Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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Gold trades near 1,250 level

XAUUSD ASK 1H since 2052 2017-06-16 to 1857 2017-06-23.png

The yellow metal has revealed a short term ascending channel pattern. The pattern could be drawn only after the fluctuations of Thursday’s trading session showed, where the reference points of the pattern’s trend lines are located at. However, during Friday’s trading session the borders of the channel most likely will not play a significant role. The 200-hour SMA is set to be of more importance, as the pair had once more reached above the monthly PP at 1,253 while the mentioned SMA was preparing to provide resistance at 1,255.40. It is highly likely that the SMA will push the pair into a combined support of the monthly PP and the lower trend line of the short term junior pattern.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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EUR/USD reveals new pattern
EURUSD ASK 1H since 1440 2017-06-15 to 2210 2017-06-23.png
The EUR/USD currency exchange rate did not bounce off the resistance of the 200-hour SMA, as it was forecasted on Thursday. However, the pair began a decline without the help of the resistance level. Moreover, by the end of the day’s trading session the surge of the Euro against the US Dollar was resumed. Due to that reason a more in-depth analysis was done. As a result of the closer look, a short term ascending channel pattern was mapped. Although in accordance with the channel the pair should surge at least to the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1188 mark, it is highly possible that the 200-hour SMA, which on Friday was located at the 1.1176 level, will force the currency pair to change its direction sooner than expected.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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GBP/USD points to weakness
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 1540 2017-06-15 to 2310 2017-06-23.png
During the last trading session, the Sterling demonstrated solid appreciation against the US Dollar, crossing the 20– and 100-hour SMAS along the way. The pair has approached a short-term down-trend near the 1.2710 mark, reinforced by the 200-hour SMA and the 23.6% Fibo at 1.2717 and 1.2720, respectively. The pair has been trading below the given SMA for most of the down-trend, suggesting that this may serve as a stopping point in this session, as well. Technical indicators are generally bearish, demonstrating that the down-trend may, in turn, be respected. Thus, it is likely that the Pound tests the 1.2717 level prior to edging lower mid-day. The subsequent fall might be stopped by the 55-day SMA located circa 1.2660. On the contrary, an upward breakout would put the monthly S1 at 1.2758 to the test.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
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72
USD/JPY tests channel boundary once more
USDJPY ASK 1H since 1530 2017-06-15 to 2300 2017-06-23.png
Despite being pressured to the downside early Thursday, USD/JPY made a U-turn and moved closer the upper channel boundary. The given level, however, was not reached, allowing some room for further appreciation up to 111.42. Yesterday’s trading session resulted in a death cross of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, thus flashing bearish signals. Other technical indicators likewise support a possible fall down to the 111.05/10 territory. As no significant fundamental events are scheduled for today, the pair may continue its movement sideways, setting the aforementioned 111.42 and 111.05 as a possible trading range. In case of strong upward risks, the US Dollar should cap at the 111.80 mark where the monthly PP is located.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Gold trades near 1,250 level
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 1540 2017-06-15 to 2310 2017-06-23.png
The yellow metal has revealed a short term ascending channel pattern. The pattern could be drawn only after the fluctuations of Thursday’s trading session showed, where the reference points of the pattern’s trend lines are located at. However, during Friday’s trading session the borders of the channel most likely will not play a significant role. The 200-hour SMA is set to be of more importance, as the pair had once more reached above the monthly PP at 1,253 while the mentioned SMA was preparing to provide resistance at 1,255.40. It is highly likely that the SMA will push the pair into a combined support of the monthly PP and the lower trend line of the short term junior pattern.

gbp.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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72
EUR/USD squeezed in on Monday
EURUSD ASK 1H since 0800 2017-06-20 to 0137 2017-06-27.png
As the title states, the common European currency is trading in a set range against the US Dollar on Monday morning. The pair was fluctuating between the support of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1188 level and the fresh first weekly resistance at the 1.1204 mark. Meanwhile, the pair is showing contradicting signals regarding its future direction. In a long term a decline of the Euro against the Buck is still expected. In regards to the short term, the pair is still trading in the borders of an ascending channel pattern. However, the upper trend line of the channel up pattern has recently been confirmed, which means that in the next 24 hours a decline of the pair might occur. The rate could fall down to the 1.1161 level. Although, there are various support levels, which could hinder the decline.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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72
GBP/USD tests monthly S1 at 1.2758
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 0352 2017-06-20 to 2130 2017-06-26.png
Despite being tied down by bearish technical indicators, GBP/USD managed to push through a descending trend-line and the 200-hour SMA. The combined support of the given SMA and the 23.6% Fibo did provide strong support for the Pound, restricting its move below the 1.2720 mark. During the first hours of this session, the pair has demonstrated reluctance to move above the monthly S1; however, indicators suggest that there is still some upside potential. The pair has been trading in a channel down for the last two weeks and has approached the upper channel boundary. Thus, it may be hindered or even reversed by the 38.2% Fibo at 1.2770. Meanwhile, the US is to release m/m durable goods orders at 1230 GMT that may provide downward pressure on the pair.
 

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY demonstrates potential up to 111.80
USDJPY ASK 1H since 0430 2017-06-20 to 2207 2017-06-26.png
On Friday, a lack of strong market movers put USD/JPY in a small trading range in the 111.20/40 area. The pair was stopped several times by the 20– and 55-hour SMAs, restraining a move above the 111.30 mark. In this session, however, the US Dollar passed the both SMAs to test the upper channel boundary. It is likely that the American currency breaks the given line and appreciates against the Yen, as the sideways momentum demonstrates mitigated downside risks. By and large, upside potential may be realised up to the monthly PP at 111.80. The downside limit may be provided by a support cluster formed by the 55– and 200-day SMAs apparent on the daily chart circa 111.00. Meanwhile, the US is to release m/m durable goods orders at 1230 GMT that may provide upside pressure on the pair.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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72
Gold continues in set pattern
XAUUSD ASK 1H since 0710 2017-06-16 to 1956 2017-06-26.png
The yellow metal lost ground on Monday morning. However, the commodity price remained in the ascending channel pattern, which is guiding the rebound from the support of a long term pattern. The Monday morning decline of the bullion was a bounce off from the channel up pattern’s resistance line. It is most likely that during the day the yellow metal will find support either in the 55 and 200-hour SMAs, respectively, at 1,253.57 and 1,254.29 and/or in the monthly PP, which is located at the 1,253 mark. A rebound against the pivot point would be consistent with the channel up pattern. Afterwards the next target for the commodity would be the 1,264 mark, where the weekly R1 is located at. Moreover, it has to be noted that the monthly PP is also supported by the weekly pivot point at 1,252.57.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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72
EUR/USD continues to surge
EURUSD ASK 1H since 1910 2017-06-19 to 0240 2017-06-28.png
As it was expected the common European currency found support against the US Dollar, and the currency exchange rate continues on its set part higher. Moreover, during Monday’s trading the pair managed to touch the 1.1220 mark. The Euro has set its eyes on the 1.1233 mark against the Buck, as that is the closest support level, which is likely to be reached. At that level the weekly R1 is located at. It is most likely that the 55-hour SMA, which helped the rate in its rebound on Monday, will push the pair higher until it reaches the mentioned resistance level. However, the weekly R1 might not be reached during Tuesday’s trading, as the upper trend line of the short term ascending channel pattern still remains in the way of the pair above the 1.12 mark.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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GBP/USD waits fundamentals
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 0030 2017-06-21 to 1807 2017-06-27.png
On Monday, the expected upside potential up to the 1.2770 mark was halted by the monthly S1 at 1.2758 which intersected with the upper channel line. Subsequently, the price dropped down to the weekly PP at 1.2708 in response to fundamentals, but managed to recover some losses, thus returning above the 200-hour SMA. In this trading session, the Pound crossed the 55-hour SMA from below and continued a minor surge up to 1.2740. Technical indicators remain bullish, thus a continuous surge is likely to occur in the upcoming hours, setting either the aforementioned S1 or the 38.2% Fibo at 1.2770 as possible upside targets. In general, the pair is not expected to fall below the 200-hour SMA. Today, the economic calendar is full of important fundamental events, thus the rate should respond accordingly.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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72
USD/JPY bearish in this trading session
USDJPY ASK 1H since 0215 2017-06-21 to 1952 2017-06-27.png
Strong upside momentum guided USD/JPY for the whole trading session on Monday prior to reversing to the downside early on Tuesday. The US Dollar returned below the monthly PP at 111.80 and is expected to remain there, as bearish technical indicators suggest the prevalence of downside risks. From technical point of view, the pair broke the descending channel patter; thus a retracement down to the 111.30 mark, approximately, is likely to occur. There, the 200-hour SMA should support the rate, thus limiting further depreciation. The 55– and 100-hour SMAs in the 111.35/45 area may likewise halt the pair. The most important fundamentals scheduled for today are data on consumer confidence at 1400 GMT and Fed Yellen’s speech at 1700 GMT.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
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72
Gold recovers after crashing
XAUUSD ASK 1H since 0800 2017-06-20 to 2214 2017-06-27.png
After the sudden crash of the yellow metal, which occurred on Monday, the bullions price was recovering on Tuesday. The yellow metal traded rather flat, as it faced the resistance of the first weekly support level a the 1,246 mark. However, that resistance was broken and the bullion jumped to trade above the 1,250 mark. By looking at the technical aspects of the commodity price on the hourly chart, a prolonged recovery of the metal now seems unlikely. Every ascending chart of the bullion has been broken. Moreover, the metal faces the resistance of the various simple moving averages, the monthly pivot point at 1,253 and the weekly pivot point at 1,252.57. However, if these levels of resistance are broken, the pair might resume the surge.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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72
EUR/USD jumps above 1.13 mark
EURUSD ASK 1H since 1037 2017-06-22 to 0415 2017-06-29.png
Just like recently all the patterns on gold were broken, everything previously created is now irrelevant on the EUR/USD charts. The reason for that are massive fundamental changes in the Euro. During yesterday’s speech the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi made an important announcement. The ECB is set to stop its monetary easing policies, which means that there will be less Euros in circulation. Subsequently that has caused the price of the Euro to skyrocket. The future outlook of the pair is set to be dictated by details of the stimulus cutting. However, some guidance for the short term can be taken from the technical levels. It can be seen that the previously active long term pattern’s upper trend line is now providing support. That and the fundamental situation indicate at a surge.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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0
72
GBP/USD mildly bearish on Wednesday
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 1651 2017-06-21 to 0242 2017-06-29.png
The US Dollar’s continuous weakness resulted in GBP/USD surging up to a three-week high at 1.2828 on Tuesday. Subsequently, the price was not able to overcome the 1.2820 mark and has since traded below the given level. Daily trading indicators signal that there is still some upside potential up to the monthly PP at 1.2903. However, the rate’s minor motion sideways indicates that bears may prevail in this session. In addition, a retracement from the upper channel boundary is still expected. Nevertheless, this scenario might occur only within the following two days if strong downside risks do not set the British currency for a plunge. A more likely lower limit for this session might be the 38.2% Fibo or the monthly S1 at 1.2770 and 1.2758, accordingly.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY might see further upside potential
USDJPY ASK 1H since 0815 2017-06-19 to 1930 2017-06-30.png
Contrary to expectations, USD/JPY was driven by moderate upside momentum that lead to the US Dollar for an appreciation up to 112.40 against the Yen on Tuesday. Subsequently, the pair returned near the 20-hour SMA circa 112.10. By and large, technical indicators suggest further upside potential until the 113.00 mark where an intermediate down-trend on the daily chart is located. In case of strong upside momentum, the rate may likewise test the monthly R1 at 113.36. On the contrary, political uncertainty in the US may weight heavily on the Greenback, thus pushing it down to a support cluster formed by the monthly PP and the 55-hour SMA near 111.80. In terms of fundamentals, BOJ’s Governor Kuroda is due to participate in a panel discussion at the ECB Forum at 1330 GMT.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
XAU/USD remains below 1,250
XAUUSD ASK 1H since 0122 2017-06-22 to 2227 2017-06-28.png
On Wednesday morning the yellow metal continued to trade in the range between the support provided by the weekly S1 at 1,246 and the combined resistance of the weekly PP at 1,252.57 and the monthly PP, which is located at the 1,253 mark. Meanwhile, all of the hourly SMAs are located in the middle of the range between the two mentioned levels of significance. The 55 and 100-hour SMAs seem not able to influence the metal’s price. However, the 200-hour SMA has proven its strength even in reversing the short term direction of the metal’s price. Market participants are set to watch the situation develop, as a break above the 1,250 mark might mean a jump to the 1,260 level. Meanwhile, a fall below the weekly S1, would mark the beginning of a long term decline of the metal.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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72
EUR/USD reaches above 1.14 mark
EURUSD ASK 1H since 0515 2017-06-23 to 2252 2017-06-29.png
On Thursday morning the common European currency scored new heights against the US Dollar, as the currency pair managed to break a strong resistance cluster. The mentioned resistance cluster consists of the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1388 mark and the first monthly resistance at 1.1395. As the cluster was broken, it has begun to provide support to the Euro in its efforts against the Greenback. The currency exchange rate is set to reach new heights soon, as the central banker forum has ended, and technical are once more viable to be used for guidance. From a technical perspective the EUR/USD pair faces no resistance up to the 1.1546 level, where the second monthly resistance level is located at. That means that a range of almost 150 base points is clear.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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0
72
GBP/USD strengthened by Mark Carney
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 1710 2017-06-21 to 0040 2017-06-30.png
On the chart for the GBP/USD currency pair a surprise jump can be observed. The surge of the Pound was caused by comments made by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. The jump propelled the currency exchange rate through the resistance put up by the monthly pivot point at the 1.2903 level. Due to that reason it can be expected that the currency pair will continue the surge. However, the difference in the case of GBP/USD pair is that Mark Carney’s comments have still not been analyzed as much as those of Mario Draghi in regards to the Euro. The results of this factor can be observed on the charts. The GBP/USD pair, since the jump and reaching above the 1.2950 level, has remained rather flat near the 1.2930 mark.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY fails to gain more
USDJPY ASK 1H since 0452 2017-06-23 to 2230 2017-06-29.png
It can be observed that the USD/JPY currency pair did not increase its volatility massively during the panel discussion of the top central bankers. Instead the US Dollar once more attempted to break above the 112.40 mark against the Japanese Yen. For a rather unclear reason that level has been providing resistance in the recent trading sessions. It is possible that the 112.40 mark is a benchmark for the Bank of Japan or a silent player in the form of a large institution, which has enough funds to change the price of the currency pair. However, from a technical perspective the pair is still set to gain more, as the 55-hour SMA is approaching the rate from the downside just above the 112 level.

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