Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

$TLT Long Term Cycles & Elliott Wave

Firstly the ETF fund TLT inception date was on July 22, 2002. This instrument seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of or in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities twenty years or more remaining. There is a lack of data before July 22, 2002. This article will focus on the larger uptrend cycle from there which is presumed finished a cycle higher from those lows in wave ((a)) in July 2016. The pullback from that high appeared to be an Elliott wave zig zag structure in three waves into the October 2018 wave ((b)) lows.

Secondly: The aforementioned pullback lower in the wave ((b)) was strong enough to suggest it was correcting the cycle up from the all time lows. Thus it appears ended that cycle. From those October 2018 lows the instrument has made another high above the July 2016 highs creating a bullish sequence. This sequence higher from the October 2018 lows appears to be incomplete. On the weekly chart shown below, Elliott wave corrective sequences are in either three, seven or eleven swings. Impulses are in either five, nine or thirteen swings. It is obvious the three swings lower from the July 2016 highs into the October 2018 lows were of three swings.

The analysis continues and concludes below the weekly chart.



Thirdly and in conclusion the cycle up from the October 2018 lows appears to be an impulse that appears incomplete. The wave III cycle up from there ended at the March 2020 highs. Down from there a three swing cycle in wave IV is favored ended at 139.01 also in March 2020. While the current pullback continues to show it will remain above there it can see a turn higher toward the 190 to 195 area in the larger wave (I) before a correction of the cycle up from the October 2018 lows.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Soybean Oil is one of the grain & oilseed commodities, along with wheat, soybeans, corn, rice, oats and others. Just behind palm oil, it is the second most used vegetable oil, basically, for frying and baking. Also, soybean oil finds applications medically and, when processed, for printing inks and oil paints. One can trade Soybean Oil futures at Chicago Board of Trade in contracts of 60'000 pounds each under the ticker ZL #F.

Currently, we see commodities like wheat and soybeans turning higher after a long period of depressed prices. Based on the correlation within group of grains & oilseeds, the soybean oil is expected to turn higher as well. In particular, wave structure of ZL #F supports that bullish view. Will the rally in the soybean oil prices make it less affordable for the broad population?

Soybean Oil Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 11.09.2020​

The weekly chart below shows the soybean oil front contract ZL #F. From the all-time lows, the prices have developed a cycle higher in black wave ((w)) of a grand super cycle degree. It has ended in March 2008 at 71.23. From the highs, a correction lower in wave ((x)) has unfolded as an Elliott Wave zigzag pattern. In 12 years, ZL #F has become cheaper by more than 60% reaching 24.61 level. It is the preferred view that an important bottom on April 2020 has been set and the black wave ((x)) has ended. From the lows, the recovery in prices may have started.

For 2020-2030, the expectations are to break out to the new all-time highs. The target for wave ((y)) to end will be 95.88-139.95 area.

Soybean Oil Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 11.09.2020​

The daily chart below shows in more detail the advance from the April 2020 lows. From the bottom at 24.61, black wave ((1)) higher is unfolding as an impulse which is still in progress. Within it, waves (1)-(4) have ended, wave (5) is extending higher and should end soon the entire April cycle higher in wave ((1)). Later on, the pullback in wave ((2)) should find support in 3, 7, 11 swings for an extension higher in wave ((3)).

Investors and traders can be, therefore, looking to buy pullbacks in 3, 7 or 11 swings against 24.61 lows. In a long run, soybean oil should reach 95.88-139.95 area.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Early in 2020, the whole transportation industry saw an amazing decline across the marketplace. Many of the company's stock trade lower into level only seen during the 2009 financial crisis. During the decline, we express to the world, this was a tremendous chance to buy the dip and that will take time to see or develop a low. We have seen already world indices like $SPY trading into new all-time highs. But many within the transportation sectors are lagging when related to Indices and also other sectors like Technology. We did an article a few months ago mentioning that Southwest Airlines (LUV) was showing bullish sequences and supporting the sector. As we were expected, the Airline has been trading higher and then Jet Blue enter the equation because Southwest was leading.

But now Jet Blue which was lagging is showing the same bullish sequences supporting the sector. We at elliottwave-forecast.com look at the market, as a whole, and always relate the instruments. And divide them by sectors, groups to forecast the market overall. Jet Blue's opportunity was explained in the following article. In which we covered the whole sector and the great opportunity it was.

The Market-based in the Elliott wave Theory advance in sequences of 5-9-13-17 when impulse or corrective in 3-7-11, both sequences agree in swing number five. Every time you see either a five waves advance into a new cycle makes the side with the five waves in control. Here is a chart of a five waves advance in the Elliott wave Theory:



As we can see after five waves off the lows, the Marke does three waves pullback and trade with the previous cycle.

The other idea or sequence is the corrective sequence. The idea is that the market trade in 3-7-11, but in order to reach the 7 swings, first needs to pass through swing number 5. A seven swing structure is called WXY, which does show three swings into the W. Then three swings in the X and another three swings in the Y. So, W-X and first swing of the Y created five swings and because needs to trade into the swing makes the side with the five swings in control.

The following chart is a representation of the WXY with the seven swing structure:



Jet Blue is showing five swings since the lows at 03.23.2020, as we showing in the following chart:

Jet Blue Elliott Wave Chart​

Now Jet Blue should see more upside in either of the two possible scenarios. Either, if the symbol will be within the process of an impulse higher or if the advance will prove corrective. As we have mentioned above Southwest was leading the sector and now it comes to Jet Blue. Overall every single move comes with a process, and we have learned over the years. That trade what the market is giving us and not follow the theory or draw a conclusion because of the nature of the recovery now looks overlapping and corrective.

The theory always allows an answer to every move. The reason why we relied on the sequences, and the correlation among the sectors and groups. As of right now, we take the five swings higher from 03.23.2020 lows and push the upside, the Elliott wave count will be developing with the data. Times have changed, so we have adjusted the Theory and implement all these changes and corrections to make it better.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Earlier this week, news came out that a vaccine from Pfizer and BionTech has a 90% effectiveness. It triggered a big rally in the market on Monday. The U.S. and Europe are now still struggling with a new wave of Covid-19 infection with potential lockdown measures. There's no question that people need to brace for social and economic pain in the short term due to the restrictive measures. However, we can look forward to mass vaccination in 2021 to finally bring life back to normal.

The tech sector which has outperformed others during the pandemic now start to see a rotation to other sectors. One World Index which sees a breakout is the Eurostoxx 50, a stock index primarily dominated by France and Germany's stocks. The Index manages to break above July 21 high (3451). This suggests that further upside is likely.

Mass vaccination should help social and economic life around the world return to normal and that's what everyone wants. However, what market has not fully realized at this stage is that this in turns reduces the need for more monetary and fiscal stimulus. If the most important driver supporting the market is taken off or reduced, it will be interesting to see the market's reaction down the road after the early optimism fades.

Eurostoxx 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart​

Eurostoxx 50 (SX5E) 4 hour Elliott Wave chart above shows the Index ended the correction on March 16 low (2302). It has now broken above its previous high wave ((1)) / ((A)) at 3451. This suggests that the Index more likely sees further upside. The rally can either unfold as an impulse in which case the current rally can extend in wave ((3)). Alternatively, it can be in wave ((C)). Regardless, the typical extension for the third leg of the rally is 100%-123.6% of the first leg higher. This suggests a potential target of 4070 - 4341 area while dips continue to stay above wave ((2)) / ((B)) low at 2920.87. Alternatively, if Index fails to get a follow through to the upside, we can have a truncated ((A))-((B))-((C)) rally. If the Index turns lower and breaks below the ascending trend line drawn from 3.16.2020 low, that could be an early indication that a truncation might occur.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of 4 hour Elliott Wave Charts of Dow Futures ticker symbol: $YM_F, which we presented to members. In which, the rally from 23 March 2020 lows, showed the higher high sequence in an impulse structure favored more strength to take place. Also, the right side tag pointed higher & favored more strength. Therefore, we advised our members to buy the dips in Dow Futures in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

Dow Futures 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart​

Above is the Dow Futures 4 hour Elliott Wave Chart from the 10/29/2020 update. In which, the rally from 15 June 2020 low unfolded as 5 waves impulse structure. Whereas wave 1 ended at $26658 high, wave 2 ended at $24743 low. Up from there, wave 3 ended at $28783 high. Wave 4 ended at $28257 low, wave 5 ended at $29180 high, and thus completed 5 waves & made a pullback.

Down from there, the index made a pullback lower. The internals of that pullback unfolded as an Elliott wave zigzag structure where wave (A) ended at $26407 low. Wave (B) bounce ended at $28846 high and wave (C) was expected to reach $26074- $24358 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of (A)-(B). Before providing a buying opportunity looking for more upside or for 3 wave reaction higher at least.

Dow Futures 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart​

Here’s the latest 4 hour Elliott Wave Chart from 10/27/2020 update, in which the index managed to reach the blue box area at $26074- $24358 & showing a sharp reaction higher taking place from the blue box area. Allowed members to catch the rally shortly after taking the longs at the blue box area.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The Metals sector has been slowly coming back since the lows in late 2015 and is ready for prime time attention after Gold has recently made new all time highs. Abraplata a Jr. silver, gold, and copper explorer. As such, has a very volatile chart but follows spot silver fairly closely in swings. Abraplata has projects in Argentina and Chile, at various stages of exploration, from drill-ready to PEA stage.

The company is focused on further advancing its 100%-owned Diablillos silver-gold project in the mining-friendly Salta province of Argentina, which contains a large resource base of 80.9 million ounces of silver and over 730,000 ounces of gold in the Indicated category.

We are going to take a look at chart since the all time low set in March 2020. This is an OTC ticker, the Canadian Symbol ABRA.CA will have the same count, but priced in Canadian dollars.

Abraplata Elliottwave View:​

Since the March 2020 lows, the count is showing a clear impulsive structure into the August Peak. Red I is favoured to have set at 0.36 on August the 10th, 4 days after Silver peaked. At this point in time, it is good to have some patience for another swing lower to an extreme area. The blue box area on this chart, is an area where a bounce can take place in 3 swings at least. We do not like to trade the middle of a trend, but like to trade extreme areas (shown in the blue box).

Presently, the chart is still favouring one more swing lower in a double correction, to the 0.13 area. As this is a penny stock, it is important to use proper risk management. The technicals on this chart are fairly clean, and I favour the price structure to track silver closely until silver sets a low also.

Risk Management​

Using proper risk management is absolutely essential when trading or investing in a volatile stocks. Elliott Wave counts can evolve quickly, be sure to have your stops in and define your risk when trading.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Bank of America ended a movement in ranges that had been in place since June, after a slight recovery from the drawdown in March due to COVID-19. The global capital markets woke up stimulated with a strong risk appetite on November 9th, this made that stocks such as Bank of America could come out of their slumber of months. A range that was getting smaller and smaller, which for technical analysts like us, it was an alert indicated that something was going to break the range very soon.

Bank of America Range Phase​

For the month of June, $BAC peaked at $28.93 followed by a 3 waves movement that we call (A) (B) (C) as wave ((4)), a typical zig-zag correction in Elliott waves (for more information on Elliott waves go to this link, Elliott waves). Then the stock made a high low what we call (A) and a low high we call (B), looking for a flat formation that would give us a strong bullish continuation. However, the high lows and low highs continued to come to create a triangle formation as we see in the chart.

Breaking the Range​

The month of November came and Bank of America shares were still aimless after 5 consecutive months. The range had narrowed further and we were on the lookout that a breakout was imminent. And on November 9, stocks finally exploded higher, after a hesitant start, but more because of the risk appetite presented by the markets worldwide. Coincidence, I don't know, but we looked for the upside breakout and it did. We are currently looking for the stock to trade above 28.92 before selling begins and we see a major correction.



In Elliottwave Forecast we update the one-hour charts 4 times a day and the 4-hour charts once a day for all our 78 instruments and also the blue boxes and rigth side mark. We do a daily live session where we guide our clients on the right side of the market. In addition, we have a chat room where our moderators will help you with any questions you have about what is happening in the market at the moment.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

$EWC Canada ETF Long Term Cycles & Elliott Wave

Firstly the EWC instrument inception date was 3/12/1996. The Canada ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of large and mid-sized companies in Canada. This is of course reflected in the price. The best Elliott Wave reading of the long term cycles presume some lower prices that did not exist prior to the ETF fund inception date.

Shown on the monthly chart, the bullish cycle from all time lows is believed to have ended in November 2007. This is mostly in line with many other broad based ETF’s and indices that ended larger cycles near that time. Likewise the steep pullback lower into the March 2009 lows replicated the pullbacks in other ETF & indices instruments. This pullback was strong enough to suggest it had corrected the cycle up from the all time lows. The analysis and commentary continues below the EWC Monthly chart.



Secondly the bounce from the March 2009 lows has not got back above the November 2007 highs as of yet. Compared to other indices instruments it is lagging. That not to say it will not catch up it is just the way it works out. EWC bounces higher as related instruments are going higher however at a slower pace. Similarly, the instrument corrects cycles in pullbacks lower when the related instruments are doing the same.

The analysis and conclusion as mentioned earlier; Price has not got above the November 2007 highs yet. As the above chart shows it will eventually in due time. The cycles remain bullish nearer term while above the March 2020 lows. The instrument should proceed higher with the related other countries ETF’s and indices reflecting the improvements in the progression of mankind.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Two weeks' back-to-back good news on virus vaccine from Pfizer and Moderna have buoyed risk sentiment. Overnight news reports Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine has even a better 94.5% efficacy rate and longer shelf life compared to the Pfizer's. New Zealand dollar, usually a proxy for risk sentiment, rose to 0.6910 after the news.

Prior to all the good news on vaccine, we have suggested to our members that New Zealand Dollar will likely outperform. We come with this conclusion not because we know there will be good news on vaccines, but it's based on various New Zealand technical chart observations.

NZDUSD Daily Elliott Wave Chart​

The weekend chart from 14 November above shows that pair has a higher sequence since March 19. 2020 low. It rallied in a 5 waves impulsive structure which ended wave a at 0.6715. Wave b pullback ended as a running flat at 0.6511. Pair has resumed higher in wave c and expected to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing against 0.6511 low for further upside.

EURNZD Daily Elliott Wave Chart​

Another pair that gives us a clue on the outperformance of New Zealand currency is EURNZD above. As we can see, pair has a lower low sequence from March 19, 2020. This is technically like the inverse of NZDUSD. A 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension from March 19 high should see pair reaching at minimum 1.483 - 1.548 to end wave III / c. It can extend farther below to 161.8% towards 1.379 if it's a wave III.

The good news from Moderna overnight is the second positive vaccine news after Pfizer/BioNTech last week. With better preliminary results, it provides a massive boost to the fight against Covid-19. New Zealand also got a boost after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) downplayed the need of negative interest rate last week. The two charts above argue that the positive risk sentiment will be here for a while.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Oil has found its bottom in April 2020. From the lows, it is extending higher and should become even more expensive in the coming years. Similarly, indices have found an important bottom in March 2020. From the lows, world indices like S&P500 and Nikkei have managed to break to new all-time highs. The mighty Energy Sector, by contrast, seems still to be lagging relatively to both indices and oil. Is it just lagging? Or maybe it has not found the long-term bottom yet?

Back in March, we have seen a French Supermajor Total reaching the extreme area 22.83-14.97. However, the internal structure of the pattern has suggested that another marginal lows still can happen. Now, lets take a look on another two Supermajors: Italian ENI and British BP. These may provide a clue in locating the important bottom in the Energy Sector.

Energy Supermajor Eni Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 11.17.2020​

Monthly chart below shows the Eni stock $ENI at Italian Bourse in Milan. From the all-time lows, first, it has developped a cycle higher in wave (I) of super cycle degree. $ENI has printed the all-time highs in 2007.

A correction lower is unfolding as a an an Elliott Wave Zigzag pattern being 5-3-5 structure. First, impulse in red wave a lower has ended on 08.2011. Then, red wave b higher has topped on 07.2014. From there, 5 waves lower of red wave c may be still in progress towards the equal legs extension area 3.32 and even lower.



An alternative view presents a converging triangle in red wave b. Such triangles demonstrate both a converging price action and a converging RSI indicator reading. In such a case, triangle in wave b can be seen accomplished as late as 04.2019. In terms of the cycles correlation, the stock of Total $FP supports that view. Indeed, red wave b in $FP has ended on 09.2018.

Now, the thrust lower in red wave c can hardly extend towards equality with the wave a. As a matter of fact, the stock price cannot become negative. However, at least a 0.618-0.786 area as a target should be reached in 5 waves lower. The pattern of wave c looks incomplete and two new lows can still take place reaching towards 5.55-2.68 area.

Energy Supermajor BP Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 11.17.2020​

Monthly chart below shows the BP stock $BP. at London Stock Exchange. From the all time lows, it has printed the all-time highs in 2006, one year before Total and Eni did.

A correction lower is unfolding as an Elliott Wave Double Three pattern being a 3-3-3 structure. First, three waves in red wave w lower have ended on 06.2010. Then, red wave x higher has topped on 10.2018. From there, three waves lower of red wave y may be still in progress towards the equal legs extension area 175.18 and even lower.

Energy Sector Outlook​

The patterns of three Supermajors Total, Eni and BP provide an idea that the bottom in Energy Sector is still to come. The lows of 2020 will be most probably revisited. Also, new lows could still take place. While French Total has reached the 22.83-14.97 extension area, it can revisit this area while setting new marginal lows. Italian ENI can still see one or two new lows towards 5.55-3.32 area. Also, British BP can break down in another swing towards 175.18 level and even lower. Only then, a long term bottom in Energy Sector can be set and a rally in wave (III) to new all-time highs can follow.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Another instrument that we have been trading lately is Exxon Mobil Corporation ( $XOM ) from Group 3. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of $XOM, published in members area of the website. As our members know, XOM has been showing incomplete impulsive sequences from the October 31.11 low. Consequently we were calling for more strength in the Stock, suggesting members to avoid selling it and keep favoring the long side. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast and Trading strategy.

XOM 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 11.12.2020​

XOM is giving us pull back wave ((iv)) black that looks incomplete at this stage. We expect to see another leg down toward 35.47-34.22 ( buyers zone) . From marked Blue Box area area we expect rally to take us toward new highs ideally. As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce. We don’t recommend selling it. Strategy is buying the dips at the marked blue box area. As XOM is bullish against the 32.53 low , we expect to see 3 waves bounce at least from the mentioned zone. As soon as the price reach 50 Fibonacci Retracement against the (x) blue peak, we should make long positions Risk Free ( put SL at BE).

XOM 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 11.13.2020​

Eventually we got another leg down toward blue box area. XOM found buyers and giving us nice reaction when we call wave 4 red completed at the 34.86 low. However we would like to see further separation from the current short term low and ideally to see break above red 3 peak( 11/09) in order to confirm wave 5 is in progress. We don’t recommend selling XOM in any proposed pull back and favor the long side from the blue box.

XOM 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 11.13.2020​

34.86 low held nicely during the short term pull back and we got further rally. XOM broke 11/09 peak confirming next leg up is in progress. Cycle from the 31.11 low can remain in progress as far as the 34.86 pivot holds. We expect to get pull back that should find buyers again for further rally.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room



Elliott Wave Forecast

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Impact Silver. Another Jr metals producer and explorer that has a great looking chart, and what looks like, a triple nest. If the nest is correct, then the upside on this stock may be very lucrative. Impact Silver has a fairly clean chart, but again keep in mind, it is penny stock territory. This chart has more history to it than some others. And as mentioned above, from the low in 2016, the structure supports a possible triple nest.

Again, important to remember, that these miners follow the spot metal markets, Gold and Silver. So the primary expectation is for the miners to rally along with gold and silver, after the metals have struck a low.

We are going to take a look at chart in a couple of different time frames. This is an OTC ticker for USA markets, the Canadian Symbol is $IPT and trades on the TSX Venture exchange in Canada. The Canadian chart will have different pricing, but the structure will be the same.

Impact Silver Elliottwave Weekly View:​

When looking at this stock on a weekly time frame, it aligns well with the GDX ETF. Impact silver set a low in Jan 2018, at a price of 0.07. From there, it has 5 waves up into Blue (I), which peaked on August 1st, 2016. After that, it has undergone a multi year consolidation, which ended in Blue (II) low in November 2018, at a price of 0.148. From there, another nest in Red I and II are complete, and most recently, further nesting in black ((1)) and ((2)) is favourable. Lets go a bit more in depth on the daily view.

Impact Silver Elliottwave Daily View:​

On the daily view, this stock enjoyed a very respectable 630% gain from the 0.155 low Red II in March 2020 to recent July peak ((1)) at 0.98 . Since then, it is favoured to be correcting in a double correction.

Since the March 2020 lows, the count is showing a clear impulsive structure into the July Peak. As mentioned above, our current expectation with gold and silver, is that there is still more downside possible. With this in mind, I am looking for lower prices still on this stock. There is a blue box extreme where buyers may show up for a bounce in 3 waves at least. This area is from 0.477 to 0.225.

In conclusion, this stock seems to be tracking Silver, more than Gold. And really started to outperform when Silver broke out above $19. Presently, the chart is still favouring one more swing lower in a double correction. As this is a penny stock, it is important to use proper risk management. The technicals on this chart are fairly clean, and I favour the price structure to track silver closely until silver sets a low also.

Risk Management​

Using proper risk management is absolutely essential when trading or investing in a volatile stocks. Elliott Wave counts can evolve quickly, be sure to have your stops in and define your risk when trading.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

More coverage on the theme of Precious Metals market series that I am doing right now. I am looking for Jr. producers that offer lucrative setups and are technically clean from the March cycle low. StrikePoint has a fairly clean chart, but is in deep penny stock territory. Rallying from a low of 0.01 cents to a high of 0.21 into the September Peak represents a very nice 2100% gain. StrikePoint is an exploration company, and thus, represents extreme risk. But the chart has followed the precious metals sector very closely off the March low, so there is no reason to believe it will be any different on another swing higher in Gold and Silver.

We are going to take a look at chart since the all time low set in March 2020. This is an OTC ticker, the Canadian Symbol SKP.CA and they are listed on the TSX Venture exchange in Canada. The Canadian chart will have different pricing, but the structure will be the same.

StrikePoint Elliottwave View:​

Since the March 2020 lows, the count is showing a clear impulsive structure into the September Peak. Red I is favoured to have set at 0.21 on September 18. It is possible that this correction has completed at the ((W)) low. However, our current expectation with gold and silver, is that there is still more downside possible. With this in mind, I am looking for lower prices still on this stock. There is no extreme area to measure since the connector ((X)) is not yet complete. the 0.618 retrace for the rally from March low, to September peak, comes in at around 0.08. So that may the area where a low may occur. We do not like to trade the middle of a trend, but like to trade extreme areas.

This stock seems to be tracking Silver, more than Gold. It really started to outperform when Silver broke out above $19. Presently, the chart is still favouring one more swing lower in a double correction. As this is a penny stock, it is important to use proper risk management. The technicals on this chart are fairly clean, and I favour the price structure to track silver closely until silver sets a low also.

Risk Management​

Using proper risk management is absolutely essential when trading or investing in a volatile stocks. Elliott Wave counts can evolve quickly, be sure to have your stops in and define your risk when trading.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave view in Gold Miners (GDX) suggests the Index is correcting the cycle from March 16, 2020 low. The correction is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave Structure. In the 60 minutes chart below, we can see wave (X) of this double three ended at $42.05. The Miners have turned lower in wave (Y).

The internal of wave (Y) is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (X) high at $42.05, wave ((i)) ended at $38.03, and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at $39.24. Index resumes lower in wave ((iii)) towards $37.52, wave ((iv)) ended at $37.87, and wave ((v)) ended at $36.73. This ended wave A of (Y) in higher degree.

Index then bounced in wave B which ended at $38.42. Internal structure of wave B unfolded as a zigzag where wave ((a)) ended at $38.08, wave ((b)) ended at $37.39, and wave ((c)) ended at $38.42. The Gold Miners have extended lower in wave C. Down from wave B high at $38.42, wave ((i)) ended at $37.83 and wave ((ii)) ended at $38.29. Expect a few more lows in the Index to end wave C of (Y) before GDX finds support. A potential support area is 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension from August 5, 2020 high which comes at $31.05 - $33.10.

GDX 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart​

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Lordstown Motors has had a great start to 2020. With the stock price tripling to a peak in Late September, this company has lots of potential for future gains. Lordstown Motors is in the EV sector, which has been scorching hot all year long. Lets take a look at the company profile below:

“Lordstown Motors is an American electric vehicle automaker based in Lordstown, Ohio, which was founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, former CEO of Workhorse Group.

On November 7, 2019, Lordstown Motors became the owner of the former GM Lordstown plant, after signing a sales agreement with automaker General Motors in May 2019. GM loaned Lordstown Motors US$40 million in order to underwrite a substantial part of the plant purchase.

In March 2020, it was revealed that Lordstown Motors paid Workhorse Group US$12,000,000 for the rights to the intellectual property of the Workhorse W-15 pickup truck, Lordstown Motors intends on developing its own electric pickup truck based upon Workhorse's design. As part of the business deal, Workhorse Group was given a 10% equity stake in Lordstown Motors.

In August 2020, GM announced that it has invested $75 million USD in Lordstown Motors. General Motors obtained a seat on Lordstown Motors' board of directors doing so, and is now including Lordstown Motors into its Tier 1 supply chain. With the deal, Lordstown Motors is expected to become a rival to Tesla, Rivian, and Nikola."

The chart looks very technical, lets dive in!

Lordstown Motors Elliottwave View:​

Medium term term view from the Inception in July 2020. There is a clear 5 waves impulse that peaked on 9/22/2020 @ 31.80, Red I. After that, the stock took a much needed breather with a fairly sharp correction. This correction took shape in an ABC 3 swings and reached the blue box extreme area where buyers entered. The blue box, is an equal leg area, where Algo's can be programmed to enter the market (at 100% equal leg measured move). More often than not, the blue boxes provide good opportunities to enter the market.

After setting a low at 12.80 on 10/30/2020 in Red II, the stock has rallied impulsively. Currently, it is favoured to be in a blue (3) before moving higher to complete the sequence from the 10/30 low. After that, a 3, 7 or 11 swing correction should take place, to correct the cycle from the 10/30 low. In short, this stock, and company, look to be making some great moves in the future. The technical picture supports the view that a bullish nest can take shape, after which, a strong impulsive rally can take hold in the future.

Risk Management​

Using proper risk management is absolutely essential when trading or investing in a volatile stocks. Elliott Wave counts can evolve quickly, be sure to have your stops in and define your risk when trading.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of FTSE index published in members area of the Elliottwave-Forecast . As our members know FTSE reached our target zone in the June cycle at 639.9-5231.02 area and found buyers. FTSE is another instrument that has given us nice rally from the Blue Box area recently. The index ended cycle from the June 8th peak as Double Three pattern. Which is also know as 7 swings. In further text we’re going to explain the forecast and Elliott Wave Pattern.

Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Double Three pattern.

Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern​

Double three is the common pattern in the market these days, also known as 7 swing structure. It’s a reliable pattern which is giving us good trading entries with clearly defined invalidation levels and target areas.
The picture below presents what Elliott Wave Double Three pattern looks like. It has (W),(X),(Y) labeling and 3,3,3 inner structure, which means all of these 3 legs are corrective sequences. Each (W) and (Y) are made of 3 swings , they’re having A,B,C structure in lower degree, or alternatively they could have W,X,Y labeling.

FTSE 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 11.02.2020​

At the chart below we can see clear 7 swings in the cycle from the 6502.6 high. Double three pattern has inner labeling: (W)(X)(Y) blue. Each leg of the pull back has corrective structure, when (W) leg has ABC inner labeling, while (Y) leg is double three WXY red. At this moment we can count clear 7 swings down from the June 8th peak . Pull back has already reached equal legs zone at 639.9-5231.02 area . Consequently, turn higher can happen any moment. We don't recommend selling anymore and expect rally from the blue box to happen soon. Proposed leg down may or may not happen.
As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce.You can learn more about Elliott Wave Double Three Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

FTSE 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 11.10.2020​

FTSE keep finding buyers and ended cycle from the June peak right at the blue box : 639.9-5231.02 are. Pull back ended at 5524.47 as Double Three and we got nice rally. Short term cycle from the 5524.47 low is having impulsive sequences. Consequently we expect further rally once (2) blue pull back completes.

Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



Elliott Wave Forecast

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The Swiss franc is a currency that is always in the hurricane of the Forex because on several occasions the Swiss National Bank has intervened to prevent a continued appreciation of the currency against the dollar. The last time we saw a clear consequence for USDCHF intervention was in early 2015 when the pair lost 31 cents in a few minutes. However, these interventions in the USDCHF have not been able to stop the natural cause of the pair, the bearish trend.

As we see in the historical chart, the franc has been appreciating against the dollar for 50 years and it is not unreasonable to infer that it will continue with the same trend. If we look at the structure of the pair, we can count 5 swings down from the year 1970, so we would need at least 2 more swings to complete a great cycle that could last more than 60 years in total. We are currently in swing number 6 which it is very likely that has not finished yet, this is because a correction of this type should look at least a 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the last swings, that means swing 6, which in this case has not yet finished.



source: fxtop.com

Elliott Wave Structure No. 1 on USDCHF​

In the monthly chart of USDCHF that we see below, we have a probable developing structure of Elliott waves to complete swing 6 that we discussed earlier. The structure we see is a double correction WXY. For more information on Elliott structure visit this link: Elliott Waves Theory. The first part is an ABC correction that we call W that ended at the beginning of 2015. Then we have a correction of all that movement, which we call X, precisely the result of the intervention of the Swiss Bank. Then we started a new corrective structure in 3 ABC waves which we will call Y . We are currently in B which should typically be looking for the 0.83 - 0.87 area and then bounce back and end swing number 6 with a rally close to the 1.13 level.

Elliott Wave Structure No. 2 on USDCHF​

In the second monthly chart of the USDCHF, we see the same WXY structure where the depth of the correction varies. This Elliott structure could take USDCHF to levels close to 1.26. The difference here is that the W wave is longer in time. Where wave A is a Leading Diagonal, wave B is an irregular flat correction and wave C is a Ending Diagonal to complete W at the end of 2016. This means that we are recently running the connector X which should reach, like the previous case, to the 0.83 - 0.87 zone and give a rebound. Here the rally would be made up of 3 more waves to complete Y and not just one wave. And this structure could reach levels as high as 1.26.



Of course, this is in theory because hence the corrective structures of Elliott waves are diverse and we can have many variations before ending swing 6. The important thing is to have the long-term direction of the pair.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

$QQQ Long Term Elliott Wave & Cycles

Firstly the QQQ instrument inception date was in March 1999. That was before it ended a larger cycle up from the all time lows in March 2000. The ETF instrument mirrors the price movement of the Nasdaq which did that. As shown below from the March 2000 highs the instrument experienced a steep correction lower in three swings to the October 2002 lows. From there to the October 2007 highs it ended the first of the current series of impulses in the black color ((1)). This makes up the subdivisions of the wave ((5)) of I that ended on in August 2018. The correction of the cycle up from the October 2002 lows ended wave II in December 2018. The pullback into the December 2018 lows was strong. It suggested it had corrected the whole cycle from the October 2002 low.

The analysis and commentary continues below the QQQ monthly chart.



Secondly as previously suggested the QQQ instrument mirrors the Nasdaq highs & lows. As known, impulses progress in 5-9 & 13 swings. Corrections against the trend proceed in 3-7 or 11 swings. So far the bounce from the December 2018 lows appears to be three, larger degree five wave impulse sequences into the September 2020 highs at 303.50. This leaves an incomplete sequence higher.

In conclusion the instrument is bullish most immediately while above the 266.97 lows from the 2nd of November in the first degree as well as while it remains above the September 21st lows at 260.11. While above there the instrument should trade higher to a minimum target area of 313.74. While above the 9/21/20 lows it also remains plausible it can reach the wave ((5)) equals wave ((1)) area at 354.12 before it corrects the cycle up from the December 2018 lows.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

We wrote an article on Pan American Silver Corporation ticker: PAAS) in June 28 earlier this year. In this article, we argued the stock has a bullish outlook. We also presented a set of Elliott Wave Charts in various time frames. In this blog, we want to follow up and update the count of the stock.

The recent good news on the virus vaccine and the lack of second fiscal stimulus has contributed to the weakness in precious metals. Consequently, the stock price of PAAS also suffers further setback. However, despite the weakness in precious metals, ultra loose monetary policy by central banks and the expectation of further fiscal stimulus should continue to provide long term support to the precious metals.

PAAS Monthly Elliott Wave Chart​

Monthly chart of PAAS above shows an impulsive rally from wave ((II)). Structure of the rally is proposed to be in a nest, and current wave ((4)) of III pullback should complete soon. If this count is correct, then wave ((4)) should not overlap with wave ((1)) at $26.2, so that will be the floor for the recent weakness.

PAAS Daily Elliott Wave Chart​

Daily Elliott wave chart of PAAS above shows that the stock made a top on August 5 ($40.11) and since then continues to be in correction in wave ((4)). The decline looks to be unfolding as a zigzag structure where wave (A) ended at $29.52 and wave (B) ended at $37.28. Expect the stock to find support at the 100% - 161.8% fibonacci extension of (A)-(B) at $20.1 - $26.7. From this area, the stock should end wave (C) of ((4)) and resume higher or bounce in 3 waves at least.

PAAS 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart​

4 Hour chart of PAAS above shows that wave ((4)) pullback remains in progress and has scope to see further downside to reach 20.1 - 26.7 before buyers appear. The decline in the stock therefore is close to completion and it can soon resume the next leg higher or rally in larger 3 waves at least.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Deutsche Telekom AG is a German telecommunications company and by revenue the largest telecommunications provider in Europe. Formed in 1995 and headquartered in Bonn, Germany, the company operates several subsidiaries worldwide. Deutsche Telekom is a part of both DAX30 and of SX5E indices. Even though the stock is highly appreciated by investors, the stock price has seen better times. As a matter of fact, it has not recovered after a strong decline from the all-time highs in 2000 at 104.90.

Now, a closer look on the price action of the stock provides insights on the further development. Indeed, from 2012 lows one can observe a long base forming. Consequently, a breakout higher can happen soon.

Deutsche Telekom Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 11.24.2020​

The monthly chart below shows the Deutsche Telekom stock $DTE traded at XETRA. From the all-time lows, the stock price has developed a cycle higher in black wave ((I)) of grand super cycle degree towards the all-time highs on March 2000 at 104.90. From the highs, a correction lower in black wave ((II)) has unfolded as an Elliott wave zigzag pattern. It has printed an important bottom on June 2012 at 7.69.

From June 2012 lows, a new cycle in wave ((III)) has already started and should extend towards 104.90 highs and even higher.

Deutsche Telekom Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 11.24.2020​

The weekly chart below shows in more detail the first stages of the advance higher in wave ((III)). From the June 2012 lows at 7.69, red wave I has developed an impulse higher towards May 2017 highs at 18.15. Within wave I, there are 5 black subwaves ((1))-((5)). These in turn subdivide similarly into 5 blue waves (1)-(5).

From the May 2017 highs, a double correction lower in wave II has ended in March 2020 at 10.40 lows. The price has literally bounced higher in an impulsive move out of the 11.32-10.03 equal legs extension area. From the March 2020 lows, waves ((1)) and ((2)) of a new cycle higher in red wave III have ended. Currently, we see an extension higher in wave ((3)) of III. Breaking above 18.15 highs will confirm that view.

Without any doubt, current stock price at around 15 Euro does possess a high attractivity for investors. While above 10.40 lows, the red wave III can see 20.85-27.32 area and higher. In a long run, investors can anticipate Deutsche Telekom to break to new all-time highs above 104.90.