Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[KristinaDC]

Gold reaches targeted support



The yellow metal's price moved in the last 24 hours, as it was forecasted on Thursday morning. The commodity price has reached the combined support of the weekly S1 and the monthly PP. The weekly first support, which is located at the 1,255.79 level, has clearly been passed. However, the monthly PP at the 1,253.00 mark is holding its ground. As it can be observed on the chart, the monthly level of significance has held off a fall of the bullion for nearly 20 hours. Although, if the monthly pivot point gets passed, the commodity price is most likely going to fall to the next level of significance, as the second weekly support is located at the 1,244.60 mark. Meanwhile, while trying to identify a pattern, only slight hints of a descending short term channel can be noticed.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD encounters resistance



The decline of the common European currency against the US Dollar continued on Monday. Although the currency [URL deleted]exchange rate had regained some of its losses in the second half of Friday's trading session, that surge was [URL deleted] short lived, as the currency [URL deleted] exchange [URL deleted] rate encountered the resistance of the 200-hour SMA, which on Monday morning had forced the Euro below the strong support cluster near the 1.1190 mark. Meanwhile, the rate still had the support of the 55-hour SMA at 1.1177. If that support level gets passed, the [URL deleted] currency pair will be set to fall down to the 1.1110 level, where the next notable support cluster begins. However, it is quite possible that the decline will be hindered during today's trading session.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD: a recovery is on the way



The British currency traded flat against the US Dollar on Friday, due to the absence of market movers. Upside volatility was somewhat limited by the 200-hour SMA, but it is unlikely to prevent the Pound from appreciating further, as the pair is trading within the borders of an ascending channel pattern. Although the channel is not fully confirmed yet, the exchange rate is still expected to rebound within the next two days. Technical indicators are mostly in favour of the given scenario, even though today's signals are bearish. A successful surge towards the channel's upper border, however, could only be achieved if the 1.28 major level is retaken this week—a goal the Cable failed to achieve for quite some time now.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY to put 111.80 to the test



Even though the USD/JPY currency pair remained relatively unchanged on Friday, the bullish momentum seems to be intact. A new trend-line is supporting the pair's exchange rate, but is unlikely to last long due to its sharp angle. Nevertheless, the Buck is likely to appreciate again today, as there are no significant bearish signals. The recovery could well last until the 111.80 level is reached, where the monthly pivot point rests. Resistance here could be sufficient to reverse momentum, as the Greenback was forced to edge lower in a similar situation in the beginning of the month. A successful breach of the monthly PP, on the other hand, should open the door for a much stronger recovery, with the main target being the 114.40 handle, namely the May's high.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold passes strong support level



The bullion is set to fall below the 1,245 mark at some time during Monday's trading session. That is being indicated from a technical perspective by the fact that the commodity price has passed the strong support level of the monthly pivot point, which is located at the 1,253 mark. The support of the monthly PP held the bullion from falling below the 1,250 mark more than 40 hours. It is most likely that the commodity price will decline below the 1,245 level, as until that mark there are no notable support levels, which could hinder the fall. Meanwhile, it has to be noted that the commodity price is approaching the support of a long term pattern. The lower trend line of the dominant pattern on Monday morning was located just above the 1,240 mark.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD: channel pattern spotted



On Tuesday morning various additional pieces of information were spotted on the hourly chart for the EUR/USD currency pair. First of all, it is clear that the 1.1140 level is working as a support level, as it has held the line and forced a rebound already twice. Secondly, a short term descending channel has been spotted. In accordance with the channel the pair is set to decline in a 45 degree angle. Meanwhile, regarding the next twenty four hours, the common European currency is highly likely going to surge until it bounced off a resistance level either at 1.1175 or 1.1190. After a bounce off the pair would continue the decline down to the weekly S1, which is located at the 1.1121 level. However, traders should take into account the mentioned 1.1140 level.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD approaches critical point



Monday did not favour the Pound, as the Cable once again fell under the monthly S1. However, support was found near 1.2725, namely the ascending channel's support line. The Sterling risks breaking this trend-line if supply at the monthly S1 is strong enough for such an occurrence. Technical indicators support the possibility of the negative outcome today, but the British currency could still receive a boost and outperform the Greenback. Consequently, the GBP/USD pair would then be able to finally stabilise above the tough resistance cluster, which rests circa 1.2770. In turn, a close above this zone is likely to allow the Cable to continue recovering until all post-parliamentary election losses are erased.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY attempts to break through 111.80



As was anticipated, the US Dollar was able to outperform the Japanese Yen on Monday. Further gains could be limited by the 111.80 level, namely the monthly PP, which could result in the recently acquired up-trend to be broken. A successful surge above the mentioned pivot point is expected to prolong the given pair's bullish momentum and put the monthly R1 at 113.35 into perspective. Technical studies, however, are unable to confirm the possibility of such an outcome, thus, we should not rule out the bearish scenario—a break of the up-trend. Even though the pair is supported by a number of significant levels, downside risks persist amid political and fundamental uncertainties. Ultimately, the pair could slide back to 109.22 if the up-trend gets pierced today.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold finds support



On the hourly charts, which are drawn by the Dukascopy analysts, it can be observed that the weekly S1 at 1,243.59 has done its job in providing support to the yellow metal's price. However, the commodity price has still not reached the lower trend line of the long term ascending channel pattern. On Tuesday morning and throughout the rest of the day the trend line is set to remain below the 1,240 mark, which means that the price could still decline. In addition, the 55-hour SMA is approaching the bullion from the upside near the 1,250 mark. The simple moving average could provide the needed force to push the price lower. On the other hand the metal could continue to trade almost flat and also reach the mentioned trend line.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD reaches support cluster



As it was expected the common European currency continued its decline against the US Dollar in the previous 24 hours. However, on Wednesday morning a short lived climb of the Euro against the Greenback was expected. Due to the fact that the pair found support and rebounded against the combined support of the weekly S1 at 1.1120 and monthly PP at 1.1117 the rate began to surge. It is highly likely that the pair will reach for the upper trend line of the short term descending channel pattern. The trend line is strengthened by the resistance of the 55 and 100-hour SMAs. Although, the exact level, where the trend line could be reached is unclear. Afterwards it can be expected that the surge of the Buck will continue.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD attempts to recover from Tuesday's losses



Severe bearish momentum on Tuesday caused the GBP/USD currency pair to pierce the ascending channel's support line, with the support around 1.2624 limiting the losses. Due to the strong demand at this area, the Sterling has the opportunity to erase some of yesterday's losses, despite technical indicators in the shorter timeframes suggesting otherwise. The RSI specifically both in short and medium terms approached its bottom turnaround point, which implies a recovery could be due. Intraday gains should then be capped around 1.2720, where a relatively tough resistance on the hourly chart rests. On the other hand, in case more bearish momentum persists and the monthly S2 fails to hold the pair, the 1.2560 mark is the area to consider as another potential support.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY stuck between 109.22 and 111.80



The resistance encountered at 111.80, namely the monthly PP, was too tough for the USD/JPY pair to bare, resulting in the breach of the recently-acquired up-trend. Being that the pair kept trading between the monthly S1 and the monthly PP, the exchange rate should now keep falling towards the 109.22 area. Technical indicators somewhat support this possibility. No significant developments are expected this week, meaning that with the given rate of decline the most likely weekly close could be 110.00 major level. Moreover, there are no market movers present on the calendar, with the closest potential one scheduled only for June 26. Meanwhile, traders' sentiment also remains relatively neutral, as 55% of all open positions are long.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold reaches 55-hour SMA



The Tuesday morning forecast fulfilled itself only on Wednesday morning, as the US Dollar attempted to score additional gains during the second half of Tuesday's trading. However, on Wednesday morning the bullion reached the resistance of the 55-hour SMA near the 1,247.50 mark. Day traders were and will be watching this level of significance. The reason for that is that it could force the metal to make another attempt to pass the support at 1,243.59 level. On the other hand, if the resistance of the SMA is broken, the commodity price might surge above the 1,250 mark, as the closest resistance is located at the descending 100-hour SMA just above the mentioned level.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD breaks short term pattern



Although the recent surge of the EUR/USD currency exchange pair was mainly caused by the depreciation of the US Dollar, the push was strong enough to pass the resistance of a channel down pattern. The pattern dictated the pairs movements throughout June, and it was expected that it will continue to do so until the end of the month. However, after seven hours of continues assault, the upper trend line of the descending channel was broken. On Thursday morning the currency pair traded between the 100 and 200-hour SMAs, respectively, at 1.1162 and 1.1182. It is most likely that the rate will resume its decline, as it is expected in the medium term. However, market participants should watch out for short term surges.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD anchored around 1.27



As was anticipated, the Sterling done its best to erase most of Tuesday’s losses yesterday, but was still unable to fully reclaim the 1.27 level, which resulted in a close 30 pips lower. The Cable is now expected to maintain trade between the monthly S2 and the monthly S1, with the exchange rate mostly gravitating towards the 1.2750 area. Consequently, another bullish development today would confirm this scenario, even though some technical indicators suggest otherwise. Furthermore, the GBP/USD currency pair has been sliding down for five weeks in a row now, which only adds fuel to the already bearish ‘fire’. A possible trend-line at 1.2730 could also limit today’s gains should they occur. In case bears manage to prevail, the pair is unlikely to drop far below the monthly S2 or the 1.26 major level.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY continues to edge lower



The USD/JPY pair’s attempts to recover were limited by the descending channel’s resistance line. The exchange rate bounced back from this down-trend and is now expected to keep moving lower. The channel’s lower boundary is located only near 108.00, meaning that the Greenback has a lot of room to keep declining. Furthermore, the monthly S1 at 109.22 is a strong support, which could prevent the given pair from falling deeper down. Technical indicators, however, are unable to confirm the possibility of the negative outcome today, as they are giving mixed signals in all timeframes. No significant drops are likely to occur by the end of the week, as there are no scheduled fundamental events that could have such a bearish impact on the US Dollar. Price is expected to close near 110.65 today.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold trades above 1,250 mark



On Thursday morning the yellow metal traded above the monthly pivot point, which is located at the 1,253 mark. The bullion managed to surge during the early hours of June 22 due to the fundamental events in the US. Due to the fact that the commodity price was located above the notable level of significance, it can be expected that the surge of the metal’s price will continue. The next level of resistance, that gold faces it the 200-hour SMA, which during the early hours of the day’s trading was located at the 1,257.20 mark. However, it could be observed that the pivot point was not clearly left behind, as the yellow metal’s price had fluctuated in limbo around it for six consecutive hours.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD reveals new pattern



The EUR/USD currency exchange rate did not bounce off the resistance of the 200-hour SMA, as it was forecasted on Thursday. However, the pair began a decline without the help of the resistance level. Moreover, by the end of the day’s trading session the surge of the Euro against the US Dollar was resumed. Due to that reason a more in-depth analysis was done. As a result of the closer look, a short term ascending channel pattern was mapped. Although in accordance with the channel the pair should surge at least to the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1188 mark, it is highly possible that the 200-hour SMA, which on Friday was located at the 1.1176 level, will force the currency pair to change its direction sooner than expected.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD points to weakness



During the last trading session, the Sterling demonstrated solid appreciation against the US Dollar, crossing the 20– and 100-hour SMAS along the way. The pair has approached a short-term down-trend near the 1.2710 mark, reinforced by the 200-hour SMA and the 23.6% Fibo at 1.2717 and 1.2720, respectively. The pair has been trading below the given SMA for most of the down-trend, suggesting that this may serve as a stopping point in this session, as well. Technical indicators are generally bearish, demonstrating that the down-trend may, in turn, be respected. Thus, it is likely that the Pound tests the 1.2717 level prior to edging lower mid-day. The subsequent fall might be stopped by the 55-day SMA located circa 1.2660. On the contrary, an upward breakout would put the monthly S1 at 1.2758 to the test.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY tests channel boundary once more



Despite being pressured to the downside early Thursday, USD/JPY made a U-turn and moved closer the upper channel boundary. The given level, however, was not reached, allowing some room for further appreciation up to 111.42. Yesterday’s trading session resulted in a death cross of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, thus flashing bearish signals. Other technical indicators likewise support a possible fall down to the 111.05/10 territory. As no significant fundamental events are scheduled for today, the pair may continue its movement sideways, setting the aforementioned 111.42 and 111.05 as a possible trading range. In case of strong upward risks, the US Dollar should cap at the 111.80 mark where the monthly PP is located.