Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave View of Oil (CL) suggests the cycle from August 26 high has ended as wave II. The correction unfolded as double three Elliott Wave Structure. Down from August 26 high, wave ((W)) ended at 40.22 low. The bounce in wave ((X)) ended at 41.87 high. Afterwards, the commodity resumed lower and ended wave ((Y)) at 36.21 low. This ended wave II pullback in the higher degree. Since then, the commodity has resumed the rally higher.

Up from wave II low, wave 1 ended at 38.45 high. Wave 2 dip unfolded as zigzag correction and ended at 36.67 low. Currently, wave 3 higher is in progress. The subdivision of wave 3 is unfolding as 5 waves impulse structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 37.82 high and wave ((ii)) dip ended at 36.82 low. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 40.34 high. Afterwards, pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 39.51 low. Oil can push for another high before ending wave 3 and followed by a pullback in wave 4 later. As long as 36.21 low stays intact, expect the dips in 3,7 or 11 swings to find support. However, oil still needs to break above August 26 high at 43.78 to confirm that next leg higher in wave III has already started. Otherwise, wave II could still unfold as a double correction before upside resume again.

Oil (CL) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Cloud computing is one of the sectors that have vastly outperformed the marketplace since the March 2020 low. NetEase Inc is in the cloud computing business, focused on community, communications, commerce and video games. Lets take a more detailed look at their operations:

“NetEase, Inc. is a Chinese Internet technology company providing online services centered on content, community, communications and commerce. The company was founded in 1997 by Ding Lei. NetEase develops and operates online PC and mobile games, advertising services, email services and e-commerce platforms in China. It is one of the largest Internet and video game companies in the world. The company also owns several pig farms.

Some of NetEase's games include the Westward Journey series (Fantasy Westward Journey, Westward Journey Online II, Fantasy Westward Journey II, and New Westward Journey Online II), as well as other games, such as Tianxia III, Heroes of Tang Dynasty Zero and Ghost II. NetEase also partners with Blizzard Entertainment to operate local versions of Warcraft III, World of Warcraft, Hearthstone, StarCraft II, Diablo III: Reaper of Souls, Overwatch in China, the RPG game Onmyoji, and the Onmyoji Arena MOBA. They are also developing their first self-developed VR multiplayer online game with an open world setting, which is called Nostos."

NetEase is counting clean off the March 2020 all time low low, lets take a look at the 4H chart below.

NetEase Weekly Elliott Wave View:

On a Weekly Time Frame. From the all time lows, NetEase has a great looking structure that favours further extension higher in the future. There is a clear 5 waves structure leading into the 2017 high labeled Blue (I). This high was struck at 377.62 in December 2017. After that, a multi month correction took place for blue (II). That low was struck at 183.90 in September of 2018. From there NetEase formed a series of nesting ((1))-((2)) and Red 1-2, leading into the recent peak. Lets zoom in a bit and take a look at the daily chart from those Blue (II) lows.

NetEase Daily Elliott Wave View:


On a daily view, NetEase shows a series of nests with Black ((1)) and ((2)) set, and Red 1 and 2 set. Red 2 bottomed at the March 2020 low. After that, Red 3 has formed an impulse into the recent peak that was seen on August 24th, at 517.65. Currently, prices are favoured to be pulling back in Red 4, which is presently favoured as a buying opportunity. There is a blue box extreme area where buyers may show up for a bounce in 3 waves at least in Red 4. This runs from 418.46 to 380.04. There is an incomplete bullish sequence to the upside, which favours more upside in the future.

In conclusion, Red 3 is favoured to be set, with Red 4 ongoing. The blue box price area may change if NetEase manages to get a bigger bounce before moving down. But for now, that blue box remains the area where buyers may show up for a bounce in 3 waves at least.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Towards the end of August 2020 the GBPNZD pair reversed and has been trending lower since. At EWF we always encourage traders to trade with the trend and not against it. Looking at the 1 Hour chart, GBPNZD was clearly trending lower and was in a correction mode at the start of last week which pushed price higher and was met with bears to push the pair back lower. There were visible signals where possible SELLERS were waiting to get in the market.

In the chart below, a lower low lower high sequence (green) in price confirmed the downside trend and the oscillator below was also moving together with the lower low lower high sequence. A signal for SELLERS was when the correction/pullback higher (pink) started to form a bearish trend continuation divergence pattern (light blue) where price was making a lower high but the oscillator was registering a higher high. A visible bearish market pattern (dark green) was also forming and triggered SELLS at the XA 1.618 where SELLERS started to enter the market. Bearish pattern (green) is invalidated if price breaks above the BC 3.618 so stops would be placed above that level. Another signal to sell the bearish pattern (green) was that price touched and respected the dynamic resistance (black 200MA). Price respecting the moving average was another sign that SELLERS were entering the market. As price reversed lower the oscillator confirmed bearish momentum (blue) and GBPNZD eventually hit the 1:2 RR and 1:3 RR targets. Traders should always have multiple strategies all lined up before entering a trade. When multiple strategies line up it allows a trader to see a clearer trade setup.

GBPNZD 1 Hour Chart September 18.2020



Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

On September 10/2020 AUDJPY registered a temporary top and started to trend lower. When a market is trending it will make higher highs and higher lows in a bullish trend and lower lows lower highs in a bearish trend. Support and Resistance levels/zones are the basics of technical market analysis and traders use these levels/zones to trade breakouts or retests of these levels/zones. At EWF we always encourage traders to trade with the trend and not against it.

The chart below confirms AUDJPY was trending lower making lower lows lower highs with the oscillator moving in unison with the price chart also making lower lows lower highs. SELLERS entered the market when price broke below the support level (black) which pushed the pair lower.

AUDJPY 1 Hour Chart September 18.2020



After SELLERS pushed price lower AUDJPY found a temporary lower low which then the pair started to make a correction pullback higher. The chart below shows the market was signalling SELLERS to watch for more selling opportunities. Bearish divergence pattern (pink) was already showing a higher high on the oscillator while price chart was not, signalling traders to watch a retest of the support level to become a possible resistance level.



Price retests and hits the previous support level where SELLERS get in the market pushing AUDJPY lower. Support becomes resistance and bearish trend continuation divergence pattern (pink) terminates with price making lower highs and oscillator making higher highs signalling more SELLERS have entered the market looking for another round lower. Oscillator confirms bearish momentum and the pair eventually hits the 1:2 RR Target. When trading a trend sequence hard stops should be placed above the previous lower high when selling and higher low when buying.



Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

TecDAX is a stock index which tracks the performance of 30 largest German companies from the technology sector. Even though these enterprises are of a high economic importance, their market capitalization and the book order turnover are far below of that of the DAX index. The TecDAX is related to DAX in a similar way like NASDAQ is related to Dow Jones Industrial Average index.

From technical perspective, NASDAQ has been the strongest index in the US. As a matter of fact, it has provided high rewards for those traders who were buying the dips for more upside. One of the features of the market behavior is that weak indices remain weak and strong indices remain strong. The fact that NASDAQ has been outpacing other US indices makes it a good candidate to buy it again once the indices turn higher again. Similar strong uptrend can be also seen in a behavior of TecDAX. This index, therefore, allows entering the German technology sector by providing investors and traders with high returns and protecting them, at the same time, from the defaults originating from trading of single stocks.

TecDAX Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 09.20.2020
The monthly chart below shows the TecDAX index $TDXP listed at Frankfurt Stock Exchange. From the all-time lows, the index price has developed a cycle higher in wave (I) of a super cycle degree. It has ended in November 2007 at 1060.35. From there, a correction lower in wave (II) has retraced part of the rise by printing a bottom in March 2009 at 387.50.

In 2013, TecDAX was able to make a higher high opening up a bullish sequence. As a matter of fact, it has extended from March 2009 lows far beyond 1.618. Therefore, the cycle higher is an impulse in blue wave (III). It has reached 3051.44 highs in September 2018. From the top, a correction lower has unfolded as an expanded flat which has found its bottom in March 2020 at 2127.05.



TdecDAX Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 09.20.2020
The daily chart below shows in more detail the $TDXP price action from the March lows. The advance is an impulse in red wave I which has ended in June 2020 at 3266.82. While below there, a pullback in wave II may find support in 3, 7 or 11 swings above the 2127.05 lows. So far, the correction unfolds in a manner of a double three pattern which is a 3-3-3 structure. As of right now, the pattern looks incomplete. The price can, therefore, fall lower towards 2807.92-2565.53 area to end the correction in wave II. There, buyers can enter the market for an extension higher in wave III of blue wave (V) to new highs. Alternatively, a bounce in 3 waves at least should happen.

As a consequence, TecDAX should furthermore surprise many investors and traders by pushing higher in another rally. In the same way as NASDAQ in US, expect TecDAX to remain the strongest German index.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the charts of FTSE published in members area of the website. As our members know, FTSE is giving us pull back, correcting the cycle from the March low. The price structure from the June 8th peak is incomplete at the moment. It shows lower low sequences which makes it bearish against the 6298.8 peak. We advised clients to avoid buying the Index at this moment,while favoring short side from the Blue Box. In the charts below, we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave structure and trading setup.

FTSE Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 9.14.2020
Current view suggests The Index is correcting the cycle from the 6298.8 peak. Recovery is having form of Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern that should ideally complete at 6075.33-6203.45 . Correction is incomplete at the moment, we expect another marginal push up to complete 5 waves in (c) leg. However we should be aware that sellers zone is already reached at 6075.33 and turn can happen any moment . At the Blue Box area we expect sellers to appear for decline toward new lows or 3 waves pull back at least. Invalidation of the sell trade would be break above 1.618 fib extension: 6203.45. Once the price reaches 50 fibs against the (b) blue low, we should make short positions risk free.As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce.

You can learn more about Elliott Wave Zig Zag Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.



FTSE Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 9.14.2020
Eventually FTSE gave us another leg up within blue box as expected and complete 5 waves in (c) blue leg. It found sellers right at the blue box area : 6075.33-6203.45 and gave us nice decline from there . At this stage we see wave ((b))) recovery completed at the 6125.8 peak. However it needs to make break of 09/04 low to confirm next leg down is in progress. Members who sold the index are enjoying profits in risk free positions .

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



Elliott Wave Forecast

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave View of S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) suggests the Index ended the cycle from June 15 low as wave ((3)) at 3587 high. From there, Index has extended lower to correct that cycle. The correction is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave Structure. Down from wave ((3)) high, wave W ended at 3347.75 low. Wave X bounce ended at 3453.25 high. Index then resumed lower in wave Y, which ended at 3295.50 low. This also ended wave (W) in higher degree. Afterwards, Index bounced higher in wave (X). The subdivision unfolded as a flat correction, where wave A ended at 3424.25 high and wave B ended at 3298.25 low. The rally higher in wave C ended at 3419.21 high, which also ended wave (X) in the higher degree.

Since then, Index has resumed lower in wave W, which ended at 3217.75 low. The decline broke below previous wave (W) low, confirming that next leg lower in wave (Y) has already started. Currently, Index is doing a bounce in wave X, which will be followed by push lower in wave Y to end wave (Y) in higher degree. While below 3419.21 high, bounce in 3,7 or 11 swings is expected to fail for more downside. The 100-161.8% extension area of wave (W)-(X) where wave (Y) can potentially end is at 2945.50-3126.66. If reached, that area should see buyers appear to resume the rally or 3 waves bounce at least.

ES 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave View of Silver (XAG) suggests the cycle from September 1 high has ended as wave (1) at 25.82 low. From there, the metal bounce higher in wave (2). The correction unfolded as zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. Up from wave (1) low, wave A ended at 27.48 high. The dip in wave B ended at 26.54 low. Afterwards, the metal resumed higher and ended wave C at 27.60 high. This ended wave (2) in the higher degree. Since then, the commodity has resumed the decline lower.

Down from wave (2) high, wave 1 ended at 26.26 low. The subdivision of wave 1 unfolded as 5 waves impulse structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 26.98 low and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 27.43 high. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 26.69 low and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 26.94 high. The push lower in wave ((v)) ended at 26.26 low. The metal then bounced higher in wave 2, which ended at 27.22 high. Afterwards, the metal resumed lower in wave 3, which ended at 23.67 low. The bounce in wave 4 ended at 25.24 high. Currently, wave 5 is in progress. As long as 27.60 stays intact, expect the bounces in 3,7 or 11 swings to fail for more downside. The 100 - 161.8% extension from August 7 high is at 18.36 - 22.39 area. If reached, that area can see support for 3 waves bounce at least.

Silver (XAG) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

As of 22 September, Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) is up 6.9% despite the geopolitical tension with the US and coronavirus pandemic. Contrast this with S&P 500 which has YTD performance of 2.1%. Part of the reasons for the resilience is due to Chinese economy relatively speedy recovery from the pandemic. After the initial breakout in Wuhan, Chinese government took a draconian lockdown which successfully contained the virus. Although occasional breakout still happens, China's effort in containing the coronavirus is pretty successful compared to some western countries.

China GDP comparison


Compared to other countries, Chinese economy and business activity recover and restart faster. Refinitiv data shows Chinese firms would see a net income profit growth of 6% this year compared to the average 20% decline in global companies' earnngs.

Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) Long Term Elliott Wave Chart


A long term outlook in Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) shows that the Index still remains in multi year triangle consolidation. We believe the consolidation most likely should resolve to the upside. However, due to the size of the triangle, the Index can easily continue to consolidate in the next few years. Shorter cycle, the Index can retest the upper line of the triangle around CNY 4400 in the next few months before pulling back again.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

This week we witnessed a sharp decline in Nikkei followed by an equally sharp rally. Our weekend update informed members that a decline was expected to unfold this week followed by a reaction higher, we even showed them the area where we expected the decline to end and reaction higher to take place. In this article, we will look at the weekend chart of Nikkei and how the market reacted after reaching the target area.

Nikkei 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 9.19.2020 [Weekend Update]
Chart below shows Nikkei completed wave ((3)) at 23630 on September 2, 2020 and started the pull back in wave ((4)). It dropped in 3 waves to 22840 on September 4, 2020 which we labelled as wave (W) followed by a double there correction higher to 23510 on September 14, 2020 which we labelled as wave (X). Based on the fact that it made a new low below 22840 as part of wave (X) correction and based in market correlation with other World Indices, we expected it to continue lower in a double three Elliott wave correction toward 22700 - 22193 which is 100 - 1.618 Fib extension area of wave (W) related to wave (X). We highlighted this area with a blue box because blue boxes are high-frequency areas which are based in a relationship of sequences, cycles and calculated using extensions. In these blue boxes, both buyers and sellers again in direction of next move for 3 swings at least and hence why we also call them no enemy areas. Chart below shows Index already started trading lower in proposed wave (Y) and was expected to extend the decline this week before turning higher again from the blue box area to resume the rally or produce a bounce in 3 waves at least.



Nikkei 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 9.23.2020 [Latest Update]
This is the latest chart from today (September 23,2020). It showed Index did extend the decline and reached the blue box area, it found a low at 22515 and started rallying. Rally appears to be unfolding as an impulse but another short-term high is still required to complete the impulse. While below the peak at 23630, larger double three correction lower still can't be ruled out in which the low at 22515 becomes wave (W) and current bounce becomes wave (X). However, knowing the blue box area was a bouncing area helped our members to plan their trades accordingly and any buyers which entered in the blue box should now already be risk free.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave View of Pound Sterling (GBPUSD) suggests the cycle from September 1 high remains incomplete. The decline from there is unfolding as zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. Down from September 1, wave (A) ended at 1.2761 and wave (B) ended at 1.3007. Internal of wave (B) unfolded as a double zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave W ended at 1.2919, wave X ended at 1.2813, and wave Y of (B) ended at 1.3007

Pair has resumed lower and broken below wave (A) low suggesting the next leg lower in wave (C) has started. Wave (C) lower is currently in progress as an impulsive 5 waves. Down from wave (B), wave ((i)) ended at 1.2863, and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 1.3. Pair then resumed lower in wave ((iii)) towards 1.2773, and wave ((4)) ended at 1.2824. The final leg lower in wave ((v)) ended at 1.2711. This move also ended wave 1 in higher degree. Wave 2 bounce has also ended at 1.2866 and pair has resumed lower in wave 3. Down from 1.2866, wave ((i)) ended at 1.2674, and wave ((ii)) ended at 1.2777. Near term, while bounce stays below 1.2866, expect pair to extend lower. Potential target lower is 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension of (A)-(B) at 1.211 - 1.222. Alternatively, wave 1 can end at 1.2674, and pair now can be in wave 2 rally to correct cycle from Wave (B) high on September 16 in larger 3, 7, or 11 swing before turning lower again.

Pound Sterling (GBPUSD) 30 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we are always looking for an edge to get clues about the next market move and hence be able to better anticipate the next market move. We look at a number of instruments from around the World to get a more complete and correlated forecast as we do believe in the concept of one-market. Today, we will be taking a look at the long-term Elliott Wave Forecast for Southwest Airlines Co.

Southwest Airlines (LUV) Grand Super Cycle
Chart below shows Elliott Wave Grand Super Cycle in Southwest Airlines (LUV) within which wave (I) completed at $23.33 back in 2000. Wave (II) completed at $4.95 in 2009, this was followed by wave (III) which completed at $51.34 in 2015, wave (IV) completed at $33.96 in 2016 and wave (V) completed at $61.51 in 2017 to complete Grand Super Cycle wave ((a)). Elliott wave theory suggest after a 5 waves move up, there should be a pull back in 3 waves which is what happened. Within the pull back, wave (a) completed at$44.28, wave (b) completed at $58.77 which was followed by a sharp decline from February 2020 high to March 2020 which we expected to complete between $35.86 - $21.67. It eventually found a low at $22.47 and it turned higher again. It can still make another low in wave V of (c) but there is an incomplete sequence from the low at $22.47 low so it could continue higher. We will take a look at the sequence in the next chart.



Elliott Wave Impulse
Graphic showing an impulse wave when each wave of the impulse further sub divides in 5 waves.


Extensions in wave 1, 3 and 5


LUV Sequence from 5.14.2020 low
In the chart below, we can see a cycle from 05.14.2020 low to 06.4.2020 high followed by a pull back to 07.31.2020 low. Since then, we have seen a new high above 06.04.2020 low which creates an incomplete bullish sequence from 05.14.2020 against 07.31.2020 low and thus while above 07.31.2020 low and as the trend line holds, ideally we should see extension higher toward $49.59 - $61.72 area at least. Alternate view would be that it drops in 5 waves from 09.16.2020 peak and becomes a FLAT from 06.04.2020 peak before turning higher again. Stock seems to be close to a take off while dips hold above 07.31.2020 low. Even if a FLAT from 06.14.2020 high takes place or even if another low below 05.14.2020 low is seen, stock still remains bullish and is in a good area for investors.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Another Cloud cloud computing name that has vastly outperformed the market since March 2020 low, is none other than OKTA. This name has been a solid performer since the IPO, and remains favoured to extend higher in its bull trend in the long term. Lets take a look at what the company does:

“Okta, Inc. is an identity and access management company based in San Francisco. It provides cloud software that helps companies manage and secure user authentication into modern applications, and for developers to build identity controls into applications, website web services and devices. It was founded in 2009 and had its initial public offering in 2017, being valued at over $6 billion.

Okta sells six services, including a single sign-on solution that allows users to log into a variety of systems using one centralized process. For example, the company claims the ability to log into Gmail, Workday, Salesforce and Slack with one login. Okta's services are built on top of the Amazon Web Services cloud."

There is nothing to dislike about the OKTA chart, in fact it has had a steady uptrend since the IPO. Lets take a more in depth look at the daily view below.

OKTA Daily Elliott wave View:




On a daily Time Frame. From the all time lows, OKTA features a clear 5 waves structure in the Red I Feb 2020 peak. From there a red II low has taken place along with many other instruments in the market place. There are certain companies that have outer performed off the March 2020 low. Those are the ones that are best focused on for long term gains. From an elliottwave standpoint, this chart has a beautiful structure that favours further gains in the future. In the long term, as long as the 88.66 low remains intact, further upside is likely to take place. OKTA is favoured to have completed a 5 waves impulse from the March 2020 low, and corrected in a nesting wave ((2)).

OKTA 4H Elliott Wave View:


On a 4H view, from the Red II Low, 5 waves impulse is complete for Black ((1)) on July 9/2020 at 224.90 . After that impulse took place, the price structure has been largely sideways and choppy. The Black ((2)) correction has taken shape in an expanded flat correction. As long as the recent low at ((2)), 185.05, remains intact, we can expect this instrument to continue upside extension. If that level gets invalidated, it could be favoured that ((2)) correction is still underway, but the view would remain bullish in the long term.

In conclusion, black ((2)) is favoured to be set as long as those 185.05 lows remain intact. Ultimately, while above the Red II low 88.66, we remain bullish and favour further upside to take place.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

$IBM Long Term Bullish Cycle and Elliott Wave Pullback

Firstly I would like to mention Big Blue has been around for over 100 years since it was founded. I have price data that goes back to the 1960’s when the stock price was around three dollars. The point of this article is to show what Elliott Wave technical analysis suggests will happen before the stock price resumes the larger uptrend.

Secondly from the early beginnings of the company up to the March 2013 highs was simply a series of higher highs and higher lows. The weekly chart shown below is where this wave analysis begins. This decline appears to be a zig zag Elliott wave corrective structure. These structures subdivide into what wave analysts call a 5-3-5 structure. This means the first cycle ((A)) lower from the March 2013 highs to the February 2016 lows was a five wave impulse. This impulse had some overlap in between the wave (1) and wave (4). Thus it would be considered a diagonal. The bounce in the ((B)) wave connector subdivides into three corrective swings.

The analysis continues below the weekly chart.

IBM Weekly Chart



Thirdly from the February 2017 ((B)) highs price has declined in two smaller degree blue (1) & (3) impulse waves. By all means, this is an incomplete larger degree black ((C)) impulse. The wave (4) in blue correcting the cycle lower from the wave (2) highs had overlap as did the previous impulse wave ((A)) diagonal.

In conclusion as earlier mentioned the sequence lower from February 2017 appears incomplete. Although possible it will only pull back to correct the cycle from the March 2020 lows: It appears it should see another low under the March 2020 lows in the impulse ((C)) to finish the zig zag structure. Highlighted on the chart is an ideal area price can reach before resuming the larger uptrend.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

On September 16 2020 I posted on social media Stocktwits/Twitter @AidanFX "GBPUSD Watch for selling opportunities as long price stays below 1.3060." The chart below of the GBPUSD pair was also posted on social media StockTwits/Twitter @AidanFX September 16 2020 showing that a bearish market pattern (light blue) formed and triggered SELLS at the 0.886% Fib. retracement level. The bearish pattern (light blue) also triggered SELLS in a key resistance zone (pink) which was clearly visible and signalled to traders to look for only selling opportunities. I called for traders to SELL GBPUSD and only a move above the pink resistance zone would invalidate the SELL trade setup. Stop loss was set above this zone targeting the green 1:1 RR and 1:2 RR targets.

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart September 16 2020



GBPUSD eventually moves lower and on September 23 2020 price hits the 1:3 RR target at 1.2703 from 1.29973 for +270 pips. The chart below also displays bearish divergence patterns before the decline and during the move lower. If you followed me on Twitter/Stocktwits @AidanFX you too could have caught the GBPUSD move lower.

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart September 23 2020



Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

On September 17 2020 I posted on social media Stocktwits/Twitter @AidanFX "USDCAD Will be looking for BUYS as long price stays above 1.3126." The chart below was also posted September 17 2020 showing that bullish market patterns were visible calling for a move higher. Bullish Pattern (grey) triggered BUYS with a combination of a bullish divergence pattern formation (light green) and a key support/resistance level (black). This triple bullish confirmation allowed me to call the move higher and advise traders that the pair would push higher.

USDCAD 4 Hour Chart September 17 2020



Shifting to the 1 hour chart below, USDCAD was already signalling bulls that the support/resistance (black) was a key level where price can bounce higher from. There was a couple of previous bullish patterns that also triggered BUYS near the support level. By using the support level as a key area to look for buys the final bullish pattern was easier to spot which triggered buyers at the XA 0.886% Fib. retracement level.

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart September 18 2020



USDCAD eventually rallied higher and hit the 1:5 RR BUY target at 1.3402 from 1.3152 for +250 pips. A trader should always use multiple time frame charts to look for possible trade entries and always use multiple trading strategies to confirm the trade. If you followed me on Twitter/Stocktwits @AidanFX you too could have caught the USDCAD move higher.

USDCAD 4 Hour Chart September 24 2020



Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

BNP Paribas is a French international banking group being within 10 largest banks in the world. Headquartered in Paris, it is a merger of Banque Nationale de Paris (BNP) and Paribas. BNP Paribas is a part of Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) and CAC40 indices. Investors can trade it under the ticker $BNP at Euronext Paris and under $BNPQY in US in form of ADRs. The group is engaged in retail banking serving more than 30 millions of customers and investment banking operations. BNP Paribas is present on five continents operating in 72 countries.

However, similar to other major European banking stocks like Deutsche Bank and Santander, BNP Paribas stock is showing weakness to sideways price action. Hereby, one can see the stock in a sort of a nesting action. In such kind of development, a broad basis in price can serve as a trampoline leading to an impulsive breakout. The years 2020-2021 should confirm if this expectation is correct.

BNP Paribas Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 09.26.2020
The monthly chart below shows the BNP Paribas stock $BNP traded at Euronext Paris. From the all-time lows, the stock price is showing an Elliott wave motive wave pattern. The cycle up in blue wave (I) of super cycle degree has ended by printing its top on May 2007 at 92.39. After 5 waves higher in (I), the correction in wave (II) has ended on January 2009 at 20.08.

From the 2009 lows at 20.08, $BNP has developed a leading diagonal pattern higher towards 69.21 level in red wave I. Within that cycle, one can see 5 overlapping subwaves of primary degree. After 5 waves, subsequently, a deep correction in wave II has found a bottom in April 2020 at 24.50.



BNP Paribas Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 09.26.2020
The end of the correction in wave II and the turning up action in wave ((1)) of III from the April 2020 lows is shown in more detail in the daily chart below. The rally towards June highs at 40.67 is most likely a 3 waves move. Unless, a larger correction is still in progress, the price development can take the form of a leading diagonal. Within this scenario, the rally from April to June 2020 was the wave (1). The pullback in wave (2) in 3 waves unfolding as an Elliott Wave double three pattern, i.e., a 3-3-3 structure, should find support from 31.99-27.23 area. From there, an advance in wave (3) should break above June highs at 40.67. Ultimatively, expect 5 waves to end the wave ((1)). Then, a pullback in wave ((2)) and an extension higher in wave ((3)) of III should happen.

Therefore, medium-term traders may use 31.99-27.23 area to enter the market for a rally towards 40.67 and higher in wave (3) of ((1)). Long-term traders can do the same, expecting wave III to reach 73.51-103.85 and higher.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliott Wave chart of Wheat Futures (ZW_F). The 4 hour chart update from September 9 shows that wheat has ended the cycle from August 12 low as wave 3 at 568.4 high. A 3 waves pullback in wave 4 is expected to unfold before the commodity can continue to resume higher in wave 5 to end the cycle from June 27 low. Wave 4 pullback then unfolded as a zigzag correction. Down from wave 3 high, wave ((a)) ended at 541.4 low. The bounce in wave ((b)) ended at 556.6 high. The commodity then declined lower in wave ((c)). The 100-161.8% extension of wave ((a))-((b)) where ((c)) can potentially end is at 513-530 area, where if reached could see 3 waves bounce at least from there.

Wheat 9.14.2020 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


The 4 hour chart update from September 26 shows that wheat ended wave 4 pullback at 533.2 low. The correction truncated and did not reach the equal leg of ((a))-((b)) as expected. However, the commodity resumed the rally higher after that zigzag correction. The rally higher in wave 5 then ended at 578.2 high. This also ended the cycle from June 27 low. Currently, wheat can correct that cycle in 3,7 or 11 swings. This would be followed by another leg higher at least later. As long as the low at 469.4 stays intact, expect dips in 3,7 or 11 swings to find support for more upside later.

Wheat 9.26.2020 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the charts of Hang Seng published in members area of the website. As our members know, Hang Seng has given us a decent pull back recently. We got decline within the cycle from the July 6th peak ,when the price reached extremes at 23170-22552 as were expecting. . In the charts below, we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave structure.

Hang Seng Elliott Wave 4 Hour Chart 9.16.2020
Current view suggests The Index is correcting the cycle from the 05/28 low. Pull back is having form of Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern that has scope to extend down toward 23170-22552 area , which (W)-(X) blue equal legs . Correction is incomplete at the moment. So far we got 5 swings , consequently we are expecting another leg down to complete 7 swing down from the 07/06 peak.



Let's take a look at H1 charts to see what short term price structure looks like.

Hang Seng Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 9.16.2020
The index has given us short term recovery against the 25847 peak, marked as B red. At this stage we see B red completed at the 24833 high as Elliott Wave Flat pattern. As far as the price stays below current short term high, we believe next leg down is taking place. However we need to see break of A red ( 09/09 ) low in order to confirm next leg down is in progress toward 23170-22552 area.

You can learn more about Elliott Wave Flat and Double Three Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.



Hang Seng Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 9.22.2020
Wave B red peak held nicely during short term bounces. Eventually Hang Seng made further separation from the 24833 high and broke toward new lows. Hang Seng is now bearish against the 24833.9 peak in first degree. We got confirmation 7th swing is in progress toward 23170-22552 area.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



Elliott Wave Forecast

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Wave 3 is the most powerful wave in an Elliott Wave Structure. In this article, we will be looking at an opportunity to catch wave 3 in Silver Miners ETF and also look at Silver and Gold charts to further support the view. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) provides investors access to a broad range of silver mining companies. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Solactive Global Silver Miners Total Return Index. Let's take a look at the Monthly chart of Silver Miners ETFs.

SIL Silver Miners ETF Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis
Chart below shows SIL Silver Miners ETF completed wave ((a)) at 94.03 back in 2011. It is worth noting that this is when Gold and Silver also saw a peak back in 2011. This was followed by a 3 waves pull back to 14.94 in 2016. Then SIL ETF rallied as an impulse to 54.34 ending in August 2016, following this it saw a 3 waves pull back to 16.00 in March 2020 before it started rallying again. It rallied to 52.87 ending in August 2020, now the cycle from March 2020 low is over and SIL ETF is in a pull back right now. There are 3 types of extensions in an impulse structure, extension can either take place in wave 1, wave 3 or wave 5. When the extension takes place (image shown below) in wave 3, the chart looks like what Silver Miners SIL ETF chart looks at the moment.



5 Waves Elliott Wave Impulse

3 Types of Extensions in an Impulse Wave

XAGUSD (Silver) Long-term Cycles
It is worth noting that peak in Silver was the same as in Silver Miners ETF (SIL) and wave ( II) low in SIL was the secondary low in Silver in March 2020. It is evident that Silver will not trade below zero line as no one would pay you to get Silver from there which supports the view that correction of the Grand Super cycle in Silver ended in March 2020. Moreover, Gold has already broken above 2011 peak and has an incomplete bullish sequence suggesting Silver will also be looking for a break of 2011 peak and if that happens, Silver Miners ETF should follow so the current pull back is a good opportunity for buyers to look for an entry to catch a possible wave III.