 p. setting a fresh minimum for the 4 last months.

The USD/JPY bullish trend is gaining strength. The global demand on the stock market, combined with the positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States supported the American currency against the Japanese yen.




 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.08.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency fell against the dollar at yesterday's trading. The pair broke the strong support level that restrained the price from a falling more than a week, and sat a new local minimum. The reason for the break down was the strong economic data from the United States, reported the housing sector improvement. It is worth noting that the initial pressure on the euro gave the data on its own economy.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3290, the next one is at 1.3230. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3420.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential downward movement target is the support level of 1.3230.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British currency resumed its decline and has fallen off against the dollar by more than 100 points. The inflation data have the initial pressure on the British sterling, and messages from the United States about the improvements in the housing market supported its sales. The UK inflation fell more than expected in July, which could seriously shake the market participants’ confidence who are awaiting the rate growth.

On the background of the "fundamental data" the intermediate support level 1.6675 breakthrough was held with the high volume formation. The downward trend is still in force, the current price decline came to the descending channel 1.6600 lower bound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is going down.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.6700.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen also was among the dollar’s "victims". The USD/JPY quotations rose up on the United States economic data, and then their growth was sustained by the States stock market optimism. The economic data from Japan have shown large trade deficit in July, but noted an increase in exports which may be some encouraging factor.

The strong resistance level of 102.90 upward break only strengthens the buyer's intention to continue to trade upwards. However, it is worth noting the fact that such a strong growth was not supported by the trading volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 103.30, the next one is at 102.90. The price is finding the first resistance at 103.70, the next one is at 104.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The target is the level of 104.00.



Frank (CHF)

General overview

The dollar continues to grow. It rose to 11-month high against the basket of the major currencies after the optimistic data on the United States housing sector have shown that the economic recovery is gaining momentum.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9170.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American currency accelerated its growth - the dollar basket index (USDX) finished trading day at around 82.24. The Federal Reserve "Minute" cheered bears to open short positions - the majority of management FOMC members believe that the downside inflation risks have been reduced and the global investment community would wait for the interest rates growth after the QE-3 is over.

The Bank of England has confused its tracks - these are the monetary control last meeting minutes. Mark Carney pointed to possible monetary policy negative effects rapid tightening last week, as well as to the "strong pound" negative role for the export. Two monetary policy committee representatives - Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty, voted for a rate growth to 0.25% on 20 August. However, the traders quite sluggish reacted to this event - in the moment GBP/USD reached the level of 1.6677, after which we saw again the British currency sale. The investors still look with skepticism on the pound and therefore the quotations short-term growth is used to increase short positions.

The USD/JPY is growing having gained 0.73%. The negative Japan July trade balance showed a growth that caused the greatest concern on the investors’ part. The Federal Reserve last meeting and its moderately positive minutes also supported the demand for the greenback.




 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.08.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

After the FOMC meeting minutes publication the American dollar strengthened against the major currency pairs. The single currency has fallen by 65 points down. Then it tried to recover the losses.

The trading volumes remain in the increase area with small divergence signs. The pair is being traded in the direction of a narrow descending channel, to the upper bound of which at 1.3290 a corrective rates growth is observed.

The price is finding the support at 1.3230. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3290, the next one is at 1.3360.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.3230.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound continues to lose positions against the dollar. And, despite the fact that the volume is gradually reduced down, the downward trend is still in force.

There was a short-term growth to the resistance level of 1.6640. The level retest was followed by a price rebound down. At the same time, the sellers managed to come close the downtrend channel 1.6570 lower bound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the downward movement will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.6500.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The American dollar strengthened significantly against the Japanese yen. The growth rates came to the historical resistance level of 104.00, from which there the rates have been rebounded down by 300 points four months. The price went up at lower volumes to the resistance level of 104.00. Apparently, the price consolidation will be continued. The retest is expected in a short term.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the resistance at 104.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horisontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 104.00. We expect a consolidation now.



Frank (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar general strengthening after the FOMC last meeting minutes publication. The FOMC minutes showed that the Fed still has no plans to raise the interest rates in the near future. The Fed will use the excess reserves as a tool for a change in the interest rate. There is an increasing division between the FOMC members how rapidly the situation on the labor market will be improved. The price could not fix above the level of 0.9130.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9170.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American currency continued to strengthen against its major competitors on Friday - the dollar index (USDX) finished the last week at 82.32. The EUR/USD lost 0.3% amid the USA Fed Chairman comments in Jackson Hole. Janet Yellen said that the continued faster-than-expected employment growth may lead to an earlier federal funds rate increase. It was enough for the bears to push the EUR/USD rate to 1.3320, where traders began to fix the profits. The pair EUR/USD continued to fall on Monday trading.

The GBP/USD was traded in a narrow range of 1.6560 -1.6600. The market participants took a break to evaluate the pound downward trend prospects which we have seen the last 7 trading weeks. Even the Federal Reserve Chief’s speech on economic symposium in Jackson Hole could not push traders to an active trading.

The USD/JPY continued to grow to new maximums after a small technical correction. The bulls have responded positively to the Janet Yellen’s statement about the monetary policy possible earlier than expected tightening. The American dollar was in demand and the price reached the level of 104.20, then investors decided to take some profits on long positions. The pair slightly fell on Monday.




 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.08.2014


Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)

General overview


The European Central Bank head supported the idea of the euro further weakening his statements. Draghi’s speech was "dovish". He said that the ECB June easing measures should spur the demand, a weaker euro would support the economy and the European regulator was ready to the policy further softening if necessary.

The price three-week consolidation above the strong support level of 1.3360 was followed by a confirmed breakthrough. The sellers managed not only to break below 1.3360, but also to consolidate under the resistance level of 1.3290. The price updated the current month minimums on the increased volume during the President Draghi’s speech.

The price is finding the support at 1.3170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.3170 soon.



Pound(GBP)

General overview

The British pound was steady against the dollar and closed the session almost at opening prices. There were not any thing interesting from the newsflow, the pound was under the external information influence and the most important driver for the market could be the technical factors presented by the strong support. The British pound trading has been continuing in the narrow downward channel direction for the second month.

The dollar confirmed strengthening against the GBP has been stopped at the support level of 1.6570, which came at a reduced price volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect a bounce upwards. The upward bounce potential target is 1.6640.





Yen (JPY)

General Overview


After the central bankers symposium, the dollar/yen has taken another upward jump, but has been stopped by the strong resistance levels, which resulted in a relatively small increase in the dollar against the yen on the Friday trading basis. This was the bulls’ week final point where the main driver was the Fed’s minutes publication, showing the growth in the policy tightening sentiments in the USA Central Bank leadership.

The resistance level of 102.60 has been an obstacle for buyers during six months, despite the fact that it has made its way up twice. The third level breakthrough, apparently, was the signal for the medium-term uptrend continuation.

The level of 102.65 breakthrough up comes amid low volumes, this allowed the bulls to raise the price to the historical resistance level of 103.90 - 104.00 formed from 2014.04.03.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 104.00. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 104.35.



Frank (CHF)

General overview

Today the debt crisis problem has receded, but the economic recovery stop in the eurozone by the end of the second quarter and the ECB promise to keep rates low for a long time do not allow the SNB to abandon the restrictions on the foreign exchange market. In Zuercher Kantonalbank believe that the Switzerland's central bank is limited in decision-making till the ECB will not start raising rates.

The franc also fell against the background of the dollar comprehensive strengthening. The dollar strengthened significantly after The Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said that the United States economy was recovering, and added that the situation in the labor market had been also improved.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9210.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The single European currency has collapsed on Monday to the next local minimum against the dollar. The political and the Eurozone economy news did not give the "bulls" any chance for the euro recovery. The reason that caused another euro fall against the dollar could be the M. Draghi’s statements reporting about the possible monetary policy easing next phase beginning. In addition, the Ifo Institute Germany business sentiment report led to the market disappointments where the indicators had recorded the results lower and weaker than expected.


The British pound also opened the week lower against the dollar, but then it was able to return to the previous week levels. Obviously, this fact - the first lost sterling positions return occurred because of the GBP/USD strong technical supports and the absence of disappointing news where the last statistic wasn’t published due to the non-working day.


The yen continues to strengthen against the dollar on the optimism fall in the Japan stock market which may continue if the data on the State's economy do not offer the arguments to buy the pair.




 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.08.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The market opening occurred with a gap (the price break). At the time the gap has not been worked out. The short-term price consolidation above the support level of 1.3170 will lead to the price bounce upwards, followed by the price gap overlap.

The gap closing will allow the buyers to correct the price to the downtrend channel upper bound 1.3230. The downward channel upper bound retest is more likely to be followed by the price bounce downward.

The price is finding the support at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3130. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.3170 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.3130 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound cannot break above the resistance level of 1.6570 for the fourth day. The consolidation below is followed by the sales volumes decrease which suggests the possible price bounce downward.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward one. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.6640, 1.6700. The approach to these lines may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.6500.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The two weeks American dollar growth has been stopped at the resistance level of 104.35. The level formed the correctional wave, enabling the sellers to break below the support level of 103.70.

The level of 104.00 testing comes amid the low volumes. The pullback has no any special support from the sellers. And, apparently, the dollar decline against the Japanese yen will be stopped at the next support level of 103.70.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The downward trend line 103.70 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 104.35 growth.



Frank (CHF)

General overview

The dollar could not continue to grow. It was traded at level of 0.9160 which is below the Asian max, while the down side fluctuations were limited by the support level of 0.9130.

While the pair is trading above the broken resistance level of 0.9090, the further growth and the 92nd figure testing possibility remain high. The 91st figure loss will weaken the "bullish" impulse and may lead to the fall to 0.9000.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 0.9210.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at around 82.67. The EUR/USD remained under the pressure on the background of the United States positive macroeconomic data. The July durable goods orders release showed 22.6% increase which provides a strong private consumption solid foundation in the current quarter. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board also has pleased the market participants and a good report on this background pushed the euro/dollar to the level of 1.3165. The pair was returned above this level.

The GBP/USD amid the lack of interesting reports publication consolidated in a narrow range. However, as soon as the market participants got a pleasant surprise from the United States on the durable goods orders and the consumer confidence index - the sellers began actively selling the GBP/USD, based on the continued United States economy strong growth in this year 3rd quarter.

The stock index S & P500 storms all new maximums, followed by the Japanese stock market stretching and it all ends with the positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States on the durable goods orders. Against this background, we saw the bullish sentiment on the USD/JPY. The traders are still positive about the American dollar prospects and redeem any USD/JPY quotations decrease.




 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.08.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency is still the pressure. The euro selling has been resumed that can be caused by the sufficiently strong United States economy data. However, it seems not the only the euro weakening factor, it is possible that the investors are beginning to prepare for the euro zone inflation release which will be published later this week and the forecasts predict the further consumer price index reduction.

The sellers did not manage to break below the support level of 1.3170. The level breakthrough was followed by the relatively weak price reduction continuation amid the lower volumes.

The price is finding the support at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3130 The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The trend is directed downwards. We expect the level of 1.3170 touching soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound also fell against the dollar, but new minimums were not tested. Like the euro, the pound has increased pressure during the American session following the U.S. economy published data. However, the UK news had a bleak character.

The four day price consolidation above the resistance level of 1.6570 was followed by the price bounce downward. The bouncing was followed by the background of the increased volume and fell to the minimum - 1.6545.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6570 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6500 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar/yen spent the yesterday trading in the differently directed movement. The investors bought the yen amid the falling Japan stock market and then it was sold under the United States economy good data influence.

The Japanese currency was traded against the dollar within a narrow range. The historical resistance level of 104.00 was tested. Because the fact that the testing occurred at the lower volumes, the buyers did not manage to consolidate above the level of 104.00.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 104.00, 104.35.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Eurozone economy recovery has been stopped forces the SNB to maintain measures to curb the national currency growth against the euro. Today, the debt crisis problem has been receded, but the economic recovery stop by the end of the second quarter and the ECB promise to keep rates low for a long time do not allow the SNB to abandon the restrictions on the foreign exchange market.

The dollar was stable against other major currencies after the United States consumer confidence upbeat data release and the controversial durable goods orders report.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 0.9210.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The main American currency competitors could return some lost ground. The EUR/USD gained 0.2% against the partial profit taking on the short positions. No important macroeconomic statistics have been published, and after the price drop to the level of 1.3160 traders started to close the "shorts", which allowed the euro to correct to the 32nd figure. Nevertheless the pair decreased.


The GBP/USD is trying to test 1.6535-1.6600 short-term trading range upper bound, but the bears fought off the attack which indicates the pessimism presence about the British currency prospects. Amid the empty macroeconomic calendar we again observed a side trend.


The Japan and the United States stock market quotations decrease cheered the bears to short opening. However, we have not seen the American currency strong sales - the bulls are still buying the rollbacks and we observe the consolidation within the range of 103.70 -104.15.


http://www.picshare.ru/uploads/140829/y1fcE3BS81.jpg[/img

[url=http://www.picshare.ru/view/4952457/][img]http://www.picshare.ru/uploads/140804/ABEc1AfAnj.jpg[/url]
 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.08.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The euro was not able to reverse the situation and did not strengthen against the dollar. The Eurozone economic statistics has not issued anything supportive for the single currency.

The buyers failed to break above the resistance level of 1.3230 and the downtrend channel of 1.3200 upper boundary. The two levels breakthrough occurred at the high volumes this week.

The price is finding the support at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3130. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.3230 and 1.3290.



Pound (GBP)

The British pound did grow against the American dollar. The important economic and political news weren’t published nor in the Britain, nor in the United States.

The level of 1.6640 breakthrough occurred at lower volumes, the price for the fourth time will be able to test the 1.6640 downward trend line strength (the downtrend channel upper bound).

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6570 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6500 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

The yen did not continue to rise against the dollar. There is the optimism fall in the Japan stock market where the Nikkei was dropped by 0.5%.


The second approach to the resistance level of 104.20 was fallowed by the price bounce down. Against the background of the low volumes the American dollar corrected down against the Japanese yen.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound target are the support levels of 104.00 and 104.35.



Franc (CHF)

The dollar was under the pressure from its major opponents. Amid the lack of the economic news the strong support and resistance levels led to the correction, resulting the dollar fell against all the majors.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9210.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The market is quite. The major pairs showed a further side correction during which the dollar slightly fell against the euro and the pound and also got slightly stronger to the yen. The State's economy supported the dollar, still it had a minimal impact on the market. Clearly, the investors are waiting for the stronger drivers that may appear from the United States labor data this week.

There was a more strong States economic recovery in the 2nd quarter - the GDP growth was revised from + 4.2% q/q, instead of the reducing to 3.8% q/q, while the previous calculations showed to + 3.9% q/q, the secondary housing market sales signed contracts number in July rose more than expected, showing +3.3% m/m, with expectations to see +0.6% m/m, and the initial claims number fell to 298 thousand last week, while the forecast expected about 300 thousand.

We expect the U.S. July costs and incomes data and the Chicago activity reports. The demand indicators, which are ranked as costs and incomes are forecasted to be expected with a continued +0.2% m/m and +0.3% m/m growth respectively, which indicates the stable consumer activity, and the August Chicago PMI index with the rise to 56.3 from 52.6 previously. These results are the positive indicators for the dollar and can support it.




 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
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52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.09.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The Eurozone economy reports have put a pressure on the European single currency which lowered the euro/dollar. The reason for this disappointment came from Germany and the European Commission studies on the European bloc economy sentiment.

The buyers finally managed to close the price gap. Once the gap was closed, the price immediately dropped to the support level of 1.3130.

The price is finding the support at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3070 The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3230.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.3070 soon.



Pound (GBP)

The pound/dollar continues to trade near the strong technical levels reached by the "bearish" trend. The UK economy news was favorable for the pound – the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported the August strong sales growth, the indicator rose to 37 from 21, while it was expected to rise only 27.

The continuous price consolidation occurs in the downward channel direction. As the resistance level of 1.6640 is not broken, the potential downtrend remains in force.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6570 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6500 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar. Obviously, the stock market and the technical resistance levels weakness favor the profit-taking on the instrument. In addition, the pressure on the dollar could be strengthened by the exporters selling.

There has been the support level of 103.70 retest. In the light of the high-volume the sellers tried to break below the level, but the test was followed by the price false bounce up.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 104.00, the next one is level of 104.35.



Franc (CHF)

The dollar strengthened after the preliminary data showed that the United States domestic product gross was increased by 4.2% in the second quarter, exceeding the growth expectations of 3.9%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9210.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price decreases we advise to short with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9090. If the price grows we advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9210.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar became the market leader - the dollar index basket (USDX) is at around 82.73. The EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the weak Eurozone data. The Germany and Spain July retail sales were significantly decreased which together with the CPI decrease to 0.3% y/y has caused the euro sales. A deflationary threat still hangs over the Eurozone and therefore the traders wait for the ECB decisive actions on September 4.

The bulls once again tried to attack the level of 1.6602 on the GBP/USD, but once again the bears successfully repulsed the attack. After the Institute of Michigan revised data publication we saw strong pound selling. The consumer confidence index rose to 82.5 in August, which is a positive signal for the economy, now it is possible to expect the personal consumption growth.

The Japan macroeconomic statistics disappointed the foreign exchange market participants - in addition to the CPI decrease, the same household spending fell sharply by 5.9% in July which is extremely negative for the economy’s growth. In this regard, we observed the Japanese yen weakening and the USD/JPY price growth which at the moment reaches 104.10. The Japan's economy after the April 1 sales tax rates increase shows a sharp slowdown while the United States showed a steady growth over the same period which caused the bullish trend continuation.




 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.09.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The single currency broke the resistance level of 1.3170 last week and fell to the support level of 1.3130 where started trading this week. The short-term level tests have allowed the buyers to close the price gap.

The level of 1.3170 five day retest led to the price bounce down and the further dollar strengthening. The downward trend continued amid the low volumes.

The price is finding the support at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3070. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3230.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair is back to the ‘Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.3070 testing soon.



Pound (GBP)

The pound trading continues in the downward channel direction for the second month. In the short term, the USD strengthening against the GBP has been stopped at the support level of 1.6570. The temporary break which occurred last week was followed by the correctional price growth up to the downward trend line 1.6640

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.6640 retest may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.6500.



Yen (JPY)

The resistance level of 104.00 first break wasn’t long. The buyers has broken the historical resistance for the second time and fixed above. The dollar strengthening against the Japanese yen occurred amid the lower volumes. Despite the fact that the upward trend is gradually fizzles out, the resistance level of 104.00 break up in the longer term indicates the bullish trend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 104.00, the next one is at 103.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.35, the next one is at 104.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 104.35. After breaking 104.35 the buyers may go to 104.80.



Franc (CHF)

The franc continued to decrease against the dollar strengthening. The American currency has strengthened its position after the United States solid economic publication.

The data showed that the United States consumer confidence index rose to 92.4 in August, compared with 90.3 in July. It has been the highest level since October 2007.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9200, the next one is at 0.9240.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair is back to the “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9240.

 

Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The pairs spent week beginning within the small ranges amid the United States banking output the EUR/USD was held in the horizontal flat market 1.3118 -1.3145 amid the empty macroeconomic calendar day. Traders are ready to test the 312 figure, but don’t hurry to take positions before the ECB meeting, scheduled for Thursday, September 4th.

The UK manufacturing sector PMI release disappointed the investors. The August resulting value was 52.5 while the index is below the 12-month average for two months in a row which is a negative signal for the production sector. We observed the GBP/USD price growth before the report publication, but then the investors were selling the British currency.

The bulls keep the USD/JPY situation under control. Now almost nothing threatens the upward trend and against this background we observe the price increase even on an empty macroeconomic calendar. As the importers do not prevent such a scenario - then their risks are hedged and they are also ready for the upward trend.




 
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Fort Financial Services

Master Trader
Jul 2, 2014
449
0
52
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.09.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The volumes divergence indicates the downward trend weakening. But they haven’t reported about the trend reversal up signals. The euro decrease against the American dollar is in the downward channel which is the price movement benchmark.

In addition, the trading goes below the last week minimum - the resistance level of 1.3170. This level is a strong resistance on the buyers’ way.

The price is finding the support at 1.3070. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3170.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The pair is back to the “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a directed down. We believe the pair will move to 1.3070 soon.



Pound (GBP)

The pound made an attempt to rise against the dollar at the beginning of this week. Earlier this week, the market sentiment was on the sterling side which probably wad due to the technical factors and some policy tightening strengthening expectations by the Bank of England.

The buyers managed to come to the resistance level of 1.6640. This growth happened amid the negative GBP fundamental data. Then the sellers managed to break through the support level of 1.6570 and to reduce the price to the support level of 1.6500.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6500, the next one is at 1.6440. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6640.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.6440.



Yen (JPY)

The Japanese yen dropped against the dollar and as the result recorded a loss. The historic resistance level of 104.80 did not stop the American dollar growth against the Japanese yen. The small downward correction was followed by the confirmed uptrend continuation.

The dollar strengthening has allowed the buyers to break above the strong resistance levels of 104.35 and 104.80.

The price is finding the first support at 104.80, the next one is at 104.35. The price is finding the first resistance at 105.20, the next one is at 105.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 105.60.



Franc (CHF)

The dollar gained on the euro weakness and the Asian markets rise which have kept the investors demand for the yen refuge.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9200, the next one is at 0.9240.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair is back to the “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9240. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9300.

 
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